A Letter From Kent Huskins

Sup homies!

Huskins here. What's that? Don't know me? Oh don't worry, baby, you will. You see, Kent Huskins is a star. That's right, write that down and put it away. It'll be worth something in a few years. I'm the straw that stirs the drink for the Anaheim Super Ducks (that's a little name change I'm workin' on) and the preeminent mover and shaker on the blue line. I've been tied down my whole career, from the mean streets of Potsdam to the alleyways of Costa Mesa, but the reins are now off. Sean O'Donnell's gone and I feel for him, but it was inev... inevita... bound to happen. I needed to be free and he was in my way. Kent Huskins is like a locomotive: you're in the way and you're going to get traded to the Los Angeles Kings. With Sean gone, the road is wide open for Huskins Time.

#1 and counting...

What's that? Never heard of Huskins Time? Well, let's put it this way. When I get the puck behind the net, sometimes I hear a little voice whisper, "Go baby. Take it to the house. You got this, you're Kent Huskins, superstar." I can try to keep it under control, but once or twice a game I just have to be me. It's an itch I just have to scratch. I call it Huskins Time. I applied for a trademark, it should be coming any day now. You can hear me yell it when I streak down the ice if you're sitting close enough. It's not just hockey, I hear the voice everywhere I go. Some people don't like it, but I can't help it. Don't want me cutting in front of you in line at the market? "Sorry Ma'am, Huskins Time." Don't want me to go 120 on the 55? "But officer, it's Huskins Time." Don't want me to pop off so quickly, baby? "Sorry sweetheart... HUSKINS TIME!"

Check out my bling!

Some of the other defensemen can get frustrated when I dominate the other team. I think they're jealous. Chris Pronger is probably the most jealous of my subordinates but we're still friends. We have this running joke where I give him a wink after Huskins Time and he yells, "Stop going out of position, faggot!" Some people call us Thunder & Lightning, mostly when I pay them to. Scott Niedermayer, on the other hand, loves me. I volunteered a few moves to him the other day at practice and he thanked me by saying, "Oh really? I had no idea." He's a good guy. The only person that ever had a problem with my skillz was Ilya Bryzgalov, who used to always scream, "Fuck you doing, nutsnumb???" whenever I flew up the ice. He just couldn't see the glory of me. Naturally, he had to be dismissed because Kent Huskins can't possibly do what he does with those negative vibes. I'm sensitive.

Forget Ocho Cinco, what about... wait, what's #40 in Spanish?

So all you fantasy players, hockey enthusiasts, and ladies (*wink), take note: Kent Huskins has arrived. If you see a blur on your screen and a red light come on soon after, congratulations: you've just experienced Huskins Time (TM). Kent Huskins is 215 pounds of star and I'm about to burst into your homes. You're welcome.

Stay Smoove,
Kent Huskins

Quick Impressions from the Preseason Opener

I don't have time to do a full write-up on yesterday's preseason opener between the Sharks and Ducks, but I did want to report on a few interesting items. It was a pretty fun preseason game, actually, between all the fights and goals. I didn't end up taking any pictures (that's PJ's specialty, not mine), but that doesn't mean that I wasn't there!

Look, there's half of me, grinning stupidly about two seconds before Evans got floored.


More photo evidence of the green shirt sent by reader Scott.
Here's the main three takeaways I wanted to point out about yesterday's game, though.

a) What the hell, Anaheim? There was a bigger crowd in attendance last night than I've ever seen for a Ducks preseason game, to the point where I was getting pissed off about it. I mean, I understand that full houses are good for the team's revenue, but preseason has always represented a chance for me to come to a half-empty arena and enjoy easy parking, short lines, and crummy preseason hockey. Yesterday all I got was crummy preseason hockey. I don't really know why so many people showed up (and it certainly wasn't a full house), but it definitely caught me off-guard.

