Kings Gameday: Poor Fro

LA Kings (10-11-3) vs. Edmonton Oilers (11-11-2)

7:30 PST, Fox Sports West


To recap: Sean O'Donnell takes a boneheaded penalty and giftwraps a goal for the other team? Right back on the ice. Dustin Brown takes a bad penalty with the team already down a man? Right back on the ice. Alex Frolov misses an assignment and costs the team a goal? Benched for the rest of the game (despite the fact that the team is down a goal and Fro leads the team in goals), swathed in the red jersey of the 4th liner, and forced into a one-on-one meeting with Terry Murray. That's kind of fucked up. That's like suspending the straight-A kid for talking out of turn. I hope he wasn't sad, that would break my heart.

The Kings haven't been scoring recently, with pretty much all the scoring coming from the Stoll-Handzus-Frolov line. Brownitar has been absent from view since Kyle Calder re-joined their line (I think I should have another line naming contest: Used Condom seems appropriate) and the O'Sullivan/Moller combo doesn't quite have enough juice to feast on the underbelly of other teams. Want to hear a crazy, not true theory of mine? The Kings don't want to bring up Ted Purcell because he has a lot of performance bonuses in his contract and the Kings don't want to pay for them. Insane, but possibly true.

The Kings just had a player's only meeting to try to uncover why they can't put the puck in the GD net, so we'll see how that goes tonight. Something needs to happen, though, because the Kings look pretty terrible right now.

***

If one person boos Lubo tonight, I will freak the fuck out. I will find them and kick them square in the ass.

Prediction: Kings win, 3-2. Goals by Frolov (x3). Then he talks out of turn and gets benched.

Kings Gameday: Dean Lombardi is a Dead Man

LA Kings (8-9-3) @ Edmonton Oilers (9-9-2)

7:00 PST, NHL Network, TSN


What is up, douche bags? This is Lubomir Visnovsky, El Diablo, and I'm running things around here from now on. You may be thinking, "Hey, where's Rudy Kelly?" Well, last time I saw that sniveling son of a bitch he was running towards the Arizona boarder with his pants around his ankles pleading for me to not shoot him in the back, so I don't think you're going to be seeing him for a while. (Not so funny with piss running down you leg, are ya Rudy?) Now I'm in charge, and I'm going to share the real story behind my stay in Los Angeles, and why I am going to get Dean Lombardi.

What? Yeah, that's what I thought.

I was born on the mean streets of Topolcany, Czechoslovakia. We were so poor we couldn't even pronounce the name of our growing up. I was good at 2 things: shooting pucks and killing capitalists. Naturally, I had the opportunity to do one more than the other in Slovakia, but I still tried to shoot pucks whenever I could. This is funny: this one time a guy owed a buddy of mine some money, so I went over to his house while he was sleeping and shot him in front of his kids. It was hilarious. Anyway, eventually I got drafted by the Kings and came over to Los Angeles because I was ready for a new challenge and also things were getting a little hot for me in Slovakia. So I packed up my glock, my tech 9 and my cookboook recipe (I make an excellent cookie) and I headed to LA.

Big pimpin'.

I quickly made LA my town. I had a special corner of the locker room where I made my business deals and baked and my teammates knew better than to get in my way. When they did, they were either left injured (right, Adam Deadmarsh?) or dead (RIP, Jason Allison). Sean Avery made the mistake of crossing me (I don't look like a child, mother fucker!) and had to be traded to prevent his own demise. I'll get him, though. (Here's a hint, Sean: it rhymes with "bomb!") I "convinced" Lombardi to bring over a couple of my associates, like Ladislav Nagy and Pavol Demitra, but they quickly wore out their welcome. I'm a lone wolf. I even got a contract extension from that rat Lombardi. He claims the contract talks weren't fair, but if he can't take a gun to his head than I don't want to play for him. Life was good for me.

Then, out of nowhere, that son of a bitch traded me the day before my no-trade clause kicked in. Not even that, to fucking Edmonton! Have you ever been to Edmonton? How the hell am I supposed to smoke crack up here if the shit freezes? I can't even find a proper ho because they all have this thin layer of blubber to protect from the cold. I hate it almost as much as I hate Dean Lombardi. I don't even know what I did that upset him so much; I mean, I did sleep with his wife, but that's not a big deal in Slovakia. Is it a big deal here?

PIC. He's dead now.

Dean Lombardi. You're dead, hombre. You messed with the wrong Slovakian and I'm going to make you pay. It's going to start on the ice, and then I'm going to move to your office, and then to your home. The last thing you'll ever see is my pretty little face. And I'm going to smile while I do it.

Prediction: Destruction, Lubo-style. Oh, and you better vote for Lubo for the All-Star Game. That's not a prediction, that's a threat.

Dustin Penner Sucks, Take 1,783

I've been an independent observer of this whole Dustin Penner fiasco, and like M*A*S*H* or a penis, it just gets better the longer it goes. To recap: The Oilers sign Dustin Penner to a 5-year, $21.25 million dollar deal after his astounding 43-point season playing alongside 2 scrubs named Ryan Getzly and Chris Perry or something like that. Who cares, they've never done anything anyway. There was much gnashing of the teeth from bloviating jackass Brian Burke, who criticized Lowe for ruining both teams; this was followed by a lot of back-and-forth between the outmatched Anaheim blogging contingent and the Edmonton juggernaut. But, in the end, Brian Burke was right: the Dustin Penner offer sheet not only left Edmonton with an overpaid, unmotivated baby, but also screwed the Ducks over when they had an opportunity to win a 2nd cup. To that I say, "Huzzah!"

