Ducks Gameday—The Three Patos!

Columbus Blue Jackets (11-12-3, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (14-10-3, t-4th in west)
No, we will not die like dogs! We will fight like lions!

"Three Patos, Anaheim, California. You are very great. 100,000 pesos. Come to Santa Poco, put on show, stop. The Infamous El Guapo."

In a way, each of us has an El Guapo to face.
Sometimes that El Guapo is the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Prediction: Ducks 4, Jackets 2. Goals by Little Neddy Niedermayer, Dusty Pronger, Lucky Day Selanne, and Santa Poco resident Pahlsson. Together they prune the hedges of many small villages. For your El Guapo coverage, go visit Bethany's Hockey Rants.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—The Avery Impact

Anaheim Ducks (14-9-3, 3rd in west) at Chicago Blackhawks (10-6-6, t-7th in west)
How much will this post cost me in karma dollars?

Instead of talking up this Chicago rematch, I'm going to throw my two rambly cents in on the Avery suspension. I don't like it.

Now don't get me wrong; there's a lot to dislike about Avery, including this recent set of inflammatory remarks, but you have to recognize Avery for what he is -- a sensationalist media creation. Over the years, reporters have glorified his personality and encouraged his bad boy behavior (which I can understand -- NHLers are generally too boring for newsstands). And that's the thing -- I do believe Avery's statements were intended more to feed the hungry media than they were to hurt Dion Phaneuf / Elisha Cuthbert's feelings. He was doing what he was expected to do -- agitate and entertain -- and more or less in the manner that he was trained to do.

It wasn't out of line with the media characterization that was built up over his career, nor with the persona that the Stars signed last summer. I dunno, it's like giving a dog a treat for coming inside six days a week but then beating it for doing so on Sunday -- maybe there was a vague line that was crossed, but I don't think Avery thought he was "detrimental to the League". If anything, he was promoting the league in the best way he knew how.

Sure, it's not normally acceptable behavior to be calling out players for their love lives, and we can debate the shock value of the words "sloppy seconds" compared to other word choices, but it's not as if this elephant wasn't already in the room -- Avery did manage to get himself in trouble without naming a single name. In a practical sense, Avery took a topic that dozens of hockey writers have already made crude jokes about and then shockingly made one himself.

In short, Avery was Avery, and the NHL suspended him for it without any strong precedent. As an isolated incident involving a rival team, I probably don't care about this that much, but I do worry about where it leads. We're already in a period where player interviews are purposefully bland and carefully measured, and while Avery is certainly not the model of ideal media interaction, he was different from the robotic mold and punished because of it. Going forward I think the NHL should probably publish a list of do-not-discuss guidelines -- it's a sham that they can't define a social barrier until after it's been crossed. Even so, as I point out in the cartoon, I suspect we'll see even less personality in front of a microphone from players in the future, and that general insincerity will probably be another barrier between the players and the fans, and that's sort of a shame.

Sean Avery is no hero, and I don't mean to present him as even a likeable figure, but it's really tough for me to see the rationale for the league's suspension. I think it's a dangerous path to discourage personality in front of the microphone without any specific guidelines, and we're probably in for a blander NHL as a result (though in fairness, we were probably in for that anyway). Anyways, I'm open to being convinced -- feel free to agree or disagree or add your own two cents in the comments.

And now to the part where Sleek gets suspended:

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Listen, I love Canada. It's just when it comes to Battle of Ontario teams hiring head coaches and general managers, they really seem to have fallen in love with Anaheim's sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about.



Ron Wilson, Craig Hartsburg, Bryan Murray, and Brian Burke --
That pretty much spans the entirety of Anaheim's history right there.
Prediction: Last Friday the Ducks and Hawks skated to a 1-0 game in Anaheim, so I suspect Hiller might get the start tonight, but there's no real wrong answer in net right now. The Ducks do need to start scoring some goals, though, so let's say Ducks 5, Hawks 3. Goals by Getzlaf x2, S. Niedermayer, Pahlsson, and Perry.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Streak Comparison: This Season vs. Last

Anaheim Ducks (14-8-3, 3rd in west) at Detroit Red Wings (15-4-4, 2nd in west)
Battle of the Hangovers

For today's post I threw together a comparison table looking at how the Ducks and Red Wings have been performing compared to a specific stretch of games last season. For the Ducks, the selected stretches have been hand-picked from each season:

07-08: the first 19 games after Scott Niedermayer returned to the lineup.
08-09: the most recent 19 games (excluding the 1-5-0 first six games).

I decided to stick to stretches where the Ducks have been performing well points-wise. In the 07-08 stretch, the Ducks went 12-5-2; in the 08-09 stretch the Ducks went 13-3-3. For the Red Wings, the selection is much more straightforward:

07-08: the first 23 games of the season.
08-09: the first 23 games of the season.

This one's much more obvious: I'm just looking at how Detroit's "hangover" start (15-4-4) compares to its season start from last year (15-6-2). Now I don't want to read too much into these early-season comparisons, but I think it's worth noting that while each of these teams have actually improved their ability to accumulate standings points (for a stretch, anyways), a lot of the underlying numbers have gotten worse. Let's take a look:


Note: excludes shootout goals. Click image to enlarge.
Patterns: For both the Ducks and Red Wings, the current-year versions have been surrendering way more goals than they did last year -- each team is giving up around 2/3 an extra goal-per-game, with some of that comes from a declining penalty kill. Each team has found a way to generate wins despite a shakier defense, though, mainly through an improved team offense.

Offensively, one of the keys has been each team's power play, which has for each team produced more power play goals in fewer power play opportunities than the year before. Overall, each team has improved its offense, though not by the same margin that the defensive numbers have changed; each team this year has a worse goal-differential-per-game than the previous year.

Shot analysis shows a similar story: shots-for per game are marginally improved, but shots-against per game have increased even further; the net shot differential has gotten worse this year for both squads (the Ducks, in fact, are now typically outshot).

So basically, what does this mean? Both squads have shown an improved ability to accumulate standings points this year vs. last year despite some declines in the differential statistics and underlying numbers -- in a way, this suggests that the current win pattern is a bit illusory. I'd expect that each team would have gotten worse results with the current year's statistics, but at least so far, that hasn't really been the case. I wouldn't worry about these patterns just yet for either team (there is absolutely nothing wrong with illusory win streaks in November), but here's some open-ended questions for the comments:

• Why do you think these teams have continued to win despite worsened statistics: is there something to the notion of "knowing how to win all styles of hockey" where these veteran rosters are capable of adjusting to a more free-flowing game?


• What do you see as the primary drivers for the change in offensive and defensive numbers for these teams? Are opponents treating them differently, or are these squads more careless than they used to be?


• Going forward, what do you expect out of each team? Will the numbers eventually tighten up, or is this an offense-friendly evolution for the Ducks and Red Wings? If the statistics do not tighten up, can these teams continue winning the way they currently are?

Food for thought, anyway.

