Brian Burke Week Part 1: Sleek defends three "bad" moves

Hey, everybody! Welcome to Burke Week, where I'll take a scattered look back on what I take to be Brian Burke's legacy in Anaheim. I do have a lot to say about the guy, and rather than cram it all into one post I thought I'd break it into semi-coherent parts throughout the week.

Part I: Defending three "bad" Burke moves that I don't think were that bad. For better or worse, opposing fans love to criticize Brian Burke's management style, and at times, the desire to call out Burke for a "bad" move ignores a lot of important context. Burke's first few years, of course, are now left alone because the Ducks won a cup, but since then it seems that critics are all-too-ready to point out where Burke has made his supposed mistakes.

There's really two things to keep in mind when discussing some of these debatable moves, though: (1) Thanks to salary cap mechanics, it's always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to keep a championship team together. I hold little expectation that any cup-winning roster could or should be fully retained -- there's always got to be adaptation and prioritization after a team experiences success. (2) Behind every one of these moves is the decision to allow Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to semi-retire. I'll certainly talk more about this later, but basically if you disagree on giving players that freedom (and would rather Burke forced retirement on them), then probably you won't agree with the validity of these moves, but it is important to understand Burke's underlying motivation.

Lastly, I don't want to overstate things in this post -- I'm not saying that these moves were ideal, by any means. My main point is that they are more tolerable to me than people suggest -- I'm not angry with Burke for making them, at any rate.

1. Waiving Ilya Bryzgalov

Sleek's initial take: It seems absolutely amazing to me that a goaltender with the lowball salary and highball postseason success couldn't be traded in today's league, but I've had low expectations ever since the seemingly poor returns for Tomas Vokoun or Vesa Toskala last summer. As much as it might pain rival fans to admit it, I think the departure of Bryzgalov has very little to do with Scott and Teemu, and really has more to do with Bryzgalov trying to be a #1 and Hiller being promoted to the big leagues.

On paper this sounds horrible, because Breezy was definitely a proven playoff performer, given away to a divisional rival for free. And generally, I’m not in favor of losing assets for nothing. However, you also have to consider the Ducks were locked into J.S. Giguere for four years (including a no-movement clause), and had signed a promising netminder in Jonas Hiller as well. Not only was Breezy prevented from upward movement in the organization, but he was even in the youngster’s way, plus he was due for a raise the next summer. Burke claims that the move was done for Bryzgalov’s benefit, and it’s tough to disbelieve him on that statement, and for sure the goalie-trade market was thin (that’s the inherent irony in goalie salaries: they are no doubt the most important player on the ice, yet there are more than 60 players who could play in the NHL). So Burke ensured that Breezy gets picked up by a bottom team while publicly keeping his word to his netminder – there’s definitely payoff in being a “player first” GM like that, and while there was no trade return, you have to remember that Hiller cost the Ducks nothing either. It seems a relative wash to me, with some good PR on the side.

2. Trading Andy McDonald to St. Louis for Doug Weight

Sleek's initial take: Of course, it's sort of a mistake to look at this just as a McDonald-for-Weight trade, as context is huge for this deal. In return for trading away Andy Mac, the Ducks get Doug Weight, the right to play Scott Niedermayer, the right to keep Mathieu Schneider, and the possibility to sign Teemu Selanne. Even if DeadWeight turns out to be a bust, there's still a lot of trade return there.

Yes, this was salary-necessitated, and yes, I’d rather have Andy Mac than Doug Weight on my team any day. Still, this needs context more than anything. As my quote above suggests, it wasn’t just a one-for-one trade; Andy McDonald was traded for Doug Weight + the tag space to keep Mathieu Schneider + the room to welcome back Scott Niedermayer + the room to later sign Teemu Selanne. The salary side sucked, I guess, but the Ducks by the end of that season had more than $24 million tied into three defensemen plus a goalie – a more expensive team than they could have afforded for a full season. As for success, yeah, there was no Stanley Cup, but in the 48 games after the McDonald/Weight trade (Scotty's return), the Ducks dropped nearly a full goal-against-per-game, and played on a pace that would have won them the President’s Trophy and the Jennings Trophy. Hard to be overly critical of a trade that transformed a .500 team into a top-tier contender.

3. Signing Mathieu Schneider

Sleek's initial take: Brian Burke certainly acted as if Niedermayer's retirement is a sure thing. Think about this: if Scott were to play his contract next year, that would mean that the Ducks' goalie and top four defensemen would cost roughly $26 M next year; that's more than half the salary cap. And then the logical move, oddly enough, would probably be to trade away the newly-signed Schneider.

It’s really tough for me to get angry with Burke for this signing, as it seemed a logical reaction to Scott Niedermayer’s effective retirement. It didn’t pan out, obviously, and did put the Ducks in a heck of a salary cap crunch at the end of last summer, but I think the signing made sense in its context and Schneidermayer certainly knew what a potential salary mess he was getting himself into. What clouds this issue somewhat is the poor start that Schneider has had in Atlanta -- certainly his numbers suggest that he is washed up. However, I'd guess that he's being mis-used on the Thrashers; for the past few seasons Schneider has been an extremely effective weapon in easy minutes, playing behind a Nick Lidstrom or a Chris Pronger. In Anaheim, Schneider certainly had a solid year: At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. While certainly the team would have been easier to manage last season without Schneider's salary on the books, Burke saw a gaping hole on his blueline and reacted to it. In retrospect, the signing proved excessive, but at the time when Niedermayer's retirement seemed believable enough, I think Burke got a decent replacement option off the UFA market, and that's not something I'll spend too much time criticizing.

So there you have it, three moves that I don't criticize Burke for (at least, not to the extent that others do). Agree or disagree with my assessments, or do you have another example of your own? Feel free to leave it in the comments. Then stay tuned for Burke Week Part II (possibly tomorrow?), where I'll point out some moves where I am more critical on Burke's decision-making.

Go Ducks.

Stars trade for memories

In case you didn't hear the news already, the Dallas Stars traded oft-injured defenseman Phillippe Boucher for plays-like-he's-injured Daryl Sydor.

For the Penguins, they get a player who either is damaged goods or a short term boost to their power play. If nothing else, Boucher might be a helpful stop gap while Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney rehab their extensive injuries.

It's harder to see the benefit for the Stars. Sydor was a healthy scratch much of his time with the Penguins and he's making the same money ($2.5 million) as Boucher so it's not getting any cash off the books. Clearly, this is Brett Hull's version of Kevin Smith bringing back his buddies when they normally would just drift through the streets of New Jersey. Realistically speaking, it's a brush with nostalgia.

Then again, maybe it was more of a statement to the old and mid guard in Dallas: get your shit together or you'll get traded. Brad Richards and Brendan Morrow looked borderline weepy after that second straight loss to Los Angeles, so this move might simply be an attempt to light a fire under a listless Stars team.

Boucher wasn't doing much anyway, so it might just be a wash.

What the O'Donnell Trade Means for Los Angeles

The Kings are cooking now! ...I hate myself.