The problem with the Edmonton offer sheet from their perspective was that they were not in the position to offer it. The Oilers were coming off a poor season, finishing 11th in the Western Conference. They had just traded their "heart and soul" in Ryan Smyth for a number of prospects and draft picks and had seemingly committed to rebuilding. Then they spent over $4 million dollars a year on Dustin Penner, losing 3 draft picks in the following draft. Strange. Now the Oilers have a weird amalgamation of good young players, overpaid free agents, and aging goaltenders that no one likes. They might make the playoffs but they're not likely to be a favorite at any point in the future and the money given to Penner can't be used on anyone else. The Oilers are a strange team.

The Ducks, on the other hand, were precisely the kind of team that was in a position to poach another team with an offer sheet. The problem, of course, was that they didn't have any money.* The Ducks ended up getting screwed by a problem mostly of their own making because for some weird reason they had signed Todd Bertuzzi and they lost Dustin Penner. This ended up killing them last season because what position did they need to fill the most? 2nd-line left wing, the exact position Penner filled last season. You may wonder why Penner is perfect in this spot yet subpar for the Oilers. One, stop asking questions. Two, when Penner was playing with Getzlaf and Perry he didn't have to bang in the corners (because Getzlaf does that) and he didn't have to fight in front of the net and paw at defenders like a little bitch (because Perry does that). What he could do was hover and find the open space for a Getzlaf pass, and he does that pretty well. Bobby Ryan will most likely fill that position in the future, but by that time Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne will be retired and the Ducks' Stanley Cup window will have temporarily closed. Hooray!

*That's why offer sheets aren't more popular, despite all the hand-wringing by writers and GMs: the teams that would benefit from them are good teams that want one more piece, but those teams are generally near the cap; the teams that can afford to spend the money need the draft picks to rebuild their franchise.

Of course, creating a counterfactual where Dustin Penner stayed on the Ducks creates a whole other set of scenarios: they probably don't sign Mathieu Schneider and they probably trade Andy MacDonald anyway. Maybe they end up trading Penner anyway and get less than the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick they got for him. But overall, I think both teams screwed themselves: the Oilers ended up with an overpaid player that doesn't fit their needs and the Ducks were hurt in one of their last years at being competitive for a Stanley Cup. It's pretty awesome if you think about it. You know, for me. The Oilers are one of those teams that could contend for a few years if they got their act together and I hate the Ducks, and in one fell swoop they managed to destroy each other. Now I just need Erik Johnson to get hurt and the Blackhawks to waste all their cap space on a red-headed goof and the Kings should be all set in the Pacific. Oh wait, that happened? Excellent. *strokes white cat

How to kill a hockey fan

I have to run to meet up for the game tonight, but this absolutely sucks. The Oilers brass, in an effort to give their pressbox the charm of a low-security prison, have not only prevented CiO's Dave from not only liveblogging from that lofty perch (which he seemed willing enough to do when condescendingly lectured), but have basically ruined the will of one of the Oilogosphere's faithful to even root for the team.

I haven't thought this through very well, but basically, Goddamn it.

Ducks Gameday—Positivity! (Is this the game?)

Edmonton Oilers (1-0-0) at Anaheim Ducks (3 opportunities for improvement!)
There's no choice except better results, right?

What I was originally going to write about.
Look, I know the Ducks have been horrible lately, but I've caught onto a pattern.

• For game one, I wrote about how scared I was about Jonathan Goddamn Cheechoo, and he killed us.



• For game two, I wrote nothing, and that didn't help.



• For game three, I wrote about a pattern of 1-goal deficits turning into 3-goal deficits, and the Ducks watched their deficit grow like clockwork.

My problem? I'm way too psychic. And I've been focusing entirely too much on the negative.

Tonight? In the spirit of "the first 3 games are irrelevant in the scheme of an 82-game schedule", I'm instead imagining some good results. Is this the game where the Ducks get goals from their actual goal-scorers*? Is this the game where the Ducks enter the penalty box at a slightly lesser rate**? Is this the game where the Ducks even vaguely resemble a salary-cap maximum team***? Is this the game where Ducks fans get to see what a power play goal-for looks like****? It totally could be!

* Thus far in the Ducks' season, the top two scoring lines have combined for one goal, the bottom two checking lines have combined for five, and the defense has contributed none.

** The Ducks have been shorthanded an average of 11:14 per game through the first three, and have allowed 6 PPGs to offset their 6 total GF.

*** The Ducks are t-27th in the league in terms of goals-for-per-game and 29th in the league in goals-against-per-game.

**** The Ducks are the only NHL team without a power play goal this season.

Feel free to leave your own semi-positive "Is this the game" hope in the comments. Bonus points for extra cynicism!

-------------------------------------------
Also, this is your 4-times-a-year reminder to read your Oilogosphere -- since internet blogging was invented, the Oilers have had the market cornered -- Battle of Alberta, Covered in Oil, mc79hockey, LoweTide, Black Dog Hates Skunks, Irreverent Oil Fans, Oiloblobosphere, Hot Oil, Copper and Blue -- and quite honestly, I am still leaving out some very good ones. Even if you read nothing but Oilers blogs, you'd get a full spectrum of what hockey fandom is all about. Don't tell that to Burke 'n' Lowe, though; I'd hate for my admiration to spill over to that tasty feud.

Prediction: I'm getting my expectations low enough now that this could end up the first game of the year that doesn't end with a proverbial gun in my mouth -- now that's positivity! Ducks 4, Oilers 2. Goals by four guys yet to put a puck in the net: Perry, Getzlaf, Pahlsson, and Kunitz.

Go Ducks? (!) .

Settle Down, Kevin Lowe

Hey, Brian Burke and Kevin Lowe want to eat each other, go to town, I don't care. But this quote pissed me the fuck off:

"Lastly, he's in a pathetic hockey market where they can't get on any page of the newspaper let alone the front page of the sports, so any of this stuff carries on."

I'll list the problems with this statement is list form because it's easy:

1) Anaheim is a good hockey market right now. They were 15th in attendance and 6th in capacity last season. Just because they have a shitty, outdated arena doesn't mean they're a bad hockey market.