b) Question for Sharks fans: Who is this midget named Vesce? During last night's game, I was trying to learn about Ducks prospects, and pointed out to my friend how Ryan Dingle reminded me a lot of Andy McDonald -- small, quick, and clever with the puck. My friend replies, "That's the smallest skater I've ever seen!" I say, "Aw, he's not that little," but then realize that my friend isn't talking about Dingle at all. No, in fact there's an even littler dude skating around for the Sharks, Ryan Vesce. He didn't end up getting very much ice time, but we spent a good deal of time devising offensive plays for the Sharks that went something like this: "OK, Alex Semenov skates into the offensive zone and calls for a pass. Then out of nowhere Ryan Vesce jumps out of Semenov's breast pocket, steals the puck, and scores!"

c) The fight highlight of the night: Clowe gets "Bravehearted". The first two periods were littered with fights, mostly from players trying to earn jobs in the future, but even legitimate NHLers decided to get into it. For some reason, Kent Huskins, a guy I've always considered soft and laid back, decided he was sick of my opinion and decided to trade blows with Ryane Clowe. I was kind of shocked, because Clowe does have NHL fight experience, and pretty much I hoped that Huskins wouldn't get too badly hurt.

However, not only did Huskins hold his own in the fairly lengthy fight, but he even managed to cut Clowe pretty good above his left eye (you can see some if it in the picture to the right), and by the time the fight was over, half of Clowe's face was covered in blood. Now in full honesty the fight was pretty much even, but based on the blood spilled, the Anaheim crowd gave Huskins the biggest ovation of the night.

Clowe did return to the game after getting cleaned up, but the emotional damage was done. We even ended up coining a term for it, too. Clowe, you got "Bravehearted", dude. By Huskins, no less. Who would have thought?

Go Ducks.

[Update] Earl Sleek made me famous - Battle of California. I think Northern California wins the battle of the blurry fight background cameo appearances. Hand on chin = smart.

More Number-Crunching with Scott

I'm in a bit of a rush today, but I did want to throw down a few more numbers around Scott Niedermayer's return to the lineup last year, even though he apparently doesn't need to give Brian Burke a retirement decision until July 1st now. I also made Burke's deadline the topic of this week's PuckToon, although I certainly could have drawn Scott a bit better -- in my cartoon he is being played by Adrien Brody.

Here's a table that shows the main five non-Niedermayer defensemen, and their even-strength performance before and after Scott's December debut:

Even-Strength Plus-Minus Before & After Scott Niedermayer

(click on image to enlarge)You'll note that in terms of even-strength play, inserting Scott at the top of the Anaheim blueline had a huge impact on the outscoring success of three players in particular -- Frenchie Beauchemin, Chris Pronger, and Sean O'Donnell.

For Pronger and O'Donnell, I think the improvement mostly stems from the sharing of tough minutes, no longer being the only shutdown option on the blueline. Really Scott's return enabled the team structure to go back to what worked so well for them in their 2007 cup run: a Norris defenseman covering most of the critical minutes, while a third pairing cleaned up on easy minutes.

It's a bit odd that Schneider and Huskins saw their outscoring productivity drop post-Niedermayer, but it wasn't a huge difference, and with Huskins in particular it could be attributed to additional even-strength minutes, freeing the superstar d-men to also manage the special teams minutes. While their numbers are very solid, it's important to remember that this system used to work with Huskins and Dipenta, who is roughly $5M cheaper than Schneidermayer.

I did want to focus a bit on Francois Beauchemin's play, however, who has spent nearly his entire career letting Scott cover his ass. You can see that Frenchie in particular struggled without Scott (and was redeemed upon Scott's return), and I think a lot of that stems from the bad habits that developed under Scott's tutelage. I've drawn a little schematic to the right to demonstrate this.

Normally, when a puck gets dumped behind two defensemen, it's likely a 50-50 split which defenseman will go retrieve the puck, depending on what side of the net the puck is directed. For Scott and Frenchie, though, they've developed something like a 80-20 split, where Beauchemin gets only the very close dump-ins and expects his fleet-footed partner to gather the rest. I remember watching a Scott-less Beauchemin very carefully in the opening 34 games, and to my eyes I could spot this happening to poor spoiled Frenchie -- he was so used to not retrieving pucks that he'd often leave his defensive partner with silly responsibilities that only a guy like Niedermayer could make look effortless.

