Over-rated! (in video games)

Jay Bouwmeester is fucking fast. And he skates like a god damn gazelle.

I say this without the experience of actually watching him play in games. How do I know this, so irrefutably?

Like a god damn gazelle.

Because damn if the guy isn't the closest digital equivalent to Bobby Orr in hockey video games - whether its the 2K series or the EA Sports ones. This fact is made all the more glaring since there really aren't any true threats to his polygonal skating throne (the closest competition would probably be Sergei Gonchar, Sergei Zubov or former Rudy Kelly lover Luber Visnovsky).

So, it is to my great game playing excitement that most hockey pundits are labeling Bow-monster the next Brian Campbell.

Can you imagine what his unparalleled digi-speed and agility could do on a team that, you know, someone would voluntarily watch on TV? What his almost-Afinogenov-like skating would do for a team like Anaheim* or Pittsburgh* or Detroit* or Ottawa*?

At a reasonable 84 this year, it seems like Bouwmeester's rating is actually moderately accurate in NHL '08 (although, answer me this question if you're one of the 5 people who follow the Panthers: is he really that fucking fast?). But year after year he's one of those guys whose "potential" rating made him become a 90 by the age of 25** so I almost wonder if his rating will eventually suffer some residual negativity.

Anyway, this is off the top of my head, but here's a list of players who are comically overrated in hockey video games - with their ratings in parenthesis. Naturally, this is a pretty quick list, so lemme know some obvious ones I've left out in the comments:

• Michael Peca (86) Somewhere, there is a list floating around the blogosphere. It is titled "Unofficial list of players who inspire irrational hatred." Yeah, Peca is exceedingly mediocre. But maybe people hate him so unfairly because his video hockey skills are so greatly disproportionate to his actual, real life abilities.

• Eric Lindros (82) I believe that one of the online roster updates finally weeded The Concussed One out of video games.*** But before that, the oft-injured power forward has been a beast on the imaginary ice years beyond his real life relevance. (John Leclair is pretty much in the same spot, with far less "shine a light in his eyes" type jokes)
  
  It's......probably a good thing that these guys never won a Cup
  

• Todd Marchant (80-something) Never noticed it, really, because I never used the Edmonton Oilers back in the day and Marchant's general hockey career has been harmlessly irrelevant. But Sleek pointed him out when I did a top-5 video game countdown and it's changed his digi profile ever since. Since speed is such a huge factor in video games (especially in the days when all you really need to do was deke to score goals), his unrealistic impact has become downright jarring.

I mean, at least Lindros was on The Legion of Doom line.

• Sergei Fedorov (89) If he was this great in real life again, he could probably re-bang Anna Kournikova.
  
  
  Sergei Fedorov and the dudes who decide ratings: both nostalgic.
  
  

• The legacy of Alexei Yashin. Whenever people think of albatross contracts, they usually have to mention him.

But there's also the Yashin effect in games: video game rating makers feel sorry for fans of teams who sign players to albatross contracts and "give 'em a little boost." And why not, really? Those poor fans are the ones that ultimately have to deal with that terror (since GMs typically just pack up their office and move on to a different job).

Rick Dipietro and The Bulin Wall (to a lesser extent) are both well above average goaltenders. But in NHL '08 these guys are equal or even better than J.S. Giguere, Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist. Something tells me that, big contract or not, the Kings would probably want to trade for Khabibulin if he was anywhere near Lundqvist's level.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

* - Teams I arbitrarily picked out of a hat for being "potentially good" and maybe, somehow having some serious cap space next summer.

** - The early "franchise modes" of video games really went over the top with these "potential" ratings. If the NHL really worked that way, Gilbert Brule would be a few steps behind Evgeni Malkin and Andrew Raycroft would now be Roy 2.0. It seems like that trend is dying off now, although the creatively devoid Madden series really needs to cut that "team full of 99s" bullshit.

*** - It probably needs to be stated that, for this study, I'm only referring to NHL 08. Because the 2K series might as well cease to exist.

