Takes and trash talk from both ALL sides of the NHL's most obscure PATHETIC* rivalry

* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!

Showing posts with label Sammy Pahlsson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sammy Pahlsson. Show all posts

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Ducks Gameday—Sleek starts a campaign

Florida Panthers (4-8-1, 15th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (9-6-1, 3rd in west)
The truth about cats and birds.


I don't have anything to say about tonight's matchup against the Cats, but I do want to recommend The Litter Box, a Panthers-themed hockey blog that I enjoy thoroughly. Whale4Ever mixes his hockey updates with plenty of awesome images and plenty of snark, and I'm much more pro-Cat thanks to his efforts. Rock on, dude.

Instead, I wanted to ride the coattails of the campaign fever that's been taking over BoC, between Mike Chen's push for Seto/Gooch to the All-Star Game and Rudy Kelly's Doughty for the Calder Trophy movement that's just picking up steam. Well, just because I'm apolitical and anti-voting doesn't mean that I don't care about important issues, and there's certainly one movement I'd like to throw my negligible weight behind. As a bonus, it's not even anything I have to convince you readers to do—the primary audience for this message is for just one person only: Brian Burke.


C'mon, Burkie, you know that Sammy would re-sign you.

As you know, Brian Burke is probably headed elsewhere next year, and I've already stated that he's got my blessing—at least he's left the team in a flexible enough salary position next year that a replacement GM won't be cap-cramped to start the new job. Here's who the Ducks currently have under salary for next year, with everyone else a free agent:
Forwards: Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Selanne, Carter, Ryan + some Bertuzzi money
Defensemen: Pronger
Goalies: Giguere, Hiller
Combined, it comes to some $32.5 M, which is a bit pricy, but at least some expensive positions are pre-filled (goaltending, scoring forwards, top d-man). Well, over the next few weeks I plan on coming up with Burke's Bucket List: a list of items I'd like to see Burke do before hitting "greener pastures" next summer.

First and foremost is re-signing Sammy Pahlsson, who of course I could write volumes about (as we'll see once this campaign really gets rolling), but for now, let's just focus on the penalty killing. Since Burke took over the team, the Ducks have taken strange pride in their ability to take penalties, and Pahlsson has quietly shouldered the brunt of that. Since the lockout (regular season only), Sammy has played nearly 1,103 shorthanded minutes, which is the seventh highest total in the league behind Bouwmeester, Phillips, Lidstrom, Havelid, Chara, and Keith -- all defensemen. His total is 222 more minutes than the next highest forward, Ottawa's Chris Kelly (note: this was a hasty study just looking at just the top 90 minute-getters for each season, but I think it's correct).

So Burke, you owe it to Ducks fans, Ducks players, and especially to Sammy himself -- four more years, dude. I'm not even going to make a recommendation on dollars; whatever it takes is fine by me -- even if it's an overpayment, we still probably owe Sammy for the harsh service he's endured for the past four years.

So anyway, that's the start of my campaign; more to come in future posts. Feel free to lend your support in the comments.

* * *

More Tragedy in the Oilogosphere: You'll of course recall last month's incident between DMFB and the Oilers pressbox that led to Dave's departure from hockey blogging. Well, now the damage is doubled. Mike W, another CiO contributor and inspiration for my hockey blogging has likewise decided to give up his posting, and again, I am crushed by the news.

Mikey, please keep visiting, and trust me, I'll post anything you draw. And don't give up the Chamber of Comics -- it's sheer awesomeness, at least the parts that Internet Explorer will let me see.

I would be remiss if I didn't link to this -- pretty much the best thing any hockey blogger has ever done, ever.

* * *

And lastly, part two of my interview with Tom L. and Tapeleg from The Rink Podcast has now been posted, and this time it's Sleek from start to finish. Lots covered there, from some philosophy of what this blog is all about to remeniscing on the 2003 Cup run, and some follow-up thoughts about Paul Kariya. Enjoy!

Prediction: Ducks 3, Cats 1. Goals by Kunitz, Pahlsson (shorthanded, I'm sure), and Carter.

Go Ducks.

Monday, August 18, 2008

The Red Wings’ Biggest Rival: the Ducks? Here’s Five Reasons Why…

The Chief over at Abel to Yzerman has created a bit of a project to pass the summer dead time, trying to categorically determine who really represents Detroit’s best current rival. He starts his study with the Colorado Avalanche, the first of ten candidates, and scores them in six categories: Quality of Team, Hate Factor, Past Playoff Adventures, Blogger Quality, Regular Season Sadness Factor, and Miscellaneous. It’s a pretty decent set of criteria, and aside from Blogger Quality (Ducks bloggers are a bit shorthanded), Anaheim figures to score highly across the board.

Still, I think it’s worth writing up a case for the Ducks, though I should take a moment and clarify: in this post I am writing about the hatred of Red Wings fans, not who Ducks fans hate. Detroit’s rival search is much different from Anaheim’s, in that the Wings have been alone in the Central Division for so long that they need to their sights elsewhere. Go see Dan Wood for the Ducks rivalry question (bonus: my answer is in the first comment there)—we’ve still got plenty of options in the Pacific Division, with Detroit and Edmonton thrown in for fun.

