Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Letters from Switzerland, Part I

(Author's note: we at BoC sometimes like to pretend we get letters from Switzerland and creatively write some shaky English to make a semi-comedic point. This is not one of those times; I'm totally serial.)

I'm often amazed how big this internet thing really is. Late last night I had a note dropped in my inbox from a Ducks fan from Switzerland:

Hi Earl

Just had a very good laugh when I was reading your Ducks Special on the pens blog...that nickname story is funny :D

Well...I'm starting my studies for a Master degree next year...in english. And because I still don't feel that comfortable with the english language, I need to practice it a bit...so I thought some writing would do me good.

Would you publish a short article if I wrote something? Can't really guarantee you a high level of grammar or a wide vocabulary...so you would definitely have to correct my text! (Just that you know that it's not an easy job for you as well) :)

My idea: "Your NHL days are over? Come over to snowy Switzerland" and write how some former Ducks (Sean Hill, Caron, Marha, Chouinard and Mowers are currently here) are doing...hope to include a few pictures, to make if funnier (or is it more funny?).

Let me know...I'm not in a hurry :D

Markus

Needless to say, this was too big an opportunity to pass up. I'm always ready to post reader submissions, especially ones from outsider perspectives. So I wrote back a lengthy version of "Sure, go nuts" before going to bed, and this morning I got this. Per Markus' instructions, I've done a little bit of proofreading, but probably not as much as I should have; there's a ton of charm in idioms-gone-wrong. Enjoy!

Well...hi all :) This is my first submission (it could very well be my last) for BoC. I’m starting a master course in english next year, and as a native german speaker, I thought I could mix the inevitable (improve my english skills) with pleasure (the Ducks). Hope you enjoy the read...

Enjoy a few seasons in the country of chocolate, watches, and the alpsPart 1: Josef Marha
And no, it’s not Sweden, folks!

7 goals in 12 NHL games – Ducks fans thought they might have found their new 2nd line center when Josef Marha scored 7 goals along with 4 assists in the last 12 games of the 97-98 season. But apparently, Marha spent more time sipping excellent czech beer than working out, as the start of the next season did not work out as planned. After just 10 games (with one lone assist) with the Ducks and some more games in the AHL, Marha was traded to the Blackhawks.

But it took another 2 years until Josef decided that 40 games a season, the alps, short road trips and a salary close to the NHL minimum were better than what he had overseas and signed a contract with the HC Davos in Switzerland (which is the former Club of Jonas Hiller).


He immediately regretted his decision after seeing the jersey.
The Swiss League, unlike the NHL, allows a maximum of 4 foreign players per game. As a result, foreign players are often pure Scorers (Todd Elik, Simon Gamache, Alexandre Daigle) or offensive defenders (Petteri Nummelin). The signing of Marha, not really known for his goalscoring, would turn out as a bonanza for Davos all the same. [Sleek note: there's no way I'm changing that sentence!]

Marha quickly turned into the favorite player of his new coach, Arno del Curto: "He never complains, puts the team above himself and adapts quickly to a new situation due to his intelligence on and off the ice. He does the little things which are so important for the team but are not recognized outside the rink. My respect for him is huge."

And Marha did not only give 100% on the ice. Back in 2003, the Davos Hockey Club was in financial troubles, and a forced relegation lurked. When the management asked the players to take a paycut to keep the club in the league, Marha was one of the first players to accept a lower salary.

But the task is not always easy for the defensive center. Playing on the first line with two former first round picks Alexandre Daigle and Michel Riesen one night, then with two 18-year old rookies in the 4th line the other night needs a lot of adaption. "The younger players really look up to Josef as a role model in our team. He makes everyone on his line better and executes instructions to a hair." [ :) ]

During the lockout-season 04-05, Marha showed that he could take an offensive role as well when placed beside skilled players. And with Joe Thornton, Rick Nash and Niklas Hagman boosting the offense of the HCD, Marha blossomed offensively with 40 points in 44 regular season games and more importantly, the OT game-winner in game 5 of the finals.


