Takes and trash talk from both ALL sides of the NHL's most obscure PATHETIC* rivalry

* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ducks Gameday—Even strength bizarro stats

Colorado Avalanche (30-25-5, t-10th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (33-23-7, t-3rd in west)

The Ducks have gone 6-1 in the sevengames since Teemu's return, and have outscored opponents 23-11. Just for fun, let's take a look at the players' even-strength results over those seven games (pay attention, there's a surprise at the end):



C. Perry






R. Getzlaf






R. Niedermayer






M. Schneider






R. Carter






T. Moen






K. Huskins






J. Giguere






S. O’Donnell






C. Pronger






T. Marchant






C. Kunitz






D. Weight






B. May






F. Beauchemin






T. Bertuzzi






J. Hiller






S. Niedermayer






B. Sutherby






G. Parros






T. Selanne






S. Pahlsson






Whoa, I'm just as stunned as anybody. Selanne, last year's scoring leader, has the worst offensive numbers for anyone not named Sutherby, Parros, or Pahlsson, whereas Sammy, last year's Selke guy, has the worst defensive numbers of anyone?! Both Teemu and Sammy, of course, are coming off significant time off (plus both were dinged for the empty-netter against vs. Dallas), so expect these numbers to improve. But it did catch me off-guard; they have inspired better play than they've exhibited themselves. What the table doesn't tell you is that Teemu has the best power play rate on the team over those seven games, and that Pahlsson has the worst penalty kill rate on the team (he tends to get dinged for being the lone forward on 3-on-5s, though).

Who's benefitted the most from Selanne's return? I guess you have to say Ryan Carter. I don't know if Selanne's giving Carter some free pointers in practice, but after not scoring a goal in his first 27 games this season, Carter suddenly has 4 goals in the last 5 games.

Two things I'm in favor of: (1) Bertuzzi with Getzlaf and Perry, leaving Kunitz with Selanne. Bertuzzi's biggest problem is his refusal to shoot the puck, and it drives me nuts what chances he's been passing up in Selanne-created space. Kunitz has no such qualms about using open space, and should get better results regardless of centerman. (2) Brian Sutherby, especially on the penalty kill. I like to make fun of Sutherby (Finny's new boy), because it took him 25 games to get an assist, but it hasn't mattered too much. He's got good energy for that fourth line, and is used sparingly enough to be rested for shorthanded situations. I never thought anyone was going to cut into the Pahlsson-Rob-Moen-Marchant forward PK minutes this year, but both Sutherby and Carter have made a good case for themselves.

Anyways, as I noted before, I'll be in the Row B seats tonight, wearing my lucky green shirt and drinking with the locals. Feel free to stop by and say hi, or maybe it'd be easier to find me outside at intermission (non-Katella side).

Prediction: In both meetings thus far, the Ducks have come away with 2-1 victories, but I'm thinking tonight will be a wild one. Ducks 3, Avs 2. Goals by Schneider, Pahlsson, and the scoring machine Ryan Carter.

Go Ducks.


Earl Sleek said...

Aw crap. I just realized how effed up this whole thing is--Selanne came back 7 games ago, not 6, and he, Bertuzzi, and Weight all got a plus while put together on the Island.

Sorry, if I find time this morning I'll try to re-do that darn table. Otherwise, it represents the last six games just after Teemu returned.


Earl Sleek said...

OK, I've updated the table and the post itself to reflect the last seven games (not the last six as I had posted earlier). Still Selanne and Pahlsson are the only two negative players over that stretch, oddly enough.

I don't know why I messed this up last night; let's call it last-week-of-work sloppiness.

spade-in-victorhell said...

im hoping carter can overcome this newfound pressure he has on him now...usually when people start getting excited about a duck...they nosedive (bochenski,weight to name a few)...knock on wood everyone...

i know earl doesnt give a shit..btu the fact carter wins face-offs like his life depends on it...i think will be a boon come playoffs...AND AND....earl...just 4 u...HE LOVES TO SHOOT!!!

Bryan said...

While I agree that Weight doesnt shoot, I don't agree on Bertuzzi. He seems to show alot. I think its more than Selanne thrives with the speed of Kunitz and a McDonaldlike forward. And Carter is alot closer to that than Bert or Weight. There may be pressure to insert Weight into the top 2 when he returns but the reality is that Weight is old and slow and not a major point producer like he used to be. If I recall correctly he was Carolina's 3rd or maybe even 4th line center when they won the cup, course they had a lot of depth up middle with Cullen, Brindamour and Stahl(I think he plays center). I'm not sure what my point is now, but I like the top 2 lines as they are now. Unless Carter falters. Or unless someone like Hossa arrives. Then I'd be willing to reevaluate.

Earl Sleek said...

Well, if Bertuzzi loves to shoot, he's not really showing it in the stats. Since the turn of the year, Bertuzzi has played 22 games and generated 36 shots (1.64 per game). Only on three occasions this calendar year has he put more than 2 shots on goal in a game.