Anyway, as promised, here's five reason why Wings fans should hate the web-footed ones, Five Guys Who Eliminated Detroit in their Last Two Playoff Meetings. Not many active NHLers can boast about eliminating the Red Wings in their last two tries, I think, and while this is by no means a complete list, I don’t think that it would get much longer with more research. It's a rare achievement, as Detroit has a 26-9 series record since the '94 lockout. Here's some Wing-killers, though:

1) J.S. Giguere: Really, this conversation should start and end with Jiggy and his 2003 upset sweep, but it’s worth talking about his 2007 series as well. In both series Giguere made just enough saves to win, but aside from that these series were quite different. Let’s take a look:

2003: I can’t stress enough how awesome the 2003 Wings were—hell, just look at their 12 forwards that postseason: Yzerman, Shanahan, Fedorov, Hull, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Robitaille, Larionov, Maltby, Draper, and McCarty. Heck, if they find a place for the Grind Line in the HHOF, this could end up being a list of eleven hall of famers plus Holmstrom. Sure enough, the Wings dominated play, outshooting the Mighty Ducks 171-120 in four-plus games (including a triple-OT and a single-OT). And yet, with all those snipers taking all those shots, they managed to score only six goals. Six. Goals. Giguere murdered in his playoff debut, sweeping the defending champs, which not only exorcised Anaheim’s playoff demons from the past (the Ducks were a combined 0-8 against Detroit in their first two postseasons), but also started a Cinderella run to the seventh game of the cup finals. And as impressive as Giguere’s later sweep of the Wild was (4 games, 1 GA), I really have to say that Minnesota represents his second-most impressive series of 2003. Giguere finished Round One with three first stars of the game and one second star. How sick is that?

2007: This was a different story completely, as the '07 Ducks were a much more formidable team in front of their netminder. Long gone were the days of getting murdered on the shot board, as were the days when Giguere had to be the unreal difference-maker. Still, the Red Wings were the top seed in the west, and were dominant especially on home ice and on special teams. Indeed, this was more a Goliath vs. Goliath battle than anything that had happened in 2003.

Giguere ended up with more saves in the four-game 2003 sweep than he made in the six-game 2007 win, and his save percentage wasn’t even in the same stratosphere (2003: .965, 2007: .908), but one thing that J.S. was able to duplicate against the Winged Wheel: overtime perfection. Combined, Giguere went to OT against the Wings four times, and four times he came away a winner. 46 Detroit OT shots. 46 Giguere OT saves.

2) Sammy Pahlsson: Another member of the 2003 and 2007 squads, Pahlsson remains the longest-serving Duck (his Anaheim debut was November 24, 2000, one day before Giguere’s) and of course has been my favorite player since well before this blog started. You want offense? Go buy a Selanne jersey. You want flash? Getzlaf is your guy. You want hard work, defensive positioning, and attention to detail? Welcome to the Pahlsson Party.

2003: In the first cup run, Pahlsson centered a line with 19-year-veteran Steve “Stumpy” Thomas and 19-year-old Stan “Cheesy” Chistov, which would prove to be a great source for secondary scoring throughout that playoff year. The Sammy line was a huge boost in the Detroit series, as that trio contributed 4 of Anaheim’s 10 goals scored in the series (including a really cheesy Cheesy goal in G3).

2007: By this time Sammy was the unquestioned shutdown center for the Ducks, on a “Nothing" Line with Travis Moen and Rob Niedermayer. It was a banner year for Pahlsson, who probably got robbed of both a Smythe and a Selke within weeks of each other, but as usual put up zero fuss. Against Detroit, he worked the most difficult minutes available against Zetterberg and Datsyuk, and even got the two split up in an attempt to escape the Swedish Shadow.

In each of Anaheim's long playoff years, Sammy ended up playing the defensive center position on my favorite line of the postseason. His point totals against Detroit weren't that stunning (5 points in 10 games), but he did finish each series a +2 while averaging more than 4.5 shorthanded minutes per game.

3) Rob Niedermayer: The last member of the “2003 and 2007” club, Rob also played a significant role in twice eliminating Detroit. In both years, he played wing on the shutdown line, but had surprisingly strong offensive numbers (well, at least for Rob) while playing against the Wings' best.

2003: In his first playoffs for the Ducks, Rob played on a shutdown line with Steve Rucchin and Mike Leclerc, and proved to be a really strong forechecker. I remember him being a fabulous "first man in" after a dumped puck; Rob's strength is really on the offensive boards. Rob got 3 assists in the 4 games, which in Rob terms is phenomenal. In his first 31 playoff games with the Panthers before 2003, Rob had 4 assists.

2007: While Rob’s biggest contribution to the post-lockout Ducks was probably being Scott’s brother, he was also a strong contributor on Pahlsson’s shutdown line, strong enough that the trio played together for all 103 games of that season/postseason. Rob scored 3 goals in the Wings series to lead the team, and even though one of them was an empty-netter, we'll see below the importance of being able to score on an empty net.

Despite his shut-down role, Rob’s actually had impressive points totals against the postseason Wings: in 10 games, he has scored 8 points (0.8 pts/gm). Over the rest of his Anaheim career, he has played 50 playoff games NOT against Detroit and scored 15 points (0.3 pts/gm). Of course, Rob has his drawbacks also – between the two series he played more than 18 minutes of power play time without being on the ice for a PPG-for, but that’s more of a bad-use-of-personnel issue than a knock on Rob.

4) Scott Niedermayer: With Scott, you have to go way back in the time machine to look at his first time eliminating Detroit – he was a third-year player playing in his first cup finals for the New Jersey Devils. Still, Scott is another player who is 2-0 lifetime against the Winged Wheel, and while he might not inspire the same level of hatred as a Giguere or a Pronger, he’s scored some awfully kick-to-the-nuts goals against the postseason Wings.

1995: Ah, remember the days when lockouts would only last part of a season? At any rate, the 1995 cup finals featured Niedermayer’s Devils and the Detroit Red Wings, who at that point were 40 years removed from their most recent championship. Scott and the rest of the smothering Devils continued that drought, dropping the Wings in four straight. Though Claude Lemieux would end up taking home the Conn Smythe, Niedermayer had an impressive finals, with a highlight-reel, end-to-end goal and three assists in the four-game sweep.

2007: And if you think that ’95 goal was a back-breaker, Scott got even more clutch a dozen years (and 127 playoff games) later. He scored two goals in the six-game ’07 WCF, and both turned out to be huge. Game Two in Detroit he scored the game-winner from down low in the 15th minute of overtime to tie the series at 1 game apiece (assists to Rob & Sammy). Then, late in regulation of Game Five, with the Wings up by a goal and Giguere pulled for a 6-on-4, Scott delivered the "kick to the groin": a weak shot that deflected off the stick of Nick Lidstrom and fluttered lazily over Hasek’s shoulder (1:15 into this video). That shot, more than anything, decided that coin-flip series in Anaheim’s favor, and was probably the strongest case for Niedermayer’s Conn Smythe win.

