Ducks Gameday—Sleek starts a campaign

Florida Panthers (4-8-1, 15th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (9-6-1, 3rd in west)
The truth about cats and birds.

I don't have anything to say about tonight's matchup against the Cats, but I do want to recommend The Litter Box, a Panthers-themed hockey blog that I enjoy thoroughly. Whale4Ever mixes his hockey updates with plenty of awesome images and plenty of snark, and I'm much more pro-Cat thanks to his efforts. Rock on, dude.

Instead, I wanted to ride the coattails of the campaign fever that's been taking over BoC, between Mike Chen's push for Seto/Gooch to the All-Star Game and Rudy Kelly's Doughty for the Calder Trophy movement that's just picking up steam. Well, just because I'm apolitical and anti-voting doesn't mean that I don't care about important issues, and there's certainly one movement I'd like to throw my negligible weight behind. As a bonus, it's not even anything I have to convince you readers to do—the primary audience for this message is for just one person only: Brian Burke.

C'mon, Burkie, you know that Sammy would re-sign you.
As you know, Brian Burke is probably headed elsewhere next year, and I've already stated that he's got my blessing—at least he's left the team in a flexible enough salary position next year that a replacement GM won't be cap-cramped to start the new job. Here's who the Ducks currently have under salary for next year, with everyone else a free agent:

Forwards: Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Selanne, Carter, Ryan + some Bertuzzi money
Defensemen: Pronger
Goalies: Giguere, Hiller

Combined, it comes to some $32.5 M, which is a bit pricy, but at least some expensive positions are pre-filled (goaltending, scoring forwards, top d-man). Well, over the next few weeks I plan on coming up with Burke's Bucket List: a list of items I'd like to see Burke do before hitting "greener pastures" next summer.

First and foremost is re-signing Sammy Pahlsson, who of course I could write volumes about (as we'll see once this campaign really gets rolling), but for now, let's just focus on the penalty killing. Since Burke took over the team, the Ducks have taken strange pride in their ability to take penalties, and Pahlsson has quietly shouldered the brunt of that. Since the lockout (regular season only), Sammy has played nearly 1,103 shorthanded minutes, which is the seventh highest total in the league behind Bouwmeester, Phillips, Lidstrom, Havelid, Chara, and Keith -- all defensemen. His total is 222 more minutes than the next highest forward, Ottawa's Chris Kelly (note: this was a hasty study just looking at just the top 90 minute-getters for each season, but I think it's correct).

So Burke, you owe it to Ducks fans, Ducks players, and especially to Sammy himself -- four more years, dude. I'm not even going to make a recommendation on dollars; whatever it takes is fine by me -- even if it's an overpayment, we still probably owe Sammy for the harsh service he's endured for the past four years.

So anyway, that's the start of my campaign; more to come in future posts. Feel free to lend your support in the comments.

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More Tragedy in the Oilogosphere: You'll of course recall last month's incident between DMFB and the Oilers pressbox that led to Dave's departure from hockey blogging. Well, now the damage is doubled. Mike W, another CiO contributor and inspiration for my hockey blogging has likewise decided to give up his posting, and again, I am crushed by the news.

Mikey, please keep visiting, and trust me, I'll post anything you draw. And don't give up the Chamber of Comics -- it's sheer awesomeness, at least the parts that Internet Explorer will let me see.

I would be remiss if I didn't link to this -- pretty much the best thing any hockey blogger has ever done, ever.

* * *

And lastly, part two of my interview with Tom L. and Tapeleg from The Rink Podcast has now been posted, and this time it's Sleek from start to finish. Lots covered there, from some philosophy of what this blog is all about to remeniscing on the 2003 Cup run, and some follow-up thoughts about Paul Kariya. Enjoy!

Prediction: Ducks 3, Cats 1. Goals by Kunitz, Pahlsson (shorthanded, I'm sure), and Carter.

Go Ducks.

How to kill a hockey fan

I have to run to meet up for the game tonight, but this absolutely sucks. The Oilers brass, in an effort to give their pressbox the charm of a low-security prison, have not only prevented CiO's Dave from not only liveblogging from that lofty perch (which he seemed willing enough to do when condescendingly lectured), but have basically ruined the will of one of the Oilogosphere's faithful to even root for the team.

I haven't thought this through very well, but basically, Goddamn it.

Wow. One of the legends hangs them up

I didn't see this coming at all, but the infamous Jes Gőlbez, founder and propietor of Hockey Rants (plus a better contributor to Fanhouse than I am), has decided to hang up the ol' blogger skates and become an everyday fan again.

I don't even know what to say, other than definitely Hockey Rants was one of the inspirations for this blog, that Jes was one of the real pioneers in hockey blogging, and despite his modesty, we're a worse off blogosphere without him.

Good luck in whatever you do in the future, Jes. Don't be afraid to drop in sometime in the comments here, and no matter what happens, we'll always have the memories.

More Number-Crunching with Scott

I'm in a bit of a rush today, but I did want to throw down a few more numbers around Scott Niedermayer's return to the lineup last year, even though he apparently doesn't need to give Brian Burke a retirement decision until July 1st now. I also made Burke's deadline the topic of this week's PuckToon, although I certainly could have drawn Scott a bit better -- in my cartoon he is being played by Adrien Brody.

Here's a table that shows the main five non-Niedermayer defensemen, and their even-strength performance before and after Scott's December debut:

Even-Strength Plus-Minus Before & After Scott Niedermayer

(click on image to enlarge)You'll note that in terms of even-strength play, inserting Scott at the top of the Anaheim blueline had a huge impact on the outscoring success of three players in particular -- Frenchie Beauchemin, Chris Pronger, and Sean O'Donnell.