Help me understand the Ducks' cap situation

(click image to enlarge)
OK, here's the things to know about this chart:

1. I've taken all salary numbers from NHLSCAP.com, except Sutherby's salary comes from the OC Register blog. I have completely made up Perry's salary (I gave him Getzlaf's contract) and Selanne's non-retirement plus salary (I gave him $2M). Those assumptions are shaded in yellow, and certainly worth discussing. I've mostly made them up as placeholders, not as thought-out expectations.

2. I have been very careful to separate actual dollar spending from salary cap calculation, because when Burke talks about spending $50 million, he's talking about money, not averaged salary. In cases where spending is less than cap value, I've colored the dollars-spent in blue font. When spending exceeds cap value, they are colored in red. Contracts over time are generally level or ascending, and blue values usually indicate the start of a new contract.

3. I don't really know the rules about Bertuzzi's waiver status, but I've entered it in as best I know. In fact, the reason I'm posting this is so the BoC readership can correct where I've fucked shit up. I'm too lazy to even find out if buy-outs (like Michael Leighton) are possible in this waiver situation, but that's where informed readership pays off, right? Cleared up thanks to Mike!

4. My totals reflect all the players in boxes (includes Parros and one version of Bertuzzi, but not Salcido). To the right, I also show calculations for Salcido instead of Schneider, and then on top of that to replace Marchant with an anonymous $1-M replacement player. This second step isn't necessarily my recommendation, but Marchant is probably the next option who is getting paid more this year than his salary cap figure. Ironically, his salary is more reasonable this year than any previous year of his contract, considering the context of a fast-increasing salary cap.

5. As I indicate at the bottom of the chart, I've included $1.1M in bonuses for Bobby Ryan, but I have no idea how he does or doesn't earn them. That's one question I'd love to ask Brian Burke; it's probably better if the Anaheim fanbase knew of any constraints around Ryan's playing time.

So anyone who's inclined and knows their cap-math, please take a look at this chart and let me know if I got anything wrong; if you're compelling enough in the comments, I will alter the numbers and this post. I'm hoping to get this cap situation squared up for a follow-up "suggestions" post, but I'd like to get my facts straight first.

For now, I'll say this: keeping Schneider likely presents a salary cap issue, otherwise it's not important. Also, it's probably imperative that Corey Perry get an ascending, Getzlaf-like contract. If the target is to spend $50M this season, then his actual dollar salary needs to be lower than the averaged-amount it will take to sign him.

Anyways, fire away. Let's figure out this goddamn cap math.

Trade Possibilities to Keep the Anaheim Ducks Under the Salary Cap

It is already official that the Ducks will have to trade someone this offseason if veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer and forward Teemu Selanne decide to come back to the team after contemplating retirement.

Although the jury is still out, the rumored players to be on the chopping block are:

Todd Bertuzzi – a power forward that did not live up to expectations after his first year in Anaheim. He is currently expected to make $4 million this up-coming season which at 32 and production down makes him an easy trade for Anaheim to a team looking for help. He could draw interest from teams such as Florida, Columbus and who knows where else.

Ken’s take: I was really disappointed with Bertuzzi, he had a hard adjustment to Orange County, but I don’t think he will be Burke’s first option to trade. I look for him to remain in Anaheim.

Todd Marchant – a grinding forward making $2.66 million in 08/09. He was a huge help to the Ducks in winning the Stanley Cup, but is not a huge producer, even for a 33 year old. Not as notable a trade target as Bertuzzi but still would be good for a team.

Ken’s take: Marchant is the third most likely in this list to be traded. He is a good player and doesn’t make much of a dip into the cap. His age is a slight issue, but nothing too serious

Mathieu Schneider – a great offensive defenseman, and was brought in last season to replace Scott Niedermayer during his retirement phase, instead when Niedermayer returned Schneider added great depth on the blue line. His offensive talent saw him light the lamp often in one of final regular season game against the Kings. At 38, Schneider is the oldest player on the Ducks team, and will be collecting $5.75 million in 08/09. Schneider seems likely to be the player the Ducks most want to get rid of. The $5.75million would be nice to have back in the bank.