The craziest thing about Scott’s tendency for huge goals is that the guy is pretty mediocre at shooting pucks. He’s nowhere near Pronger or Lidstrom in this regard. Still, there’s a lot of benefit having a full-time rover, and sometimes his weak-sauce shot is exactly what is needed to disrupt a goalie’s rhythm. Scott might not be as despised by Wings fans like Giguere or Pronger, but it’s tough to argue the importance of the goals he’s scored.

5) Chris Pronger: Ah yes, Sasquatch (as they call him). Pronger is the only member on this list to ever get eliminated by the Red Wings (four times on the Blues, I believe), but he’s certainly had his comeuppance since the lockout. In fact, one could make a claim that one of the biggest differences between Detroit’s 2008 cup run from the two previous attempts was that this time they didn’t have to go through Pronger. Or his elbows.

2006: Pronger was a monster for the Oilers in ’06, as the Red Wings would learn early and the Ducks would find out two rounds later. He scored seven points in the six-game Detroit series and ended the series a +4. That began a 2003-like run for the 8th-seeded Oilers, who proceeded to eliminate the Sharks and the Ducks before bowing out in their own SCF G7. Pronger finished Round One with three first stars of the game and one second star. How sick is that?

2007: Pronger was much more muted offensively in the ’07 WCF, only recording three assists in five games played, but his defensive numbers more than made up for that. In the '07 series, Detroit didn't score a single even-strength or power-play goal while Pronger was on the ice. While that’s impressive enough, I doubt that’s what Red Wings fans remember most.



Get off my elbow, Homer.

There’s a real case to be made that Pronger was the best player in both the 2006 and 2007 playoffs. Except for the technicalities that in 2006 he was a cup-loser and in 2007 he was suspended twice, he could have been the first back-to-back Conn Smyther since Mario Lemieux. Against the Wings both those years, he scored 10 points in 11 games and was on the ice for 20 GF, 10 GA, all while averaging more than 32 minutes per game. And despite his reputation, against the Wings he only had eight minors (somehow Rob Niedermayer went to the box for five minutes after this play).



The Two-Time Wing Killers. Can they make it Three?

I know this piece got awfully long and if you’re still with me, congrats. Still, I think it was worth going through the stories of these two-time Wing-killers, because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of players who have such streaks going (the only other one I could come up with in very limited research is Sandis Ozolinsh, who eliminated the Wings in his last three meetings – ’99, ’00, and ’03).

Combined, these five Ducks players made huge contributions in eliminating the Wings in ’95, ’03, ’06, and ’07, and it’s not a huge stretch to think if they hadn’t, Detroit might have won as many as four additional Stanley Cups by now. And really, who wants to live in that alternate reality? (Wings fans are insufferable enough as is.)

There's still plenty of other reasons for Wings fans to hate the Ducks (I didn't even mention the yappy mouth of Corey Perry), but I think this fivesome might prove as strong a rivalry argument as any. I'm hopeful that Detroit fans found this post as angering to read as I found it pleasing to write, because you know what that means. They'll be licking their lips for the next matchup, their chance for postseason revenge.

Welcome to the rivalry, Wings fans. Go Ducks.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ducks Gameday—Even strength bizarro stats

Colorado Avalanche (30-25-5, t-10th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (33-23-7, t-3rd in west)

The Ducks have gone 6-1 in the sevengames since Teemu's return, and have outscored opponents 23-11. Just for fun, let's take a look at the players' even-strength results over those seven games (pay attention, there's a surprise at the end):

Player

GPES Min.PLUS/hrMINUS/hrDIFF/hr

C. Perry

7

98

+3.66

-0.00

+3.66

R. Getzlaf

7

102

+4.10

-0.59

+3.51

R. Niedermayer

7

86

+3.47

-0.69

+2.78

M. Schneider

7

115

+3.65

-1.04

+2.61

R. Carter

7

77

+3.92

-1.57

+2.35

T. Moen

3

27

+2.25

-0.00

+2.25

K. Huskins

7

82

+2.94

-0.74

+2.21

J. Giguere

6

274

+2.85

-0.66

+2.19

S. O’Donnell

7

83

+2.88

-0.72

+2.16

C. Pronger

7

114

+3.15

-1.05

+2.10

T. Marchant

7

87

+2.75

-0.69

+2.06

C. Kunitz

7

93

+3.23

-1.29

+1.94

D. Weight

3

36

+1.69

-0.00

+1.69

B. May

5

38

+3.17

-1.59

+1.59

F. Beauchemin

7

132

+2.27

-0.91

+1.36

T. Bertuzzi

7

91

+1.99

-0.66

+1.32

J. Hiller

1

47

+2.54

-1.27

+1.27

S. Niedermayer

7

120

+2.00

-1.00

+1.00

B. Sutherby

6

46

+1.32

-1.32

+0.00

G. Parros

7

48

+1.25

-1.25

+0.00

T. Selanne

7

83

+1.45

-2.17

-0.72

S. Pahlsson

4

47

+1.28

-2.57

-1.28


Whoa, I'm just as stunned as anybody. Selanne, last year's scoring leader, has the worst offensive numbers for anyone not named Sutherby, Parros, or Pahlsson, whereas Sammy, last year's Selke guy, has the worst defensive numbers of anyone?! Both Teemu and Sammy, of course, are coming off significant time off (plus both were dinged for the empty-netter against vs. Dallas), so expect these numbers to improve. But it did catch me off-guard; they have inspired better play than they've exhibited themselves. What the table doesn't tell you is that Teemu has the best power play rate on the team over those seven games, and that Pahlsson has the worst penalty kill rate on the team (he tends to get dinged for being the lone forward on 3-on-5s, though).

Who's benefitted the most from Selanne's return? I guess you have to say Ryan Carter. I don't know if Selanne's giving Carter some free pointers in practice, but after not scoring a goal in his first 27 games this season, Carter suddenly has 4 goals in the last 5 games.

