Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Brian Burke Week Part 1: Sleek defends three "bad" moves

Hey, everybody! Welcome to Burke Week, where I'll take a scattered look back on what I take to be Brian Burke's legacy in Anaheim. I do have a lot to say about the guy, and rather than cram it all into one post I thought I'd break it into semi-coherent parts throughout the week.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad. For better or worse, opposing fans love to criticize Brian Burke's management style, and at times, the desire to call out Burke for a "bad" move ignores a lot of important context. Burke's first few years, of course, are now left alone because the Ducks won a cup, but since then it seems that critics are all-too-ready to point out where Burke has made his supposed mistakes.

There's really two things to keep in mind when discussing some of these debatable moves, though: (1) Thanks to salary cap mechanics, it's always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to keep a championship team together. I hold little expectation that any cup-winning roster could or should be fully retained -- there's always got to be adaptation and prioritization after a team experiences success. (2) Behind every one of these moves is the decision to allow Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to semi-retire. I'll certainly talk more about this later, but basically if you disagree on giving players that freedom (and would rather Burke forced retirement on them), then probably you won't agree with the validity of these moves, but it is important to understand Burke's underlying motivation.

Lastly, I don't want to overstate things in this post -- I'm not saying that these moves were ideal, by any means. My main point is that they are more tolerable to me than people suggest -- I'm not angry with Burke for making them, at any rate.

1. Waiving Ilya Bryzgalov

Sleek's initial take: It seems absolutely amazing to me that a goaltender with the lowball salary and highball postseason success couldn't be traded in today's league, but I've had low expectations ever since the seemingly poor returns for Tomas Vokoun or Vesa Toskala last summer. As much as it might pain rival fans to admit it, I think the departure of Bryzgalov has very little to do with Scott and Teemu, and really has more to do with Bryzgalov trying to be a #1 and Hiller being promoted to the big leagues.

On paper this sounds horrible, because Breezy was definitely a proven playoff performer, given away to a divisional rival for free. And generally, I’m not in favor of losing assets for nothing. However, you also have to consider the Ducks were locked into J.S. Giguere for four years (including a no-movement clause), and had signed a promising netminder in Jonas Hiller as well. Not only was Breezy prevented from upward movement in the organization, but he was even in the youngster’s way, plus he was due for a raise the next summer. Burke claims that the move was done for Bryzgalov’s benefit, and it’s tough to disbelieve him on that statement, and for sure the goalie-trade market was thin (that’s the inherent irony in goalie salaries: they are no doubt the most important player on the ice, yet there are more than 60 players who could play in the NHL). So Burke ensured that Breezy gets picked up by a bottom team while publicly keeping his word to his netminder – there’s definitely payoff in being a “player first” GM like that, and while there was no trade return, you have to remember that Hiller cost the Ducks nothing either. It seems a relative wash to me, with some good PR on the side.

2. Trading Andy McDonald to St. Louis for Doug Weight

Sleek's initial take: Of course, it's sort of a mistake to look at this just as a McDonald-for-Weight trade, as context is huge for this deal. In return for trading away Andy Mac, the Ducks get Doug Weight, the right to play Scott Niedermayer, the right to keep Mathieu Schneider, and the possibility to sign Teemu Selanne. Even if DeadWeight turns out to be a bust, there's still a lot of trade return there.

Yes, this was salary-necessitated, and yes, I’d rather have Andy Mac than Doug Weight on my team any day. Still, this needs context more than anything. As my quote above suggests, it wasn’t just a one-for-one trade; Andy McDonald was traded for Doug Weight + the tag space to keep Mathieu Schneider + the room to welcome back Scott Niedermayer + the room to later sign Teemu Selanne. The salary side sucked, I guess, but the Ducks by the end of that season had more than $24 million tied into three defensemen plus a goalie – a more expensive team than they could have afforded for a full season. As for success, yeah, there was no Stanley Cup, but in the 48 games after the McDonald/Weight trade (Scotty's return), the Ducks dropped nearly a full goal-against-per-game, and played on a pace that would have won them the President’s Trophy and the Jennings Trophy. Hard to be overly critical of a trade that transformed a .500 team into a top-tier contender.

3. Signing Mathieu Schneider

Sleek's initial take: Brian Burke certainly acted as if Niedermayer's retirement is a sure thing. Think about this: if Scott were to play his contract next year, that would mean that the Ducks' goalie and top four defensemen would cost roughly $26 M next year; that's more than half the salary cap. And then the logical move, oddly enough, would probably be to trade away the newly-signed Schneider.

It’s really tough for me to get angry with Burke for this signing, as it seemed a logical reaction to Scott Niedermayer’s effective retirement. It didn’t pan out, obviously, and did put the Ducks in a heck of a salary cap crunch at the end of last summer, but I think the signing made sense in its context and Schneidermayer certainly knew what a potential salary mess he was getting himself into. What clouds this issue somewhat is the poor start that Schneider has had in Atlanta -- certainly his numbers suggest that he is washed up. However, I'd guess that he's being mis-used on the Thrashers; for the past few seasons Schneider has been an extremely effective weapon in easy minutes, playing behind a Nick Lidstrom or a Chris Pronger. In Anaheim, Schneider certainly had a solid year: At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. While certainly the team would have been easier to manage last season without Schneider's salary on the books, Burke saw a gaping hole on his blueline and reacted to it. In retrospect, the signing proved excessive, but at the time when Niedermayer's retirement seemed believable enough, I think Burke got a decent replacement option off the UFA market, and that's not something I'll spend too much time criticizing.

So there you have it, three moves that I don't criticize Burke for (at least, not to the extent that others do). Agree or disagree with my assessments, or do you have another example of your own? Feel free to leave it in the comments. Then stay tuned for Burke Week Part II (possibly tomorrow?), where I'll point out some moves where I am more critical on Burke's decision-making.

Go Ducks.

Barnyard Miracles! Bobby Ryan turns from a Duck to a Pig

Poor Bobby Ryan. The kid picked one slot behind Sidney Crosby hasn't had much opportunity to shine on an NHL stage. He played in his first 25 NHL games last year, including 2 in the Dallas series, and after a strong camp this season, was demoted yesterday to the AHL Chops mainly for salary cap reasons.

