Kings Gameday: Look, a Duck

LA Kings (7-6-2) vs. Nashville Predators (8-7-1)

7:30 PST, FSN West



Prediction: Kings win, 4-3. I take a nap.

I Don't Know What These Mean

Ducks owner Henry Samueli pled guilty to doing rich white guy things and will have to pay a $12.2 million dollar fine. No prison, of course, because he's a rich white guy and this is Southern California. Anyway, does this mean the Ducks are going to move to Hamilton and Earl is going to have to become my butler? Probably!

In other news, Luc Robitaille is apparently not "lucky" in his friends, as he has been connected to William "Boots" Del Baggio III (there are 3 "Boots'" running around?) in some sort of loan investment thing. Who am I, Donald Trump, leave me alone. I guess you could say he was "knocking boots" with Boots. Luc'll be fine, it just kinda makes him look bad. The article also implies that AEG loaned Boots money in exchange for a possible move of the Predators to Kansas City some day. Does this mean the Predators are going to move to Nashville and Earl is going to have to become my butler? Probably!


Edit: And now Samueli has been suspended indefinitely by the league. Wow?

This is Sad

It's ridiculous how much holding Nashville is getting away with in their attempt to physically dominate the Red Wings. The best part? Datsyuk is still dominating. Maybe you should try having actual tough guys on your team, Nashville.

Vendetta 2: Rating Revenge in the West

Franchise All-Time Playoff Records

Rk	Franchise	Playoff Record	Win Pct.
1.	Edmonton	152 – 99 – 0	.606
2.	Anaheim	44 – 29 – 0	.603
3.	Montreal	393 – 266 – 8	.595
4.	NY Islanders	134 – 106 – 0	.558
5.	New Jersey / Colorado	117 – 96 – 0	.549

You have to be impressed with the Ducks' position here, especially considering the franchise lost 11 of its first 15 playoff games. Still, in amassing such a franchise record (the bulk of which has happened since 2003), a lot of toes get stepped on along the way.

Last year around this time, I put a post together called “V for Vendetta—Who’s the hungriest for roast Duck this spring?”, where I looked at four western conference playoff participants that had particularly vengeful incentive to eliminate the Ducks. Of those four, Minnesota and Detroit both got that sweet opportunity to eliminate Anaheim but failed, making them probably even more motivated this time around.

This year I’m just going to include all the possible WC opponents in this discussion, and try to rank their appetite to topple the postseason Ducks (aside from the usual incentive in dethroning the champs), with the main focus being on playoffs past. Some have stronger cases for revenge than others, but of all the choices, who has been hurt most by the Ducks in the past? Here's my ranking:

1. Minnesota Wild
Series losses to Anaheim: 2003 round 3 (4-0), 2007 Round 1 (4-1)

Poor, poor Wild. Twice in their franchise history they have made the playoffs; twice they have been eliminated by the Ducks. In 2003, they ran into J.S. Giguere at the crescendo of his Conn Smythe glory, who held the scrappy Wild to one goal over a four-game sweep. Unheard of. It took the Wild four years to recover and qualify again, only to go up against the hated Ducks a second time. This time, Giguere sat out (family issues), and backup Ilya Bryzgalov took over. The series was tight, but Anaheim won the first three games each by a single goal, and by then things were pretty much settled. Add in a suckerpunch by Brad May, and another Giguere win, and I think the Wild probably would enjoy a Duck execution more than anybody.

From the archives: Now I'm going to hell for sure, Remembering history so I'm not doomed to repeat it

2. Detroit Red Wings
Series Losses to Anaheim: 2003 Round 1 (4-0), 2007 Round 3 (4-2)

Of all the western teams in this year's playoffs, only Detroit has had the previous pleasure of eliminating Anaheim, though those series wins (both sweeps) came in the late 90s. The tables have turned, however, since Giguere singlehandedly swept the defending champions in the opening round of 2003, a harsh blow to a proud franchise. Last spring the Wings had a different sort of heartbreak; they led G5 in a tied series 1-0 leading into the final minute of regulation, and Scott Niedermayer's fluky goal and Teemu Selanne's fluky OT breakaway proved the difference. I think the Wild edge the Wings on this ranking because they have no other postseason successes to dwell upon, but the Wings are damn close. Anaheim likely cost them two Stanley Cups.

From the Archives: Off for the weekend, Obligatory gloat post, A history lesson

3. Calgary Flames
Series Losses to Anaheim: 2006 Round 1 (4-3)

Calgary was a story of a Flames opportunity lost, but also of a Ducks team coming together in front of a crazy Russian netminder. Calgary had built a 3-2 series lead largely on the suddenly human goaltending of J.S. Giguere, and midway through G5 Carlyle threw in Bryzgalov. Between that and rookie Frenchie Beauchemin pummeling posterchild Jarome Iginla, the Ducks got what they needed to squeak a G6 win before silencing the Red Mile in a dominant G7. I had trouble ranking 3-5 on this list, but I think that stunned silence puts Calgary on top of the only-eliminated-once group.

From the Archives: Avian flu indeed, Round-by-round Bryzgalove

4. Colorado Avalanche
Series Losses to the Ducks: 2006 Round 2 (4-0)

This series was a mini-Minny sweep; the Avs were dominated by the charging Ducks from the drop of the first puck, even playing without J.S. Giguere and rookie Corey Perry. Really, the momentum built up at the end of the Calgary series carried into G1 and G2 shutout victories, and Colorado was reeling after that. Their best effort came in G3, but Joffrey Lupul had his night of nights, scoring four goals including the OT winner. This marked the first time since the Avs had moved to Colorado that they had failed to take at least two games in a series.

