Parallelism: The post-lockout ascents of the Ducks and the Sharks

Nothing too new in this post, but I figured I'd make a quick chart to show the parallel paths between the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks since the lockout. I normally would have put this in tomorrow's game day post, but we've got other plans afoot (I know, wtf? Plans and BoC? Crazy).

I didn't label the x-axis, but it would number 1-82 three times across this chart, for the three seasons played since the lockout. As noted below the chart, the red line represents the difference in the three year cumulative points total; the blue line resets at zero at the start of each new regular season.

Red line = cumulative point total difference since the lockout
Blue line = resets at zero at the start of each season
There's not too much to take away from this chart, other than what Ducks fans and Sharks fans have known for a while -- it's been damn tough for one of these teams to pull too far away from the other. In 2005-06, both teams stayed neck-and-neck throughout the entire year, in 2006-07 the Ducks pulled ahead at the start of the season, and in 2007-08 the Sharks pulled ahead early. Even with those last two seasons, though, it's remarkable how much of the time the two teams have been within 8 standings points of each other (and there's never been more than 12 points separation).

At any rate, it's post-lockout Year Four starting tomorrow with a good ol' Ducks at Sharks matchup, and if you look at the cumulative points totals since the lockout, the Sharks have earned four more standings points than the Ducks have. It's remarkable that these teams have mirrored each other so closely on the standings board, especially since they seem to have been built around different strengths -- the Ducks have built primarily around their blueline while the Sharks have built primarily around their forwards.

It's tough to say what this coming year holds for both teams, and I doubt anything gets definitively answered in tomorrow's game, but it's one thing I'll certainly be paying attention to this year. The Ducks and Sharks finished one point apart in 05-06, three points apart in 06-07, and six points apart in 07-08; anyone care to speculate how many points will separate the two teams after game 82 this year?

More coming tomorrow. Go Ducks.

61 pts But Still Underachieving?

Can you call a team that has the 3rd most points in the league underachieving? After demoralizing losses at home to Dallas and Detroit, the Sharks ended the pre-Allstar break with 2 victories. Granted, the 2 wins were against Chicago and St.Louis, but that just tells the story of the season. Beat up on the lesser teams (good) and lose to the elite teams. (bad) Fans can complain all they want about what trades we need to make, what is wrong with Marleau, and should Ron Wilson be fired but look at the standings and there you see San Jose at the top of the West standings. You can still see signs of inconsistency but the Sharks must prove they can beat the elite in the league. If you watch Dallas, Detroit and Anaheim play the Sharks, all you see is domination and the Sharks not playing up to that level. By watching these games , one wonders how any of these teams ever loses a game. (In Detroit's case it seems to be true). With one month to go till the trade deadline, the playoff push starts next week.

Historical Reflection: What if there were a BoC back in the day?

You know, pretty much since the outset of this blog, there has been a pretty steady stream of taunts directed towards the L.A. Kings, and why not? The 2-year pattern we’ve observed involves the Kings missing the playoffs, the Sharks choking on a round 2 series lead, and the (Mighty) Ducks either losing in the conference finals or winning it all.

But amazingly enough, things were not always so—there was a time not that long ago where things were drastically different. To see what I’m talking about, take a look below at the Western Conference standings back on December 31st, 2005 (back when teams were ranked by standings points, then wins):

Rk	Team	GP	W – L – O	Pts	GF – GA
1	Detroit	38	26 – 9 – 3	55	144 – 100
2	Los Angeles	41	25 – 14 – 2	52	141 – 121
3	Calgary	39	23 – 12 – 4	50	103 – 97
4	Nashville	36	24 – 9 – 3	51	114 – 102
5	Dallas	37	24 – 12 – 1	49	121 – 99
6	Edmonton	40	22 – 14 – 4	48	130 – 125
7	Vancouver	38	21 – 12 – 5	47	128 – 117
8	Colorado	40	20 – 17 – 3	43	148 – 134
9	Phoenix	40	20 – 18 – 2	42	116 – 116
10	Minnesota	39	18 – 17 – 4	40	110 – 95
11	Anaheim	38	17 – 15 – 6	40	107 – 103
12	San Jose	37	16 – 16 – 5	37	113 – 114
13	Chicago	37	13 – 20 – 4	30	99 – 130
14	Columbus	39	12 – 26 – 1	25	79 – 138
15	St. Louis	36	9 – 22 – 5	23	95 – 140