2) What newspaper? The LA Times? The OC Register? The Long Beach Press-Telegram? I know the Ducks get twice the coverage the Kings do in the Times, so he can't be talking about it. And the Register... well, I don't get the Register because I don't eat my young but I'm sure they cover the Ducks extensively. And really, do Canadian papers put sports news on the cover of their newspapers? I would probably cancel any subscription I had to a newspaper if they made me turn the page to get the latest body count in Iraq because some Finnish guy signed with my favorite team.

3) Really, man? This is the route you wanna go? Your franchise spent the '90s hanging by a thread and now you want to go around judging other teams? You're the one team in Canada that should have our back, man, because you know what it's like to have people judge you. Don't give into that easy belief that because someone made you feel inferior you have to turn around and judge someone else. Look, Lowe, I know you probably don't respect Burke because he went to college and you played with Wayne Gretzky, but don't resort to junior high bullshit. Burke's a blowhard and a jackass, but he's not an idiot. He made an argument, now defend yourself. You have an argument: you only did what was best for the Oilers and it's not your fault the Flyers panicked and signed Mike Richards to a 5-year deal at $5.75 per. Why don't you say that? Trying to paint Burke as a shitty GM is stupid and you know better.


And trying to tar anywhere in California as a shitty hockey market is fucking bullshit and you damn well know it.

Saying Goodbye to Lubo

RK: Okay, Lubo, here we are. Go on, get out of the car.
Lubo: Voite for Lubo!
RK: Alright, now go.
Lubo: L-Lubo?
RK: This is your home now, Lubo, you'll be free here. There's lots of forwards to play with and you won't be tied down like you were in LA. It's for the best.
*Lubo takes step towards the car
RK: (teary-eyed) Please, Lubo, this isn't easy for me. Just go and be happy.
Lubo: Lubo!
RK: Go on, git! I never liked you anyway! You're too small and you always have a whimsical look on your face!
*Lubo whimpers and runs off
RK: (whispers) I love you.


Like most Dean Lombardi trades, this one left me extremely confused. With most Lombardi trades, though, I'll usually feel better about them an hour or so later; that didn't happen with this one. You know how a kid feels when his best friend moves away? That's how I feel right now. Rationally I'm pissed because Lubo was one of the best players on the team and emotionally I'm pissed because he was the sweetest guy ever.* Lombardi always talks about raising kids to be Kings, and then he turns around and trades the one veteran brought up through the Kings' system? Not to mention that he traded him to Siberia 48 hours before his no-trade clause kicked in. That's harsh.

*Plus, I was going to write a fake interview with Lubo this summer wherein he would claim he runs the Kings and stabbed Sean Avery in the spleen. It needed work but it would have been good stuff. Now you're going to get some half-assed routine about Drew Doughty being fat. Thanks a lot, Dean.

I loved all the little things about Lubo: the way he snuck in the back door to rocket a one-timer on the power play, the surprised look on his face when his teammates congratulated him after a goal, everything. There's an awesome scene in Luc Robitaille's FSN show (the one that features his last game) where Luc's on the team plane and comes upon Pavol Demitra and Lubo playing cards with Craig Conroy and Jeremy Roenick. They talk for a bit and then Lubo says something to Pavol in Slovakian and they both burst out laughing. Nobody knows what they're laughing about though, so Robitaille looks uncomfortable and then just kind of moves on. It cracked me up.

Oh man, he's sticking his little tongue out!

The Kings got two fairly good players back in the deal: Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene. Stoll is a typical Lombardi pick-up, a character guy with a lot of skill that has been sidetracked by injuries (in his case, a concussion). He's got a good shot and can play both power play and penalty kill. He will center either the 2nd or 3rd line, depending on how they decide to use Handzus. Best case scenario: Stoll gets his game back and pots thirty goals while playing with Frolov. Worst case scenario, or what will happen because it's the Kings: he continues to suck and he and Handzus team up to form the worst 2nd center combo in NHL history. Also, Stoll is dating Rachel Hunter, so I guess my dad will have someone to look at during the game. At the very least this means Tom Preissing will have a shot with Tawny Kitean.

Also picked up was Matt Greene, who is a monster. Greene is a big defenseman and offers absolutely no offense. Basically, think Aaron Miller. He takes too many penalties and his lack of offensive skill kills a lot of his worth, but he's what the Kings needed. I don't know who he'll play with because the Kings aren't done with their defense, but he should anchor our penalty kill for a few years to come.

I would still rather have Lubo over those two players, although they do fill a big need for our team. The only way I'll be happy with this is if the Kings turn around and trade for Jay Buowmeester. It's unlikely, but the Kings have been trading for a lot of guys in that 23-25 range and they did draft a number of 20 year-olds this last draft that would replace any prospects we trade. If their plan is to sign Brad Stuart again, I'll flip. A defense consisting of Jack Johnson, Matt Greene, Rob Blake, Brad Stuart, Tom Preissing and Drew Doughty does not fill me with excitement. And it could never replace Lubo.

Poor Lu- whoa, holy shit.

If I could have a quick word with Edmonton fans: look, I don't like you and you have a grudging respect for me, but go easy on Lubo. Don't put a lot of pressure on him just because you're paying him $7 million dollars next year. I know you'll get frustrated because he's small and he'll never work the puck out of the corner, but he means well. He tries hard and he's very sneaky and he and Souray will give you a fantastic power play. Treat him well and make sure he gets plenty of vitamins because if you don't watch him he'll just eat candy and get a tummy ache. Oh, and here's his ear medicine; make sure you give it to him before he goes to bed.

Well, I guess that's it then. I guess I'll leave you with this:



Godspeed you lovable imp.

Trade

Kings trade Lubomir Visnovsky for Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene.

I'll have more tomorrow, but right now I'll just say: fuck.