But for his coach, this was only an extra. "As long as he works so well defensively, I would keep him in the team even if he would finish the season with zero points."

And most of the fans of the HC Davos would probably agree...


Josef Marha and Jonas Hiller celebrate sweet Swiss success!
That blue cup/cone/trophy, by the way, looks awesome.
So that's Markus' first entry, and he's right -- I totally remember being high on Marha after that 7-goals-in-12-games end of the season. Who knew he'd ultimately find a heroic role in Switzerland? I didn't really do too much correcting in the piece (a couple spelling errors, and did you know that the Swiss use double-commas to start quotations?). I definitely will post more former-player reports if Markus is willing -- any reader requests?

As I said in the beginning, though, it's quite amazing how wide-reaching this internet is. That there's Ducks fans in Switzerland makes me damn proud.

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As a bonus, Markus has also created this beauty: The Ultimate Duck.


My photoshopping skills suddenly feel weaker.
Per Markus, there are seven players that he's blended together make up this warrior. I don't even know the full listing, but who can you spot?

Anaheim's All-Time Team: Let's Back Up Giguere

Well, time to move on to Part 3 of this All-Time Team exercise for the Ducks. You can still chime in on who gets to play #1 center and the #5 and #6 defensemen, though. I'm accepting input on all of these up to the moment of unveiling Sleek's Anaheim Sometimes-Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. Today's theme: Back-Up Goalie.

To start, I should ask a bit of a pseudo-philosophical question: Ideally, when constructing an All-Time Team, what makes for the better choice for back-up goalie -- the second-best starting goalie in franchise history or the best backup goalie in franchise history? The answer to the first angle is easy for the Ducks, but the second option is a little more convoluted.

Obviously my starter's role is going to J.S. Giguere -- I don't expect a lot of debate there, but who shall play doormaster at the player's bench? I've got five candidates for consideration, as always in chronological order:

Guy Hebert (1993-94 to 2000-01)
441 gp, 173-202-52, 2.75 GAA, .911 sv%, 27 shutouts

If the Ducks didn't have such a rich history of colorful backup goalies, Hebert would be a shoo-in for this #2 slot (and who knows? he might still be). He was really the first goaltending face of the franchise, and for a lot of years was probably the only identifiable player besides Kariya, Selanne, and Rucchin. I was a big fan of Guy Hebert, and probably an even bigger fan of saying "Guy Hebert". If you're pro-North America (ahem, Brian Burke), you should probably vote Hebert. Everyone else on this list is either Russian or Swiss.

Mikhael Shtalenkov (1993-94 to 1997-98)
122 gp, 34-53-11, 3.14 GAA, .897 sv%, 3 shutouts

Shtalenkov's goaltending numbers don't look very impressive, but he was the longest-serving backup in Anaheim's history, and the first backup to step into a playoff series in '97 when Hebert went down with injury. He didn't win a playoff game against the Red Wings that spring, but he battled valiantly against the soon-to-be cup champs, sporting a much more impressive .938 sv% during the postseason. Shtalenkov's main asset in this quest for all-time backup is nostalgia; I remember the guy very fondly, and even though he wouldn't put up great numbers over long stretches, he was capable of short-term brilliance, which I think is a pretty good asset for a backup to have.

Martin Gerber (2002-03 to 2003-04)
54 gp, 17-23-7, 2.13 GAA, .923 sv%, 3 shutouts

"Gerber Bell" (that nickname has a side story for another day) put up some really good numbers in his time in Anaheim, but I included Gerber not for his spectacular numbers, but rather Giguere's. After all, perhaps the criteria for this backup slot should involve the question: "which backup will elicit the best performance from the starting goalie?" And Gerber's got that category cornered. In 2003, he backed Giguere to the cup finals and a Conn Smythe trophy. In 2006, he backed up Cam Ward to the cup finals and a Conn Smythe trophy. Then in 2007 he backed up Ray Emery to the cup finals, though some bearded dude took the Smythe home that year. I know that we're only considering achievements done in an Anaheim uniform, but in 2003 Gerber Bell sat on the bench while Giguere put on the postseason performance of a lifetime. Does that karmic boost give Gerber a spot on the All-Time Team?

