The 16-Game Sniff Test: How do the Sharks measure up?

As the Sharks have racked up points to start this season, I've had my attention fixed on where they'd sit after the sixteen game mark. Why sixteen games, you ask? For one, it does represent the first 20% of the season, but more importantly, it's where I mentally set the bar two years ago when the Ducks finally suffered a regulation loss in Game 17.

This originally was going to be a comparison of just the 06-07 Ducks and the 08-09 Sharks, but since I started mulling the idea I've been reminded that it's not just the Ducks that started their season on fire en route to a Stanley Cup. Here's a look at the last four cup winners have performed in their (mostly) first sixteen games, with the Sharks thrown in for comparison. In the right-hand column I have included each team's record through 60 minutes -- probably more indicative of projected postseason play.

Overall Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning*	11-2-2-1, 25 pts 0.781	47 – 29 = 18 2.94 – 1.81 = 1.13	14 / 78 17.9%	7 / 64 89.1%	10-2-4, 24 pts 0.750
05-06 Hurricanes**	12-2-1, 25 pts 0.833	59 – 38 = 21 3.93 – 2.53 = 1.40	21 / 96 21.9%	15 / 81 81.5%	10-2-3, 23 pts 0.767
06-07 Ducks	12-0-4, 28 pts 0.875	57 – 32 = 25 3.56 – 2.00 = 1.56	18 / 86 20.9%	10 / 92 89.1%	9-0-7, 25 pts 0.781
07-08 Red Wings	13-2-1, 27 pts 0.844	54 – 33 = 21 3.38 – 2.06 = 1.31	18 / 77 23.4%	10 / 85 88.2%	11-2-3, 25 pts 0.781
08-09 Sharks	13-3-0, 26 pts 0.813	52 – 38 = 14 3.25 – 2.38 = 0.88	13 / 80 16.3%	9 / 61 85.2%	10-3-3, 23 pts 0.719

* Remember when standings used to have four columns? For those of us who need reminding (I sure did!), the Lightning had 2 ties and 1 overtime loss in their first 16.
** I gave the Hurricanes a break and only showed their first 15 games. In Game 16, the Atlanta Thrashers smoked the 'Canes 9-0 in Raleigh and threw off all the statistics. Mentally add it if you must.

First off, I want to caution reading too much into these comparisons: sixteen games guarantees absolutely nothing except a leg up on a playoff position, and there's no real need for the Sharks to outperform any of these prior cup winners -- San Jose won't be facing these lineups this year.

Secondly, I want to emphasize more about comparisons with the Ducks and Red Wings, and less about the Lightning and Hurricanes. I included the Southeast winners because they did reinforce the pattern, but their Cup Finals were a bit unique -- meeting a bottom seed in the west and requiring a seventh game at home to seize their prize. No offense, but the Ducks and Wings represent teams that cruised to victory over more traditional Finals opponents, and their regular seasons were more similar to today's NHL.

Thirdly, we should always keep in mind sample size -- sixteen games is meaningful, but stats still can certainly be affected by an outlier game. With that in mind, here's the home and road splits, which represent even fewer games :)
Home Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	8-1-1-1, 18 pts 0.818	37 – 20 = 17 3.36 – 1.82 = 1.55	11 / 62 17.7%	5 / 47 89.4%	7-1-3, 17 pts 0.773
05-06 Hurricanes	7-0-0, 14 pts 1.000	30 – 18 = 12 4.29 – 2.57 = 1.71	10 / 48 20.8%	9 / 43 79.1%	5-0-2, 12 pts 0.857
06-07 Ducks	7-0-3, 17 pts 0.850	37 – 22 = 15 3.70 – 2.20 = 1.50	13 / 59 22.0%	7 / 58 87.9%	6-0-4, 16 pts 0.800
07-08 Red Wings	7-1-0, 14 pts 0.875	26 – 15 = 11 3.25 – 1.88 = 1.38	10 / 43 23.3%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-1-2, 12 pts 0.750
08-09 Sharks	9-0-0, 18 pts 1.000	32 – 17 = 15 3.56 – 1.89 = 1.67	6 / 47 12.8%	4 / 31 87.1%	7-0-2, 16 pts 0.889

