Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Bertuzzi, The Karate Kid and Forgiveness

Cobra. Fucking. Kai.

Aside from linking the Hockey Orphan for the Kings, Stars and Sharks this should be the last bit of shameless self-promotion for quite a while. And, if I do say so myself, it's a damn doozy.

In order to break up some of the monotony that is Tuesday, I'm starting up a tradition on Cycle like the Sedins called "Bertuzzdays."

Basically, it is a weekly tribute to the most shameful and sometimes hilarious moments in hockey history. This week, naturally, begins with a study of The Todd Bertuzzi incident.

Then quite unnaturally, it devolves into a troubling comparison between that Vancouver Canucks team and Cobra Kai from "The Karate Kid." Eventually, "The Jesus" makes an appearance and all hell generally breaks loose. It does end with an intriguing question, though: what would Bertuzzi have to do to gain your forgiveness (or at least your respect)?

Hopefully, you'll find this Bertuzzday as entertaining as I find it psychologically damning.

A banner month for fake hockey

It's been a while since I posted on the 'ol BoC, but things are cranking up now. You know when the beauty of the NHL season is about to shine upon us when people start drafting fantasy hockey teams and the annual video games come out.

Tune in soon as I examine: is NHL 09 the best hockey video game ever? (Not certain if I'll get a definitive answer on that but I definitely think it's the most addictive NHL game ever)

Warning: do not play if you plan on being productive with your time

Anyway, I thought I should make note of my intensely BoC leaning fantasy hockey team in the first draft I've done this year.* Here's the Pacific Division guys who made my roster, with super duper in-parenthesis asides for no extra charge:

Ducks:
J.S. Giguere (expect a HUGE year without Breezy stealing a bunch of starts and the team not dealing with as much drama)
Chris Pronger (get those PIMs but don't get suspended Stompy!!!)
Scott Niedermayer (got him way late because of his semi-retirement 2007-08 stats)
Corey Perry (I really wanted Ryan Getzlaf, but I guess Corey flopping Perry'll do)

Sharks:
Evgeni Nabokov (couldn't choose between Jiggy and Nabby so I got 'em both)
Dan Boyle (seriously, my defense is frickin' stacked: Pronger - Niedermayer - Boyle - Wade Redden - Jay contract year Bouwmeester)
Milan Michalek (it would be pretty sweet if he'd finally have that Joe Thornton osmosis/Sergei Samsonov effect this year)

Sadly, no Stars, Kings or 'Yotes (although don't tell anyone, but I might pickup Phillippe Boucher if he looks healthy this year). But 7 of my 24 players are in the BoC. That's a lot of eggs in one BoC basket!

Oh, and the real justification for this post:

Fantasy Hockey Gary Bettman:

And with the 8th pick in round 24, The Avery Rule selects....

Todd Bertuzzi!!!!

Big Bert did not take well to being selected last overall in a 24-round draft

* By the way, this league had spots for the usual (C, LW, RW, D, G) as well as Wingers - Forwards AND Utility spots...I drafted 24 fucking players in this behemoth!!! Thank goodness for the Yahoo! Live Draft timer, btw - had no idea what I got myself into. Always read league settings kids.

Also, I dig the new yahoo draft setup, but I fear this will help some of the idiots in the league I always have with my old college buddies. I guess that's it for the days of getting Teemu Selanne type guys in the 10th round (sad panda face).

Maybe your favorite player just doesn't care

Could you blame Bertuzzi if he hated hockey?

I'm one of those guys that cares too much about sports. And considering the fact that you are reading this post, you probably care a little bit too much as well.

Sometimes, it's important to remember that in a lot of cases, fans simply do care more about the outcome of a game than most of the players. Sure, fans don't have to take cortisone shots to numb the pain that comes with going from shift to shift and game to game; a lot of us simply live and die with every save and every goal.

But as I beat up on Todd Bertuzzi and Rudy grits his teeth when Jordan Staal gets nominated for a Calder over Anze Kopitar, it's pretty amusing to think that a lot of these athletes would roll their eyes or pull our shirts over our heads and gives us a beating for being such sports nerds.

The (typically) tragic story of James Felton is one of those sports stories that "puts things in perspective" and is generally a fascinating read.

According to Rana, the criticism fueled her husband's drinking. And it mixed badly with a secret no one in the neighborhood or gym knew. For as long as she'd known him, Rana says, Felton didn't like basketball. Didn't like playing it, never watched it, tried to avoid talking about it. He didn't even own a ball. "James lived in denial about basketball," she says. "Every day, he'd pretend it was something he liked. It ate him alive. Having to do what you don't want to do will make anyone sick."

It won't stop me from making cheesy and unfair jokes. And it won't keep me from being endlessly fascinated about a glorified children's game.

But it is funny to realize that a lot of these guys could give a rat's ass what we think (or are more interested in that cougar in Row 3 than a "must win game").

Corey Perry floored by new contract

I still think that he dove, though.
Well, as anticipated, Corey Perry is signing a Getzlaf-like contract this morning (Per TSN, it's for the exact same salary cap hit for the same five-year period, but it's structured at $4.5M, $6.5M, $5.375M, $5.375M, and $4.875M). It's pretty fitting that his contract mirrors Getzlaf's: these two kids were born 6 days apart and drafted 9 slots apart, and except for injury, have played every NHL game together they could have except one (G1 last year in London). They're like a less creepy set of Sedins.