Prediction: Now that I've demonstrated a more offense-friendly tendency for both the Ducks and Red Wings, we're probably in for a tight defensive battle tonight. Ducks 2, Wings 1. Goals by Ryan and Pahlsson. For your Wings coverage, there's always A2Y, Winging it in Motown, and On the Wings.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #5: Finale

Colorado Avalanche (9-10-0, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (11-8-3, t-4th in west)


Ah, we finally arrive at the conclusary installment of Burke Week, a five-day gander back at the Anaheim legacy of Brian Burke.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad.
Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.
Part III: Nothing but shout-outs.
Part IV: What I like about Burke the roster-builder.

And now we arrive at Part V: Scattered final thoughts, where I squeeze everything I've missed into a final post for the series. We'll start with some counterpoint: Two things that I didn't like about Burke the roster-builder.

Regret One: Europe, Where Art Thou?

Since Brian Burke's second year in Anaheim, there has been a fairly rigid three-player maximum on players from Europe -- Teemu Selanne from Finland, Sammy Pahlsson from Sweden, and the back-up goalie (first Ilya Bryzgalov from Russia, now Jonas Hiller from Switzerland), but before Burke arrived, Anaheim used to be a melting pot. Burke rid the team of Vitaly Vishnevski (Russia), Ruslan Salei (Belarus), Niclas Havelid (Sweden), Sandis Ozolinsh (Latvia), Petr Sykora (Czech Republic), Sergei Fedorov (Russia), and Ladislav Smid (Czech Republic), among others. Think about this: in 2003 the Ducks went to the Stanley Cup Finals with zero Canadians on their blueline. In 2007 the Ducks won the Stanley Cup with zero non-Canadians on their blueline.

It became very clear over Burke's tenure what sort of player he was building around -- skilled or not, he wanted North American skaters in nearly every roster slot. Now I don't want to attack this mindset too badly -- you can still make an impressive team from mostly one continent. However, one only had to look at the success of Swedish forwards on Detroit or the Finnish forwards on Dallas (or really, the European contribution to any team's success) to see that Burke's one-continent focus was biased against plenty of world-class talent.

It's one reason that I'm not upset to see Brian Burke leave -- he certainly did very good work while he was here, but I don't think too many years of Europe-phobia is good for an NHL franchise. By artificially limiting the available talent pool, the Ducks seemingly ignored a source for creativity and puck control -- and I think that they would be well-served to reintroduce that intercontinental element into their post-Burke philosophy. I just hope that Bob Murray has an open mind to the contributions of overseas players; I think it's an element the Ducks have been missing.

Regret Two: How Bad is Burke at the Entry Draft?

I don't follow prospects that well, so I can't really tell you how much more barren Anaheim's prospect pool is compared to when Burke arrived, but I assume it's been rather depleted. One of the problems, I assume, is Brian Burke's draft record, which will have to be judged in future years, but based on reputation and what I have seen looks unimpressive thus far.

I guess the indicting argument against Burke's draft record is that I believe Bobby Ryan and Brett Festerling represent the only players that Burke has drafted that have tasted NHL ice, and Ryan was selected in a high-expectation slot (2nd overall, one spot behind Sidney Crosby). I'm definitely not an expert here, but I'd expect that a draft-savvier GM would have accumulated more NHL-ready players by now (though granted, a lot of Anaheim's top picks were sent to Edmonton in the Pronger deal). I think it's premature for any hard criticism here (and a lot may be based on Bobby Ryan alone), but so far, it's tough to spot where Burke's draft record has served the Ducks very much.

Of course, there is a flipside to this criticism, which is that Burke has demonstrated that it's possible to build teams almost entirely outside of the draft -- the 2007 cup squad had very few players who were actually drafted by Anaheim (I believe Getzlaf, Perry, and Bryzgalov). Also, with Dave McNab finding lots of talent outside the draft (Anaheim's undrafted talent includes Andy McDonald, Dustin Penner, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Shannon, Ryan Carter, and Jonas Hiller), perhaps the importance of the draft is overstated. Still, the entry draft is a definite source to replenish talent, and it may prove that Burke's draft mediocrity hampers the Ducks in the near future.

But let's not overlook the upside.

I don't want to end Burke Week on all sour notes, though. Even with his drawbacks, Burke did transform the team's image from a Disney sidestory into one of the west's top teams. Burke became a source for franchise legitimacy -- I don't know if the team lands a Scott Niedermayer or a Chris Pronger without the presence of Brian Burke, and I don't know if a Mathieu Schneider or a Brendan Morrison even seriously considers the franchise as a signing option. Burke had the clout to trade away a high-priced Sergei Fedorov and a high-priced Mathieu Schneider for spare parts, and the bravery to stand behind moves like the waiving of Ilya Bryzgalov.

Basically, no matter his flaws and strengths, Burke was a high-profile GM and hockey personality, and he added relevance to the Anaheim Ducks. His coming to SoCal legitimized the franchise and fixed its focus on winning, and without that, the team's fortunes could have gone in a very different direction -- probably one without a Stanley Cup. There's definitely been some baggage to Brian Burke, but the upside has been pretty spectacular.

What I'll miss most about Brian Burke:
What I'll miss least about Brian Burke:

The answer to both of these is his mouth, which has definitely been a regular source for amusement, but also has diverted many of my blogging man-hours to defending the guy's often-malicious quotes. For better or worse, there is no topic in hockey that Brian Burke is too timid to discuss, usually with the spirit of antagonism. There's no doubt that I'm going to miss that mouth -- it sure beats the usual media-timidness that most hockey personalities have, but I won't lie. It's also going to be nice to have a little less controversy coming from the GM's mouth, as well.

Entertaining quotes occasionally do come at a price, not only in terms of franchise perception but also with burnt bridges as well. Anyone want to put an over/under on the number of months before we see another Anaheim-Edmonton trade?

A classic example of Burke's mouth making headlines.
Bottom Line: Overall, I'm a huge Burke supporter, even though over Burke Week I've split my positives and negatives pretty evenly. The upsides to having a strong-willed GM far outweigh the drawbacks (though it's important to remember those, as well). As a Ducks blogger, I've never had much desire to interview Ducks players (though nobody's really given me any opportunity) -- generally, I am disgusted enough with bland cliches that I don't think I'd do very well in that setting. That said, I would have loved to have an opportunity to interview Brian Burke -- even though the interview would have been generally awful (I'd probably conduct it at a bar and wouldn't write or record anything), I imagine shooting the shit with Burke would be ten times as entertaining as doing the same with any player.

Ultimately, Burke built a Stanley Cup Champion team in Anaheim, and nothing should take away from that. We'll miss you, Burkie, and wish you limited success in Toronto/wherever.

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So that's the scattered last chapter of my Burke Week -- I definitely had a lot to say about the guy and what he did in Anaheim. For the comments, what's your final analysis? What grade would you give Brian Burke for his GM job in Anaheim, and how much do you think he will be missed? Any final thoughts are welcome in the comments.