From the Archives: Fun facts about sweeping the Avs

5. Dallas Stars
Series Losses to the Ducks: 2003 Round 2 (4-2)

I can't believe it's been five years since the last series that featured two Pacific Division teams, but it's likely this could be revisited in the first round this spring. Dallas was the top seed in the west that spring, and seemed quite determined to not suffer the same fate as Detroit. Their issue was that they were vulnerable to late-game heroics. In all six games of the series, the Stars were tied or had the lead with 2 minutes to go in regulation, yet still managed to lose four of them. All four Anaheim winning goals came on their last shot on net.

From the Archives: A look back at the '03 playoffs

6. Vancouver Canucks
Series Losses to the Ducks: 2007 Round 2 (4-1)

Vancouver might not have the heartbreaking story of contenders 1-5, but it's compelling nonetheless. The Canucks were riding their young goaltender in his first playoff year similar to how the Ducks had done in 2003, and found themselves down 2-1 in the series. They managed to score the first two goals in G4 in Vancouver, seemingly ready to even the series, but then managed to lose that lead. It was a crushing ending for the Canucks, as the series-winning OT goal occurred when Roberto Luongo got more interested in refereeing than netminding, and I'm sure Vancouver would like another chance to eliminate the Ducks and their Stompy Captain.

From the Archives: Welcome to SoCal, Roberto, Marine biologists discover a new disease

7. San Jose Sharks
No playoff history with Anaheim

It's amazing; Sharks fans might think they're gunning for us, but they're one of the few teams that can only base their hatred on regular season matchups. Well, I guess there's two things playoff-related that they can hate the Ducks for: (1) Pronger eliminated the Sharks in the 2nd round of '06, and (2) Two years in a row, SJ blew a 2nd round series lead and failed to get a matchup against Anaheim. This second one may be a source for Shark-anger; while other teams failed against the Ducks, San Jose blew it before even getting to that matchup.

8. Nashville Predators
No playoff history with Anaheim

I don't know why Nashville would hate the Ducks, unless they naturally associate the Ducks with their postseason nemesis, the Sharks, because of geography. If anything, Preds fans might enjoy the fact that the Ducks twice eliminated the Red Wings, but I'm just guessing.

Honorable mentions:
These teams won't be making an appearance in the western playoffs, but you bet they'd like to kill the Ducks as well.

Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers are the only team in the west to have a perfect series record against Anaheim, and yet their hatred is palpable, mostly having to do with off-ice confrontations (the Pronger trade and the Penner signing, and all the Burke-Lowe name-calling that ensued). The Oilers won't qualify this year, but they'll be solidly rooting for a Duck elimination this spring, and not just to protect their postseason winning percentage; they've also got a draft pick that depends on how Anaheim finishes.

Ottawa Senators: This seems pretty obvious to me. The Senators were thoroughly steamrolled in front of a multinational audience in last spring's cup finals, and would desperately like a do-over. It was a tough fall from glory for a team that had easily waltzed through the eastern playoffs, and even attending this year's regular season matchup, you could see the pent-up frustration.

Los Angeles Kings: When Anaheim lifted the cup, a part of every Kings fan's soul died. It has to be tough: 40 years of cup frustration, only to see the new BoC sibling make it look so darn easy, while the Kings sit around the NHL cellar. The Ducks and Kings have never qualified for the postseason in the same year, so it's tough to know where L.A. ranks on this list, but I think it's fair to say that they'd love a shot at eliminating Anaheim, probably more than teams that have faced the Ducks and lost. Irrelevance has its emotional cost as well.

So there you have it. It's a long list of teams with a lot of good recent-history reasons to want revenge on Anaheim, and my attempt to rank their previous playoff nightmares. What do you think? Is it worse to blow a series lead or to get swept? Who's had it the worst?

More likely than not, some team from the west is going to get the satisfaction of dethroning the Ducks; which opponent wants it the most? Let's hear your rankings in the comments.

Western Conference Regulation Record Grid

I've been meaning to put together a stats table to show all the potential western conference playoff participants, similar to the tables I built last year, and here it is. This table shows regulation records (the record at the end of 60 minutes) for the top ten teams in the west playing against the top ten teams in the west, all carrying some level of playoff aspiration. I've turned that regulation record into a winning percentage, and included GF and GA stats as well (note: GF and GA do include OT goals, mostly because I'm lazy). Basically, you can pick a team along the left column and follow it across to see how that team has fared against each of the nine potential future opponents, to see where a particular match-up seems favorable or not.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Some takeaway notes, briefly:

• From the Ducks' perspective, I'm not a huge believer on what this table tells us. A lot of the games used in creating this table were played without Niedermayer and Selanne at first, then Pronger and Perry later. It's tough to draw any hard conclusions on how a more complete team would have fared over the course of a season. Still, it's worth noting that the Ducks have the worst offense of any of these teams (against this opposition), and that even though the Ducks don't rate that well against their likely first round opponent in the Dallas Stars, it's still better than their regular season performance against Minnesota or Vancouver.



• As for winners from this table, it's hard not to like Detroit, San Jose, and Dallas, the three teams that show winning regulation records against the best of the west. Of the three, Detroit dominates the other two, though, and has strong records against nearly all other contenders (except Anaheim and perhaps Nashville). Perhaps Detroit's two main hopes should be that some other team eliminates the Ducks and somehow the Predators avoid finishing eighth, but generally, they've played this field very well.



• Among the teams still fighting for a spot, Calgary probably really wants the sixth seed the most, and Colorado wants to avoid falling to eighth the most. Vancouver appears to be in some trouble; even if they do qualify for the postseason they project to go up against a first round opponent that's dominated them during the regular season.

