Ducks Gameday—The Three Patos!

Columbus Blue Jackets (11-12-3, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (14-10-3, t-4th in west)
No, we will not die like dogs! We will fight like lions!

"Three Patos, Anaheim, California. You are very great. 100,000 pesos. Come to Santa Poco, put on show, stop. The Infamous El Guapo."

In a way, each of us has an El Guapo to face.
Sometimes that El Guapo is the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Prediction: Ducks 4, Jackets 2. Goals by Little Neddy Niedermayer, Dusty Pronger, Lucky Day Selanne, and Santa Poco resident Pahlsson. Together they prune the hedges of many small villages. For your El Guapo coverage, go visit Bethany's Hockey Rants.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—The Avery Impact

Anaheim Ducks (14-9-3, 3rd in west) at Chicago Blackhawks (10-6-6, t-7th in west)
How much will this post cost me in karma dollars?

Instead of talking up this Chicago rematch, I'm going to throw my two rambly cents in on the Avery suspension. I don't like it.

Now don't get me wrong; there's a lot to dislike about Avery, including this recent set of inflammatory remarks, but you have to recognize Avery for what he is -- a sensationalist media creation. Over the years, reporters have glorified his personality and encouraged his bad boy behavior (which I can understand -- NHLers are generally too boring for newsstands). And that's the thing -- I do believe Avery's statements were intended more to feed the hungry media than they were to hurt Dion Phaneuf / Elisha Cuthbert's feelings. He was doing what he was expected to do -- agitate and entertain -- and more or less in the manner that he was trained to do.

It wasn't out of line with the media characterization that was built up over his career, nor with the persona that the Stars signed last summer. I dunno, it's like giving a dog a treat for coming inside six days a week but then beating it for doing so on Sunday -- maybe there was a vague line that was crossed, but I don't think Avery thought he was "detrimental to the League". If anything, he was promoting the league in the best way he knew how.

Sure, it's not normally acceptable behavior to be calling out players for their love lives, and we can debate the shock value of the words "sloppy seconds" compared to other word choices, but it's not as if this elephant wasn't already in the room -- Avery did manage to get himself in trouble without naming a single name. In a practical sense, Avery took a topic that dozens of hockey writers have already made crude jokes about and then shockingly made one himself.

In short, Avery was Avery, and the NHL suspended him for it without any strong precedent. As an isolated incident involving a rival team, I probably don't care about this that much, but I do worry about where it leads. We're already in a period where player interviews are purposefully bland and carefully measured, and while Avery is certainly not the model of ideal media interaction, he was different from the robotic mold and punished because of it. Going forward I think the NHL should probably publish a list of do-not-discuss guidelines -- it's a sham that they can't define a social barrier until after it's been crossed. Even so, as I point out in the cartoon, I suspect we'll see even less personality in front of a microphone from players in the future, and that general insincerity will probably be another barrier between the players and the fans, and that's sort of a shame.

Sean Avery is no hero, and I don't mean to present him as even a likeable figure, but it's really tough for me to see the rationale for the league's suspension. I think it's a dangerous path to discourage personality in front of the microphone without any specific guidelines, and we're probably in for a blander NHL as a result (though in fairness, we were probably in for that anyway). Anyways, I'm open to being convinced -- feel free to agree or disagree or add your own two cents in the comments.

And now to the part where Sleek gets suspended:

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Listen, I love Canada. It's just when it comes to Battle of Ontario teams hiring head coaches and general managers, they really seem to have fallen in love with Anaheim's sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about.



Ron Wilson, Craig Hartsburg, Bryan Murray, and Brian Burke --
That pretty much spans the entirety of Anaheim's history right there.
Prediction: Last Friday the Ducks and Hawks skated to a 1-0 game in Anaheim, so I suspect Hiller might get the start tonight, but there's no real wrong answer in net right now. The Ducks do need to start scoring some goals, though, so let's say Ducks 5, Hawks 3. Goals by Getzlaf x2, S. Niedermayer, Pahlsson, and Perry.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Streak Comparison: This Season vs. Last

Anaheim Ducks (14-8-3, 3rd in west) at Detroit Red Wings (15-4-4, 2nd in west)
Battle of the Hangovers

For today's post I threw together a comparison table looking at how the Ducks and Red Wings have been performing compared to a specific stretch of games last season. For the Ducks, the selected stretches have been hand-picked from each season:

07-08: the first 19 games after Scott Niedermayer returned to the lineup.
08-09: the most recent 19 games (excluding the 1-5-0 first six games).

I decided to stick to stretches where the Ducks have been performing well points-wise. In the 07-08 stretch, the Ducks went 12-5-2; in the 08-09 stretch the Ducks went 13-3-3. For the Red Wings, the selection is much more straightforward:

07-08: the first 23 games of the season.
08-09: the first 23 games of the season.

This one's much more obvious: I'm just looking at how Detroit's "hangover" start (15-4-4) compares to its season start from last year (15-6-2). Now I don't want to read too much into these early-season comparisons, but I think it's worth noting that while each of these teams have actually improved their ability to accumulate standings points (for a stretch, anyways), a lot of the underlying numbers have gotten worse. Let's take a look:


Note: excludes shootout goals. Click image to enlarge.
Patterns: For both the Ducks and Red Wings, the current-year versions have been surrendering way more goals than they did last year -- each team is giving up around 2/3 an extra goal-per-game, with some of that comes from a declining penalty kill. Each team has found a way to generate wins despite a shakier defense, though, mainly through an improved team offense.

Offensively, one of the keys has been each team's power play, which has for each team produced more power play goals in fewer power play opportunities than the year before. Overall, each team has improved its offense, though not by the same margin that the defensive numbers have changed; each team this year has a worse goal-differential-per-game than the previous year.

Shot analysis shows a similar story: shots-for per game are marginally improved, but shots-against per game have increased even further; the net shot differential has gotten worse this year for both squads (the Ducks, in fact, are now typically outshot).

