Brian Burke Week Part 1: Sleek defends three "bad" moves

Hey, everybody! Welcome to Burke Week, where I'll take a scattered look back on what I take to be Brian Burke's legacy in Anaheim. I do have a lot to say about the guy, and rather than cram it all into one post I thought I'd break it into semi-coherent parts throughout the week.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad. For better or worse, opposing fans love to criticize Brian Burke's management style, and at times, the desire to call out Burke for a "bad" move ignores a lot of important context. Burke's first few years, of course, are now left alone because the Ducks won a cup, but since then it seems that critics are all-too-ready to point out where Burke has made his supposed mistakes.

There's really two things to keep in mind when discussing some of these debatable moves, though: (1) Thanks to salary cap mechanics, it's always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to keep a championship team together. I hold little expectation that any cup-winning roster could or should be fully retained -- there's always got to be adaptation and prioritization after a team experiences success. (2) Behind every one of these moves is the decision to allow Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to semi-retire. I'll certainly talk more about this later, but basically if you disagree on giving players that freedom (and would rather Burke forced retirement on them), then probably you won't agree with the validity of these moves, but it is important to understand Burke's underlying motivation.

Lastly, I don't want to overstate things in this post -- I'm not saying that these moves were ideal, by any means. My main point is that they are more tolerable to me than people suggest -- I'm not angry with Burke for making them, at any rate.

1. Waiving Ilya Bryzgalov

Sleek's initial take: It seems absolutely amazing to me that a goaltender with the lowball salary and highball postseason success couldn't be traded in today's league, but I've had low expectations ever since the seemingly poor returns for Tomas Vokoun or Vesa Toskala last summer. As much as it might pain rival fans to admit it, I think the departure of Bryzgalov has very little to do with Scott and Teemu, and really has more to do with Bryzgalov trying to be a #1 and Hiller being promoted to the big leagues.

On paper this sounds horrible, because Breezy was definitely a proven playoff performer, given away to a divisional rival for free. And generally, I’m not in favor of losing assets for nothing. However, you also have to consider the Ducks were locked into J.S. Giguere for four years (including a no-movement clause), and had signed a promising netminder in Jonas Hiller as well. Not only was Breezy prevented from upward movement in the organization, but he was even in the youngster’s way, plus he was due for a raise the next summer. Burke claims that the move was done for Bryzgalov’s benefit, and it’s tough to disbelieve him on that statement, and for sure the goalie-trade market was thin (that’s the inherent irony in goalie salaries: they are no doubt the most important player on the ice, yet there are more than 60 players who could play in the NHL). So Burke ensured that Breezy gets picked up by a bottom team while publicly keeping his word to his netminder – there’s definitely payoff in being a “player first” GM like that, and while there was no trade return, you have to remember that Hiller cost the Ducks nothing either. It seems a relative wash to me, with some good PR on the side.

2. Trading Andy McDonald to St. Louis for Doug Weight

Sleek's initial take: Of course, it's sort of a mistake to look at this just as a McDonald-for-Weight trade, as context is huge for this deal. In return for trading away Andy Mac, the Ducks get Doug Weight, the right to play Scott Niedermayer, the right to keep Mathieu Schneider, and the possibility to sign Teemu Selanne. Even if DeadWeight turns out to be a bust, there's still a lot of trade return there.

Yes, this was salary-necessitated, and yes, I’d rather have Andy Mac than Doug Weight on my team any day. Still, this needs context more than anything. As my quote above suggests, it wasn’t just a one-for-one trade; Andy McDonald was traded for Doug Weight + the tag space to keep Mathieu Schneider + the room to welcome back Scott Niedermayer + the room to later sign Teemu Selanne. The salary side sucked, I guess, but the Ducks by the end of that season had more than $24 million tied into three defensemen plus a goalie – a more expensive team than they could have afforded for a full season. As for success, yeah, there was no Stanley Cup, but in the 48 games after the McDonald/Weight trade (Scotty's return), the Ducks dropped nearly a full goal-against-per-game, and played on a pace that would have won them the President’s Trophy and the Jennings Trophy. Hard to be overly critical of a trade that transformed a .500 team into a top-tier contender.

3. Signing Mathieu Schneider

Sleek's initial take: Brian Burke certainly acted as if Niedermayer's retirement is a sure thing. Think about this: if Scott were to play his contract next year, that would mean that the Ducks' goalie and top four defensemen would cost roughly $26 M next year; that's more than half the salary cap. And then the logical move, oddly enough, would probably be to trade away the newly-signed Schneider.

It’s really tough for me to get angry with Burke for this signing, as it seemed a logical reaction to Scott Niedermayer’s effective retirement. It didn’t pan out, obviously, and did put the Ducks in a heck of a salary cap crunch at the end of last summer, but I think the signing made sense in its context and Schneidermayer certainly knew what a potential salary mess he was getting himself into. What clouds this issue somewhat is the poor start that Schneider has had in Atlanta -- certainly his numbers suggest that he is washed up. However, I'd guess that he's being mis-used on the Thrashers; for the past few seasons Schneider has been an extremely effective weapon in easy minutes, playing behind a Nick Lidstrom or a Chris Pronger. In Anaheim, Schneider certainly had a solid year: At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. While certainly the team would have been easier to manage last season without Schneider's salary on the books, Burke saw a gaping hole on his blueline and reacted to it. In retrospect, the signing proved excessive, but at the time when Niedermayer's retirement seemed believable enough, I think Burke got a decent replacement option off the UFA market, and that's not something I'll spend too much time criticizing.

So there you have it, three moves that I don't criticize Burke for (at least, not to the extent that others do). Agree or disagree with my assessments, or do you have another example of your own? Feel free to leave it in the comments. Then stay tuned for Burke Week Part II (possibly tomorrow?), where I'll point out some moves where I am more critical on Burke's decision-making.

Go Ducks.

Mmm... Doughnuts

Drew Doughty played 27 minutes tonight.

Also:

Sean O'Donnell: 0 G, 3 A, +4, 12 PIM

Mathieu Schneider: 1 G, 3 A, -11, 14 PIM

Also:

Kyle Quincey: 11 Games, 2 G, 6 A, Even, 6 PIM

Rob Blake: 17 Games, 2 G, 7 A, -2, 24 PIM


Well played, Lombardi.

Crisis Averted! Thoughts on the Schneidermayer Trade

At long last, Mathieu Schneider has been traded. A mere fifteen months since he signed on with the Ducks, he was shipped off to Atlanta yesterday afternoon in exchange for Ken Klee and a few bodies.

To be fair, it's been an eventful fifteen months for the Ducks, thanks to a steady pattern of un-retirement from Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. Anyways, here's some things I feel should be pointed out about the trade.

1. It's important to understand: Mathieu Schneider was not a failure for the Ducks, and I'm not convinced he's overpaid. I think he'll have a good year in Atlanta. With the recent waiving of Schneider and the fact that 29 teams refused to pick him up for free, I think there's been a lot of misconception that "Schneider has lost it" or that "he's grossly overpaid". Those statements could certainly be applied earlier in the summer to Todd Bertuzzi, but I think in Schneider's case they're off-base.

