Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—The importance of a good dentist

Detroit Red Wings (7-1-1, 2nd in west) at Anaheim Ducks (5-5-0, t-5th in west)
Ah, it's never felt so good to be back at .500

Well, I don't know if it was a lucky mix of positivity and poetry (Poetrivity!), but somehow the Ducks pulled off a nice 4-game sweep on their road trip, to nicely recover from their 0-4 season start. There's still plenty of things to improve on for the Ducks, but I'm still at the point that I care more that they are getting points than worrying too much about how they're getting them. Suffice to say that it was a fortunate road trip (really? only the third time ever a team has swept eastern Canada?), and it was extremely helpful to score the first two goals in each of the first three games.

But probably the one event on the road trip that probably shouldn't be overlooked was Ryan Getzlaf's trip to the dentist. Getzlaf had a virus removed from his gum that kept him out of the game in Toronto, but apparently the virus was adversely affecting more than just his inner mouth -- his entire forward line showed improvement once the infection was removed from the lineup. Here's the top line's very-much-improved stats from the road trip:

C. Perry 4 gp, 2g-5a-7p, +4
R. Getzlaf 3 gp, 3g-2a-5p, +4
C. Kunitz 4 gp, 1g-4a-5p, +2
Recall that in the six games prior to that dental visit, that trio combined for 18 gp, 0g-2a-2p, -14.


I can only assume this resembles Getzlaf before and after his dental visit.
It certainly mirrors the top line's performance since that pivotal event.
I don't want to seem overly presumptuous, but perhaps it's time to schedule Brendan Morrison for a teeth-cleaning. Ten games in, and he's got 0g-1a-1p and a -5. Just sayin'.

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Meanwhile, the Red Wings come into town with a 5-game win streak of their own, thanks to Denis Gauthier's questionable decision-making. Like Anaheim, Detroit's win streak seems a bit illusory as well -- three of the five wins have come in OT/SO, and over the streak they've allowed 3.6 goals per game, which is definitely uncharacteristic.

Here's one stat that definitely differentiates Detroit's win streak from Anaheim's, though. In 5 wins, the Red Wings have outshot their opponents by a margin of 41.2 to 29.8. In 4 wins, the Ducks have been outshot by their opponents by a margin of 25.5 to 37.8. Detroit's also 5-0 on the road this season, and the Ducks haven't won a home game that I haven't attended, so hopefully this battle of the last two cup champions provokes some inspired play from the web-footed ones.

Prediction: Nevertheless, the Ducks pull it out. Ducks 4, Wings 2. Goals by the two-time Wing killers -- the fabulous Niedermayers, Pahlsson, and Pronger. For your Red Wings angles, make sure to hit up Abel to Yzerman, Winging It In Motown, On the Wings, and HockeytownTodd.

[9:30 am edit -- I've just been informed that the Chief over at A2Y will be running a live blog over at his site tonight, and I've agreed to join in the comments there to take my lumps like a good Ducks fan should. Feel free to join in, defend Pronger's elbows, and enjoy a hearty laugh at the persistence of 18-month-old injury excuses.]

Go Ducks.

Just thinking out loud here

Absolutely nothing is working for the top lines of the Ducks, but the bottom two lines are thriving. Rob N., Pahlsson, Moen, Marchant, Carter, May, Parros, and Sutherby -- those eight players have combined for 6 goals and 8 assists, and Carter, May, and Parros are each +3 -0 at even strength.

Getzlaf, Kunitz, Perry, Selanne, and Morrison? That fivesome has but 1 goal and 1 assist between them (not even on the same goal), a collective +3 -17 at even strength, plus they're taking a whackload of stupid frustration penalties.

So why not mix it up? I know that the Ducks looked pretty good for most of tonight, but what's the downside in trying this?

Kunitz - Getzlaf - Selanne
Marchant - Morrison - Perry
Moen - Pahlsson - Niedermayer
May - Carter - Sutherby - Parros
There's obviously a lot of room for shuffling, but should Carlyle just stop forcing Getzlaf-Perry and Morrison-Selanne? Can changing primary partners help ignite what's been so far an awfully stale offense? I don't necessarily like it as a long-term solution, mind you, but maybe it's worth a try.

Positivity! Go Ducks.