I won't talk too much about Getzlaf's impact on Perry, as I think it's evident enough and there aren't really that many games to point to with Perry on another center's wing. I did, however, want to take a look at the third member of the Getzlaf-Perry line, and how that rotated individual seemed to affect Perry's stats.

To do that, I went to Vic Ferrari's NHL Head To Head 5v5 Icetime site, which tracks overlapping ice time for 5-on-5 situations only. For each of Perry's games where he was centered by Getzlaf (66 regular season and 3 playoff), I recorded which winger he shared the most ice time with. Then I went back to my own spreadsheets and calculated Perry's even-strength performance for each of those games. It's a bit imprecise, in that I didn't actually track each goal according to left wing (rather each game according to left wing), but I think it tells enough of a story, which may be a bit surprising.

Corey Perry’s even-strength production in games with this left winger…

	C. Kunitz	T. Bertuzzi	Other
Games Played	36	28	5
EV Minutes	487	422	70
EV G+A=Pts	10 + 9 = 19	8 + 7 = 15	2 + 2 = 4
Per 60 minutes	1.2 + 1.1 = 2.3	1.1 + 1.0 = 2.1	1.7 + 1.7 = 3.4
EV Plus, Minus, +/-	+27, -18, +9	+23, -19, +4	+6, -1, +5
Per 60 minutes	+3.3, -2.2, +1.1	+3.3, -2.7, +0.6	+5.2, -0.9, +4.3

Basically Chris Kunitz and Todd Bertuzzi traded turns playing on Getzlaf and Perry's wing all season, but in five games a different Duck assumed that duty (Sutherby x3, May, and King; I'd classify them all as "bangers"). You can see that Kunitz definitely trumped Bertuzzi in terms of helping Perry's even-strength defense, but look at how well Perry did with an actual banger on his line. Granted, it's a small sample and may have been self-fulfilling (Carlyle plays Sutherby on the top line only in games he is likely to flourish), but I think there is a lesson somewhere in there.

Since they emerged in the league, Getzlaf and Perry have always seemed to thrive with a third linemate banger, who was less about footspeed or stickwork and more about bodychecks. Todd Fedoruk, Brad May, Dustin Penner, Brian Sutherby, and even Jason King have filled that role at times. It's a win-win relationship, when it works: a banger can generate space for Getzlaf and Perry that helps their production, and at the same time a scoring winger like Kunitz can help balance a second line. I really don't know if the production numbers are sustainable, but if I were Carlyle I might try starting Sutherby or May on the top line next year. It may backfire, but if Getzlaf and Perry can make a fourth-line winger contribute on the top line, then a lot of forward-depth problems go away.

Anyways, some food for thought. Back to the main point, glad you're on board, Perry. Don't take this the wrong way, but I'd hate the hell out of you if you wore any of 29 other uniforms.

Help me understand the Ducks' cap situation

(click image to enlarge)
OK, here's the things to know about this chart:

1. I've taken all salary numbers from NHLSCAP.com, except Sutherby's salary comes from the OC Register blog. I have completely made up Perry's salary (I gave him Getzlaf's contract) and Selanne's non-retirement plus salary (I gave him $2M). Those assumptions are shaded in yellow, and certainly worth discussing. I've mostly made them up as placeholders, not as thought-out expectations.

2. I have been very careful to separate actual dollar spending from salary cap calculation, because when Burke talks about spending $50 million, he's talking about money, not averaged salary. In cases where spending is less than cap value, I've colored the dollars-spent in blue font. When spending exceeds cap value, they are colored in red. Contracts over time are generally level or ascending, and blue values usually indicate the start of a new contract.

3. I don't really know the rules about Bertuzzi's waiver status, but I've entered it in as best I know. In fact, the reason I'm posting this is so the BoC readership can correct where I've fucked shit up. I'm too lazy to even find out if buy-outs (like Michael Leighton) are possible in this waiver situation, but that's where informed readership pays off, right? Cleared up thanks to Mike!

4. My totals reflect all the players in boxes (includes Parros and one version of Bertuzzi, but not Salcido). To the right, I also show calculations for Salcido instead of Schneider, and then on top of that to replace Marchant with an anonymous $1-M replacement player. This second step isn't necessarily my recommendation, but Marchant is probably the next option who is getting paid more this year than his salary cap figure. Ironically, his salary is more reasonable this year than any previous year of his contract, considering the context of a fast-increasing salary cap.

5. As I indicate at the bottom of the chart, I've included $1.1M in bonuses for Bobby Ryan, but I have no idea how he does or doesn't earn them. That's one question I'd love to ask Brian Burke; it's probably better if the Anaheim fanbase knew of any constraints around Ryan's playing time.

So anyone who's inclined and knows their cap-math, please take a look at this chart and let me know if I got anything wrong; if you're compelling enough in the comments, I will alter the numbers and this post. I'm hoping to get this cap situation squared up for a follow-up "suggestions" post, but I'd like to get my facts straight first.

For now, I'll say this: keeping Schneider likely presents a salary cap issue, otherwise it's not important. Also, it's probably imperative that Corey Perry get an ascending, Getzlaf-like contract. If the target is to spend $50M this season, then his actual dollar salary needs to be lower than the averaged-amount it will take to sign him.

Anyways, fire away. Let's figure out this goddamn cap math.

Anaheim Ducks Waive Convicted Criminal

"Big Bert" as he is know, mostly to add the cute cuddly image to the reformed Vancouver Canucks goon, has been dropped by the Anaheim Ducks. By waiving the underachieving forward the Ducks hope to buyout his contract and use his $4 million on re-signing valuable forwards such as Teemu Selanne and Corey Perry.