The Kings needed a experienced, left-handed defenseman, and yet getting Sean O'Donnell never even crossed my mind. I think I have a mental block on all non-Jewish Ducks players. But luckily Dean Lombardi doesn't have the same handicap and managed to acquire O'Donnell for basically nothing. The gist is that the Kings have to give the Ducks a 3rd rounder only if the Kings decide to trade O'Donnell at the deadline. It's a pretty smart clause by Burke: it pretty much guarantees that O'Donnell won't come back and bite him in the ass (unless, you know, he's into that sort of thing). It was also a good move for Lombardi, as he gets a "good character guy"* and a solid defensive specialist basically for free.

*You always hear that someone's a good character guy, but we really have no idea. Yeah O'Donnell is probably a nice guy, but maybe he hits his kids. Nobody really knows. You never hear that a European is a good character guy, either.

O'Donnell's impact on the Ducks' defense has been overstated at this point. The aging blueliner averaged 17 minutes a game, good for 6th among Anaheim defensemen. O'Donnell skated mostly with Chris Pronger, but Pronger also skated an additional 3 minutes with other people. At even strength O'Donnell is probably a little bit of a liability, as he has a penchant for taking penalties and is losing a step. However, O'Donnell's a pretty big asset on the penalty kill; when they weren't in the box, O'Donnell and Pronger formed one of the best penalty kill tandems in the league. I expect O'Donnell and Jack Johnson to form the Kings' top penalty killing unit this season. Finally, Sean O'Donnell is someone who will defend his teammates. He had 4 fights last year, mostly when someone pissed him off, and isn't afraid to put someone on his ass if they're around the goaltender. Brent Severyn won't be able to take liberties with Dmitri Khristich when Sean O'Donnell's on the ice. Plus, he grows a mean beard.


The addition of O'Donnell does not really make the Kings' defense that much better, but he does provide an solid presence to counteract the youth of the team. If Drew Doughty makes the team I imagine Terry Murray will pair him with O'Donnell; a young defender needs a guy he can trust to cover for his inexperience and O'Donnell would be perfect for that. I swear I remember O'Donnell playing on the right side when he was with the Kings and that he switched to the left so he could play with Pronger, but I'm not sure. Any Wild fans remember where O'Donnell played? I see the defense shaking out this way:

Greene-Johnson
Preissing-Harrold
Doughty-O'Donnell
Gauthier

That's still terrible, but it's a little better than when I woke up yesterday morning. Oh well, I guess we'll just have to see how it shakes out. Overall, I'd give Lombardi an A for the individual move and a C when looking at the overall picture. Getting an NHL defenseman for nothing is obviously a good idea, but I think the Kings could have gotten someone much better if he had been willing to take on a little more salary.

***

The Kings and the Ducks played last night at Staples Center and the Ducks won in a shootout, 2-1. Terry Murray continued rewarding players for their effort in the shootout, as Matt Moulson, Ted Purcell and David Meckler were all given an opportunity and failed miserably. Chris Kunitz scored the lone goal for the Ducks in the shootout. On the plus side, Jason Labarbera played very well, stopping 30 of 31 shots. He'll be the Kings' #1 goaltender and will hopefully be more consistent this season. Wayne Simmonds got in 2 fights and got his first profile in the LA Times. Good for him.

Finally, Connie from Queen Among Kings has her Frozen Fury recap up and unveils Air Bailey. I knew the guy that used to wear a suit like that for Long Beach State; he had a person walk around with him because little kids used to try to push him down the stairs.

Sean O'Donnell is a King

Step aside, little ones.
Wow.

More coming, but first let's hear the various sides yell "NOOOOOOOO!!!!" in the comments.

[UPDATE: The OC Register has more:

The conditional pick means that if O’Donnell is traded again before the deadline this season, the Ducks will receive the Kings’ third round pick. If the the Kings keep O’Donnell past the deadline, the Ducks would get nothing in return.

Clever deal. Normally I'd expect Lombardi to turn down deals just to keep his own draft pick, but if he gets offered a 2nd-rounder, would he turn it down?]

Crisis Averted! Thoughts on the Schneidermayer Trade

At long last, Mathieu Schneider has been traded. A mere fifteen months since he signed on with the Ducks, he was shipped off to Atlanta yesterday afternoon in exchange for Ken Klee and a few bodies.

To be fair, it's been an eventful fifteen months for the Ducks, thanks to a steady pattern of un-retirement from Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. Anyways, here's some things I feel should be pointed out about the trade.

1. It's important to understand: Mathieu Schneider was not a failure for the Ducks, and I'm not convinced he's overpaid. I think he'll have a good year in Atlanta. With the recent waiving of Schneider and the fact that 29 teams refused to pick him up for free, I think there's been a lot of misconception that "Schneider has lost it" or that "he's grossly overpaid". Those statements could certainly be applied earlier in the summer to Todd Bertuzzi, but I think in Schneider's case they're off-base.

When Scott returned to the Ducks lineup in December, Coach Carlyle resumed his pattern of splitting all the important even-strength minutes to his two main pairings: Niedermayer-Beauchemin and Pronger-O'Donnell. Schneider was left to play easy Dipenta-minutes with Kent Huskins, plus was given some top power play time. Pretty ripe minutes for an offensive talent like Schneider, and there's not much bad to say about his overall results. At even-strength in the regular season, Schneider was on the ice for 50 GF, 23 GA, a better than 2-to-1 ratio. On the power play, he was on the ice for 34 GF, 5 GA. Schneider outscored his opposition like crazy, even if it was done in fairly easy ice time. If he can get those sort of sweet minutes on Atlanta, I don't really see why he can't get similarly good results this year.

Schneider's waiving and trading was a function of salary cap math, not his play on the ice. With $13M at Niedermayer and Pronger, $7.3M at Giguere and Hiller, $10+M at Getzlaf and Perry, the Ducks couldn't afford the luxury of having Schneider play easy bottom-pairing minutes (not when a half-million dollar guy could do it a la Dipenta). Sure, Schneider did have a miserable 6-game playoffs, but that's true of a lot of Ducks, and I'd consider his regular season more indicative of his ability.

One other area Schneider could have improved last year was in the actual function of replacing Niedermayer -- Schneider ended up missing nearly half the games that Niedermayer sat out because of an ankle injury. Still, if you want to see some measure of Schneider's impact, the 15 pre-Niedermayer games he missed the Ducks had a 9.9% power play effectiveness, and the 19 pre-Niedermayer games that Schneider played in the power play jumped to 21.6%.

Is Schneider overpaid? I guess that depends on how he's used and who he's compared against. If I had a choice of landing 1 year of Schneider at $5.6M, 8 years of Brian Campbell at $7.1M, or 6 years of Wade Redden at $6.5 M, I'd probably take the first option. He may not be as capable or as sturdy, but it's a one-year gamble for lesser money, and he comes with a better shot (at least he scored more goals than the other two). Basically, if the Ducks had the money, I'd be all over keeping Schneider next year.

2. That said, I understand some of the reasons GMs passed on Schneider on waivers a week ago.

By not allowing Brian Burke an easy out to his over-the-salary-cap conundrum, GMs could not only stick it to Burke but force him to sweeten the Schneider deal with additional assets. GMs were playing coy; the ones at the front of the waiver list (generally the teams with cap room) imagined that they could wait for Schneider's re-entry waivers and nab the defender for half his salary. There was also talk of forcing Burke to throw in Bobby Ryan or a valued draft pick to make the deal even sweeter.