So basically, what does this mean? Both squads have shown an improved ability to accumulate standings points this year vs. last year despite some declines in the differential statistics and underlying numbers -- in a way, this suggests that the current win pattern is a bit illusory. I'd expect that each team would have gotten worse results with the current year's statistics, but at least so far, that hasn't really been the case. I wouldn't worry about these patterns just yet for either team (there is absolutely nothing wrong with illusory win streaks in November), but here's some open-ended questions for the comments:

• Why do you think these teams have continued to win despite worsened statistics: is there something to the notion of "knowing how to win all styles of hockey" where these veteran rosters are capable of adjusting to a more free-flowing game?


• What do you see as the primary drivers for the change in offensive and defensive numbers for these teams? Are opponents treating them differently, or are these squads more careless than they used to be?


• Going forward, what do you expect out of each team? Will the numbers eventually tighten up, or is this an offense-friendly evolution for the Ducks and Red Wings? If the statistics do not tighten up, can these teams continue winning the way they currently are?

Food for thought, anyway.

Prediction: Now that I've demonstrated a more offense-friendly tendency for both the Ducks and Red Wings, we're probably in for a tight defensive battle tonight. Ducks 2, Wings 1. Goals by Ryan and Pahlsson. For your Wings coverage, there's always A2Y, Winging it in Motown, and On the Wings.

Go Ducks.

Earl Takes a Request

Tim Sassone, Chicago Beat Writer, November 25:

Is it being a little too greedy to think the Hawks can go 6-0 on this road trip? Wednesday's game in San Jose won't be easy, but the Sharks can be beat and the Hawks almost did it last week at the United Center. The Hawks led 5-4 going to the third period then took a couple dumb penalties and wound up losing 6-5. It's on to Anaheim Friday and the Ducks aren't anywhere near as good as they were when they won the Stanley Cup. The Hawks close the trip Saturday at Los Angeles against an improved, but nothing special Kings team.

Rudy Kelly, BoC Blogger, November 29:

The Blackhawks have lost both California games (against San Jose and Anaheim) this weekend. Let's make it one more so Earl has to bust out the ol' rape graphic again.

Well, apologies for the absence this week, but with siblings in town for Turkey Day, I was away from the computer for a bit -- but I've had myself a great week. I was even in Row B for Friday's game against the Blackhawks, and had great seats to see Wild Wing trip over some carpeting thanks to his duckbill-obstructed view. It was a pretty fun afternoon and a decent 1-0 game, and it's not hard to see why Blackhawks fans are excited this year -- this looks like a top-eight roster and once a goalie gets moved there's even salary room for improvement. Still, I'm not sure they're ready to call for sweeps just yet on the west coast swing; those are rare even for the great teams since the lockout (see comment #2 in this post), and there's always plenty of legit excuses -- miles, time zones, often back-to-backs, home refereeing, and the fact that SJ is killing all visitors this year. Whatever, the dude called the BoC road trip out and crapped out hard, and will get what he deserves.

San Jose Sharks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Anaheim Ducks 1, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Los Angeles Kings 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Battle of California 9, Sweep-Talking Blackhawks 4


Modified from the State Rape cartoon that started it all.
Go Ducks (and sure, Kings and Sharks too when it makes for a good graphic).

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #5: Finale

Colorado Avalanche (9-10-0, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (11-8-3, t-4th in west)


Ah, we finally arrive at the conclusary installment of Burke Week, a five-day gander back at the Anaheim legacy of Brian Burke.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad.
Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.
Part III: Nothing but shout-outs.
Part IV: What I like about Burke the roster-builder.

And now we arrive at Part V: Scattered final thoughts, where I squeeze everything I've missed into a final post for the series. We'll start with some counterpoint: Two things that I didn't like about Burke the roster-builder.

Regret One: Europe, Where Art Thou?

Since Brian Burke's second year in Anaheim, there has been a fairly rigid three-player maximum on players from Europe -- Teemu Selanne from Finland, Sammy Pahlsson from Sweden, and the back-up goalie (first Ilya Bryzgalov from Russia, now Jonas Hiller from Switzerland), but before Burke arrived, Anaheim used to be a melting pot. Burke rid the team of Vitaly Vishnevski (Russia), Ruslan Salei (Belarus), Niclas Havelid (Sweden), Sandis Ozolinsh (Latvia), Petr Sykora (Czech Republic), Sergei Fedorov (Russia), and Ladislav Smid (Czech Republic), among others. Think about this: in 2003 the Ducks went to the Stanley Cup Finals with zero Canadians on their blueline. In 2007 the Ducks won the Stanley Cup with zero non-Canadians on their blueline.

It became very clear over Burke's tenure what sort of player he was building around -- skilled or not, he wanted North American skaters in nearly every roster slot. Now I don't want to attack this mindset too badly -- you can still make an impressive team from mostly one continent. However, one only had to look at the success of Swedish forwards on Detroit or the Finnish forwards on Dallas (or really, the European contribution to any team's success) to see that Burke's one-continent focus was biased against plenty of world-class talent.

It's one reason that I'm not upset to see Brian Burke leave -- he certainly did very good work while he was here, but I don't think too many years of Europe-phobia is good for an NHL franchise. By artificially limiting the available talent pool, the Ducks seemingly ignored a source for creativity and puck control -- and I think that they would be well-served to reintroduce that intercontinental element into their post-Burke philosophy. I just hope that Bob Murray has an open mind to the contributions of overseas players; I think it's an element the Ducks have been missing.

Regret Two: How Bad is Burke at the Entry Draft?

I don't follow prospects that well, so I can't really tell you how much more barren Anaheim's prospect pool is compared to when Burke arrived, but I assume it's been rather depleted. One of the problems, I assume, is Brian Burke's draft record, which will have to be judged in future years, but based on reputation and what I have seen looks unimpressive thus far.

I guess the indicting argument against Burke's draft record is that I believe Bobby Ryan and Brett Festerling represent the only players that Burke has drafted that have tasted NHL ice, and Ryan was selected in a high-expectation slot (2nd overall, one spot behind Sidney Crosby). I'm definitely not an expert here, but I'd expect that a draft-savvier GM would have accumulated more NHL-ready players by now (though granted, a lot of Anaheim's top picks were sent to Edmonton in the Pronger deal). I think it's premature for any hard criticism here (and a lot may be based on Bobby Ryan alone), but so far, it's tough to spot where Burke's draft record has served the Ducks very much.