Two things I'm in favor of: (1) Bertuzzi with Getzlaf and Perry, leaving Kunitz with Selanne. Bertuzzi's biggest problem is his refusal to shoot the puck, and it drives me nuts what chances he's been passing up in Selanne-created space. Kunitz has no such qualms about using open space, and should get better results regardless of centerman. (2) Brian Sutherby, especially on the penalty kill. I like to make fun of Sutherby (Finny's new boy), because it took him 25 games to get an assist, but it hasn't mattered too much. He's got good energy for that fourth line, and is used sparingly enough to be rested for shorthanded situations. I never thought anyone was going to cut into the Pahlsson-Rob-Moen-Marchant forward PK minutes this year, but both Sutherby and Carter have made a good case for themselves.

Anyways, as I noted before, I'll be in the Row B seats tonight, wearing my lucky green shirt and drinking with the locals. Feel free to stop by and say hi, or maybe it'd be easier to find me outside at intermission (non-Katella side).

Prediction: In both meetings thus far, the Ducks have come away with 2-1 victories, but I'm thinking tonight will be a wild one. Ducks 3, Avs 2. Goals by Schneider, Pahlsson, and the scoring machine Ryan Carter.

Go Ducks.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Ducks Gameday—Carter tries to play God

Toronto Maple Leafs (16-18-8, 13th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (22-17-6, 6th in west)

So even passing readers should know that I have an unhealthy addiction to Sammy Pahlsson. From poetry to trophy talk to analysis to fantasy fun to putting him in every game prediction, I think I've made clear my position: Pahlsson is god.

So of course I'm going to be a little reticent to acknowledge when some kid comes and plays the murderer's minutes, and does it capably. Of course I'm glad it's been working out for the point-desperate Ducks, but if Ryan Carter can be a shutdown wizard in Pahlsson's absence, it takes a bit of the luster off the SuperSwede.

Grudgingly, I'll hand it to Carter, though; he's worked himself in nicely on the stopper line between Travis "the omen" Moen and Fun Bobby Niedermayer. In the last three games, he has averaged more than 13 even-strength minutes a game, fulfilling all the necessary Pahlsson functions:

  • Winning faceoffs (or at least losing them well)
  • Shadowing key opponents
  • Throwing his body around
  • Keeping the puck in the opponent's end
One tendency I particularly like out of Carter (because it's something I notice also in Pahlsson's game) is his willingness to shoot the puck immediately in nearly every circumstance. It's not necessarily a play that results in a goal-for, usually, but rather it's almost a defensive mechanism. It reduces the risk of a turnover, while forcing opponents to start from their own net.

In 10 games since Carter's most recent call-up, he's played 87 even-strength minutes with an even goal-differential, plus-2 and minus-2. He's also spent some 3 shorthanded minutes without a goal-against. It's impressive work from a kid now filling in one of the tougher set of skates in the league; hopefully he can keep it going while Sammy's down.

He's still not in Sammy territory yet, though. Pahlsson this season has averaged those same thirteen difficult minutes, plus he throws in nearly five minutes a game on the penalty-kill as well; Carter thus far has only done the even-strength work. And if Carter wants a really lofty goal, he can try to mirror Pahlsson's playoff results, where he went plus-17 and minus-8 (a ratio of more than 2-to-1!) at even-strength against some of the toughest top lines in the playoffs. Oh, and he led all postseason skaters in penalty-killing time, hits, and faceoff wins, too.

Still, keep up the good work, kid.

============================================

Anyways, the Maple Leafs roll into town for the first time in more than 50 months, but who's counting? I was looking over the game roster of that last visit in 2003:
  • There are eight players I see that are still with their squads: Sundin, Tucker, McCabe, Kaberle, and Ponikarovsky for Toronto, and Giguere, Pahlsson, and R. Niedermayer for Anaheim.


  • The Mighty Ducks were quite a multicultural team back then; on the 20-man roster there were 8 countries represented, and 10 players hailed from overseas (Fedorov, Chistov, Vishnevski, Sykora, Prospal, Pahlsson, Havelid, Ozolinsh, Salei, and Gerber). As I've noted, lately the Ducks have played a 20-man roster that represents 3 countries, with only Swiss back-up goalie Jonas Hiller representing Europe.
For a Toronto angle on things, check out Pension Plan Puppets or Battle of Ontario (not just for gloating at Senator fans anymore!).

Prediction: The Ducks that played in the 2nd period against Nashville is a scary bunch, and you might think that they are set to wipe out the Leafs, but I'm not sure. I'm thinking that Toronto is starting to realize that it will be a long time until they can actually beat their rival Senators, and the next-best thing may be to beat the team that beat Ottawa. Still, the webbed ones carry the day: Ducks 4, Leafs 3. Goals by Getzlaf, Niedermayer (I don't care which one), Pahlsson, and Bochenski. If Pahlsson is still injured, Carter can feel free to substitute his first career goal anytime he's ready.

Go Ducks.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Battle of California trilogy, Sharks-Ducks 12/18 photos







Here are a few photos from Anaheim's 2-0 win over the Sharks on Tuesday. NHL.com's recap of San Jose's 2-1 OT shootout win at Anaheim is available here.

The Sharks held a 2-hour team meeting Friday instead of its usual practice at Sharks Ice. The meeting was in part a result of poor play against Phoenix and Anaheim, in part a reaction to post-practice comments Jeremy Roenick made to Mercury News columnist Mark Purdy, as detailed in this article: These are games that matter for Sharks.

Jeremy Roenick knows exactly what must be done. And he's not afraid to say it. This is why Sharks General Manager Doug Wilson brought Roenick's veteran voice to the team. After missing five games while resting his achy knees, Roenick returned to the lineup Thursday and scored a power-play goal. But while watching those five games from the press box, he made some telling observations, which he shared after practice one day this week.