This is a situation that it's a bit tough to write about, because there's several unknowns at work here: (a) Bobby Ryan's bonus clauses -- thanks to NHL secrecy, I have no idea what Ryan would need to do in order to earn his $1.1 M in bonuses, though I'd guess they pertain to NHL-level achievements. If Ryan started on the Ducks, though, the $1.1 M would count against the cap as potential achievements, and I can't say at what point these bonuses become unachievable. (b) Bobby Ryan's potential -- I've liked what I've seen out of the kid in limited exposure thus far, but Ryan's played most of his hockey completely off my radar. I assume the kid is good, because of draft position and all, but really it's all question marks until it happens on NHL ice. (c) the Anaheim Ducks' need -- This is a biggie -- the Ducks will have Getzlaf-Perry and Morrison-Selanne on their top two lines, and Chris Kunitz will definitely get one of the open wing spots. There's plenty of bodies for the bottom lines also -- Pahlsson-Moen-Niedermayer + Sutherby-Marchant-Carter + Parros-Ebbett-May. Assuming somebody can handle a cushy promotion, I'm not that worried about forward depth this year. There's no Doug Weights or Todd Bertuzzis that need to be hidden in the top lines, at least.

On July 1st, when Corey Perry signed his 5-year contract, I wrote a post looking at how various wingers did next to Getzlaf-and-Perry. It wasn't a fabulous study, but it did show a trend how a "banger" like Brian Sutherby, Brad May, or Jason King got better results than a "scorer" like Kunitz or Bertuzzi. Getzlaf and Perry have always thrived with a Fedoruk-type on their wing, and perhaps that will be the forward solution this year; last night Travis Moen got an audition on the top line (and congrats to Teemu on the hat trick -- fucking awesome). Anyways, forwards can be a discussion for another day, but I don't get the sense that the Ducks need Ryan desperately to become any NHL-level hero just yet.

And that's probably why I shrug at the news that Ryan has to wait his turn to make an NHL impact. I'm always a guy who's in favor of over-sheltering young talent, for maturity reasons and for salary-impact reasons. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry can be a quick example here. When they were brought up to the NHL, it was in a no-pressure situation: 4th line minutes with Fedoruk watching their back, and not a ton of scoring was needed out of them. Even when they got sent down to the AHL for a month or so that first year, that lowered the pressure even further -- they weren't in any Calder Trophy race, for reasons outside their control. Year Two was stepped up a notch -- they were in cushy 2nd-line spots but more scoring was expected (and delivered) that year. And now they're affordable NHL stars.

If Bobby Ryan is really a future cornerstone of this franchise, what's not important to me is the NHL impact he makes in the next two years; he probably needs to do enough to demonstrate he's on the right path, but it's important to remember -- the more NHL achievements he gets, the more expensive his next contract becomes. I don't want him winning any Calder Trophy (which is safe anyways, since he plays on the west coast), and I'd rather not see any 90-point years just yet. I know it's twisted in a way, but holding back Ryan is probably good for the kid and good for the franchise. And I am kind of encouraged by this Bobby Ryan quote about the downside of contract bonuses:

"You just want to warn guys that it could be something that comes back to bite you. I'd waive 'em in a heartbeat if I could – take it down to the league minimum or whatever it would be. When it's right there in front of your face and it's a couple hundred thousand dollars that's hurting you, it's tough."

If this kid can somehow get that team-friendly-contract notion in his head now, I'm feeling pretty optimistic. Now don't get me wrong -- I'm hoping Ryan kicks ass in the AHL and forces Burke to put him in the big leagues a la Be a Pro; I expect he'll be easier to promote later in the season when bonuses become unattainable anyway. If he plays well enough, Bobby Ryan can be this year's trade deadline day pickup, and hopefully enjoy a relatively pressure-free transition into this league, just like Getzlaf and Perry did before him.

Color me an optimist; Go Ducks.

Crisis Averted! Thoughts on the Schneidermayer Trade

At long last, Mathieu Schneider has been traded. A mere fifteen months since he signed on with the Ducks, he was shipped off to Atlanta yesterday afternoon in exchange for Ken Klee and a few bodies.

To be fair, it's been an eventful fifteen months for the Ducks, thanks to a steady pattern of un-retirement from Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. Anyways, here's some things I feel should be pointed out about the trade.

1. It's important to understand: Mathieu Schneider was not a failure for the Ducks, and I'm not convinced he's overpaid. I think he'll have a good year in Atlanta. With the recent waiving of Schneider and the fact that 29 teams refused to pick him up for free, I think there's been a lot of misconception that "Schneider has lost it" or that "he's grossly overpaid". Those statements could certainly be applied earlier in the summer to Todd Bertuzzi, but I think in Schneider's case they're off-base.

When Scott returned to the Ducks lineup in December, Coach Carlyle resumed his pattern of splitting all the important even-strength minutes to his two main pairings: Niedermayer-Beauchemin and Pronger-O'Donnell. Schneider was left to play easy Dipenta-minutes with Kent Huskins, plus was given some top power play time. Pretty ripe minutes for an offensive talent like Schneider, and there's not much bad to say about his overall results. At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. Schneider outscored his opposition like crazy, even if it was done in fairly easy ice time. If he can get those sort of sweet minutes on Atlanta, I don't really see why he can't get similarly good results this year.

Schneider's waiving and trading was a function of salary cap math, not his play on the ice. With $13M at Niedermayer and Pronger, $7.3M at Giguere and Hiller, $10+M at Getzlaf and Perry, the Ducks couldn't afford the luxury of having Schneider play easy bottom-pairing minutes (not when a half-million dollar guy could do it a la Dipenta). Sure, Schneider did have a miserable 6-game playoffs, but that's true of a lot of Ducks, and I'd consider his regular season more indicative of his ability.