Of course, there is a flipside to this criticism, which is that Burke has demonstrated that it's possible to build teams almost entirely outside of the draft -- the 2007 cup squad had very few players who were actually drafted by Anaheim (I believe Getzlaf, Perry, and Bryzgalov). Also, with Dave McNab finding lots of talent outside the draft (Anaheim's undrafted talent includes Andy McDonald, Dustin Penner, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Shannon, Ryan Carter, and Jonas Hiller), perhaps the importance of the draft is overstated. Still, the entry draft is a definite source to replenish talent, and it may prove that Burke's draft mediocrity hampers the Ducks in the near future.

But let's not overlook the upside.

I don't want to end Burke Week on all sour notes, though. Even with his drawbacks, Burke did transform the team's image from a Disney sidestory into one of the west's top teams. Burke became a source for franchise legitimacy -- I don't know if the team lands a Scott Niedermayer or a Chris Pronger without the presence of Brian Burke, and I don't know if a Mathieu Schneider or a Brendan Morrison even seriously considers the franchise as a signing option. Burke had the clout to trade away a high-priced Sergei Fedorov and a high-priced Mathieu Schneider for spare parts, and the bravery to stand behind moves like the waiving of Ilya Bryzgalov.

Basically, no matter his flaws and strengths, Burke was a high-profile GM and hockey personality, and he added relevance to the Anaheim Ducks. His coming to SoCal legitimized the franchise and fixed its focus on winning, and without that, the team's fortunes could have gone in a very different direction -- probably one without a Stanley Cup. There's definitely been some baggage to Brian Burke, but the upside has been pretty spectacular.

What I'll miss most about Brian Burke:
What I'll miss least about Brian Burke:

The answer to both of these is his mouth, which has definitely been a regular source for amusement, but also has diverted many of my blogging man-hours to defending the guy's often-malicious quotes. For better or worse, there is no topic in hockey that Brian Burke is too timid to discuss, usually with the spirit of antagonism. There's no doubt that I'm going to miss that mouth -- it sure beats the usual media-timidness that most hockey personalities have, but I won't lie. It's also going to be nice to have a little less controversy coming from the GM's mouth, as well.

Entertaining quotes occasionally do come at a price, not only in terms of franchise perception but also with burnt bridges as well. Anyone want to put an over/under on the number of months before we see another Anaheim-Edmonton trade?

A classic example of Burke's mouth making headlines.
Bottom Line: Overall, I'm a huge Burke supporter, even though over Burke Week I've split my positives and negatives pretty evenly. The upsides to having a strong-willed GM far outweigh the drawbacks (though it's important to remember those, as well). As a Ducks blogger, I've never had much desire to interview Ducks players (though nobody's really given me any opportunity) -- generally, I am disgusted enough with bland cliches that I don't think I'd do very well in that setting. That said, I would have loved to have an opportunity to interview Brian Burke -- even though the interview would have been generally awful (I'd probably conduct it at a bar and wouldn't write or record anything), I imagine shooting the shit with Burke would be ten times as entertaining as doing the same with any player.

Ultimately, Burke built a Stanley Cup Champion team in Anaheim, and nothing should take away from that. We'll miss you, Burkie, and wish you limited success in Toronto/wherever.

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So that's the scattered last chapter of my Burke Week -- I definitely had a lot to say about the guy and what he did in Anaheim. For the comments, what's your final analysis? What grade would you give Brian Burke for his GM job in Anaheim, and how much do you think he will be missed? Any final thoughts are welcome in the comments.

Prediction: Ducks win 4-2. Goals by Ryan, Getzlaf, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #4: GM Lessons from a Cup Champ

Anaheim Ducks (10-8-2, 7th in west) at St. Louis Blues (6-8-2, 15th in west)
Ducks had better have a better start or somebody's going to the dentist!

So for Part IV of this series, I thought I'd take a look at some of the ways that Burke was a very good general manager -- things that worked for the Ducks not only on their Cup run but also looking forward. Think of these as a bit of a primer for good ol' Bob Murray, or more accurately, Part IV: What I like about Burke the roster-builder.

Lesson One: If you want depth, don't acquire depth players; instead insert talent at the top of your roster.

While I've stated before that I’m not overly impressed that Burke had the "wisdom" to acquire Niedermayer, Selanne, or Pronger, I don’t want to take away from the fact that Burke knew what he was going after – a superstar. His focus wasn’t on filling in his roster with supplementary depth players, though he certainly put those pieces in place as well; he was looking to acquire top-flight players for the top end of his roster and let his existing roster form the depth. Not only was a superstar able to drop players down to more manageable roles, but Carlyle could even form a legitimate pairing with Scott Niedermayer and a league-minimum Francois Beauchemin, for example, and further benefit from an all-star's abilities. In a nutshell, if you ask me how Burke was able to build a cup winner, the answer is that he took a franchise with a lot of supporting parts and inserted talent at the top. By doing so, he made everyone more effective.

Lesson Two: Shelter your kids – It’s good for them and it’s good for you.

I think the way Getzlaf and Perry were brought into the league was phenomenal. Their rookie year they were played as fourth-liners, with Todd Fedoruk watching their backs – a very no-pressure environment to learn the ropes of the NHL. To effectively remove them from Calder consideration, they were even demoted for a month or so to the AHL Pirates, but played together throughout. Their sophomore year they moved up to second-liners, still sheltered from top defenders (Selanne drew those matchups) and top scorers (Pahlsson of course got those). That year was of course the cup year, so needless to say it worked out well. Then finally last year, their contract year, they were given responsibilities as top-liners, and having been groomed for the role they delivered. The payoff to the Ducks was two well-prepared top-liners who not only proved their abilities but also signed at reasonable rates ($5.6 million apiece, which certainly could have been worse). That salary in part has to do with their limited time on the top line – by holding them back not only were they better prepared but also had less career points come contract time. This also holds true for Bobby Ryan, who I can only speculate on his worth, but will certainly have limited NHL exposure come contract time two summers from now. It will be interesting to see how good Bobby Ryan becomes, or how prepared for NHL duty he is, and how much his sheltering pays off in his next contract for Anaheim.

Lesson Three: Be true to your players and they’ll be true to you.