Prediction: Ducks win 4-2. Goals by Ryan, Getzlaf, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #4: GM Lessons from a Cup Champ

Anaheim Ducks (10-8-2, 7th in west) at St. Louis Blues (6-8-2, 15th in west)
Ducks had better have a better start or somebody's going to the dentist!

So for Part IV of this series, I thought I'd take a look at some of the ways that Burke was a very good general manager -- things that worked for the Ducks not only on their Cup run but also looking forward. Think of these as a bit of a primer for good ol' Bob Murray, or more accurately, Part IV: What I like about Burke the roster-builder.

Lesson One: If you want depth, don't acquire depth players; instead insert talent at the top of your roster.

While I've stated before that I’m not overly impressed that Burke had the "wisdom" to acquire Niedermayer, Selanne, or Pronger, I don’t want to take away from the fact that Burke knew what he was going after – a superstar. His focus wasn’t on filling in his roster with supplementary depth players, though he certainly put those pieces in place as well; he was looking to acquire top-flight players for the top end of his roster and let his existing roster form the depth. Not only was a superstar able to drop players down to more manageable roles, but Carlyle could even form a legitimate pairing with Scott Niedermayer and a league-minimum Francois Beauchemin, for example, and further benefit from an all-star's abilities. In a nutshell, if you ask me how Burke was able to build a cup winner, the answer is that he took a franchise with a lot of supporting parts and inserted talent at the top. By doing so, he made everyone more effective.

Lesson Two: Shelter your kids – It’s good for them and it’s good for you.

I think the way Getzlaf and Perry were brought into the league was phenomenal. Their rookie year they were played as fourth-liners, with Todd Fedoruk watching their backs – a very no-pressure environment to learn the ropes of the NHL. To effectively remove them from Calder consideration, they were even demoted for a month or so to the AHL Pirates, but played together throughout. Their sophomore year they moved up to second-liners, still sheltered from top defenders (Selanne drew those matchups) and top scorers (Pahlsson of course got those). That year was of course the cup year, so needless to say it worked out well. Then finally last year, their contract year, they were given responsibilities as top-liners, and having been groomed for the role they delivered. The payoff to the Ducks was two well-prepared top-liners who not only proved their abilities but also signed at reasonable rates ($5.6 million apiece, which certainly could have been worse). That salary in part has to do with their limited time on the top line – by holding them back not only were they better prepared but also had less career points come contract time. This also holds true for Bobby Ryan, who I can only speculate on his worth, but will certainly have limited NHL exposure come contract time two summers from now. It will be interesting to see how good Bobby Ryan becomes, or how prepared for NHL duty he is, and how much his sheltering pays off in his next contract for Anaheim.

Lesson Three: Be true to your players and they’ll be true to you.

I can't think of one time Brian Burke didn’t righteously stand up for one of his players in Anaheim – no matter how stupid or how idiotic it was. It’s one reason Brian Burke is as hated as he is by rival fans, but probably one reason why players seem so loyal to him. Whether it’s Bertuzzi’s suckerpunch, Pronger’s elbows or skateblade, Selanneidermayer’s semi-retirements, or even softer stuff like Giguere dealing with his baby’s health – Burke is front-and-center deflecting criticism and supporting his guys. He’s done seemingly honorable things in waiving Bryzgalov and proving Giguere with a no-movement clause, and I think there's payoff to those moves -- I know players are loathe to say anything controversial, but I haven't heard any player critical of Burke, even guys who have left under tough circumstances (Penner, McDonald, Schneider, Bertuzzi). Whether or not fans like or dislike what Brian Burke has to say, it does seem that players do respond favorably to it, and I think that perception is helpful in luring free agents to sign or players to re-sign.

Lesson Four: No Long-Term Deals ... Flexibility = Positivity!

This is a big one for me, too. Brian Burke has committed to two 5-year deals (Getzlaf and Perry), four 4-year deals (both Niedermayers, Kunitz, and Giguere), and only a few 3-year deals (McDonald and Carter, notably). He’s also acquired two deals with 4 years remaining (Marchant and Pronger). He’s stayed away from mammoth-year contracts, though, and I’m glad he’s done so. Burke hasn’t crippled rosters seven or eight years from now, and that has to be the wise move -- with a changing NHL landscape and a newly-implemented salary cap, it's tough to foresee what player values will be five years down the road. Now don't get me wrong -- I'm not against all long-term deals (I once advocated a fifteen-year deal for Getzlaf), but I'm glad it's not a crutch that Burke used to lure players to Anaheim. I think GMs who do that are selfish -- they are trying to win now while risking their franchise's ability to win in the future (partially it's because of mixed motivations -- the roster seven years from now is likely going to be a replacement GM's problem). So while many like to say that Burke has ruined the Ducks, it doesn't seem a long-term problem; in two or three years there will hardly be any Burke contracts on the books at all.

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So that's some of the positive GM lessons that Burke has demonstrated; if you feel like I've missed anything, feel free to add your own lesson from Burke in the comments. Part V I'll try to do a wrap-up; some GM lessons I didn't like, what I'll miss most and least about the guy (first in both categories: his mouth), and a conclusion.

Prediction: Bob Murray's Ducks 5, Andy Murray's Blues 2. Goals by Perry, Ryan, Morrison, Pahlsson, and Montador.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

BoC Gameday—Prelude to Burke Week

Los Angeles Kings (7-7-2, t-11th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (9-7-2, 5th in west)
That strange silence you're hearing is a quiet general manager.

Over the next week, I will be writing a series of posts looking back on the legacy of Brian Burke in Anaheim -- moves I liked, moves I didn't like, plus some general observations -- so yeah, look forward to that. For now, though, all I'll say is that I'm fine with the timing of the move, as there's not a lot of GMing that can really be done with the rest this year's roster. The Ducks are so close to the cap ceiling that there's not much to do except (a) promote Bobby Ryan and (b) re-sign some key players before next summer.

We'll get to (a) in a second, but really the re-signing aspect is the key one: once Burke turned down a contract extension, next year's roster became Bob Murray's concern, and better to put that person in charge now than to wait until the offseason. Incidentally, I don't expect to learn very much about Bob Murray's GM tendencies until next summer; for now it's still pretty much Burke's team, and the only clues we'll have about Murray in the coming months will likely be in the form of which UFAs get re-signed and which do not.

Ah, this PuckToon I drew last June seems appropriate.
(It's not as if I've never stolen from work before.)
I missed Friday's game against the Predators, so I was caught off-guard by the announcement that Frenchie Beauchemin will be out six months with a torn ACL. The ramifications of this seem to be twofold: (a) Bobby Ryan and Ryan Festerling got promoted from the AHL under long-term-injury cap relief, and (b) Scott Niedermayer will be getting a new minute-eating defense partner. I hesitate to say who will be getting the promotion, but I think I'd give Steve Montador a shot at some top-four duty -- he's a guy who's been impressing me with his overall game and could play anchor to Niedermayer's roamer game.