Road Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	3-1-1-0, 7 pts 0.700	10 – 9 = 1 2.00 – 1.80 = 0.20	3 / 16 18.8%	2 / 17 88.2%	3-1-1, 7 pts 0.700
05-06 Hurricanes	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688	29 – 20 = 9 3.63 – 2.50 = 1.13	11 / 48 22.9%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688
06-07 Ducks	5-0-1, 11 pts 0.917	20 – 10 = 10 3.33 – 1.67 = 1.67	5 / 27 18.5%	3 / 34 91.2%	3-0-3, 9 pts 0.750
07-08 Red Wings	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813	28 – 18 = 10 3.50 – 2.25 = 1.25	8 / 34 23.5%	4 / 47 91.5%	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813
08-09 Sharks	4-3-0, 8 pts 0.571	20 – 21 = -1 2.86 – 3.00 = -0.14	7 / 33 21.2%	5 / 30 83.3%	3-3-1, 7 pts 0.500

Takeaways: If the sixteen-game sniff test bears out, the Sharks are certainly keeping pace with Cup darlings from years past. Their goal-differential and special teams seem a little lower than the winners' trend, but it's certainly not an alarming difference.

One thing I didn't include on these tables was shot differential -- on average, the Sharks outshoot their opponents by a margin of 37 - 25, which is a whopping difference. Only last year's Red Wings on this list were able to match that for their first 16 games (34.5 - 22.4); the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were all only slightly ahead of their opponents in that regard. This is one reason I'm not too critical of the goal-differential and special teams for the Sharks; it seems like it's more a matter of luck than anything.

If you're looking for a spot of potential mediocrity, though, it might be in the Sharks' road record, which is only .500 through regulation (again, small sample size). Still, winning on the road is one thing that the other Cup winners did very well in their season starts, and that ability served them well enough in the postseason. I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point, Sharks fans, but it's something to pay attention to as the season continues along.

From the Ducks' point of view, there is one other key difference to note about the 06-07 Ducks' start and the 08-09 Sharks: the chasers. Even with the Ducks starting 12-0-4, they barely had any divisonal lead to speak of -- the Dallas Stars at that point were 12-4-0 and the Sharks were 12-5-0. It was an incredible start by all three Pacific teams. This year, the Sharks are being followed by the Ducks (2 games above .500) and the Coyotes (1 game above .500), and the immediate threat of being caught is enormously lessened.

I'm not crowning any champions today, and I'm not ruling out any team from next spring's Cup -- by the time the playoffs roll around, I'll care much more about how the last 80% of the season went than the first 20%, but I had the numbers fairly handy and I thought I'd show the comparison stats.


Question for readers: Why does this pattern exist? Does a fast start give a team any particular edge coming out of a long season, or is it just the case that excellent teams tend to have good starts and tend to win Cups? Also, seeing the comparison, what likelihood would you give these Sharks of becoming champions this coming spring? If you have any observations or theories you want to add (or have any questions about the underlying numbers), feel free to throw them in the comments.

A Sharks/Lightning Prediction

I'm not going to predict who's going to win this game, but just as a side note -- I guaran-damn-tee you that Steven Stamkos will get his first NHL point tonight against the Sharks.

Why? It's not the news that he's been bumped to the first power play unit or that coach Barry Mullet wants to expand his ice time. It's because the Sharks have consistently wanted to dabble in the history books by being the team that other teams hit milestones against.

You want specifics? Um, well, much of my brain is still recovering from my friend's Halloween party last night (where I dressed as Robert Smith from The Cure during the era where he wore hockey jerseys; my outfit was complemented by a knock-off Vancouver Canucks jersey with the old orange/red/white skate logo) but I know every time it's announced on a broadcast, I slap my forehead and go, "Not again."

If my coffee kicks in before game time, I'll post some specific memories.

But just sayin'. That's my not-so-bold prediction for today.

Tonight on the History Channel: The Colonial Lockout

Happy Fourth, everyone! Stay safe and constitutional!

Oh, and here's something for our Canadian/non-patriot readers to talk about:

In return for the 31 year old veteran defenseman (Dan Boyle), its believed Tampa will receive a package that will include 23 old defenseman Matt Carle, a 1st round pick, a prospect and a 4th round pick.