One other area Schneider could have improved last year was in the actual function of replacing Niedermayer -- Schneider ended up missing nearly half the games that Niedermayer sat out because of an ankle injury. Still, if you want to see some measure of Schneider's impact, the 15 pre-Niedermayer games he missed the Ducks had a 9.9% power play effectiveness, and the 19 pre-Niedermayer games that Schneider played in the power play jumped to 21.6%.

Is Schneider overpaid? I guess that depends on how he's used and who he's compared against. If I had a choice of landing 1 year of Schneider at $5.6M, 8 years of Brian Campbell at $7.1M, or 6 years of Wade Redden at $6.5 M, I'd probably take the first option. He may not be as capable or as sturdy, but it's a one-year gamble for lesser money, and he comes with a better shot (at least he scored more goals than the other two). Basically, if the Ducks had the money, I'd be all over keeping Schneider next year.

2. That said, I understand some of the reasons GMs passed on Schneider on waivers a week ago.

By not allowing Brian Burke an easy out to his over-the-salary-cap conundrum, GMs could not only stick it to Burke but force him to sweeten the Schneider deal with additional assets. GMs were playing coy; the ones at the front of the waiver list (generally the teams with cap room) imagined that they could wait for Schneider's re-entry waivers and nab the defender for half his salary. There was also talk of forcing Burke to throw in Bobby Ryan or a valued draft pick to make the deal even sweeter.

Basically, Burke was in a shitty position and everyone knew it. He had to unload Schneider before the North American season started, and so long as rival GMs could avoid accommodating that, the price for Schneider would be forcibly lowered. Somebody was going to get the privelege of fleecing Brian Burke in a trade, and by ignoring Schneider on waivers, GMs could improve the chances that they would be the ones to get that opportunity.

The main problem that rival GMs had, though, was that they had to snub Burke's trade requests collectively in order to drive Schneider's price down, but in the end only one of the clubs was actually going to reap the benefit of this collective action. It became a bit of a game theory exercise, where clubs had to weigh the benefits of forcing Burke's hand with the likelihood that they could individually collect on that pressure. For his part, Burke played his hand brilliantly, never crying poor or crying foul, but using that "don't let me give Schneider to somebody else" angle to get decent value back for the cap-necessitated move.

3. Trade assessment: thumbs way up, but there's probably a Part 2 coming. I have to admit, the Schneider outcome scared me a good deal these past few weeks, as the number of trade suitors dwindled down to a handful while the need to move Schneider's salary increased. It was tough to guess what Burke might need to do in order to move the salary, and talks of dropping Bobby Ryan or future assets to solve a short-term problem wasn't a comforting notion at all.

The fact that Burke managed to move Schneider without mortgaging the future means that by my eye, this trade is a whopping success. The Ducks did pick up some $1.8M in salary with Ken Klee and Brad Larsen, but neither is signed beyond this year so it's not even a long-term repercussion.

While this move does put the Ducks under the salary cap ceiling, there is still likely another salary-shedding move yet to come in order to fit in the Finnish Flash. Teemu Selanne remains unsigned, and he's even talking about the possibility of wanting a two-year deal from the Ducks. While normally I'd advise against such a contract for a player over 35, especially in the wake of the issues of Schneider's similar situation, in this case I'm probably for gambling on Teemu. Really the main motivator for me is cheapness -- by salary cap law Selanne will have to sign a bargain contract in order to fit on this year's roster, maybe less than a million, and if he's willing to extend that minimal salary another year, why that's hardly a gamble at all. If the Ducks move enough salary, however, that Teemu gets signed for something like $2M, at that point I'm more in favor of doing 1-year deals for Teemu.

At any rate, I don't really know what this next move will be. There seems enough movable bodies among the forwards and defensemen now that there's lots of possibilities. Still, it's important to note that the Schneider trade has brought the Ducks out of crisis mode, and for that I'm excited. It's rare that a salary dump like this one can be so well-received in both participating cities, but in this case I think it's warranted. The Thrashers have landed themselves a legitimate scoring threat on the blueline, and the Ducks have gained cap compliance without selling out the future. Great work, Brian Burke. If you ever decide not to move to Toronto, I'll support extending your tenure.

Go Ducks.

Schneider to Atlanta

The Atlanta Thrashers have acquired defenseman Mathieu Schneider from the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Ken Klee, forward Brad Larsen and a minor-league prospect. LINK.

Per NHLNumbers, Ken Klee will make $1.25 million this coming year, and Brad Larsen will make $560k (cap hit $535k). Klee will be a UFA next summer; Larsen will be an RFA.

More details from the OC Register's Dan Wood. Discuss, and I'll write something later.

Ducks put Schneidermayer on Waivers

Well, so much for the BoC Collaboration. Instead of waiting any longer for a trade partner, it appears that Mathieu Schneider is headed the way of the Bryzgalov:

The Anaheim Ducks, needing to trim payroll, have placed defenseman Mathieu Schneider on waivers with the expectation that a team will claim him and $5.75 million salary for this season.

Once they move Schneider off the books, the Ducks are expected to re-sign Teemu Selanne.

I don't really have any problem with this move, as I have been expecting very little in return for the productive Schneider. Basically, the ability to get under the salary cap and to bring back the Finnish Flash is plenty of return for me.

I'm in quite the hustle this morning, so this is a hasty post (note the previously-posted image), but I'll put together something more once he's claimed (if he's claimed, I guess). Still, feel free to react to the move in the comments.

Go Ducks.

[EDIT, 1 PM: As usual, the OC Register's Dan Wood provides the best perspective on the situation and its possible outcomes.]

[EDIT, 3:30 PM: Looks like the Kings are going to pass. Probably because it costs money.]

[EDIT, 4:30 PM: Moving away from MSM blogs (side gripe: I guess I should comment anonymously at these sites; both the OC Register and Inside the Kings have removed my comments presumably because I write for BoC. Hooray for freedom!), The Falconer makes a numbers-driven case for why the Thrashers should pick up Schneider.]

[EDIT, 9:30 AM: Back to Dan Wood. 29 teams passed and Schneider cleared waivers. On to Plan B!]