When Scott returned to the Ducks lineup in December, Coach Carlyle resumed his pattern of splitting all the important even-strength minutes to his two main pairings: Niedermayer-Beauchemin and Pronger-O'Donnell. Schneider was left to play easy Dipenta-minutes with Kent Huskins, plus was given some top power play time. Pretty ripe minutes for an offensive talent like Schneider, and there's not much bad to say about his overall results. At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. Schneider outscored his opposition like crazy, even if it was done in fairly easy ice time. If he can get those sort of sweet minutes on Atlanta, I don't really see why he can't get similarly good results this year.

Schneider's waiving and trading was a function of salary cap math, not his play on the ice. With $13M at Niedermayer and Pronger, $7.3M at Giguere and Hiller, $10+M at Getzlaf and Perry, the Ducks couldn't afford the luxury of having Schneider play easy bottom-pairing minutes (not when a half-million dollar guy could do it a la Dipenta). Sure, Schneider did have a miserable 6-game playoffs, but that's true of a lot of Ducks, and I'd consider his regular season more indicative of his ability.

One other area Schneider could have improved last year was in the actual function of replacing Niedermayer -- Schneider ended up missing nearly half the games that Niedermayer sat out because of an ankle injury. Still, if you want to see some measure of Schneider's impact, the 15 pre-Niedermayer games he missed the Ducks had a 9.9% power play effectiveness, and the 19 pre-Niedermayer games that Schneider played in the power play jumped to 21.6%.

Is Schneider overpaid? I guess that depends on how he's used and who he's compared against. If I had a choice of landing 1 year of Schneider at $5.6M, 8 years of Brian Campbell at $7.1M, or 6 years of Wade Redden at $6.5 M, I'd probably take the first option. He may not be as capable or as sturdy, but it's a one-year gamble for lesser money, and he comes with a better shot (at least he scored more goals than the other two). Basically, if the Ducks had the money, I'd be all over keeping Schneider next year.

2. That said, I understand some of the reasons GMs passed on Schneider on waivers a week ago.

By not allowing Brian Burke an easy out to his over-the-salary-cap conundrum, GMs could not only stick it to Burke but force him to sweeten the Schneider deal with additional assets. GMs were playing coy; the ones at the front of the waiver list (generally the teams with cap room) imagined that they could wait for Schneider's re-entry waivers and nab the defender for half his salary. There was also talk of forcing Burke to throw in Bobby Ryan or a valued draft pick to make the deal even sweeter.

Basically, Burke was in a shitty position and everyone knew it. He had to unload Schneider before the North American season started, and so long as rival GMs could avoid accommodating that, the price for Schneider would be forcibly lowered. Somebody was going to get the privelege of fleecing Brian Burke in a trade, and by ignoring Schneider on waivers, GMs could improve the chances that they would be the ones to get that opportunity.

The main problem that rival GMs had, though, was that they had to snub Burke's trade requests collectively in order to drive Schneider's price down, but in the end only one of the clubs was actually going to reap the benefit of this collective action. It became a bit of a game theory exercise, where clubs had to weigh the benefits of forcing Burke's hand with the likelihood that they could individually collect on that pressure. For his part, Burke played his hand brilliantly, never crying poor or crying foul, but using that "don't let me give Schneider to somebody else" angle to get decent value back for the cap-necessitated move.

3. Trade assessment: thumbs way up, but there's probably a Part 2 coming. I have to admit, the Schneider outcome scared me a good deal these past few weeks, as the number of trade suitors dwindled down to a handful while the need to move Schneider's salary increased. It was tough to guess what Burke might need to do in order to move the salary, and talks of dropping Bobby Ryan or future assets to solve a short-term problem wasn't a comforting notion at all.

The fact that Burke managed to move Schneider without mortgaging the future means that by my eye, this trade is a whopping success. The Ducks did pick up some $1.8M in salary with Ken Klee and Brad Larsen, but neither is signed beyond this year so it's not even a long-term repercussion.

While this move does put the Ducks under the salary cap ceiling, there is still likely another salary-shedding move yet to come in order to fit in the Finnish Flash. Teemu Selanne remains unsigned, and he's even talking about the possibility of wanting a two-year deal from the Ducks. While normally I'd advise against such a contract for a player over 35, especially in the wake of the issues of Schneider's similar situation, in this case I'm probably for gambling on Teemu. Really the main motivator for me is cheapness -- by salary cap law Selanne will have to sign a bargain contract in order to fit on this year's roster, maybe less than a million, and if he's willing to extend that minimal salary another year, why that's hardly a gamble at all. If the Ducks move enough salary, however, that Teemu gets signed for something like $2M, at that point I'm more in favor of doing 1-year deals for Teemu.

At any rate, I don't really know what this next move will be. There seems enough movable bodies among the forwards and defensemen now that there's lots of possibilities. Still, it's important to note that the Schneider trade has brought the Ducks out of crisis mode, and for that I'm excited. It's rare that a salary dump like this one can be so well-received in both participating cities, but in this case I think it's warranted. The Thrashers have landed themselves a legitimate scoring threat on the blueline, and the Ducks have gained cap compliance without selling out the future. Great work, Brian Burke. If you ever decide not to move to Toronto, I'll support extending your tenure.

Go Ducks.

Schneider to Atlanta

The Atlanta Thrashers have acquired defenseman Mathieu Schneider from the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Ken Klee, forward Brad Larsen and a minor-league prospect. LINK.

Per NHLNumbers, Ken Klee will make $1.25 million this coming year, and Brad Larsen will make $560k (cap hit $535k). Klee will be a UFA next summer; Larsen will be an RFA.

More details from the OC Register's Dan Wood. Discuss, and I'll write something later.

Ducks put Schneidermayer on Waivers

Well, so much for the BoC Collaboration. Instead of waiting any longer for a trade partner, it appears that Mathieu Schneider is headed the way of the Bryzgalov:

The Anaheim Ducks, needing to trim payroll, have placed defenseman Mathieu Schneider on waivers with the expectation that a team will claim him and $5.75 million salary for this season.

Once they move Schneider off the books, the Ducks are expected to re-sign Teemu Selanne.

I don't really have any problem with this move, as I have been expecting very little in return for the productive Schneider. Basically, the ability to get under the salary cap and to bring back the Finnish Flash is plenty of return for me.

I'm in quite the hustle this morning, so this is a hasty post (note the previously-posted image), but I'll put together something more once he's claimed (if he's claimed, I guess). Still, feel free to react to the move in the comments.

Go Ducks.

[EDIT, 1 PM: As usual, the OC Register's Dan Wood provides the best perspective on the situation and its possible outcomes.]

[EDIT, 3:30 PM: Looks like the Kings are going to pass. Probably because it costs money.]

[EDIT, 4:30 PM: Moving away from MSM blogs (side gripe: I guess I should comment anonymously at these sites; both the OC Register and Inside the Kings have removed my comments presumably because I write for BoC. Hooray for freedom!), The Falconer makes a numbers-driven case for why the Thrashers should pick up Schneider.]