Anyway, I know that today's supposed to be all pranks and merriment, but I thought I'd throw out a statistical glance at the coming postseason. Read into it what you will (and I'll take any responses in the comments), but I think it offers a quick glance at what opponents each team finds more or less desirable for the prolonged fight to the cup finals. Once the standings gets a little more locked in, I'll delve a bit more into the emotional side; I'm quite new at this "defending" gig, and in that sense, it's a playoff year like I've never experienced before.

Until then, Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: This is Frustrating

LA Kings (egads!) @ Nashville Predators (35-28-8, 9th in West)

5:00 PST, 1150 AM

It gets really frustrating when the Frolov-Armstrong-Cammy is dominating out there (I think they've been our best line the past 2 weeks), and then Brown-Kopitar-O'Sullivan goes out there and has like 3 good scoring chances in one shift, and you think, "Hey, we're kicking ass, how could we possibly be in last pl-" and then you get the Ivanans-Ellis-Giuliano line and it feels like someone is kicking the idea of hockey in the groin. It offends me as a Kings fan, a fan of the NHL, and a fan of the sport of hockey in general that that line could possibly see one second of ice time. I know Dean Lombardi wants Brian Boyle, Ted Purcell, Lauri Tukonen, and Matt Moulson to come together as a group or some gay shit like that, but he should know that he's killing me.

You know what I actually said during the last game? "Man, I'd rather see John Zeiler out there." That's terrifying.

***

Jonathan Bernier won QMJHL defensive player of the week, going 2-1 with a 1.34 GAA and a .955 SV%. He's playing on a very young team in Lewiston, Maine (and people say he was upset that he got sent back to Juniors) but he's been playing excellent hockey lately. We haven't forgotten about you, Jonathan.

Another Junior player that's been playing excellent hockey is Bud Holloway. He's playing with Thomas Hickey on the Seattle Thunderbirds and has 77 points in 67 games. Holloway has the reputation for being a good all-around player but one who lacks the scoring touch needed to play in the NHL. If he can prove his new found ability isn't a fluke, I can see him becoming a solid contributor on 1 of the bottom 2 lines. Plus, if he makes it we can play him with Oscar Moller and Ted Purcell and have a "Guys with old man names" line. In fact, they can pair up with Tom (Hickey) and Jack (Johnson) on defense. We'd be George Carlin's favorite team!

***

It didn't go well the last 2 times the Kings played the Nashville Predators. First, Mike Cammalleri did something to his ribs and missed 19 games; then, the Kings lost 7-0. Hopefully they can reverse the bad karma and pull out a win tonight. The Kings aren't going to make the playoffs or anything, but if we can stand as a fan base and say to another: "Haha, you missed the playoffs because you didn't beat us," well, then I think we can chalk this season up as a success.

To get you psyched up, here's grade-A fuckhead Jordin Tootoo picking a fight with a Buffalo Sabre before getting blown up by Steve Bernier:



Haha.

Prediction: Kings lose, 5-4. The top 2 lines end up +4 while the bottom lines finish -5.

Ducks Gameday—A prehistoric suggestion

Anaheim Ducks (25-17-6, 3rd in west) at Nashville Predators (22-19-4, 12th in west)

It occurred to me after making the cartoon below that the saber-toothed fossil that inspired the Predator name and logo was found in a cave, not dug out from tar pits, but what am I, a prehistorian?

Hint: black = tar.
A few weeks ago, I called my dad out for having a crazy notion: could Scott Niedermayer win a half-season Hart? Well, he's happy to have pointed out to me that he's not alone in this lunacy, now there's an ESPN writer who's got his back (I hesitate to tell him what I think about ESPN's hockey expertise).

In the linked article, Damien Cox isolates Niedermayer in Anaheim and goalie Ty Conklin in Pittsburgh as two guys who have been inserted into lineups and turned mediocre results into top-tier results, and that's certainly commendable. But is either player really the most valuable on his own team? Even as these teams continue to accumulate wins, is Scott more valuable than Pronger, and is Conklin more valuable than Crosby? It's a tricky question because it's easy to confuse order with importance, but feel free to win me over in the comments. At any rate, the Duck / Penguin resurgence is the topic of my latest PuckToon at Fanhouse (link won't work until 11 am publish time).

Prediction: This is the last matchup of the season for these two teams, and the home squad has won the first three. Ducks buck the trend and win on the road tonight. Ducks 5, Preds 2. Goals by Perry x2 (happy now?), Bochenski, Carter, and Pronger. For some Nashville perspective, go see the Forechecker.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: This Game is Not Important

Los Angeles Kings (15-26-2, yarr) vs. Nashville Predators (20-19-2, 4th in Central)

7:30 PST, FSN West

The Kings have always had a little history with the Nashville Predators; it’s never just another game when they play. I don’t know why, maybe it just feels that way because Nashville's roster is filled with douche bags, but I remember both previous Nashville games perfectly.

The first was a 6-0 Kings thumping, with Nagy leading the way on a 3-point night. Mike Cammalleri also contributed with 2 goals on the year. That was the game where Derek Armstrong might a great play to get behind the Nashville defenseman and then made a no-look pass to Raitis Ivanans, who buried it. No, I’m not making that up; that actually happened. The Kings used the game as a springboard to a 3-game winning streak, and it seemed obvious that they had recovered from their early season slump.

Lubo, in a rare instant where he's not turning the puck over.