For Pronger and O'Donnell, I think the improvement mostly stems from the sharing of tough minutes, no longer being the only shutdown option on the blueline. Really Scott's return enabled the team structure to go back to what worked so well for them in their 2007 cup run: a Norris defenseman covering most of the critical minutes, while a third pairing cleaned up on easy minutes.

It's a bit odd that Schneider and Huskins saw their outscoring productivity drop post-Niedermayer, but it wasn't a huge difference, and with Huskins in particular it could be attributed to additional even-strength minutes, freeing the superstar d-men to also manage the special teams minutes. While their numbers are very solid, it's important to remember that this system used to work with Huskins and Dipenta, who is roughly $5M cheaper than Schneidermayer.

I did want to focus a bit on Francois Beauchemin's play, however, who has spent nearly his entire career letting Scott cover his ass. You can see that Frenchie in particular struggled without Scott (and was redeemed upon Scott's return), and I think a lot of that stems from the bad habits that developed under Scott's tutelage. I've drawn a little schematic to the right to demonstrate this.

Normally, when a puck gets dumped behind two defensemen, it's likely a 50-50 split which defenseman will go retrieve the puck, depending on what side of the net the puck is directed. For Scott and Frenchie, though, they've developed something like a 80-20 split, where Beauchemin gets only the very close dump-ins and expects his fleet-footed partner to gather the rest. I remember watching a Scott-less Beauchemin very carefully in the opening 34 games, and to my eyes I could spot this happening to poor spoiled Frenchie -- he was so used to not retrieving pucks that he'd often leave his defensive partner with silly responsibilities that only a guy like Niedermayer could make look effortless.

I'm not blaming Beauchemin for anything, really -- if my back was always covered I'm sure I'd develop bad habits also, but that's another reason I really want Scott to return; he not only helps other defensive pairs manage their minutes better but also carries bad-habit Beauchemin into respectable results. Someday Frenchie is going to have to re-learn his puck responsibilities when paired with an average partner, but I don't want it to happen this year.

So that's a bit more on Scott's roster impact, at least at even strength. I'll close with a lame analogy, mainly designed to incorporate a crazy e-mail image that my dad forwarded to me. Scott's so valuable on the ice that putting him at the top of a lineup makes an ugly dude like Albert Einstein look like a beautiful blonde like Marilyn Monroe:

Step away from your screen to see some crazy-ass magic eye effect.
Insanity. Go Ducks.

Sleek's 2nd Annual Anti-Retirement Plea

Well, it's time I got down to business: Just like last summer, Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne stand undecided as to whether they will retire or not. Just like last summer, Scott is under contract while Teemu is an unrestricted free agent. Unlike last summer, though, Brian Burke has given them a draft-day deadline to make their commitments.

Let's open this discussion with a statsy look at the 2007-08 Ducks season, broken down into four segments, with explanations below:

Segment	GP	Record	Win%	GF - GA = GD	PP - PK
1	34	15-15-4	.500	2.4 - 2.8 = -0.4	15.5% - 78.8%
2	22	12-7-3	.614	2.3 - 2.0 = +0.3	17.2% - 87.4%
3	17	13-3-1	.794	2.7 - 1.6 = +1.1	17.3% - 86.4%
4	15	9-6-0	.600	2.2 - 2.5 = -0.3	20.3% - 79.5%

Segment 1 is the first 34 games of the season played without Niedermayer or Selanne. It is a bit skewed by travel, however, as it opens with a six games in five cities in twelve nights stretch where the Ducks flew 11,667 miles, which is pretty far even for an actual duck. It is also skewed because it featured 17 games of Mark Mowers in a scoring role, which was predictably awful (and frankly, contributed to the trading of Andy Mac). The Segment 1 team was fairly mediocre, with some obvious excuses. The penalty kill was atrocious, with no real excuses.

Segment 2 marks the return of Scott Niedermayer, which sparked a phenomenal turnaround for the Ducks. This segment is a bit skewed because it ends with the infamous "Six Games of Suck", when the Ducks scored only five goals in six straight losses after starting the new Niedermayer era 12-2-2. Still, for the most part the team stats were vastly improved, especially the defense and the penalty-killing.

Segment 3 marks the return of Teemu Selanne, who at least saw an end to that offensive drought. This is the stretch that I really turn to when I want to defend against naysayers who think that the moves Brian Burke made last year were shit. If you look at Segments 2 and 3, it's a top-notch team, and Scott and Teemu were probably the two best players over that stretch. Burke certainly had to jump through hoops to enable their returns, but it’s tough to argue with these results, at least.

Segment 4 begins with the first game of Chris Pronger's suspension, and includes the short postseason. This is a sort of sloppy cut, because the Ducks were able to go 7-2 to end the regular season, but Pronger's absence did I think sort of derail the team in preparing for its cup defense. This segment also signifies the injury to Corey Perry, which was also a huge factor and occurred just a few games before. I probably shouldn't have included the playoff games, but they did feature both Niedermayer and Selanne.

I apologize if I've over-explained these segments, but it was a complicated year. Last season's Ducks had lots of lineup variations and strange storylines, which is a far cry from the cup-winning year. That year, stability was the norm: eight of the top ten Ducks forwards played in all 103 games. Still, I did want to break out these segments to make a few quick points regarding Scott, Teemu, their importance to the Ducks, and the ugly monster known as retirement.

1. Scott and Teemu certainly can still play, contribute, and win. They were probably the two most impressive Ducks to me last year, both in sheer talent and in their ability to fix a bleeding lineup. I think I’m going to do a separate post about the contributions of each of them, but here’s the gist: by inserting talent at the top of the lineup, defensemen and forwards were able to fall into more logical roles, and the Ducks’ performance improved dramatically.