Random Pacific Questions: Are the Kings really going to sit out Kopitar's bargain year?

I know "Random Pacific Questions" is Rudy's gig, and I don't really mean to be spiteful or anything, but I do have an honest question for Kings fans: Really?

The Kings are going to put as little funding as possible around Anze Kopitar and Jack Johnson in this -- their last bargain season -- and you're all cool with that?

Let's clarify my thinking a bit. You see, I'm a believer in bargain years, which for a productive player is usually the last year of an entry-level deal. Because while good players will still improve even after their first contract is over, it seems near-impossible for them to become better dollar-value players, especially if they've put up some good numbers as youngsters.

On the Ducks for example, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry just finished off their bargain years -- while I suspect that both players will be better top-liners this season than last, I would rather build a team around last year's duo for $1.3 million than this year's duo for $10.7 million (rough numbers). The change in talent / experience / production won't come near to matching the change in salary. With cheap kids in the lineup, more money can be spread around to other positions (nearly $20M thrown at three defenseman slots, for example), and overall there have been some groovy results for the Ducks -- see our non-empty cup case.

On some other coast, some kids named Crosby and Malkin also finished up their collective bargain years (Crosby got his raise this summer; Malkin's up next summer), and filled last year's roster with enough talent to lose gracefully in the cup finals. True, both the Ducks and Pens are now feeling the squeeze of those raises and have to compensate by losing talent elsewhere. That's not to say that these teams are finished or anything; they'll just need to find other Getzlafs and Crosbys -- guys who will outpace their salary. But at least both teams were able to take advantage of their young-gun bargain years; they didn't sit on their hands until after those players got raises.

By the way, entry level deals aren't the only source of bargains by any means. Detroit gets a bargain by signing goalies for peanuts and having star players sign team-friendly deals. Anaheim has found bargains in a washed-up Selanne a few years ago and undrafted players like Penner and McDonald. Still, young talented players is definitely a milkable source for bargains in a salary-capped league, and by my eye the Kings are dealing with a few of them.

So is the best strategy for the Kings really to "sit this season out" and promise to spend money sometime in the future, when Kopitar and Johnson are quite expensive? As a reformed gambler, that strategy makes very little sense to me. I mean, of course more money will need to be spent in the coming years, just to keep the same team together. And as the Kings are a team that already are bemoaning their annual financial losses, I really don't see how they plan on actually adding talent to a Kopitar-and-Johnson roster in the coming years -- that would require a huge increase in spending (raises plus additions/upgrades), which seems unlikely at best.

Now I'm not the biggest Kings fan on this site, so it's quite possible I'm not seeing the full picture here. Perhaps Lombardi has a plan where he's going to use some other bargain years (Doughty and friends) to build around, and maybe there's even a plan (cough, Schneider, cough) to still better this year's roster. And maybe there's really no envisionable win-scenario for the Kings: even if they spent to the ceiling the Kings couldn't compete with the big boys in the west.

Still, if you tell me that (a) Kopitar is the real deal, (b) this is the cheapest he will ever be again, and (c) Kings fans do actually enjoy winning, I don't know why everyone seems to drink so much Lombardi Kool-Aid when it comes to cap-floor spending. If you asked me what would be the better team -- if the Kings spent to the cap ceiling with a cheap Kopitar this year, or if the Kings spent to the cap ceiling with an expensive Kopitar next year -- I'd fully expect this year's team to be the better version, because there's so much extra money to spend elsewhere. Isn't this the year for the Kings to go for a gamble, instead of essentially folding before the flop? Is Kopitar's best-opportunity window shutting, or am I just crazy?

Rationalize it for me, Kings fans.

(p.s. I don't really want to hear "but the Kings need to save cap space next year for Kopitar's raise!" as a valid excuse. It's very possible to spend money this season without touching next year's cap, and even if they did, it's not that difficult to ditch salary if needed -- see all the teams unworried about their current over-the-cap situation this late in the summer.)

I Love the Salary Cap

Buried in Puck Daddy's live chat yesterday was this quote by David Pagnotta, in reference to where Mathieu Schneider might be heading:

Ducks and Kings have spoken about it. Just spoke to a source early today and the Ducks are trying to move him to LA before the Hawks ship Khabby there.

I hope this becomes an annual thing, where teams fight each other to make trades that make their teams worse.

The Kings Are Going To Be Fine

Despite what Spector says, the Kings will have no trouble hitting the cap floor. None. I cannot stress this enough. Look (all numbers in the millions of dollars):

Michal Handzus- 4.00
Dustin Brown- 3.175
Alexander Frolov- 2.9 (hahahahaha)
Kyle Calder- 2.75
Tom Preissing- 2.75
Jack Johnson- 2.15
Denis Gauthier- 2.1
Derek Armstrong- 1.5
Ted Purcell- 1.35
Matt Greene- 1.15
Dan Cloutier buyout- 1.03
Anze Kopitar- .956
Brian Boyle- .835
Jason Labarbera- .825
John Zeiler- .725
Erik Ersberg- .7
Alyn McCauley buyout- .667
Raitis Ivanans- .6


16 players, $30.143 million

RFA's that will make the team:

Patrick O'Sullivan: 3?
Jarret Stoll: 3?
Drew Doughty: 3?
Matt Moulson: .75?
Joe Piskula: .5?
Peter Harrold: .5?

6 players, $10.75 million

Total: 22 players (and 2 buyouts), $40.893 million

That leaves one spot for another defenseman, whether he be Drew Bagnall or Mathieu Schneider. (Keep the dream alive, people!) Doughty's cap hit is inflated through performance bonuses, which go away when they are no longer achievable; the obvious way around this is to make the performance bonuses easily achievable for this season. The Kings could use one more contract just to clear the floor by a good amount, but it's not crucial. Not to mention, it's the end of July and the Kings don't have to worry about their cap situation until the end of September. Bottom line: I'm much more worried about the Kings' ability to ice a credible defense than I am about their ability to reach the cap floor.

And the Kings aren't moving to Kansas City, people. C'mon.