The second was a 4-3 Kings loss, thanks to Jason Arnott. This loss was the 7^th loss in their 8-game losing streak, and was definitely one of the most frustrating. (Getting your ass kicked by Jason Arnott? Really?) Patrick O’Sullivan had a great game, scoring 2 goals, and we saw a little vintage Lubo as he rifled a shot over Dan Ellis’ shoulder. Still, it was a game I felt the Kings should have won, but they didn’t because their incompetent. This was also the game where Mike Cammalleri got into a "fight" and injured his ribs. Way to go, jackass.

Giuliano has been watching Frolov play too much.

Now the Kings have lost 2 in a row right on the heels of a 3-game winning streak. Their last 2 games haven’t felt bad though, and the Kings could have won either one. I guess that’s better than just getting your ass kicked. The Predators will be without Shea Weber and Steve Sullivan and had their own modest 3-game winning streak snapped by those dastardly Ducks. It’s one of those games that doesn’t really matter in the larger scope of the NHL, but it’s still important for the Kings. They can get themselves up for a big game and play with anyone; it’s these little games that they can’t seem to win. Hopefully they will tonight.

Prediction: Kings win, 5-3. Goals by Brown (x2), Stuart, Nagy, and O’Sullivan. There’s at least 2 fights and Brown destroys someone.

Ducks Gameday—Who’s responsible for this improvement?

Nashville Predators (20-18-2, 12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (21-17-6, t-6th in west)

It’s certainly been a weird sort of year for the champion Ducks. If you wanted to overgeneralize this season, you could say the team started the year minus Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne, and suffered both offensively and defensively because of it.

Since Scott’s return, the team has certainly performed better standings-wise, but it’s clear where the improvement is kicking in—on the defensive end. In the 34 games prior to Scott’s return, the Ducks allowed 2.82 goals per game; in the 10 games since that number has dropped to 1.60. A lot of that can be attributed to the penalty kill, which allowed 41 PPGs in the first 34, and only 4 in the last 10.

However, the offensive end still remains stagnant; as a matter of fact the Ducks were scoring more goals before Niedermayer (2.38 goals per game) than since his return (2.20 goals per game). Does this mean that the team still needs a return out of Selanne (who per the OC Register has begun skating)?

On the surface, it seems to be so. I do want to caution, however, against attributing too much of improved results to the returning player. Yes, the Ducks are a better team with Niedermayer in the lineup, but if you look at the numbers, it’s not necessarily Niedermayer that seems to be driving the results.

The two tables below show the top-six defensemen before and after Niedermayer’s return. The tables show games played, even-strength (EV) minutes, EV “plus” events per 60 minutes, EV “minus” events per 60 minutes, the resulting EV goal-differential per 60 minutes, shorthanded minutes, and shorthanded goal-differential per 60 minutes.

Before Scott's return:

Player	GP	EV Min	EV Plus/hr	EV Minus/hr	EV Diff/hr	PK Min	PK Diff/hr
F. Beauchemin	34	659	+1.55	-2.55	-1.00	157	-10.32
C. Pronger	34	600	+1.80	-2.10	-0.30	175	-5.50
S. O’Donnell	34	467	+1.29	-1.80	-0.51	154	-6.23
K. Huskins	29	432	+3.06	-1.67	+1.39	60	-6.97
S. Hnidy	32	381	+1.73	-1.57	+0.16	38	-3.15
M. Schneider	19	328	+2.93	-1.65	+1.28	9	-6.65

Since Scott's return:

Player	GP	EV Min	EV Plus/hr	EV Minus/hr	EV Diff/hr	PK Min	PK Diff/hr
F. Beauchemin	10	179	+1.34	-2.35	-1.01	36	-5.07
C. Pronger	10	170	+2.11	-0.35	+1.76	42	-1.44
S. Niedermayer	10	168	+2.15	-2.87	-0.72	27	-4.42
M. Schneider	10	155	+1.94	-0.78	+1.16	12	+0.00
S. O’Donnell	10	132	+2.74	-0.46	+2.28	38	-1.56
K. Huskins	9	115	+2.61	-1.57	+1.05	4	-16.90

In terms of improvement, you have to be struck by the numbers associated with Chris Pronger and Sean O’Donnell. Both have improved by more than 2 goals-per-60 at even-strength differential and both have improved by more than 4 goals-per-60 while shorthanded. It’s a whopping improvement, more than I’d expect, especially since Scott Niedermayer isn’t really sharing minutes with either of them. And it’s not as if Scott’s stepped in and taken shutdown defensive role either; Pronger and O.D. are still facing the best the opposition has to offer.

I really don’t have a lot of answers as to what’s really changed about Pronger’s minutes, but the results are there for discussion. Is it just a matter of lockerroom accountability, or is Scott’s minute-sharing somehow making the shutdown job easier to accomplish? I’ll probably do some more of this segmented analysis going forward; one thing about this season is that it is very interesting to see how results change as the roster changes.

Prediction: In its last trip to California, Nashville lost all three games by a combined score of 12-1. Here’s hoping their west-coast affliction continues. Ducks 4, Preds 2. Goals by Pronger, Kunitz, Pahlsson, and Bertuzzi.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday Guest Post: (New Jersey) Devil's Dictionary, Part II

Los Angeles Kings (12-22-2, pbbbbt!) @ Nashville Predators (14-16-2, 14th in West... wow, what a bunch of losers)

5:00 PST, FSN West

(Here's part II. Once again, feel free to make up your own and put them in the comments.)

Masterson Trophy- A trophy awarded to a player who would have quit hockey if they were smart but for some reason kept playing.

“That's a real hockey play”- Meaning unknown.

Spearing- Attempted murder.

Slough-Footing- A joke penalty called by refs to check if anyone is paying attention.

Old-Time Hockey- Shitty hockey.

Selke Trophy- This player plays the wrong position.