The Ducks will probably look to add grit in Bertuzzi's place if he is replaced by free agency, luckily Sean Avery is too expensive, thank god we don't need more goons on our team.

Trade Possibilities to Keep the Anaheim Ducks Under the Salary Cap

It is already official that the Ducks will have to trade someone this offseason if veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer and forward Teemu Selanne decide to come back to the team after contemplating retirement.

Although the jury is still out, the rumored players to be on the chopping block are:

Todd Bertuzzi – a power forward that did not live up to expectations after his first year in Anaheim. He is currently expected to make $4 million this up-coming season which at 32 and production down makes him an easy trade for Anaheim to a team looking for help. He could draw interest from teams such as Florida, Columbus and who knows where else.

Ken’s take: I was really disappointed with Bertuzzi, he had a hard adjustment to Orange County, but I don’t think he will be Burke’s first option to trade. I look for him to remain in Anaheim.

Todd Marchant – a grinding forward making $2.66 million in 08/09. He was a huge help to the Ducks in winning the Stanley Cup, but is not a huge producer, even for a 33 year old. Not as notable a trade target as Bertuzzi but still would be good for a team.

Ken’s take: Marchant is the third most likely in this list to be traded. He is a good player and doesn’t make much of a dip into the cap. His age is a slight issue, but nothing too serious

Mathieu Schneider – a great offensive defenseman, and was brought in last season to replace Scott Niedermayer during his retirement phase, instead when Niedermayer returned Schneider added great depth on the blue line. His offensive talent saw him light the lamp often in one of final regular season game against the Kings. At 38, Schneider is the oldest player on the Ducks team, and will be collecting $5.75 million in 08/09. Schneider seems likely to be the player the Ducks most want to get rid of. The $5.75million would be nice to have back in the bank.

Ken’s take: If Schneider is the one subtracted from the team, the Ducks could trade for a defenseman worth half as much, and spend the remaining money on Teemu Selanne, and signing another forward or defenseman. The Ducks know they need to improve some small issues over last season such as goal scoring, and with that $5.75 million back, it seems best. Schneider’s age has me wondering why he isn’t one contemplating retirement, as he is older than Niedermayer (33) and Selanne (37).

All three of these players would be good choices, and Brian Burke will certainly get the best deal possible for his team. Before any decisions are made though the Ducks need to know the return status of Teemu and Scott, which is the only way the trade will truly matter.

For example: If both leave the team, then Burke only needs to worry about obtaining enough money for Corey Perry and getting that money should be fairly easily done with a small trade.

Source: Salary figures came from nhlnumber.com

Ducks in legal trouble

Well, I don't know what to make of it just yet, but apparently Ducks owner Henry Samueli is in a bit of hot water. He was named yesterday in a civil fraud complaint against the Broadcom Corporation, and has subsequently stepped down from his position of chairman.

I don't know what this really means for Samueli or the Ducks going forward, but that didn't stop me from making it (and other Duck legal troubles) from being the subject of today's PuckToon at Fanhouse. Enjoy, and if you are inclined, feel free to discuss Wild Wing's legal qualifications in the comments.

Rut Roh...

Well, so much for the Ducks running scared...

Game 5 was one of the best games I've seen in the '08 playoffs. One of those games that makes you mindlessly mutter the words "I love hockey." And I'm fairly certain it wasn't just because I watched it in the sparkling glory that is HD.

(HD and hockey go together like peanut butter and chocolate; Spezza and Heatley; even Bushwhacker Luke and Bushwhacker Butch)

I'm a little concerned, however, that I might have jinxed the Stars. Or is it that Sleek reverse-jinxed the Ducks? I'm on the fence on that one.

Either way, it's going to be a tense game or two for the Stars. Even though the Ducks won and were the superior team at home, the Stars haven't looked out of place very often in this series. Still, it's worrisome for the Stars that the big bad '07 vintage Ducks* seemed to make a frightening return.

This is that tough-as-nails W4 that keeps eluding this franchise. Game 6 (and 7 if necessary) is why the Stars mortgaged a good part of their near future for Brad Richards. The Stars want it more than the Ducks. Now they just have to take it.

*Todd Bertuzzi still sucks though. Even his teammates are getting tired of his un-shooting. He needs to attend a Passaholics Anonymous Meeting with Ales Hemsky and Alex Tanguay.

Game 4: the first DVR-enhanced recap

I meant to post my thoughts last night, but was unable. Here's a grand assortment of what I wrote in my crusty little notebook while zooming through the Stars-Ducks Game 4:

• Todd Bertuzzi either needs to retire or go to Sweden, because he's a waste of life. I remember someone hit an outlet pass to Bertuzzi to set up a 2 on 1. Normally, I'm about to pass out when a team has a 2 on 1. But since it was Bertuzzi, it was easy as a Sunday morning.

Naturally, the play resulted in a flimsy, useless shot.

• Razor Reaugh was in playoff form on the mic in Game 4. There were many gems from the verbose one, but there were two moments that were particularly special:

When Stu Barnes fed Steve Ott for the Stars' third goal, Reaugh said "the architect to the plunderer." And when Chris Pronger was predictably receiving jeers from Stars fans, he said such a sound "might as well be on his iPod." Good stuff.

• Was the Ducks' team meal at Pei Wei or something? Sluggish city.

• Honestly, something seemed wrong with Scott Niedermayer too. I'd say he should retire, but I'll never get tired of watching Lightningbeard skate. His skating style reminds me of those chocolate bar commercials when they drizzle the chocolate onto nougat.