Western Conference Regulation Record Grid

I've been meaning to put together a stats table to show all the potential western conference playoff participants, similar to the tables I built last year, and here it is. This table shows regulation records (the record at the end of 60 minutes) for the top ten teams in the west playing against the top ten teams in the west, all carrying some level of playoff aspiration. I've turned that regulation record into a winning percentage, and included GF and GA stats as well (note: GF and GA do include OT goals, mostly because I'm lazy). Basically, you can pick a team along the left column and follow it across to see how that team has fared against each of the nine potential future opponents, to see where a particular match-up seems favorable or not.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Some takeaway notes, briefly:

• From the Ducks' perspective, I'm not a huge believer on what this table tells us. A lot of the games used in creating this table were played without Niedermayer and Selanne at first, then Pronger and Perry later. It's tough to draw any hard conclusions on how a more complete team would have fared over the course of a season. Still, it's worth noting that the Ducks have the worst offense of any of these teams (against this opposition), and that even though the Ducks don't rate that well against their likely first round opponent in the Dallas Stars, it's still better than their regular season performance against Minnesota or Vancouver.



• As for winners from this table, it's hard not to like Detroit, San Jose, and Dallas, the three teams that show winning regulation records against the best of the west. Of the three, Detroit dominates the other two, though, and has strong records against nearly all other contenders (except Anaheim and perhaps Nashville). Perhaps Detroit's two main hopes should be that some other team eliminates the Ducks and somehow the Predators avoid finishing eighth, but generally, they've played this field very well.



• Among the teams still fighting for a spot, Calgary probably really wants the sixth seed the most, and Colorado wants to avoid falling to eighth the most. Vancouver appears to be in some trouble; even if they do qualify for the postseason they project to go up against a first round opponent that's dominated them during the regular season.

Anyway, I know that today's supposed to be all pranks and merriment, but I thought I'd throw out a statistical glance at the coming postseason. Read into it what you will (and I'll take any responses in the comments), but I think it offers a quick glance at what opponents each team finds more or less desirable for the prolonged fight to the cup finals. Once the standings gets a little more locked in, I'll delve a bit more into the emotional side; I'm quite new at this "defending" gig, and in that sense, it's a playoff year like I've never experienced before.

Until then, Go Ducks.

Sharks vs Edmonton Oilers photos

Here are a few photos from the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 OT shootout win over the Sharks on Sunday, sorry for the poles in one photo but I thought it would be a different look at the shootout. More photos here.

Had a long discussion with an usher about Dwayne Roloson's style of play in the first period vs his play against the Sharks in the playoffs, and about Edmonton's chances of leapfrogging Phoenix, Nashville and Vancouver. We were directly behind Matheiu Garon, who was banished to the island where visiting goaltenders watch the game. I should have added that the Kings failure to sign Garon was a Pacific Division mistake second only to Anaheim's early Christmas present to Phoenix in Ilya Bryzgalomite.

The Sharks first period against Edmonton was an impressive one, 19 shots on goal and several quality scoring chances. The second period I was at ice level and San Jose came out flying. Within a minute there was a pile of bodies around the Edmonton crease, and an Oiler defenseman tried to push the net off its moorings to regain their composure. The power play unit of Marleau-Thornton-Cheechoo-Campbell-Pavelski could possibly be the best 5-man unit the Sharks have ever iced. Quick, hard passes down low by the forwards, and great puck movement up top by the defenseman created a lot of room for players to get open, but there were not enough point shots on net. More point shots will create more rebounds and more havoc, and the Sharks will start putting up the power play numbers again.

The Edmonton penalty kill was a force in the third period. Three horrible penalties taken in the latter half of the period, a tripping call on Gilbert, a hooking call on Stoll, and a delay of game call on Roloson. A determined effort from a very quick Edmonton penalty kill unit deserves credit for keeping the Sharks off the board. Roloson stoned Joe Thornton on a 2-on-0 in overtime, and then quickly hugged the post to shut down a hard shot from Brian Campbell, who tossed his stick after the play.

Fernando Pisani scored the decisive shootout goal for the Oilers, he froze Nabokov on his forehand, and then took it backhand and lifted it over Nabokov's stick 5-hole. The Edmonton Oilers announcers called the move before he took the shot. Graphic on Versus said that the Oilers are 15-3 in the shootout this year. Tale of tape on this game is about as close as it gets, both teams were only able to score on 5-on-3 power plays, and 3 rounds of the shootout were not enough to decide a winner.

The 11-game winning streak is over for the Sharks, but the points streak is alive and well at 12 games. Prediction tomorrow against Los Angeles: Sharks general manager announces the surprise signing of 68-year old former Chicago Bears head coach Mike Ditka Tuesday morning, and the Ditka-Sharks shut out the Kings 24-0.

Mike Mendoza Canadian National Anthem

Saxophonist Mike Mendoza plays the Canadian National Anthem prior to the Edmonton Oilers game against the San Jose Sharks at HP Pavilion on Thursday, February 14th 2008.

Sharks/Oilers Frozen Gameday

Born and raised in California, I am the first too admit I don't know what cold is. I am the idiot who wears ski jackets and ski pants while travelling to the East Coast. What do I know about cold you ask? I watch Packers games in the snow and shiver while sitting in a 70 degree house. What do our boys encounter in the first game out of the All-Star break? -24 degrees F are you kidding me? This short 2 game Alberta road trip before coming back to the tank for 6 in a row at home. This game being on Versus we have to endure announcers that are not our beloved Randy and Drew. Tonight we get John Forslund, Daryl Reaugh and Bob Harwood calling tonight's game for Versus. (Thanks to Steve Lepore at Kukla's Korner for the info.)

No word on if McLaren is back from his knee surgery a week ago. Coming off 2 wins I would guess Ron Wilson would stick with his lineup from last week as he rarely changes the lineup after a win. Hopefully Cheech can keep up his strong play and it will rub off on Marleau.