As for Bobby Ryan, now's the opportunity for the kid to step up to the big leagues -- on paper, he potentially gives the Ducks a set of six legitimate top-six forwards (sorry Marchant, one of the requirements is "hands") for the first time this season. Between Kunitz-Getzlaf-Perry and Ryan-Morrison-Selanne, I'll be interested to see how the Ducks' offense operates. It may just provide the positivity to offset the downside of losing Beauchemin.

Prediction: Tonight Sleek's lucky green shirt is going up to the Honda Center rafters (translation: I'll be sitting in the nosebleeds), as some hockey-playing friends of mine have taken advantage of a Ducks promotion -- sell enough upper deck seats and they get to play a short beer league-style game on Honda Center ice after the Ducks and Kings end. So if you see a green shirt during the game in Section 430, Row J, feel free to say hi, or if you're bored after the game and want to see some amateurs play, I'll be in the lower bowl for that. Ducks 4, Kings 2. Goals by Ryan (x2), Pahlsson, and Getzlaf.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Sleek starts a campaign

Florida Panthers (4-8-1, 15th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (9-6-1, 3rd in west)
The truth about cats and birds.

I don't have anything to say about tonight's matchup against the Cats, but I do want to recommend The Litter Box, a Panthers-themed hockey blog that I enjoy thoroughly. Whale4Ever mixes his hockey updates with plenty of awesome images and plenty of snark, and I'm much more pro-Cat thanks to his efforts. Rock on, dude.

Instead, I wanted to ride the coattails of the campaign fever that's been taking over BoC, between Mike Chen's push for Seto/Gooch to the All-Star Game and Rudy Kelly's Doughty for the Calder Trophy movement that's just picking up steam. Well, just because I'm apolitical and anti-voting doesn't mean that I don't care about important issues, and there's certainly one movement I'd like to throw my negligible weight behind. As a bonus, it's not even anything I have to convince you readers to do—the primary audience for this message is for just one person only: Brian Burke.

C'mon, Burkie, you know that Sammy would re-sign you.
As you know, Brian Burke is probably headed elsewhere next year, and I've already stated that he's got my blessing—at least he's left the team in a flexible enough salary position next year that a replacement GM won't be cap-cramped to start the new job. Here's who the Ducks currently have under salary for next year, with everyone else a free agent:

Forwards: Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Selanne, Carter, Ryan + some Bertuzzi money
Defensemen: Pronger
Goalies: Giguere, Hiller

Combined, it comes to some $32.5 M, which is a bit pricy, but at least some expensive positions are pre-filled (goaltending, scoring forwards, top d-man). Well, over the next few weeks I plan on coming up with Burke's Bucket List: a list of items I'd like to see Burke do before hitting "greener pastures" next summer.

First and foremost is re-signing Sammy Pahlsson, who of course I could write volumes about (as we'll see once this campaign really gets rolling), but for now, let's just focus on the penalty killing. Since Burke took over the team, the Ducks have taken strange pride in their ability to take penalties, and Pahlsson has quietly shouldered the brunt of that. Since the lockout (regular season only), Sammy has played nearly 1,103 shorthanded minutes, which is the seventh highest total in the league behind Bouwmeester, Phillips, Lidstrom, Havelid, Chara, and Keith -- all defensemen. His total is 222 more minutes than the next highest forward, Ottawa's Chris Kelly (note: this was a hasty study just looking at just the top 90 minute-getters for each season, but I think it's correct).

So Burke, you owe it to Ducks fans, Ducks players, and especially to Sammy himself -- four more years, dude. I'm not even going to make a recommendation on dollars; whatever it takes is fine by me -- even if it's an overpayment, we still probably owe Sammy for the harsh service he's endured for the past four years.

So anyway, that's the start of my campaign; more to come in future posts. Feel free to lend your support in the comments.

* * *

More Tragedy in the Oilogosphere: You'll of course recall last month's incident between DMFB and the Oilers pressbox that led to Dave's departure from hockey blogging. Well, now the damage is doubled. Mike W, another CiO contributor and inspiration for my hockey blogging has likewise decided to give up his posting, and again, I am crushed by the news.

Mikey, please keep visiting, and trust me, I'll post anything you draw. And don't give up the Chamber of Comics -- it's sheer awesomeness, at least the parts that Internet Explorer will let me see.

I would be remiss if I didn't link to this -- pretty much the best thing any hockey blogger has ever done, ever.

* * *

And lastly, part two of my interview with Tom L. and Tapeleg from The Rink Podcast has now been posted, and this time it's Sleek from start to finish. Lots covered there, from some philosophy of what this blog is all about to remeniscing on the 2003 Cup run, and some follow-up thoughts about Paul Kariya. Enjoy!

Prediction: Ducks 3, Cats 1. Goals by Kunitz, Pahlsson (shorthanded, I'm sure), and Carter.

Go Ducks.

Sharks Gameday: The Perfect Storm? Maybe Not

Yesterday, I joked with Earl Sleek that tonight's Sharks/Stars game seemed like the perfect storm for the Sharks to get their first loss at home. After all, Evgeni Nabokov is out, Sergei Zubov is in, the Stars have been trying to figure out something to inspire them to a win (signing Mark Parrish, obviously, is the key), and it's a big Saturday-night tilt between conference rivals.

Seems like just the type of situation that used to drive Sharks fans nuts. The team probably had a 30/70 percentage split of meeting the challenge of an occasion last season versus appearing listless and confused.

Now? Maybe the NHL's scheduling staff is on the team's side. First Detroit comes to the Golden State to face Anaheim, then less than 24 hours later, skates out on HP Pavilion ice. Now the Stars have to do the same thing.

Instead of using my "Oh crap!" negative thinking that still lingers from the Ron Wilson era, I'm going to look on the brighter side of things (don't worry Sleek, I'm not stealing positivity). Boucher's played well so far, the Sharks have overcome all of the moments of adversity (big and little), and Dallas is hopefully tired after the game in Anaheim. Zubov is one of those freak-of-nature players that never seems to get rattled or fatigued, but I'm hoping that he won't be in tip-top shape by playing back-to-back against two tough division rivals.

From the Sharks' perspective, I'm not sure if Alexei Semenov is in, but here's an unnerving stat -- in all of the games that Semenov has played, the Sharks have given up 4+ goals in all but one of them. Coincidence? A total trickling down of Semenov's total suckitude? I don't know, but if there were three things I could wave a magic wand and control tonight, it'd be:

1) A better power play
2) More shots in the slot from Jonathan Cheechoo
3) Strong team defense and no minimal bad turnovers, which means sitting Semenov

Kings Gameday: Gettin' Defensive

LA Kings (4-6-2) vs. St. Louis Blues (5-6-1)

7:30 PST, Fox Sports Prime Ticket

The Kings are currently leading the league in shots allowed per game. That's insane. Last season, if you'll recall, the Kings were atrocious at preventing shots and finished 28th overall with 32 shots/game. This season? 24. In the last game against Florida, the Kings allowed only 15 shots, and at the end of the 2nd the Kings had outshot Florida 25-6. The fuck, man. That's huge both for a team's confidence and for actually winning games. Think about it: even if your team has a fat starter and a small, doe-eyed, Swedish back-up that allow a goal every 10 shots, you're still only allowing 2 or 3 goals a game. I'm kind of used to a more, what's the word, shitty defense, so this has been a nice change of pace so far.