Sources say defenseman Brad Lukowich is also part of the deal going to San Jose.

Dan Boyle on the radar

No Brian Campbell? No Wade Redden? No problem--maybe. Doug Wilson did say to look toward the trade market, and here's news that the Tampa Bay Lightning have gone 180 degrees from yesterday and now asked Dan Boyle to waive his no-trade clause.

Who's the front-runner according to TSN?

However, Boyle has not agreed to waive and wants sufficient time to assess his options and where he believes his best fit is.

Sources say three teams remain in pursuit of Boyle with the San Jose Sharks believed to be the frontrunner and considered Tampa's first choice.

If Boyle consents, there is a possibility the trade goes down today and Lightning management is said to be pushing for that.

We'll see what happens. If the deal goes through, it will be for someone who doesn't make much money as the Bolts are pushing the cap. I'm thinking it will be Marc-Edouard Vlasic in return as Matt Carle has a big contract and Christian Ehrhoff is an RFA looking for a raise. Perhaps Kyle McLaren will be thrown in as well, as Tampa is looking to get some help in terms of stay-at-home defensemen with the hopes that Paul Ranger grows into Boyle's role.

Don't miss this wildly probable train wreck.

After reading all about the loose cannon, Mark Cuban/Dan Snyder-like possibilities for Len Barrie and the other new Tampa Bay owners, this thing is starting to smell like Washington Redskins.

• Obviously, there’s the celebrity coach.

It’s hard to judge Barry Melrose with anything but suspicion. He made it as far as the NHL Finals as a coach, but he did have old 9-9 to thank for that. Eventually, he drifted off into ESPN anchorland, without a suitor for more than a decade.
Even if he was a good coach, what are the chances he’ll catch up immediately? Sure, he’s around the game, but now he has to command respect from Michael Jordan, of Hockey.

Here’s the “great” situation Barry is headed into:

• They already have the eccentric celebrity – new money owner, one of the first of its kind in the NHL. The Lightning feature neo Cuban.

• Vincent Lecavalier isn’t the Michael Jordan of hockey, but he could be the Lebron James. He’s a young phenom drafted to a semi-embarrassing team (Cavaliers/Lightning) who will always be rumored to leave for their league’s Mecca (New York/Toronto).

• Second painful Lecavalier fact: lifetime contracts are doomed. Just look at the always-credible WWF. Bret Hart signs a lifetime contract.A year later he’s screwed out of his championship in front of his country which somehow convinces him to break televisions and give a multi-millionaire a black eye.
  
  

Every lifetime contract is a disaster. Right, Hitman?

This could very well happen again, only this time it would be real. But the Lightning will probably ruin the fun by locking him up to some outlandish (but only 5-year) contract. Fun killers.

• Steve Stamkos might be joining a dysfunctional hockey family. Sure, he’s going to be rich in four years. And he’s in Florida, which isn’t a bad place for a 19-year-old to be.

So I guess I can’t feel sorry for him. Still, I wouldn’t blame the kid for pulling a Lindros/Eli Manning.

• Rick Tocchet. Seriously? If he can get another job, then Marc Crawford shouldn’t sweat it too much.

For these reasons, the Lightning will be one of the teams I’ll be following closely when I get NHL Center Ice.

The Waiting is the Hardest Part

You can sometimes forget that the Kings don't have the first pick in the draft, that Tampa Bay is actually getting Steve Stamkos and the Kings are picking 2nd. Tampa's pick has been such a certainty for so long that no one really acknowledges them and instead focuses on what the Kings are going to do. And for as certain as we are about what Tampa is going to do, we are completely baffled as to what the Kings are planning. First Drew Doughty is coming to the Kings because he's the next Ray Bourque and he grew up with a Kings telephone in his room; then they're drafting Zach Bogosian because he's the next Chris Pronger and has the edge the Kings need. They're in love with Nikita Filatov, then they're interviewing forwards projected to go in the 7-15 range. Dean Lombardi has laid the ground very well, and now Rich Hammond is saying that something will go down before the draft.