Unsportsmanlike Conduct- The player used two or more of the following concepts in a single sentence - GENITALS/HOMOSEXUALITY/DEATH/MOTHER/FORNICATION.

Calder Trophy- This player’s career has peaked at age 20.

William Jennings Trophy- This award properly recognizes the luminous careers of men like Rick Wamsley, Bob Sauve, Rejean Lemelin, and Roman Cechmanek.

Douche Bag-

Inconsistent- European.

Finesse- European.

Soft- European.

Talented- European.

Streaky- European. (Specifically, Russian.)

Visor- A device worn to protect a player's eyes. Real hockey players eschew them, because eyes are for pussies.

Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy- Awarded to the NHL's top goal-scorer each season. Created in 1998, the trophy was renamed the "Jonathan Cheechoo Trophy" in 2006. It was returned to its original name the following season.

Shootout (SAN JOSE)- A loss.

Heavy Shot- Used in phrases like "it's not a hard shot, but it's heavy," this phrase can have no possible logical meaning, when you think about it. I mean, a puck has a set mass, and it has a certain speed when it is shot (how "hard" a shot is), and that's it. There aren't any other variables associated with a shot that could possibly be described with the word "heavy." "Not hard, but heavy" - WHAT THE HELL IS THAT SUPPOSED TO MEAN?

“Does the little things well”- This player does the big things poorly.

Gritty- Sucks, but is Canadian.

Franchise Player- The best player on a given team, this player’s relationship with a team’s fans will go through 4 stages:

1) Euphoria, where this player’s unlimited potential makes him untouchable in the eyes of the fans; any expressed thoughts of trading him will be met with scorn and attempted murder.

2) Optimism, where fans come to the realization that their franchise player is not the next Wayne Gretzky but should still easily become the cornerstone of consecutive Stanley Cups.

3) Disillusionment, the stage in which the fan’s unrealistic expectations become the fault of the franchise player.

4) Scorn, where fans revolt against their franchise player for his inability to fill the void in their worthless lives; he will soon be traded to another team for $.50 on the dollar. (Note: Boston fans, skip the 1^st 3 steps and go straight to this last one.)

Prediction: Nashville is leading through 2 periods but gets contracted before the 3rd; the Kings still manage to lose.

Ducks Gameday—Who would you move to make Niederroom?

Anaheim Ducks (14-12-4, t-6th in west) at Nashville Predators (13-11-2, 11th in west)

The second guest-art installment
in the spade-in-victorhell series.
I don't have much to say about last night's game against Chicago, except (a) the Ducks won despite being outshot 42 - 22, and (b) Andy McDonald and Todd Bertuzzi went back to being invisible again. I regularly told my roommate, "Man, I can't believe we're winning this game," but whatever--I'm happy enough with the two points that I won't raise a stink. I'm guessing the same strategy won't work nearly as well in Nashville, though.

NIEDERWATCH: Here's my un-scientific listing of who's most likely to be moved to make tag room for Scotty, a list that shuffles quite regularly and isn't based on much more than my mood. I've included each player's next-year-cap figure, per NHLSCAP.com.

1. Matthieu Schneider ($5.625 M): I think logically, Schneider's paid way too much for a third-highest-paid defenseman. Even with goals in each of his last two games, I think the only reason that Schneidermayer would stay is if Burke is dead-set on icing the best blueline in NHL history, or if he's determined that Scott won't play next year and wants to pro-actively address that. As a bonus, moving Schneider might make enough tag room to sign Corey Perry to an early extension (provided Perry is willing to stay in the $4 M range).

2. Todd Marchant ($2.518 M): Even though the Ducks are forward-thin and Marchant has proved his value and versatility (especially in the last playoffs), it is a lot of salary for a guy to anchor a fourth line. Moving Marchant might involve moving a draft pick as well, though we'll see how cagey Burke can be. I'd certainly miss "Stone Hands" Marchant, as he has the highest PS2-to-Actual talent ratio on the team, but I feel that a kid like Petteri Wirtanen could play the fourth-line center role responsibly enough in limited minutes.

3. Andy McDonald ($3.333 M): Andy Mac has certainly had it rough this young season, though the dropoff in linemate talent is astronomical between Teemu Selanne last year and Mark Mowers earlier this year. Still, I don't know if to my eyes he's lost any speed or ability; he just seems to be more effective when opponents have to focus on his wingers more. Burke had better be more in tune with Teemu's mindset than I am; if Selanne is coming back, then Andy Mac drops to the bottom of this list; he was our best forward in the cup finals.

4. Francois Beauchemin ($1.650 M): Frenchie is another enigma of sorts; his goals-against rates were much better back when Scotty was covering his back. He is certainly underpaid for the amount of minutes that he plays, and thus should be fairly easy to move (in fact, I would expect some return in a Frenchie trade). Still, we shouldn't forget Frenchie's impact on the '06 playoffs; his fist-fight with Iginla and shoulder-hit on Brunette were enormous factors in advancing past Calgary and Colorado.

5. Sean O'Donnell ($1.250 M): Probably O'Donnell should be higher on this list, but I'll tell you: I think O.D. has been a tremendous team-first guy on this roster. I mean, the guy was an unrestricted free agent defenseman in a zany marketplace who had just won the Stanley Cup, and he signed back on the team for a PAY CUT. That is pretty huge in my books, and I hope that fact isn't lost on Burke. You know exactly what you are going to get on the ice with O.D.--the safest play he's capable of--but there's always a role for that kind of guy.