If that's not a compliment I don't know what is.

• Doug Weight was completely invisible. If no one else, Dead Weight needs to hang 'em up.

• If the Stars pull off an amazing Cup run, Brendan Morrow is the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe. He's been a beast.

• It's always uncomfortable to watch a go-nowhere powerplay. You know the ones I'm talking about: when your team cannot even get the friggin' puck past the blue line. Those always flash me back to those awkward moments in high school when the teacher asks the class a question ... and not a single person raises a hand. Bad times.

• Special teams made the difference in this series. The Stars scored four powerplay goals in Game 1; two in Game 2; two in Game 3 and none in Game 4. The Stars scored more than half of their goals (8 of 14) on the man advantage.
  

• To give the Brad Richards trade a fair chance, you simply have to look past his $7.8 million contract. He'll never live up to that, but he does give the Stars an added dimension of creativity. Now the Stars need to give him a solid winger in free agency, because it's clear that his current line mates struggle to finish the great chances he sets up.

• Marty Turco posted a spiritual shutout, garbage goal be damned.

• I thought that if the Stars won this series, they would need to prove a lot. I never thought the Ducks would barely show up. I guess gooning it up takes a lot out of you these days...But we'll see if they have one last gasp of energy. The Stars have to treat the Ducks like a horror movie villain: keep killing them until they stop moving.
  

Scattered playoff thoughts: Gary Roberts, brisket and the evil that is Mike Keenan

It's been a while since I've thrown some Stars perspective in here. I'd like to call my absence "GaryRobertsian"* but I imagine some would just say that I've had a "Brad Richards after the 5 assist game" type drought.

Well, no matter, because I have a few thoughts today and I'll have more this weekend. The reason for that is that I'll finally join the modern era and acquire an unnecessarily spectacular Internet connection.

(Which reminds me of NHL 'o8. Sleek...e-mail your X-Box Live tag and we can have the Digital Battle of California. Any other BoCers/readers are welcome to cower at the feet of my near-embarrassing polygonal domination)

ANYWAY, I wanted to throw a few things out there:

1. Due to my Battle of Pacifician (I really need to stop lazily throwing "-ian" onto words) work hours, I'm going to cover the Stars in a TiVo-friendly way for most of the playoffs. This means that my opinions will be slightly outdated but no less snarky. Think of my opinions as brisket, marinating and tenderizing in my sleep neglected mind.

(I've officially compared myself to Gary Roberts and brisket. Self aggrandizement > self deprecation).

2. I'm really torn on who I think will win the Stars-Ducks series. So, in the spirit of being at a snail mail pace on the rapid fire Internet, I think I'll resolve this issue by posting a hindsight-strengthened "series preview" after game 1.

It's going to be difficult to top last year's Canucks-Stars preview, especially since the Ducks lack Swedish Ginger Twins. I guess there's always Todd Bertuzzi and knucklepuck jokes. Sigh.

3. The only playoff game I saw significant chunks of tonight was Sharks - Flames, which happens to be the only playoff series that ended up coming true in my favorite hypothetical playoff matches post.

Here's a few observations from the Flames - Sharks viewings and the young '08 playoffs:

• I've had this weird feeling that the Sharks could be The Team of Destiny this year, but Fate unfortunately pulled the "I have a headache/I'm washing my hair" excuse tonight.

• Calgary might be the toughest underdog in the playoffs this year (I don't really think 5 seeds are true underdogs, mind you). Kipper has a chance to silence all the fat jokes with a monster playoff run, which is bad news for previous lard ass punchline machine Keith Tkachuk.
  

(Kind of like the South Park episode when Cartman goes to fat camp and another character is the designated fat kid. By the way, is the Cartman - Tkachuk comparison insulting to Cartman or Tkachuk? I'll let you decide that one)

• Jarome Iginla vs. Joe Thornton might be the West's best answer to a Crosby vs. Ovechkin showdown.

• I think I have to root (softly) for the Sharks just because Mike Keenan is pure evil. And I'm not saying that just because he reduced The Ambassador of Fun to tears.

If you're not pumped for this time of year, I'd recommend that you take up knitting, huffing or huffing while knitting.

*Wow...disturbing side note. Be careful when you Google Image Search Gary Roberts. I hope Pensblog means Gary Roberts - NHL player when they ask WWGRD? because the other Gary Roberts apparently would respond to most questions by saying "I would draw naked Japanime characters to disturb unsuspecting hockey fans." Yikes. At least it's not naked cartoon men, right?

Ducks Gameday—Updated Logo

Phoenix Coyotes (38-37-6, 12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (46-27-8, 3rd in west)

Memo to the league: Pronger's back, so watch your head (and shins)! In fact, I've gone ahead and updated my re-designed Ducks logo to help remind opponents of the constant danger they are in:

Note: Ducking might not prevent getting stomped on.
Prediction: Ducks 3, Coyotes 2, in the last meaningless game of the year. Goals by the thugs: Pronger, Mayday, and Bertuzzi.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Scattered advice from a tired blogger

Vancouver Canucks (35-24-10, 8th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (39-25-8, 4th in west)

Here's how the season series with Vancouver has gone thus far this season:

G1: Ducks allow the first four goals, lose 4-0.
G2: Ducks allow the first three goals, lose 3-2.
G3: Ducks allow the first two goals, lose 2-1.