I personally think that it's all a smokescreen and the Kings are going to take Drew Doughty (it just makes sense), but I'm not sure. Is this usual in the days leading up to the draft? I feel like we usually have a pretty good idea of how the first few picks are going to go, but people genuinely seem confused about the Kings. I don't know, maybe I'm too close to the situation and I'm thinking too much about it. I hate not knowing. All I do know is that I want Friday to get here.

Kings-Sharks Gameday: Is This My Life?

LA Kings (gargle) vs. San Jose Sharks (49-21-10, 2nd in West)


7:30 PST, FSN West & Bay Area



and



Tampa Bay Lightning @ Washington Capitals


4:00 PST



I spent last night listening to the Hurricanes-Lightning game. I'm not proud of it. It's not quite bottom; I'm not on message boards arguing with Lightning fans over who deserves Stamkos more. But I'm getting close.






The Lightning lost last night, putting them at 71 points with 2 games left to play. The Kings sit at 69 points with 2 games left. Basically, Tampa needs to win 1 game and the Kings need to lose 1 for the Kings to clinch the bottom spot. The saddest thing is that I don't even care if the Kings get Stamkos that much. Sure, he's good, but he's not vital for Los Angeles. We have a franchise center already and defenseman is more of a need. I'm not saying that the Kings shouldn't draft Stamkos, I'm just saying that it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if we didn't get him.



So why do I want the Kings to finish last? I think I just want the Kings to be the worst team in the league because then they can't get worse. If they're last, then next year they'll be guaranteed to improve at least a little bit. Pathetic, I know, but it's the truth.

***

On the opposite side of things, San Jose still has a slim possibility of winning the President's Trophy. If they win their next 2 games (against LA and Dallas), and Detroit loses their next 2 games (against Columbus and Chicago) without going into overtime, then the Sharks will take the top seed in the West. That's kind of incredible if you consider the Sharks struggles early in the year and how much whining San Jose fans did during that time. Is Ron Wilson's job safe yet?

***

Jonathan Bernier looks to be headed to Manchester now that his season with the Lewiston MAINEiacs (ugh) is over. He'll split duties with Johnathan Quick until the Kings end this weekend, at which point Ersberg will head down to Manchester and Quick will go to Reading. Hopefully Bernier can follow in Carey Price's footsteps and do some damage in the AHL playoffs to set himself up nicely for next season.

In other Manchester news, Ted Purcell and Brian Boyle were both named to the AHL All-Rooke team. Also selected was Bobby Ryan, which of course makes him a better draft selection than Jack Johnson.



Prediction: Kings lose, 3-2. Goals by Willsie and Cammalleri. Joe Thornton gets lost in Alex Frolov's eyes and plows into a goal post, receiving a concussion that knocks him out of the playoffs. San Jose commits communal suicide.

Kings Gameday:This Is Complicated

LA Kings (31-40-7, 29th in NHL) vs. Dallas Stars (42-29-6, 5th in West)

1:00 PST, FSN West

and

Tampa Bay Lightning (30-38-9, 30th in NHL) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (42-30-6, 3rd in East)

4:30 PST

29.  LAK 69 Pts.  4 Games Remaining

30.  TBL 69 Pts.  5 Games Remaining

5th. DAL 90 Pts.  5 Games Remaining

6th. CAL 90 Pts.  5 Games Remaining

7th. COL 90 Pts.  5 Games Remaining

Prediction:  Kings win, 4-1.  Goals by Kopitar, Frolov, Cammalleri and Armstrong.  The Kings slide out of last place and the Stars drop into 7th in the West.  It doesn't really make me feel better.

Kings Gameday: Well Played, Tampa

LA Kings (#1 in 4th liners!) @ Anaheim Ducks (#1 in gay!)

7:00 PST, FSN Prime Ticket (mute button recommended)

Allan Muir at SI.com has responded to Michael Farber's article in a defense of looking ahead past the season.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay goaltender Mike Smith has come down with an "injury" and is out for the season. Taking his place? Something named Karri Ramo. Guy? Girl? I have no idea.

