The 16-Game Sniff Test: How do the Sharks measure up?

As the Sharks have racked up points to start this season, I've had my attention fixed on where they'd sit after the sixteen game mark. Why sixteen games, you ask? For one, it does represent the first 20% of the season, but more importantly, it's where I mentally set the bar two years ago when the Ducks finally suffered a regulation loss in Game 17.

This originally was going to be a comparison of just the 06-07 Ducks and the 08-09 Sharks, but since I started mulling the idea I've been reminded that it's not just the Ducks that started their season on fire en route to a Stanley Cup. Here's a look at the last four cup winners have performed in their (mostly) first sixteen games, with the Sharks thrown in for comparison. In the right-hand column I have included each team's record through 60 minutes -- probably more indicative of projected postseason play.

Overall Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning*	11-2-2-1, 25 pts 0.781	47 – 29 = 18 2.94 – 1.81 = 1.13	14 / 78 17.9%	7 / 64 89.1%	10-2-4, 24 pts 0.750
05-06 Hurricanes**	12-2-1, 25 pts 0.833	59 – 38 = 21 3.93 – 2.53 = 1.40	21 / 96 21.9%	15 / 81 81.5%	10-2-3, 23 pts 0.767
06-07 Ducks	12-0-4, 28 pts 0.875	57 – 32 = 25 3.56 – 2.00 = 1.56	18 / 86 20.9%	10 / 92 89.1%	9-0-7, 25 pts 0.781
07-08 Red Wings	13-2-1, 27 pts 0.844	54 – 33 = 21 3.38 – 2.06 = 1.31	18 / 77 23.4%	10 / 85 88.2%	11-2-3, 25 pts 0.781
08-09 Sharks	13-3-0, 26 pts 0.813	52 – 38 = 14 3.25 – 2.38 = 0.88	13 / 80 16.3%	9 / 61 85.2%	10-3-3, 23 pts 0.719

* Remember when standings used to have four columns? For those of us who need reminding (I sure did!), the Lightning had 2 ties and 1 overtime loss in their first 16.
** I gave the Hurricanes a break and only showed their first 15 games. In Game 16, the Atlanta Thrashers smoked the 'Canes 9-0 in Raleigh and threw off all the statistics. Mentally add it if you must.

First off, I want to caution reading too much into these comparisons: sixteen games guarantees absolutely nothing except a leg up on a playoff position, and there's no real need for the Sharks to outperform any of these prior cup winners -- San Jose won't be facing these lineups this year.

Secondly, I want to emphasize more about comparisons with the Ducks and Red Wings, and less about the Lightning and Hurricanes. I included the Southeast winners because they did reinforce the pattern, but their Cup Finals were a bit unique -- meeting a bottom seed in the west and requiring a seventh game at home to seize their prize. No offense, but the Ducks and Wings represent teams that cruised to victory over more traditional Finals opponents, and their regular seasons were more similar to today's NHL.

Thirdly, we should always keep in mind sample size -- sixteen games is meaningful, but stats still can certainly be affected by an outlier game. With that in mind, here's the home and road splits, which represent even fewer games :)
Home Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	8-1-1-1, 18 pts 0.818	37 – 20 = 17 3.36 – 1.82 = 1.55	11 / 62 17.7%	5 / 47 89.4%	7-1-3, 17 pts 0.773
05-06 Hurricanes	7-0-0, 14 pts 1.000	30 – 18 = 12 4.29 – 2.57 = 1.71	10 / 48 20.8%	9 / 43 79.1%	5-0-2, 12 pts 0.857
06-07 Ducks	7-0-3, 17 pts 0.850	37 – 22 = 15 3.70 – 2.20 = 1.50	13 / 59 22.0%	7 / 58 87.9%	6-0-4, 16 pts 0.800
07-08 Red Wings	7-1-0, 14 pts 0.875	26 – 15 = 11 3.25 – 1.88 = 1.38	10 / 43 23.3%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-1-2, 12 pts 0.750
08-09 Sharks	9-0-0, 18 pts 1.000	32 – 17 = 15 3.56 – 1.89 = 1.67	6 / 47 12.8%	4 / 31 87.1%	7-0-2, 16 pts 0.889