BoC Gameday—What Scares Me About Your Team

Anaheim Ducks (t-1st in west) at San Jose Sharks (t-1st in west)
Winner of tonight’s game is on top of the west!

Ah, the beauty of a new NHL season afoot, and what better way to kick it off than with a good ol’ Battle of California (competitive version)? Yeah, I know there were some "counting" games already played in Europe, and Ducks/Sharks is the only game on tonight's schedule without some version of national coverage, but I can’t care. Because tonight is Ducks-Sharks, one of my favorite matchups since the lockout. It's a measuring-stick game, a pride game, and an awesome way to start the NHL season (assuming the Sharks have paid their electricity bill this year).

To open this set of Gamedays and this NHL season, Mike Chen and I devised a little cross-state exercise. You know Mike, of course, from Battle of California, though I heard he has some side gig too. Anyways, instead of rehashing our own previews again, we instead decided to write about the opposition this time with three answers to: "What Scares Me About Your Team", a nice outsider's perspective to start the new year.

What Scares Sleek about this year's Sharks:

1. Joe Thornton plus offensive defensemen means trouble

The last three seasons, the highest scoring San Jose blueliners have been Craig Rivet 07/08 (74 gp, 35 pts), Matt Carle 06/07 (77 gp, 42 pts), and Tom Preissing 05/06 (74 gp, 43 pts). In each case, it's a career scoring high—none of them have demonstrated tremendous scoring ability away from Jumbo Joe. The lack of a true offensive talent on the blueline has been the Sharks' Achilles Heel, their missing ingredient in a sense. Finally at the end of last year the Sharks inserted an actual offensive defenseman – Brian Campbell – and the results were stellar. In 20 gp, Campbell recorded 19 points, and while that 78-point-season pace might not have been sustainable for a full year, it still showed the potential of using a creative talent behind San Jose’s glut of forwards.

Bring in Dan Boyle, and to a lesser extent Rob Blake. Boyle is a guy who’s already registered a 63-point season and two 53-point years, so he’s shown the ability to play well with top talent in Tampa. I haven’t watched a ton of Lightning games, so I can’t say for sure, but if Jumbo Joe is able to bring out a career year out of the Sharks’ new blueline threat, San Jose threatens to be a Pacific monster this year.

2. Red Wing motivational tactics

I’ve been reading some of new coach Todd McLellan’s motivational quotes over at the Seagate Broadcaster’s Blog, and his overall message has me worried. Not so much the “I don’t just want a hockey player, I want an ingredient” bit; other than some cannibalistic overtones that message is pretty routine. But how about this McLellan gem? “At this point in the season, the words ‘Stanley Cup’ aren’t part of the vocabulary.” First off, McLellan, I don’t think that’s very fair to Marcel Goc, who doesn’t have a very wide vocabulary to begin with. You’re going to take away two of his possibly twenty cohesive words?

But all kidding aside, I think McLellan seems to be doing the right things as a new coach for what’s been a tremendously successful team. He’s making the players better understand their roles for the team’s success, and is making sure that the short-term details that contribute to winning don’t get lost in the long-term goal. Of course, media quotes and on-ice performance can often be two different things, so I’ll reserve judgment, but I have to imagine the Sharks will be well-prepared for opening night.

3. Jonathan Goddamn Cheechoo

Yes, I know that Cheechoo is coming off his worst offensive campaign since his rookie year, and his preseason performance still has some Sharks fans worried, but that doesn’t make things less scary on my end. Cheechoo is the very definition of streaky – even in his good seasons he got hot and cold very fast. I wrote a post in the latter part of the 06-07 season that pointed that out: “4 goals in 2 games against the Ducks, which was preceded by a seven game goalless streak, that followed a 5 goals in 7 game stretch, that followed a 1 goal in 9 games slump, and well, you get the picture.” Also revealed in that post was the trend that Cheechoo scored at a much higher rate against the Ducks and Kings than against any other opponent.

The Sharks figure to have a very good team this season even if Cheechoo has another off year. However, if he gets anywhere near his pre-injury form, the Sharks will be awfully tough to keep up with in the standings this season. I guess my main hope is that Coach McLellan finds Cheechoo to be a very tasty ingredient and eats him, but that probably violates the CBA.

And now, heeeere's Mike Chen!