[EDIT, 9:30 AM: Back to Dan Wood. 29 teams passed and Schneider cleared waivers. On to Plan B!]

Anaheim's All-Time Team: the 5th and 6th Defensemen

Well, I was happy enough with the variety of responses I got from my search for a #1 center for the all-time Anaheim Sometimes-Mighty Ducks of Anaheim that I think I'll continue this "ask the audience" theme before publishing my own roster (note: feel free to continue voting on centermen). Today's theme: third-pairing defensemen.

I won't spend much time justifying my picks for the top-four blueliners just yet (that will come with the unveiling), but just know that Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Fredrik Olausson, and Oleg Tverdovsky have all been pre-qualified, leaving just two slots to fill. I've narrowed the field down to eleven candidates, whom I'll list chronologically, but if you feel I've slighted anyone feel free to write in your own answer (c'mon, Trnka and Huskins fans). Which two players deserve a spot on Anaheim All-Time Team's blueline? Here we go!

Bobby Dollas (1993-94 to 1997-98)
305 gp, 28-61-89, +31

I'll have to admit; I was a fledgling fan back in Bobby Dollas' heyday, and my memory is sort of shoddy to the point where I only remember a blend of Dollas and Karpa. But hey, actual remembering isn't a requirement for the All-Time team, and Dollas was an original mainstay. I was shocked at his +31 career plus-minus for Anaheim, which is best on this list, as the old-school Mighty Duck teams weren't much to brag about.

Dave Karpa (1994-95 to 1997-98)
245 gp, 7-43-50, +5

See above. I believe Karpa played hockey in much more a tripod-fashion than did Dollas, but I can't even say that with 100% certainty. Still, you should give some credit to the old-school guard; they didn't have nearly the quality of linemates as recent Ducks players have enjoyed. If anyone wants to do justice to the memories of Dollas and Karpa, feel free.

Dmitri Mironov (1996-97 to 1997-98)
128 gp, 18-64-82, +13

Mironov was a short-term Duck, but he was productive (his .641 points-per-game is tops on this list). Not only a quality regular-season performer, but Dmitri also posted a point-per-game in Anaheim's first playoffs in 1997 (1-10-11 in 11 games). Strangely, I was never that enamored with Mironov's game -- he never seemed that dominant and I definitely don't recall being upset when he left the team. Again, though, this was the early days of Sleek the hockey fan.

Ruslan Salei (1996-97 to 2005-06)
594 gp, 26-79-105, -3

Ah, now we're getting more into my memory's wheelhouse. "Salei of Game" or "Cirque du Salei" was a mainstay for a decade on the Anaheim blueline, and his 594 regular season games is tops of all Anaheim defensemen. He was tough, dirty, and at times had above-average hockey sense, though there was always the sense he had the tools to be even better. Still, when the Ducks were down 3 games to 2 to Calgary in the 1st round of the 2006 playoffs, I thought that Salei more than anyone really elevated his play to help the team advance. Plus he's from Belarus.

Niclas Havelid (1999-00 to 2003-04)
310 gp, 24-61-85, -42

Ah, Havelid, the Swedish component of the 2003 miracle blueline. Havelid has pretty strong counting numbers (85 ANA points is third-best on this list), but man that minus-42 rating really stands out, doesn't it? At least the guy got an even rating in the 2003 playoff run. I'm not sure that Havelid ultimately belongs on this list, but in case there are any Swedish die-hards he's in the running.

Vitaly Vishnevski (1999-00 to 2005-06)
416 gp, 11-37-48, -11

Vish-dog in da house! I'm way too enamored with Vishnevski to give an unbiased description here, but despite his inability to score (by far the worst scoring rate on the list), Vish-dog is still second-all-time in games played by an Anaheim defenseman. His real skill isn't so much about scoring anyway, but more about creating opportunities to murder people on the ice. Sure his out-of-position wandering backfires, and sure he departed under suspect circumstances (traded right after arbitration), but he is by definition a third-pairing kind of guy, and unlike anyone else on this list, I do own a Vishnevski jersey.

Keith Carney (2001-02 to 2005-06)
271 gp, 13-48-61, +30

Damn, "Carney Asada" was an awesome defenseman for the Ducks -- a steady Eddie who was as vital to the 2003 cup run as anybody not named Giguere. He came to the team as a veteran, and seemingly was always one bad turn away from never standing up again, but he was a tough battler and a smart blueliner. Carney's offensive talents were average at best, but I'll never forget the pass he made to Rucchin to cement the 2003 Wings sweep -- the only time ever I've seen Carney behind an opponent's net.

Sandis Ozolinsh (2002-03 to 2005-06)
84 gp, 13-27-40, -1

Ozos is another short-timer, but probably represents Anaheim's best ever mid-season pickup on the blueline. While Sandis is well-known for his offensive skills and defensive shortcomings, I actually found him to be respectable on both ends of the rink, at least during his 2003 season. Consider: he was a team-best plus-8 in the 2003 playoffs, and was on the ice for all four of Anaheim's game-winning goals in the 2003 series against Dallas (all of which came after the 58-minute mark of the game). That's pretty damn clutch, and Ozos was pretty special to watch. Counting against Ozos? Everything after the 2003 cup finals.

Francois Beauchemin (2005-06 to current)
214 gp, 17-66-83, +6

I'm not sure how well to rate Beauchemin in this exercise, as Frenchie has yet to show much in the category of "playing without Scott Niedermayer". Still, the guy was a gem in 2006 and has been a steady enough player the last two seasons, and his early playoff heroics (punching out Iginla in Calgary and shouldering Brunette in G1 of the COL series) are legendary. I don't know where Ducks fans sit on Frenchie -- I've met fans who absolutely love him and fans who can't stand him (honestly, I don't really understand either side). Still, his 66 Anaheim assists ranks second on this list.

Sean O'Donnell (2005-06 to current)
182 gp, 5-24-29, +21

Another sheer wall of steadiness who also has spent some time piggybacking on a former Norris trophy winner, O'Donnell has been a great shut-down minute-eater for the Ducks, especially once paired with Pronger in 2006. O'Donnell is second-worst to Vishnevski in terms of offense, but that's not his game. In fact, I've never seen a defenseman throw so many pucks intentionally wide of the net to avoid opposing shot-blockers. But that's O'Donnell: safe and solid, and that is a huge contribution when facing the opponents' best. I'm not considering salary on this all-time team, but I was super-impressed when UFA O'Donnell, right after winning the Stanley Cup, re-signed with the Ducks for a discount. That's a team player, right there.

Mathieu Schneider (2007-08)
65 gp, 12-27-39, +22

Look, just because we're in the process of kicking Schneider's salary off the team, that doesn't mean the guy isn't eligible for all-time consideration. I mean, he did have a quality season playing easy minutes, and even picked up a few Norris votes. In terms of skillset, Schneider might be the best on this list, especially if we're talking about shooting. However, he most likely won't have been on the Ducks for very long, and he did have a rather invisible playoff series against Dallas (his only point of the series was a meaningless goal in the last 8 seconds of G4), but will that cost him a spot on the all-time squad?

-----------------------------------
So there's my eleven candidates with only two slots to fill.