Road Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	3-1-1-0, 7 pts 0.700	10 – 9 = 1 2.00 – 1.80 = 0.20	3 / 16 18.8%	2 / 17 88.2%	3-1-1, 7 pts 0.700
05-06 Hurricanes	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688	29 – 20 = 9 3.63 – 2.50 = 1.13	11 / 48 22.9%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688
06-07 Ducks	5-0-1, 11 pts 0.917	20 – 10 = 10 3.33 – 1.67 = 1.67	5 / 27 18.5%	3 / 34 91.2%	3-0-3, 9 pts 0.750
07-08 Red Wings	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813	28 – 18 = 10 3.50 – 2.25 = 1.25	8 / 34 23.5%	4 / 47 91.5%	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813
08-09 Sharks	4-3-0, 8 pts 0.571	20 – 21 = -1 2.86 – 3.00 = -0.14	7 / 33 21.2%	5 / 30 83.3%	3-3-1, 7 pts 0.500

Takeaways: If the sixteen-game sniff test bears out, the Sharks are certainly keeping pace with Cup darlings from years past. Their goal-differential and special teams seem a little lower than the winners' trend, but it's certainly not an alarming difference.

One thing I didn't include on these tables was shot differential -- on average, the Sharks outshoot their opponents by a margin of 37 - 25, which is a whopping difference. Only last year's Red Wings on this list were able to match that for their first 16 games (34.5 - 22.4); the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were all only slightly ahead of their opponents in that regard. This is one reason I'm not too critical of the goal-differential and special teams for the Sharks; it seems like it's more a matter of luck than anything.

If you're looking for a spot of potential mediocrity, though, it might be in the Sharks' road record, which is only .500 through regulation (again, small sample size). Still, winning on the road is one thing that the other Cup winners did very well in their season starts, and that ability served them well enough in the postseason. I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point, Sharks fans, but it's something to pay attention to as the season continues along.

From the Ducks' point of view, there is one other key difference to note about the 06-07 Ducks' start and the 08-09 Sharks: the chasers. Even with the Ducks starting 12-0-4, they barely had any divisonal lead to speak of -- the Dallas Stars at that point were 12-4-0 and the Sharks were 12-5-0. It was an incredible start by all three Pacific teams. This year, the Sharks are being followed by the Ducks (2 games above .500) and the Coyotes (1 game above .500), and the immediate threat of being caught is enormously lessened.

I'm not crowning any champions today, and I'm not ruling out any team from next spring's Cup -- by the time the playoffs roll around, I'll care much more about how the last 80% of the season went than the first 20%, but I had the numbers fairly handy and I thought I'd show the comparison stats.


Question for readers: Why does this pattern exist? Does a fast start give a team any particular edge coming out of a long season, or is it just the case that excellent teams tend to have good starts and tend to win Cups? Also, seeing the comparison, what likelihood would you give these Sharks of becoming champions this coming spring? If you have any observations or theories you want to add (or have any questions about the underlying numbers), feel free to throw them in the comments.

Kings Gameday: Frolov on a Checking Line?

Los Angeles Kings (1-2, meh) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2-1, 4 pts)

7:30 PST, FSN West, FSN South

Do me a favor: reach into my pants. No, in the front. Do you feel that? No, that's my phone. Left. Yeah, right there. That's a boner. That's what Frolov playing defense does to me. Hey, shut up, we can't all be Dustin Brown. You know what, forget it, just get out of there.

The point is, I'm very excited by this pronouncement by Terry Murray that Alex Frolov will skate with Michal Handzus on the prime defensive line for the Kings. The traditional NHL line is that you have to have 2 scoring lines, a checking line and then a goon line. Look at the Ducks for an example of this and see how well this works. The reality, however, is that guys aren't either good at offense or good at defense; guys can be good at both and they can suck at both. There are guys like Sammy Pahlsson, who's great at defense but couldn't score if you put a passed out coed in his hotel room, but most of the time the top defensive unit is populated by failed offenisve talents like Kyle Calder. Alex Frolov is a talented offensive player but he's also the best defensive forward on the team. He's good not only at positional defense and stripping the puck, but he's also great at protecting the puck in the offensive zone and keeping the puck away from the opposing team. A guy like Ryan Getzlaf or Olli Jokinen can't do much damage if they don't have the puck. Placing Frolov against top offensive guys will definitely help the Kings.