So how about this time, the Ducks try scoring first (or at least, second)? I've got this wacky theory about the Canucks in that they're damn difficult to come back against when it comes to multi-goal deficits. An early lead might prove fruitful. It's sort of an untested theory at this point, but I'd sure like to see the Ducks give it a try tonight.

I suppose the Sharks and Stars are the target now, with first round home ice being the reward for catching one of them. I've always thought that home ice advantage was a bit overblown, however, and based on the Ducks' shootout lineup last night, the Anaheim coaching staff thinks so also. Here's the shootout lineup that they threw out there last night, which lost laughingly to Bryzgalov and his Coyote friends.

Todd Bertuzzi I actually did see Bertuzzi score on a breakaway against Nabokov this year, but it was in the same game where he had earlier failed on a penalty shot, so essentially it took him two breakaways to score. Bert's still got some hands, but let's not kid ourselves here. He doesn't willfully take shots during the game, what makes him any sort of candidate for the shootout? Bad call, Carlyle.

Todd Marchant This is wrong on so many levels (on every platform except NHL 07). Todd Marchant gets about 40 breakaways a year and scores on zero of them. He is the king of not scoring on glorious scoring chances (where do you think he got the nickname Stone Hands?), but rather will score goals like we've seen in the last two games: fluky bounce-pucks that leave a brown taste in goaltenders' mouths. Horrible call, Carlyle, especially when Stone Hands dropped the puck halfway to the net. Next time I see Marchant in a shootout, he'd better be the fifteenth shooter.

Chris Pronger Yeah, I think a lot of people saw Pronger in '06 become the first person to score a penalty shot goal in the cup finals, but few are clinging to that memory the way Carlyle is. C'mon, coach. He's wearing a frickin' jaw basket and you think it might be time to hearken back to beating Cam the sham Ward? Rotten call, Carlyle.

Look. The Ducks lose shootouts all the time, and I'm always very cool about it. I know that Anaheim has designed its roster around owning the boards, and thus they regularly seem out of their element in shootouts. And that's cool with me--boardwork wins in the postseason, whereas Dallas, one team that can be associated with shootout success, has yet to win a playoff round since the shootout was invented. Still, last night for the first time I really found myself livid, not necessarily at the shootout result, but rather in the manner and lineup that the Ducks decided to lose it. Since Carlyle took over the team, last night stands as the one time I can think of where the Ducks almost intentionally left standings points on the table. An odd time of the year for those sort of shenanigans, that's for sure.

I'll let it slide, but dear god Carlyle, if that's the shootout strategy, why not just let the opposing coach pick our shooters? Odds are, we'd probably have seen Marchant get stripped of the puck by an imaginary defender in either case.

Maybe more pressing is what I saw in regulation, which certainly was a mixed bag. Here's my advice: Bertuzzi or Weight needs to start firing some pucks on net, or these two have to be separated immediately. They are forming a huge hole on the 2nd line, and that's a huge chunk of salary to be paying guys to do nothing except feed Todd Marchant or Bobby Ryan (who can be double-covered since he's the only one who shoots). Try these top two lines: Bertuzzi-Getzlaf-Selanne and Kunitz-Weight-Ryan. Yeah, it sucks separating Kunitz from Selanne, but Weight and Bertuzzi both need to be played carefully, and frankly I just don't see them being anywhere near productive with each other. Maybe five years ago that duo would have worked, but that was back in an era when these guys willingly shot the puck. Now it's like pulling teeth, and I find both guys frustratingly easy to defend because of it.

Prediction: My dad and brother are at the game tonight, and I am not. Neither of them are particularly hockey fans, so I bet they see a yawner and I get to hear about how boring hockey is for the next six months. Ducks 2, Canucks 1. Goals by Pahlsson and Huskins. The game ends in regulation, causing Carlyle to shelf his alternate shootout lineup of O'Donnell, Sutherby, and May. Feel free to offer your own "worst shootout lineup" suggestion for the Ducks in the comments.

Go Ducks.

Daydreaming about the 2008 playoffs...

After watching PJ Swenson’s great Stanley Cup interview and with the (weak) hubbub surrounding the NHL All-Star game, I couldn’t help but think to a few months from now when the games start to matter again.

With all that in mind, I thought it would be fun to conjure up the most appealing Western Conference playoff matchups that are within the realm of reason (sorry Kings and Oilers fans).

Detroit vs. Colorado

After all these years, the Red Wings still are the gold standard of the NHL and Joe Sakic is still considered the face of the former Nordiques franchise (even if this season is marred by injuries).

But chances are, at least in the case of Quoteless Joe, that the times will be changing soon enough. So wouldn’t it be nice to watch one last battle of the NHL’s greatest modern blood feud? Hell, maybe we can even get Claude Lemieux to turtle on the ice during the ceremonial first drop of the puck.

For the record, if the playoffs started today, this would be the first round pairing.

Minnesota/Columbus vs. Dallas

I lump those two teams together for a simple reason: both teams bring Ghosts of the Stars Hockey Past. The atmosphere in Minnesota when the Stars came to town during the playoffs, with former North Star (can you believe he actually skated with an N on his jersey at one point?) Mike Modano would be surreal. And that would be good, because aside from a Ribeiro deke here and a Gaborik breakaway there, the games would probably be bland enough to put Mario Lemieux in a trap induced coma.

The Columbus Blue Jackets would bring The Ghost of Stanley Cup Past in the form of former head coach Ken Hitchcock. Could the formerly mustachioed former coach lead his ragtag group of upstarts past his older, more talented former team? That would be an interesting storyline, no doubt.