Who gets your votes? Are you in favor of short-term production (Mironov, Ozolinsh, Schneider), steady stay-at-homes (Carney, O'Donnell), long-serving serviceable d-men (Salei, Vishnevski), old-school types (Dollas, Karpa), unheralded gems (Havelid, Beauchemin), or a mix of the above? There's no wrong answers; I'm just looking for preference, really.

I don't think I've done this list as much justice as I did with the centermen, but this is just Anaheim All-Time Decision #2 (I've still got two more coming). As before, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments: which two defensemen deserve the all-time third pairing? If you want, you can also share who was a close runner-up. You don't even have to be a Ducks fan to chime in -- all are welcome.

Go Ducks.

Flashback Part 2: Sleek digs up an Omen

(This is Part 2 of my "things I found when packing up for a move" series. Part 1 is here.)

You know, my life isn't all about going to Ducks games and then drawing cartoons about them. On occasion, I've even been known to attend a Kings game every now and again. It's sort of a fun outing, as I don't have to worry about any real rooting interest, and hey, it's something I can't see on Versus (Zing!).

In my moving frenzy, I found this 8 1/2 x 11 handout from one such game that Hockey Reference.com has helped me timestamp: October 16, 2001. And guess who was the Kings' coverboy for the handout--doesn't he just look swell?

It's not Reebok wind-resistant, but not a bad look!
It seems a bit odd that this game memento would sit in the depths of my closet from 2001 until a week ago. I think this has to mean something other than "clean your closet more, you idiot". It's a sign, fate's version of an e1, and another bit of momentum for the BoC Collaboration.

Just for nostalgic fun, here's a look at some old-timey rosters printed on the back:


Current Kings: zero.
They should have kept that Heinze #57 gag running longer.


Current Capitals: zero.
But look! Sutherby!
I can't help thinking it would really facilitate a trade if Schneider had an old teammate to reunite with in L.A.

Does anybody have Modry's phone number?

BoC Collaboration Gains a New Friend

Mathieu Schneider's agent is on board! It's building, folks, like some kind of building being built.

[SLEEK EDIT: Also relevant, after taking two weeks off with some sort of bullshit "I'm moving" excuse, I got back to PuckTooning! Conveniently, the subject is also about breaking up with Schneider.]

Steve Montador is a Duck

According to Hockeybuzz Steve Montador signed a $900k contract. Montador is a defenseman, who recently played for Florida.

This move is expected to be a sure sign Schneider will be moved.

Anybody know anything about Montador?

BoC United: Schneider for Tukonen

The Los Angeles Kings need a leader. Right now they're deplorable on defense and need someone to help muster their woeful defensive unit into something resembling a fighting force. They need a leader on the power play, preferably left-handed. Most importantly, they need a solid, dependable player who can show this young team how to act and perform in the NHL. Oh, and he should be Jewish.

Not him. He's a Muslim Christian, not a Jew.

The Anaheim Ducks need space. They're right up against the cap and they need room for Teemu Selanne. They have a plethora of defenseman and can move one of them for the requisite cap space. They need to find a team that has plenty of cap space and needs a defenseman. They can't take too much salary back in return, so hopefully that team will have plenty of prospects or picks next year to trade. The Ducks have one more good run in them; they just need another team to help them out.


Friends, I come before you as a Ducks hater from before the team took the ice. I've mocked, ridiculed, blasphemed and slandered the Ducks for as long as I've known the word "gaytarded." But it's foolish pride to let one's own biases get in the way of what's good for the franchise, and what we have here is a good opportunity. The Kings need a veteran defenseman, the Ducks need cap space. Why shouldn't the two teams help on another? Earl, Ken, and I have discussed this and we have come to the same conclusion: the Ducks should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen.


Ducks fans might feel this deal is a little one-sided. ("Why should we trade a good defenseman for some guy and also I'm a douche bag?") First off, assholes, the Ducks aren't really dealing from a position of strength; teams know that the Ducks are severely hindered if they don't move some salary around. Plus, you can't really afford to get a roster player in return because you need the space, so it's pretty much just down to prospects. Secondly, Tukonen is a unique guy. He was drafted 11th overall in 2004 but has been done in by injuries and under-performance so far. He needs a fresh start with another team; the Kings have always had an expectation that he'll become a superstar, but with another team he can focus on becoming a solid complementary player. He's great in the corners and an excellent forechecker, attributes greatly appreciated by Brian Burke. His career maps out similarly to Rob Niedermayer and the Ducks could help guide him. If you want the Kings to throw in a 4th or something, fine, whatever. The only other real option are the Ottawa Senators, and I don't see those two teams matching up.


Kings fans might wonder why they should help the Ducks. ("Why should we give them space to sign Teemu Selanne and possibly win the Cup again?") First off, you beautiful babies, we should do this deal because it's good for us. The Kings need a power play quarterback and Schneider is good at it. It's retarded to not do something because the Ducks might also gain something. Plus, if the Ducks do win the Stanley Cup, they can't rub it in our faces because they wouldn't have been able to without our help. I mean, let's be honest, this may be the closest we come to winning the Cup for a while. Losing Tukonen will hurt, but the Kings already have Dustin Brown, Ted Purcell, Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds and Marc-Andre Cliche at the right wing position. And hey, maybe the Kings should do it because it's what's best for Tukonen.

So, there you have it. The Kings should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen. It might feel awkward to play one another, but we'll get used to it. Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler once set aside their differences to come to an agreement in 1938; if they can do it, why not the Kings and the Ducks?

Anaheim Ducks News Bits

According to the O.C. Register, The Ducks are going to place Bobby Ryan at a second line wing position this season, and let him fumble through becoming an NHL regular (as they should have done last season). The move is smart and will allow Ryan to become the great Ducks player he was drafted to be.

Signing Teemu Selanne is still up in the air... PLEASE TEEMU COME BACK!!!!
In the article Burkie also discussed getting rid of someone to free up space to go after Teemu and get under the cap.

"...Burke admitted the Ducks still need to rid themselves of a defenseman(nice way of saying
Mathieu Schneider) and said that it was possible that they’d get a winger in return", as quoted from the O.C. Register article above.

“It would have to come from outside,” Burke said. “We’re not going to force a young guy into that position.”

Burke is making moves (it appears) that look like Teemu's gone, so this sort of confuses me. Only time will tell, there's still a lot of offseason to be had.

A Little Something to Cheer Us All Up

Things have been rough today, what with Lubo getting traded and Dan Cloutier being the worst person in the entire world and all. So, to cheer us up, I present to you a delicious and completely plausible rumor from Boston.com:

Mathieu Schneider

for...

FOR...

wait for it....

Glen Murray!!!!

Because why wouldn't the Ducks want to trade their talented offensive defenseman (39 points last year) for a broken-down forward (30 points last year) with little-to-no value outside of his shot? Because, dumbshit, the Ducks would get salary relief! To the tune of $1.51 million dollars! How could you pass this up?!? I need to stop yelling!

My favorite part of the article is when he claims that obtaining Murray would help replace the hole left by Todd Bertuzzi. Because it's true, Glen Murray would do an excellent job replacing Todd Bertuzzi because he's old, slow, and overpaid.