What Scares Mike Chen about this year's Ducks

1. The Complete Mighty Ducks

Picture this. You sit down and you really want to have a kick-ass marathon of the Mighty Ducks movie trilogy. You've got your shiny Mighty Ducks DVD and your old VHS copy of D3: The Mighty Ducks, but you don't own the second movie and you can't afford the gas to drive to Best Buy and pick it up. But halfway through your viewing of D3, a buddy calls and says that D2 is on the Disney channel RIGHT NOW so turn the channel immediately. That convoluted movie-viewing experience is kinda like what happened to the Ducks last season without Scott "My Captain C, Damn It!" Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to start the season.

You take those guys out of the mix, add in some bad broadcast-on-cable-TV replacements like Todd Bertuzzi and Doug Weight and it's just a chemistry experiment gone awry. And while Scotty N played well upon his return, you could sense that something wasn't quite right with last season's Ducks, even from all the way up in the Bay Area. So now Brian Burke's guys have no off-ice distractions, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are a year older, and the Norris Twins get a full 82 games together. Yeah, that's not good.

2. Brendan Morrison

Oh, stop laughing. I'm not talking Brendan Morrison by himself, I'm looking at what Brendan Morrison could possibly do for the rest of the team. Morrison's a playmaker. Teemu Selanne's a goal scorer. Goal scorers need playmakers to make them even better (see: Cheechoo, Jonathan). If Morrison clicks with Selanne in an Andy McDonald-minus-the-freakish-neck-muscles kind of way, that gives the Ducks two pretty strong forward lines. We know Perry and Getzlaf will get their points but what about secondary scoring?

Last season, I don't think I was the only person who laughed when Burke signed on Todd Bertuzzi's diminished scoring abilities. We know that Selanne still has it but if Teemu's got a partner that can actually dish him the puck, he becomes that much more of a threat. Teams with one scoring line don't usually accomplish much (hello Vancouver), but when you start spreading that around, that's when the proverbial shiznit hits the fan.

3. Pronger/Niedermayer

You could say that this point is an extension of the first one, but that one was really more about off-ice distractions and general roster discombobulation. This is about having two Norris-quality defensemen who can handle 30+ minutes a night, play special teams, send out a great outlet pass, and shut down the opposition's top scorer. With all due respect to the Detroit blueline, there's simply no team that can match what Anaheim can do -- that is, have one Norris-candidate on the ice at all times.

Put it this way -- the old adage of line matching doesn't work if you have either a healthy Pronger or Niedermayer on the ice. You can't try to avoid the shutdown defenseman because they're both capable of it. Hell, stick me out there with my limited beer-league skills and I'd still probably be a +30 for the year (Burkie, I'm a free agent and I'll sign for the league minimum). This combination scared me when Pronger first came to Anaheim and it still scares me today. And it's just not fair.

So that's our takes, looking trepidly at some of the new aspects of the opposing team. How about you, readers? What in particular this year scares you about facing either of these teams? Feel free to leave your own answers (even if you aren't a Ducks or Sharks fan) in the comments.

Prediction: Ducks 3, Sharks 1. Goals by Perry, Pahlsson, and Morrison. Just like in the Ducks opener of the 06-07 season, though, Rob Blake actually scores Corey Perry's goal. Adds Mike Chen, "By the way, Sleek's watching the game on Tivo so everyone text him 'Pronger broke his leg' intermittently."

Update 10:01: Mike sneaks in a prediction too: Sharks 4, Ducks 2. Goals by Marleau, Boyle, Roenick, and an empty netter by Grier. And soft crying in the rafters from Jeff Friesen.

p.s. I posted a PuckToon today that mixes metaphors about strange cap-motivated roster moves made throughout the Pacific Division. Enjoy!

[9:30 am edit -- even more Sleek guest appearances on the ol' internet! In addition to posting on James O'Brien's new blog, I was also a guest on the LCS Hockey Radio Show last night. I haven't even heard the whole thing, but feel free to give it a listen as we push through some technical difficulties, I hurriedly mis-describe Patrick O'Sullivan as "a poor man's Brian Rolston", and I pull a correct Caspian Sea trivia answer out of my ass.]

Go Ducks.

