Kings Gameday: Way to Go, Sean

LA Kings (10-10-3) @ Phoenix Coyotes (10-11-2)

6:30 PST, Fox Sports West


Last night the Kings were leading, 1-0, going into the 3rd period. They hadn't played particularly well, but had used a fast start to gain an advantage on the scoreboard. During the 2nd intermission, Terry Murray stressed the importance of not taking a penalty because the Kings had just been given a 5-on-3 (which of course they didn't score on) late in the 2nd. The very first shift of the 3rd period, Sean O'Donnell carried the puck up ice and attempted to pass it out of his own zone. Unfortunately, he bounced it off a Toronto player and then hooked another Toronto player that was attempting to skate the puck into the zone. Penalty, Sean O'Donnell. The penalty was exacerbated by an unfortunate Dustin Brown trip and the Maple Leafs scored on the two-man advantage.



Way to go, Sean.

Still, the Kings were tied and only had to kill off the rest of Dustin Brown's penalty. O'Donnell was rested because he had been in the box and came out to kill the penalty. He made a nice play to corral the puck behind his own net and tried to pass it to Drew Doughty. Unfortunately, there was a Toronto player standing in the way; the Toronto player easily intercepted the pass and relayed it to a teammate in front of the net for an easy goal.


Way to go, Sean.

No King had a good game last night, with the possible exception of Alex Frolov, but I don't think I've seen one player screw up a team's chances of winning a game that much since Denis Gauthier thought he was a Red Wing at the beginning of the season. I think of players as contributing positively and negatively; some players, like Tom Preissing, are going to make a lot of good plays that contribute to goals but they're also going to fuck up and cost the team goals. The trick is to get more positive plays than negative plays. Sean O'Donnell does not make many positive plays but he usually doesn't make many negative plays. I like O'Donnell and I don't want to be mean to him or anything, but he cost the Kings the game last night.

***

Kind of funny: last night, some shitheel named Andre Deveaux got feisty with Anze Kopitar, hoping to send a message to the Kings or some such. Brown bumped Deveaux, then Peter Harrold came over and shoved him. Then Raitis Ivanans came out on the ice. Ivanans followed Deveaux all over the ice, trying to convince Deveaux to drop the gloves. Deveaux refused, both because he was trying to goad Ivanans into a penalty and because he didn't want to die. Then, after the whistle, Wayne Simmonds tried to get Devaux to go and again was refused. It's good to see teammates standing up for one another.

***

Phoenix has kind of sucked this year, huh? They're 28th in the league in scoring, which is not what I expected. They're also missing Olli "Big Baby" Jokinen, who is out with a shoulder injury, so this is another game that the Kings should win. Let's hope the Kings play a little better tonight.

Prediction: Kings win, 4-2. Goals by... whoever.

Mmm... Doughnuts

Drew Doughty played 27 minutes tonight.

Also:

Sean O'Donnell: 0 G, 3 A, +4, 12 PIM

Mathieu Schneider: 1 G, 3 A, -11, 14 PIM

Also:

Kyle Quincey: 11 Games, 2 G, 6 A, Even, 6 PIM

Rob Blake: 17 Games, 2 G, 7 A, -2, 24 PIM


Well played, Lombardi.

What the O'Donnell Trade Means for Los Angeles

The Kings are cooking now! ...I hate myself.

The Kings needed a experienced, left-handed defenseman, and yet getting Sean O'Donnell never even crossed my mind. I think I have a mental block on all non-Jewish Ducks players. But luckily Dean Lombardi doesn't have the same handicap and managed to acquire O'Donnell for basically nothing. The gist is that the Kings have to give the Ducks a 3rd rounder only if the Kings decide to trade O'Donnell at the deadline. It's a pretty smart clause by Burke: it pretty much guarantees that O'Donnell won't come back and bite him in the ass (unless, you know, he's into that sort of thing). It was also a good move for Lombardi, as he gets a "good character guy"* and a solid defensive specialist basically for free.

*You always hear that someone's a good character guy, but we really have no idea. Yeah O'Donnell is probably a nice guy, but maybe he hits his kids. Nobody really knows. You never hear that a European is a good character guy, either.