"When this team gets in trouble," Roenick said, "we wait for somebody else to do the job; instead of taking initiative to do what you can do to help, we're waiting for somebody else to do it. . . . With the exception of maybe a couple guys, we have no grit in terms of our meanness to want to compete. And when we do that, we're an easy team to play against."...

"Guys are doing their own thing, not supporting one another," Roenick said. "When you don't work away from the puck and help the guy you're playing with, you're just putting him in a bad situation. We get caught standing around, looking, more lackadaisical instead of stepping up the pace. . . . It comes down to how much you really want it. Are you here just to make the paycheck and pass the time away, or did you come here to win?"...

"I think we have to come to the realization that you're not letting yourself down, you're letting 20 other guys down by not competing," Roenick said. "A lot of people are looking to you for bringing that leadership, and when it's not brought, it's easy for the other guy to say, 'Well, he didn't do it so why should I?' And that's a disease."

I have to write up the Stockton Thunder v Bakersfield Condors game I attended last night, Bakersfield earned a 6-4 win on the road. Yutaka Fukufuji was in goal for Bakersfield and former University of Denver goaltender Glenn Fisher was in net for Stockton. 2005 NHL Entry Draft first round selection Ryan O'Marra also plays for the Stockton Thunder. Bakersfield dropped 4 unanswered goals on Stockton in the third period to squash their come-from-behind attempt. After that I will post a few quotes from Roenick after San Jose's 3-2 OT loss to Phoenix.

Earl can caption the photos above, or add your own in the comments. Note the duck hanging from a rope in the third photo. Nicely done.

[Correction] Center Ryan O'Marra was the NY Islanders first round selection in 2005, 15th overall. O'Marra, Robert Nilsson and a 2007 1st round pick were dealt to Edmonton for Ryan Smyth on February 27, 2007. O'Marra was named yesterday to the National Conference roster for the 2008 ECHL Allstar game which will be held in Stockton January 23rd. Stockton Thunder rookie left wing Jacob Micflikier and captain Brad Farynuk also were named to the Allstar roster.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Earl answers his mail: Forward Lines, a year-to-year comparison

Sleek,

The Ducks play so far has me frustrated. And you seem like the guy to help explain the frustration. I'm curious about ES TOI this year versus last year for the Duck's containment line. As yourself, I'm a huge fan of Pahlsson, but it seems like that line is getting more ES TOI this year. Could just be my imagination.

However, if it's true, then it might explain some of the drop off in scoring. And also point to a coaching phylosophy that needs to change. The Ducks need to dictate play, rather than react (by over-using the containment line).
Keep up the great work on the blog.

Jeremy
I'm a sucker for flattery, and yeah, I do have been keeping some spreadsheets for this sort of question, so without further ado, let's take a look at the forward lines for Anaheim, this year compared to last year. In a lazy move, I'm just using screen captures of Excel tables; hopefully they are all legible.

For the Ducks, it really makes sense to compare forwards by their on-ice responsibility, because I think context matters a great deal in Carlyle's strategy. The Ducks play a top scoring line against the opposition's top defenders, a stopper line against the opposition's top scorers, and a sheltered line that for the most part doesn't carry either responsibility. The tables below are meant to reflect that, and show each line's even-strength minutes per game, even-strength points per 60 minutes, and even-strength goal-differential per 60 minutes. I'll try to indicate numbers that stand out to me after each table.

The Top Line:
With the departure of Teemu Selanne, the top line minutes this year have gone to the kids--Getzlaf and Perry. In terms of even-strength TOI, it seems the top line is playing more than it did last year. The thing about this year's top line is that while their point production seems adequate when compared against last year, this year's version bleeds goals-against at a higher level than Selanne's line ever did. It's a fair concern, as it does put a lot of the burden of outscoring onto the other lines.

The Stopper Line:
Unlike the other lines in this analysis, the stopper line continues this year without any change in personnel. In terms of Jeremy's question, we can note that the even-strength minutes-per-game have increased, and also noticeable is that the stopper line is scoring at a lower rate than they were last year. Even so, the rate at which the line gets outscored (quite a reasonable outcome considering the difficulty of minutes) hasn't changed a whole lot--the stopper line is still contributing like they did last year, though with a lower offensive output.

The Shelter Line:
This is where things get a little shady, as this "second line" personnel has been fairly shifty this year, and even Dustin Penner last year wasn't a full-time member of the Getzlaf line. Still, this gives a sense of who's getting the easier minutes on the team and what's being done with them. A big reason for last year's success can be pinned on the fact that Getzlaf and Perry were able to dominate these minutes, something that McDonald and Bertuzzi, in particular, seem unable to do. These players, too, seem to have picked up some minutes-per-game, something we've seen on every line thus far.

A quick look at special teams:
Here are each year's top minute-men on the power play and on the penalty kill. The power play scoring rates are obviously lower this year than last year, and a lot of that can be pinned on the 2nd unit's personnel--giving Mark Mowers and Rob Niedermayer power play time isn't in any winning coach's strategy book. Going by minutes, it seems that the Ducks have less power play time per game than last year, which probably correlates to the additional even-strength ice time we've seen on every line.

As for the penalty kill, the top pairing of Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer seem to be as effective as last year, but the secondary unit of Marchant and Moen has seen a steep drop-off in goal prevention.

Conclusions:

I think this analysis has been useful in seeing which minutes, in particular, seem to be preventing the Ducks from experiencing success similar to last year's. The problems that I can see are that the shelter line isn't finding a way to outscore soft competition, the top line is allowing more goals-against, and the stopper line could score some more goals. However, on an overall level I can't say that overplaying the Pahlsson line looks to be the Ducks' problem--that line, at least, has differential rates similar enough to last year.

Really, though, the Ducks' problem isn't really one that's explained through the forward minutes, I think. Certainly there are effects that come from personnel changes, but I think what's causing the dropoff more is the lack of a second Norris defenseman; last year these lines either had the benefit of usually a Pronger or a Niedermayer on their blueline, but nowadays Pronger minutes can only be distributed so far (usually in a defensive setting, as nobody else is really trustworthy).

The Ducks' movie theme thus far.