Even more so, I'd add that their delayed seasons weren't the problem at all with the Ducks’ early exit last year. It certainly hurt when Andy Mac and Breezy were squeezed out, but I'd argue that the delayed seasons by Niedermayer and Selanne helped the Ducks' chances of repeating. It enabled a roster to be assembled by the postseason that probably wasn't affordable for a full 82-game schedule.

Of the two, I’d argue that just like last summer, the retirement decision of Niedermayer means more to the success of next year’s team. You can read through my Mr. Incredible post to see some of the statistical impact of his return, but the difference between a one-Norris team and a two-Norris team is incredible; two years ago Pronger vastly improved a Niedermayer-led blueline, and last year Scott returned the favor. I don’t mean to undersell the importance of Teemu, a master in the offensive end and on the power play, but if I had to pick one player to return, it’d be Scott.

2. I don’t think either player retires this week, but I’m an optimist. I have no insider information, and I know a lot of Ducks fans have different theories, but I just keep coming back to this fact: here are two guys who had something like six months to get off the retirement fence last year, and neither one could make the call to end their careers early. Why should I expect that their inability to retire has changed, especially given their excellent play last season?

I know that squeezing them into this year’s budget will be a hurdle, but I think both players have a strong sense of their on-ice importance to the Ducks, and I suspect we’ll see both re-assume their roles for training camp.

3. If Scott does not retire, it’s time to move Schneider. He was my first choice to be shipped out when Scott unretired last year, as it didn’t really make sense to keep both Scott and his apparent replacement, especially at their salary levels. I don’t want to overly knock “Schneidermayer”, who even took home some wayward Norris Trophy votes for his easy-minute dominance, but here’s the reality:

Giguere is making $6M, and Pronger and Niedermayer combine for another $13M, and assuming they’re all willing to play, none of them are going anywhere. Schneider’s additional $5.625M salary commitment becomes excessive at that point, because frankly, there’s not that many more minutes available for him to earn or exceed his dollar value. Instead, that money is needed to shore up the forward ranks, both in paying Getzlaf and Perry’s raises, as well as finding some scratch to pay UFA Selanne.

In a lot of ways, the Ducks are painted into a corner in what they can do this offseason—if Niedermayer and Selanne are in next year’s plans, there are more salary commitments than the Ducks can afford, and we may see Brian Burke get trade-active on draft day (“I’ll trade you the rest of that sandwich for Todd Bertuzzi.”). Still, I’m pretty excited for what next year’s squad can do, in what might be the swan song for the Niedermayer-and-Pronger Ducks. I still can’t believe how fortunate we’ve been to see these two different-style all-stars patrol the blue line the last couple of years, and if there’s one more shot at seeing it, I’m fully aboard.

More stats-crunching and salary-talking to come as these retirement decisions become known, but for now, Go Ducks.

The Tough Swede

Three stories to commemorate Mattias Norstrom's retirement (warning: link in Swedish):

-My favorite Matty Norstrom story occurred when he went down to block a shot on a penalty kill and took it directly in the knee. He got up slowly, using his stick to support his body, and began to head to the bench in obvious pain. The puck didn't clear the zone, however, and the other team still had possession. Norstrom stopped and went back to his position, limping all the way. He was out there for another 30 seconds until he finally got a hold of the puck and iced it, then finally headed to the bench. That was tough.

-My second favorite Matty Norstrom story occurred when he took a puck to the mouth, again on a penalty kill. He collapsed and the whistle was blown to stop the play. The trainer headed out onto the ice but Matty suddenly jumped up, blood pouring from his mouth. He threw his stick into the boards, not because he was in pain but seemingly because he was annoyed that he had to leave the game for a few moments. He brushed past the trainer and went straight to the locker room. That was tough.

-The story that best exemplifies Norstrom happened after their bewildering 11-game losing streak at the end of the 2003-04 season. (I don't want to talk about it.) Norstrom didn't live in LA; he went home to Sweden at the end of every season and it was clear that he truly loved it there. Still, he stayed behind that off-season to work with the Kings, to make sure they didn't collapse like that again. A reporter asked Norstrom what he had been planning to do that off-season and Norstrom replied that he was going to build a deck at his home.

These stories are why I love Matty Norstrom. He's a guy that blocks shots, leads teams and builds decks. He's a guy that gave his captaincy to Luc Robitaille during his last home game. He's a guy that offered his captaincy to Rob Blake when he rejoined the team because he thought it was right. He's a guy that would retire at the age of 36 because he knew that his best days were behind him and it was time to start his second life. He was tough but never dirty and in a weird way you would almost describe his play as "honorable." On a rational level, I was glad the Kings traded Matty to the Dallas Stars because he had a big contract and we got a 1st-round pick out of it; still, there is no denying that he will always be one of my favorite players. Here's hoping you finally get a chance to build that deck, Matty.

Great hockey un-retirements

Unless you suffered from a 24-hour coma, you've probably heard the news that Brett Favre retired from the game of football.

The first thing I did after I learned the news from Satan Skip Bayless and the WWL crew was send my buddy a text message that compared Favre to Tupac (faking his [football] death, not having a blood feud with an obese East Coast rival).

Not soon after, my thoughts turned to the great hockey un-retirements...which made me realize just how much more I have to learn about hockey history.*

In fact, I'd like to make an open challenge to NHL history guru Joe Pelletier to educate us young 'uns about the sure-to-be myriad hockey returns I don't know about. But for the sake of brevity, let me run briefly through the ones that come to mind and give each one a snarky rating at the end.

The near-simultaneous Teemu and Niedermayer de-tirements

Obviously since these "returns" happened just this year, we won't know where each reemergence ranks in hockey history until the playoffs take place. But I think I speak for non-Ducks fans everywhere when I call these returns "glorified vacations." Or, lame.

Rating: Somewhere between the trade-enforced return of Keith Van Horn and whenever oblivious 80's teen movie parents return from their vacation early to stumble upon their children's massive keg party.