Tampa is sitting at 68 points with 6 games remaining. The Kings? 66 points with 6 remaining. The Kings have the tougher schedule (we play in the best division while the Lightning play in the worst), but our goaltending has been kind of good lately. Brian Burke appears to be attempting to sabotage the Kings by playing J.S. Aubin tonight; hopefully he'll be motivated when he plays his old team. Besides, with a back-to-back against Phoenix tomorrow night, I wouldn't be surprised if the Kings countered with Dan Cloutier tonight. C'mon, Jean-Sebastian, I heard Blake said you were a terrible actor in that Amp commercial!


If you're curious:

The Lightning schedule is: vs. Washington, vs. Carolina, vs. Atlanta, @ Carolina, @ Washington, @ Atlanta.

The Kings schedule is: @Anaheim, vs. Phoenix, vs. Dallas, @ San Jose, vs. San Jose, vs. Anaheim.

Like Earl said, I'll probably be talking more about Kings' draft picks and the Monarchs in the near future, because the idea of writing about a team with Jeff Giuliano AND John Zeiler on it gives me hives. Stay tuned!

Prediction: Kings lose in a tight one, 4,602-4,599. It's the best game Aubin has played all season.


Edit: Wait, a Tuesday night game that ended 2-1 at the arena of the worst team in the league wasn't a breathtaking sight? Surely LA fans all suck and in no way have a real hockey culture.

Double Edit: kms2 has a nice article at SportsHubLA about the Ponda Center. SportsHubLA is a pretty good site; they have one of the guys from TrueBlueLA writing about the Dodgers and the Kamentzky brothers (who also write for the LA Times) writing about a bunch of different stuff. I recommend it.*

(*They can put that on their site for a hefty fee if they choose.)

"Offseason" cartoons: The rest of the east

Well, I certainly have fallen behind on my offseason goal of cartooning new mascots for all the divisions, haven't I? Looking back, I haven't done one since August. Previous divisions include: Pacific, Northwest, Central, and the Atlantic.

Well, nothing like a hangover do-nothing Saturday to complete old tasks, eh?

First off, we have the Southeast Division:

We have the Tampa Bay Lightning Bolt, the Atlanta Thrash-Can, the Carolina Hurricane, the WASHINGTON CAPS, and the Florida Panthro.

And finally, the Northeast Division:
Here we see the Buffalo Sabre being confronted by the Boston Bruin, the Ottawa Senator Palpatine, the Toronto Maple Leaf, and of course the diminutive Le Hobbitant de Montréal.

Hope you enjoy 'em. Off to the couch for me!

BoC Gameday—Battle of the Thorntons Update

Anaheim Ducks (22-3-6, 1st in west) at Tampa Bay Lightning (14-13-2, t-9th in east)
Colorado Avalanche (13-13-2, 10th in west) at Los Angeles Kings (10-16-4, t-11th in west)
Nashville Predators (18-7-3, 3rd in west) at San Jose Sharks (20-9-0, 2nd in west)

Not to mention 11 other games today, featuring everyone except the Stanley Cup Finalists Edmonton Oilboys and Carolina Candy Canes.

Anyway, I guess I’d better feature this now, while gloating is still possible.

Battle of the Thorntons

Thornton	Team	GP	EV min	EV pts	EV pts/hr	+/-	PIM
Shawn	ANA	8	68:18	1-3-4	3.51	+7	26
Joe	SJS	29	414:51	6-6-12	1.74	-7	12
Scott	LAK	29	287:02	4-1-5	1.05	-9	19

Oops. They must have given that Hart trophy to the wrong Thornton.

Shawn, incidentally, has yet to be on the ice for an Anaheim goal-against.

[EDIT: I ran some Shawn Thornton numbers on last night's game. I think this is the first time Shawn has faced some tough minutes, as he played nearly 6 1/2 minutes against Ovechkin (about 57% of his ice time vs. AO). In fact, here's the elements of his Gordie Howe hat trick:

Goal: scored 31 seconds into his first shift. In his first game since Nov. 12.
Fight: initiated 35 seconds into his second shift. A decisive victory.
Assist: 22 seconds into his ninth shift, before the game was to the halfway point.

And the commonality? Omunchkin was on the ice for all of 'em. Sweet mother of mercy.]

Prediction: BoC 10, Challengers 5.