I'm not blaming Beauchemin for anything, really -- if my back was always covered I'm sure I'd develop bad habits also, but that's another reason I really want Scott to return; he not only helps other defensive pairs manage their minutes better but also carries bad-habit Beauchemin into respectable results. Someday Frenchie is going to have to re-learn his puck responsibilities when paired with an average partner, but I don't want it to happen this year.

So that's a bit more on Scott's roster impact, at least at even strength. I'll close with a lame analogy, mainly designed to incorporate a crazy e-mail image that my dad forwarded to me. Scott's so valuable on the ice that putting him at the top of a lineup makes an ugly dude like Albert Einstein look like a beautiful blonde like Marilyn Monroe:

Step away from your screen to see some crazy-ass magic eye effect.
Insanity. Go Ducks.

Retirement Threat #1: how do you replace Scott Niedermayer?

(Author’s Note: I HAVE NO NEWS IN THIS POST. I figured I’d best say that up front.)

So with Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne both threatening to retire 'on top of the world', I thought I’d spend today looking at Scott’s on-ice contribution, and deal with Teemu's in a separate post.

Over the course of the regular season and playoffs, the captain played over 2,800 minutes, nearly 400 more than the next highest Duck skater. He led Anaheim defensemen in even-strength minutes, power play minutes, and shorthanded minutes, and total scoring, as well. He was also Anaheim’s top-paid player ($6.75 M/year on a deal that has two more years on it), a Norris finalist, and the Conn Smythe winner to boot.

To help measure his on-ice contribution, though, here are the 5 defensemen signed for next year, and their combined regular-season and playoff totals from last year:

Even-Strength:

Player	GP	ES min	ES +/hr	ES –/hr	ES +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	1,803	+2.66	-2.23	+0.43
Beauchemin	91	1,749	+2.44	-2.13	+0.31
O’Donnell	100	1,621	+2.48	-1.96	+0.52
Pronger	85	1,520	+3.00	-1.54	+1.46
Huskins	54	640	+1.97	-1.88	+0.09

What’s staggering here is really the difference in productivity of Chris Pronger from pretty much everyone else (even his regular defense partner Sean O’Donnell). The best goals-for, the best goals-against, and the best differential, all while playing comparable minutes to Niedermayer. I don’t want to knock the captain’s productivity, but Scott is clearly outshined on these metrics.

Power Play:

Player	GP	PP min	PP +/hr	PP –/hr	PP +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	582	+7.94	-0.72	+7.22
Pronger	85	509	+8.25	-0.24	+8.01
Beauchemin	91	286	+6.09	-0.63	+5.46

On the power play, only three defensemen played any significant minutes, and certainly Niedermayer's presence was a huge part. One thing about Niedermayer: he's got a very below-average shot from the blueline, but made himself really useful as a high screen / rover. Again, though, Pronger is the star in terms of net production.

Penalty Kill:

Player	GP	SH min	SH +/hr	SH –/hr	SH +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	415	+0.29	-6.65	-6.36
Beauchemin	91	385	+0.47	-6.08	-5.61
O’Donnell	100	367	+0.49	-3.93	-3.44
Pronger	85	333	+0.54	-5.23	-4.69

Note that these numbers are inclusive of 4-on-5 and 3-on-5 situations, which partially explains why Niedermayer's production looks bad here. Even so, though, his numbers pale again against Pronger's, who also was a fixture on 2-man disadvantages.

Bottom line: Even though Scott is outshined in the production metrics by Pronger, he still plays a huge role minutes-wise and leadership-wise, and his salary is quite favorable compared to other top-earning defensemen. Should Scott announce his retirement, the Ducks definitely need to figure out who their captain will be, and also find a way to replace his minutes for a pretty similar cost. Unfortunately, I really doubt this can be accomplished with one $6 - $7 M defenseman in today's high-priced market (it doesn’t buy you what it used to); this really is the main reason why I’d really prefer Scott to play out his existing contract.