I have no idea what sort of team the Ducks would become if or when Scott Niedermayer rejoins the team, but I gotta think that a lot of these issues could be compensated by a blueline that's better at retrieving the puck and creating offense through transition. In that regard, TSN's Bob McKenzie has fantastic news for Ducks fans; Scott may be returning to the roster very soon.

If that happens, I'll gladly re-run these numbers after several games to see what effect another Norris defender has on the forward minutes. I'm not sure it can get back to last year's numbers, but I'll be happy for any improvement to what's become a rather mediocre team. In the meantime, I'll probably throw another post up pretty soon to show the defenseman minutes, where the Ducks' year-to-year dropoff will probably be more apparent.

Thanks for the question, Jeremy. As always, Go Ducks.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Ducks Gameday—Bertuzzi: more notorious than productive

Anaheim Ducks (11-9-4, t-3rd in west) at Vancouver Canucks (12-9-2, t-3rd in west)

I am sick as a dog today, so I'll try to keep this short and sweet. Tonight will be Todd Bertuzzi's first game against Vancouver since he was traded away for Luongo, plus it will be Anaheim's first game against the Canucks since eliminating them in five games last spring. Of course there's plenty of reaction from the Vancouver side of things: Canucks and Beyond, Canucks Hockey Blog, the Yankee Canuck, Orland Kurtenblog, and Waiting for Stanley all have some pregame that's much less congested.


While I understand why Todd Bertuzzi gets the spotlight today, it should be noted that Duck fans are still waiting to get some acceptable production out of the $4 M monster; despite playing the easiest 5-on-5 minutes on the Ducks, Bertuzzi has the team's worst 5-on-5 goals-against rate. Here's a comparison to the guy with the toughest 5-on-5 minutes in the league (source: Behind the Net, min. games = 5, min. TOI = 5).
Todd Bertuzzi, 10 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: -0.18 (589 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.31 (565 / 628)
Plus per hour: +2.44, Minus per hour: -3.05, Diff per hour: -0.61

Sammy Pahlsson, 19 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: +0.33 (1 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.23 (510 / 628)
Plus per hour: +1.69, Minus per hour: -1.44, Diff per hour: +0.24
We'll see how well Bertuzzi is able to pull a season together, but at this point, he's got a lot of improving to do. Carlyle has sheltered his minutes as best as he can, now Bert has got to find a way to start outscoring some of the worst opposition in the league.

See also: my poem about Bertuzzi's concussion and my Bertuzzi-inspired comic book series.

Prediction: Lost a little bit in this preview is the fact that Roberto Luongo has only managed to beat J.S. Giguere once in eight tries last year, and that victory took two overtime periods to achieve. He's still the only goaltender to beat Giguere in a playoff OT game, but other than that has had a real difficult time being the better goaltender when going head-to-head. Giguere keeps the Luongdomination going tonight: Ducks 4, Canucks 2. Goals by Kunitz, Sutherby, Pahlsson, and Schneider; Bertuzzi finishes a -2.

Go Ducks.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Ducks Gameday—Puttin' square pegs into round holes

Phoenix Coyotes (2-5-0, t-14th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (4-6-1, t-9th in west)

Missing Players by Game

(includes games where a player was unavailable to finish the game)

Well, it hasn't been the best start to the season for the champion Ducks, who between travel and injury have been reduced for the most part to a rather mediocre squad. I'm still unsure how a fully-iced Ducks squad figures to perform this year, and from the sounds of things, I don't think I'll be finding out anytime soon.

Since Bertuzzi went down early in the Minnesota game, though, it's been especially thin for the Anaheim power play. Coach Carlyle in the face of a limited roster has been loading up talent on the first power play unit, but then filling the second unit with his penalty killing personnel. The table below shows five players who, despite not playing hardly any power play time last season, have put in some serious PP minutes the last six games.

The New Power Players

Rob
Niedermayer

Mark
Mowers

Travis
Moen

Sammy
Pahlsson

Todd
Marchant

Games Played Last Year

82

78

82

82

56

Total PP TOI Last Year

15:40

15:04

13:52

13:16

8:01

Avg PP TOI Last Year

0:11

0:11

0:10

0:09

0:08

Games Played Last 6 gms

5

5

6

6

4

Total PP TOI Last 6 gms

18:18

17:24

3:40

4:26

3:18

Avg PP TOI Last 6 gms

3:40

3:29

0:37

0:44

0:50

Pct Increase from LY Avg

1916%

1802%

361%

457%

576%

Season High PP TOI

6:13

4:55

2:34

2:34

2:26

Pct Increase from LY Avg

3254%

2545%

1518%

1586%

1700%


Thus far the five have combined for one power play assist (Sammy, of course), but I'm not going to knock their efforts; it's really not their gig. Anaheim's checking forwards are a special bunch, for sure, but their contributions aren't really on the ANA portion of the scoreboard. The fact that these checkers are getting such decent power play time really begs the question, though: why isn't Bobby Ryan cracking the lineup right now, even for an emergency special-teams-only engagement? Those are minutes where an offensive player could make an impact and prevent Anaheim's penalty-killers from being exhausted from unproductive power play time.

The checking line just aren't suited to be power play personnel, no matter how much ice time Carlyle insists on giving them. He may as well glue nail clippings to his lip and wait until it becomes a moustache.

Anyways, Phoenix is in town tonight for the first of eight on the season, and I'm not quite sure if that's a good thing. Since the lockout, the Ducks have used the Desert Dogs as a steady source of standings points; in sixteen games the Ducks are a whopping 13-2-1. A huge factor here is that in those 16 games, the Ducks' power play has produced 23 goals while the Coyotes' power play has produced only 8. The two points seem attainable enough, but with Anaheim's decidedly mediocre power play and overall sketchy lineup, it's not nearly as in the bag as it could be. (For the 'Yote angle, check out PB's take at One Fan's Perspective.)

Still, I've managed to come up with a saying that's annoyingly helpful in putting it all in perspective. As discouraging as the first eleven games of the 07-08 season have been, it's still the best twelve game stretch in team history (counting the last game last year, of course). Complacency will be the death of me, I guess.