Imagine a picture representing shot differential right here

Of course, there's a yin to this yang: the Kings are allowing less shots but in doing so they're shooting less as well. The Kings are shooting, on average, about 26 and a half shots per game. Last season the Kings shot about 28.6. It's not a huge decrease, but it's something to keep an eye on. As long as the Kings shoot more than they allow, I guess it doesn't really matter what the numbers actually are.

***

You know who's awesome? Kyle Quincey. It's kind of depressing knowing that the Red Wings can cut a guy from their defense and then he comes to the Kings and is immediately their best defenseman. Whenever Jack Johnson comes back I imagine he'll pair up with Drew Doughty because his old partner and Quincey are so good together. Sean O'Donnell with Tom Preissing? Hell yeah! ...I don't have any friends.

***

The Kings are playing the Blues, one of the teams that will challenge them in the future when they're both actually good. This is going to be like watching Smallville, in that it's going to suck and you're going to feel embarrassed for watching it.

Prediction: Kings win, 5-2. Goals by Kopitar, Doughty, Quincey, Brown and Simmonds. I keep predicting the Kings will score a bunch of goals and one day it'll be true.

Ducks Gameday—Texasperation

Dallas Stars (4-6-2, t-12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (9-5-1, 2nd in west)
Can the Stars re-discover the success they left here last spring?

I can't really tell you what's going wrong with the Dallas Stars this season, as I have yet to even watch a single game. Still, the spreadsheets will tell you, you don't have to look much past the 50 goals allowed in just 12 games. To put that in perspective, the Philadelphia Flyers currently lead the league in goal-scoring at 3.67 goals-per-game (excludes shootouts). The Stars are giving up goals at a rate of 4.17 goals-per-game, half a goal higher than any team can manage offensively.

There's probably plenty of culprits -- Avery and Brunnstrom not adequately replacing Hagman and Miettinen, the absence of Sergei Zubov (who I think returns to the team tonight, along with Mark Parrish), and of course the guy between the pipes.

Marty Turkey. 4.34 GAA, .837 Sv%.
Still, it's still a young season, and it's certainly possible the Stars work a Ducks-style turnaround. It might not even be that bad a time for the Stars to visit Anaheim and San Jose, where they eliminated the BoC last spring. It's going to be important that the Ducks and Sharks avoid thinking too much about revenge in these first meetings, though; the way to really hurt the Stars is to send them home without a win.

The Stars are 3-1 this year when allowing 3 goals or fewer; that's a good winning percentage for that cutoff, though certainly an embarrassingly low number of instances. One other strange sidenote about tonight's game: the Stars for some reason will become the last team this season to play an opponent from their own division. I guess that's one thing a Stars fan can take solace in: there's still time to make plenty of noise in the Pacific.

* * *

I'll be at tonight's game, enjoying my own version of the "Rinkside View" from the Row B seats, look for me in my lucky green shirt. I'll be with my dad and his friends, so it will probably be a muted version of Drinky Sleek, but feel free to say hi if you see me.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Stars 2. Goals by Perry, Scotty, Pahlsson, and Travis "the Omen" Moen.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Mysterious Origin Comics, Part II

St. Louis Blues (5-5-0, t-10th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (8-5-1, 3rd in west)
Yeah, I was yelling "Blue-urns".

Well, another moderately-deserved two points snatched in L.A. last night, but I'll tell you -- the 2nd and 4th lines looked pretty outmatched through most of the night. Brendan Morrison is still struggling to produce, though I still don't mind his overall positional play, but I also think that Teemu's not fighting through enough checks, and Todd Marchant hasn't carried a scoring line since ever.

But hey, today's a new day and a new opponent -- the St. Louis Blues. Fun Fact: Did you know that St. Louis is in the Central Division, home of the Detroit Red Wings? Yeah, of course you knew that, but I'm horrible at segues.

But now that we're talking about Detroit, our friend, now mysteriously known as "The Swede" (though tireless research has revealed he doesn't live in Sweden), has produced another comic book masterpiece, this time focused on last week's encounter with the Red Wings. Now presented in thrilling two-part format!

Red Wings at Ducks, Oct. 29, 2008:

(click on either image to enlarge)
Overall: brilliant, but I especially like the look of the middle panel on the second page. Fantastic storyline progression, and it just looks damn cool. And I miss Brad May already.

* * *

More internet slutting guest appearances: I'm still not very comfortable in front of an imaginary microphone, but I was a guest on another podcast yesterday afternoon before the Kings game -- The Rink Podcast Episode Six with Tom Luongo and James "Tapeleg" Grailian. We talked a bit about the Ducks and Sundin rumors (I'm not in until the final third), plus there will be a full-length bonus interview sometime later this week. Let's hear it for thrilling two-part formats!

* * *

And lastly, I will put a proper post together sometime later for the Duck nominees, but I wouldn't fret too much about who is or isn't on the NHL All-Star Ballot. If you recall last year, I believe seven of the twelve popularly-elected starters actually showed up to the event, so it's not very meaningful anyways. Plus the vote is probably in boring one-part format, how lame.

Prediction: Maybe all Brendan Morrison needs is an encounter with Teemu's two favorite linemates, Andy McDonald and Paul Kariya, just to see how the Finn prefers to receive his passes. Ducks win, 3-2, in a thrilling two-part game (I dunno, let's say a pane of glass shatters midway through). Goals by Getzlaf, Pahlsson, and Montador.

Go Ducks.

BoC Gameday—Six Games of Jekyll, Seven Games of Hyde

Anaheim Ducks (7-5-1, t-3rd in west) at Los Angeles Kings (3-6-1, 15th in west)
Let's try this again, shall we?

Lots to talk about on the Anaheim end of things, plus I'm sure Rudy's got plenty of Kings stuff to add, so let's get moving. First off is the Six Games of Jekyll / Seven Games of Hyde that's started off the Ducks' year. 1-5-0 in the first six, then 6-0-1 in the last seven, and the primary difference appears to be offense: the Ducks jumped from 2.17 goals scored per game to 4.14, and the power play jumped from a 1-for-24 success ratio to a 10-for-30 over the last seven games. Meanwhile, defense and penalty killing for the Ducks have stayed remarkably consistent (goals-against per game went from 3.33 to 3.29; penalty killing went from 80.6% to 80.5%).

As noted, the primary driver for this improved offense has been the awakening of the three-headed first star of the week: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Teemu Selanne. The table below shows the improvement that each of the three players has shown both in even-strength and power-play situations. Each statistic (goals/60 minutes, assists/60, points/60, plus/60, minus/60, differential/60) is shown twice for each player -- once to show their rates for the first six games and again to show their rates for the last seven games. Pay particular attention to the points/60 and the plus/60 -- the improvement is phenomenal.