O'Donnell's impact on the Ducks' defense has been overstated at this point. The aging blueliner averaged 17 minutes a game, good for 6th among Anaheim defensemen. O'Donnell skated mostly with Chris Pronger, but Pronger also skated an additional 3 minutes with other people. At even strength O'Donnell is probably a little bit of a liability, as he has a penchant for taking penalties and is losing a step. However, O'Donnell's a pretty big asset on the penalty kill; when they weren't in the box, O'Donnell and Pronger formed one of the best penalty kill tandems in the league. I expect O'Donnell and Jack Johnson to form the Kings' top penalty killing unit this season. Finally, Sean O'Donnell is someone who will defend his teammates. He had 4 fights last year, mostly when someone pissed him off, and isn't afraid to put someone on his ass if they're around the goaltender. Brent Severyn won't be able to take liberties with Dmitri Khristich when Sean O'Donnell's on the ice. Plus, he grows a mean beard.


The addition of O'Donnell does not really make the Kings' defense that much better, but he does provide an solid presence to counteract the youth of the team. If Drew Doughty makes the team I imagine Terry Murray will pair him with O'Donnell; a young defender needs a guy he can trust to cover for his inexperience and O'Donnell would be perfect for that. I swear I remember O'Donnell playing on the right side when he was with the Kings and that he switched to the left so he could play with Pronger, but I'm not sure. Any Wild fans remember where O'Donnell played? I see the defense shaking out this way:

Greene-Johnson
Preissing-Harrold
Doughty-O'Donnell
Gauthier

That's still terrible, but it's a little better than when I woke up yesterday morning. Oh well, I guess we'll just have to see how it shakes out. Overall, I'd give Lombardi an A for the individual move and a C when looking at the overall picture. Getting an NHL defenseman for nothing is obviously a good idea, but I think the Kings could have gotten someone much better if he had been willing to take on a little more salary.

***

The Kings and the Ducks played last night at Staples Center and the Ducks won in a shootout, 2-1. Terry Murray continued rewarding players for their effort in the shootout, as Matt Moulson, Ted Purcell and David Meckler were all given an opportunity and failed miserably. Chris Kunitz scored the lone goal for the Ducks in the shootout. On the plus side, Jason Labarbera played very well, stopping 30 of 31 shots. He'll be the Kings' #1 goaltender and will hopefully be more consistent this season. Wayne Simmonds got in 2 fights and got his first profile in the LA Times. Good for him.

Finally, Connie from Queen Among Kings has her Frozen Fury recap up and unveils Air Bailey. I knew the guy that used to wear a suit like that for Long Beach State; he had a person walk around with him because little kids used to try to push him down the stairs.

Craig Custance has my e-mail address?

Well, I'm too lazy to write my own post today, but thankfully the Sporting News has stepped in. This e-mail was sent to a few independent bloggers, myself included:

Just thought I'd share with you guys as we continue to try and build Sporting News Today. Thanks as usual!

- Craig

I'll ignore the "as usual" part (as I'm pretty sure this is the first correspondence), but it's sort of cool that the Sporting News pegged BoC as a distribution outlet for its pretty keen Brian Burke Q&A feature. Is it innovation? Desperation? Hard to say, but I'd recommend all readers to check out Puck Daddy's piece yesterday on the declining state of newspaper coverage.

Anyways, I thought I'd go ahead and post the Sporting News piece, in the hopes that someday I could ask a question or two of Mr. Burke. Enjoy!

Look Inside >> October 1, 2008

Ugh. The embed code they sent seems to suck. Try clicking here instead.

And while I'm in the spirit of link-happiness, you can click here to see Chris Pronger's blog reaction to the O'Donnell trade.

Go Ducks.

Sean O'Donnell is a King

Step aside, little ones.
Wow.

More coming, but first let's hear the various sides yell "NOOOOOOOO!!!!" in the comments.

[UPDATE: The OC Register has more:

The conditional pick means that if O’Donnell is traded again before the deadline this season, the Ducks will receive the Kings’ third round pick. If the the Kings keep O’Donnell past the deadline, the Ducks would get nothing in return.

