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Friday, June 29, 2007

Retirement Threat #1: how do you replace Scott Niedermayer?

(Author’s Note: I HAVE NO NEWS IN THIS POST. I figured I’d best say that up front.)

So with Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne both threatening to retire 'on top of the world', I thought I’d spend today looking at Scott’s on-ice contribution, and deal with Teemu's in a separate post.

Over the course of the regular season and playoffs, the captain played over 2,800 minutes, nearly 400 more than the next highest Duck skater. He led Anaheim defensemen in even-strength minutes, power play minutes, and shorthanded minutes, and total scoring, as well. He was also Anaheim’s top-paid player ($6.75 M/year on a deal that has two more years on it), a Norris finalist, and the Conn Smythe winner to boot.

To help measure his on-ice contribution, though, here are the 5 defensemen signed for next year, and their combined regular-season and playoff totals from last year:

Even-Strength:

Player

GPES minES +/hrES –/hrES +/–/hr
Niedermayer

100

1,803

+2.66

-2.23

+0.43

Beauchemin

91

1,749

+2.44

-2.13

+0.31

O’Donnell

100

1,621

+2.48

-1.96

+0.52

Pronger

85

1,520

+3.00

-1.54

+1.46

Huskins

54

640

+1.97

-1.88

+0.09

What’s staggering here is really the difference in productivity of Chris Pronger from pretty much everyone else (even his regular defense partner Sean O’Donnell). The best goals-for, the best goals-against, and the best differential, all while playing comparable minutes to Niedermayer. I don’t want to knock the captain’s productivity, but Scott is clearly outshined on these metrics.

Power Play:

Player

GPPP minPP +/hrPP –/hrPP +/–/hr
Niedermayer

100

582

+7.94

-0.72

+7.22

Pronger

85

509

+8.25

-0.24

+8.01

Beauchemin

91

286

+6.09

-0.63

+5.46

On the power play, only three defensemen played any significant minutes, and certainly Niedermayer's presence was a huge part. One thing about Niedermayer: he's got a very below-average shot from the blueline, but made himself really useful as a high screen / rover. Again, though, Pronger is the star in terms of net production.

Penalty Kill:

Player

GPSH minSH +/hrSH –/hrSH +/–/hr
Niedermayer

100

415

+0.29

-6.65

-6.36

Beauchemin

91

385

+0.47

-6.08

-5.61

O’Donnell

100

367

+0.49

-3.93

-3.44

Pronger

85

333

+0.54

-5.23

-4.69

Note that these numbers are inclusive of 4-on-5 and 3-on-5 situations, which partially explains why Niedermayer's production looks bad here. Even so, though, his numbers pale again against Pronger's, who also was a fixture on 2-man disadvantages.

Bottom line: Even though Scott is outshined in the production metrics by Pronger, he still plays a huge role minutes-wise and leadership-wise, and his salary is quite favorable compared to other top-earning defensemen. Should Scott announce his retirement, the Ducks definitely need to figure out who their captain will be, and also find a way to replace his minutes for a pretty similar cost. Unfortunately, I really doubt this can be accomplished with one $6 - $7 M defenseman in today's high-priced market (it doesn’t buy you what it used to); this really is the main reason why I’d really prefer Scott to play out his existing contract.

A key question that still needs to be answered will be the production of defenseman Francois Beauchemin, who has played pretty much his entire 2-year NHL career with Scotty as his partner. Certainly the early play of Frenchie has been promising, but it is somewhat easy to look good when you’ve got the smoothest skater in the league leading your rushes and still covering your back.

If Niedermayer does choose to retire, though, I would guess the best way to go about replacing him would be pretty much to build a traditional blueline around the other Norris finalist, Pronger. Rather than have two defensive pairs play nearly all the minutes, the resulting defense would probably have to spread minutes to the third pairing a lot more evenly, so probably Niedermayer would be best replaced by two capable $3M defensemen, preferably not UFAs signed on July 1st, though—those signings usually signify an overcommitment.

Anyway, Scott’s decision is probably the one key thing I’m keeping my eye on this offseason—I don’t think the Ducks are in horrible trouble either way, but definitely there will have to be a huge strategy adjustment if he leaves. Based on the minutes he plays, I would say he’s a tougher hurdle to replace than Selanne, but we’ll be taking a look at that in a later post.

9 comments:

Daniel said...

Good post, but we know numbers don't tell everything. Two more 3-4 defenders can stop the bleeding, but Huskins is not the answer for a 5-6. There is a reason he trolled around the minors for so long and got the contract he did. I miss Shane O'Brien.

I wonder if the minutes he DID play this season and the role in which he played them helped motivate him to think about retiring. To know every game, you will play 30 minutes no matter what, 82 games, 2 months of playoffs. That has to be tough. Too bad the Ducks didn't have better 5-6 guys that way the studs didn't have to play so much.

Anonymous said...

I am unfamiliar with Huskins other than his recent stint with the Ducks. What does Huskins do or not do that makes him a bad choice for a 5-6 defenseman? Not trying to cause trouble, just an honest question.

Earl Sleek said...

What does Huskins do or not do that makes him a bad choice for a 5-6 defenseman? Not trying to cause trouble, just an honest question.

Honestly, I'm a little stumped here, also. He wasn't especially good or bad at anything in his limited minutes, but it's tough to draw too much from that. By the end, I was more scared about what DiPenta would do with the puck than with Huskins.

I think he's gotta be a 5-6 guy with a semi-reliable defender, unless they pair him with Pronger. Having Chris watch his back is the only way I'd move him up to a top-four role.

Jeremy said...

I think Huskins played a good "company man" role last year - probably told, "Whatever you do, don't get caught out of position defensively." To me, he showed better-than-average puck-handling ability. There were several end-to-end rushed he manufactured while the forwards were changing. If he's given more leeway, I'd expect him to be top 4. Which is why I was kind of surprised about resigning O'Donnell.
The current open spot seems like its Aaron Rome's to lose.
If Huskins does break out next year, there's got to be talk of just how good it is to have a Norris-winning coach teaching these guys. How much has Beauch benefitted from Randy as coach?

Earl Sleek said...

The current open spot seems like its Aaron Rome's to lose.

Oh, I kind of assume he's already lost that spot. I might be mistaken here, but I thought I heard that Maxim Kondratiev was back in the team's plans next year after playing in Russia last year.

He's ahead of Rome in my book.

Daniel said...

The scariest breather defensemen last year was Jackman, he just looked easily rattled. DiPenta had his moments of being shaky as did Huskins. But when I think of championship teams, I don't think they have a Huskins on their team. You have excuse this year since he played 5 minutes a game.

Of course, this all goes away if Scott Niedermayer comes back, then you could have two orange highway cones as the 5-6 for all I care.

AnaheimDuckFan said...

Jeremy- If he's (Huskins) given more leeway, I'd expect him to be top 4. Which is why I was kind of surprised about resigning O'Donnell.

What? I can't believe you said that. Huskins is a good defensemen, but not good enough to be in the top 4 on a regular basis. O'Donnell is a great defensemen, who doesn't give up a lot of pucks, knows where to play the puck & is a great leader to the team. Besides all that, GM Brian Burke likes O'Donnell and knows that he is worth every penny they pay him.

You might want to try doing some research (aside from looking at stats), before you degrade a player.

Iffy said...

I guess he is retiring. Schneider is a duck. Burke, of course, is a genious.

link

John said...

The Anaheim Ducks have signed Mathieu Schnieder to a two year deal that pays him $5.5M in the first season and $5.75 in the second.