Saku Koivu defeats cancer

There's a lot to like about Koivu, but most of all you really have to marvel at the guy's resiliency. If it weren't for the fact that Mario Lemieux won a friggin' Hart Trophy while recovering from chemo therapy, I think Koivu would get more credit for his stunning recovery. I also recall a player coming back from cancer in the late '90s, but his name escapes me. I'm definitely going to kick myself for forgetting his name.
Rating: A partial Lance Armstrong.

Mario Lemieux's return

Has there been a more special return, considering their run to the Eastern Conference Finals and the fact that both Jagr and Lemieux were in the top-3 in Hart Trophy voting that year? Of all the experiences in my life, I think that playoff/regular season run might be the moment I will never be able to judge objectively.

Rating: Jordan returning from baseball...and the world deleting any memory of his time wearing a Wizards jersey.

Gordie Howe's 5 million returns

The Gordie Howe hat trick might be one of Howe's lasting legacies, but the guy had more hockey lives than a cat. Any time you see some boxer keep coming back or witness some legend foolishly trying to rekindle the magic of the past, just point to Howe.

He played on a line with his SONS!

Rating: No comparison. Also, doesn't he sort of look like Chris Cooper in that photo? Gordie Howe kicks ass. He might be hockey's Ditka.

* I would like to mention that I didn't forget Ken Dryden, who might be the only hockey player to ever leave the sport early...for his education. If you consider yourself a good hockey fan and even slightly enjoy reading, "The Game" is absolutely required reading. This is non-negotiable.

Finnish Flashback

I don't have time today to write an excellent post on this subject yet, but I did make a nice graphic. Anyways, per TSN, Teemu Selanne has come to terms with the Ducks on a contract for the remainder of the season and should be re-joining the team this week.

There's probably two major points I want to bring up, for starters, and I'll delve a little more into these on later posts:

• First off, in terms of salary cap management, the delayed season starts for Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne do wonders for Anaheim's postseason roster; quite frankly the Ducks should ice a pricier playoff team than they could have afforded for an entire regular season. If I were a rival fan, I'd probably be pissed. I mean, it's all well within the rules of the CBA (as Oiler fans loved to bring up during criticisms of the Dustin Penner offer sheet, or Devils fans with the Alexander Mogilny demotion), but it still was an advantage for Anaheim only—neither player was considering any other teams, it seems. And even if other teams wanted to engineer such a cap trick to their own advantage, it seems unlikely that they'd be able to pull it off with two such future hall-of-famers and difference-makers. I'm not really ready to put Brian Burke up for GM-of-the-year yet (he got a clear advantage in Scott & Teemu's one-team focus), but it is still very impressive the way he was able to manage salaries and keep availability for both players, even to the ridiculous point where the Ducks will ice both players and their offseason replacements.



• Even though I expect rival fans to be irrationally bitter about this, there will still be valid complaints about what this means for the integrity of the league and its regular season. While everything that's transpired has been CBA-legitimate and seems sincere, any time the league's best players are voluntarily not playing in regular season games, that's bad news—even if it does end up serving the player and team's playoff interests. Even though I believe both players were genuinely considering retirement (as opposed to just milking a CBA loophole), the fact remains that the retirement loophole has now been explored and demonstrated; should the Ducks succeed this postseason it will be very interesting to see if any other player or team tries to mimic this formula, and if so, whether the league will act to try to curb it.

So, good for the Ducks' cap situation and bad for the league. And really, before we go claiming how successful the semi-retirement strategy is for a team, we really should see how the Ducks end up finishing this season and playoffs; a lot of people see the roster upside here without really recognizing the desperate straits the Ducks were in before the first of their wafflers came home. It's still going to be a tight points battle down the western conference stretch, one that perhaps a full-year Ducks squad might have been able to avoid, but at least now the Ducks have two more superweapons in their arsenal.

Feel free to comment on either of these issues in the comments, or if you like, tell me what your fully-healthy Anaheim forward lines would look like with a dressed Selanne (and Pahlsson).

A Scanner Dorkily: Sketches on Selanne

Brian Burke: "I told [Selanne's] agent, if he makes any decision before the All-Star weekend is over, I'm going to wring his neck."

Teemu Selanne: "Right now, I feel there’s a very good chance I’m going to come back. When? That’s the question. When I feel ready. Every week, I’ve been feeling better and better and better."

I'll have more on this as it officially develops; in the meantime, here's some silly sketches I scanned:

Yeah, yeah. Not the best quality. Next time I'll use a thicker pen.

Ducks Gameday—The long-awaited appearance of Sleek (oh, and Scott I guess too)

Minnesota Wild (16-12-2, t-6th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (15-14-4, t-6th in west)

Another guest-art submission by spade-in-victorhell
Lots to cover today, but let's start with the important shit: I'll be in attendance at the old Ponda Center tonight on a pal's ticket--224, row J, green shirt. First one to buy me a beer wins a friend for life.

Maybe just as importantly for the Ducks' success, though, will be the return of Scott Niedermayer. I can hear the naysayers now, "But Sleek, what about the tag issue? Nobody's been traded to create next-year-salary-space for a cap-that-has-yet-to-be-set through a rule-that's-just-silly-but-in-the-way-nonetheless."

Yeah, yeah. But I'm trusting Burke on this one; he'll put a bullet in some poor guy's head if it will make the Niedermagic happen tonight. I even got a karmic sign--the Ducks put 41 different cup pictures on their season-ticket pack, and this was the picture used for tonight's game ticket:


Mama Niedermayer and her two bearded sons
It's a conspiracy I tell you! The team was in on this pseudo-retirement all along! (e1)

Anyway, outside of the numbers, what does Scott Niedermayer really mean for a team that's had a long run of mediocrity? Well, let me throw the calculator away, take a deep drink, and tell you.