I would literally rather trade Mathieu Schneider for air than for Glen Murray. If were Brian Burke, I'd rather shoot Mathieu Schneider into the Sun and break Jonas Hiller's fingers with a claw hammer than trade for Glen Murray. Glen Murray has negative value. He is more damaging to a team's playoff chances than this blog is to my chances of getting laid. If any team is trading for Glen Murray, there better be a pretty low draft pick coming along with him. To paraphrase Jeffrey Ross, I wouldn't trade for Glen Murray with Anaheim's dick.

Is the writing on the wall for Schneider-man?

I'll refrain from tossing any Stan Lee Cup jokes here.
Well, likely in the next week or so we should get a better handle on what's in store for next year's Anaheim squad, but if my salary cap math is right, the prospect of the Ducks keeping Schneider-man this year looks shaky at best.

Still, I think it's worth writing a post to point out that aside from timing, the Schneider and Bertuzzi situations are completely different. Mathieu Schneider had a great year on Anaheim's blueline last year, whereas Bertuzzi's year was a flop, and here's some Behind the Net stats to help show Schneider-man's side of the story.

• Even-Strength: BTN has Schneider posted as Anaheim's 2nd-best even-strength performer, though he did have fairly easy competition (3rd-easiest) and teammates (6th-easiest) in the process. His 1.27 GAON/60 was the 2nd-best defensive rate on the team. Basically, Schneider was killing easy opposition at even-strength -- after Scott returned from retirement Schneider had a stretch of nearly three months without any minus-rating games.


• Power Play: BTN is harsher here; Schneider is 9th-best on the team for PP ratings, though there's a lot of good scoring rates for the players in front of him. Things were a bit awkward for Schneider adapting to the Anaheim power play, which for years had been accustomed to a non-shooting point man in Scott Niedermayer, who for all his talent is still a pretty weak shooting option. While Schneider brought a much better shot to the unit, the PP didn't click as envisioned without the sniping of Selanne and the roaming of Niedermayer. Still, Schneider's numbers were fine, and he certainly brings talent and experience that could boost a lot of PP units around the league.


• Penalty Kill: Schneider didn't play a huge role in the Ducks' PK, but he did rank 4th-best on the team in his limited minutes. He was helped by usually facing other teams' 2nd units, but he didn't buckle when called upon.

So in summary, I think the main message I want to emphasize is that unlike Big Bert, Schneider-man did earn his money last year. He dazzled well enough in the easy minutes he was given, but even so it seems like the "best blueline evah" experiment may come to an end. Even with the cap escalating, Schneidermayer doesn't seem like an affordable option to keep as the team's third-highest-paid defenseman, especially considering the timing of the Getzlaf and Perry raises.

Even though I tend to speak fatally as to Schneider's Duck future, I should stress that I'm playing GM from an internet's distance -- who knows what silliness Brian Burke has in store? Perhaps he's pursuing a different angle to hit the budget another way -- a solution that I don't have enough imagination for. As the numbers show, keeping Schneider is a fine option if it's affordable, so I'll let Burkie do his business and see what emerges. Now at least we have a salary framework to think about; let's see some Burke magic.

Go Ducks.

Help me understand the Ducks' cap situation

(click image to enlarge)
OK, here's the things to know about this chart:

1. I've taken all salary numbers from NHLSCAP.com, except Sutherby's salary comes from the OC Register blog. I have completely made up Perry's salary (I gave him Getzlaf's contract) and Selanne's non-retirement plus salary (I gave him $2M). Those assumptions are shaded in yellow, and certainly worth discussing. I've mostly made them up as placeholders, not as thought-out expectations.

2. I have been very careful to separate actual dollar spending from salary cap calculation, because when Burke talks about spending $50 million, he's talking about money, not averaged salary. In cases where spending is less than cap value, I've colored the dollars-spent in blue font. When spending exceeds cap value, they are colored in red. Contracts over time are generally level or ascending, and blue values usually indicate the start of a new contract.

3. I don't really know the rules about Bertuzzi's waiver status, but I've entered it in as best I know. In fact, the reason I'm posting this is so the BoC readership can correct where I've fucked shit up. I'm too lazy to even find out if buy-outs (like Michael Leighton) are possible in this waiver situation, but that's where informed readership pays off, right? Cleared up thanks to Mike!

4. My totals reflect all the players in boxes (includes Parros and one version of Bertuzzi, but not Salcido). To the right, I also show calculations for Salcido instead of Schneider, and then on top of that to replace Marchant with an anonymous $1-M replacement player. This second step isn't necessarily my recommendation, but Marchant is probably the next option who is getting paid more this year than his salary cap figure. Ironically, his salary is more reasonable this year than any previous year of his contract, considering the context of a fast-increasing salary cap.

5. As I indicate at the bottom of the chart, I've included $1.1M in bonuses for Bobby Ryan, but I have no idea how he does or doesn't earn them. That's one question I'd love to ask Brian Burke; it's probably better if the Anaheim fanbase knew of any constraints around Ryan's playing time.

So anyone who's inclined and knows their cap-math, please take a look at this chart and let me know if I got anything wrong; if you're compelling enough in the comments, I will alter the numbers and this post. I'm hoping to get this cap situation squared up for a follow-up "suggestions" post, but I'd like to get my facts straight first.

For now, I'll say this: keeping Schneider likely presents a salary cap issue, otherwise it's not important. Also, it's probably imperative that Corey Perry get an ascending, Getzlaf-like contract. If the target is to spend $50M this season, then his actual dollar salary needs to be lower than the averaged-amount it will take to sign him.

Anyways, fire away. Let's figure out this goddamn cap math.

Trade Possibilities to Keep the Anaheim Ducks Under the Salary Cap

It is already official that the Ducks will have to trade someone this offseason if veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer and forward Teemu Selanne decide to come back to the team after contemplating retirement.

Although the jury is still out, the rumored players to be on the chopping block are:

Todd Bertuzzi – a power forward that did not live up to expectations after his first year in Anaheim. He is currently expected to make $4 million this up-coming season which at 32 and production down makes him an easy trade for Anaheim to a team looking for help. He could draw interest from teams such as Florida, Columbus and who knows where else.

Ken’s take: I was really disappointed with Bertuzzi, he had a hard adjustment to Orange County, but I don’t think he will be Burke’s first option to trade. I look for him to remain in Anaheim.

Todd Marchant – a grinding forward making $2.66 million in 08/09. He was a huge help to the Ducks in winning the Stanley Cup, but is not a huge producer, even for a 33 year old. Not as notable a trade target as Bertuzzi but still would be good for a team.

Ken’s take: Marchant is the third most likely in this list to be traded. He is a good player and doesn’t make much of a dip into the cap. His age is a slight issue, but nothing too serious

Mathieu Schneider – a great offensive defenseman, and was brought in last season to replace Scott Niedermayer during his retirement phase, instead when Niedermayer returned Schneider added great depth on the blue line. His offensive talent saw him light the lamp often in one of final regular season game against the Kings. At 38, Schneider is the oldest player on the Ducks team, and will be collecting $5.75 million in 08/09. Schneider seems likely to be the player the Ducks most want to get rid of. The $5.75million would be nice to have back in the bank.