Nice defense.

What does this mean for Frolov? Well, it means his +/- might take a little hit and he might not score quite as many points, but overall it'll make him a better player and it'll help the team. I imagine the Kings will move Matt Moulson down to the Frolov-Handzus line when Patrick O'Sullivan is ready to go, or move O'Sullivan to that line to create an ultimate offensive-checking unit. That would definitely put me at full mast.

***

The Kings are playing Carolina tonight in an important grudge match. Nah, just kidding, I don't think either side really cares. But hey, Tim Gleason! I liked Tim Gleason when he was on the Kings and he's done well for Carolina. Still, his face is squishy and I hope Dustin Brown buries him tonight.

Prediction: Kings win, 4-2. Goals by Frolov, Handzus, Moulson and Doughty. Eric Staal's eyes will be too close together.

That's the Sound of No One Caring

Oleg Tverdovsky, the well-traveled defenseman once hailed as the "Ukranian Bobby Orr," looks to be taking his puck and going home. Russian newspapers are reporting that Tverdovsky has signed a 5-year deal with Yulaev of the RSL after realizing that there was no way he was going to play for the Kings this year. He’ll probably say that he missed his family and wanted to be back in Russia, which we all know is bullshit because no one wants to spend a winter in Russia (except maybe Ilya Brzyzgalov, but he's insane).

It's so cold that guy's head fell off!

This is good news for the Kings because it means Tverdovsky’s $2.5 million dollar contract comes off the books; the Kings probably won’t spend any more money, but it’s nice to have in case they want to pick someone up for the stretch run. And I’m sure Carolina GM Jim Rutherford is cursing the heavens, wondering why Tverdovsky didn’t do this earlier. In the end, the Kings traded Eric Belanger and Tim Gleason for Jack Johnson and $2.5 million dollars (since Tverdovsky barely played for the Kings). Belanger was later traded for Josef Vasicek and the Canes have since indicated that they won’t re-sign him. Going forward, this essentially makes that trade Jack Johnson for Tim Gleason. To the Canes, I say: whoops.

Earl Sleek is now curled into a ball, muttering, "No, no..."

With the NHL career of Oleg Tverdovsky essentially over, I think we should all take a moment to reflect on an, uhh, interesting career. Tverdovsky was drafted 2^nd overall in the 1994 NHL entry draft by the Anaheim Ducks. (I was going to point out what a terrible pick that was, but the Kings drafted Jamie Storr 7^th, so I’ll shut up.) Tverdovsky was always a 4^th forward out there, but his unique defensive play (ie., letting people skate right by him) made it difficult for any team to handle him for more than a couple of years. He bounced from Anaheim, to Phoenix, back to Anaheim, to New Jersey, to Russia, to Carolina, and finally to the Kings. I didn’t really get to know him while he was on the Kings so I don’t have any great stories about him. I call on Ducks fans to please share their favorite (or most infuriating) Tverdovsky moment if it’s not too painful. So long, Oleg. I hardly knew ye, thank God.

(P.S. Please refrain from calling him “Turn-overdovsky.” If I hear one more person call him that, the hilarity of the phrase might actually make my sides split.)

(P.P.S On the pre-show for the Dodgers game, Steve Lyons said that Reds pitcher Phil Dumatrait “…got whacked around in his last start.” Teehee.)

Pattern Recognition: Emery for the Smythe?

Man, the Ducks have had it too easy when it comes to goaltenders faced these playoffs:

First there was Niklas Backstrom on the Wild, who led the league in goals-against-average and earned the William Jennings Trophy for fewest team goals-allowed in the season. Backstrom hadn’t allowed two goals in a game in over a month leading into the playoffs. What a piece of cake!

Then there was Roberto Luongo on the Canucks, 3rd in the league in shots faced and 4th in save percentage, not to mention his role in Vancouver's top-rated penalty kill. Luongo’s play made him a nominee for the Vezina Trophy, the Pearson Trophy, and the Hart Trophy, the ultimate trifecta for a goaltender. Talk about easy!