Weight's worse, btw. Same timeframe, he's put 24 shots on goal in 18 games (1.33 per game). He's also had three more-than-2-shot games.

Selanne in his 7 games has 20 shots (2.85 per game).

And really, I wasn't even referencing these numbers when I wrote that about Bertuzzi--it's obvious enough on the eyes. Too many times he's in love with the extra skill-play pass, but he needs to throw a few pucks on the net Kunitz-sytle, I think, to keep goalies and defenses honest. Especially when Teemu's speed creates space.

Oh, and I'm not sure I'm thinking of Carter as a long-term 2nd line fixture. 4 goals in 5 games is nice, but it's clearly an outlier stretch of games. It could happen that he keeps the spot, but I wouldn't be betting a lot on it.

they nosedive (bochenski,weight to name a few)...

I still have no idea when Bochenski took this famous nosedive. The only time he struggled, I thought, was pretty much when the rest of the team sucked. I've generally liked his play in most every game he's been in.

Just My Type said...

Carter said in an interview at Sunday's game that he has always scored more later in the season. He said throughout his career, he's had trouble putting up points in the fall. After Christmas, things seem to gel and he finds his points. He didn't seem to know why it happens, just that it always does.

Morbo said...

I'm with Earl, I hate how Bertuzzi is always looking to pass first. I'm not sure why, because when he was with Vancouver, he avg 200 shots a year, with 243 being the high in 02-03.

If he had played in all 82 games this yr, he would be on pace for about 140 this year. Not awful, but for a first line power forward, that's way too low. For comparison, Perry is already at 181 shots this year, on pace for 235.

I think a lot of Bertuzzi's former high shot totals could be contributed to the type of hard charging/camp out front goals he used to score. Now he's become much more of a perimeter player. I don't know if it's the post effects of the concussion, or maybe just the whole Moore incident, but it seems he is not as willing to drive to the net.

Hazy made a great point in the game @ the Avs couple weeks ago. He showed replay after replay of the guys (including Bert) skating past the net on rebounds, instead of stopping about 2 feet in front of the crease.

A lot of Ducks fans, (me included) felt Penner's problem was that he was too soft to become a true power forward. I think I see lot of the same in Bertuzzi. Great at puck possession and cycling, but his first thought isn't "drive to the net and shoot".

Finny said...

I can officially die a happy woman now that I have an Earl Sleek stamp of approval on my new boy Brian Sutherby...

& I will be seeing you down @ the HC, Sleek.

What'd you think of that time when Carlyle put Sudsy out there on the PP?! He was out there with Pears... that was kind of crazy... lol.

VeryProudofYa said...

I can't recall seeing such an insane quantity of missed shots in a while.

But hey, ducks win, sharks lose, and the stars lose in heartbreaking fashion.

I'd say it was a good night.

Earl Sleek said...

But hey, ducks win, sharks lose, and the stars lose in heartbreaking fashion.

Good list, but you forgot 'Sleek get mind-blowingly drunk'.


The Swiss guy said...

:) earl, could you post the Faceoff-% of the Ducks players in one of your next posts...?

Earl Sleek said...

Faceoffs, eh? Well, just for kicks here's the faceoff numbers over the seven-game stretch that is reflected in the table above (sorted by faceoff wins)

Carter: 52-37 (58%)
Getzlaf: 49-50 (49%)
Pahlsson: 31-26 (54%)
Marchant: 16-31 (34%)
Sutherby: 15-15 (50%)
Weight: 9-10 (47%)
Selanne: 9-7 (56%)
Bertuzzi: 6-3 (67%)
Rob N: 1-4 (20%)
Moen: 1-1 (50%)

May, Parros, Kunitz, and Pronger (!) are a combined 0-7.

spade-in-victorhell said...

i was surprised getzlaf wasnt more like 25% I cant remember him ever winning a faceoff

I guess my theory is true...everyone starts jerking off about a duck...then he nosedives...well carter didnt nosedive...but he got hurt...son of a bitch....

we won last nite...but shit..it didnt feel like it...

VeryProudofYa said...

and it turns out it carter his wrist. When I saw the replays I thought his elbow or something knocked the little photographer's shutter off of the glass. I had no idea his whole hand went in there.

This is bad news for pretty much everyone, because nobody wants marchant on the second line.


Anonymous said...

Well, veryproudofya, Marchant's got a bruised shoulder as well. And since the Ducks recalled young Andrew Ebbett from Portland, I'll have to take a wild guess and say he might be the second line center.

And Earl. Yet ANOTHER prediction came true. I think you pulled a back-to-the-future type of deal and grabbed an Almanac from the future, came back here, and posting all the results in your prediction. There IS no other explanation...

Earl Sleek said...

Heh, if only I could read the names of the scorers in my future almanac. It's kind of blurry.