Basically, Burke was in a shitty position and everyone knew it. He had to unload Schneider before the North American season started, and so long as rival GMs could avoid accommodating that, the price for Schneider would be forcibly lowered. Somebody was going to get the privelege of fleecing Brian Burke in a trade, and by ignoring Schneider on waivers, GMs could improve the chances that they would be the ones to get that opportunity.

The main problem that rival GMs had, though, was that they had to snub Burke's trade requests collectively in order to drive Schneider's price down, but in the end only one of the clubs was actually going to reap the benefit of this collective action. It became a bit of a game theory exercise, where clubs had to weigh the benefits of forcing Burke's hand with the likelihood that they could individually collect on that pressure. For his part, Burke played his hand brilliantly, never crying poor or crying foul, but using that "don't let me give Schneider to somebody else" angle to get decent value back for the cap-necessitated move.

3. Trade assessment: thumbs way up, but there's probably a Part 2 coming. I have to admit, the Schneider outcome scared me a good deal these past few weeks, as the number of trade suitors dwindled down to a handful while the need to move Schneider's salary increased. It was tough to guess what Burke might need to do in order to move the salary, and talks of dropping Bobby Ryan or future assets to solve a short-term problem wasn't a comforting notion at all.

The fact that Burke managed to move Schneider without mortgaging the future means that by my eye, this trade is a whopping success. The Ducks did pick up some $1.8M in salary with Ken Klee and Brad Larsen, but neither is signed beyond this year so it's not even a long-term repercussion.

While this move does put the Ducks under the salary cap ceiling, there is still likely another salary-shedding move yet to come in order to fit in the Finnish Flash. Teemu Selanne remains unsigned, and he's even talking about the possibility of wanting a two-year deal from the Ducks. While normally I'd advise against such a contract for a player over 35, especially in the wake of the issues of Schneider's similar situation, in this case I'm probably for gambling on Teemu. Really the main motivator for me is cheapness -- by salary cap law Selanne will have to sign a bargain contract in order to fit on this year's roster, maybe less than a million, and if he's willing to extend that minimal salary another year, why that's hardly a gamble at all. If the Ducks move enough salary, however, that Teemu gets signed for something like $2M, at that point I'm more in favor of doing 1-year deals for Teemu.

At any rate, I don't really know what this next move will be. There seems enough movable bodies among the forwards and defensemen now that there's lots of possibilities. Still, it's important to note that the Schneider trade has brought the Ducks out of crisis mode, and for that I'm excited. It's rare that a salary dump like this one can be so well-received in both participating cities, but in this case I think it's warranted. The Thrashers have landed themselves a legitimate scoring threat on the blueline, and the Ducks have gained cap compliance without selling out the future. Great work, Brian Burke. If you ever decide not to move to Toronto, I'll support extending your tenure.

Go Ducks.

Schneider to Atlanta

The Atlanta Thrashers have acquired defenseman Mathieu Schneider from the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Ken Klee, forward Brad Larsen and a minor-league prospect. LINK.

Per NHLNumbers, Ken Klee will make $1.25 million this coming year, and Brad Larsen will make $560k (cap hit $535k). Klee will be a UFA next summer; Larsen will be an RFA.

More details from the OC Register's Dan Wood. Discuss, and I'll write something later.

The BoC Collaboration is a Failure

Lauri Tukonen has been traded to the Dallas Stars for Richard Clune. I guess the Stars are just collecting all our failed right wingers.

I can't say I understand this move. Clune isn't even a top 20 prospect in Dallas' crappy system and split time between the ECHL and the AHL at the age of 21, the same as Tukonen. He does get a lot of penalty minutes and could eventually fill the role of a John Zeiler. He also fills a void in our left wing prospect pool, but that's like saying that cancer's a good thing because it gives you a chance to buy a new hat. Actually, it's nothing like that, but you get what I'm saying.

Oh well. I actually like Tukonen and I hope he finds some measure of success in Dallas. He ended up not being worth that 11th overall pick but, like I said earlier, I think he can find success as a third line grinder... which means he'll fit in perfectly in Dallas.

Guest Post: The Kings Don't Want Your Detritus

(Alexander Dubcek is a Kings fan and a filthy commie. Here's his take on rumor mongers and the shitty trade proposals they shit out. Shit.)


Dear Rest of the NHL Universe,

Hi. You've probably forgotten about us. I can't blame you. We haven't done anything to warrant your attention in a few years, except when you pause for a moment to ponder the lottery (which we always manage to screw up one way or another).

It's easy to make a joke of hockey in L.A. (Just look at our abysmal record over the past, oh, forty-one years.) Kevin Lowe takes a potshot at the Ducks, but no one notices the Kings. We're too pathetic to be called pathetic. You can't be arsed to expend the effort to belittle us, even though Kings fans might more fairly be called "pathetic" for shelling out big bucks to turn out in droves (more than 94 percent of capacity) for the train wreck known as the Brian Willsie Experience and the Kevin Dallman Project.

Not that I'm complaining. We're a sufficiently self-hating bunch that we can bemoan and belittle our own foibles without any outside help, thank you very much.

No, the bigger problem comes on those rare occasions when folks from hockey "hotbeds" and "traditional" markets actually try to say something about us.

Plenty of rumors get bandied about in the offseason, some of which even involve the Kings. It's about the only time we register on the radar of media types outside L.A. But Canadian writers, East Coast writers and commenters all around the league don't bother to do their homework on reporting these rumors. (Is it too much to ask to check out Rich Hammond's site to check your crackpot theory?)

So we get things like the New York Post speculating Sean Avery could re-sign with the Kings with Marc Crawford canned. (Never mind that Dean Lombardi, who put Avery on "double secret probation" at the beginning of Avery's last season in L.A., is still calling the shots as GM.) Or all the wild "Malkin to L.A." rumors before the draft (a great move for a team sorely in need of defense, rather than offense).

And now, the new one making the rounds, a threesome involving Ottawa, Chicago and the Kings, a rumor in which every Ottawa hack is indulging in their wettest dreams of prying away our best players for a pu pu platter of bad contracts. Here are some of the rumors Ottawa fans keep throwing around as if they're plausible deals that would send Martin Gerber (not good enough to start on three different Stanley Cup Finals squads) and some bags of pucks to the Kings:

"But I am hearing Kopitar and a prospect is from the Kings."

"If the Kings are giving up Kopitar and a prospect they better be getting something serious in return and if they aren't lets cut Chicago out of the mix and just get Kopitar..."

""I can't see them moving Kopitar either. Frolov maybe???"

""Spezza to the Kings from the Sens. Vermette and Neil plus a pick to the Hawks. Prospect plus pick to the Kings from the Hawks. Kopitar from the Kings to the Sens. Barker and Khabibulin from Chicago.

"Ottawa gets loaded somehow. Chicago unloads salary and gets some good player value in return. Spezza's 7 mil contract helps LA get closer to the cap and also gives them a potential superstar talent in return plus they get a prospect and pick out of it too."