6. Some combination of Travis Moen ($913 K), Shane Hnidy ($718 K), Kent Huskins ($625 K), Brad May ($600 K), or George Parros ($550 K): I think dollarwise, this means Moen plus another guy. Moen (or as I call him, "the Omen") has had rough counting numbers but is still contributing defensively on the Pahlsson line. Plus he was HUGE in the playoffs, t-2nd on the team in goals and t-1st on the team in game-winners. Hnidy has been better of late, though his first instinct always seems to be to grab a guy with his free hand. The other three have all been improvements on last year's versions. There seems to be some possibility here (all these guys seem replaceable enough), but I don't think it's going to happen--it adds to the trade complexity and starts removing too many parts of an already-thin roster.

7. Todd Bertuzzi ($4.000 M): I talk trash on Bertuzzi more than most Duck fans, but given Bert's salary, I don't think there's many GMs that will easily take the guy--he'll probably cost the EDM first-rounder to move, I'd guess. But I'm not sure I'm entirely pessimistic about keeping Bertuzzi. Sure he's a floater who needs limited puck exposure, but as we saw with Penner last year, there's a way that Bertuzzi can be played effectively--essentially he'll be as good as his linemates can make him. Bert will probably look really bad on a bad team but may look really good on a good one, and if this team does take a step forward, I'm willing to stay on the Bertuzzi bet a little while longer.

So that's my list, based on zero inside sources and just my gut feel. Two things to note: (a) Burke has made his trade-timeframe public, and will not be bargaining from a position of strength. As we've seen in the case of Ilya Bryzgalov, it doesn't seem to be the case that rival GMs are in any hurry to do Burke any favors. (b) Going for Burke, though, is the fact that there isn't any real need to get any return for whichever player gets moved. Scotty (with the possibility of some Teemu) is plenty of return already. It wouldn't even be that bad if a player got on the waiver train to Phoenix.

So, just for fun, if you were Burke, which player would you look to unload? Unleash your fantasy GM skills in the comments.

Prediction: I'm not that optimistic; I'm guessing Nashville carries a lot of the play today. Still, Ducks 3, Preds 2. Goals by Platt, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: This Blog Post is EXTREME

Los Angeles Kings (3-6, 4th in Pacific) vs. Nashville Predators (2-5, 5th in Central)

10:30 PST, FSN West


The Kings have a new website called LAKingsJunkie.com. It’s full of ATTITUDE and IN YOUR FACE ACTION and RANDOM CAPITALIZATION for some reason, but it does have my favorite part of any team website: player bios. I love these things because they’re always so random and ridiculous. (How else would I know that Dog Murray from Sweden owns his own company or that Ryan Getzlaf likes wake-boarding?) I’m going to start a continuing series wherein I read the bios and then decide if I like the player more or less. First up are Mike Cammalleri and Alexander Frolov.

X-TREME!!!

Mike Cammalleri

What I like: His favorite movie is Raging Bull, his favorite athlete is Scott Thornton, and his favorite action hero is Batman. (Why would he like Scott Thornton so much? Unless... maybe Thornton IS Batman!)

What I don’t like: His favorite book is Bringing Down the House. It could be the book about how 6 MIT graduates cheated Las Vegas, but I prefer to think that Mike Cammalleri really enjoys the novelization of the movie starring Queen Latifah and Steve Martin.

Overall: I like Mike Cammalleri more. He has a more intellectual side that you wouldn’t expect and he likes Scott Thornton. Everyone should like Scott Thornton. He rides bicycles!

RADICAL!!!

Alexander Frolov

What I like: He has a dog named Quattro (after the razor?), he enjoys chess, and his favorite holiday is New Year’s. (I just like this one because I like the idea of someone asking Frolov this question and then him honestly thinking about it before giving an answer.)

What I don’t like: His favorite actor is Anthony Hopkins (he’s really good and everything, but whose favorite actor is Anthony Hopkins?), his favorite athlete is Andre Agassi (Sampras rules!), and his favorite TV show is Entourage. Plus, the picture next to his information is not him, it's Blake. I'm blaming Frolov for this.

Overall: I like Alexander Frolov less. He kind of comes across as a douche bag, don’t you think? I mean, he likes Steven Seagal, he enjoys Gwen Stefani, he watches Entourage… he’s not a hockey player, he’s the guy with the popped collar on every college campus in America!

***

The Kings play the Nashville Predators today, and I can’t think of a team that’s more universally reviled than the Predators. Seriously, the Sharks hate them, the Stars hate them, the Red Wings hate them, I hate them, Hamilton hates them, their jersey designer hates them, even their potential owners seem to hate them. Now the Phoenix Coyotes can get in on the hate after Jordin Tootoo took 9,482 steps before blindsiding rookie Daniel Winnik. Craig Weller responded by unleashing a flying clothesline at Tootoo, who then proceeded to lie on the ice until everything settled down. (I am convinced that he lied there because he didn’t want to fight. I can not be dissuaded from this opinion.) Here’s the video, just in case you haven’t seen it:

There are a lot of opinions on the incident (Kelly Hrudey went nuts on TV and tried to make Tootoo walk the plank), but my favorite part of the whole thing was Tootoo’s comment after the game:

"There's always someone coming after me and there is a prime example of me not defending myself and not knowing someone was coming after me," Tootoo said. "It's unbelievable how hitting is part of the game and after a nice clean hit like that there has to be injury involved when you don't defend yourself."

Is it hard to elbow someone with tears in your eyes?

You can almost hear the sniffling, can’t you? Hmm… someone attacking someone when they were not in a position to defend themselves, where have I seen that before? Listen fuck, nobody likes you. You have no discernable skill besides a willingness to hurt people and the only reason guys like you are still in the league is because of the instigator rule. Plus, you had this and then cheated on it. If there’s one undeniable truth in this crazy little world, it’s that blonde chicks with big fake boobs are awesome. You’re lucky that all the men in the world haven’t held you down and then taken turns kicking you in your little Tootoo Train.