A key question that still needs to be answered will be the production of defenseman Francois Beauchemin, who has played pretty much his entire 2-year NHL career with Scotty as his partner. Certainly the early play of Frenchie has been promising, but it is somewhat easy to look good when you’ve got the smoothest skater in the league leading your rushes and still covering your back.

If Niedermayer does choose to retire, though, I would guess the best way to go about replacing him would be pretty much to build a traditional blueline around the other Norris finalist, Pronger. Rather than have two defensive pairs play nearly all the minutes, the resulting defense would probably have to spread minutes to the third pairing a lot more evenly, so probably Niedermayer would be best replaced by two capable $3M defensemen, preferably not UFAs signed on July 1st, though—those signings usually signify an overcommitment.

Anyway, Scott’s decision is probably the one key thing I’m keeping my eye on this offseason—I don’t think the Ducks are in horrible trouble either way, but definitely there will have to be a huge strategy adjustment if he leaves. Based on the minutes he plays, I would say he’s a tougher hurdle to replace than Selanne, but we’ll be taking a look at that in a later post.

Ducks Draft Day: Lots of little news

Well, lots of random items to cover this Saturday, so let's get to it:

Ducks draft C Logan MacMillan with the 19th overall pick (link).
Burke traded the 16th pick to Minnesota for the 19th and 42nd. I'm as always unsure what to think about the draft: sure it's important but it's tough to measure draft day success. Good luck, kid.

Ducks re-sign D Sean O'Donnell and D Kent Huskins for two years each (link).
This is really good news, as now a majority of the blueline will be back. Both were soon-to-be cup-winning UFAs, and came back for a cheaper combined price, which is good to hear. O'Donnell, who made $1.52 M last year, took a discount and will make $1.25 M per year. Huskins, who made $450k last year, will make $600k this year and $650 the next.

Of course, this would turn out to be FANTASTIC news if Scott decided to play another year or two, because he allows the other blueliners to play less difficult minutes. I'm hoping that the re-signings of these two and Giguere might prompt him to stay.

Ducks trade C Tim Brent to Pittsburgh for C Stephen Dixon (link).
Tim Brent played 15 games for the Ducks this year, mostly in place of an injured Todd Marchant, and was on the ice for 1 goal-for and 6 goals-against.

(Added 3:30) Ducks trade F Ryan Shannon to Vancouver for W Jason King and a conditional pick (link).
Ryan Shannon played 64 games for the Ducks this year, also mostly in a 4th line setting, and was on the ice for 19 goals-for and 21 goals-against. King has played the last three years in Sweden, and signed a contract with the Iserlohn Roosters of the German League last week, so I'm unsure whether to expect him to be available this year.

And while talking about trades in general, I do expect Brian Burke to move G Ilya Bryzgalov, but I'm not sure if Duck fans should get super-excited about the return. After watching both Toskala and Vokoun get moved for draft picks and salary relief, I'm not that sure about the market for goalies (although Breezy has less salary issues). We will see what Burke manages to do.

Earl answers his mail.
And finally, just for kicks, I'll take a stab at one of the anonymous comments: what would earl do if the ducks sign kariya?

The graphic to the right was one I made back in 2003 when both Kariya and Selanne turned their backs on Anaheim and signed for severe discounts to try to win a Cup in Colorado. It remains the one reason why I can't fully apologize to Edmonton fans for stealing Pronger--the same thing had happened to us three years before.

That said, unlike most Duck fans, I have never booed Kariya. Last summer, he was #2 on my list of the 10 best players to wear the Disney duck logo, and I wouldn't really have a problem if he returned (although I get the sense that Nashville, after ditching Vokoun, Timonen, and Hartnell, are preparing to re-sign Kariya).

But I got one stipulation: Kariya, want to ditch your team and sign with a contender? Fine, I won't have a problem, provided you take a salary of $1.2 M, the same price you took in Denver. Sorry, dude. Karmic Justice.