Scoring rate splits for Getzlaf, Perry, and Selanne

Stats are shown: Games 1-6 / Games 7-13
(click image for larger view)

It's really not all good news for the Ducks, though (what? negativity?). Over the last seven games there have definitely been stretches where opponents have carried the play against the Ducks, though usually those have come after the Ducks have taken an early lead. The Ducks allowed two straight goals to Toronto, three straight to Ottawa, three straight to Montreal, two straight to Columbus, two straight to Detroit, five straight to Vancouver, and two straight to Calgary. There have definitely been offsetting stretches where Anaheim has owned the play (the Ducks have led 2-0 in five of the seven games), but there have definitely been stretches where Anaheim has sat back and held on for dear life.

Still, I can't complain. The primary objective of accumulating standings points has been wildly successful, and for every stretch where an opponent has controlled the game, there has been an equal-or-greater stretch that the Ducks have manufactured. Look at some of these Anaheim goal outbursts: @TOR - 2g in 5:14 in the 1st, @OTT - 3g in 10:01 in the 2nd, @MTL - 3g in 13:59 in the 2nd, @CBJ - 2g in 6:46 in the 3rd, DET - 2g in 8:06 in the 3rd, VAN - 3g in 1:40 in the 2nd, CGY - 2g in 0:45 in the 2nd. It's not a typical "shut the opposition down" streak that the Ducks have been known for in the past couple of years, but I'll certainly take it.

* * *

Mats Sundin is apparently intrigued by the Ducks? Uh, OK Mats. The Ducks can't really offer any money, easy travel schedule, or even a spot on the top power play unit, but if you're purely interested in the comfort of anonymity, Anaheim certainly is not a town to judge people for mid-season unretirements. As an added bonus, Sammy Pahlsson would automatically become your best friend -- he'd probably talk your ear off, finally given an opportunity to speak Swedish again. So Mr. Sundin, if you're truly interested, the only question remains: would you prefer a December Niedermayer return package or are you interested in the February Selanne plan?

* * *

The Ducks return to Staples Center tonight where they lost 6-3 in the third game of each team's season. Kings fans may be worried, as they haven't won in their past four games, but the Ducks have been streak-busters as of late. In chronological order, they have ended L.A.'s 2-game losing streak, San Jose's 4-game win streak, Montreal's 5-game win streak, Detroit's 5-game win streak, and Calgary's 6-game win streak. Anaheim's streak-ending trend may be just what the Kings need.

Prediction: In lately-typical Ducks fashion, Ducks win 4-3 by scoring the first four goals of the game, then sitting back and letting the Kings dominate the second half of the game. Goals by Perry, Moen, Pahlsson, and Kunitz.

p.s. Careful readers will note that I have said absolutely nothing about today's presidential election. To tell the truth, I haven't followed this race very well at all. Basically, my opinion of voting is the same it was two years ago; certainly vote if you feel led.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—A hasty look at the SoCal Two-For-One Special

Vancouver Canucks (5-5-0, t-7th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (6-5-0, 5th in west)
Trick or treat? Teemu takes Trick.

Sorry this gameday post was so late in coming, but I was under the assumption that the NHL was going to suspend all regular season games until its posterchild Sid Crosby recovered from his mystery injury. Whoops!

At any rate, because I was so bored at work today I thought I'd revisit an old study I did about the success of teams visiting SoCal to play both the Kings and the Ducks. In the table below, I've pooled together all the instances since the lockout when a visiting team played at the Honda Center and the Staples Center within two days of each other, then separated the results according to (a) which arena they visited first, and (b) how many days separated the games. Keep in mind, this table shows visiting opponent results, not the results for the home teams:

(click image to enlarge)
There's a lot of data thrown in this table (and sorry for the shoddy image quality), but here's a few quick takeaways:

1. Given a choice, a visiting team probably prefers to visit the Ducks before they visit the Kings. In the 23 times that has happened since the lockout, teams have won 10 times in the Honda Center, 13 times in the Staples Center, and 7 times a visiting team has won in both venues.

When teams visit the Kings first (as Vancouver did last night), they generally get ripped up by the Ducks in the second game. In the 35 times that has happened since the lockout, only 9 times has a visiting team won the second game in Honda Center and only 2 times has a visiting team been able to walk away with victories in each building (though the Canucks could become the third team to do it tonight).

Interesting to note that if you count the upcoming games against Vancouver and Calgary, that will make the last eleven straight opponents who went to Staples Center first.

2. A day off between games helps a team in either situation. Neither Vancouver nor Calgary will enjoy that luxury, but as you can see, visiting teams do enjoy better results in the second game if they have a day off to prepare for it. It's intuitive, sure, but I thought I'd point it out.

What's less intuitive? Teams with a day off between venues are typically enjoying better results in the first game, also. Possibly this has to do with "looking ahead" at the next day's opponent?

3. There's still plenty of factors that aren't included in this spreadsheet. Part of what makes this study a bit complex is that loosely speaking, the last three-plus seasons the Ducks have been very good and the Kings have been very bad, and it's interesting to see how teams strategize with that in mind. Should a team play its starter against Anaheim and its back-up against L.A., to try to pick up points in each venue? Or should the starter get the easier points in L.A. and let the back-up try to pull an upset in Anaheim?

Also lost a bit in this story is the set of teams that are making these two-stop trips; generally it's teams that have to travel very far (San Jose doesn't appear in this data once, as an example). Just another thing to keep in mind when over-analyzing these results.

At any rate, I've laid out the results in what I think is a logical way; feel free to comment or question any of it, or add observations of your own.

Prediction: Per the spreadsheet, Ducks win 3.5 - 2.2. Goals by Hedican, Morrison, Pahlsson, and half a goal by Perry.

Have a safe and pagan Halloween, everyone! Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—The importance of a good dentist

Detroit Red Wings (7-1-1, 2nd in west) at Anaheim Ducks (5-5-0, t-5th in west)
Ah, it's never felt so good to be back at .500

Well, I don't know if it was a lucky mix of positivity and poetry (Poetrivity!), but somehow the Ducks pulled off a nice 4-game sweep on their road trip, to nicely recover from their 0-4 season start. There's still plenty of things to improve on for the Ducks, but I'm still at the point that I care more that they are getting points than worrying too much about how they're getting them. Suffice to say that it was a fortunate road trip (really? only the third time ever a team has swept eastern Canada?), and it was extremely helpful to score the first two goals in each of the first three games.

But probably the one event on the road trip that probably shouldn't be overlooked was Ryan Getzlaf's trip to the dentist. Getzlaf had a virus removed from his gum that kept him out of the game in Toronto, but apparently the virus was adversely affecting more than just his inner mouth -- his entire forward line showed improvement once the infection was removed from the lineup. Here's the top line's very-much-improved stats from the road trip:

C. Perry 4 gp, 2g-5a-7p, +4
R. Getzlaf 3 gp, 3g-2a-5p, +4
C. Kunitz 4 gp, 1g-4a-5p, +2
Recall that in the six games prior to that dental visit, that trio combined for 18 gp, 0g-2a-2p, -14.