Ken’s take: If Schneider is the one subtracted from the team, the Ducks could trade for a defenseman worth half as much, and spend the remaining money on Teemu Selanne, and signing another forward or defenseman. The Ducks know they need to improve some small issues over last season such as goal scoring, and with that $5.75 million back, it seems best. Schneider’s age has me wondering why he isn’t one contemplating retirement, as he is older than Niedermayer (33) and Selanne (37).

All three of these players would be good choices, and Brian Burke will certainly get the best deal possible for his team. Before any decisions are made though the Ducks need to know the return status of Teemu and Scott, which is the only way the trade will truly matter.

For example: If both leave the team, then Burke only needs to worry about obtaining enough money for Corey Perry and getting that money should be fairly easily done with a small trade.

Source: Salary figures came from nhlnumber.com

More Number-Crunching with Scott

I'm in a bit of a rush today, but I did want to throw down a few more numbers around Scott Niedermayer's return to the lineup last year, even though he apparently doesn't need to give Brian Burke a retirement decision until July 1st now. I also made Burke's deadline the topic of this week's PuckToon, although I certainly could have drawn Scott a bit better -- in my cartoon he is being played by Adrien Brody.

Here's a table that shows the main five non-Niedermayer defensemen, and their even-strength performance before and after Scott's December debut:

Even-Strength Plus-Minus Before & After Scott Niedermayer

(click on image to enlarge)You'll note that in terms of even-strength play, inserting Scott at the top of the Anaheim blueline had a huge impact on the outscoring success of three players in particular -- Frenchie Beauchemin, Chris Pronger, and Sean O'Donnell.

For Pronger and O'Donnell, I think the improvement mostly stems from the sharing of tough minutes, no longer being the only shutdown option on the blueline. Really Scott's return enabled the team structure to go back to what worked so well for them in their 2007 cup run: a Norris defenseman covering most of the critical minutes, while a third pairing cleaned up on easy minutes.

It's a bit odd that Schneider and Huskins saw their outscoring productivity drop post-Niedermayer, but it wasn't a huge difference, and with Huskins in particular it could be attributed to additional even-strength minutes, freeing the superstar d-men to also manage the special teams minutes. While their numbers are very solid, it's important to remember that this system used to work with Huskins and Dipenta, who is roughly $5M cheaper than Schneidermayer.

I did want to focus a bit on Francois Beauchemin's play, however, who has spent nearly his entire career letting Scott cover his ass. You can see that Frenchie in particular struggled without Scott (and was redeemed upon Scott's return), and I think a lot of that stems from the bad habits that developed under Scott's tutelage. I've drawn a little schematic to the right to demonstrate this.

Normally, when a puck gets dumped behind two defensemen, it's likely a 50-50 split which defenseman will go retrieve the puck, depending on what side of the net the puck is directed. For Scott and Frenchie, though, they've developed something like a 80-20 split, where Beauchemin gets only the very close dump-ins and expects his fleet-footed partner to gather the rest. I remember watching a Scott-less Beauchemin very carefully in the opening 34 games, and to my eyes I could spot this happening to poor spoiled Frenchie -- he was so used to not retrieving pucks that he'd often leave his defensive partner with silly responsibilities that only a guy like Niedermayer could make look effortless.

I'm not blaming Beauchemin for anything, really -- if my back was always covered I'm sure I'd develop bad habits also, but that's another reason I really want Scott to return; he not only helps other defensive pairs manage their minutes better but also carries bad-habit Beauchemin into respectable results. Someday Frenchie is going to have to re-learn his puck responsibilities when paired with an average partner, but I don't want it to happen this year.

So that's a bit more on Scott's roster impact, at least at even strength. I'll close with a lame analogy, mainly designed to incorporate a crazy e-mail image that my dad forwarded to me. Scott's so valuable on the ice that putting him at the top of a lineup makes an ugly dude like Albert Einstein look like a beautiful blonde like Marilyn Monroe:

Step away from your screen to see some crazy-ass magic eye effect.
Insanity. Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Who would you move to make Niederroom?

Anaheim Ducks (14-12-4, t-6th in west) at Nashville Predators (13-11-2, 11th in west)

The second guest-art installment
in the spade-in-victorhell series.
I don't have much to say about last night's game against Chicago, except (a) the Ducks won despite being outshot 42 - 22, and (b) Andy McDonald and Todd Bertuzzi went back to being invisible again. I regularly told my roommate, "Man, I can't believe we're winning this game," but whatever--I'm happy enough with the two points that I won't raise a stink. I'm guessing the same strategy won't work nearly as well in Nashville, though.

NIEDERWATCH: Here's my un-scientific listing of who's most likely to be moved to make tag room for Scotty, a list that shuffles quite regularly and isn't based on much more than my mood. I've included each player's next-year-cap figure, per NHLSCAP.com.

1. Matthieu Schneider ($5.625 M): I think logically, Schneider's paid way too much for a third-highest-paid defenseman. Even with goals in each of his last two games, I think the only reason that Schneidermayer would stay is if Burke is dead-set on icing the best blueline in NHL history, or if he's determined that Scott won't play next year and wants to pro-actively address that. As a bonus, moving Schneider might make enough tag room to sign Corey Perry to an early extension (provided Perry is willing to stay in the $4 M range).

2. Todd Marchant ($2.518 M): Even though the Ducks are forward-thin and Marchant has proved his value and versatility (especially in the last playoffs), it is a lot of salary for a guy to anchor a fourth line. Moving Marchant might involve moving a draft pick as well, though we'll see how cagey Burke can be. I'd certainly miss "Stone Hands" Marchant, as he has the highest PS2-to-Actual talent ratio on the team, but I feel that a kid like Petteri Wirtanen could play the fourth-line center role responsibly enough in limited minutes.

3. Andy McDonald ($3.333 M): Andy Mac has certainly had it rough this young season, though the dropoff in linemate talent is astronomical between Teemu Selanne last year and Mark Mowers earlier this year. Still, I don't know if to my eyes he's lost any speed or ability; he just seems to be more effective when opponents have to focus on his wingers more. Burke had better be more in tune with Teemu's mindset than I am; if Selanne is coming back, then Andy Mac drops to the bottom of this list; he was our best forward in the cup finals.

4. Francois Beauchemin ($1.650 M): Frenchie is another enigma of sorts; his goals-against rates were much better back when Scotty was covering his back. He is certainly underpaid for the amount of minutes that he plays, and thus should be fairly easy to move (in fact, I would expect some return in a Frenchie trade). Still, we shouldn't forget Frenchie's impact on the '06 playoffs; his fist-fight with Iginla and shoulder-hit on Brunette were enormous factors in advancing past Calgary and Colorado.

5. Sean O'Donnell ($1.250 M): Probably O'Donnell should be higher on this list, but I'll tell you: I think O.D. has been a tremendous team-first guy on this roster. I mean, the guy was an unrestricted free agent defenseman in a zany marketplace who had just won the Stanley Cup, and he signed back on the team for a PAY CUT. That is pretty huge in my books, and I hope that fact isn't lost on Burke. You know exactly what you are going to get on the ice with O.D.--the safest play he's capable of--but there's always a role for that kind of guy.