The Oiler guys at IOF in particular have me convinced that hockey is a forward-driven sport; that they are the ones that largely drive scoring events, and that assuming goaltenders and coaching are generally competitive the team with the better set of forwards will win more often than not. I think this holds true for a lot of teams, but Anaheim's in a strange boat.

Take our top line the last two years, for example. You've got Teemu Selanne, a guy who during the lockout was considered washed up in this league. Then there's Andy McDonald and Chris Kunitz, two guys who somehow never got drafted nor really were considered top-line material. Did they all of a sudden turn really good on their own, or were they legitimized on the ice by a blue-line difference maker?

The rest of the forwards last year also had their drawbacks; on the second line were three young kids Getzlaf, Perry, and another undrafted Penner. On the stopper line was a legitimate stopper in Pahlsson carrying around a Chicago-throwaway in Travis Moen and a career-disappointment named Rob Niedermayer. Todd Marchant and Brad May were also throwaways, yet somehow they all combined for a cup-winning squad. What gives? Why did this ragtag set of forwards dominate the regular season and playoffs?

The answer, in my mind, is the ability for Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger to elevate everyone's results, including even their own defense partners -- Frenchie Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell, two guys other franchises didn't seem to want also. Largely I think this stems from each Norris guy's ability to singlehandedly transition from defense to offense; the forwards benefit from this support immensely. This season without Scott, Pronger has still demonstrated this ability, but it's largely in connection with the Pahlsson line defensive minutes; the top two lines haven't gotten any Norris benefit and thus they've had trouble outscoring their opposition like last year's top lines.

So my hockey philosophy, if you will, is that generally, a successful team gets built around its forward lines (and obviously goaltending). However, an alternative path to success can be achieved with the right kind of defensemen, provided they are the quality of player that can make their linemates better. I don't know if there are that many of those types of defensemen in this league, so to have two of them on one roster is certainly a rarity, one that I plan on enjoying for the rest of the year, at least.

We'll see whether Scott really does play tonight or how long it takes for this double-Norris effect to kick in; feel free to offer your Niedertheories on how well this team will finish the year.

Scott's at least done a little heavy lifting this summer.
Interesting fact: The Ducks have as many points through 33 games as they did to start 05-06 (14-13-6). That Mighty Ducks team finished the rest of the season going 29-14-6 to earn the 6th seed, which shockingly earned them home ice in two rounds of the playoffs. This year the playoff-requirement is probably lower, but I'd sure like to see that kind of improvement.

Prediction: Ducks 5, Wilds 2. Goals by Sutherby, Kunitz, Bertuzzi, Pahlsson, and ______ Niedermayer. I'll fill in that blank later. Nobody buys me a beer, but I have a great time nevertheless.

p.s. I probably won't be doing anything for Sunday's Sharks contest, as I'll be offline all weekend. The Sharks are playing tremendous hockey lately, but I'll have a few more opportunities next week to talk about that.

Go Ducks.

Welcome Back Scotter!

Let's cover the key points about the press conference, though I'm not going to add too much just yet.

• The announcement was strictly that Scott would play for the Ducks this year, but the timing is still up in the air. One of the main complications comes from a CBA thing called 'tagging'--I'm not going to do the proper research here, so here's Bob McKenzie's description:
  
  With Niedermayer potentially returning, and with another year left on his contract after this season, the Ducks could not add him to the roster now without freeing up cap room for next season. In the new CBA, it's called 'tagging' room and the Ducks don't have enough of it next season to allow Niedermayer back on the roster this season – unless they move a player who is under contract for next season.
  
  Basically, Scott cannot play a game for the Ducks until a roster player is moved--one who is paid well enough next year. Again, I don't really know the dollars required, but I'd guess the eligible list probably looks as follows: Schneider, Bertuzzi, McDonald, Beauchemin, O'Donnell, and Marchant. I'm excluding Pronger and Pahlsson because of their on-ice value, Giguere because of his no-trade clause, and Rob Niedermayer because of nepotism.



• Despite acknowledging the need to move a player, Burke was adamant that he was determined to shake up his roster after the 20-game mark (9-8-3). Burke says he went and talked to the team about the trade that is yet to happen. He offered them this classic Burkish wake-up-call:
  
  If anyone wants to blame this on Scott's return, feel free. Fact of the matter is that we've looked at making changes based on the performance of the team since the 20-game mark.



• In terms of timeframe, Burke said that as an NHL player, Scott "owes" the Ducks 21 days of training camp, though the team is free to put Scott in the lineup at its own discretion during that time. Up until Scott is activated, he still is in suspended status, even though he'll practice with the team. Burke says his guess is that given Scott's conditioning, he could make his debut in 7 - 10 days.
  
  Why's that significant? Because I'm going to a game against the Wild. In SEVEN FUCKING DAYS. Get it going, Scott.

Man oh man. It should be an interesting end to the year for these crazy Ducks, who haven't even strayed into Teemu territory yet--stay tuned!

p.s. Anybody interested in starting a campaign to write Scott Niedermayer into the All Star game?

Scott skates! Sleek makes a cartoon!

Unfortunately, you're going to have to go over to the Fanhouse to see it. I would have put it here, but I think your mouse-clicking finger is looking a little out-of-shape. Time to give it a good ol' one-click workout.

Just so this isn't just a useless "look at that!" post, though, I will point out that I will be in Row B attendance for tomorrow's BoC battle--Sharks at Ducks. I plan on being very boozed up so that I can properly remind a certain Shark player of his very nice near-accomplishment:

It should be a lot of fun, whether or not history gets made. Let's hope that I don't get Robitailled.