Ken’s take: If Schneider is the one subtracted from the team, the Ducks could trade for a defenseman worth half as much, and spend the remaining money on Teemu Selanne, and signing another forward or defenseman. The Ducks know they need to improve some small issues over last season such as goal scoring, and with that $5.75 million back, it seems best. Schneider’s age has me wondering why he isn’t one contemplating retirement, as he is older than Niedermayer (33) and Selanne (37).

All three of these players would be good choices, and Brian Burke will certainly get the best deal possible for his team. Before any decisions are made though the Ducks need to know the return status of Teemu and Scott, which is the only way the trade will truly matter.

For example: If both leave the team, then Burke only needs to worry about obtaining enough money for Corey Perry and getting that money should be fairly easily done with a small trade.

Source: Salary figures came from nhlnumber.com

Ducks Gameday—Scattered advice from a tired blogger

Vancouver Canucks (35-24-10, 8th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (39-25-8, 4th in west)

Here's how the season series with Vancouver has gone thus far this season:

G1: Ducks allow the first four goals, lose 4-0.
G2: Ducks allow the first three goals, lose 3-2.
G3: Ducks allow the first two goals, lose 2-1.

So how about this time, the Ducks try scoring first (or at least, second)? I've got this wacky theory about the Canucks in that they're damn difficult to come back against when it comes to multi-goal deficits. An early lead might prove fruitful. It's sort of an untested theory at this point, but I'd sure like to see the Ducks give it a try tonight.

I suppose the Sharks and Stars are the target now, with first round home ice being the reward for catching one of them. I've always thought that home ice advantage was a bit overblown, however, and based on the Ducks' shootout lineup last night, the Anaheim coaching staff thinks so also. Here's the shootout lineup that they threw out there last night, which lost laughingly to Bryzgalov and his Coyote friends.

Todd Bertuzzi I actually did see Bertuzzi score on a breakaway against Nabokov this year, but it was in the same game where he had earlier failed on a penalty shot, so essentially it took him two breakaways to score. Bert's still got some hands, but let's not kid ourselves here. He doesn't willfully take shots during the game, what makes him any sort of candidate for the shootout? Bad call, Carlyle.

Todd Marchant This is wrong on so many levels (on every platform except NHL 07). Todd Marchant gets about 40 breakaways a year and scores on zero of them. He is the king of not scoring on glorious scoring chances (where do you think he got the nickname Stone Hands?), but rather will score goals like we've seen in the last two games: fluky bounce-pucks that leave a brown taste in goaltenders' mouths. Horrible call, Carlyle, especially when Stone Hands dropped the puck halfway to the net. Next time I see Marchant in a shootout, he'd better be the fifteenth shooter.

Chris Pronger Yeah, I think a lot of people saw Pronger in '06 become the first person to score a penalty shot goal in the cup finals, but few are clinging to that memory the way Carlyle is. C'mon, coach. He's wearing a frickin' jaw basket and you think it might be time to hearken back to beating Cam the sham Ward? Rotten call, Carlyle.

Look. The Ducks lose shootouts all the time, and I'm always very cool about it. I know that Anaheim has designed its roster around owning the boards, and thus they regularly seem out of their element in shootouts. And that's cool with me--boardwork wins in the postseason, whereas Dallas, one team that can be associated with shootout success, has yet to win a playoff round since the shootout was invented. Still, last night for the first time I really found myself livid, not necessarily at the shootout result, but rather in the manner and lineup that the Ducks decided to lose it. Since Carlyle took over the team, last night stands as the one time I can think of where the Ducks almost intentionally left standings points on the table. An odd time of the year for those sort of shenanigans, that's for sure.

I'll let it slide, but dear god Carlyle, if that's the shootout strategy, why not just let the opposing coach pick our shooters? Odds are, we'd probably have seen Marchant get stripped of the puck by an imaginary defender in either case.