Clever deal. Normally I'd expect Lombardi to turn down deals just to keep his own draft pick, but if he gets offered a 2nd-rounder, would he turn it down?]

Anaheim's All-Time Team: the 5th and 6th Defensemen

Well, I was happy enough with the variety of responses I got from my search for a #1 center for the all-time Anaheim Sometimes-Mighty Ducks of Anaheim that I think I'll continue this "ask the audience" theme before publishing my own roster (note: feel free to continue voting on centermen). Today's theme: third-pairing defensemen.

I won't spend much time justifying my picks for the top-four blueliners just yet (that will come with the unveiling), but just know that Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Fredrik Olausson, and Oleg Tverdovsky have all been pre-qualified, leaving just two slots to fill. I've narrowed the field down to eleven candidates, whom I'll list chronologically, but if you feel I've slighted anyone feel free to write in your own answer (c'mon, Trnka and Huskins fans). Which two players deserve a spot on Anaheim All-Time Team's blueline? Here we go!

Bobby Dollas (1993-94 to 1997-98)
305 gp, 28-61-89, +31

I'll have to admit; I was a fledgling fan back in Bobby Dollas' heyday, and my memory is sort of shoddy to the point where I only remember a blend of Dollas and Karpa. But hey, actual remembering isn't a requirement for the All-Time team, and Dollas was an original mainstay. I was shocked at his +31 career plus-minus for Anaheim, which is best on this list, as the old-school Mighty Duck teams weren't much to brag about.

Dave Karpa (1994-95 to 1997-98)
245 gp, 7-43-50, +5

See above. I believe Karpa played hockey in much more a tripod-fashion than did Dollas, but I can't even say that with 100% certainty. Still, you should give some credit to the old-school guard; they didn't have nearly the quality of linemates as recent Ducks players have enjoyed. If anyone wants to do justice to the memories of Dollas and Karpa, feel free.

Dmitri Mironov (1996-97 to 1997-98)
128 gp, 18-64-82, +13

Mironov was a short-term Duck, but he was productive (his .641 points-per-game is tops on this list). Not only a quality regular-season performer, but Dmitri also posted a point-per-game in Anaheim's first playoffs in 1997 (1-10-11 in 11 games). Strangely, I was never that enamored with Mironov's game -- he never seemed that dominant and I definitely don't recall being upset when he left the team. Again, though, this was the early days of Sleek the hockey fan.

Ruslan Salei (1996-97 to 2005-06)
594 gp, 26-79-105, -3

Ah, now we're getting more into my memory's wheelhouse. "Salei of Game" or "Cirque du Salei" was a mainstay for a decade on the Anaheim blueline, and his 594 regular season games is tops of all Anaheim defensemen. He was tough, dirty, and at times had above-average hockey sense, though there was always the sense he had the tools to be even better. Still, when the Ducks were down 3 games to 2 to Calgary in the 1st round of the 2006 playoffs, I thought that Salei more than anyone really elevated his play to help the team advance. Plus he's from Belarus.

Niclas Havelid (1999-00 to 2003-04)
310 gp, 24-61-85, -42

Ah, Havelid, the Swedish component of the 2003 miracle blueline. Havelid has pretty strong counting numbers (85 ANA points is third-best on this list), but man that minus-42 rating really stands out, doesn't it? At least the guy got an even rating in the 2003 playoff run. I'm not sure that Havelid ultimately belongs on this list, but in case there are any Swedish die-hards he's in the running.

Vitaly Vishnevski (1999-00 to 2005-06)
416 gp, 11-37-48, -11

Vish-dog in da house! I'm way too enamored with Vishnevski to give an unbiased description here, but despite his inability to score (by far the worst scoring rate on the list), Vish-dog is still second-all-time in games played by an Anaheim defenseman. His real skill isn't so much about scoring anyway, but more about creating opportunities to murder people on the ice. Sure his out-of-position wandering backfires, and sure he departed under suspect circumstances (traded right after arbitration), but he is by definition a third-pairing kind of guy, and unlike anyone else on this list, I do own a Vishnevski jersey.