In the conference finals the Ducks faced Dominik Hasek on the Red Wings, the only goaltender who’s ever actually won the ultimate trophy trifecta. Behind the Wings blueline, Hasek had the 2nd best goals-against-average in the league, trailing only Backstrom. Plus he had never lost a series for Detroit in his career. Not a problem!

Sure, these goalies had a lot of pedigree and were certainly difficult to score on, but they were not nearly as intriguing as Ottawa netminder Ray Emery. Ray may not be up for any major awards or have a storied playoff history behind him, but he does have something that puts him head-and-shoulders above the rest—the Gerber Factor. JP at the FanHouse may have stolen some of my thunder, but let’s take a look at the stunning playoff history of former Duck Martin Gerber, all three times his team has qualified for the postseason.

2003: Gerber backs up J.S. Giguere as the Ducks win the Western Conference Final and advance to the Cup Finals before losing. J.S. Giguere, playing in his first playoffs, wins the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.

2006: Gerber backs up Cam Ward as the Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference Final and the Stanley Cup championship. Cam Ward, playing in his first playoffs, wins the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.

2007: Gerber backs up Ray Emery as the Senators win the Eastern Conference Final and advance to the Cup Finals.

Simply put, Martin Gerber has been a rabbit’s foot with pads. He’s averaging only about four periods of playing time per playoff year, and even when he's played he has put together less-than-stellar numbers (3.48 GAA, .854 sv%).

Despite his spotty performance, though, he has been to three of the last four cup finals, and he has as many cup rings as playoff wins.

Whether or not you buy the concept of the Gerber Factor, Ray Emery will probably need to play like a Conn Smythe candidate in the Cup Finals against Anaheim. He's going to need to play at an MVP level in order to keep making saves and stay composed while the Ducks repeatedly crash his crease, something that previous opponents all struggled to do (see pictures above). Collectively, Backstrom, Luongo, and Hasek were able to get a total of four wins over Anaheim, and if Emery can equal that achievement, he'll probably deserve some consideration for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

And if that happens, look for Ottawa to extend Martin Gerber's contract for another dozen years or so.

"Offseason" cartoons: The rest of the east

Well, I certainly have fallen behind on my offseason goal of cartooning new mascots for all the divisions, haven't I? Looking back, I haven't done one since August. Previous divisions include: Pacific, Northwest, Central, and the Atlantic.

Well, nothing like a hangover do-nothing Saturday to complete old tasks, eh?

First off, we have the Southeast Division:

We have the Tampa Bay Lightning Bolt, the Atlanta Thrash-Can, the Carolina Hurricane, the WASHINGTON CAPS, and the Florida Panthro.

And finally, the Northeast Division:
Here we see the Buffalo Sabre being confronted by the Boston Bruin, the Ottawa Senator Palpatine, the Toronto Maple Leaf, and of course the diminutive Le Hobbitant de Montréal.

Hope you enjoy 'em. Off to the couch for me!

Ducks Gameday—Carolina Candy Canes

Anaheim Ducks (28-5-6, 1st in west) at Carolina Hurricanes (20-15-4, 4th in east)

There’s plenty of storylines for tonight’s game:

• the top team from this regular season vs. the defending Cup champs
• injuries preventing an all-Conn-Smythe goaltender matchup (the Ducks’ Wall-McKee tandem has a combined 2 games of NHL experience)
• The Ducks' first game this year without Francois Beauchemin (lacerated spleen)
• ridiculous travel (Carolina played last night in Buffalo, while Anaheim somehow got Raleigh thrown in between stops in San Jose and St. Paul)
• Rod Brind’Amour night in Raleigh commemorating his 1,000th NHL point

But I’m not even sure if tonight is a story about the Ducks as a squad, so much as it is a story about one particular Duck with understandably bitter memories of his last game played in Raleigh.
Look out, ‘Canes. It’s payback night.
Prediction: Ducks 4, Hurricanes 2. Goals by Pronger, Kunitz, Pahlsson, and Getzlaf.

p.s. Congrats to BoC all-star Mike Chen for his new work on FoxSports.

Top regular season teams, calendar year 2006

With the Sharks and Stars starting the season with lofty 5-1 records, the Ducks will need two points tonight against the Red Wings to keep pace with the Pacific Division leaders.