Prediction: Phoenix donates two points to Anaheim's playoff drive yet again; Ducks 5, Coyotes 2. Goals by King, Wirtanen, Perry, Hnidy, and an ill-advised PPG by Pahlsson.

Go Ducks.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The London Effect: Putting the “UK” back in “SUCK”

Well, it’s been a combined 10 games played since the Ducks and Kings split games in London, and of course results have been less than stellar: combined only two of those games have resulted in BoC wins, and both those wins came midway through the third period. Combined, the teams have been outscored 11-8 in the first period, 19-13 in the second period, and 19-14 in the third.


Now of course each of these teams has some issues outside of the London travel: the Ducks have been playing with an injury-compromised roster since day one, and the Kings are still trying to figure out how to work with their new lineup, from the net on out. But still, I think it’s clear that there is more going on here than bad rosters—between the shortened training camps and the intercontinental travel, King and Duck results have been adversely affected by the bizarre start to the season.

As things continue to settle, I think we’ll get a better idea of what we can blame on London and what we can blame on actual roster deficiency, but I think the warning is clear. Next year the NHL has announced opening the season in Prague—so far the Lightning, Penguins, and Senators have been mentioned as possible ambassadors. If I’m any of those teams, I’d take a hard look at how the Ducks and Kings struggled after their returns to North America; so far the evidence shows that starting overseas is a huge early hurdle to overcome, especially for teams coming in with roster issues.
-----------------------------

Interesting stat from last night’s game: The Ducks scored a 6-on-5, a 5-on-3, a 5-on-4, a 4-on-4, a 4-on-5, and a 4-on-6 goal. Six different types of goals; none of them your basic 5-on-5. Of course, as the Chief points out, the refs had a field day yesterday: 5 hooks, 5 trips, 4 holds, 3 slashes, 3 unsportsmanlike conducts, and 1 each of crosschecking, elbowing, boarding, and interference (plus a delayed penalty that never got called). At this point, I’m hungry enough for the two points that I won’t complain too much about refereeing, but I don’t find it exciting or compelling when a 60 minute game is reduced to only 25 minutes of 5-on-5.

The Ducks’ power play is pretty intriguing right now, though, especially with the depleted roster. In the last two games, the PP has gone 2-for-19 in nearly 29 minutes of PP time. While that may not impress anyone, I actually think it’s been a decent number for the Ducks when considering who’s been playing on their second unit. Over the last two games, Rob Niedermayer has played 10:02 and Mark Mowers has played 9:46 of power play time, predictably with no goals scored. To compare, last year in 82 games with the Ducks Rob Niedermayer totaled 15:04 of power play time and in 78 games with the Bruins Mark Mowers totaled 15:40 of power play time. In that ice time, they combined for one power play assist. I really have no idea why they are meriting the ice time lately (other than I guess there’s no good candidates to fill the forward minutes), but it seems like Carlyle is comfortable throwing away the man-advantage time.

The real boost, though, has been on the other end of special teams with the return of Sammy Pahlsson and his fabulous PK. In three games since his return, Sammy has played nearly 13 ½ minutes of shorthanded time, in which the Ducks have scored two goals-for and allowed zero goals-against, including Pahlsson’s game-winning shortie last night. Overall this year, the Ducks have killed penalties at a 73.5% clip without Sammy in the lineup and a 93.8% with Sammy. While the London Effect certainly affects this discrepancy somewhat, the fact remains:

Sammy is god.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

Well, my world is officially crashing apart.

Ducks forward Samuel Pahlsson will miss 3 to 5 weeks with a sports hernia, Anaheim Executive Vice President/General Manager Brian Burke told media Thursday.

"Sammy went through abdominal pain throughout the playoffs, but the recommendation was rest....We anticipate if he misses any regular season time, it will not be a lot."


Pahlsson hasn't missed a game since 2003, playing in 275 straight regular season games and 58 straight playoff games, plus some international play to boot.

Now regular or even passing readers know my fascination with Pahlsson, but personal grieving aside, this whole situation is starting to look awfully fishy. For various reasons, some key players from the SC Finals are looking to miss the start of the season (which coincidentally starts with a pair of transatlantic flights):

  • Sammy Pahlsson, Selke finalist and shut-down center, hernia surgery

  • J.S. Giguere, cup-winning goaltender, hernia surgery (same surgeon)

  • Scott Niedermayer, Conn Smythe winner and Norris finalist, contemplating retirement

  • Teemu Selanne, scoring leader and top-line winger, contemplating retirement

  • Dustin Penner, high-scoring rookie, priced himself out of town

  • Chris Phillips, cup-winning-goal scorer, turns out he wasn't on our team in the first place
Maybe I'm being too skeptical here, but that seems like a lot of players conveniently finding themselves unavailable for England. But don't worry, Brits! So far as I know, all the main attractions are slated to go.

Anyways, get well soon, Sammy. Prediction: Pahlsson 1, hernia 0.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Sammy Pahlsson, you're my hero!

It’s no big secret that since well before this blog began, Sammy Pahlsson has been my favorite player. He was the first player featured in Meet Your Mighty Ducks, Part 1 (whatever happened to that series?), he was my dream centerman in If I were an NHL Player, he is the subject of my famous man-crush poem, and I’ve picked him to score a goal in every gameday prediction. But a strange thing has happened—slowly but surely Sammy has turned from a personal cult hero into a recognized playoff hero.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. To get a better sense of the scope of this heroism, I’ve taken the liberty of splitting the season into four different segments, with a fifth segment representing the playoffs. Each segment represents 20 or 21 games, and I’ve included winning percentage and power play results in the table.

Segment No.