"To LA: G Khabibulin D Barker

To Chi: C Vermette RW Neil

To Ott: C Anze Kopitar"

"I could see...

To LA: Meszaros Vermette 1st Round Pick (Ottawa)

To Chicago Neil Gerber

To Ottawa Khabibulin Kopitar Barker"

And, well, it just goes on from there. Supposedly Ottawa's a good hockey market (being the capital of Canadia and all), but clearly good hockey market does not equal fan base with a clue.

So, please, Ottawa, Edmonton, New York, and all other parts north and east of L.A. -- if you're just going to pull these rumors out of your ass, do us a favor and keep ignoring us.

To paraphrase an old axiom: If you don't have anything intelligent to say, you shouldn't say anything at all.

***

Why do we as fans hate bad trade proposals so much? It could be that we're just offended by the sheer stupidity of them, or we're upset at the lack of respect the player on our team receives, but I don't think that quite explains it. I think I get upset because I am presented with a world where the Kings don't have that player. That's okay when it's someone like Armstrong or Preissing, but when it's someone like Johnson I get scared. I'm scared because I'm confronted with the reality that someone like Kopitar or Brown or Robitaille or Hrudey will not be a King forever, that time will pass and that someday they'll be gone. I know Kopitar won't be on the Kings forever, but I don't want to think about it for the same reason I don't think about my parents' deaths. It's legitimately terrifying to me, and I cannot help but react violently to it. Rationally, I know these trade proposals are all bullshit and they wouldn't happen in a million years, but that irrational lizard part of my brain can't help but respond. I avoid sites like HockeyBuzz not because they're retarded (and they are), but because if I read them I'd probably suffer a stroke within the week. It's easier for me to just say, "Fuck you!" than actually consider the proposal and its consequences. So, fuck you, I guess.

BoC United: Schneider for Tukonen

The Los Angeles Kings need a leader. Right now they're deplorable on defense and need someone to help muster their woeful defensive unit into something resembling a fighting force. They need a leader on the power play, preferably left-handed. Most importantly, they need a solid, dependable player who can show this young team how to act and perform in the NHL. Oh, and he should be Jewish.

Not him. He's a Muslim Christian, not a Jew.

The Anaheim Ducks need space. They're right up against the cap and they need room for Teemu Selanne. They have a plethora of defenseman and can move one of them for the requisite cap space. They need to find a team that has plenty of cap space and needs a defenseman. They can't take too much salary back in return, so hopefully that team will have plenty of prospects or picks next year to trade. The Ducks have one more good run in them; they just need another team to help them out.


Friends, I come before you as a Ducks hater from before the team took the ice. I've mocked, ridiculed, blasphemed and slandered the Ducks for as long as I've known the word "gaytarded." But it's foolish pride to let one's own biases get in the way of what's good for the franchise, and what we have here is a good opportunity. The Kings need a veteran defenseman, the Ducks need cap space. Why shouldn't the two teams help on another? Earl, Ken, and I have discussed this and we have come to the same conclusion: the Ducks should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen.


Ducks fans might feel this deal is a little one-sided. ("Why should we trade a good defenseman for some guy and also I'm a douche bag?") First off, assholes, the Ducks aren't really dealing from a position of strength; teams know that the Ducks are severely hindered if they don't move some salary around. Plus, you can't really afford to get a roster player in return because you need the space, so it's pretty much just down to prospects. Secondly, Tukonen is a unique guy. He was drafted 11th overall in 2004 but has been done in by injuries and under-performance so far. He needs a fresh start with another team; the Kings have always had an expectation that he'll become a superstar, but with another team he can focus on becoming a solid complementary player. He's great in the corners and an excellent forechecker, attributes greatly appreciated by Brian Burke. His career maps out similarly to Rob Niedermayer and the Ducks could help guide him. If you want the Kings to throw in a 4th or something, fine, whatever. The only other real option are the Ottawa Senators, and I don't see those two teams matching up.


Kings fans might wonder why they should help the Ducks. ("Why should we give them space to sign Teemu Selanne and possibly win the Cup again?") First off, you beautiful babies, we should do this deal because it's good for us. The Kings need a power play quarterback and Schneider is good at it. It's retarded to not do something because the Ducks might also gain something. Plus, if the Ducks do win the Stanley Cup, they can't rub it in our faces because they wouldn't have been able to without our help. I mean, let's be honest, this may be the closest we come to winning the Cup for a while. Losing Tukonen will hurt, but the Kings already have Dustin Brown, Ted Purcell, Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds and Marc-Andre Cliche at the right wing position. And hey, maybe the Kings should do it because it's what's best for Tukonen.

So, there you have it. The Kings should trade Mathieu Schneider for Lauri Tukonen. It might feel awkward to play one another, but we'll get used to it. Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler once set aside their differences to come to an agreement in 1938; if they can do it, why not the Kings and the Ducks?

Summer Battle of Northern California reading

Sharks coverage on BOC has dropped off a little since the end of the season, and the fact that Northern California has essentially been on fire for 3 straight weeks does not appear to be a major factor. Drawing on a flaming Wild Wing and a thick low lying layer of smoke for inspiration, here is a short recap from Sharkspage of what has gone down in the land of cheap software and expensive offensive defenseman:

• Max Giese of Sharkspage posted a very thorough 2008 Sharks Entry Draft (ptII) review article, with contributions from several NHL scouts and a few comments by other draft related sources. The first part of the Sharks 2008 Draft Review written by yours truely is available here. Included in that post is a video clip of Darren Pang expressing shock that Phoenix Coyotes first round selection Viktor Tikonov spoke English. Yes, San Jose residents can occasionally be accused of speaking English.


• Free agent defenseman Brian Campbell signs 8-year, $56.8 million contract with Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers sign Patrick Rissmiller. Judas, thy name is Brian Campbell. One problem many fans in San Jose have with what went down is the fact that his departure was a foregone conclusion. Instead of feigning that taking $7+ million with Chicago, Atlanta or Ottawa was a difficult decision, acknowledge the fact beforehand and fans have more respect for you. Campbell is tremendously gifted with speed and skating ability matched by few defenseman in the NHL. He also basically evaporated against Calgary and Dallas in the playoffs. If you are brought in to spark the Sharks transition and move the puck on ice, and you consistently hesitate and take it back behind your own net, there are going to be questions. Major questions for Chicago next season: how effectively will he be on defense, will he transform the Blackhawks power play, and how well will a young team respond to Campbell in a leadership role.


• San Jose Sharks sign defenseman Rob Blake to 1-year deal adding a power-play quarterback, report Sharks are pursuing Tampa Bay's Dan Boyle. A number of Kings fans are noting Rob Blake's declining production over the last season. In San Jose he will play a much different role, as the Sharks will have three solid defensive pairings they can use in any situation. Blake will be counted on more to bomb shots on net from the power play than to provide a #1 defensive role. I have a feeling with Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, Clowe, Cheechoo and Michalek fighting for rebounds, Blake's numbers are not going to look too bad after 2008-09.