Edmonton Burned Pronger's Baby?

Here's a very long, very detailed post by Greg Wyshynski about Chris Pronger's continuing feud with the people of Edmonton. I aggressively don't give a fuck about this, but I figured you people might get a kick out of it. Besides, an enemy of Chris Pronger is a friend of mine.

Kings Gameday: You Could See it Coming

Los Angeles Kings (blargh!) @ Edmonton Oilers (21-21-4, 13th in West)

6:00 PST, FSN West?*

[Earl has a post below about how Pronger and Niedermayer are douche bags or something. I don't know, I just kind of skimmed. Also, do the Ducks ever not play? Jesus.]

Last year, in one of my early posts as your humble Kings correspondent, I wrote this about Mathieu Garon:

"I can already see Garon, in an interview with The Hockey News this time next year, discussing how great it is to be playing good hockey again after all the injuries with the Kings the two previous years. That’ll be the same day that Jason LaBarbera pulls a Shaun Livingston on both knees and when I’ll be sentenced for Dan Cloutier’s murder." [Author's note: Consider yourself lucky, Dan, that you were sent down to Manchester. Yes, very lucky.]

Flash forward to last week, where this was written in something called Canada East Online:

"Garon went 13-10-6 with a 2.66 GAA and .907 save percentage [last year], but it became obvious he'd have to look elsewhere for his opportunity. Enter the Oilers.

'I thought going to LA would be my chance,' Garon said. 'They changed the coach and the GM. I was not the guy any more. I knew I would not get a chance, so it was best for me to get out of there.'"

That's the worst part: I knew this would happen. Mathieu Garon is a very good goalie who tended to get hurt at inopportune times. If we had just re-signed him instead of "Je m'appelle Suck" Aubin, the Kings would be in much better shape. Part of me is happy for Garon because he seems like a good guy, but another part of me wants to just fucking strangle Dave Taylor for that trade 3 summers ago. To recap:

-Kings trade Radek Bonk and Cristobal Huet for Mathieu Garon

-Garon gets two seasons to prove himself, gets hurt twice when he has the starting job wrapped up, and is then let go for nothing

-Huet wins 50 games for the Canadiens and becomes the toast of the town

-Bonk scores 62 points

-Rudy Kelly throws himself off a bridge

***

Don’t expect too much from either Purcell or Harrold tonight (if they play). Remember that they both have a fairly limited upside and they shouldn’t be expected to win games by themselves. Both are older than Kopitar, Johnson, Brown, and O’Sullivan, and there is a reason they’re just getting their shot now. I know, I think they’ll be productive members of the Los Angeles Kings for a few years to come as well, but it may be two years before we see it. Don’t get too excited just yet.

***

Holy shit:

Prediction: Garon plays awesomely and the Kings lose, 3-1. After the game, Garon separates his shoulder lifting his bag and never reclaims the starting job. Goal by O’Sullivan.

*I guess Bob and Jimmy said in their last telecast that they won't be making the Western Canada swing and it's not showing a Kings game on FSN West on my TV's program guide, so the game might not be on local TV tonight. NHL.com, however, says the game will be on. Will the game be on tonight? Dun-dun-dun!

Ducks Gameday—Behindthenet does BoC a solid

Anaheim Ducks (18-15-5, t-7th in west) at Edmonton Oilers (16-18-3, t-12th in west)

I'm not going to write too much about tonight's matchup; you know where to go to read up on that. Instead, I'm going to praise Gabe Desjardins at Behind the Net for his always-solid work aggregating and crunching through NHL data to really help promote the notion of data-driven hockey analysis. In the past, I've talked up his strength-of-opposition and strength-of-teammates metrics; they really help to put a context around a player's 5-on-5 production (for example). This season, he's added lots of other interesting stats; you could spend a solid day looking through the metrics on his site.

One thing that really caught my eye over at BTN's blog, though, was tracking shots and goals from where they are taken on the ice. This is a pretty fascinating new layer of data, and while its accuracy or its usefulness is still being explored, I think it's pretty darn cool that the data is being collected. It may not mean much just yet, but I think it's day is coming.

As an example, I asked Gabe in the comments of his blog whether it would be possible for him to run some shot and goal charts for the BoC teams, specifically on their 4-on-5 penalty kills. Why the PK? Well, just for starters we've observed this year how the Sharks are killing penalties with ease, whereas the Ducks and Kings have struggled in that area. Perhaps by looking at the shot charts side-by-side maybe some aspect might become apparent--some difference in how the different PK units are allowing shots, and which shots are becoming goals.

All this data is pre-Christmas, 4-on-5 only, and just for illustrative purposes.

Anaheim Ducks:
200:28 4-on-5 time, 170 shots against, 28 goals against, 26.87 expected goals against

First off, let's just get a handle on what we're seeing here. I've indicated on the chart where the goalie sits and where the red line is; you'll have to imagine faceoff circles and the rest from there. Every shot that didn't score is indicated on the chart with a blue X, and every goal that was scored is highlighted with a red O, which I re-colored myself.

A lot of what's emerged is fairly intuitive; there seems to be a lot of activity and a lot of goals that cluster right around the goalie. These may be one-timers or rebound shots, but it seems that power play units are working to generate shots from that "danger zone", and the better they seem to generate those shots, the likelier it will be that the PP unit will find success. Also somewhat interesting are shots from distance--they seem to be taken with a lot of frequency, but rarely do they seem to beat the goaltender. Still, you have to say that the point shot does have an effective use; overall, teams still score against Duck penalty-killers with good effectiveness.

Los Angeles Kings:
177:16 4-on-5 time, 189 shots against, 30 goals against, 32.39 expected goals against


Here's the same chart for the L.A. Kings this season, another squad that's struggled to keep the puck out of their net when shorthanded. A lot of the same observations apply, although note how much more vulnerable the Kings' "danger zone" leakage appears to be. That seems like a thing for that unit to maybe focus on defending.