6. Some combination of Travis Moen ($913 K), Shane Hnidy ($718 K), Kent Huskins ($625 K), Brad May ($600 K), or George Parros ($550 K): I think dollarwise, this means Moen plus another guy. Moen (or as I call him, "the Omen") has had rough counting numbers but is still contributing defensively on the Pahlsson line. Plus he was HUGE in the playoffs, t-2nd on the team in goals and t-1st on the team in game-winners. Hnidy has been better of late, though his first instinct always seems to be to grab a guy with his free hand. The other three have all been improvements on last year's versions. There seems to be some possibility here (all these guys seem replaceable enough), but I don't think it's going to happen--it adds to the trade complexity and starts removing too many parts of an already-thin roster.

7. Todd Bertuzzi ($4.000 M): I talk trash on Bertuzzi more than most Duck fans, but given Bert's salary, I don't think there's many GMs that will easily take the guy--he'll probably cost the EDM first-rounder to move, I'd guess. But I'm not sure I'm entirely pessimistic about keeping Bertuzzi. Sure he's a floater who needs limited puck exposure, but as we saw with Penner last year, there's a way that Bertuzzi can be played effectively--essentially he'll be as good as his linemates can make him. Bert will probably look really bad on a bad team but may look really good on a good one, and if this team does take a step forward, I'm willing to stay on the Bertuzzi bet a little while longer.

So that's my list, based on zero inside sources and just my gut feel. Two things to note: (a) Burke has made his trade-timeframe public, and will not be bargaining from a position of strength. As we've seen in the case of Ilya Bryzgalov, it doesn't seem to be the case that rival GMs are in any hurry to do Burke any favors. (b) Going for Burke, though, is the fact that there isn't any real need to get any return for whichever player gets moved. Scotty (with the possibility of some Teemu) is plenty of return already. It wouldn't even be that bad if a player got on the waiver train to Phoenix.

So, just for fun, if you were Burke, which player would you look to unload? Unleash your fantasy GM skills in the comments.

Prediction: I'm not that optimistic; I'm guessing Nashville carries a lot of the play today. Still, Ducks 3, Preds 2. Goals by Platt, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Optimism, thy name is Schneidermayer

Columbus Blue Jackets (7-3-1, t-3rd in west) at Anaheim Ducks (4-7-2, t-11th in west)

For those of you Duck fans who are not taking the time to read Ducks Wire, I’d highly encourage it. It’s a great way to keep tabs on the latest Duck headlines, sort of a Kukla’s Korner for Anaheim and Portland news (better than waiting for me to become a credible news source). Anyway, if we believe the latest reports from practice, the Ducks are likely to have Rob Niedermayer, Ryan Getzlaf, and finally Mathieu Schneider in the lineup tonight. If so, this really figures to be the most complete lineup the Ducks have dressed all season—really the only missing piece (under non-suspended contract) is the concussion-stricken Bertuzzi.

(By the way, I'm not really sure what I meant to do with that picture on the right. Something about Niedermayer being Schneider's internal voice, a la Obi Wan Kenobi with young Luke, but it's not the most self-evident graphic I've ever made.)

I know my Ducks writing of late has been pretty pessimistic in nature, so I thought today I'd talk about one positive about the Ducks' crummy start to the season: at least it didn't happen last year. To illustrate, here's the 5 Pacific teams and their start thus far, along with how they started last season in the same number of games:

1. San Jose Sharks 12 GP, 6-5-1 (.542), 13 pts. 29 GF, 28 GA. PP 17.5%, PK 88.1%
Start of Last Year 12 GP 8-4-0 (.667), 16 pts. 40 GF, 28 GA. PP 28.0%, PK 85.9%
Key Metrics: Pts down 19%, GF down 28%, GA even, PP down 11%, PK up 2%

2. Dallas Stars 12 GP, 5-5-2 (.500), 12 pts. 33 GF, 33 GA. PP 19.2%, PK 87.0%
Start of Last Year 12 GP, 10-2-0 (.833), 20 pts. 38 GF, 22 GA. PP 15.7%, PK 89.5%
Key Metrics: Pts down 40%, GF up 15%, GA up 50%, PP down 4%, PK up 3%

3. Los Angeles Kings 13 GP, 6-7-0 (.462), 12 pts. 39 GF, 42 GA. PP 21.4%, PK 81.7%
Start of Last Year: 13 GP, 3-8-2 (.308), 8 pts. 25 GF, 36 GA. PP 10.1%, PK 85.3%
Key Metrics: Pts up 50%, GF up 56%, GA up 17%, PP up 11%, PK down 4%

4. Anaheim Ducks 13 GP, 4-7-2 (.385), 10 pts. 27 GF, 33 GA. PP 10.5%, PK 80.9%
Start of Last Year: 13 GP, 9-0-4 (.846), 22 pts. 42 GF, 28 GA. PP 20.6%, PK 87.5%
Key Metrics: Pts down 55%, GF down 36%, GA up 18%, PP down 10%, PK down 7%

5. Phoenix Coyotes, 10 GP, 4-6-0 (.400), 8 pts. 22 GF, 29 GA. PP 8.7%, PK 81.4%
Start of Last Year: 10 GP, 2-8-0 (.200), 4 pts. 19 GF, 44 GA. PP 9.2%, PK 76.5%
Key Metrics: Pts up 100%, GF up 16%, GA down 34%, PP down 1%, PK up 5%

Last year by this time in the season, there were already 18 points separating the top seed in the Pacific from the bottom seed; this year the spread is down to 5 points. And while the Ducks have the worst winning percentage of the bunch, it's better to be trailing the Sharks by 3 points and the Stars by 2 than if those teams had started with last year's start; then the deficit would be 6 points to the Sharks and 10 points to the Stars, and my panic would be much more severe.

At any rate, the Blue Jackets come in after beating out the Kings last night in what seems to be a typical Columbus effort: limiting goals against. In case you're not up to speed with the western standings, you may be surprised to note that Columbus leads the league in goals-allowed-per-game (1.82) and in penalty killing (93.0%). You may also be surprised to note that the Calgary Flames lead the west in goals-scored-per-game (3.50). It wasn't that long ago (2002-03) when the Flames were 14th in the west in team offense and the Blue Jackets were 15th in the west in team defense; talk about changing identity.

Prediction: The Ducks and Blue Jackets met up in Columbus early last month (part of the Ducks' whirlwind post-London fatigue tour) and the game was an Anaheim disaster. Fatigued and jet-lagged, the Ducks took 16 minutes to get a shot on goal, ended up being shorthanded for more than 20 minutes of gameclock, and surrendered 3 PP goals en route to a 4-0 loss. I'm optimistic that those trends won't be repeated. Let's say Ducks 4, Blue Jackets 2. Goals by Moen, Miller, Pahlsson, and the man I call Schneidermayer.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Preview, Part 1: Defining what needs to be replaced

Well, now that camp is halfway done and it’s become apparent that Niedermayer or Selanne have no imminent plans to rejoin the team, I think I can finally sit down and start writing up a season preview. Previewing this Anaheim team is still a bag of questions, however, as I don’t really know how forward lines or defensive pairs will be laid out, but in any case a good first step is to determine precisely what’s missing from last year. Essentially, this can be boiled down to three significant players and their contributions: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, and Scott Niedermayer. These three combined for 103 goals over 103 games (regular season plus playoffs), but let’s delve in a bit to see where those goals really came from.