Ilya Bryzgalov (2001-02 to 2007-08)
69 gp, 26-23-8, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv%, 2 shutouts

While I'm listing four historical backups in this exercise, I suspect that we'll boil down quickly to Hebert vs. Breezy, because Bryzgalov was the first back-up to really have success when Giguere went lame. Two years in a row J.S. Giguere was a surprise non-starter for the first game of the postseason, and two years in a row Breezy stepped in and was phenomenal. The Ducks have won six playoff series since the lockout, and more or less Breezy has won three of them. He has a better postseason GAA and Sv% than Giguere has, if you can believe it, and even trumped Jiggy's 217-minute postseason shutout streak. And while there's plenty of on-ice accolades for the crazy Russian, I must point out how awesome it is every time Breezy steps in front of a microphone. The guy is nuts, and I love it.

Jonas Hiller (2007-08 to current)
23 gp, 10-7-1, 2.06 GAA, .927 sv%, 0 shutouts

The last and current backup for the Ducks, Jonas Hiller, probably won't get a lot of consideration in this All-Time exercise -- Hiller's the only one on this list to never play a postseason minute in a Ducks uniform. Still, I throw him on the list primarily for one reason -- he did have a fantastic first year backing up Giguere. Behind the Net's Gabe Desjardins authored a post several months ago that broke down shot quality that goaltenders faced, and assigned each goalie an "expected GAA" and an "expected save percentage". In terms of goalies who had the best actual GAA compared to their expected GAA, Hiller ranked fourth in the league, behind Wade Dubielewicz, Henrik Lunqvist, and Giguere. I don't think it's enough to get him on the All-Time team, but I'm definitely excited that Hiller stayed on board with the Ducks; he's got a promising future for sure.

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So that's the five I've listed, though as always you are free to write in Dominic Roussel or Steve Shields or some nonsense like that. Who should get the backup spot on Anaheim's All-Time Team?

I'm not quite sure how debatable this topic will be, so I'll also throw a few side questions on top of it.

1. Who should coach this All-Time Team? Randy Carlyle, Mike Babcock, or (I'll even accept) Ron Wilson?
2. Who should GM this All-Time Team? Brian Burke or Bryan Murray? (Bear in mind this team will feature quite a few Europeans, which might make Burkie uneasy.)

And make sure to stay tuned for the fourth and final installment of the All-Time Team ask-the-audience segment (oh, sometime next week), where we'll build ourselves some fourth-line energy shifts. Can't wait.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Refocusing on the playoffs

Anaheim Ducks (42-26-8, 3rd in west) at Phoenix Coyotes (36-33-6, 11th in west)

Well, like Rudy below, with last night's result against the Sharks, I'm not sure I'm overly concerned with Duck game outcomes from here on out; they don't all need to be wins. It certainly seems that upward mobility in the standings is out of the question, as is dropping out of the playoff picture completely; now it's just about getting enough points to not slide very far. I've always been less concerned with playoff seeding than I probably ought to be; the more crucial thing has always been playing well when the playoffs arrive. Let's put it this way: there's no comfortable seeds in the west. It's a deep conference, and any team is capable of a first-round win. Last year the Ducks won the cup as a 2nd seed, but they've had fantastic runs from the 6 and 7 spots.

So to me, the bigger question isn't: can the Ducks hold off Dallas & friends for the fourth seed and home ice? Rather, it is: can the Ducks start the playoffs with the best roster available?

Last night Giguere pulled up lame with back spasms before the game, and was a surprise non-starter, throwing rookie Jonas Hiller to the bloodthirsty Sharks. This is pretty significant as each of the last two playoff years, Giguere has similarly been a surprise no-show for the postseason opener. Fortunately, the Ducks had a crazy Russian in reserve both those years (one whom they'll be visiting tonight) that was capable of dominating a series. It will probably be Giguere's decision when he returns, but hopefully he can sense that there's not a terrible rush for regular season wins. What's really critical is that he is game-ready for the first game of the postseason, wherever it is.