Keith Carney (2001-02 to 2005-06)
271 gp, 13-48-61, +30

Damn, "Carney Asada" was an awesome defenseman for the Ducks -- a steady Eddie who was as vital to the 2003 cup run as anybody not named Giguere. He came to the team as a veteran, and seemingly was always one bad turn away from never standing up again, but he was a tough battler and a smart blueliner. Carney's offensive talents were average at best, but I'll never forget the pass he made to Rucchin to cement the 2003 Wings sweep -- the only time ever I've seen Carney behind an opponent's net.

Sandis Ozolinsh (2002-03 to 2005-06)
84 gp, 13-27-40, -1

Ozos is another short-timer, but probably represents Anaheim's best ever mid-season pickup on the blueline. While Sandis is well-known for his offensive skills and defensive shortcomings, I actually found him to be respectable on both ends of the rink, at least during his 2003 season. Consider: he was a team-best plus-8 in the 2003 playoffs, and was on the ice for all four of Anaheim's game-winning goals in the 2003 series against Dallas (all of which came after the 58-minute mark of the game). That's pretty damn clutch, and Ozos was pretty special to watch. Counting against Ozos? Everything after the 2003 cup finals.

Francois Beauchemin (2005-06 to current)
214 gp, 17-66-83, +6

I'm not sure how well to rate Beauchemin in this exercise, as Frenchie has yet to show much in the category of "playing without Scott Niedermayer". Still, the guy was a gem in 2006 and has been a steady enough player the last two seasons, and his early playoff heroics (punching out Iginla in Calgary and shouldering Brunette in G1 of the COL series) are legendary. I don't know where Ducks fans sit on Frenchie -- I've met fans who absolutely love him and fans who can't stand him (honestly, I don't really understand either side). Still, his 66 Anaheim assists ranks second on this list.

Sean O'Donnell (2005-06 to current)
182 gp, 5-24-29, +21

Another sheer wall of steadiness who also has spent some time piggybacking on a former Norris trophy winner, O'Donnell has been a great shut-down minute-eater for the Ducks, especially once paired with Pronger in 2006. O'Donnell is second-worst to Vishnevski in terms of offense, but that's not his game. In fact, I've never seen a defenseman throw so many pucks intentionally wide of the net to avoid opposing shot-blockers. But that's O'Donnell: safe and solid, and that is a huge contribution when facing the opponents' best. I'm not considering salary on this all-time team, but I was super-impressed when UFA O'Donnell, right after winning the Stanley Cup, re-signed with the Ducks for a discount. That's a team player, right there.

Mathieu Schneider (2007-08)
65 gp, 12-27-39, +22

Look, just because we're in the process of kicking Schneider's salary off the team, that doesn't mean the guy isn't eligible for all-time consideration. I mean, he did have a quality season playing easy minutes, and even picked up a few Norris votes. In terms of skillset, Schneider might be the best on this list, especially if we're talking about shooting. However, he most likely won't have been on the Ducks for very long, and he did have a rather invisible playoff series against Dallas (his only point of the series was a meaningless goal in the last 8 seconds of G4), but will that cost him a spot on the all-time squad?

-----------------------------------
So there's my eleven candidates with only two slots to fill.

Who gets your votes? Are you in favor of short-term production (Mironov, Ozolinsh, Schneider), steady stay-at-homes (Carney, O'Donnell), long-serving serviceable d-men (Salei, Vishnevski), old-school types (Dollas, Karpa), unheralded gems (Havelid, Beauchemin), or a mix of the above? There's no wrong answers; I'm just looking for preference, really.

I don't think I've done this list as much justice as I did with the centermen, but this is just Anaheim All-Time Decision #2 (I've still got two more coming). As before, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments: which two defensemen deserve the all-time third pairing? If you want, you can also share who was a close runner-up. You don't even have to be a Ducks fan to chime in -- all are welcome.

Go Ducks.

More Number-Crunching with Scott

I'm in a bit of a rush today, but I did want to throw down a few more numbers around Scott Niedermayer's return to the lineup last year, even though he apparently doesn't need to give Brian Burke a retirement decision until July 1st now. I also made Burke's deadline the topic of this week's PuckToon, although I certainly could have drawn Scott a bit better -- in my cartoon he is being played by Adrien Brody.