Also a bit strange seems to be bleeding from one side of the ice; it looks as if a lot more goals are being scored on the Kings from the goalie's right side than from the goalie's left, even though the shot counts seem kind of equivalent from both sides. I think this is a question maybe for observant Kings fans. Is this a function of having dangerous PP options playing on one side, or maybe is it a flag that there is a weak defender on one side? Perhaps this is a goalie issue that could be explored, who knows? I'm not really sure what the proper response for a team that notices these trends, but it is worth noting where trouble patterns emerge; addressing them might be the key to improving PK performance.

San Jose Sharks:
170:26 4-on-5 time, 107 shots against, 13 goals against, 16.56 expected goals against


And for contrast, here are the results for a successful penalty kill, courtesy of the Sharks. A large difference seems to come from shot prevention; this chart isn't nearly as dense as the Ducks' or Kings' were. Also, it seems that the Sharks are much more adept at defending the so-called "danger zone"; there's a cluster of activity, but it seems much more controlled and limited. There seems to be a lot more ability to prevent point shots from getting through; this probably contributes a great deal to SJ's success.

At any rate, I don't want to put out any super-strong statements about what the data means or indicates; we're still in a bit of an exploratory phase (certainly feel free to leave your own observations in the comments). Mainly, the thing to take away here is that the data is being collected and even at this stage can be examined in different manpower situations. The consistency of the data may be a bit suspect at this point, but for sure that will improve, as will analysts' ability to incorporate these coordinates into aggregated findings. For today, these charts are interesting and a bit revealing, but probably not very "actionable". Looking to the future, though, I can see where these sorts of charts will become fundamental for coaching analysis. We are probably on the brink of a new age in hockey understanding, and I'm glad there's guys out there like Gabe that can put it in a form that idiots like me can toy with.

Thanks again, Gabe.

Prediction: Crap. No Pahlsson tonight, or for any of this road trip. I won't be able to watch this game tonight; I'll be at my mom's birthday dinner. Still, somehow the Ducks claw their first victory from the Oil tonight in their last meeting of the season, 4-2. Goals by Bertuzzi, Weight, Pahlsson, Getzlaf, and Beauchemin.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Oh, you Oilers

Anaheim Ducks (12-10-4, t-4th in west) at Edmonton Oilers (10-14-1, t-14th in west)

I made this poster earlier this summer, but it was a pretty flimsy concept: "Hm, doesn't the name 'Penner' look kind of like the name 'Potter'?" It's not the strongest graphic to ever make its way to this blog, but considering I got nothing else ready today, it seems more than appropriate.

Dustin Penner's counting stats thus far this season have been fairly mediocre: 25 gp, 4 g, 7 a, -1. Of course, it might not be that surprising if you took a look at his last 25 games in a Duck uniform (mostly playoffs): 25 gp, 4 g, 5 a, +3. That Anaheim stretch includes Penner going scoreless throughout the month of May, something that's likely to be repeated this year unless the Oilers get some magical boost in the standings.

It's not really that Penner's useless on the ice, but he's got to be played very carefully—he's a big-bodied passenger, one who will neither be very useful in backchecking nor will be the catalyst in the offensive end. He's incredibly strong along the boards and somewhat capable with the puck, but in terms of his overall contribution, it is pretty reliant on his linemates' ability to do most of the skating, defense, and puckhandling for him, and is best utilized against pretty soft competition. These drawbacks are pretty overlookable when the big guy plays for league minimum; however with a huge paycheck in a salary-capped league, the flaws get a lot more scrutiny (see also: Bertuzzi).

Often-ignored upside: Dustin Penner kills terrorists!
I don't really want to get too critical of Oiler management (the Oilosphere has that more than covered), but the one aspect that strikes me the most about the Penner offer sheet: if I'm a GM that has publicly admitted his team's inability to attract UFAs, I wouldn't be in the business of driving up RFA salaries at the expense of UFA salaries. Sure, with the CBA being what it is, I'm sure eventually the stigma around offer sheets would have eventually disappeared, but still, it is significant that Kevin Lowe did trigger this market shift. Probably the best thing Edmonton has going for it is a solid group of young, entry-level talent; jumping the offer-sheet gun seems only to paint a dark future for keeping it together. And heck, thanks to Lowe getting desperate in the Pronger deal and the Penner deal, even a bottom finish by the $50M-payroll, injury-plagued Oilers won't yield them anything—the Ducks hold the Oiler's 1st round pick, while Lowe will pick based on Anaheim's finish.

To be fair, nothing really should be judged on the Penner offer sheet until year three or so; the five-year contract was more a long-term gamble than a short-term one, and it's entirely possible that Hemsky and friends learn to use the big body of Penner effectively or that he improves on his weaknesses and gets much more worth his salary (he still is rather new at this league). Also, it will be better gauged after we see what Burke does with his picks—I've seen little evidence so far that Burke is a draft wizard; at least nobody he's drafted so far seems willing to make the big league roster.

Anyway, I'm getting rambly; feel free to offer your Penner-thoughts or Edmonton-reaction in the comments. Meanwhile, from the Oilblog angle (one that you have to respect--nobody's had a fall from grace like they have), Covered in Oil put together a nice Oiler-drinking game for tonight; I especially like the suggestion in the comments: "Drink every time Dustin Penner looks tired."

Prediction: Ducks 3, Oilers 2. The CinO-reading crowd gets filthy drunk. Goals by McDonald, Pahlsson, and Getzlaf.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday: Round-by-Round BryzgaLove

Phoenix Coyotes (9-10-0, 1 point ahead of L.A.) at Anaheim Ducks (10-9-3, 2 points behind S.J.)