[AFTERNOON EDIT: Below is a cartoon that will not be making its way to the Fanhouse. It's not that it's not allowed, but really, there's no good story to write alongside it. Besides, the cartoon requires two things: (a) a fairly strong understanding of NHL goaltending styles, and (b) a fairly strong tolerance for puns. It's designed for a narrow audience--cool yet corny. Enjoy!]

October: not a bad month for Teemu to take off

Well, as this season continues without much to get excited for, I thought I'd take a look at last year's goal-scorers, mostly to highlight the awesomeness that was Teemu Selanne. The table below is the listing of the top 30 goal-scorers from last season (33 goals or more), separated by what they scored in October '06 vs. what they scored over the remainder of the season. I've sorted by goals scored in October.

Player	Age 10/4/06	Conf	Oct. GP	Oct. G	Oct. G/Gm	Post-Oct. GP	Post-Oct. G	Post-Oct. G/Gm
C. Drury	30.1	East	11	10	.909	66	27	.409
M. Hossa	27.7	East	13	10	.769	69	33	.478
I. Kovalchuk	23.5	East	13	9	.692	69	33	.478
A. Semin	22.6	East	11	8	.727	66	30	.455
D. Heatley	25.7	East	11	7	.636	71	43	.606
M. St. Louis	31.3	East	11	7	.636	71	36	.507
T. Vanek	22.7	East	11	7	.636	71	36	.507
J. Pominville	23.8	East	11	7	.636	71	27	.380
S. Crosby	19.2	East	9	6	.667	70	30	.429
J. Iginla	29.3	West	10	6	.600	60	33	.550
V. Lecavalier	26.5	East	11	6	.545	71	46	.648
A. Ovechkin	21.0	East	11	6	.545	71	40	.563
S. Gagne	26.6	East	11	6	.545	65	35	.538
J. Blake	33.1	East	11	6	.545	71	34	.479
R. Smyth	30.6	West	11	6	.545	60	30	.500
M. Hejduk	30.6	West	11	6	.545	69	29	.420
E. Malkin	20.2	East	5	5	1.000	73	28	.384
J. Sakic	37.2	West	11	5	.455	71	31	.437
J. Spezza	23.3	East	11	5	.455	56	29	.518
J. Williams	25.0	East	12	5	.417	70	28	.400
O. Jokinen	27.8	East	13	5	.385	69	34	.493
J. Cheechoo	26.2	West	13	5	.385	63	32	.508
D. Sedin	26.0	West	13	5	.385	68	31	.456
M. Cammalleri	24.3	West	14	5	.357	67	29	.433
B. Guerin	35.9	West	10	4	.400	67	32	.478
A. Frolov	24.3	West	14	4	.286	68	31	.456
K. Huselius	24.3	West	10	2	.200	71	32	.451
D. Langkow	30.0	West	10	2	.200	71	31	.437
H. Zetterberg	26.0	West	11	2	.182	52	31	.596
T. Selanne	36.3	West	12	1	.083	70	47	.671

Take a look at that bottom row. Not only is Teemu the 2nd-oldest player among these top 30 goal scorers and the only western conference player to score 40 or more goals, but he did it on the strength of exactly one October goal. Starting in November, Selanne's surge began—from November 1st on, Selanne led this list (and presumably the league) both in total goals scored and goals-per-game.

I really have no idea where Teemu sits when it comes to his plans for this year. For whatever reason, I get the feeling that he is waiting on Scott to make a decision before he'll make one, which strikes me as rather odd. Generally thus far, all my retirement posts have been concerning the whereabouts of a certain Scott Niedermayer; even with forward injuries and depth issues I feel like Scott's decision is more critical to the Ducks' chances this year. Still, I really should stop neglecting Teemu. His 76 goals is the highest total for any first-year NHLer, and his 48 goals may end up being the highest total for any final-year NHLer (does anyone know how to verify that?). And heck, it may even be the highest total for any player coming out of October with one or fewer goals. Whether he retires or not, I think the evidence is pretty darn strong: the Finnish Flash has still got a scoring touch that still ranks among the league's best.

C'mon, Teemu. You've got the touch, and besides, you've only got one less goal than you did this time last year.

Just like the movies—Ducks start their sequel year in the toilet

Sweet lord. The Ducks, tasked with holding up a one-goal lead for twelve minutes, managed to give up a shorthanded goal with a minute-and-a-half left before giving two points up to the Oilers' 2nd goalie in the shootout. The Oilers, of course, are the one team that the Ducks are least interested in giving two points to, because Anaheim holds their Penner first-round pick for next year.

The Ducks are pathetic in so many ways it's disgusting.

• The power play is pretty much a liability—all it seems to do is eat up key player minutes. In the last eight games (six of them in Honda Center), Anaheim has enjoyed nearly 68 minutes of 5-on-4 PP time, and managed to score one goal, while allowing one. Sure there's personnel issues with the 2nd unit, but the fact is the top unit players are probably more guilty of underproducing with the man-advantage than the checking line is.
• The Ducks have trailed by a goal for 220:47 and scored 4 goals—one goal every 55 minutes. The team has led by a goal for 103:02, and allowed 8 goals—one goal every 13 minutes.
• The Ducks' record is 4-7-2, good for 10 points through 13 games. Wanna know how many teams have made the playoffs the last two years with 10 or fewer points through their first 13 games? One—the Calgary Flames, who have actually done it twice. Calgary started with that same 4-7-2 record each of the last two years.
• If you project the current record to 82 games, that would make for 25-44-13, 63 points. That would have been good for 28th in the league in 2005-06 and 29th in the league last year.
• And it's not like competition is much of a factor, either. The last two games the Ducks have lost home games to the two bottom teams in the west, each playing their backup goalies, and couldn't manufacture a win either time. Against this competition, the Ducks scored 2 goals in 125 minutes.