That’s right. The Kings, second in the western conference, sticking out their tongues at the lowly Ducks and Sharks, who at that point were fighting to stay out of the Pacific basement. Can you imagine the fun-loving posts that Kings bloggers would be writing back then? (And really, this was not that long ago—the Kings were atop the BoC standings through March 19, 2006, less than two months before this blog's first post.)

It’s pretty astounding how much the tables have turned since then. In regular season games in 2006 and 2007, the Kings have gone a combined 44-62-17 (.427), getting outscored 325 – 425. Meanwhile, the Sharks have gone 79-37-11 (.665), outscoring opponents 408 – 318, and the Ducks have gone 74-32-20 (.667), outscoring opponents 398 – 317. Plus the Sharks have won 2 playoff series and the Ducks have won 6.

So I don’t know—part of me wants to apologize to the Kings bloggers—back then, there wasn’t a BoC blog forum for them to properly taunt us Sharks/Ducks fans. Then again, if they had, how much shit would they be eating right about now?

But I guess the real lesson here is one of caution: in this state of California especially, tables can turn awfully fast. Literally, in the span of a few months, bottom-feeders can become cup contenders, and division leaders can see their golden era get quickly flushed down the toilet.
Looking for a new logo, Los Angeles?

Ducks Gameday—Uh-oh, time to look at tie-breakers!

Dallas Stars (44-24-5, 7th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (43-19-12, 3rd in west)

Well, if the playoffs started today, this would be G1 of a first-round 2-vs-7 match-up.

But frighteningly enough, the playoffs do not start today, and the Ducks’ hold on that 2-seed isn’t looking as rosy as it once was; 3 teams are now within 3 points of Anaheim.

Before we take a look at those standings, though, let’s consider what happens if two teams end up tied at the end of the season. The tie-breakers, as I understand them, are (1) wins, (2) head-to-head record, and (3) goal-differential. This is bad news for the Ducks, who lead all western playoff-bound teams with 12 OT/SO losses. Basically that means that if the Ducks are tied with anyone, the other team will have more wins (to compensate for less “loser points”). It really kind of makes the H2H moot, which is a shame because I think the Ducks would have had the edge over the Canucks, Sharks, and Stars in that department.

Any way, here's the teams nipping at our tailfeathers, and how they stack up.

Anaheim (43-19-12) has 98 points and 8 games remaining (2 home, 6 road).
DAL, @DET, @CHI, @CBJ, @STL, SJS, @DAL, @CBJ

Vancouver (45-23-6) has 96 points and 8 games remaining (4 home, 4 road).
COL, @COL, @LAK, CGY, LAK, COL, @SJS, @PHX
San Jose (46-25-4) has 96 points and 7 games remaining (5 home, 2 road).
@CAR, LAK, PHX, LAK, @ANA, CGY, VAN
Minnesota (44-24-7) has 95 points and 7 games remaining (6 home, 1 road).
LAK, CGY, CGY, @COL, EDM, EDM, STL
Dallas (44-24-5) has 93 points and 9 games remaining (4 home, 5 road).
@ANA, @PHX, PHX, @DET, @NSH, STL, @CBJ, ANA, CHI

Note that all these teams already have more wins than the Ducks.

Now should Vancouver or Minnesota catch Anaheim, that wouldn’t be that tragic—it really means dropping to the 3-seed. But if San Jose or Dallas catches us, that’s a bigger swing; bye-bye home-ice advantage.