Detroit vs. Vancouver

The best team in the league against the league’s best goalie…it really doesn’t get much better than that. Also: could the Sedin twins use their super secret Swedish doppelganger tricks to bedevil mechadefenseman Niklas Lidstrom? (No)

Calgary vs. San Jose

Joe Thornton vs. Jarome Iginla; Kipper vs. Nabby; Mike Keenan vs. Ron Wilson; a big, talented offense against a big, tough defense. This series would feature enough contrasting elements that people would grow ill from Irresistible Force vs. Immovable Object references.

Detroit vs. Anaheim

It would be a travesty if the best series from last year’s playoffs didn’t take place again. If I were a gambling man, I would put money on that being the WCF for a second year in a row. Who would win? That’s hard to say.

But the Ducks would have the man curse that is Bertuzzi on their “side” this time around.

As great as all of these matchups would be, the only battle that has to happen is the one you saw coming a mile away

San Jose vs. Anaheim

This needs to be the year that the Battle of California takes place. Come on guys, seriously. Stop teasing us.

The Kings Listen to Me...

...or, I guess, Helene Elliot: Ted Purcell and Peter Harrold have been called up. Cammalleri was retroactively placed on the IR.

Also, this made me laugh (courtesy of Inside the Kings):

"Brian Willsie woke up Sunday morning with a sore lower back. He wasn't in discomfort during the Dallas game and can't point to any specific play where he got hurt. He just woke up with the injury."


(Scene: Willsie shows up to practice, ready to work on his game.)

Crawford: Sorry, Brian, you can't practice today; you're hurt.

Willsie: What? No I'm not.

Crawford: Yeah, you hurt your back last night while you were sleeping. You can' t play.

Willsie: No, really, my back feels fine.

(Suddenly, Todd Bertuzzi appears behind Willsie and hits him in the back with a baseball bat. Willsie falls to the floor and clutches his back)

Willsie: Ahh, what the fuck!

Crawford (calmly): See, you're hurt. Now get your stuff out of your locker, Purcell needs to use it.

Catching up...a bit

Well, it's been a long, long LONG time since I've written about hockey, the Stars and the BoC. I've been in DC for months, with very little exposure to hockey (my housemates watched plenty of Versus, unfortunately it was of the rodeo and low budget UFC-ish league variety).

You'd think I would have been able to soak in all things Ovechkin, but I never had a chance to go to a game and only watched a few on TV. My, mostly unfair, thoughts about the Caps can be summarized real quick, as I know BoCers care little of the DC puckers:

1. Maybe this is due to my Crosby fawning, but although I endorse Alex O's talent, I wonder if he's not just a bulked up Pavel Bure. Yes, he makes my brain explode at times with his goal scoring ability. But I feel like he's one of those NBA shoot-first point guards at times: just as likely to shoot his team in the foot and turn over the ball/puck over badly as he is likely to score a breathtaking highlight reel goal.

I don't know if he's really going to be a winner and I don't know if he makes his teammates much better. He almost reminds of Washington's other fawned over, flawed superstar Gilbert Arenas.

2. That Bakstrom kid is really good.

3. When it comes to disappointment, V. Kozlov is like saying "Bertuzzi" in Russian.

4. No one in Washington DC seems to care about any of this. And the ones who do happen to make up its jawdropping blogosphere, most notably Eric McErlain. If not for Ovie, they wouldn't deserve so many bloggers.

Anyway, a lot of big developments have passed me by for the most part. I still need to do a double take whenever I watch a Stars' road game, with those weird Reebok demons (pictured above)

Ex-GM Doug Armstrong is replaced by a duo that includes...Bret Hull? Strange.

The Stars remain near the top of the Pacific. I'm starting to associate them with other teams who are experts at merely entering the playoffs: the pre-lockout St. Louis Blues, the long ago KC Chiefs. Might as well call them the Dallas Schottenheimers.

Anyway, I'll be around more frequently (though I still lack a stable Internet relationship) to throw some Stars and general NHL-related thoughts in when I can.

Ducks Gameday—Who would you move to make Niederroom?

Anaheim Ducks (14-12-4, t-6th in west) at Nashville Predators (13-11-2, 11th in west)

The second guest-art installment
in the spade-in-victorhell series.
I don't have much to say about last night's game against Chicago, except (a) the Ducks won despite being outshot 42 - 22, and (b) Andy McDonald and Todd Bertuzzi went back to being invisible again. I regularly told my roommate, "Man, I can't believe we're winning this game," but whatever--I'm happy enough with the two points that I won't raise a stink. I'm guessing the same strategy won't work nearly as well in Nashville, though.

NIEDERWATCH: Here's my un-scientific listing of who's most likely to be moved to make tag room for Scotty, a list that shuffles quite regularly and isn't based on much more than my mood. I've included each player's next-year-cap figure, per NHLSCAP.com.

1. Matthieu Schneider ($5.625 M): I think logically, Schneider's paid way too much for a third-highest-paid defenseman. Even with goals in each of his last two games, I think the only reason that Schneidermayer would stay is if Burke is dead-set on icing the best blueline in NHL history, or if he's determined that Scott won't play next year and wants to pro-actively address that. As a bonus, moving Schneider might make enough tag room to sign Corey Perry to an early extension (provided Perry is willing to stay in the $4 M range).