And yeah there's help coming—Getzlaf, R. Niedermayer, Bertuzzi, and Schneider for sure, and we'll have to wait and see with S. Niedermayer and Selanne. The real tragedy is that this team figures to be be an awesome lineup if all its pieces came together, but when is it going to be too late? How long can it dig itself a hole among the NHL's worst?

I hate to be the one to bring it up, but really this whole harsh fall-from-grace theme has already been played out on the big screen, and apparently our hopes for this year rest on the rest of the D2 script playing true. The story thus far:

A hockey team of castaways is thrust into the national spotlight following the success it achieved in the previous season. Ill-prepared for all the hype, they are embarrassed on and off the ice, and proceed to lose their temper and refuse to play well as a team.

In true Disney fashion, then, I'd expect the team to get bolstered with a few familiar faces (Scott & Teemu) and through some off-ice bonding, rediscover the meaning of teamwork in the face of adversity. In fact, I'm kind of hoping that the Ducks take this movie re-enactment to the limit.

Imagine: a second-period-intermission that really turns the shitty season around. After getting outworked and outscored for forty minutes, the team shockingly returns clad in their old eggplant-and-teal cartoon jerseys and teamed with some suddenly unretired-and-eligible superstars. Opponents, announcers, league lawyers, and fans are all shocked, but somehow in the name of drama it all gets allowed. The Re-Mightified Ducks then rediscover their identity and on-ice domination and pull off a memorable comeback win, before having to re-learn the lesson the following season.

I know throwing my hopes up against a Disney sequel script is idiotic, but at this point what choice do I have? The on-ice results are beyond disappointing; this squad bears zero resemblance both in personnel and performance to the team that cruised through last spring's playoffs. And while there still is some hope tied to the white knights named Niedermayer and Selanne, I'm not sure how excited they will be to pin their unretirement hopes on a team that seems to have lost its ability to manufacture a basic win.

Maybe I'm being overly panicky here; the schedule is still not yet 1/5 played, and both my head and my Playstation tell me that a team boasting a blueline of Niedermayer, Pronger, Beauchemin, and Schneider can get the wins together to propel this team to the playoffs. Still, Anaheim is a team that needs some good news quickly, or else the question won't be "are the Ducks going to be this year's version of the Carolina Hurricanes?" but rather "are the Ducks going to be this year's version of the Philadelphia Flyers?"

A Hollywood-style ending is not out of the question for this Anaheim team, but the margin for error is deteriorating fast. Better start working on that knucklepuck, Giguere.

Ducks Gameday—12,000 mile migration finally finds its way home

Boston Bruins (1-1-0, t-8th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (1-3-1, t-6th in west)

After a road trip that can best be described as "predictably brutal", the Ducks finally raise their banners tonight in front of the home crowd--Scott and Teemu are supposed to be in attendance, so that should be an interesting ceremony, at least. I'm not going to overcriticize the team for the lackluster start, even though the last three cup-winners have all had excellent starts to their year: Tampa Bay took points in 14 of its first 16 games (11-2-3), Carolina earned points in 13 of 16 (12-3-1), and last year's Ducks got points in all 16 (12-0-4).

This year's Ducks have only taken points in 2 out of its first 5 games, but I'm staying optimistic. Here's some semi-random thoughts I've been mulling over:

1. Last year's Senators recovered from a brutal start to make the cup finals, so a rough start isn't insurmountable. Ottawa took points in only 7 of its first 16, but unlike the Ducks so far, the Senators' goal-differential was pretty promising. Just a side note on the Sens' top line: it took them less than 2 games this season to score as many goals and points as they got in all 5 games against the Ducks last spring. Just sayin'.

2. Fortunately, the rest of the Pacific Division has started slowly as well. The Ducks will have a games-in-hand issue as the season goes on, but I'm surprised nobody in the division has passed the Ducks in the standings yet. Last year, the Pacific produced three 107-point teams; so far this year nobody in the division sits above the .500 mark and every team is getting outscored.

3. The main thing I can say about the team's rough start was that it was entirely predictable. The team had a lengthy spring, with the cup hangover and semi-retirements that tend to follow. They had a severely shortened summer and an abbreviated camp to accomodate two September games overseas. Then they hurried back to open the North American season with 3 openers in 4 nights.


I made the graphic to the left just to show the whimsy of the scheduling discrepancy thus far--after tonight's games, the two teams with the shortest summers will have hurried to play more games than any other team, and the Ducks in particular will have played twice as many games as more than 2/3 the league.

Besides the schedule impacting results, there is also the matter of personnel: compared to last year's squad, the team is short a #1 goaltender, a top-scoring forward, a top-scoring defenseman, a top-scoring rookie, a top-shutdown center, and a top-UFA defenseman. And really, all that's been available to replace them has been Todd Bertuzzi, Shane Hnidy, and rookies.

I guess my main point here is that when I evaluate NHL teams, I don't often hold them to irrelevant results. Last season I often ignored a 2-7-2 stretch in January when Giguere, Pronger, Beauchemin, Marchant, and Bryzgalov all had simultaneous injuries. The season before I isolated results for the Sharks after they inserted Thornton and Toskala, and for the Ducks after they shed Fedorov, Sykora, Carney, and Ozolinsh.

So I'm not reading anything into this ridiculously-scheduled start. Instead, I still look forward to what sort of success (or lineup, really) that these Ducks project to have with at least the additions of Giguere, Schneider, and Pahlsson.

4. Just for historical comparison, after the Ducks' first visit to the cup finals, they started the next season with an 0-4-1 start, so at least things could be worse. The first five games of 2003-04 were a truly brutal start: 5 goals-for and 16 goals-against; at least this year's squad has scored 11. Coincidentally, the 5th game in that Oct. 03 slump was the last time the Bruins visited Anaheim.