When I reflect on Ilya Bryzgalov, of course I think of the affable goofball, one who is unable to get through a single interview without me falling off my couch laughing. But there is of course another side to the guy—the capable netminder who's stepped in each of the last two playoff years to save the Ducks when Giguere was suddenly unavailable. In total, Breezy has a 9-5 playoff record in 926 minutes, with a stellar 1.68 GAA and a .937 sv%.

To put that into perspective, he's got more playoff wins and minutes than Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Rick Dipietro, Tomas Vokoun, Vesa Toskala, Andrew Raycroft, and three-time cup finalist Martin Gerber, just to name some more expensive options out there.

But let's take a look back at how he got there:

2006 Round One: Calgary Flames
2-1, 3 GA on 93 shots in 226 minutes. 0.80 GAA, .968 sv%

Breezy's start in this series was a complete surprise, because Giguere had just beaten Calgary in the last regular season game just four days before. Somehow, though, Giguere had suffered a hip injury and was a shocking scratch for G1, and Bryz lost his debut 2-1 nearly 10 minutes into overtime. Giguere came back for the next four starts, winning two, but clearly was not recovered—he ended the series with a 3.87 GAA and a .845 sv%. So with the team facing elimination, Bryzgalov started the last two games, allowing only one G6 goal and silencing the Red Mile in G7.

2006 Round Two: Colorado Avalanche
4-0, 4 GA on 121 shots in 256 minutes. 0.94 GAA, .967 sv%

Sweeping Colorado was an incredible feat in of itself; in 25 series since moving from Quebec, the Avalanche had won at least two games in every best-of-seven they had played in. To add to that, Bryzgalov kept the high-flying Avs off the scoreboard until G3, setting the post-1930 playoff shutout streak record at 249:15, more than four regulations without a goal-allowed. It was really a huge win for the franchise, as it meant that the Ducks had toppled the typical "big three" in the west (along with Detroit and Dallas in '03), a fairly incredible triple-feat. You can see some more fun facts about that series in my second-ever BoC post.

2006 Round Three: Edmonton Oilers
0-3, 9 GA on 71 shots in 177 minutes. 3.06 GAA, .873 sv%

The stats line on Breezy looks bad here, but really mostly this is a result of a crazy third period in G3. In G1 and G2 Bryzgalov limited the Oilers to 2 goals in each game, but on the other end the Ducks only managed 1 goal in each game. In the 3rd period of G3, with Anaheim trailing 1-0, things exploded on both ends. By the end of regulation the scoreboard would read EDM 5 - ANA 4, and Bryzgalov's postseason was over. Giguere came back and won a G4, but lost when the Ducks were held to one goal again in G5.

Yeah, that series was a tragedy, as the Ducks lost a lot of momentum with the long layoff after sweeping Colorado. However, I do believe I was the first person to predict Anaheim's cup championship when I wrote this drunk blog-title on 3/27/06: "I didn't say Ducks in seven; I said Ducks in '07!!!"

2007 Round One: Minnesota Wild
3-1, 8 GA on 113 shots in 230 minutes. 2.09 GAA, .929 sv%

Another playoff year, another surprising non-start by Giguere. Here Bryzgalov re-established his clutch postseason play, outdueling Backstrom and the Wild through the first three games of the series, all one-goal wins. He got pulled for good in G4 (through no real fault of his own), and only made one relief appearance after that. Not only was Breezy crucial for advancing past the first round, but in the larger scope of things, how important was it that Giguere was able to deal with his family issues and get a fresh late start in the playoffs?

------------------------------------
I guess my main point is that it's wrong to underestimate the contributions of Breezy; I don't know whether the Ducks would have advanced past the first round in either of the last two playoffs without him. He was the victim of a logjam behind $6 M Giguere, and as a result the Phoenix Coyotes got an absolute gift off the waiver wire (see my latest Fanhouse cartoon for a visualization of that).

It's fair to condemn Burke for not getting anything in return for the valuable netminder, but it is true that the trade market for goalies is fairly dead, and I doubt Burke is well-liked enough in the GM community to get any trade favors. So far, Jonas Hiller seems to be an adequate replacement, so I don't think it's hurting the team any, but we'll have to see what happens if Giguere pulls up lame for another playoff round.

I'm actually kind of expecting Hiller to get the start today. I have no inside information or anything, but I read Carlyle as a guy who won't push the "Giguere v. Bryzgalov" storyline just for its own sake. Besides, it's important that Hiller get a start fairly soon to show why Breezy was suddenly expendable, and a home game against Phoenix may be just the ticket. That said, I'm fairly mediocre at predicting Carlyle's moves; don't put much stock in my predictions, either.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Coyotes 1. Hiller makes good on his backup start; goals by Beauchemin, Bertuzzi, Pahlsson, and Sutherby.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: Who's Up For Some Libel?

Los Angeles Kings (5-6, 3rd in Pacific) vs. Edmonton Oilers (4-6, 5th in Northwest)

7 PST, FSN West and CBC

Edmonton's Town Square.

Edmonton is a sad little town. Oilers fans are probably the most dedicated fans in the NHL because really, what else are they going to do? Edmonton kind of strikes me as that shitty kid in your 5^th grade class who smelled and kept sand bees in his desk but you went to his birthday party anyway because he had a bounce house and a Batman impersonator. “C’mon guys, I have North America’s largest mall! And do you like festivals? We got festivals coming out the ass! Please hang out with me?” I like to think that they had Chris Pronger show up on a specific day where they had the Whore Festival or something and then showed him the mall to get him a sign. Then, a week later…

Chris: Hey, Raffi, what is there to do around here?

Raffi Torres: Have you seen our mall? It’s the largest in the North America!

Chris: Yeah, that was cool, where do you think I’ve been for the last week? But I need something else to do. Any nighlife?

Raffi: Night… life?

Chris: Umm, yeah, you know, dancing, women, something like that.

Raffi: We have the Festival of Trees coming pretty soon!

(silence…)

Chris: I’ve made a huge mistake.