This principle can somewhat apply to any of Anaheim's major players--Niedermayer, Pahlsson, Selanne, or Getzlaf--there's no need now to be overextending those players in a quest for a higher fourth seed. Pronger, I guess fortunately, is having his jaw rested through league enforcement. Now perhaps Giguere can keep him company a few games before they return saved up for the postseason.

Political aside: I'm never one for presidential politics. I'm cynical and lazy about the voting process, and don't much care for anyone who passes for a legitimate candidate. Still, I am willing to reconsider, if only they'd address my issues:

Independent-voting Ducks fans in swing states, order yours today!
Prediction: Hiller was really encouraging with his surprise-start 41 saves last night; he was shaky in his first minute, but after that surrendered only a 5-on-3 goal in a game where'd you'd think "only one?". Should Giguere pull his usual G1 crap in a few weeks, I'm already feeling better about that potential Bryzgalovless scenario. As for offense, generating zero shots in the 3rd period looks worse on paper than it did on the ice, but I think that'll help spark the Ducks' forwards tonight. Ducks 4, Coyotes 2. Goals by Kunitz, Huskins, Pahlsson, and Bertuzzi.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday: Round-by-Round BryzgaLove

Phoenix Coyotes (9-10-0, 1 point ahead of L.A.) at Anaheim Ducks (10-9-3, 2 points behind S.J.)

When I reflect on Ilya Bryzgalov, of course I think of the affable goofball, one who is unable to get through a single interview without me falling off my couch laughing. But there is of course another side to the guy—the capable netminder who's stepped in each of the last two playoff years to save the Ducks when Giguere was suddenly unavailable. In total, Breezy has a 9-5 playoff record in 926 minutes, with a stellar 1.68 GAA and a .937 sv%.

To put that into perspective, he's got more playoff wins and minutes than Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Rick Dipietro, Tomas Vokoun, Vesa Toskala, Andrew Raycroft, and three-time cup finalist Martin Gerber, just to name some more expensive options out there.

But let's take a look back at how he got there:

2006 Round One: Calgary Flames
2-1, 3 GA on 93 shots in 226 minutes. 0.80 GAA, .968 sv%

Breezy's start in this series was a complete surprise, because Giguere had just beaten Calgary in the last regular season game just four days before. Somehow, though, Giguere had suffered a hip injury and was a shocking scratch for G1, and Bryz lost his debut 2-1 nearly 10 minutes into overtime. Giguere came back for the next four starts, winning two, but clearly was not recovered—he ended the series with a 3.87 GAA and a .845 sv%. So with the team facing elimination, Bryzgalov started the last two games, allowing only one G6 goal and silencing the Red Mile in G7.

2006 Round Two: Colorado Avalanche
4-0, 4 GA on 121 shots in 256 minutes. 0.94 GAA, .967 sv%

Sweeping Colorado was an incredible feat in of itself; in 25 series since moving from Quebec, the Avalanche had won at least two games in every best-of-seven they had played in. To add to that, Bryzgalov kept the high-flying Avs off the scoreboard until G3, setting the post-1930 playoff shutout streak record at 249:15, more than four regulations without a goal-allowed. It was really a huge win for the franchise, as it meant that the Ducks had toppled the typical "big three" in the west (along with Detroit and Dallas in '03), a fairly incredible triple-feat. You can see some more fun facts about that series in my second-ever BoC post.

2006 Round Three: Edmonton Oilers
0-3, 9 GA on 71 shots in 177 minutes. 3.06 GAA, .873 sv%

The stats line on Breezy looks bad here, but really mostly this is a result of a crazy third period in G3. In G1 and G2 Bryzgalov limited the Oilers to 2 goals in each game, but on the other end the Ducks only managed 1 goal in each game. In the 3rd period of G3, with Anaheim trailing 1-0, things exploded on both ends. By the end of regulation the scoreboard would read EDM 5 - ANA 4, and Bryzgalov's postseason was over. Giguere came back and won a G4, but lost when the Ducks were held to one goal again in G5.