How dare you cheat on those boobs.

***

This is only tangentially related to the business of this blog, but since it deals with Los Angeles, I think it is okay: have you seen the ads by the city of Louisville? After realizing that they have no good qualities to attract people to their miserable little town, Louisville has decided to attack the good names of much better cities. Here’s the one attacking Los Angeles:

Louisville, are you trying to say that you are better than Los Angeles? Louisville. The one in Kentucky. With the baseball bats. Ha. Hehe. Teehee…. (Deep Breath)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Prediction: Kings, 4-2. Goals by Cammy, Nagy, Blake and Frolov.

Ducks Gameday—Poetic Justice for Bertuzzi

Nashville Predators (2-3-0, t-11th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (3-4-1, t-4th in west)

As usual a matchup with Minnesota produced more injuries. Todd Marchant is day-to-day with a bone bruise, and Todd Bertuzzi got put on the IR with a concussion.

Self-pity is for the weak, though. Poetry is for the strong.

Ode to Bertuzzi's Concussion

T his is a story of circular fate,
O f passion-turned-deadly and unbridled hate,
D umb ol’ Brad May put a price on a head,
D umb ol’ Bertuzzi nearly knocked Steve Moore dead.

B ut skip ahead forward a couple of years,
E ach of the thugs has resumed their careers,
R egrettably Burke kept May’s antics alive,
T o see him knock Johnsson right out of G5.
U pset Derek Boogaard saved up his bloodlust,
Z eroed in on Bertuzzi and got him concuss'd.
Z ip to the lesson—This Karma’s hardcore,
I t got Todd Bertuzzi to start feeling Moore.

Which Nashville team is going to show up tonight? The team that outscored its first two opponents by a combined 9-1 or the team that lost its next three by a combined score of 17-8? For some always solid Nashville perspective, visit the Forechecker.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Predators 2. Goals by Miller, Getzlaf x2, and Pahlsson.

Go Ducks.

The BoC non-believer

I'm really hung over from my brother's wedding last night, but not so much that I can't poke a little fun.

I'm not a huge guy on predictions (other than predicting goals from the stick of Pahlsson); probably the last playoff prediction I made was last summer, when I predicted Phoenix to make the conference finals. I know that picking winners, especially, in the west, is a crapshoot.

Still, gotta poke some fun at Mirtle, who previewed both BoC series (ANA-MIN, NSH-SJS), and went against the BoC teams and predicted 16 wins for Minnesota and 8 wins for Nashville.

Turns out he was only off by 15 and 7. Time to stop copying that monkey, Mirtle.

Sharks vs Nashville Predators Game 3 video

Here are a few photos and video clips from the Sharks 3-1 win over the Predators in game 3 at HP Pavilion yesterday. Nashville had a slight edge in play after the first period, and a one goal lead, but San Jose consistently pounded on the Predators defenseman with a heavy forecheck. It wore them down, and Milan Michalek, Ryane Clowe, and Patrick Marleau capitalized in the final 2 periods. Game 4 is on Wednesday.

Some playoff quick hits

Here's a few quick tidbits about the Stars game and a few other playoff related items:

• My, wasn't that 2-0 game 2 win pretty convincing? There were certainly a few close calls with goals, but it's not like that didn't happen to the Stars on Wednesday.

• JavaGeek made a good point about the Stars getting quantity over quality shots-wise, something I picked up on even in Game 2. That being said, it does need to be mentioned that 26-foot shots look a little bit more enticing when they come from the Stars' two high-scoring defensemen (Boucher and Zubov). Java still makes a good point, but there's no denying that the Stars are throwing more pucks at Luongo and most importantly are dominating puck possession.

• One of the underlying subplots of this Stars-Canucks series is the inspired play of Markus Naslund. I think it's a great move to set him up with the Cycle twins. He's certainly been one of 'Couver's most dangerous threats.

• Even with his noted playoff troubles, it's still shocking that Turco just got his first playoff shutout.

A few non-Stars related blurbs

• I love getting to see some of the more interesting series such as Pitt-Ott, but for the love of God, can someone televise the Sharks-Predators series? Granted, the NHL might want to distance itself from an increasingly violent mess, but I don't.

• At this rate, the Nashville Predators might become the most hated team in the NHL. And not just by NBC's advertisers.

• Maybe I shouldn't admit this, but I'm rooting for the Ducks against the Wild. The reason is simple: despite stories on ESPN.com, the Wild are still about as interesting as the majestic growth of grass. That's one series that everyone outside of the Min area wants to go a swift 4 games.

Anyway, I'm off to celebrate my birthday. If you want to get me something, I am looking for an X-Box 360. Just sayin'.

Sharks/Preds Game 2 thoughts

Update 11:40: Cheechoo participates in morning skate.

Some random thoughts going into game 2 tonight...

• I really hope the Sharks don't do any sort of stupid headhunting, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mark Bell tries to beat the crap out of Scott Hartnell. Still, I hope the Sharks try to send a "we're tough" message rather than "we're stupid" and the refs keep things under control. The last thing we need is Jordan Tootoo running Patrick Marleau or Joe Thornton in revenge.
• Even though Peter Forsberg only had one assist in game 1, he was still all over the ice. Forsberg and Alexander Radulov caught Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren flat-footed a few times, and they've really got to get their head up about that. Ditto with Paul Kariya.
  