I don’t like Chris Pronger, but I can’t really blame him for (allegedly) having an affair; what else was he going to do?

Mayor.

This is just me spouting off from my awesome California perspective (you wouldn’t believe how warm it’s been recently, it’s like having a fireplace going all the time), but Edmonton seems to have a real inferiority complex. They’re not relevant like Toronto, they don’t have history or arrogance like Montreal and Ottawa, they don’t have a film industry like Vancouver (stop taking our jobs, assholes), and they’re overshadowed in their own province by Calgary. I was in Calgary this summer and asked a Calgarian if he ever goes to Edmonton. He derisively snorted, “Why the fuck would I want to go to Edmonton?” That was amazing to me. That’s like a murderer refusing to share a prison cell with a child molester!

The Edmonton Oilers are doing their best impression of their city this season, in that they suck. Their fans like to pretend that they’re a tough, gritty team, but they really just don’t have that much talent outside of Ales Hemsky. (I really like Hemsky, though.) They overpaid in the off-season for a defenseman who can’t play defense (he’s hurt now) and a forward whose best skill is his ability to grow a playoff beard. (Seriously, it looked like seal fur.) It's almost like Penner's goals last year were the result of his linemates... nah, no way Kevin Lowe fucks up like that, right? Their one goaltender is the biggest whiner in the NHL and their other goaltender is such a tragic figure that Oedipus thinks, “Wow, that guy has a rough life.” Finally, their coach… well, their coach was the last guy in the NHL to not wear a helmet, so I refuse to say anything bad about him.

Haha.

So yeah, that’s Edmonton: the city is boring and the hockey team sucks. But hey, the economy is thriving, right? Pretty soon, you’ll be right up there with Columbus, Ohio in cities Los Angeles doesn’t care about.

Prediction: Kings win. Maybe not the game, but they live in L.A., so they still win.

Sleek's Poetry Corner, Part 3

(Previous Poetry Corners: Francois Beauchemin, Samuel Pahlsson)

Well, seeing as we still have a day or two until this Penner offer sheet gets resolved, my imaginary therapist figured it's probably best for me to deal with this offer sheet situation through some relaxing poetry, something I haven't really broken out since November last year. I'm a bit rusty, but hopefully still relevant:

Ode to Dustin Penner

D id you hear the story of mad Kevin Lowe?
U nable to sign anyone—he’s got money to blow.
S o far this offseason he’s felt quite maligned,
T urns out that Nylander hadn’t quite signed,
I tching for players, Lowe then tried for Vanek,
N ow that he’s failed, though, he’s starting to panic.

P erhaps, though, this offer sheet will go through,
E specially by overpaying a million or two,
N ever mind that Penner’s had Lupul-ish stats,
N or that his career doesn’t have many at-bats.
E dmonton with Penner will be somewhat stronger,
R egrettably, though: he’ll never be as worthwhile as Pronger.

As a Ducks fan, it is sort of strange to know how to feel about the Oilers: on the one hand, they do represent the last team to knock the Ducks out of the playoffs; on the other, they certainly lost out in the Pronger "deal", and now they are offering three draft picks for the right to increase Penner's salary tenfold? I really don't know whether to hate them, pity them, or just flat out thank them.
Waa! Gimme back your semi-star!

This of course is a pictoral tribute to my previous Pronger post:
"Waa! Gimme back my superstar!"

A few more thoughts on Dustin Penner

I went home last night to think through this Penner offer sheet a bit more, but I don't think my conclusion has changed. Here are some stats I've gathered that indicate that Penner should not be Anaheim's highest paid forward next year:

• Of all the Ducks that played more than 15 games this year (regular season + playoffs), Penner had the worst even-strength goals-against average on the team, and he wasn't even facing the opposition's best scorers.


• On the power play, Penner was 7th on the team in minutes and 9th on the team in scoring. His PP points-per-hour were the lowest for any forward not on the Pahlsson line.


• In his NHL career (reg. season + playoffs), Penner has scored a total of 69 points over 135 games. Five other Ducks surpassed that points total last year alone.


• Despite the Ducks' success in the playoffs, it is interesting to note that Dustin Penner was shut out completely for the month of May (10 games).

All that said, I don't predict Burke very well and I don't think I'd crucify him if he decided to match. It certainly would stretch the budget thin, but despite his flaws, Penner finished second on the team in regular-season goals as a rookie, and certainly should improve his game in the coming years, especially if Bertuzzi can effectively tutor him. Next summer, re-signing Getzlaf and Perry will be a pain regardless of where Penner plays this year, but Burke has shown an ability to ditch salary capably when he's needed to.

If Burke does match, then Penner and Bertuzzi would represent the team's top two salaried forwards, which is strange since neither is naturally assured a top-line spot. I'd probably have to use this nonsense price-per-pound metric to make sense of the salary structure:

Player	Avg. Salary	Weight*	Price per pound
Todd Bertuzzi	$4,000,000	242 lbs.	$16,529
Dustin Penner	$4,250,000	243 lbs.	$17,490
Andy McDonald	$3,333,333	185 lbs.	$18,018
Chris Pronger	$6,250,000	220 lbs.	$28,409
Mathieu Schneider	$5,625,000	191 lbs.	$29,450
J.S. Giguere	$6,000,000	200 lbs.	$30,000
Scott Niedermayer	$6,750,000	200 lbs.	$33,750

* Player weights taken from NHL.com
So I dunno, my take is still that Burke should take the picks and let the Oilers pay Penner, but I don't feel as strongly about it as I did yesterday. All offseason, I have been excited to see the first instance where Pronger throws a snapshot through a Penner-and-Bertuzzi 485-pound double-screen, so maybe that's clouding my judgment some.

In any event, I still should poke some fun at the L.A. Times online edition, who added a silly picture-question to their Penner story:
Uh, nice proofreading, guys, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Francois Beauchemin stays...