Yeah, that series was a tragedy, as the Ducks lost a lot of momentum with the long layoff after sweeping Colorado. However, I do believe I was the first person to predict Anaheim's cup championship when I wrote this drunk blog-title on 3/27/06: "I didn't say Ducks in seven; I said Ducks in '07!!!"

2007 Round One: Minnesota Wild
3-1, 8 GA on 113 shots in 230 minutes. 2.09 GAA, .929 sv%

Another playoff year, another surprising non-start by Giguere. Here Bryzgalov re-established his clutch postseason play, outdueling Backstrom and the Wild through the first three games of the series, all one-goal wins. He got pulled for good in G4 (through no real fault of his own), and only made one relief appearance after that. Not only was Breezy crucial for advancing past the first round, but in the larger scope of things, how important was it that Giguere was able to deal with his family issues and get a fresh late start in the playoffs?

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I guess my main point is that it's wrong to underestimate the contributions of Breezy; I don't know whether the Ducks would have advanced past the first round in either of the last two playoffs without him. He was the victim of a logjam behind $6 M Giguere, and as a result the Phoenix Coyotes got an absolute gift off the waiver wire (see my latest Fanhouse cartoon for a visualization of that).

It's fair to condemn Burke for not getting anything in return for the valuable netminder, but it is true that the trade market for goalies is fairly dead, and I doubt Burke is well-liked enough in the GM community to get any trade favors. So far, Jonas Hiller seems to be an adequate replacement, so I don't think it's hurting the team any, but we'll have to see what happens if Giguere pulls up lame for another playoff round.

I'm actually kind of expecting Hiller to get the start today. I have no inside information or anything, but I read Carlyle as a guy who won't push the "Giguere v. Bryzgalov" storyline just for its own sake. Besides, it's important that Hiller get a start fairly soon to show why Breezy was suddenly expendable, and a home game against Phoenix may be just the ticket. That said, I'm fairly mediocre at predicting Carlyle's moves; don't put much stock in my predictions, either.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Coyotes 1. Hiller makes good on his backup start; goals by Beauchemin, Bertuzzi, Pahlsson, and Sutherby.

Go Ducks.

Ilya Bryzgalov is a Coyote

Here's the TSN link.

I'm going to have more on this next week, but for now there's just a few things worth saying.

I've read a lot of people that talk about how much money the Ducks are saving against the salary cap, freeing up space for the possible returns of Scott Niedermayer and/or Teemu Selanne. The problem I have with this story is that it's got to be recognized that Bryzgalov is playing for dirt-cheap this year. His salary (per NHLSCAP) is $1.36 M, with a cap hit of $1.18 M. With the season about 20% done, let's just say his cap hit for the remainder of the year is something like $900k. Meanwhile, his replacement Jonas Hiller will be paid $850k this year, but for a whopping cap hit of $3.20 M. I'd assume that whatever bonuses are in that latter number are unattainable for the Swiss goalie, but let's call the rest of the year $640k. That's a whopping savings against the cap of $260k, which doesn't buy much at all against Scott's $6.75 M contract or Teemu's TBD contract (last year he made $6 M with bonuses).

Also, it's important to note that Bryzgalov was in no way a liability to the team; he was the emergency-starter for each of the last two playoff years, and has more or less been the main goaltender for four of Anaheim's last seven playoff series (depending on how you want to define "main goaltender"). He definitely was the opening goaltender for four series, and closed out two of them. He has the longest postseason shutout streak in my lifetime (beating out J.S. Giguere's '03 number), largely built against the high-flying Avalanche. It seems absolutely amazing to me that a goaltender with the lowball salary and highball postseason success couldn't be traded in today's league, but I've had low expectations ever since the seemingly poor returns for Tomas Vokoun or Vesa Toskala last summer.