I can only assume this resembles Getzlaf before and after his dental visit.
It certainly mirrors the top line's performance since that pivotal event.
I don't want to seem overly presumptuous, but perhaps it's time to schedule Brendan Morrison for a teeth-cleaning. Ten games in, and he's got 0g-1a-1p and a -5. Just sayin'.

------------------------------
Meanwhile, the Red Wings come into town with a 5-game win streak of their own, thanks to Denis Gauthier's questionable decision-making. Like Anaheim, Detroit's win streak seems a bit illusory as well -- three of the five wins have come in OT/SO, and over the streak they've allowed 3.6 goals per game, which is definitely uncharacteristic.

Here's one stat that definitely differentiates Detroit's win streak from Anaheim's, though. In 5 wins, the Red Wings have outshot their opponents by a margin of 41.2 to 29.8. In 4 wins, the Ducks have been outshot by their opponents by a margin of 25.5 to 37.8. Detroit's also 5-0 on the road this season, and the Ducks haven't won a home game that I haven't attended, so hopefully this battle of the last two cup champions provokes some inspired play from the web-footed ones.

Prediction: Nevertheless, the Ducks pull it out. Ducks 4, Wings 2. Goals by the two-time Wing killers -- the fabulous Niedermayers, Pahlsson, and Pronger. For your Red Wings angles, make sure to hit up Abel to Yzerman, Winging It In Motown, On the Wings, and HockeytownTodd.

[9:30 am edit -- I've just been informed that the Chief over at A2Y will be running a live blog over at his site tonight, and I've agreed to join in the comments there to take my lumps like a good Ducks fan should. Feel free to join in, defend Pronger's elbows, and enjoy a hearty laugh at the persistence of 18-month-old injury excuses.]

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gamedays—A Poem for the Road Trip

Anaheim Ducks (2-5-0) at

• Ottawa Senators (2-3-1), tonight
• Montreal Canadiens (5-0-1), tomorrow
• Columbus Blue Jackets (3-3-0), Monday

That's right, a three-in-one special! Like Rudy, I'm also off tomorrow moning for a few-day trip -- I'll be up in Oakland for a cousin's wedding. So you kids play nice!

Anyways, in lieu of anything analytical, here's a nice Friday poem to get you through next Monday. Enjoy!

Ode to the Road Trip

O h for the glory of two playoffs ago,
T aking Lord Stanley away from Big O.
T rue, going in the Sens seemed like a beast,
A lfie, Spezz, Heater – they ripped through the east!
W hile both teams have since seen some talent get scattered,
A t least we can say that we won when it mattered.

M on dieu! Les Canadiens, a hearty “whassup?”
O ne hundred years old? I’d better speak up.
N ow I know that SoCal isn’t Original Six,
T hus you probably can’t stand us insufferable pricks,
R eally what scares me is the Habs’ power play,
E specially if the Ducks think penalties are OK,
A nd while fans will drink at the game and in bars,
L et’s not go crazy and start burning cop cars.

C an I keep up this rhyming for one more damn stanza?
O f course! Time for some Blue Jacket bonanza!
L ast NHL team to feel postseason pride,
U gh! They’re still a thorn in the Ducks’ side.
M aybe it’s travel or maybe it’s fate,
B ut the Jackets have sure been tougher of late.
U sually I end with some nonsense prediction
S o Pahlsson scores ‘em all; 3-0 perfection!

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Still waiting for scorers to score

Anaheim Ducks (1-5-0, 15th in west) at Toronto Maple Leafs (1-2-2, t-11th in east)
When's the last time you looked longingly at Toronto's record?
(I wasn't asking you, Kings fans.)

Yeah, sometimes I'm lazy enough for a good google image search, so sue me (note to Disney: please don't sue me).

Not too much from me today, as I didn't even get to watch the Carolina outing, but I did want to revisit a post I wrote way back in June that explored the notion of Brian Burke taking a Maple Leafs GM job next summer. I really made two points: (1) Brian Burke has gotten lucky at times, in particular with his acquisitions of Niedermayer, Pronger, and Selanne, and (2) I was fine with Burke leaving, as there is a fairly open roster next year for a replacement GM to work with.

Of course, that latter point isn't looking so strong these days, as the three biggest contracts Burke has locked the Ducks into are:

R. Getzlaf, 6 gp, 0-1-1, -5 — 5 years, $26.625 million
C. Perry, 6 gp, 0-1-1, -4, — 5 years, $26.625 million
C. Kunitz, 6 gp, 0-0-0, -5 — 4 years, $14.9 million

So, using some ridiculous pro-rating math, thus far it's looking like the Ducks will pay some $68.15 million for this trio of forwards to score a combined 0 goals and 137 assists in 1,148 games played. That's just under $500,000 per assist, and I don't even want to mention the combined -888.

Of course, that's all pretty silly math, but the reality remains: the forwards on the Ducks with one or less points on the season are Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Selanne, Morrison, and Parros. And the only thing that separates Parros from this group is (a) he's been on the ice for more goals-for (3) than the other five, (b) he has yet to be on the ice for a goal-against, and (c) he's had less than half the ice time of any of them.

I'll mention again the bizarre scoring structure: the top two lines have scored 1 goal, the bottom two lines have scored 8, and the defense has scored 4. When exactly is Carlyle going to shuffle things up?

Prediction: Technically, somebody's getting a second "W" tonight. Ducks 4, Leafs 1. Goals by Kunitz, Scotty, Pahlsson, and Parros. Ron Wilson catches Teemu with another illegal stickblade. Make sure to check out Pension Plan Puppets, Battle of Ontario, and Down Goes Brown for your Toronto perspectives.

[9 am edit -- Our good buddy Michael Dell, who hosts the LCS Radio Show where both Chen and I recently made guest appearances, was so inspired by our 80s TV devotion that he made a list of the NHL's A-Team. A pretty good list, but I still prefer my casting.]

Positivity! Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: His First Name Should be Lance

Los Angeles Kings (2-2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (2-3)

7:30 PST, FSN West


Brian Boyle is 24 years old. While others from his draft class are firmly established NHL players by now (Dustin Brown and Patrick O'Sullivan, for example), Boyle is still struggling to find his place in the league. Boyle doesn't have the speed or the hands to really become a top offensive player so the plan was to get him used to playing in a bottom role. The Kings only played him about 9 minutes a game in preseason in hopes that he could adjust and use his body more. The Kings hoped that Boyle join forces with Derek Armstrong and Raitis Ivanans to become a terror to opposing teams.

Instead, Boyle's line has been embarrassing and Boyle has accrued a -4 rating in 3 games. That's awful when you consider that Boyle has been playing sheltered minutes and he's only played in home games so far. I think the problem isn't that Boyle isn't using his body like the Kings have asked; the problem is that he doesn't know when it's appropriate. Being physical in hockey isn't just about being able to knock a guy down, it's about being able to knock a guy down and affecting the play. Boyle seems uncomfortable out there because he is playing a completely new role. I think he'll figure it out, because Boyle is a solid player, but right now he needs to either get sent down to Manchester or given a new role on the team.