I can't think of one time Brian Burke didn’t righteously stand up for one of his players in Anaheim – no matter how stupid or how idiotic it was. It’s one reason Brian Burke is as hated as he is by rival fans, but probably one reason why players seem so loyal to him. Whether it’s Bertuzzi’s suckerpunch, Pronger’s elbows or skateblade, Selanneidermayer’s semi-retirements, or even softer stuff like Giguere dealing with his baby’s health – Burke is front-and-center deflecting criticism and supporting his guys. He’s done seemingly honorable things in waiving Bryzgalov and proving Giguere with a no-movement clause, and I think there's payoff to those moves -- I know players are loathe to say anything controversial, but I haven't heard any player critical of Burke, even guys who have left under tough circumstances (Penner, McDonald, Schneider, Bertuzzi). Whether or not fans like or dislike what Brian Burke has to say, it does seem that players do respond favorably to it, and I think that perception is helpful in luring free agents to sign or players to re-sign.

Lesson Four: No Long-Term Deals ... Flexibility = Positivity!

This is a big one for me, too. Brian Burke has committed to two 5-year deals (Getzlaf and Perry), four 4-year deals (both Niedermayers, Kunitz, and Giguere), and only a few 3-year deals (McDonald and Carter, notably). He’s also acquired two deals with 4 years remaining (Marchant and Pronger). He’s stayed away from mammoth-year contracts, though, and I’m glad he’s done so. Burke hasn’t crippled rosters seven or eight years from now, and that has to be the wise move -- with a changing NHL landscape and a newly-implemented salary cap, it's tough to foresee what player values will be five years down the road. Now don't get me wrong -- I'm not against all long-term deals (I once advocated a fifteen-year deal for Getzlaf), but I'm glad it's not a crutch that Burke used to lure players to Anaheim. I think GMs who do that are selfish -- they are trying to win now while risking their franchise's ability to win in the future (partially it's because of mixed motivations -- the roster seven years from now is likely going to be a replacement GM's problem). So while many like to say that Burke has ruined the Ducks, it doesn't seem a long-term problem; in two or three years there will hardly be any Burke contracts on the books at all.

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So that's some of the positive GM lessons that Burke has demonstrated; if you feel like I've missed anything, feel free to add your own lesson from Burke in the comments. Part V I'll try to do a wrap-up; some GM lessons I didn't like, what I'll miss most and least about the guy (first in both categories: his mouth), and a conclusion.

Prediction: Bob Murray's Ducks 5, Andy Murray's Blues 2. Goals by Perry, Ryan, Morrison, Pahlsson, and Montador.

Go Ducks.

Brian Burke Week Part III: Nothing but shout-outs

Time to take a break from my normally scheduled Burke Week -- tomorrow I'll get to the positive GM lessons we can learn from the Burke. Today instead I'm just going to toss a few links and call it a day (partially because I feel bad just tossing these at the end of a long post; mostly because I'm lazy).

First off, in keeping with Burke-themed tradition, I was a guest again on The Rink Podcast this week to talk about what the Burke departure means for Anaheim. I'm the first of three guests in a virtual All-Star Game of blog guests -- Steve Lepore of Puck the Media also talks about Versus ratings, and Alanah McGinley of Canucks and Beyond talks about Roberto Luongo's shutout streak. Not my strongest work, but then again, podcasting ain't my forte.

Secondly, I wanted to give an update on the guy sometimes known as Kyle J and sometimes known as "the Swede" -- our mysterious comic book contributor here at BoC (Episode 1: Toronto, Episode II: Detroit). Well since his BoC debut, Comic Book Guy has taken the new name "Good Kyle", and has started his own multi-faceted blog: Good Kyle Versus Evil Kyle. I've added the link under "Hockey + Cartoons = Awesome", even though hockey cartoons seems to be a small portion of what that blog is offering. Good Kyle assures me that there's more hockey-themed artwork coming, though, and sent this image as a token of good positivity:

Why so sad?
And lastly and leastly, I also stayed Burke-themed on today's PuckToon. It was a rush-job, no doubt, but I'm not dissatisfied with the result. Enjoy!

Bobby Ryan = Positivity! Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Getting to know Getzlaf

David Amber's Q & A sessions started gaining a lot of attention about a year ago for actually getting hockey players to say something interesting. (Keep in mind this was in a time before Russian journalists were quoting Alex Semin slamming Sidney Crosby)

Getzlaf was Amber's most recent guest and it's a pretty interesting interview. It highlights Todd Marchant not as a stone-handed center but a jokester, provides some interesting insight into the Dustin Penner situation and touches on Getzlaf's older brother, who plays in the CFL. Not bad for North American media.

Dustin Penner Sucks, Take 1,783

I've been an independent observer of this whole Dustin Penner fiasco, and like M*A*S*H* or a penis, it just gets better the longer it goes. To recap: The Oilers sign Dustin Penner to a 5-year, $21.25 million dollar deal after his astounding 43-point season playing alongside 2 scrubs named Ryan Getzly and Chris Perry or something like that. Who cares, they've never done anything anyway. There was much gnashing of the teeth from bloviating jackass Brian Burke, who criticized Lowe for ruining both teams; this was followed by a lot of back-and-forth between the outmatched Anaheim blogging contingent and the Edmonton juggernaut. But, in the end, Brian Burke was right: the Dustin Penner offer sheet not only left Edmonton with an overpaid, unmotivated baby, but also screwed the Ducks over when they had an opportunity to win a 2nd cup. To that I say, "Huzzah!"

The problem with the Edmonton offer sheet from their perspective was that they were not in the position to offer it. The Oilers were coming off a poor season, finishing 11th in the Western Conference. They had just traded their "heart and soul" in Ryan Smyth for a number of prospects and draft picks and had seemingly committed to rebuilding. Then they spent over $4 million dollars a year on Dustin Penner, losing 3 draft picks in the following draft. Strange. Now the Oilers have a weird amalgamation of good young players, overpaid free agents, and aging goaltenders that no one likes. They might make the playoffs but they're not likely to be a favorite at any point in the future and the money given to Penner can't be used on anyone else. The Oilers are a strange team.