As much as it might pain rival fans to admit it, I think the departure of Bryzgalov has very little to do with Scott and Teemu, and really has more to do with Bryzgalov trying to be a #1 and Hiller being promoted to the big leagues. Apparently I am being rushed out the door right now (go Irish?), but for a really interesting take, go read Lowetide's take. I mean, right now!

The burning question: How funny is evil?

Well, not too much to report from last night’s SJS 1 – ANA 0 preseason game that isn’t being capably reported elsewhere. It certainly wasn’t the most exciting hockey game, but I think it indicates that preseason or not, the Sharks and Ducks take each other quite seriously.

• I have completely flip-flopped on the San Jose road jersey. Seeing it in person, I hate it. The blue and the orange don’t really get along, but maybe more painful was the bottoms of the jerseys. The white part below the horizontal stripe looks like each player is wearing an untucked dress shirt worn below their jersey—it just screams “sloppy”. Then again, the color scheme kind of screams “colorblind”, so pick your poison, I guess.



• It’s tough to say who really looked good out there for the Ducks—I was really impressed with a first period shift for Bertuzzi-Getzlaf-Perry (a line I’ve been hoping to see this coming year), but apparently Coach Carlyle wasn’t. The rest of the game was played with Kunitz-McDonald-Bertuzzi followed by Miller-Getzlaf-Perry, which both seemed to be decent while unproductive combinations.



• On the Sharks, the guy who probably scared me the most all night was Jonathan Cheechoo. Ron Wilson played a much more mixed lineup, and for the most part the SJ prospect-kids looked pretty good, especially on the blueline. Alexei Semenov is a pretty big monster out there, by the way, which became super-evident when he got in a fight with a comparative midget named Travis Moen.

But hey, I’m stalling. My real burning question has to do with our new goaltender Jonas Hiller, who played a serviceable 60 minutes and could replace Ilya Bryzgalov as Anaheim’s backup this year. Last night at the game we had a good debate about assigning Hiller a nickname. The hilariously-offensive suggestion? Hitler. Now I know that there are hundreds of super-valid reasons why we shouldn’t go down that road, but I have to admit, I had a great time last night with the drinky catcalls “Nice save, Hitler! Watch that five-hole, Hitler!”

So I guess I’ll leave it to the readership. If I need a good talking-to about the appropriate use of historical mega-villains, let me have it. If you think the inappropriateness makes it all the more hilarious, I’m all ears. If you’ve got a better suggestion that will get me out of this debate, I’m certainly open for one. And if you think that this nickname should be reserved strictly for Kings assistant Dave Lewis, I’ll take that into consideration.

Hitler—yay or nay? Rip me a new one in the comments.


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LATE NIGHT EDIT: OK, OK, the Swiss have spoken. Hitler's a no-go. I shall instead stick with his more common nickname "The Killer" instead.

Sorry for any drunken insensitivity, Markus. I'll offer this as a peace offering (hopefully you're a Chow Yun-Fat fan):

Ducks Offseason: What the hell do I know?

You know, I’d like to write a really good post this time of year that kind of lays out what the Ducks’ gameplan is for the offseason, but quite frankly, there’s just too many unknown factors at this point to say anything definitively. So I thought I'd just lay out all the questions I don't know the answer to, and then give a few closing thoughts at the end.

Is Scott Niedermayer retiring? TSN reports that the Ducks' captain, fresh off a Norris finalist season (79 gp, 15 - 54 - 69 pts, +6, 34 PP pts) and a Conn Smythe postseason (21 gp, 3 - 8 - 11 pts, +2, 3 PP pts), is contemplating retirement, despite two more years on his contract. Rob Niedermayer has two years left on his contract, as well.

Is Teemu Selanne retiring, and if not, how much will be his base salary? This was more expected, even though Selanne had a tremendous season for the Ducks (82 gp, 48 - 46 - 94 pts, +26, 48 PP pts) and a capable playoffs as well (21 gp, 5 - 10 - 15 pts, +1, 6 PP pts). Selanne led the western conference in goals and the entire league in power play goals. Last year, Selanne signed a one-year deal that was for $3.75 M plus bonuses, and I'm guessing it amounted to something like $6 M, though this is a ballpark figure.