To study this, I am going to compare Selanne & Penner’s output to the results of the rest of the Anaheim forwards. Then I will compare Niedermayer’s output to the results of the rest of the defensemen. Finally, I will look at all three players’ results compared to the rest of the team.

Note that this strictly is dealing with on-ice productivity, ignoring such factors as experience, leadership, salary, or popularity. I will also be talking a bit about quality of minutes based on Behind the Net’s quality of teammate and quality of opposition metrics, which basically provide a context for the ice time based on the other players on the ice.

EVEN STRENGTH

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 15 / 676, Opposition ranking: 566 / 676
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 104 / 676, Opposition ranking: 572 / 676
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 486 / 676, Opposition ranking: 132 / 676

Player	ES TOI	ES G	ES A	ES Pts	ES Plus	ES Minus
Teemu Selanne	1,364	28	27	55	+72	–42
Dustin Penner	1,125	23	13	36	+48	–44
Rest of forwards	11,339	125	185	310	+478	–386
Selanne / Penner Pct.	18%	29%	18%	23%	20%	19%
Scott Niedermayer	1,803	8	35	43	+80	–67
Rest of defense	7,593	17	73	90	+320	–253
Niedermayer Pct.	19%	32%	32%	32%	20%	21%
All three players	4,292	59	75	134	+200	–155
Rest of team	18,932	142	258	400	+798	–639
Three Player Pct.	18%	29%	23%	25%	20%	20%

Takeaways: Both Selanne and Penner had relatively easy ice time, playing mostly with teammates that produced at even strength and against opponents that did not. Using that icetime, Selanne and Penner were able to score 29% of Anaheim forwards’ goals and 23% of the points, using 18% of the available ice time. Those are lofty numbers, but there is plenty of scoring ice time available to help replace that production.

Niedermayer, on the other hand, played much more difficult even-strength shifts, and despite this was able to score 32% of Anaheim defensemen’s goals and points using 19% of the available ice time. These are going to be much more difficult points to replace at even-strength, as it will have to be done with some defensive-oriented teammates and against some lofty competition.

Overall, the three players produced 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 25% of Anaheim’s even-strength points.

POWER PLAY

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 4 / 428, Opposition ranking: 406 / 428
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 23 / 428, Opposition ranking: 353 / 428
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 8 / 428, Opposition ranking: 356 / 428
(note that these rankings are based on 5-on-4 only)

Player	PP TOI	PP G	PP A	PP Pts	PP Plus	PP Minus
Teemu Selanne	479	25	29	54	+68	–3
Dustin Penner	315	9	8	17	+37	–3
Rest of forwards	1,604	43	83	126	+215	–17
Selanne / Penner Pct.	33%	44%	31%	36%	33%	26%
Scott Niedermayer	582	10	27	37	+77	–7
Rest of defense	982	18	56	74	+125	–6
Niedermayer Pct.	37%	36%	33%	33%	38%	54%
All three players	1,376	44	64	108	+182	–13
Rest of team	2,586	61	139	200	+340	–23
Three Player Pct.	35%	42%	32%	35%	35%	36%

Takeaways: By the end of the playoffs, Selanne, Penner, and Niedermayer made up 3/5 of the Ducks’ top power play unit. And even though the Ducks’ PP sputtered towards the end of the playoffs, it still was one of the best performing units throughout all of last year.

Because of the PP dominance, you can see that all three players have very easy-looking quality of icetime, though I should caution that the Teammate ranking is largely based on playing with each other, something that replacement players will not have the benefit of. Still, the players who will need to replace this offense will be given the opportunity to play with the best available teammates, so I’m not sure how these metrics will be affected.

Power play results are a pretty tricky concept, especially when overhauling most of a top unit. It’s tough to get a handle on how chemistry, positions, or roles will change. Selanne in particular appears the most difficult to replace, as his 25 regular season power play goals led the entire league.

One strange factor to note, though: despite the lofty numbers, this trio of players only combined for one postseason power play goal. I guess the encouraging thing is that the Ducks were still able to win despite the special teams dropoff.

PENALTY KILL

(Both Selanne and Penner played less than 10 minutes of PK time, so they are exempted.)

Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 160 / 395, Opposition ranking: 68 / 395
(note that these rankings are based on 4-on-5 only)

Player	SH TOI	SH G	SH A	SH Pts	SH Plus	SH Minus
Scott Niedermayer	415	0	0	0	+2	–46
Rest of defense	1,271	0	4	4	+10	–106
Niedermayer Pct.	25%	0%	0%	0%	17%	25%

Takeaways: This is why Scott Niedermayer is amazing. Alongside his impressive even-strength and power play assignments, he also threw in quite a bit of shorthanded play as well. His results don’t look terribly spectacular, but considering his difficulty of 4-on-5 minutes and his regular spot on 2-man disadvantages, it is significant time that will need to be replaced as well.

THE BOTTOM LINE

These three players represent 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 42% of Anaheim’s power play goals, and all told represent one full goal-scored per game. That said, there is some pretty attractive ice time available to help offset these losses. With this in mind, let’s take a quick glance at the two main replacements that were brought in this summer:

Mathieu Schneider: Schneider is a pretty optimal replacement for Scott Niedermayer’s even-strength and power play production, I think. He certainly won’t have the versatility and endurance to replace all of Niedermayer’s ice time, but if Scott’s penalty kill can be absorbed by other defensemen (Shane Hnidy or Sean O’Donnell, perhaps), then I think the Ducks can avoid a huge dropoff in their blueline production.

Todd Bertuzzi: This is where things get complicated. In a good scenario, Bertuzzi could pick up Selanne’s slack on the top line; in a bad scenario, Bertuzzi is only good enough to pick up Penner’s slack on the second line. But for sure, he will not be able to replace both of them, and whichever one’s offense he cannot replace will have to be offset from within the organization (a tall order, especially if it’s Selanne’s production). Bertuzzi certainly has upside that could possibly replace Selanne, but it’s tough to know for sure until he sees some regular ice time.

Anyway, it’s clear looking at the players leaving and the replacements that Anaheim (in the absence of any future roster moves) is due for a drop-off; there’s just not enough talent coming back to replace the talent that is leaving. Of course, all this gets thrown out the window should either Selanne or Niedermayer decide to pick up the skates and start playing again, but in their absence, how much will the offense suffer? And how much will that affect results?

I don’t have a solid idea of how this season will turn out for Anaheim’s title defense, but this post gives an idea of what the on-ice obstacles will be. It certainly promises to be a revealing year for Anaheim, though, and while I can’t predict it very well, I’m still looking forward to it with eagerness.

Go Ducks.