Maybe more pressing is what I saw in regulation, which certainly was a mixed bag. Here's my advice: Bertuzzi or Weight needs to start firing some pucks on net, or these two have to be separated immediately. They are forming a huge hole on the 2nd line, and that's a huge chunk of salary to be paying guys to do nothing except feed Todd Marchant or Bobby Ryan (who can be double-covered since he's the only one who shoots). Try these top two lines: Bertuzzi-Getzlaf-Selanne and Kunitz-Weight-Ryan. Yeah, it sucks separating Kunitz from Selanne, but Weight and Bertuzzi both need to be played carefully, and frankly I just don't see them being anywhere near productive with each other. Maybe five years ago that duo would have worked, but that was back in an era when these guys willingly shot the puck. Now it's like pulling teeth, and I find both guys frustratingly easy to defend because of it.

Prediction: My dad and brother are at the game tonight, and I am not. Neither of them are particularly hockey fans, so I bet they see a yawner and I get to hear about how boring hockey is for the next six months. Ducks 2, Canucks 1. Goals by Pahlsson and Huskins. The game ends in regulation, causing Carlyle to shelf his alternate shootout lineup of O'Donnell, Sutherby, and May. Feel free to offer your own "worst shootout lineup" suggestion for the Ducks in the comments.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Who would you move to make Niederroom?

Anaheim Ducks (14-12-4, t-6th in west) at Nashville Predators (13-11-2, 11th in west)

The second guest-art installment
in the spade-in-victorhell series.
I don't have much to say about last night's game against Chicago, except (a) the Ducks won despite being outshot 42 - 22, and (b) Andy McDonald and Todd Bertuzzi went back to being invisible again. I regularly told my roommate, "Man, I can't believe we're winning this game," but whatever--I'm happy enough with the two points that I won't raise a stink. I'm guessing the same strategy won't work nearly as well in Nashville, though.

NIEDERWATCH: Here's my un-scientific listing of who's most likely to be moved to make tag room for Scotty, a list that shuffles quite regularly and isn't based on much more than my mood. I've included each player's next-year-cap figure, per NHLSCAP.com.

1. Matthieu Schneider ($5.625 M): I think logically, Schneider's paid way too much for a third-highest-paid defenseman. Even with goals in each of his last two games, I think the only reason that Schneidermayer would stay is if Burke is dead-set on icing the best blueline in NHL history, or if he's determined that Scott won't play next year and wants to pro-actively address that. As a bonus, moving Schneider might make enough tag room to sign Corey Perry to an early extension (provided Perry is willing to stay in the $4 M range).

2. Todd Marchant ($2.518 M): Even though the Ducks are forward-thin and Marchant has proved his value and versatility (especially in the last playoffs), it is a lot of salary for a guy to anchor a fourth line. Moving Marchant might involve moving a draft pick as well, though we'll see how cagey Burke can be. I'd certainly miss "Stone Hands" Marchant, as he has the highest PS2-to-Actual talent ratio on the team, but I feel that a kid like Petteri Wirtanen could play the fourth-line center role responsibly enough in limited minutes.

3. Andy McDonald ($3.333 M): Andy Mac has certainly had it rough this young season, though the dropoff in linemate talent is astronomical between Teemu Selanne last year and Mark Mowers earlier this year. Still, I don't know if to my eyes he's lost any speed or ability; he just seems to be more effective when opponents have to focus on his wingers more. Burke had better be more in tune with Teemu's mindset than I am; if Selanne is coming back, then Andy Mac drops to the bottom of this list; he was our best forward in the cup finals.

4. Francois Beauchemin ($1.650 M): Frenchie is another enigma of sorts; his goals-against rates were much better back when Scotty was covering his back. He is certainly underpaid for the amount of minutes that he plays, and thus should be fairly easy to move (in fact, I would expect some return in a Frenchie trade). Still, we shouldn't forget Frenchie's impact on the '06 playoffs; his fist-fight with Iginla and shoulder-hit on Brunette were enormous factors in advancing past Calgary and Colorado.