• Veteran defenseman Craig Rivet traded to Buffalo for 2009, 2010 2nd rounders. This is a trade that had to be made for salary cap considerations, but one that nobody likes north of the grapevine.


• Dan Boyle, Brad Lukowich, and Sharks general manager Doug Wilson discussed the recent trades on a conference call with local media.


• Sharks Trade Analysis: Blake, Boyle and Lukowich add missing pieces of the puzzle for Sharks power play and playoff problems. A lot of words essentially boil down to the fact that Boyle could have a bigger impact in San Jose than the brief Campbell experiment, and Rob Blake is the type of proven veteran who has been there and done beat up a lot of Anaheim Ducks.


• Defenseman Christian Ehrhoff signs 3 year, $9.3 million contract. This shores up a large chunk of the Sharks blueline for the foreseeable future, but salary cap issues could force a trade for Kyle McLaren. The future beyond Rob Blake is also a little less clear with Matt Carle, Ty Wishart and a 1st round draft selection headed to Tampa. AHL rookie Derek Joslin should be next in line, and will take more of a leadership role in Worcester this season. Hard hitting Boston College fresheman defenseman Nick Petrecki, who won a National Championship this season, remains as the Sharks top overall defensive prospect. The Sharks may need him to regulate at HP Pavilion before the end of his four year run in college.


• Sharks hire Stanley Cup winning Detroit Red Wings assistant coach Todd McLellan to be the 7th head coach in San Jose franchise history. Some fans were a little irrated at the lack of questions asked by the media at the press conference, there is a hand held 6 minute video of McLellan answering questions from the AP's Greg Beacham, a local television reporter, and from Tony Khing of the Sharks included in that post. One rumor has Trent Yawney as a possible assistant coach.

That is all I have for now. War Sandis Ozolinsh for President.

What a Difference a Few Days Make

Only a few days ago Sharks fans were wondering what Doug Wilson was doing (or not doing) as every team in the league seemed to be doing something in Free Agency. I mentioned here how I was glad Wilson was being fiscally responsible as other GM's were throwing money around. Well, in the last 24 hours the Sharks have 3 new D-men and (if I am doing my math correctly) 4 Stanley Cup rings. To summarize:

-Sign Rob Blake (1 yr/5mill): overpaid for an aging D-man but it will be nice to have a D-man who will shoot from the point. (I can picture Kings fans now "but who knows where the shot is going?")

-Trade Matt Carle, Ty Wishart and picks for Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich: At first I was happy about this trade, but including Wishart is a hefty price. I was thinking Wishart was one of the closest we had to being brought up and given a chance. Wilson must have a lot of faith in youngsters Petrecki, Joslin and others. For the 2nd year in a row, Mike has gotten one of his favorite players on to the Sharks (JR, now Boyle). NO! we better not be getting Forsberg next. The random Dan Boyle superhero action figure he bought on eBay a few years ago needs to be brought out.

-Trade Craig Rivet for two 2nd rounders: I figure this is a salary dump. Lukowich bascially fills the role of Rivet at 1/2 the price. Rivet makes 3.5 per while Lukowich makes 1.65 then 1.8.

All of this movement and I don't think Wilson is done. If the rumored signing of Bret Hedican is true, that would give us 8 D-men. Here are the proposed lines as I see them.

Thornton-Cheechoo-Michalek
Pavelski-Marleau-Setoguchi
Mitchell-Grier-Clowe
Roenick-Goc-Shelley

Blake-Vlasic
Boyle-Lukowich
Ehrhoff-Murray

Hedican?-McLaren

Nabby-Boucher

Not a bad lineup. Kudos to Doug Wilson. It is up to you boys!!!!

Dan Boyle is awesome (and a Shark)

I say "Dan Boyle is awesome" because that tagline was a running joke between me and Cheechew and some of our mutual friends for a number of years. I've always thought Boyle was a great player and secretly wished the Sharks would acquire him somehow.

And now they have. For (allegedly) Matt Carle, a first rounder, a fourth rounder, and a prospect. Details will be worked out later and made official. The Sharks also get Brad Lukowich in return.

More later on the salary cap aspect of it. This, along with resigning Christian Ehrhoff and Ryane Clowe, will put the Sharks over their self-imposed budget but not to the cap. I imagine Kyle McLaren will be waived soon.

Update: Here's part of the salary-cap answer. Craig Rivet was just traded to Buffalo for two second-round picks.

Your defense is now Dan Boyle, Rob Blake, Christian Ehrhoff, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Douglas Murray, Brad Lukowich, Kyle McLaren.

Kings Acquire Typical French Player

The Kings traded Ned Lukacevic and Patrick Hersley for Denis Gauthier and a 2nd-round pick in 2010. Denis Gauthier, you may remember, was the defenseman for Phoenix that gave Jeremy Roenick a concussion in a preseason game a few years ago, causing Sean Avery to comment, ""I think it was typical of most French guys in our league with a visor on, running around and playing tough and not back anything up." The Flyers recently waived Gauthier to make room for their bloated contracts, so the Kings do the Flyers a favor by absorbing his $2.2 million dollar contract and pick up a 2nd for their troubles. Not bad.

Gauthier is a big hitter but kind of sucks at everything else. He'll probably play low minutes and hurt someone this season. The Kings may suck next year, but they're sure going to start some shit:

Jarret Stoll: 122 hits
Matt Greene: 64 hits (in 46 games)
Denis Gauthier: 111 hits (in 43 games)

That on top of Brown, Johnson, Ivanans and Blake. Oh, and with the acquisition of Stoll and now Gauthier, I'd say this ensure the Kings aren't going to sign Sean Avery.

Saying Goodbye to Lubo

RK: Okay, Lubo, here we are. Go on, get out of the car.
Lubo: Voite for Lubo!
RK: Alright, now go.
Lubo: L-Lubo?
RK: This is your home now, Lubo, you'll be free here. There's lots of forwards to play with and you won't be tied down like you were in LA. It's for the best.
*Lubo takes step towards the car
RK: (teary-eyed) Please, Lubo, this isn't easy for me. Just go and be happy.
Lubo: Lubo!
RK: Go on, git! I never liked you anyway! You're too small and you always have a whimsical look on your face!
*Lubo whimpers and runs off
RK: (whispers) I love you.


Like most Dean Lombardi trades, this one left me extremely confused. With most Lombardi trades, though, I'll usually feel better about them an hour or so later; that didn't happen with this one. You know how a kid feels when his best friend moves away? That's how I feel right now. Rationally I'm pissed because Lubo was one of the best players on the team and emotionally I'm pissed because he was the sweetest guy ever.* Lombardi always talks about raising kids to be Kings, and then he turns around and trades the one veteran brought up through the Kings' system? Not to mention that he traded him to Siberia 48 hours before his no-trade clause kicked in. That's harsh.

*Plus, I was going to write a fake interview with Lubo this summer wherein he would claim he runs the Kings and stabbed Sean Avery in the spleen. It needed work but it would have been good stuff. Now you're going to get some half-assed routine about Drew Doughty being fat. Thanks a lot, Dean.