Sidenote #1: I'll give Boston credit for also starting this season with some tough matchups--they are the visitor for the home openers in Dallas, Anaheim, and San Jose. However, those openers are spread out, and after this trip Boston won't leave the eastern time zone again.

Sidenote #2: I actually was in attendance for that Ducks-Bruins game back in 2003. I remember that game because I managed to pull my wallet out at a beer stand, walk away with a beer in each hand, and not discover my missing wallet until I got home. So if you found a wallet that night, you know the secret identity of Earl Sleek (you bastard).

5. Back to this season, I'm at least hopeful that the Ducks' pathetic start convinces Scott and Teemu that they're still useful for this team. If I'm Brian Burke, I'm really hoping each of them watches the Columbus video in particular. In case you missed it, that was the game where it took the Ducks 16 minutes to find out Pascal Leclaire was in the Blue Jacket net.

6. At least the on-ice problems thus far seem identifiable and fixable. First off, the PK desperately needs Pahlsson back--9 of the 16 goals they've surrendered have come on opposition power plays. Two players that have been particularly exposed: Ryan Getzlaf has played 12 shorthanded minutes with 4 goals against, and Francois Beauchemin in 29 minutes has been on the ice for 8 of the 9 PPGs-against.

As for goaltending, it's actually been quite stellar for the most part. Ilya Bryzgalov has started three games and only allowed one even-strength goal. Breezy's problem is that he's been victimized for eight power play goals-against, plus the Ducks have only offered him three total goals-for in support. I didn't catch all of the Pittsburgh game, but Hiller's impressed as well.

Prediction: Sorry I'm long-winded today, but in support of the Ducks I've flown on two red-eye flights within the last week, and I'm feeling the lack of proper bed-sleep. Anyway, the Ducks' only win this season came on the only game I didn't make a gameday post, but I know what's been the missing element: Sammy Pahlsson. He's a possibility to return for tonight's game, and that's good enough for me. Ducks 3, Bruins 2. Pahlsson, Perry, and Pahlsson.

Go Ducks.

Scott, you lazy genius!

Dear Scott: I for one would like to say that I completely support your inability to make up your mind. Sure, retirement would have meant you could relax away from hockey, but not deciding, now there's a stroke of brilliance!

Not only do you avoid pesky hockey duties like training camp and flying to London and back, but you also get to steer clear of any PTAs or HOAs or any other serious household responsibilities. After all, how could you commit to anything long-term? You've still gotta remain available for hockey, just in case you stumble on some motivation or conscience, right?

One lazy guy to another, I salute you, soldier. You've played enough games hurt that I can allow some missed games healthy. Enjoy your break.

(Oh, and Scott? Just in case you're looking for some non-paying employment to occupy your free time for a bit, don't forget we're always on the lookout for more Conn Smythe winning writers here at BoC!)

-----------------------
Aside to the fans: I've heard lots of grumbling that Scott is holding the Ducks hostage with his indecision, and sure there's $6.75 M of salary sitting in limbo, but I'm not worried. Brian Burke has kept the cap space available for a return, and can surely he can find a way to motivate Scott to play, if things get desperate.

Don't forget that he has one key bargaining chip at his disposal:


Scott, if you ever want to see Rob's famousbackhand again, you'll rejoin the team ASAP.
See ya soon! -- B. B.
p.s. A very happy birthday to our blogdaddy, the ever-awesome Battle of Alberta. So many awesome posts, but I just gotta link to two of my personal faves: Beard Talk and its sequel The Many Faces of Sacamano. Great work, guys.

The Never-Ending Story: Indecisionmayer

Well, more on Niedergate: the wavering one has called a press conference for 10:30 am this morning, but word on the internet is that he will essentially tell us nothing. Per the OC Register, Scott will miss the start of training camp, but other than that his future is no more clear than it was in June: “Maybe I’ll be in camp in a week, or for that matter, I could never put on skates again.”

And while Ducks fans and non-Ducks fans alike fret and stew and wonder and wait, I gotta side with Brian Burke on this issue: "I think there's a misperception out there that this is somehow inconveniencing us. And it's not. We want this player to return. The phone call we don't want is that he's going to retire. The fact he's undecided and this might stretch into the start of the year, this is not a crisis mode for us. This is good news. Because it means he hasn't made the one phone call we don't want him to make."

This Globe & Mail piece lays out the salary options on Niedermayer pretty well: so long as there's no 'agreement' with Niedermayer as to the timing of his possible return, the Ducks can suspend Niedermayer for missing camp, and however long Scott stays out, his $6.75 M salary will not have to be paid nor will it count against the salary cap.

If anything meaningful is said during the press conference, I will add it to this post. In the meantime, though, here's three takeaway thoughts:

• The Ducks, by signing Schneidermayer and bringing back the rest of the blueliners, are more equipped to replace Scott Niedermayer's minutes than they are to replace Teemu Selanne's and Dustin Penner's minutes. Prolonging Scott's decision is not a huge on-ice hurdle (see some stats numbers here), and I'm sure other teams would kill to have Anaheim's "problems".



• If Scott does return to the team at some point this season and the team manages to retain Schneidermayer, then the Ducks would boast a top-four of Pronger, Niedermayer, Schneider, and Beauchemin. The particularly tempting thing about this blueline setup is this thought: wouldn't it make sense to make Niedermayer-Pronger a regular blueline pair, just like we saw dominate the cup finals?



• Probably the most-overlooked good news here is that there is no grumbling coming from the Pronger camp; he's a guy with a bigger history of not honoring contracts. While it is weird to think that Anaheim's next captain may be the recipient of the NHL's two most recent suspensions, it's very comforting to know he's not ditching the team for greener pastures.

So yeah, this non-news isn't troubling me as much as maybe it should, but your reactions are welcome in the comments.