Sleek forgets to include heroism in Bettman art

On Tuesday, Puck Daddy Greg Wyshynski (the Darth Vader of hockey bloggers) started a Bettman-themed Art Contest, dedicated to portraying Gary Bettman (the Jar-Jar Binks of NHL commissioners) in a heroic light, and he's already put up some early submissions, as have a few bloggers. Of course this is a movement I can enthusiastically support (I figure that I'm some sort of Threepio unit in this analogy), as I endorse all forms of cheesy internet art.

Darth Wyshwhatshisname then followed it up with a threatening e-mail: If you don't enter this contest, I will find you and kick you. And with that, this droid went to work. I jotted ideas down for most of a Tatooine workday, then sped home in my landcruiser to get Photoshoppin' (would you believe I still have yet to try the actual tool Photoshop? Here's Sleek's makeshift method.).

As the post title suggests, though, I strayed from the heroic theme. Instead, I followed this thought process:

Hero -> Protagonist -> Title Character -> Movie Poster -> Movie Poster Pun
and really focused on that last leap. In fact, I should have entered a contest called "Gary Bettman Cheesy Movie Poster Puns that don't use the obvious Batman link", where I easily could have taken third place. I guess I should add that I wasn't fully motivated to win Greg's contest; PJ sends me free Versus-themed shit already. It may turn out I end up getting kicked more because of this post, but if you love cheesy Gary poster puns like I do, enjoy these entries; but then consult a doctor:

Entries One and Two:

Not too heroic, I guess. Maybe praising Gary is beyond my abilities.

Bonus Non-Entry:

Even worse. I didn't even end up submitting this one, as:
a) it clearly went against the heroism theme,
b) it didn't turn out looking as good as the other ones, and
c) I haven't ever seen this show, so I didn't know what sort of joke to add to the pun.

Entry Three:

I do like this one. It has a nice charm and a nice built-in story.
Gary meets Salary. Gary caps Salary. Salary cheats Cap. Gary moves to Kansas City.
So, commenters, any good Bettman poster puns I missed? You don't have to draw them or anything, but 25 Mike Chen bonus points if you describe a loose story. Heroism is optional.

Cal Worthington and his dog Spot > Los Angeles Kings

D.C. may have Eastern Motors, but they got nothing on Cal Worthington and his dog spot. If you have lived anywhere in California over the last 20 years you have been bombarded by this random car salesman hawking the worst looking automobiles imaginable while riding everything from grizzly bears to a flock of penguins. The commercials usually aired in the coveted 1-4AM time slot, better to appeal to the less than sober consumer.

According to NHLscap.com, the Los Angeles Kings are sitting at a 2008-09 salary of $29.5M. A whopping $27M under the $56.7M salary cap and $11.2M under the $40.7 million salary cap floor. With 10 NHL forwards under contract and 4 NHL defenseman, a dip into free agency and the continuation of Dean Lombardi's rebuilding youth movement are definite possibilities. With the free agent ranks approaching Who's Left? territory, launching an offer sheet on restricted free agents becomes more attractive by the minute.

Before Barry Melrose accepted the head coaching job with Tampa Bay, he said that he thought the open San Jose Sharks position was the best one available in the NHL. New Kings head coach Terry Murray takes over a Los Angeles Kings team that tied Tampa with only 71 points, but based on win totals the Lightning (31-42-9) edge out the Kings (32-43-7) as the worst team in the NHL. While the Lightning have gone off the deep end signing almost 2 teams worth of NHL forwards, the Kings are another story. During the press conference today announcing Terry Murray's hiring, general manager Dean Lombardi said, "I think this is the toughest job in the National Hockey League right now". With an incomplete NHL roster, a hole in the crease and several young defenseman expected to fill significant roles on the blueline there are significant question marks for Los Angeles moving forward. Unless 2008-09 is going to be the season-long campaign to draft John Tavares first overall, Lombardi needs to identify targets, specifically a goaltender (Khabibulin?) and a veteran NHL defenseman who can absorb minutes like brawnee paper towels, then work the phones to make it happen.

If you need a better goaltender, go see Cal. For the best deals on defenseman, go see Cal. If you want your buyout payments low, if you want to save some dough, go see Cal, go see Cal, go see Cal. Any player, any team, go see Cal. If you want one who uses afrosheen, go see Cal. Its a giant supermart, save a bundle play it smart, go see Cal, go see Cal, go see Cal.

[Update] Murray to be introduced as the Kings' new coach, Flyers assistant will be the 22nd man to hold the top job for L.A., succeeding Crawford - Los Angeles Times.

BoC United: Schneider for Tukonen

The Los Angeles Kings need a leader. Right now they're deplorable on defense and need someone to help muster their woeful defensive unit into something resembling a fighting force. They need a leader on the power play, preferably left-handed. Most importantly, they need a solid, dependable player who can show this young team how to act and perform in the NHL. Oh, and he should be Jewish.

Not him. He's a Muslim Christian, not a Jew.

The Anaheim Ducks need space. They're right up against the cap and they need room for Teemu Selanne. They have a plethora of defenseman and can move one of them for the requisite cap space. They need to find a team that has plenty of cap space and needs a defenseman. They can't take too much salary back in return, so hopefully that team will have plenty of prospects or picks next year to trade. The Ducks have one more good run in them; they just need another team to help them out.


Friends, I come before you as a Ducks hater from before the team took the ice. I've mocked, ridiculed, blasphemed and slandered the Ducks for as long as I've known the word "gaytarded." But it's foolish pride to let one's own biases get in the way of what's good for the franchise, and what we have here is a good opportunity. The Kings need a veteran defenseman, the Ducks need cap space. Why shouldn't the two teams help on another? Earl, Ken, and I have discussed this and we have come to the same conclusion: the Ducks should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen.