2. Todd Marchant ($2.518 M): Even though the Ducks are forward-thin and Marchant has proved his value and versatility (especially in the last playoffs), it is a lot of salary for a guy to anchor a fourth line. Moving Marchant might involve moving a draft pick as well, though we'll see how cagey Burke can be. I'd certainly miss "Stone Hands" Marchant, as he has the highest PS2-to-Actual talent ratio on the team, but I feel that a kid like Petteri Wirtanen could play the fourth-line center role responsibly enough in limited minutes.

3. Andy McDonald ($3.333 M): Andy Mac has certainly had it rough this young season, though the dropoff in linemate talent is astronomical between Teemu Selanne last year and Mark Mowers earlier this year. Still, I don't know if to my eyes he's lost any speed or ability; he just seems to be more effective when opponents have to focus on his wingers more. Burke had better be more in tune with Teemu's mindset than I am; if Selanne is coming back, then Andy Mac drops to the bottom of this list; he was our best forward in the cup finals.

4. Francois Beauchemin ($1.650 M): Frenchie is another enigma of sorts; his goals-against rates were much better back when Scotty was covering his back. He is certainly underpaid for the amount of minutes that he plays, and thus should be fairly easy to move (in fact, I would expect some return in a Frenchie trade). Still, we shouldn't forget Frenchie's impact on the '06 playoffs; his fist-fight with Iginla and shoulder-hit on Brunette were enormous factors in advancing past Calgary and Colorado.

5. Sean O'Donnell ($1.250 M): Probably O'Donnell should be higher on this list, but I'll tell you: I think O.D. has been a tremendous team-first guy on this roster. I mean, the guy was an unrestricted free agent defenseman in a zany marketplace who had just won the Stanley Cup, and he signed back on the team for a PAY CUT. That is pretty huge in my books, and I hope that fact isn't lost on Burke. You know exactly what you are going to get on the ice with O.D.--the safest play he's capable of--but there's always a role for that kind of guy.

6. Some combination of Travis Moen ($913 K), Shane Hnidy ($718 K), Kent Huskins ($625 K), Brad May ($600 K), or George Parros ($550 K): I think dollarwise, this means Moen plus another guy. Moen (or as I call him, "the Omen") has had rough counting numbers but is still contributing defensively on the Pahlsson line. Plus he was HUGE in the playoffs, t-2nd on the team in goals and t-1st on the team in game-winners. Hnidy has been better of late, though his first instinct always seems to be to grab a guy with his free hand. The other three have all been improvements on last year's versions. There seems to be some possibility here (all these guys seem replaceable enough), but I don't think it's going to happen--it adds to the trade complexity and starts removing too many parts of an already-thin roster.

7. Todd Bertuzzi ($4.000 M): I talk trash on Bertuzzi more than most Duck fans, but given Bert's salary, I don't think there's many GMs that will easily take the guy--he'll probably cost the EDM first-rounder to move, I'd guess. But I'm not sure I'm entirely pessimistic about keeping Bertuzzi. Sure he's a floater who needs limited puck exposure, but as we saw with Penner last year, there's a way that Bertuzzi can be played effectively--essentially he'll be as good as his linemates can make him. Bert will probably look really bad on a bad team but may look really good on a good one, and if this team does take a step forward, I'm willing to stay on the Bertuzzi bet a little while longer.

So that's my list, based on zero inside sources and just my gut feel. Two things to note: (a) Burke has made his trade-timeframe public, and will not be bargaining from a position of strength. As we've seen in the case of Ilya Bryzgalov, it doesn't seem to be the case that rival GMs are in any hurry to do Burke any favors. (b) Going for Burke, though, is the fact that there isn't any real need to get any return for whichever player gets moved. Scotty (with the possibility of some Teemu) is plenty of return already. It wouldn't even be that bad if a player got on the waiver train to Phoenix.

So, just for fun, if you were Burke, which player would you look to unload? Unleash your fantasy GM skills in the comments.

Prediction: I'm not that optimistic; I'm guessing Nashville carries a lot of the play today. Still, Ducks 3, Preds 2. Goals by Platt, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Earl answers his mail: Forward Lines, a year-to-year comparison

Sleek,

The Ducks play so far has me frustrated. And you seem like the guy to help explain the frustration. I'm curious about ES TOI this year versus last year for the Duck's containment line. As yourself, I'm a huge fan of Pahlsson, but it seems like that line is getting more ES TOI this year. Could just be my imagination.

However, if it's true, then it might explain some of the drop off in scoring. And also point to a coaching phylosophy that needs to change. The Ducks need to dictate play, rather than react (by over-using the containment line).
Keep up the great work on the blog.

Jeremy

I'm a sucker for flattery, and yeah, I do have been keeping some spreadsheets for this sort of question, so without further ado, let's take a look at the forward lines for Anaheim, this year compared to last year. In a lazy move, I'm just using screen captures of Excel tables; hopefully they are all legible.

For the Ducks, it really makes sense to compare forwards by their on-ice responsibility, because I think context matters a great deal in Carlyle's strategy. The Ducks play a top scoring line against the opposition's top defenders, a stopper line against the opposition's top scorers, and a sheltered line that for the most part doesn't carry either responsibility. The tables below are meant to reflect that, and show each line's even-strength minutes per game, even-strength points per 60 minutes, and even-strength goal-differential per 60 minutes. I'll try to indicate numbers that stand out to me after each table.

The Top Line:
With the departure of Teemu Selanne, the top line minutes this year have gone to the kids--Getzlaf and Perry. In terms of even-strength TOI, it seems the top line is playing more than it did last year. The thing about this year's top line is that while their point production seems adequate when compared against last year, this year's version bleeds goals-against at a higher level than Selanne's line ever did. It's a fair concern, as it does put a lot of the burden of outscoring onto the other lines.