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Do you ever wonder why Earl doesn't let anyone write about the Coyotes on this site? This is why.

***

The Avalanche have averaged 4 goals for and 3.8 goals against so far this season. Ruggedly handsome Joe Sakic and just plain rugged Paul Stastny each have a goal and 7 assists this season, but the numbers I like to see are these:

Andrew Raycroft- 2 GP, 3.00 GAA, .875 SV%
Peter Budaj- 3 GP, 4.38 GAA, .824 SV%

I bet Sakic hates both of those guys. Peter Budaj is getting the start tonight.

Prediction: Kings win, 8-6. Goals by Kopitar (x3), Handzus (x2), Frolov, Simmonds and Moller. Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft are "accidentally" left in LA after the game.

BoC Gameday Part 2: You say 1-4, I say 5-0

While Sleek is calling for positivity from the Ducks side (for you fellow indie music geeks out there, "Positivity" is probably the worst song ever recorded by Suede), things are moving a little smoother here in the Bay Area. In terms of lineup changes, it sounds like Douglas Murray is out with the mysterious "upper body injury" while Tomas Plihal is still out. Which, if the Sharks had made the fan-pleasing move of giving Jeff Friesen a minimal contract (say, a weekly pizza and some old Friesen merchandise), would have been the perfect time to debut that new #13 Friesen jersey. Easy money for the Sharks, a team that's had a habit of money-grubbing from fans.

As for the rest of the team? I can spout off about what I like (shots from Rob Blake, speed through the neutral zone, Devin Setoguchi driving the net, Jonathan Cheechoo one-timers) or what I don't like (Joe Thornton looking a tad bit lost away from his usual half-board position, Marc-Edouard Vlasic trying to shoot on the power play, effective puck clearing during the penalty kill) but it's all kind of moot right now. Right now, the pluses far outweigh the minuses, and the minuses are all nitpicky things that you figure a team will work out over the coming weeks.

This team will hit a slump eventually; all teams do, and it's how the react that makes a difference. For tonight, though, I think they have to be wary of a pissed-off, frustrated, and desperate Ducks team. This could be either good or bad for the Sharks depending on A) whether Anaheim figured out that taking penalties is generally not a good path to victory and B) whether Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf wake up. My personal theory is that Getzlaf is off looking for that patch of hair that used to be on his head, but that's just speculation.

This is uncharted waters (heh) for the Sharks, who are traditionally an awful-to-mediocre October team. What any team in this situation wants to do is avoid being the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators or the 1998-99 Phoenix Coyotes. So boys, make sure that the wins are coming because everyone is working together, not because everyone is overachieving and waiting for the bottom to fall out of it.

And as for Todd McLellan, I bet he loves it when a plan comes together. (That one's for you, Sleek. Positivity!)

Prediction: Sharks 4, Ducks 2. Goals by Cheechoo (2), Blake, and Thornton.

P.S. Ever wondered how I'd stand up in a Star Wars trivia contest on a hockey radio show? Now you can find out by checking out my appearence on LCS Hockey. Since Sleek was on it last week, this leads to the ultimate Star Wars-A Team mashup joint appearence sometime in the future. The world will never be the same.

P.P.S. Ever wondered how I'd sound on local Bay Area radio? Now you can find out by checking out this week's ChompTalk on 1220 AM Sunday night at 9 PM (or you can listen online).  You might recognize one of the hosts.

BoC Gameday—Aww, you saved your first "W" for me?

San Jose Sharks (4-0) at Anaheim Ducks (0-4)
Battle of the Western Conference Extremes

Ain't the Ducks a bunch of sweethearts? I mean, some fans are forced to watch their team get a season's first victory on TV, but the Ducks have managed to work things out so that I can come experience it in person. That's right, it's time for another Sleek sighting at the ol' Honda Center, sporting the lucky green shirt and drunk-yelling "Positivity!" from Row B. If you're attending the game and want to say hi, you can probably catch me during the intermissions in the lower-level concourse furthest from Katella Avenue.

Now you might think that I'm terrified or worried about tonight's game, but to tell you the truth, I've already attended it -- five years ago, if you can believe it. (Uh-oh, flashback.) If you recall, optimism was very high back in the start of the 2003-04 season. The Mighty Ducks were fresh off an upstart Stanley Cup G7, and even though Oates and Kariya had departed during the summer, their vacancies seemed decently filled with the signings of Fedorov and Prospal. High hopes came crashing back to earth early, however, as the 03-04 Mighty Ducks began their post-Finals-appearance season with a horrific 0-4 start, getting outscored by the whopping margin of 12 to 2 (!).

I don't recall how I managed to score tickets to the fifth game, but I do remember conflicting feelings about the start of the season. Was this Ducks team, such a giant-killer last spring, all of a sudden the worst team in the league? How was I supposed to react to the team's horrid start in my first Pond visit since the miracle run?

For the record, the Mighty Ducks ended up with a mixed result in the game I attended. They did pick up their first standing point of the season, but fell in overtime to Joe Thornton's Sharks Bruins. The thing I remember most about that night wasn't anything that happened on the ice, however, but rather it was the moment I got home and realized that I no longer was carrying a wallet. In my eager (younger) attempt to drown the Ducks' struggles in liquid amnesia, I apparently had left it sitting on the beer counter after flashing my ID. If anyone does recall finding a wallet that night (the Pond had zero clue the next day), now you know the secret identity of Mr. Sleek -- and if you're feeling particularly malicious, I never did get around to cancelling that Blockbuster Video card.

Now I'm not exactly sure why I decided to bring up that story -- it's certainly a very different Ducks team than it was five years ago, and I don't even think the parallel 0-4 records signify the same problems. One thing that I do notice, however, is that I'm a much less panicked fan this time around. Maybe I've grown up a bit, maybe I'm disillusioned a bit, who knows? I do think that one of the Ducks' TV guys (Bill MacDonald, maybe?) brought up a helpful point after the Oilers loss, though. It wouldn't be that difficult to shrug off a 4-game losing streak if it happened in the middle of the season, and I'll add it's preferable to mourn in October than in April.

So regardless of early-season records, I figure I'll be in good spirits tonight. Sure, I'll be drinking (it's still me), but instead of a drown-my-sorrows attitude from five years ago, tonight's just an exciting matchup on what promises to be a crazy-season roller coaster ride. Oddly enough, I think the 0-4 start has actually been a little bit liberating; I'd probably be more stressed about tonight's result if the teams had identical records.

Anyways, if you're following the game on TV, feel free to join Mr. Plank's interactive liveblog over at We Bleed Teal. Sharks fans, Ducks fans, wayward Kings fans, disheartened Angel/Dodger fans -- all are welcome, I'm sure. If the puck goes near the Ducks' penalty box and you spot a green shirt on the bottom of your TV set, though, make sure to give him a "Positivity!" shoutout. Every little bit counts.

Prediction: Sleek manages to hold onto his wallet this time, and that makes all the difference. Ducks 4, Sharks 3. Goals by Carter, Getzlaf, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.