Ducks fans might feel this deal is a little one-sided. ("Why should we trade a good defenseman for some guy and also I'm a douche bag?") First off, assholes, the Ducks aren't really dealing from a position of strength; teams know that the Ducks are severely hindered if they don't move some salary around. Plus, you can't really afford to get a roster player in return because you need the space, so it's pretty much just down to prospects. Secondly, Tukonen is a unique guy. He was drafted 11th overall in 2004 but has been done in by injuries and under-performance so far. He needs a fresh start with another team; the Kings have always had an expectation that he'll become a superstar, but with another team he can focus on becoming a solid complementary player. He's great in the corners and an excellent forechecker, attributes greatly appreciated by Brian Burke. His career maps out similarly to Rob Niedermayer and the Ducks could help guide him. If you want the Kings to throw in a 4th or something, fine, whatever. The only other real option are the Ottawa Senators, and I don't see those two teams matching up.


Kings fans might wonder why they should help the Ducks. ("Why should we give them space to sign Teemu Selanne and possibly win the Cup again?") First off, you beautiful babies, we should do this deal because it's good for us. The Kings need a power play quarterback and Schneider is good at it. It's retarded to not do something because the Ducks might also gain something. Plus, if the Ducks do win the Stanley Cup, they can't rub it in our faces because they wouldn't have been able to without our help. I mean, let's be honest, this may be the closest we come to winning the Cup for a while. Losing Tukonen will hurt, but the Kings already have Dustin Brown, Ted Purcell, Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds and Marc-Andre Cliche at the right wing position. And hey, maybe the Kings should do it because it's what's best for Tukonen.

So, there you have it. The Kings should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen. It might feel awkward to play one another, but we'll get used to it. Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler once set aside their differences to come to an agreement in 1938; if they can do it, why not the Kings and the Ducks?

Dan Boyle is awesome (and a Shark)

I say "Dan Boyle is awesome" because that tagline was a running joke between me and Cheechew and some of our mutual friends for a number of years. I've always thought Boyle was a great player and secretly wished the Sharks would acquire him somehow.

And now they have. For (allegedly) Matt Carle, a first rounder, a fourth rounder, and a prospect. Details will be worked out later and made official. The Sharks also get Brad Lukowich in return.

More later on the salary cap aspect of it. This, along with resigning Christian Ehrhoff and Ryane Clowe, will put the Sharks over their self-imposed budget but not to the cap. I imagine Kyle McLaren will be waived soon.

Update: Here's part of the salary-cap answer. Craig Rivet was just traded to Buffalo for two second-round picks.

Your defense is now Dan Boyle, Rob Blake, Christian Ehrhoff, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Douglas Murray, Brad Lukowich, Kyle McLaren.

Details on Perry's Contract

Today the Anaheim Ducks announced that right wing Corey Perry has been signed to a five-year contract which will run through 2012-13. According to the Los Angeles Times, the contract is worth $26.63 million, with an $8 million signing bonus. Perry will make $4.5 million next season, $6.5 million in 2009-10, $5.38 million in 2010-11 and 2011-12 and $4.88 million in 2012-13.

“Corey is one of the top young players in the NHL today,” said Executive Vice President/General Manager Brian Burke in the Ducks' press release. “He’s a true Duck, a hard-nosed goal-scorer who’s difficult to play against.”

Woo hoo!!! He's staying in Anaheim! Thank God!

Is the writing on the wall for Schneider-man?

I'll refrain from tossing any Stan Lee Cup jokes here.
Well, likely in the next week or so we should get a better handle on what's in store for next year's Anaheim squad, but if my salary cap math is right, the prospect of the Ducks keeping Schneider-man this year looks shaky at best.

Still, I think it's worth writing a post to point out that aside from timing, the Schneider and Bertuzzi situations are completely different. Mathieu Schneider had a great year on Anaheim's blueline last year, whereas Bertuzzi's year was a flop, and here's some Behind the Net stats to help show Schneider-man's side of the story.

• Even-Strength: BTN has Schneider posted as Anaheim's 2nd-best even-strength performer, though he did have fairly easy competition (3rd-easiest) and teammates (6th-easiest) in the process. His 1.27 GAON/60 was the 2nd-best defensive rate on the team. Basically, Schneider was killing easy opposition at even-strength -- after Scott returned from retirement Schneider had a stretch of nearly three months without any minus-rating games.


• Power Play: BTN is harsher here; Schneider is 9th-best on the team for PP ratings, though there's a lot of good scoring rates for the players in front of him. Things were a bit awkward for Schneider adapting to the Anaheim power play, which for years had been accustomed to a non-shooting point man in Scott Niedermayer, who for all his talent is still a pretty weak shooting option. While Schneider brought a much better shot to the unit, the PP didn't click as envisioned without the sniping of Selanne and the roaming of Niedermayer. Still, Schneider's numbers were fine, and he certainly brings talent and experience that could boost a lot of PP units around the league.


• Penalty Kill: Schneider didn't play a huge role in the Ducks' PK, but he did rank 4th-best on the team in his limited minutes. He was helped by usually facing other teams' 2nd units, but he didn't buckle when called upon.

So in summary, I think the main message I want to emphasize is that unlike Big Bert, Schneider-man did earn his money last year. He dazzled well enough in the easy minutes he was given, but even so it seems like the "best blueline evah" experiment may come to an end. Even with the cap escalating, Schneidermayer doesn't seem like an affordable option to keep as the team's third-highest-paid defenseman, especially considering the timing of the Getzlaf and Perry raises.

Even though I tend to speak fatally as to Schneider's Duck future, I should stress that I'm playing GM from an internet's distance -- who knows what silliness Brian Burke has in store? Perhaps he's pursuing a different angle to hit the budget another way -- a solution that I don't have enough imagination for. As the numbers show, keeping Schneider is a fine option if it's affordable, so I'll let Burkie do his business and see what emerges. Now at least we have a salary framework to think about; let's see some Burke magic.

Go Ducks.