The Stopper Line:
Unlike the other lines in this analysis, the stopper line continues this year without any change in personnel. In terms of Jeremy's question, we can note that the even-strength minutes-per-game have increased, and also noticeable is that the stopper line is scoring at a lower rate than they were last year. Even so, the rate at which the line gets outscored (quite a reasonable outcome considering the difficulty of minutes) hasn't changed a whole lot--the stopper line is still contributing like they did last year, though with a lower offensive output.

The Shelter Line:
This is where things get a little shady, as this "second line" personnel has been fairly shifty this year, and even Dustin Penner last year wasn't a full-time member of the Getzlaf line. Still, this gives a sense of who's getting the easier minutes on the team and what's being done with them. A big reason for last year's success can be pinned on the fact that Getzlaf and Perry were able to dominate these minutes, something that McDonald and Bertuzzi, in particular, seem unable to do. These players, too, seem to have picked up some minutes-per-game, something we've seen on every line thus far.

A quick look at special teams:
Here are each year's top minute-men on the power play and on the penalty kill. The power play scoring rates are obviously lower this year than last year, and a lot of that can be pinned on the 2nd unit's personnel--giving Mark Mowers and Rob Niedermayer power play time isn't in any winning coach's strategy book. Going by minutes, it seems that the Ducks have less power play time per game than last year, which probably correlates to the additional even-strength ice time we've seen on every line.

As for the penalty kill, the top pairing of Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer seem to be as effective as last year, but the secondary unit of Marchant and Moen has seen a steep drop-off in goal prevention.

Conclusions:

I think this analysis has been useful in seeing which minutes, in particular, seem to be preventing the Ducks from experiencing success similar to last year's. The problems that I can see are that the shelter line isn't finding a way to outscore soft competition, the top line is allowing more goals-against, and the stopper line could score some more goals. However, on an overall level I can't say that overplaying the Pahlsson line looks to be the Ducks' problem--that line, at least, has differential rates similar enough to last year.

Really, though, the Ducks' problem isn't really one that's explained through the forward minutes, I think. Certainly there are effects that come from personnel changes, but I think what's causing the dropoff more is the lack of a second Norris defenseman; last year these lines either had the benefit of usually a Pronger or a Niedermayer on their blueline, but nowadays Pronger minutes can only be distributed so far (usually in a defensive setting, as nobody else is really trustworthy).

The Ducks' movie theme thus far.
I have no idea what sort of team the Ducks would become if or when Scott Niedermayer rejoins the team, but I gotta think that a lot of these issues could be compensated by a blueline that's better at retrieving the puck and creating offense through transition. In that regard, TSN's Bob McKenzie has fantastic news for Ducks fans; Scott may be returning to the roster very soon.

If that happens, I'll gladly re-run these numbers after several games to see what effect another Norris defender has on the forward minutes. I'm not sure it can get back to last year's numbers, but I'll be happy for any improvement to what's become a rather mediocre team. In the meantime, I'll probably throw another post up pretty soon to show the defenseman minutes, where the Ducks' year-to-year dropoff will probably be more apparent.

Thanks for the question, Jeremy. As always, Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Bertuzzi: more notorious than productive

Anaheim Ducks (11-9-4, t-3rd in west) at Vancouver Canucks (12-9-2, t-3rd in west)

I am sick as a dog today, so I'll try to keep this short and sweet. Tonight will be Todd Bertuzzi's first game against Vancouver since he was traded away for Luongo, plus it will be Anaheim's first game against the Canucks since eliminating them in five games last spring. Of course there's plenty of reaction from the Vancouver side of things: Canucks and Beyond, Canucks Hockey Blog, the Yankee Canuck, Orland Kurtenblog, and Waiting for Stanley all have some pregame that's much less congested.

While I understand why Todd Bertuzzi gets the spotlight today, it should be noted that Duck fans are still waiting to get some acceptable production out of the $4 M monster; despite playing the easiest 5-on-5 minutes on the Ducks, Bertuzzi has the team's worst 5-on-5 goals-against rate. Here's a comparison to the guy with the toughest 5-on-5 minutes in the league (source: Behind the Net, min. games = 5, min. TOI = 5).

Todd Bertuzzi, 10 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: -0.18 (589 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.31 (565 / 628)
Plus per hour: +2.44, Minus per hour: -3.05, Diff per hour: -0.61

Sammy Pahlsson, 19 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: +0.33 (1 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.23 (510 / 628)
Plus per hour: +1.69, Minus per hour: -1.44, Diff per hour: +0.24

We'll see how well Bertuzzi is able to pull a season together, but at this point, he's got a lot of improving to do. Carlyle has sheltered his minutes as best as he can, now Bert has got to find a way to start outscoring some of the worst opposition in the league.

See also: my poem about Bertuzzi's concussion and my Bertuzzi-inspired comic book series.

Prediction: Lost a little bit in this preview is the fact that Roberto Luongo has only managed to beat J.S. Giguere once in eight tries last year, and that victory took two overtime periods to achieve. He's still the only goaltender to beat Giguere in a playoff OT game, but other than that has had a real difficult time being the better goaltender when going head-to-head. Giguere keeps the Luongdomination going tonight: Ducks 4, Canucks 2. Goals by Kunitz, Sutherby, Pahlsson, and Schneider; Bertuzzi finishes a -2.

Go Ducks.