Here's a table that shows the main five non-Niedermayer defensemen, and their even-strength performance before and after Scott's December debut:

Even-Strength Plus-Minus Before & After Scott Niedermayer

(click on image to enlarge)You'll note that in terms of even-strength play, inserting Scott at the top of the Anaheim blueline had a huge impact on the outscoring success of three players in particular -- Frenchie Beauchemin, Chris Pronger, and Sean O'Donnell.

For Pronger and O'Donnell, I think the improvement mostly stems from the sharing of tough minutes, no longer being the only shutdown option on the blueline. Really Scott's return enabled the team structure to go back to what worked so well for them in their 2007 cup run: a Norris defenseman covering most of the critical minutes, while a third pairing cleaned up on easy minutes.

It's a bit odd that Schneider and Huskins saw their outscoring productivity drop post-Niedermayer, but it wasn't a huge difference, and with Huskins in particular it could be attributed to additional even-strength minutes, freeing the superstar d-men to also manage the special teams minutes. While their numbers are very solid, it's important to remember that this system used to work with Huskins and Dipenta, who is roughly $5M cheaper than Schneidermayer.

I did want to focus a bit on Francois Beauchemin's play, however, who has spent nearly his entire career letting Scott cover his ass. You can see that Frenchie in particular struggled without Scott (and was redeemed upon Scott's return), and I think a lot of that stems from the bad habits that developed under Scott's tutelage. I've drawn a little schematic to the right to demonstrate this.

Normally, when a puck gets dumped behind two defensemen, it's likely a 50-50 split which defenseman will go retrieve the puck, depending on what side of the net the puck is directed. For Scott and Frenchie, though, they've developed something like a 80-20 split, where Beauchemin gets only the very close dump-ins and expects his fleet-footed partner to gather the rest. I remember watching a Scott-less Beauchemin very carefully in the opening 34 games, and to my eyes I could spot this happening to poor spoiled Frenchie -- he was so used to not retrieving pucks that he'd often leave his defensive partner with silly responsibilities that only a guy like Niedermayer could make look effortless.

I'm not blaming Beauchemin for anything, really -- if my back was always covered I'm sure I'd develop bad habits also, but that's another reason I really want Scott to return; he not only helps other defensive pairs manage their minutes better but also carries bad-habit Beauchemin into respectable results. Someday Frenchie is going to have to re-learn his puck responsibilities when paired with an average partner, but I don't want it to happen this year.

So that's a bit more on Scott's roster impact, at least at even strength. I'll close with a lame analogy, mainly designed to incorporate a crazy e-mail image that my dad forwarded to me. Scott's so valuable on the ice that putting him at the top of a lineup makes an ugly dude like Albert Einstein look like a beautiful blonde like Marilyn Monroe:

Step away from your screen to see some crazy-ass magic eye effect.
Insanity. Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Who’s responsible for this improvement?

Nashville Predators (20-18-2, 12th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (21-17-6, t-6th in west)

It’s certainly been a weird sort of year for the champion Ducks. If you wanted to overgeneralize this season, you could say the team started the year minus Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne, and suffered both offensively and defensively because of it.

Since Scott’s return, the team has certainly performed better standings-wise, but it’s clear where the improvement is kicking in—on the defensive end. In the 34 games prior to Scott’s return, the Ducks allowed 2.82 goals per game; in the 10 games since that number has dropped to 1.60. A lot of that can be attributed to the penalty kill, which allowed 41 PPGs in the first 34, and only 4 in the last 10.

However, the offensive end still remains stagnant; as a matter of fact the Ducks were scoring more goals before Niedermayer (2.38 goals per game) than since his return (2.20 goals per game). Does this mean that the team still needs a return out of Selanne (who per the OC Register has begun skating)?

On the surface, it seems to be so. I do want to caution, however, against attributing too much of improved results to the returning player. Yes, the Ducks are a better team with Niedermayer in the lineup, but if you look at the numbers, it’s not necessarily Niedermayer that seems to be driving the results.