RecordWin Pct.PPG forPPG against

1: 1 – 20

13-2-5

.775

23/113

13/102

2: 21 – 41

15-5-1

.738

24/98

19/111

3: 42 – 61

7-9-4

.450

18/97

18/101

4: 62 – 82

13-4-4

.714

24/92

11/94

5: 83 – 103

16-4-1

.786

16/105

16/121


In all segments except #3 the Ducks were a dominant team, and in segments 1 and 4 a lot of credit goes to special teams domination. In the playoffs, however, you can see that power-play scoring was a wash—it didn’t carry the team to playoff success. Instead, segment 5 was about winning through even-strength play.

Now when it comes to 5-on-5 hockey, Randy Carlyle was fairly strict in his mostly-three-line approach. Each line served a specific purpose, and each line generally saw the same type of opposition. For purposes of this exercise I am really going to look at the three centermen, but they really are just to demonstrate the results for each forward line.
  • Andy McDonald (C. Kunitz, T. Selanne)—Andy Mac was the #1 offensive line for the Ducks, and was fairly assured to see the best defenders from the opposing team. As such, Andy’s defensive responsibilities weren’t too strenuous—he generally was in a position to outscore his opponents.

  • Ryan Getzlaf (D. Penner, C. Perry)—Getzlaf centered the second scoring line, a pretty favorable spot to be in—secondary defenders had to put up with the size and skill of the kid line. Considering his soft minutes, he too was in a position to outscore his opponents.

  • Sammy Pahlsson (T. Moen, R. Niedermayer)—Pahlsson had the defensive role against the opposition’s best scoring line. He played the team’s murderer’s minutes—the icetime in which the Ducks could expect to be outscored. His job was to limit the bleeding, and contribute when he could.
These centers make for nice study subjects also in that none of them missed a game all year. In fact, that is true for 8 of the Ducks’ top 9 forwards—if you’re looking for a theory why the Ducks won, there’s a start. Anyway, here’s their 5-on-5 results in each of the five segments—goals for and against while these centers were on the ice.
5-on-5 GF and GA Totals
20-game segments

(Click image to enlarge)

I guess the first takeaway is that there’s plenty of ways to win. In Segments #1 and #4, the Ducks won a lot on Getzlaf’s results as well as a strong power play. In #2, the McDonald line really powers things. In #3 (the injury segment), we can see crummy results across the board. But really, look at the green bars: it’s really amazing how Pahlsson explodes come playoff time.

Here’s how his season rates and postseason rates compare, looking at goals for and against per 60 minutes. Bear in mind that the results in the regular season column earned Pahlsson a nomination for the Selke trophy.

Reg. SeasonPlayoffsDifference

EV minutes/gm

12:43

14:09

1:26

EV PLUS/hr

+2.01

+3.43

+1.42

EV MINUS/hr

-2.24

-1.62

+0.62

EV DIF/hr

-0.23

+1.82

+2.05

PK minutes/gm

4:29

5:06

0:37

PK PLUS/hr

+0.00

+0.56

+0.56

PK MINUS/hr

-6.21

-3.92

+2.29

PK DIF/hr

-6.21

-3.36

+2.85


In the playoffs, Pahlsson’s line was on the ice for more 5-on-5 goals-for than McDonald’s line or Getzlaf’s line, all while shadowing Gaborik / Sedin / Zetterberg / Alfredsson. Sammy’s line was also on the ice for 8 of Anaheim’s 16 game-winning goals, including 7 of its last 10. Now I’ve stated before that I’m not overly concerned about whether or not Sammy ended up winning a Selke or Smythe trophy, but I do think it should be recognized how strong his postseason contribution was—it blows away his supposedly-strong regular season.

And that really is really what made this cup win so especially sweet for me—not only does my franchise’s dream come unbelievably true, but as a bonus my longtime favorite, once-cult hero plays like a fucking superstar to make it happen.

And it's not just this past postseason, either. He's played a big part in the '03 SCF run, the '06 WCF run, and now the '07 Cup win. Only he and Rob Niedermayer played in all 58 of those playoff games, and only Sammy played in all 246 regular season games between them too. And picked up a Swedish Elite Gold, a World Championship Gold, and an Olympic Gold along the way.

C'mon, Ducks fans, say it with me. Sammy is god.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Sammy and Stanley, and other links

Some lazy Friday links for you:

First off, today is one of the days I've been looking forward to all summer: Sleek's favorite Sammy Pahlsson's day with the Stanley Cup (courtesy of the HHOF). Pictured to the right is Sammy at his summer home in Sweden, in front of a sign that commemorates his career achievements:

  • Swedish League Gold (2005)


  • World Championships Gold (2006)


  • Olympic Gold (2006)


  • Stanley Cup (2007)
Watch out, Scott Niedermayer. Sammy's also building up quite the resumé about winning championships at every level.
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While I'm lazy-linking, I also have been procrastinating on blog promotion a bit: there's another new Ducks blog to highlight: The Flying V. New blogger Citizen Saint is the third new addition this summer (along with Varius and David) and may need a little constructive criticism—like a little spell checking on his "Player of ther Week"—but even so, he's got some unique content to check out, and is on the lookout for another contributor. Check it out, and as always, welcome aboard the ever-expanding Duck-blogosphere!
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Lastly, this may have gone under the summer-doldrums radar, but superblogger Jes Gölbez put together the first of what may be a summerlong series: a blogger opinion poll that includes such BoC heavyweights as PJ Swenson, Mike Chen, and myself. Check out poll question #1: What was the worst free agent signing of the NHL off-season?

From the looks of things, the popular answer was Philadelphia's monster-contract for Daniel Briere (including Chen and Sleek's votes), but PJ instead had some gloom-and-doom predictions for the Ducks' signing of a washed-up Todd Bertuzzi. Normally, I'd just shrug that off as petty cup envy, but then again, PJ did make a strong prediction last summer that has already come true:
"I believe I can accurately sum up the crux of this Hockey News issue and this blog post as a firm challenge directed by California at the province of Alberta. We Californians may not know what a province is, we may not paint ourselves blue and red and hang from streetlights in Mexican wrestling masks after a single playoff win, but we can guarantee that the Stanley Cup will be visiting here before stepping foot on Albertan soil again."
Glad the Ducks could help you make that threat a reality, PJ.