Hitting the Floor

The salary cap floor for next season is $40.7 million dollars. The Kings, as of right now, have a total of about $29 million in salaries so far. I'm not the mathematical genius/geek that Earl is, but I think the Kings are going to be okay. They need to sign Patrick O'Sullivan to a deal, which hopefully will be not nearly as retarded as that Jeff Carter contract. They also need to sign Erik Ersberg, Brad Richardson, Matt Moulson, and Gabe Gauthier. O'Sullivan should get around $2-3 million over a couple of years, while the rest should get a million each. Say that's around $7 million, which puts the Kings at $36 million. If they then sign Mike Commodore (please?) and Rob Blake, the Kings should be sitting right at the floor. Some Kings fans will bitch and moan about the fact that the Kings aren't spending up to the cap, but when you consider the fact that Jack Johnson, Anze Kopitar, Ted Purcell and Brian Boyle are all going to be restricted free agents next year, it seems like a good idea to leave some space.

The Kings' situation puts them in a rather enviable position in the coming season. Take Philadelphia, for example. They're right up against the the cap and have yet to sign 5 restricted free agents. If the Kings wanted, they could offer just enough to keep Philly from matching but not enough to lose a 1st-round pick. Or, if they were so inclined, they could take on salary from another team that's near the cap in exchange for draft picks. The salary would have to be for only one year, obviously, but it could be done. Should be fun to watch.

Help me understand the Ducks' cap situation

(click image to enlarge)
OK, here's the things to know about this chart:

1. I've taken all salary numbers from NHLSCAP.com, except Sutherby's salary comes from the OC Register blog. I have completely made up Perry's salary (I gave him Getzlaf's contract) and Selanne's non-retirement plus salary (I gave him $2M). Those assumptions are shaded in yellow, and certainly worth discussing. I've mostly made them up as placeholders, not as thought-out expectations.

2. I have been very careful to separate actual dollar spending from salary cap calculation, because when Burke talks about spending $50 million, he's talking about money, not averaged salary. In cases where spending is less than cap value, I've colored the dollars-spent in blue font. When spending exceeds cap value, they are colored in red. Contracts over time are generally level or ascending, and blue values usually indicate the start of a new contract.

3. I don't really know the rules about Bertuzzi's waiver status, but I've entered it in as best I know. In fact, the reason I'm posting this is so the BoC readership can correct where I've fucked shit up. I'm too lazy to even find out if buy-outs (like Michael Leighton) are possible in this waiver situation, but that's where informed readership pays off, right? Cleared up thanks to Mike!

4. My totals reflect all the players in boxes (includes Parros and one version of Bertuzzi, but not Salcido). To the right, I also show calculations for Salcido instead of Schneider, and then on top of that to replace Marchant with an anonymous $1-M replacement player. This second step isn't necessarily my recommendation, but Marchant is probably the next option who is getting paid more this year than his salary cap figure. Ironically, his salary is more reasonable this year than any previous year of his contract, considering the context of a fast-increasing salary cap.

5. As I indicate at the bottom of the chart, I've included $1.1M in bonuses for Bobby Ryan, but I have no idea how he does or doesn't earn them. That's one question I'd love to ask Brian Burke; it's probably better if the Anaheim fanbase knew of any constraints around Ryan's playing time.

So anyone who's inclined and knows their cap-math, please take a look at this chart and let me know if I got anything wrong; if you're compelling enough in the comments, I will alter the numbers and this post. I'm hoping to get this cap situation squared up for a follow-up "suggestions" post, but I'd like to get my facts straight first.

For now, I'll say this: keeping Schneider likely presents a salary cap issue, otherwise it's not important. Also, it's probably imperative that Corey Perry get an ascending, Getzlaf-like contract. If the target is to spend $50M this season, then his actual dollar salary needs to be lower than the averaged-amount it will take to sign him.

Anyways, fire away. Let's figure out this goddamn cap math.

The salary cap: $56.7 million

In other words, the cap increased by Brian Campbell's expected annual salary.

More on free agents over the weekend...(In fact, I might make this a running thread)

Trade Possibilities to Keep the Anaheim Ducks Under the Salary Cap

It is already official that the Ducks will have to trade someone this offseason if veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer and forward Teemu Selanne decide to come back to the team after contemplating retirement.

Although the jury is still out, the rumored players to be on the chopping block are:

Todd Bertuzzi – a power forward that did not live up to expectations after his first year in Anaheim. He is currently expected to make $4 million this up-coming season which at 32 and production down makes him an easy trade for Anaheim to a team looking for help. He could draw interest from teams such as Florida, Columbus and who knows where else.

Ken’s take: I was really disappointed with Bertuzzi, he had a hard adjustment to Orange County, but I don’t think he will be Burke’s first option to trade. I look for him to remain in Anaheim.

Todd Marchant – a grinding forward making $2.66 million in 08/09. He was a huge help to the Ducks in winning the Stanley Cup, but is not a huge producer, even for a 33 year old. Not as notable a trade target as Bertuzzi but still would be good for a team.

Ken’s take: Marchant is the third most likely in this list to be traded. He is a good player and doesn’t make much of a dip into the cap. His age is a slight issue, but nothing too serious

Mathieu Schneider – a great offensive defenseman, and was brought in last season to replace Scott Niedermayer during his retirement phase, instead when Niedermayer returned Schneider added great depth on the blue line. His offensive talent saw him light the lamp often in one of final regular season game against the Kings. At 38, Schneider is the oldest player on the Ducks team, and will be collecting $5.75 million in 08/09. Schneider seems likely to be the player the Ducks most want to get rid of. The $5.75million would be nice to have back in the bank.

Ken’s take: If Schneider is the one subtracted from the team, the Ducks could trade for a defenseman worth half as much, and spend the remaining money on Teemu Selanne, and signing another forward or defenseman. The Ducks know they need to improve some small issues over last season such as goal scoring, and with that $5.75 million back, it seems best. Schneider’s age has me wondering why he isn’t one contemplating retirement, as he is older than Niedermayer (33) and Selanne (37).

All three of these players would be good choices, and Brian Burke will certainly get the best deal possible for his team. Before any decisions are made though the Ducks need to know the return status of Teemu and Scott, which is the only way the trade will truly matter.

For example: If both leave the team, then Burke only needs to worry about obtaining enough money for Corey Perry and getting that money should be fairly easily done with a small trade.