The Ducks, on the other hand, were precisely the kind of team that was in a position to poach another team with an offer sheet. The problem, of course, was that they didn't have any money.* The Ducks ended up getting screwed by a problem mostly of their own making because for some weird reason they had signed Todd Bertuzzi and they lost Dustin Penner. This ended up killing them last season because what position did they need to fill the most? 2nd-line left wing, the exact position Penner filled last season. You may wonder why Penner is perfect in this spot yet subpar for the Oilers. One, stop asking questions. Two, when Penner was playing with Getzlaf and Perry he didn't have to bang in the corners (because Getzlaf does that) and he didn't have to fight in front of the net and paw at defenders like a little bitch (because Perry does that). What he could do was hover and find the open space for a Getzlaf pass, and he does that pretty well. Bobby Ryan will most likely fill that position in the future, but by that time Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne will be retired and the Ducks' Stanley Cup window will have temporarily closed. Hooray!

*That's why offer sheets aren't more popular, despite all the hand-wringing by writers and GMs: the teams that would benefit from them are good teams that want one more piece, but those teams are generally near the cap; the teams that can afford to spend the money need the draft picks to rebuild their franchise.

Of course, creating a counterfactual where Dustin Penner stayed on the Ducks creates a whole other set of scenarios: they probably don't sign Mathieu Schneider and they probably trade Andy MacDonald anyway. Maybe they end up trading Penner anyway and get less than the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick they got for him. But overall, I think both teams screwed themselves: the Oilers ended up with an overpaid player that doesn't fit their needs and the Ducks were hurt in one of their last years at being competitive for a Stanley Cup. It's pretty awesome if you think about it. You know, for me. The Oilers are one of those teams that could contend for a few years if they got their act together and I hate the Ducks, and in one fell swoop they managed to destroy each other. Now I just need Erik Johnson to get hurt and the Blackhawks to waste all their cap space on a red-headed goof and the Kings should be all set in the Pacific. Oh wait, that happened? Excellent. *strokes white cat

Brian Burke Week Part 1: Sleek defends three "bad" moves

Hey, everybody! Welcome to Burke Week, where I'll take a scattered look back on what I take to be Brian Burke's legacy in Anaheim. I do have a lot to say about the guy, and rather than cram it all into one post I thought I'd break it into semi-coherent parts throughout the week.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad. For better or worse, opposing fans love to criticize Brian Burke's management style, and at times, the desire to call out Burke for a "bad" move ignores a lot of important context. Burke's first few years, of course, are now left alone because the Ducks won a cup, but since then it seems that critics are all-too-ready to point out where Burke has made his supposed mistakes.

There's really two things to keep in mind when discussing some of these debatable moves, though: (1) Thanks to salary cap mechanics, it's always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to keep a championship team together. I hold little expectation that any cup-winning roster could or should be fully retained -- there's always got to be adaptation and prioritization after a team experiences success. (2) Behind every one of these moves is the decision to allow Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to semi-retire. I'll certainly talk more about this later, but basically if you disagree on giving players that freedom (and would rather Burke forced retirement on them), then probably you won't agree with the validity of these moves, but it is important to understand Burke's underlying motivation.

Lastly, I don't want to overstate things in this post -- I'm not saying that these moves were ideal, by any means. My main point is that they are more tolerable to me than people suggest -- I'm not angry with Burke for making them, at any rate.

1. Waiving Ilya Bryzgalov

Sleek's initial take: It seems absolutely amazing to me that a goaltender with the lowball salary and highball postseason success couldn't be traded in today's league, but I've had low expectations ever since the seemingly poor returns for Tomas Vokoun or Vesa Toskala last summer. As much as it might pain rival fans to admit it, I think the departure of Bryzgalov has very little to do with Scott and Teemu, and really has more to do with Bryzgalov trying to be a #1 and Hiller being promoted to the big leagues.

On paper this sounds horrible, because Breezy was definitely a proven playoff performer, given away to a divisional rival for free. And generally, I’m not in favor of losing assets for nothing. However, you also have to consider the Ducks were locked into J.S. Giguere for four years (including a no-movement clause), and had signed a promising netminder in Jonas Hiller as well. Not only was Breezy prevented from upward movement in the organization, but he was even in the youngster’s way, plus he was due for a raise the next summer. Burke claims that the move was done for Bryzgalov’s benefit, and it’s tough to disbelieve him on that statement, and for sure the goalie-trade market was thin (that’s the inherent irony in goalie salaries: they are no doubt the most important player on the ice, yet there are more than 60 players who could play in the NHL). So Burke ensured that Breezy gets picked up by a bottom team while publicly keeping his word to his netminder – there’s definitely payoff in being a “player first” GM like that, and while there was no trade return, you have to remember that Hiller cost the Ducks nothing either. It seems a relative wash to me, with some good PR on the side.

2. Trading Andy McDonald to St. Louis for Doug Weight

Sleek's initial take: Of course, it's sort of a mistake to look at this just as a McDonald-for-Weight trade, as context is huge for this deal. In return for trading away Andy Mac, the Ducks get Doug Weight, the right to play Scott Niedermayer, the right to keep Mathieu Schneider, and the possibility to sign Teemu Selanne. Even if DeadWeight turns out to be a bust, there's still a lot of trade return there.

Yes, this was salary-necessitated, and yes, I’d rather have Andy Mac than Doug Weight on my team any day. Still, this needs context more than anything. As my quote above suggests, it wasn’t just a one-for-one trade; Andy McDonald was traded for Doug Weight + the tag space to keep Mathieu Schneider + the room to welcome back Scott Niedermayer + the room to later sign Teemu Selanne. The salary side sucked, I guess, but the Ducks by the end of that season had more than $24 million tied into three defensemen plus a goalie – a more expensive team than they could have afforded for a full season. As for success, yeah, there was no Stanley Cup, but in the 48 games after the McDonald/Weight trade (Scotty's return), the Ducks dropped nearly a full goal-against-per-game, and played on a pace that would have won them the President’s Trophy and the Jennings Trophy. Hard to be overly critical of a trade that transformed a .500 team into a top-tier contender.