• I'm just glad that Steve Sullivan is out indefinitely. Along with Teemu Selanne, Sullivan's one of the most consistent, most annoying Shark killers out there. Funny thing is I always liked him when he was with the Blackhawks.
• Mike Grier or Joe Pavelski? That's the question, and I think they both bring different things to the Joe Thornton line. Grier's a hard forechecker and will hustle back at 110% all the time, and that gives a little more offensive leeway to Thornton and Milan Michalek. Pavelski's got more of an offensive upside and drives the net well, but isn't nearly as beefy as Grier. I'm guessing that just to get his feet wet, Pavelski starts on the third line and Grier stays up front. Depending on how well Pavelski adjusts to the pace of the game, I'd start by giving him power play time and then ease him into the top line.
• Will the Predators stay disciplined? Barry Trotz knows that penalties killed his squad in game 1. Still, I don't think the Sharks will look as confused as they did in the second half of the game. Losing one of your best players can shake your focus, but I expect the Sharks to come out ready for this one. As for the Preds, the best thing the Sharks can do is to try and goad undisciplined players like Tootoo and Hartnell into more penalties without taking anything back in retaliation.
• Patrick Marleau said the best revenge for the Cheechoo hit is to shake the Predator players' hands after the Sharks win. Amen to that.
• Barry Trotz claiming that Hartnell's hit was completely clean is the biggest piece of crap since the FoxTrax puck. I'm betting that Trotz is just playing that up for the fan and media attention, though; it's not like he's going to stir the pot by admitting his player was wrong. He pisses off Sharks fans, makes Preds fans feel better, and gives the media a good quote while trying to divert attention from the actual player. The dude still looks like a mole, though.
  
• On a final note, I know Red Wing fans have been bitching about Hartnell for ages now. I hate to say that I agree with Red Wing fans, but there's a first time for everything.
  

Predators right wing Scott Hartnell takes out Jonathan Cheechoo with knee-on-knee hit

Nine minutes into the second period of the Sharks 5-4 double OT win over the Nashville Predators, right wing Scott Hartnell took out San Jose's leading scorer with a knee-on-knee hit, and an elbow to the head, on the same play.

Intentional? Of course not, just a hard working effort to skate through an opposing player, even after he no longer had the puck. Just like hitting a tennis ball. Intent to injure? Bleep no. His knee and face just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. The fact that no one in the NHL has been able to stop the Thornton-Cheechoo tandem the last month also has nothing to do with it.

The injury did shine a spotlight on a major question mark for the Sharks. San Jose has the depth to bring in quality players, with center Joe Pavelski and agitator Mark Smith in reserve, but the hit on Cheechoo seemed to shake off a lot of the confidence the Sharks spent the last month and a half building. They need Rivet and Guerin, and Brown/Grier to step in and provide leadership when they feel the momentum start to swing. That momentum carried San Jose out of the playoffs in 4 games against Edmonton last year.

More on the Cheechoo hit here.

Western Conference Power Play Efficiency Grid

Similar to my WC goal-differential grid, here is a PP efficiency grid, showing for the top 9 teams in the west how their PP percentage has done against specific western conference opponents. This time I did not bother splitting out Home vs. Road, but I did bother putting it into HTML (instead of a spreadsheet image), so I guess you win some and you lose some.

Running down across the left are teams on the power-play; read across to see how their PP does against the other western potential qualifiers. Running across the top are the penalty-killers; read down the column to see how different PP units have done against your squad.

	NSH PK	ANA PK	VAN PK	DET PK	MIN PK	SJS PK	DAL PK	CGY PK	COL PK	Total PK
NSH PP		2/21 9.5%	3/20 15.0%	6/32 18.8%	4/16 25.0%	3/21 14.3%	1/9 11.1%	4/19 21.1%	2/9 22.2%	25/147 17.0%
ANA PP	4/19 21.1%		4/25 16.0%	4/17 23.5%	3/20 15.0%	6/28 21.4%	5/33 15.2%	4/18 22.2%	3/20 15.0%	33/180 18.3%
VAN PP	0/15 0.0%	2/18 11.1%		4/25 16.0%	4/34 11.8%	2/12 16.7%	2/21 9.5%	7/42 16.7%	4/20 20.0%	25/187 13.4%
DET PP	6/26 23.1%	3/19 15.8%	2/28 7.1%		1/18 5.6%	4/18 22.2%	1/7 14.3%	3/18 16.7%	2/13 15.4%	22/147 15.0%
MIN PP	10/21 47.6%	3/24 12.5%	7/31 22.6%	0/11 0.0%		0/9 0.0%	1/14 7.1%	6/31 19.4%	5/28 17.9%	32/169 18.9%
SJS PP	5/21 23.8%	7/36 19.4%	1/15 6.7%	13/31 41.9%	1/18 5.6%		3/34 8.8%	4/18 22.2%	7/21 33.3%	41/194 21.1%
DAL PP	5/23 21.7%	4/31 12.9%	3/28 10.7%	4/15 26.7%	3/15 20.0%	5/28 17.9%		6/23 26.1%	5/19 26.3%	35/182 19.2%
CGY PP	1/9 11.1%	2/17 11.8%	5/46 10.9%	6/16 37.5%	4/26 15.4%	3/14 21.4%	2/22 9.1%		9/25 36.0%	32/175 18.3%
COL PP	0/15 0.0%	3/16 18.8%	6/25 24.0%	2/17 11.8%	3/28 10.7%	4/18 22.2%	7/24 29.2%	10/24 41.7%		35/167 21.0%
Total PP	31/149 20.8%	26/182 14.3%	31/218 14.2%	39/164 23.8%	23/175 13.1%	27/148 18.2%	22/164 13.4%	44/193 22.8%	37/155 23.9%	280/1548 18.1%

Anyone else surprised how badly Detroit measures on these metrics? They have the second-worst power play and the second-worst penalty kill of the bunch.