Source: Salary figures came from nhlnumber.com

Sleek's 2nd Annual Anti-Retirement Plea

Well, it's time I got down to business: Just like last summer, Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne stand undecided as to whether they will retire or not. Just like last summer, Scott is under contract while Teemu is an unrestricted free agent. Unlike last summer, though, Brian Burke has given them a draft-day deadline to make their commitments.

Let's open this discussion with a statsy look at the 2007-08 Ducks season, broken down into four segments, with explanations below:

Segment	GP	Record	Win%	GF - GA = GD	PP - PK
1	34	15-15-4	.500	2.4 - 2.8 = -0.4	15.5% - 78.8%
2	22	12-7-3	.614	2.3 - 2.0 = +0.3	17.2% - 87.4%
3	17	13-3-1	.794	2.7 - 1.6 = +1.1	17.3% - 86.4%
4	15	9-6-0	.600	2.2 - 2.5 = -0.3	20.3% - 79.5%

Segment 1 is the first 34 games of the season played without Niedermayer or Selanne. It is a bit skewed by travel, however, as it opens with a six games in five cities in twelve nights stretch where the Ducks flew 11,667 miles, which is pretty far even for an actual duck. It is also skewed because it featured 17 games of Mark Mowers in a scoring role, which was predictably awful (and frankly, contributed to the trading of Andy Mac). The Segment 1 team was fairly mediocre, with some obvious excuses. The penalty kill was atrocious, with no real excuses.

Segment 2 marks the return of Scott Niedermayer, which sparked a phenomenal turnaround for the Ducks. This segment is a bit skewed because it ends with the infamous "Six Games of Suck", when the Ducks scored only five goals in six straight losses after starting the new Niedermayer era 12-2-2. Still, for the most part the team stats were vastly improved, especially the defense and the penalty-killing.

Segment 3 marks the return of Teemu Selanne, who at least saw an end to that offensive drought. This is the stretch that I really turn to when I want to defend against naysayers who think that the moves Brian Burke made last year were shit. If you look at Segments 2 and 3, it's a top-notch team, and Scott and Teemu were probably the two best players over that stretch. Burke certainly had to jump through hoops to enable their returns, but it’s tough to argue with these results, at least.

Segment 4 begins with the first game of Chris Pronger's suspension, and includes the short postseason. This is a sort of sloppy cut, because the Ducks were able to go 7-2 to end the regular season, but Pronger's absence did I think sort of derail the team in preparing for its cup defense. This segment also signifies the injury to Corey Perry, which was also a huge factor and occurred just a few games before. I probably shouldn't have included the playoff games, but they did feature both Niedermayer and Selanne.

I apologize if I've over-explained these segments, but it was a complicated year. Last season's Ducks had lots of lineup variations and strange storylines, which is a far cry from the cup-winning year. That year, stability was the norm: eight of the top ten Ducks forwards played in all 103 games. Still, I did want to break out these segments to make a few quick points regarding Scott, Teemu, their importance to the Ducks, and the ugly monster known as retirement.

1. Scott and Teemu certainly can still play, contribute, and win. They were probably the two most impressive Ducks to me last year, both in sheer talent and in their ability to fix a bleeding lineup. I think I’m going to do a separate post about the contributions of each of them, but here’s the gist: by inserting talent at the top of the lineup, defensemen and forwards were able to fall into more logical roles, and the Ducks’ performance improved dramatically.

Even more so, I'd add that their delayed seasons weren't the problem at all with the Ducks’ early exit last year. It certainly hurt when Andy Mac and Breezy were squeezed out, but I'd argue that the delayed seasons by Niedermayer and Selanne helped the Ducks' chances of repeating. It enabled a roster to be assembled by the postseason that probably wasn't affordable for a full 82-game schedule.

Of the two, I’d argue that just like last summer, the retirement decision of Niedermayer means more to the success of next year’s team. You can read through my Mr. Incredible post to see some of the statistical impact of his return, but the difference between a one-Norris team and a two-Norris team is incredible; two years ago Pronger vastly improved a Niedermayer-led blueline, and last year Scott returned the favor. I don’t mean to undersell the importance of Teemu, a master in the offensive end and on the power play, but if I had to pick one player to return, it’d be Scott.

2. I don’t think either player retires this week, but I’m an optimist. I have no insider information, and I know a lot of Ducks fans have different theories, but I just keep coming back to this fact: here are two guys who had something like six months to get off the retirement fence last year, and neither one could make the call to end their careers early. Why should I expect that their inability to retire has changed, especially given their excellent play last season?

I know that squeezing them into this year’s budget will be a hurdle, but I think both players have a strong sense of their on-ice importance to the Ducks, and I suspect we’ll see both re-assume their roles for training camp.

3. If Scott does not retire, it’s time to move Schneider. He was my first choice to be shipped out when Scott unretired last year, as it didn’t really make sense to keep both Scott and his apparent replacement, especially at their salary levels. I don’t want to overly knock “Schneidermayer”, who even took home some wayward Norris Trophy votes for his easy-minute dominance, but here’s the reality:

Giguere is making $6M, and Pronger and Niedermayer combine for another $13M, and assuming they’re all willing to play, none of them are going anywhere. Schneider’s additional $5.625M salary commitment becomes excessive at that point, because frankly, there’s not that many more minutes available for him to earn or exceed his dollar value. Instead, that money is needed to shore up the forward ranks, both in paying Getzlaf and Perry’s raises, as well as finding some scratch to pay UFA Selanne.

In a lot of ways, the Ducks are painted into a corner in what they can do this offseason—if Niedermayer and Selanne are in next year’s plans, there are more salary commitments than the Ducks can afford, and we may see Brian Burke get trade-active on draft day (“I’ll trade you the rest of that sandwich for Todd Bertuzzi.”). Still, I’m pretty excited for what next year’s squad can do, in what might be the swan song for the Niedermayer-and-Pronger Ducks. I still can’t believe how fortunate we’ve been to see these two different-style all-stars patrol the blue line the last couple of years, and if there’s one more shot at seeing it, I’m fully aboard.

More stats-crunching and salary-talking to come as these retirement decisions become known, but for now, Go Ducks.