3. Signing Mathieu Schneider

Sleek's initial take: Brian Burke certainly acted as if Niedermayer's retirement is a sure thing. Think about this: if Scott were to play his contract next year, that would mean that the Ducks' goalie and top four defensemen would cost roughly $26 M next year; that's more than half the salary cap. And then the logical move, oddly enough, would probably be to trade away the newly-signed Schneider.

It’s really tough for me to get angry with Burke for this signing, as it seemed a logical reaction to Scott Niedermayer’s effective retirement. It didn’t pan out, obviously, and did put the Ducks in a heck of a salary cap crunch at the end of last summer, but I think the signing made sense in its context and Schneidermayer certainly knew what a potential salary mess he was getting himself into. What clouds this issue somewhat is the poor start that Schneider has had in Atlanta -- certainly his numbers suggest that he is washed up. However, I'd guess that he's being mis-used on the Thrashers; for the past few seasons Schneider has been an extremely effective weapon in easy minutes, playing behind a Nick Lidstrom or a Chris Pronger. In Anaheim, Schneider certainly had a solid year: At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. While certainly the team would have been easier to manage last season without Schneider's salary on the books, Burke saw a gaping hole on his blueline and reacted to it. In retrospect, the signing proved excessive, but at the time when Niedermayer's retirement seemed believable enough, I think Burke got a decent replacement option off the UFA market, and that's not something I'll spend too much time criticizing.

So there you have it, three moves that I don't criticize Burke for (at least, not to the extent that others do). Agree or disagree with my assessments, or do you have another example of your own? Feel free to leave it in the comments. Then stay tuned for Burke Week Part II (possibly tomorrow?), where I'll point out some moves where I am more critical on Burke's decision-making.

Go Ducks.

BoC Gameday—Prelude to Burke Week

Los Angeles Kings (7-7-2, t-11th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (9-7-2, 5th in west)
That strange silence you're hearing is a quiet general manager.

Over the next week, I will be writing a series of posts looking back on the legacy of Brian Burke in Anaheim -- moves I liked, moves I didn't like, plus some general observations -- so yeah, look forward to that. For now, though, all I'll say is that I'm fine with the timing of the move, as there's not a lot of GMing that can really be done with the rest this year's roster. The Ducks are so close to the cap ceiling that there's not much to do except (a) promote Bobby Ryan and (b) re-sign some key players before next summer.

We'll get to (a) in a second, but really the re-signing aspect is the key one: once Burke turned down a contract extension, next year's roster became Bob Murray's concern, and better to put that person in charge now than to wait until the offseason. Incidentally, I don't expect to learn very much about Bob Murray's GM tendencies until next summer; for now it's still pretty much Burke's team, and the only clues we'll have about Murray in the coming months will likely be in the form of which UFAs get re-signed and which do not.

Ah, this PuckToon I drew last June seems appropriate.
(It's not as if I've never stolen from work before.)
I missed Friday's game against the Predators, so I was caught off-guard by the announcement that Frenchie Beauchemin will be out six months with a torn ACL. The ramifications of this seem to be twofold: (a) Bobby Ryan and Ryan Festerling got promoted from the AHL under long-term-injury cap relief, and (b) Scott Niedermayer will be getting a new minute-eating defense partner. I hesitate to say who will be getting the promotion, but I think I'd give Steve Montador a shot at some top-four duty -- he's a guy who's been impressing me with his overall game and could play anchor to Niedermayer's roamer game.

As for Bobby Ryan, now's the opportunity for the kid to step up to the big leagues -- on paper, he potentially gives the Ducks a set of six legitimate top-six forwards (sorry Marchant, one of the requirements is "hands") for the first time this season. Between Kunitz-Getzlaf-Perry and Ryan-Morrison-Selanne, I'll be interested to see how the Ducks' offense operates. It may just provide the positivity to offset the downside of losing Beauchemin.

Prediction: Tonight Sleek's lucky green shirt is going up to the Honda Center rafters (translation: I'll be sitting in the nosebleeds), as some hockey-playing friends of mine have taken advantage of a Ducks promotion -- sell enough upper deck seats and they get to play a short beer league-style game on Honda Center ice after the Ducks and Kings end. So if you see a green shirt during the game in Section 430, Row J, feel free to say hi, or if you're bored after the game and want to see some amateurs play, I'll be in the lower bowl for that. Ducks 4, Kings 2. Goals by Ryan (x2), Pahlsson, and Getzlaf.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: Look, a Duck

LA Kings (7-6-2) vs. Nashville Predators (8-7-1)

7:30 PST, FSN West



Prediction: Kings win, 4-3. I take a nap.

Bye Bye Burkie

Well, so much for that Bucket List.

I certainly didn't see this coming this fast, and I don't have much time for reaction today, but here's the link.

I'll have a proper good-bye for the guy at some point, but for now, welcome to the new Ducks' GM, Bob Murray. Sleek = Stunned.

Go Ducks.

[Update, 11:40 am. Per the Star's Damien Cox (link via KK), Burke reportedly will stay on as a consultant with the Ducks until the end of this season. More to come after the press conference.]

[Update, 1:10 pm. James Mirtle has some quotes from the press conference, but generally it wasn't very enlightening at all. I expect Burke's next press conference, whenever it comes, to reveal a lot more of what his future holds.]

[Update, 2:40 pm. Nobody can keep up with Puck Daddy. A nice piece looking at the Anaheim tenure of Burke, plus some looking ahead to what he might face in Toronto.

[Update, 2:50 pm. Probably my last update today, but the OC Register has many more Burke quotes, and expects Burke to remain with the team for one or two more weeks before being given permission to talk to other clubs about future employment.]

[Update, 10:50 pm. Oh yeah, and here's what I wrote about the rumo"u"r of Burke leaving five months ago.]

The 16-Game Sniff Test: How do the Sharks measure up?

As the Sharks have racked up points to start this season, I've had my attention fixed on where they'd sit after the sixteen game mark. Why sixteen games, you ask? For one, it does represent the first 20% of the season, but more importantly, it's where I mentally set the bar two years ago when the Ducks finally suffered a regulation loss in Game 17.