B-Mo! Burke upgrades through West Coast Exchange

UFA forward Brendan Morrison reportedly is signing a one-year contract tomorrow with the Ducks. I haven’t heard the salary figure [UPDATE: TSN says 1 year, $2.75 M; thanks Mike in OC!], so I won’t get detailed into budget repercussions just yet. Still, here's three marginally useful thoughts I had:

B-Mo won the Hobey Baker award in 1997. Actually, Morrison becomes the fifth Hobey Baker winner in Anaheim’s history, joining former Ducks Tony “the Circus*” Hrkac (1987), Kip Miller (1990), Paul Kariya (1993), and Jason “K-Rog**” Krog (1999). Looking at the list of historical winners, I have to think that the Ducks hold the odd record of having the most games played (923) and points (784) from Hobey Baker winners. Other notable winners include Chris Drury (1998), Ryan Miller (2001), and Matt Carle (2006).

B-Mo was once part of a trade for Alexander Mogilny. It’s not that significant, really, but for some reason I sort of enjoy knowing about young brushes with greatness, like when Pahlsson was traded for Ray Bourque. What’s actually meaningful, though, is that Morrison debuted as a New Jersey Devil. He knows his defensive responsibility, that’s for sure, and may even have a reunion of sorts with Scott Niedermayer.

B-Mo, of course, centered the West Coast Express. The Yankee Canuck wrote a timely tribute post to the members of that high-flying line (including a link to Morrison scoring a triple-OT goal), and I couldn’t resist quoting this ironic part: “We all share in common the wonder of what could have been if (a) Dan Cloutier and (b) Marc Crawford had been just a shade better at their jobs...” The Humming Giraffe is going to miss B-Mo as well. Between all-star scoring wingers Naslund and Bertuzzi, Morrison was a more-than-serviceable centerman who not only chipped in points, but largely served as a defensive conscience for the line as well. To put it in 90s Ducks terms, B-Mo served as the “Rucchin” of that line.

Overall, I’m pretty excited; Morrison represents a much-coveted top-six forward. I can’t call it a “great” signing until I know what the salary is, but I think Morrison fits fabulously roster-wise. Getzlaf-Morrison-Pahlsson-Marchant/Carter is a pretty solid set of centers (especially if Getzy decides to win some faceoffs). This team still looks to be short a Selanne up front, but generally I like where this Burkie swan song team is headed.

Of course, it should be recognized that so far this offseason, Ducks fans have only seen the pleasant side of summer business. Until now, it’s been all roses. Good players have been brought in or re-signed (Niedermayer, Perry, Morrison, Hiller), and less-good players have been let go (Weight, Bertuzzi). It’s about time to brace for the harder choices—getting rid of good players. If it means a final year of Pronger and Niedermayer, though, I’m fully aboard.

Go Ducks.


* Also acceptable is “the Jerk-Ass”, but you have to say it kind of funny and make it rhyme with “circus”.
** Patterned after the “K-Rod” nickname given to Angels phenom Francisco Rodriguez.

Ducks to Sign Brendan Morrison and other musings of a Ducks fan

According to the O.C. Register, the Anaheim Ducks will announce tomorrow the signing of Brendan Morrison. He supposedly wants to reunite with Brian Burke (awwww). He is also expected to center the second line. He better be coming here cheap, because I don't see this being a good financial decision. Plus hopefully after knee surgery he doesn't suck.

Maybe if we wait a little longer we could ink Mats Sundin too, he seems to not know what the hell he wants to do. Oh well, I have officially given up on free agency for the Ducks. We're too close to the cap to have any fun anyway.

Please Teemu, Come Back!!!!!!!

In other Ducks news: Bettman (no it's not a mis-print, I mean the homo, not the super hero Batman) decided to play referee to the Brian Burke vs. Kevin Lowe fight. Citing that the men should "play nice" to which reportedly Lowe tossed a hissy fit saying California has no hockey market and was sent to the corner. Burke is rumored to have teased Lowe asking "Who's the moron now?"

I doubt its over, but damn its fun having my GM is better than your GM fights.

(I mean no offense with the gay reference above. If anyone would like me to remove it, I will.)

Oh yea, Hey Earl, I stole your Burkie and Lowe image for my article about it on Bleacher Report, its hilarious. Hope its ok, if its not, I'll change it.