And as much as I like bashing Detroit, you gotta hand it to them, they are a regular season monster, weak Central Division or not. Here is a listing of the best regular-season records (.600 and above) since January 1, 2006:

Team	GP	W-L-O	Win%	GF/G	GA/G	Dif/G
Detroit	49	35-8-6	.776	3.55	2.33	1.22
New Jersey	48	33-11-4	.729	2.92	2.40	0.52
Dallas	51	34-12-5	.716	2.92	2.51	0.41
San Jose	51	33-12-6	.706	3.43	2.67	0.76
Buffalo	49	32-13-4	.694	3.61	2.73	0.88
Anaheim	49	29-12-8	.673	3.24	2.65	0.59
Carolina	51	31-15-5	.657	3.31	3.06	0.25
Atlanta	49	29-17-3	.622	3.35	2.94	0.41

Ever since last year, when the NHL adopted its division-heavy schedule, there’s been a lot of talk about “What’s the toughest division in hockey?” Frankly, I’m not that concerned about it; I think it’s generally a mechanism to make fans feel better about where their team sits in the overall standings.

However, if you were to make that judgment, what would it be based on?
a) The best team from the division (a Central argument)?
b) The worst team from the division (a Northwest argument)?
c) The most dominant teams (a Pacific argument)?

Let’s hear it, people: what is the toughest division in hockey and why?

Kings trade for ghosts of Anaheim’s past

From a Duck fan's perspective, the Kings have certainly had themselves quite a bold offseason:

Apr. 21 Hire Dean Lombardi as GM
May 22 Hire Marc Crawford as head coach
Jun 21 Trade Pavol Demitra to the Minnesota Wild for Patrick O’Sullivan and a 1st round pick
Jul 1-4 Sign UFAs Rob Blake, Scott Thornton, Alyn McCauley, and Brian Willsie
July 5 Trade 2 draft picks to the Vancouver Canucks for Dan Cloutier
Sep 27 Negotiate a 2-year extension with Cloutier

And then today, Dean the Machine throws another curveball by trading C Eric Belanger and D Tim Gleason to the defending-champ Carolina Hurricanes for D Oleg Tverdovsky and the rights to D Jack Johnson.

Tverdovsky played for the Mighty Ducks on two separate occasions, and was at least for a few seasons was a good-to-excellent player. Perhaps a return to Southern California sunshine will give him a Selannesque reinvigoration. And even though he was an observer for most of last year’s playoffs, the guy’s got two cup rings now--even if he's lucky that's good enough for me.

As for Jack Johnson, well, his only connection with Anaheim was in the days leading up to the Crosby draft. Anaheim had drawn the 2nd overall pick, and consensus opinion was that JJ was the best available prospect. GM Brian Burke surprisingly passed on Johnson to pick winger Bobby Ryan, and the Canes nabbed him with the next pick. Now the jury will be out on the Ryan vs. Johnson draft decision for several years still, but I think the Kings got a mammoth prospect.

Oleg could be a very nice gamble for the Kings, perhaps, as he is likely to play behind the already formidable grouping of Rob Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky, Mattias Norstrom, Aaron Miller, and Brent Sopel. He’s got loads of experience and an above-average skill set; if motivated he could be a nice player for them. I don’t know if people are paying enough attention, but top-to-bottom the Kings could end up with the best blueline in the state of California. And that is saying quite a bit.

Even Dan Cloutier could be a decent move for them, as the Kings have lacked stability in the net since the turn of the century.

Of course, these statements depend on L.A. avoiding a Final-Destination-style slew of injuries, which is of course a shaky proposition. But still, looking across at what the Kings are doing this year, it feels very familiar. Retooling the front office, replacing older superstars with promising kids and role players, fortifying the blue line, juggling options in net.

There is something very Burke-ish going on at Staple Center. On this site they will certainly be the darkhorses this year, but I’m not so sure their day isn’t coming. The Battle of California may be heating up, folks.

(stolen from a messageboard somewhere)
p.s. One fun note—I caught one University of Michigan game on TV this year, and Jack Johnson was paired up with Anaheim’s 2007 1st round pick, Mark Mitera. Bet they’re going to have a fun year paired together this year, knowing that they’re soon-to-be cross-town rivals.