This originally was going to be a comparison of just the 06-07 Ducks and the 08-09 Sharks, but since I started mulling the idea I've been reminded that it's not just the Ducks that started their season on fire en route to a Stanley Cup. Here's a look at the last four cup winners have performed in their (mostly) first sixteen games, with the Sharks thrown in for comparison. In the right-hand column I have included each team's record through 60 minutes -- probably more indicative of projected postseason play.

Overall Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning*	11-2-2-1, 25 pts 0.781	47 – 29 = 18 2.94 – 1.81 = 1.13	14 / 78 17.9%	7 / 64 89.1%	10-2-4, 24 pts 0.750
05-06 Hurricanes**	12-2-1, 25 pts 0.833	59 – 38 = 21 3.93 – 2.53 = 1.40	21 / 96 21.9%	15 / 81 81.5%	10-2-3, 23 pts 0.767
06-07 Ducks	12-0-4, 28 pts 0.875	57 – 32 = 25 3.56 – 2.00 = 1.56	18 / 86 20.9%	10 / 92 89.1%	9-0-7, 25 pts 0.781
07-08 Red Wings	13-2-1, 27 pts 0.844	54 – 33 = 21 3.38 – 2.06 = 1.31	18 / 77 23.4%	10 / 85 88.2%	11-2-3, 25 pts 0.781
08-09 Sharks	13-3-0, 26 pts 0.813	52 – 38 = 14 3.25 – 2.38 = 0.88	13 / 80 16.3%	9 / 61 85.2%	10-3-3, 23 pts 0.719

* Remember when standings used to have four columns? For those of us who need reminding (I sure did!), the Lightning had 2 ties and 1 overtime loss in their first 16.
** I gave the Hurricanes a break and only showed their first 15 games. In Game 16, the Atlanta Thrashers smoked the 'Canes 9-0 in Raleigh and threw off all the statistics. Mentally add it if you must.

First off, I want to caution reading too much into these comparisons: sixteen games guarantees absolutely nothing except a leg up on a playoff position, and there's no real need for the Sharks to outperform any of these prior cup winners -- San Jose won't be facing these lineups this year.

Secondly, I want to emphasize more about comparisons with the Ducks and Red Wings, and less about the Lightning and Hurricanes. I included the Southeast winners because they did reinforce the pattern, but their Cup Finals were a bit unique -- meeting a bottom seed in the west and requiring a seventh game at home to seize their prize. No offense, but the Ducks and Wings represent teams that cruised to victory over more traditional Finals opponents, and their regular seasons were more similar to today's NHL.

Thirdly, we should always keep in mind sample size -- sixteen games is meaningful, but stats still can certainly be affected by an outlier game. With that in mind, here's the home and road splits, which represent even fewer games :)
Home Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	8-1-1-1, 18 pts 0.818	37 – 20 = 17 3.36 – 1.82 = 1.55	11 / 62 17.7%	5 / 47 89.4%	7-1-3, 17 pts 0.773
05-06 Hurricanes	7-0-0, 14 pts 1.000	30 – 18 = 12 4.29 – 2.57 = 1.71	10 / 48 20.8%	9 / 43 79.1%	5-0-2, 12 pts 0.857
06-07 Ducks	7-0-3, 17 pts 0.850	37 – 22 = 15 3.70 – 2.20 = 1.50	13 / 59 22.0%	7 / 58 87.9%	6-0-4, 16 pts 0.800
07-08 Red Wings	7-1-0, 14 pts 0.875	26 – 15 = 11 3.25 – 1.88 = 1.38	10 / 43 23.3%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-1-2, 12 pts 0.750
08-09 Sharks	9-0-0, 18 pts 1.000	32 – 17 = 15 3.56 – 1.89 = 1.67	6 / 47 12.8%	4 / 31 87.1%	7-0-2, 16 pts 0.889

Road Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	3-1-1-0, 7 pts 0.700	10 – 9 = 1 2.00 – 1.80 = 0.20	3 / 16 18.8%	2 / 17 88.2%	3-1-1, 7 pts 0.700
05-06 Hurricanes	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688	29 – 20 = 9 3.63 – 2.50 = 1.13	11 / 48 22.9%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688
06-07 Ducks	5-0-1, 11 pts 0.917	20 – 10 = 10 3.33 – 1.67 = 1.67	5 / 27 18.5%	3 / 34 91.2%	3-0-3, 9 pts 0.750
07-08 Red Wings	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813	28 – 18 = 10 3.50 – 2.25 = 1.25	8 / 34 23.5%	4 / 47 91.5%	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813
08-09 Sharks	4-3-0, 8 pts 0.571	20 – 21 = -1 2.86 – 3.00 = -0.14	7 / 33 21.2%	5 / 30 83.3%	3-3-1, 7 pts 0.500

Takeaways: If the sixteen-game sniff test bears out, the Sharks are certainly keeping pace with Cup darlings from years past. Their goal-differential and special teams seem a little lower than the winners' trend, but it's certainly not an alarming difference.

One thing I didn't include on these tables was shot differential -- on average, the Sharks outshoot their opponents by a margin of 37 - 25, which is a whopping difference. Only last year's Red Wings on this list were able to match that for their first 16 games (34.5 - 22.4); the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were all only slightly ahead of their opponents in that regard. This is one reason I'm not too critical of the goal-differential and special teams for the Sharks; it seems like it's more a matter of luck than anything.

If you're looking for a spot of potential mediocrity, though, it might be in the Sharks' road record, which is only .500 through regulation (again, small sample size). Still, winning on the road is one thing that the other Cup winners did very well in their season starts, and that ability served them well enough in the postseason. I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point, Sharks fans, but it's something to pay attention to as the season continues along.

From the Ducks' point of view, there is one other key difference to note about the 06-07 Ducks' start and the 08-09 Sharks: the chasers. Even with the Ducks starting 12-0-4, they barely had any divisonal lead to speak of -- the Dallas Stars at that point were 12-4-0 and the Sharks were 12-5-0. It was an incredible start by all three Pacific teams. This year, the Sharks are being followed by the Ducks (2 games above .500) and the Coyotes (1 game above .500), and the immediate threat of being caught is enormously lessened.

I'm not crowning any champions today, and I'm not ruling out any team from next spring's Cup -- by the time the playoffs roll around, I'll care much more about how the last 80% of the season went than the first 20%, but I had the numbers fairly handy and I thought I'd show the comparison stats.