5. Sean O'Donnell ($1.250 M): Probably O'Donnell should be higher on this list, but I'll tell you: I think O.D. has been a tremendous team-first guy on this roster. I mean, the guy was an unrestricted free agent defenseman in a zany marketplace who had just won the Stanley Cup, and he signed back on the team for a PAY CUT. That is pretty huge in my books, and I hope that fact isn't lost on Burke. You know exactly what you are going to get on the ice with O.D.--the safest play he's capable of--but there's always a role for that kind of guy.

6. Some combination of Travis Moen ($913 K), Shane Hnidy ($718 K), Kent Huskins ($625 K), Brad May ($600 K), or George Parros ($550 K): I think dollarwise, this means Moen plus another guy. Moen (or as I call him, "the Omen") has had rough counting numbers but is still contributing defensively on the Pahlsson line. Plus he was HUGE in the playoffs, t-2nd on the team in goals and t-1st on the team in game-winners. Hnidy has been better of late, though his first instinct always seems to be to grab a guy with his free hand. The other three have all been improvements on last year's versions. There seems to be some possibility here (all these guys seem replaceable enough), but I don't think it's going to happen--it adds to the trade complexity and starts removing too many parts of an already-thin roster.

7. Todd Bertuzzi ($4.000 M): I talk trash on Bertuzzi more than most Duck fans, but given Bert's salary, I don't think there's many GMs that will easily take the guy--he'll probably cost the EDM first-rounder to move, I'd guess. But I'm not sure I'm entirely pessimistic about keeping Bertuzzi. Sure he's a floater who needs limited puck exposure, but as we saw with Penner last year, there's a way that Bertuzzi can be played effectively--essentially he'll be as good as his linemates can make him. Bert will probably look really bad on a bad team but may look really good on a good one, and if this team does take a step forward, I'm willing to stay on the Bertuzzi bet a little while longer.

So that's my list, based on zero inside sources and just my gut feel. Two things to note: (a) Burke has made his trade-timeframe public, and will not be bargaining from a position of strength. As we've seen in the case of Ilya Bryzgalov, it doesn't seem to be the case that rival GMs are in any hurry to do Burke any favors. (b) Going for Burke, though, is the fact that there isn't any real need to get any return for whichever player gets moved. Scotty (with the possibility of some Teemu) is plenty of return already. It wouldn't even be that bad if a player got on the waiver train to Phoenix.

So, just for fun, if you were Burke, which player would you look to unload? Unleash your fantasy GM skills in the comments.

Prediction: I'm not that optimistic; I'm guessing Nashville carries a lot of the play today. Still, Ducks 3, Preds 2. Goals by Platt, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Puttin' square pegs into round holes

Phoenix Coyotes (2-5-0, t-14th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (4-6-1, t-9th in west)

Missing Players by Game

(includes games where a player was unavailable to finish the game)
Well, it hasn't been the best start to the season for the champion Ducks, who between travel and injury have been reduced for the most part to a rather mediocre squad. I'm still unsure how a fully-iced Ducks squad figures to perform this year, and from the sounds of things, I don't think I'll be finding out anytime soon.

Since Bertuzzi went down early in the Minnesota game, though, it's been especially thin for the Anaheim power play. Coach Carlyle in the face of a limited roster has been loading up talent on the first power play unit, but then filling the second unit with his penalty killing personnel. The table below shows five players who, despite not playing hardly any power play time last season, have put in some serious PP minutes the last six games.