I loved all the little things about Lubo: the way he snuck in the back door to rocket a one-timer on the power play, the surprised look on his face when his teammates congratulated him after a goal, everything. There's an awesome scene in Luc Robitaille's FSN show (the one that features his last game) where Luc's on the team plane and comes upon Pavol Demitra and Lubo playing cards with Craig Conroy and Jeremy Roenick. They talk for a bit and then Lubo says something to Pavol in Slovakian and they both burst out laughing. Nobody knows what they're laughing about though, so Robitaille looks uncomfortable and then just kind of moves on. It cracked me up.

Oh man, he's sticking his little tongue out!

The Kings got two fairly good players back in the deal: Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene. Stoll is a typical Lombardi pick-up, a character guy with a lot of skill that has been sidetracked by injuries (in his case, a concussion). He's got a good shot and can play both power play and penalty kill. He will center either the 2nd or 3rd line, depending on how they decide to use Handzus. Best case scenario: Stoll gets his game back and pots thirty goals while playing with Frolov. Worst case scenario, or what will happen because it's the Kings: he continues to suck and he and Handzus team up to form the worst 2nd center combo in NHL history. Also, Stoll is dating Rachel Hunter, so I guess my dad will have someone to look at during the game. At the very least this means Tom Preissing will have a shot with Tawny Kitean.

Also picked up was Matt Greene, who is a monster. Greene is a big defenseman and offers absolutely no offense. Basically, think Aaron Miller. He takes too many penalties and his lack of offensive skill kills a lot of his worth, but he's what the Kings needed. I don't know who he'll play with because the Kings aren't done with their defense, but he should anchor our penalty kill for a few years to come.

I would still rather have Lubo over those two players, although they do fill a big need for our team. The only way I'll be happy with this is if the Kings turn around and trade for Jay Buowmeester. It's unlikely, but the Kings have been trading for a lot of guys in that 23-25 range and they did draft a number of 20 year-olds this last draft that would replace any prospects we trade. If their plan is to sign Brad Stuart again, I'll flip. A defense consisting of Jack Johnson, Matt Greene, Rob Blake, Brad Stuart, Tom Preissing and Drew Doughty does not fill me with excitement. And it could never replace Lubo.

Poor Lu- whoa, holy shit.

If I could have a quick word with Edmonton fans: look, I don't like you and you have a grudging respect for me, but go easy on Lubo. Don't put a lot of pressure on him just because you're paying him $7 million dollars next year. I know you'll get frustrated because he's small and he'll never work the puck out of the corner, but he means well. He tries hard and he's very sneaky and he and Souray will give you a fantastic power play. Treat him well and make sure he gets plenty of vitamins because if you don't watch him he'll just eat candy and get a tummy ache. Oh, and here's his ear medicine; make sure you give it to him before he goes to bed.

Well, I guess that's it then. I guess I'll leave you with this:



Godspeed you lovable imp.

Trade

Kings trade Lubomir Visnovsky for Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene.

I'll have more tomorrow, but right now I'll just say: fuck.

Trade Possibilities to Keep the Anaheim Ducks Under the Salary Cap

It is already official that the Ducks will have to trade someone this offseason if veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer and forward Teemu Selanne decide to come back to the team after contemplating retirement.

Although the jury is still out, the rumored players to be on the chopping block are:

Todd Bertuzzi – a power forward that did not live up to expectations after his first year in Anaheim. He is currently expected to make $4 million this up-coming season which at 32 and production down makes him an easy trade for Anaheim to a team looking for help. He could draw interest from teams such as Florida, Columbus and who knows where else.

Ken’s take: I was really disappointed with Bertuzzi, he had a hard adjustment to Orange County, but I don’t think he will be Burke’s first option to trade. I look for him to remain in Anaheim.

Todd Marchant – a grinding forward making $2.66 million in 08/09. He was a huge help to the Ducks in winning the Stanley Cup, but is not a huge producer, even for a 33 year old. Not as notable a trade target as Bertuzzi but still would be good for a team.

Ken’s take: Marchant is the third most likely in this list to be traded. He is a good player and doesn’t make much of a dip into the cap. His age is a slight issue, but nothing too serious

Mathieu Schneider – a great offensive defenseman, and was brought in last season to replace Scott Niedermayer during his retirement phase, instead when Niedermayer returned Schneider added great depth on the blue line. His offensive talent saw him light the lamp often in one of final regular season game against the Kings. At 38, Schneider is the oldest player on the Ducks team, and will be collecting $5.75 million in 08/09. Schneider seems likely to be the player the Ducks most want to get rid of. The $5.75million would be nice to have back in the bank.

Ken’s take: If Schneider is the one subtracted from the team, the Ducks could trade for a defenseman worth half as much, and spend the remaining money on Teemu Selanne, and signing another forward or defenseman. The Ducks know they need to improve some small issues over last season such as goal scoring, and with that $5.75 million back, it seems best. Schneider’s age has me wondering why he isn’t one contemplating retirement, as he is older than Niedermayer (33) and Selanne (37).

All three of these players would be good choices, and Brian Burke will certainly get the best deal possible for his team. Before any decisions are made though the Ducks need to know the return status of Teemu and Scott, which is the only way the trade will truly matter.

For example: If both leave the team, then Burke only needs to worry about obtaining enough money for Corey Perry and getting that money should be fairly easily done with a small trade.

Source: Salary figures came from nhlnumber.com

Mike Camalleri Gets Traded, Rudy Kelly Does a Live Blog

Calgary gets Cammalleri, the Kings gets the 12th overall pick from Anaheim, Anaheim gets 2 selections later in the 1st round. Holy shit. Good luck in Calgary, Mike.

Who do the Kings draft? Colton Teubert, maybe. This shit is crazy.

Live-blog Edit:

Fuck it, I'm going to watch this anyway, might as well write about it.

-I forgot that the Kings interviewed the 2nd tier forward prospects, so Lombardi might be focusing on one of them.

-Len Barrie owns the Lightning now? How the fuck does this guy have any money? I remember when he was on the Kings and he almost killed my poor brother. He'll probably end up trading Vinny Lecavalier and eating Stamkos or something.

-Doughty! Great right-hand shot, incredibly smart, should line up next to Jack Johnson in the future. Woohoo!

-If Doughty goes straight to the NHL, does that mean Hickey is ticketed for Juniors again? I can't imagine the Kings breaking in Doughty, Hickey and Johnson next season.

-I don't understand why people keep bringing up Doughty being fat. The best hockey player I ever played with looked fat with his shirt off, but he was a Goddamn dynamo on skates. The muscles you use for hockey aren't the ones that show up when you're at the beach. Besides, I'd rather have a guy who is smart and needs to get in shape than a guy who's cut but still needs to develop hockey sense.

-I'm still not sure what to think of that Olli Jokinen trade. I like Jokinen even though he looks like a giant baby because he used to be a King, but I guess I'll have to start hating him. That's an awful lot of defense for Phoenix to give up though, isn't it? Oh well, I guess I'll just assume it's retarded. That's called professionalism, friends.

-Jesus, couldn't they put the 1st rounders a little closer to the stage? Poor Pierre McGuire is going to have an aneurysm coming up with facts while the players stumble down to the platform.