Question for readers: Why does this pattern exist? Does a fast start give a team any particular edge coming out of a long season, or is it just the case that excellent teams tend to have good starts and tend to win Cups? Also, seeing the comparison, what likelihood would you give these Sharks of becoming champions this coming spring? If you have any observations or theories you want to add (or have any questions about the underlying numbers), feel free to throw them in the comments.

Ducks Gameday—Sleek starts a campaign

Florida Panthers (4-8-1, 15th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (9-6-1, 3rd in west)
The truth about cats and birds.

I don't have anything to say about tonight's matchup against the Cats, but I do want to recommend The Litter Box, a Panthers-themed hockey blog that I enjoy thoroughly. Whale4Ever mixes his hockey updates with plenty of awesome images and plenty of snark, and I'm much more pro-Cat thanks to his efforts. Rock on, dude.

Instead, I wanted to ride the coattails of the campaign fever that's been taking over BoC, between Mike Chen's push for Seto/Gooch to the All-Star Game and Rudy Kelly's Doughty for the Calder Trophy movement that's just picking up steam. Well, just because I'm apolitical and anti-voting doesn't mean that I don't care about important issues, and there's certainly one movement I'd like to throw my negligible weight behind. As a bonus, it's not even anything I have to convince you readers to do—the primary audience for this message is for just one person only: Brian Burke.

C'mon, Burkie, you know that Sammy would re-sign you.
As you know, Brian Burke is probably headed elsewhere next year, and I've already stated that he's got my blessing—at least he's left the team in a flexible enough salary position next year that a replacement GM won't be cap-cramped to start the new job. Here's who the Ducks currently have under salary for next year, with everyone else a free agent:

Forwards: Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Selanne, Carter, Ryan + some Bertuzzi money
Defensemen: Pronger
Goalies: Giguere, Hiller

Combined, it comes to some $32.5 M, which is a bit pricy, but at least some expensive positions are pre-filled (goaltending, scoring forwards, top d-man). Well, over the next few weeks I plan on coming up with Burke's Bucket List: a list of items I'd like to see Burke do before hitting "greener pastures" next summer.

First and foremost is re-signing Sammy Pahlsson, who of course I could write volumes about (as we'll see once this campaign really gets rolling), but for now, let's just focus on the penalty killing. Since Burke took over the team, the Ducks have taken strange pride in their ability to take penalties, and Pahlsson has quietly shouldered the brunt of that. Since the lockout (regular season only), Sammy has played nearly 1,103 shorthanded minutes, which is the seventh highest total in the league behind Bouwmeester, Phillips, Lidstrom, Havelid, Chara, and Keith -- all defensemen. His total is 222 more minutes than the next highest forward, Ottawa's Chris Kelly (note: this was a hasty study just looking at just the top 90 minute-getters for each season, but I think it's correct).

So Burke, you owe it to Ducks fans, Ducks players, and especially to Sammy himself -- four more years, dude. I'm not even going to make a recommendation on dollars; whatever it takes is fine by me -- even if it's an overpayment, we still probably owe Sammy for the harsh service he's endured for the past four years.

So anyway, that's the start of my campaign; more to come in future posts. Feel free to lend your support in the comments.

* * *

More Tragedy in the Oilogosphere: You'll of course recall last month's incident between DMFB and the Oilers pressbox that led to Dave's departure from hockey blogging. Well, now the damage is doubled. Mike W, another CiO contributor and inspiration for my hockey blogging has likewise decided to give up his posting, and again, I am crushed by the news.

Mikey, please keep visiting, and trust me, I'll post anything you draw. And don't give up the Chamber of Comics -- it's sheer awesomeness, at least the parts that Internet Explorer will let me see.

I would be remiss if I didn't link to this -- pretty much the best thing any hockey blogger has ever done, ever.

* * *

And lastly, part two of my interview with Tom L. and Tapeleg from The Rink Podcast has now been posted, and this time it's Sleek from start to finish. Lots covered there, from some philosophy of what this blog is all about to remeniscing on the 2003 Cup run, and some follow-up thoughts about Paul Kariya. Enjoy!

Prediction: Ducks 3, Cats 1. Goals by Kunitz, Pahlsson (shorthanded, I'm sure), and Carter.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Texasperation

Dallas Stars (4-6-2, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (9-5-1, 2nd in west)
Can the Stars re-discover the success they left here last spring?

I can't really tell you what's going wrong with the Dallas Stars this season, as I have yet to even watch a single game. Still, the spreadsheets will tell you, you don't have to look much past the 50 goals allowed in just 12 games. To put that in perspective, the Philadelphia Flyers currently lead the league in goal-scoring at 3.67 goals-per-game (excludes shootouts). The Stars are giving up goals at a rate of 4.17 goals-per-game, half a goal higher than any team can manage offensively.

There's probably plenty of culprits -- Avery and Brunnstrom not adequately replacing Hagman and Miettinen, the absence of Sergei Zubov (who I think returns to the team tonight, along with Mark Parrish), and of course the guy between the pipes.

Marty Turkey. 4.34 GAA, .837 Sv%.
Still, it's still a young season, and it's certainly possible the Stars work a Ducks-style turnaround. It might not even be that bad a time for the Stars to visit Anaheim and San Jose, where they eliminated the BoC last spring. It's going to be important that the Ducks and Sharks avoid thinking too much about revenge in these first meetings, though; the way to really hurt the Stars is to send them home without a win.

The Stars are 3-1 this year when allowing 3 goals or fewer; that's a good winning percentage for that cutoff, though certainly an embarrassingly low number of instances. One other strange sidenote about tonight's game: the Stars for some reason will become the last team this season to play an opponent from their own division. I guess that's one thing a Stars fan can take solace in: there's still time to make plenty of noise in the Pacific.

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I'll be at tonight's game, enjoying my own version of the "Rinkside View" from the Row B seats, look for me in my lucky green shirt. I'll be with my dad and his friends, so it will probably be a muted version of Drinky Sleek, but feel free to say hi if you see me.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Stars 2. Goals by Perry, Scotty, Pahlsson, and Travis "the Omen" Moen.

Go Ducks.