The New Power Players	Rob Niedermayer	Mark Mowers	Travis Moen	Sammy Pahlsson	Todd Marchant
Games Played Last Year	82	78	82	82	56
Total PP TOI Last Year	15:40	15:04	13:52	13:16	8:01
Avg PP TOI Last Year	0:11	0:11	0:10	0:09	0:08
Games Played Last 6 gms	5	5	6	6	4
Total PP TOI Last 6 gms	18:18	17:24	3:40	4:26	3:18
Avg PP TOI Last 6 gms	3:40	3:29	0:37	0:44	0:50
Pct Increase from LY Avg	1916%	1802%	361%	457%	576%
Season High PP TOI	6:13	4:55	2:34	2:34	2:26
Pct Increase from LY Avg	3254%	2545%	1518%	1586%	1700%

Thus far the five have combined for one power play assist (Sammy, of course), but I'm not going to knock their efforts; it's really not their gig. Anaheim's checking forwards are a special bunch, for sure, but their contributions aren't really on the ANA portion of the scoreboard. The fact that these checkers are getting such decent power play time really begs the question, though: why isn't Bobby Ryan cracking the lineup right now, even for an emergency special-teams-only engagement? Those are minutes where an offensive player could make an impact and prevent Anaheim's penalty-killers from being exhausted from unproductive power play time.

The checking line just aren't suited to be power play personnel, no matter how much ice time Carlyle insists on giving them. He may as well glue nail clippings to his lip and wait until it becomes a moustache.

Anyways, Phoenix is in town tonight for the first of eight on the season, and I'm not quite sure if that's a good thing. Since the lockout, the Ducks have used the Desert Dogs as a steady source of standings points; in sixteen games the Ducks are a whopping 13-2-1. A huge factor here is that in those 16 games, the Ducks' power play has produced 23 goals while the Coyotes' power play has produced only 8. The two points seem attainable enough, but with Anaheim's decidedly mediocre power play and overall sketchy lineup, it's not nearly as in the bag as it could be. (For the 'Yote angle, check out PB's take at One Fan's Perspective.)

Still, I've managed to come up with a saying that's annoyingly helpful in putting it all in perspective. As discouraging as the first eleven games of the 07-08 season have been, it's still the best twelve game stretch in team history (counting the last game last year, of course). Complacency will be the death of me, I guess.

Prediction: Phoenix donates two points to Anaheim's playoff drive yet again; Ducks 5, Coyotes 2. Goals by King, Wirtanen, Perry, Hnidy, and an ill-advised PPG by Pahlsson.

Go Ducks.

Great ideas in partying: the Marchant piñata head

It has been a lot of fun this summer to follow the journeys of the Stanley Cup through the Hockey Hall of Fame Journal. Well, fun for me at least.

But I was especially inspired by one picture in the cup's day with Todd Marchant; apparently the town of Williamsville, NY, made an honorary piñata to commemorate Marchant's playoff-bearded-head. I can only imagine that the piñata is meant to be broken open through vicious suspension-worthy high-sticking, right?

"C'mon, son. Cut daddy in the head and get yourself
a suspension! Stop being such a Lady Byng!"
Of course, I think this is an awesome party idea for any hockey hate enthusiast, so I leave it to you to think it through in the comments: which NHLer would you most like to put into piñata form, to blind-foldedly bash to your heart's content?

In other news:

• There is another new Ducks blog to check out: Ducks Wire. David seems to have set quite the sprinter's pace, already with 39 posts this month, but I'm not one to frown on Ducks enthusiasm. At any rate, David and previously-featured Varius are both welcome additions to the Ducks blogosphere, and to this point in the offseason are doing a lot better job of updating Burke's offseason than I am.


• As for me, I continue to remain a bit mum on this offseason until there's some sort of definitive answer out of the Niedermayer and Selanne retirement camps. The optimist in me says that if they haven't officially retired by now, then they are both totally coming back. The pessimist in me says they have already made up their minds to retire, but Burke won't let them announce it until all season ticket money is collected. To me, the more critical decision belongs to Scott, but for now my head spins will all the possibilities.


• The NHL schedule has been released, and as will be discussed further on this site, begins with two September BoC games in England. Between intercontinental jet lag and Stanley Cup hangover, I think it's going to be hard for the Ducks to avoid coming out flat in London, unless of course the team gets bolstered by the last-second news that Scott Niedermayer is indeed going to play. C'mon, Scott, the twenty thousand European fans would enjoy that dramatic announcement, I'd think.


• And lastly, BoC-founder James Mirtle doesn't think I link to him enough.