-Can we send some A/V guys up to Canada? I haven't watched a single NHL event that isn't stilted and awkward as hell.

-Oh hey, you know who the GM of the New York Islanders is? Garth Snow. That never fails to crack me up.

-Does it creep anyone else out how much Bob McKenzie and Pierre McGuire know about these kids? I would get a restraining order if I were a potential draftee. Do they have Dateline in Canada?

-Ah, the smooth baritone of John Davidson. Hey, what the hell? No one wants to hear some guy named Jarmo, put Davidson back on.

-God, Canadians make me so mad because they're so unassuming. I mean, Alex Pietrangelo said he's never owned a car! Where the hell are all the assholes? I get the feeling I could rob a bank up there just by walking in and saying, "Hey, I'm American, give me your money." It's an entire country of Ned Flanders'.

-My brother pointed out another person that looks like Nikita Filatov:



-That was sad. They showed Cliff Fletcher, the GM for Toronto until Brian Burke jumps ship in Anaheim, on the jumbotron in Ottawa and the entire crowd booed him. He looked around confused, either because he didn't know why people were booing or because he didn't know where he was. Either way, don't boo an old man, Ottawa. That's just rude.

-Someone needs to get Pierre McGuire a towel; I think he just got a little too excited over Luke Schenn.

-I guess I was a little too hard on Pierre McGuire; Schenn was named Best Defenseman of this last year's World Junior Championships... no, wait, that was Drew Doughty. Maybe it's because Luke Schenn played all by himself in a shutdown role... no wait, he played with Thomas Hickey. Well, Luke Schenn did get picked for Toronto, and that's something.

-Holy shit, RJ Umberger was worth a 1st round draft pick? How the fuck does that happen? Columbus better hope Brian Campbell signs with an Eastern Conference team.

-There we go, now there's an asshole. Nikita Filatov doesn't take any of your stupid Canadian questions, TSN. They asked him who he modeled his game after and he said Sidney Crosby. Really, Nikita? You model your game after a guy 2 years older than you? You're not Nikolai Gogol, you're supposed to make sense.

-Colin Wilson gets drafted by Nashville and Pierre McGuire takes a second to mention that although Wilson was born in the United States and wants to play for the US, he should really be considered Canadian because he learned how to play in Canada. This is awesome. I guess McGuire's technically correct, although I can't blame Wilson for wanting to be American; who wouldn't?

-I think it would be awesome if Wayne Gretzky just snapped one time and shouted, "Shut the fuck up! I know I'm fucking amazing, stop cheering for me! I always hated you people anyway!" Of course, you know he loves it because he always announces the draft picks. Give Rick Tocchett a shot, will ya?

-Aaaand we have our first mullet of the night. Who had a Dane in their pool? Congratulations, Michael Boedker; you truly are a "Great Dane." *Gun shot

-Wait... did Wayne Gretzky just call his goaltender "Evgeni Brzygalov?" What the fuck? You're the COACH OF THE TEAM, who do you fuck that up? Also, it was kind of sad that he mentioned that they traded for Jokinen to match up with other top centers in the Pacific and then mentioned Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Thornton, Mike Modano... and that's it. C'mon, man, Modano's not better than Kopitar!

-Wait, hold on, Luc Bourdon died? When the fuck did that happen? Was I in Europe? That sucks. Also, I think you can guarantee you're going to hell when you hear a prospect died and the first thing you think is, "Wow... thank God the Kings didn't trade for him." I'm sorry.

-Huh. They were talking to Cody Hodgson, a forward picked by Vancouver, and they casually dropped that he was probably the best player at the World Juniors. I think that's news to Viktor Tikhonov, the MVP of that tournament. Jesus, Canada, you won the fucking thing, let it go.

-You know what's funny? Kyle Beach was widely assumed to be ticketed for Anaheim, not because he was skilled or because he fit a need; it was purely because he was an asshole. He ended up going to Chicago, but that's quite the rep they've got going in Anaheim.

-Okay, Kings are up. Weee!

-Looks like the Kings are trading their #12 pick. Aaaand.... it's the #12 for the 13th pick and a 3rd rounder in '09. Is Dean Lombardi some sort of evil genius? Sometimes I think he's smarter than everyone else, other times I think he's John Nash.

-I'm calling Zach Boychuk right here at #13.

-I'm calling myself as an idiot. Colton Teubert goes instead. Let's see what we have now:

O'Sullivan-Kopitar-Brown
Frolov-Boyle-Purcell
Cliche-Lewis-Moller
Westgarth-Holloway-Simmonds

Doughty-Johnson
Hickey-Teubert
Martinez-Piskula

Bernier
Zatkoff
Quick

I'm aroused. Can I just get in a time machine and hop forward 3 years?

-No "Brian Murray lisps" joke, no "Brian Murray lisps" joke...

-Oh hey, the Ducks are up. Haha, Brian Burke started off by saying, "It's great to be back in Ottawa." I don't care what anyone says, I like the guy; he's funny and he's an asshole. Anyway, the Ducks draft some douche bag and he'll be a bust. Next!

-This is confusing: why would a guy named "Chet Pickard" be a perfect name for Nashville to draft? Chet is a name associated with New England, not the South. I don't get Canada.

-Paul Holmgren looks like a cross between Kirk Douglas and Bret Hull.

-Michael Del Zotto gets drafted by the Rangers and proceeds to take 9,000 minutes to get to the podium. "Hey, Adrian Brody+Sydney Crosby, hurry the fuck up, I got some drinkin' to do!" That was Chet the Squirrel; I kinda wish I hadn't invited him.

-Alright, Chet and Squirrely both overruled me, so I'm going to have to bow out. Just to recap: the Kings are going to win the Stanley Cup in the next 5 years. You guys think I'm an asshole now? Wait 'til the Kings are actually good.

Indistinct Chatter

-Hockey's Future writer David Ranier posted a Kings Draft Preview yesterday. It tells you everything you need to know about the Kings before the draft on Friday. He think the Kings will trade down and select Alex Pietrangelo, the big, mobile defenseman who probably has the highest upside of any player in the draft. Who would the Kings trade down to? Probably a team that wanted Nikita Filatov.

-There's a rumor making the rounds that a Joni Pitkanen for Mike Cammalleri swap may be in the works. It's from Eklund, which means that it's probably made up, but the deal does kind of make sense. Just thought you people might want to know these things.

-This trade was offered on Hockey's Future by some guy and I think it's my favorite trade proposal in the history of the internet:

Jack Johnson
#2 pick

for:

Mattias Ohlund
Sammi Salo
Matt Pettinger

I think the Kings should do it.

Who's up for a little game theory?

Kuklas Korner has a piece today on soon-to-be-UFA Ryan Malone and how Columbus might trade for his rights Philadelphia-style in order to get a pre-July-1st negotiating window:

An NHL source said that Malone has been low-balled twice by the Penguins and is ready to leave July 1 as an unrestricted free agent. Malone’s rights could be traded before that day, of course, and the Blue Jackets are a likely destination.

The source said the Penguins have already made the Blue Jackets an offer for Malone’s rights.