Did Dustin Penner sign a 3-year, $7 M contract? That's been the rumor floating the message boards, but I have not seen any official confirmation. The $2.33 M average would be a significant raise for the kid, as he played for league minimum ($450 k) last year. I'd say the raise is fair—he did pot 29 regular season goals in his "rookie" year.

How NHL-ready is Bobby Ryan? I barely pay any attention to prospects and minor league scoring, but I do know that this kid was the first pick Brian Burke made as a GM in the pick right behind Sidney Crosby. Should the Ducks be saving a spot on the roster for him this year?

Who is Jonas Hiller and why does he have Bryzgalov nervous? Sidearm Delivery provides a translation for Bryzgalov's quote in Sports Express: "I am sure that either I or Giguere will be leaving the club soon, since Anaheim have signed a strong Swiss keeper, Jonas Hiller. Giguere had a nice season, and I think Anaheim can sign him." Maybe another way to ask this question is: How set are the Ducks in net, even without Giguere?

What is the salary cap next year? This doesn't matter so much to the Ducks as spenders, necessarily, but it will impact the number of bidders for J.S. Giguere. While the Ducks do have exclusive negotiating rights with Giguere through June, it does feel kind of a meaningless edge; I doubt Giguere signs anywhere before this cap figure is finally released.

What will the Ducks' budget look like next year? The Ducks last year stayed well below the salary cap, thanks to a bevy of underpaid players. This year Beauchemin, Pahlsson, and Moen will get modest raises while Penner gets a significant one. Next summer Getzlaf and Perry figure to get significant raises, also. All that said, though, the Ducks enjoyed 12 extra home sellouts this spring, 4 of which were series-clinching games. Last summer they also renamed the team and redesigned the uniforms, coercing fans into purchasing all new gear. And by winning the cup, they'll benefit from champion merchandise revenue as well. By my eyes it had to be a monster year for the Ducks revenue-wise; how much of that will make its way into next year's payroll?

So, after all that, what's the right price for Giguere? Giguere went 36-10-8 in the regular season with a 2.26 GAA and a .918 sv%. In the playoffs he went 13-4 with a 1.97 GAA and a .922 sv%. And in terms of top goalie talent in the free agency pool, he's it. Giguere has indicated a preference toward staying in Anaheim, and for sure the fans love him, but what's the most that Brian Burke should be prepared to pay?

Pin the price tag on the goalie
Sleek's thoughts: Even if the Ducks lose Selanne, Niedermayer, and Giguere in the coming weeks, there is a benefit in losing 3 of the 4 highest-paid players on the team: replacement money. Using the $6 M estimate for Selanne, there would be nearly $17 M freed up to help patch the holes, and that's certainly enough money to pay some difference-makers.

At first I was worried that if Selanne and Niedermayer didn't come to a decision by July 1st, the Ducks would be in trouble missing out on first-day free agents. But then I remembered back to July 1st last year, and all the silly deals being handed out on that day, and I reconsidered. Even if there are holes that need to be filled, replacement money needn't be spent frivolously on expensive free agents. Given the choice, I'd rather see Burke fill those holes by trading with cap-tight teams.

Bottom line: there's too many unknowns here for me to do anything but "wait and see", but suffice to say I'm not that worried about the future just yet. Every one of Anaheim's potential "problems" comes with its own multi-million dollar "solution". That said, I really hope Scott in particular decides to stay, as his $6.75 M salary is looking pretty sweet compared with more recent UFA-defenseman signings (Blake, Redden, Jovanovski, Timonen), and I would like to remain spoiled by the Niedermayer-Pronger show for another year at least.

They say that Scott's got nothing left to win in hockey, but I can think of one thing he's never done. He's never won back-to-back Cups; that's gotta have some appeal, right Scott?