So that’s the situation as it sits, just one side note: instead of watching this crucial game, I will be gone for the weekend to NYC (damn, I really should get packing!), so I’ll just assume that my prediction comes true this time.

Prediction: Ducks 5, Stars 2. Goals by Matthew Perry, Ronald McDonald, Cerebral Pahlsson, Dean R. Kunitz, and Rosie O'Donnell.

Almost there, Jes.

Jes Gőlbez has been chastising GMs for not going to a three-point standings system.

Aw, c'mon Jes. Look at last night's scoreboard. If two-thirds of games get settled in the extra session, isn't that good enough? Call it the 2.666666666666666666666667-point standings system.

p.s. You gotta love it when your team sits idle while 20 other teams pick up standing points.

[Edit: Also check out David Johnson's take at HockeyAnalysis.com.]

Western Conference Standings and Games Remaining

Rk	Team	GP	W-L-O-PTS	Top Third	Mid Third	Bot Third
1	Nashville	49	34-12-3-71	8H 4R 12	4H 6R 10	5H 6R 11
2	Anaheim	50	30-12-8-68	6H 7R 13	4H 1R 5	6H 8R 14
3	Detroit	49	30-14-5-65	4H 4R 8	4H 3R 7	10H 8R 18
4	San Jose	48	32-16-0-64	5H 7R 12	4H 6R 10	6H 6R 12
5	Dallas	48	29-18-1-59	6H 7R 13	5H 2R 7	7H 7R 14
6	Calgary	47	26-17-4-56	4H 5R 9	8H 8R 16	5H 5R 10
6	Vancouver	48	27-19-2-56	4H 5R 9	8H 5R 13	6H 6R 12
8	Minnesota	49	25-20-4-54	2H 3R 5	9H 9R 18	5H 5R 10
9	Colorado	47	24-20-3-51	5H 5R 10	8H 9R 17	3H 5R 8
10	Edmonton	48	23-21-4-50	3H 6R 9	8H 7R 15	5H 5R 10
11	Phoenix	48	22-24-2-46	6H 7R 13	7H 6R 13	5H 3R 8
11	St. Louis	48	19-21-8-46	10H 4R 14	6H 6R 12	2H 6R 8
13	Columbus	48	18-25-5-41	9H 6R 15	3H 5R 8	6H 5R 11
13	Chicago	48	17-24-7-41	6H 8R 14	5H 5R 10	5H 5R 10
15	Los Angeles	50	16-28-6-38	4H 7R 11	4H 7R 11	4H 6R 10

This is a pretty traditional western conference standings, but I have added three columns at the end to indicate what's left in the rest of the schedule.

• Top Third indicates games remaining against the top 5 teams in the west or the top 5 teams in the east (NSH, ANA, DET, SJS, DAL, BUF, NJD, ATL, MTL, OTT).
• Mid Third indicates games remaining against the middle 5 teams from either conference (CGY, VAN, MIN, COL, EDM, CAR, TBL, NYR, TOR, PIT).
• Bot Third indicates games against the bottom 5 teams from either conference (PHX, STL, CBJ, CHI, LAK, BOS, NYI, WSH, FLA, PHI).

I don't know if it's that revealing, but note that Detroit and Minnesota in particular seem to have gotten through the toughest parts of their schedule, and there seems to be a lot of top games remaining between Nashville, Anaheim, San Jose, and Dallas. The Predators probably will drop somewhat, as they have already played most of their games against their "automatic two points" division sisters. Teams in the bottom five are pretty destined to stay there, it seems, as they have tougher competition ahead of them than the teams they are trying to catch.

I guess all I'm really saying is that I'll be somewhat surprised if Detroit doesn't end up with the one seed and if Minnesota doesn't end up in the top eight. That means that Colorado and/or Edmonton had better really step it up, because they may need to catch one of VAN/CGY/DAL, all of which have quite a strong headstart.