Now this is a move that puzzled me when Philadelphia did it last summer with the Nashville Predators (Hartnell and Timonen), and it's a move that puzzles me still today. For certain, I can understand Nashville's and Pittsburgh's motivation -- why lose a player for nothing July 1st if some team is willing to pay assets mid-June? As for the other parties, I really fail to see what the benefits are for Ryan Malone or the Columbus Blue Jackets.

I threw together a simple game theory table together below that oversimplifies the choices of Columbus and Malone, but essentially Columbus has a choice: outbid 29 other teams for Malone, or not. Malone also has a choice: sign before July 1st, or wait.

	Malone will sign before July 1st	Malone won't sign until July 1st
CBJ will offer the highest bid	CBJ loses a draft pick unnecessarily	CBJ loses a draft pick unnecessarily
CBJ will not offer the highest bid	Malone loses salary unnecessarily	CBJ loses Malone, both sides are indifferent to the trade

I've included some loose payoffs where the decisions intersect. If Columbus is willing to pay more for Malone than anyone else, there seems to be no benefit to make a pre-July trade; they can win his services on July 1st without surrendering a draft pick. If another team is willing to pay more than Columbus, however, then there is no benefit for Malone to sign with the Jackets in June.

In other words, there is no great reason I can see for Columbus to trade for Malone's negotiating rights, at least with the payoffs as I've structured it. At best, both sides are indifferent about the trade (if Malone signs elsewhere July 1st), but in all other outcomes one of the parties is worse off because of the trade.

Now I know I've made some strong assumptions here (NHL teams act rationally, or that Malone only considers dollars when making a UFA decision), and I haven't considered all the payoffs: one thing that Philly did get from its trade-and-sign last year was an improved perception from the UFA class ("Those Flyers are serious about winning"), which may have helped them land Briere. Still, even with the turnaround success of the Flyers, I'm dubious as to what advantage they gained by the Nashville trade. Couldn't they have signed Hartnell and Timonen on July 1st, kept their draft pick, and still had that success?

What do you think? Is there a hole in my logic? Comments are open for your criticisms.

Is Brian Burke a Be-Leaf-er?

Now I'm not normally a guy who likes to speculate on rumors very much, but I guess Toronto journalists are salivating at the thought of Brian Burke filling the Maple Leafs GM vacancy when he's done in Anaheim. To my understanding, Burke has committed to this season as GM for the Ducks, but hasn't signed to any extension beyond that.

Ken Armer is a solid Ducks blogger that I've just found out about (I added The Puck Drop in the Ducks sidebar, which features a breaking M.A. Bergeron trade!), and at Bleacher Report he gives a solid enough rundown of what's basically a "wait and see" situation. Tom Benjamin is a bit more pessimistic, and suggests that the Ducks should trade Burke's contract to the Leafs if he doesn't sign a long term deal.

I can't speak that well about what Brian Burke wants, nor should I be a credible advisor about what he should want, but even so I haven't really been stressing about these rumours (hint: use a "u" when the rumours come from Canada). If Brian Burke really does covet the Toronto spotlight and spending budget, if he really does bleed Maple Sap, I'll wish the guy well. Burkie has been a pretty awesome GM for the Ducks, and if he seeks bluer pastures, at least he'll have left the team in manageable shape.

Two things I want to express about Brian Burke:

1. He's gotten lucky at times. Obviously Burke does deserve praise for combining the likes of Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, and Teemu Selanne into the nucleus of a cup-winning team, but in saying that there was also an element of luck in acquiring any of them. When Scott became a free agent during the lockout, Burke was fortunate enough to have signing rights to his brother Rob. When Selanne was signing for pennies that same summer, Burke obliged, but couldn't have foreseen the dramatic resurrection of the Finnish Flash. When Pronger forced Kevin Lowe to make a trade, Burke was fortunate enough to have the cap room and the assets to swing a deal while other teams tied their own hands.

While Burkie does get kudos for that trio of moves, I really don't consider them indicative of hockey genius -- really, these types of decisions are almost no-brainers. When an all-star opportunity falls into your lap, there shouldn't be a lot of inner deliberation. Instead:

2. Still, Burke's a solid roster planner. Burke's real genius move may turn out to be the ticking time bomb roster he's constructed in Anaheim. He's built a payroll that expires with a bang next summer, sort of a clean slate. Six notable players are signed past next year -- Pronger, Giguere, Getzlaf, Kunitz, Ryan, and Carter. Whenever tagging rules allow I expect Corey Perry to get added to that list also.

As of now, everyone else's contract runs out next summer, including GM Burke, Coach Carlyle, and the occasionally-retiring Niedermayer brothers. This roster timebomb is the result of what I think Burke has done really well as a post-lockout GM: in the face of impending rule changes and a brand new salary cap, Burke refused to commit long-term to an uncertain future. He assembled a championship team with some gutsy trades, and he built in an "out clause" after the fourth year, a good point to reassess and reload the roster.

Sure it would be nice to have certain players tied up longer, but really the key is flexibility. Having seen plenty of new-rules enforcement and salary cap management, Burke or even a replacement GM can assess and reassemble a roster with freedom: plenty of spending money and lots of positions to fill. Burke's smartest strategy may have been restraint, and it's the reason I think if he wants off to Toronto or elsewhere, I won't be panicking. The notion of an unknown replacement GM certainly has its scary side, but at least there is plenty of spending room -- no need to wait for Burke's signings to expire. (Note: this is why I keep calling this offseason "boring" for the Ducks. It's not really a valid label, as there certainly are some meaningful storylines, but next summer is when things will be really interesting for the Ducks, especially if Burke seeks Canadian employment.)

I don't want to sell the point of this post wrong -- overall, I'm a huge fan of Burke, not only in the way he runs a competent team but in the snark he brings to dealing with the media as well. He's done a stellar job in complementing his stars and sheltering the emergence of young kids Getzlaf and Perry. Still, I think his reputation has gotten a bit overblown by hockey media. Burke has his downsides also -- I wish there were more Europeans in the Ducks' system, I think he could have gotten something for Bryzgalov, and he has yet to draft anyone of value -- but those are minor gripes. On the whole he is a level-headed hockey mind, which is certainly a needed element in Toronto and an appreciated aspect from his work in Anaheim. He's free to leave next summer if he wishes, but I'd sure like it if he stayed.

Anyway, this post has gotten a bit longer than anticipated, but as long as Burke keeps the 2009-10 roster pretty clean and doesn't make any suspicious trades this year with the Leafs, I'm cool with him GMing wherever he wants next summer, best wishes and no hard feelings. But hey, maybe that's just my California optimism and I'm not taking this seriously enough; what do you think? Do you believe that Burke craves to be the GM the Leafs (and that they'll hold the position open specifically for him)? And other than the presumption that the Leafs vacancy is automatically more coveted than the Anaheim position, how much does the possibility of Burke bolting bother Ducks fans?

Burkie or no, Go Ducks.

(Side note: Today I stopped procrastinating and finished updating my player spreadsheets -- later this week we'll take a glance at some familiar-feeling Niedermayer and Selanne retirement decisions that are due pretty soon. Feel free to guess on those outcomes, too.)