The two tables below show the top-six defensemen before and after Niedermayer’s return. The tables show games played, even-strength (EV) minutes, EV “plus” events per 60 minutes, EV “minus” events per 60 minutes, the resulting EV goal-differential per 60 minutes, shorthanded minutes, and shorthanded goal-differential per 60 minutes.

Before Scott's return:

Player	GP	EV Min	EV Plus/hr	EV Minus/hr	EV Diff/hr	PK Min	PK Diff/hr
F. Beauchemin	34	659	+1.55	-2.55	-1.00	157	-10.32
C. Pronger	34	600	+1.80	-2.10	-0.30	175	-5.50
S. O’Donnell	34	467	+1.29	-1.80	-0.51	154	-6.23
K. Huskins	29	432	+3.06	-1.67	+1.39	60	-6.97
S. Hnidy	32	381	+1.73	-1.57	+0.16	38	-3.15
M. Schneider	19	328	+2.93	-1.65	+1.28	9	-6.65

Since Scott's return:

Player	GP	EV Min	EV Plus/hr	EV Minus/hr	EV Diff/hr	PK Min	PK Diff/hr
F. Beauchemin	10	179	+1.34	-2.35	-1.01	36	-5.07
C. Pronger	10	170	+2.11	-0.35	+1.76	42	-1.44
S. Niedermayer	10	168	+2.15	-2.87	-0.72	27	-4.42
M. Schneider	10	155	+1.94	-0.78	+1.16	12	+0.00
S. O’Donnell	10	132	+2.74	-0.46	+2.28	38	-1.56
K. Huskins	9	115	+2.61	-1.57	+1.05	4	-16.90

In terms of improvement, you have to be struck by the numbers associated with Chris Pronger and Sean O’Donnell. Both have improved by more than 2 goals-per-60 at even-strength differential and both have improved by more than 4 goals-per-60 while shorthanded. It’s a whopping improvement, more than I’d expect, especially since Scott Niedermayer isn’t really sharing minutes with either of them. And it’s not as if Scott’s stepped in and taken shutdown defensive role either; Pronger and O.D. are still facing the best the opposition has to offer.

I really don’t have a lot of answers as to what’s really changed about Pronger’s minutes, but the results are there for discussion. Is it just a matter of lockerroom accountability, or is Scott’s minute-sharing somehow making the shutdown job easier to accomplish? I’ll probably do some more of this segmented analysis going forward; one thing about this season is that it is very interesting to see how results change as the roster changes.

Prediction: In its last trip to California, Nashville lost all three games by a combined score of 12-1. Here’s hoping their west-coast affliction continues. Ducks 4, Preds 2. Goals by Pronger, Kunitz, Pahlsson, and Bertuzzi.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Who would you move to make Niederroom?

Anaheim Ducks (14-12-4, t-6th in west) at Nashville Predators (13-11-2, 11th in west)

The second guest-art installment
in the spade-in-victorhell series.
I don't have much to say about last night's game against Chicago, except (a) the Ducks won despite being outshot 42 - 22, and (b) Andy McDonald and Todd Bertuzzi went back to being invisible again. I regularly told my roommate, "Man, I can't believe we're winning this game," but whatever--I'm happy enough with the two points that I won't raise a stink. I'm guessing the same strategy won't work nearly as well in Nashville, though.

NIEDERWATCH: Here's my un-scientific listing of who's most likely to be moved to make tag room for Scotty, a list that shuffles quite regularly and isn't based on much more than my mood. I've included each player's next-year-cap figure, per NHLSCAP.com.

1. Matthieu Schneider ($5.625 M): I think logically, Schneider's paid way too much for a third-highest-paid defenseman. Even with goals in each of his last two games, I think the only reason that Schneidermayer would stay is if Burke is dead-set on icing the best blueline in NHL history, or if he's determined that Scott won't play next year and wants to pro-actively address that. As a bonus, moving Schneider might make enough tag room to sign Corey Perry to an early extension (provided Perry is willing to stay in the $4 M range).

2. Todd Marchant ($2.518 M): Even though the Ducks are forward-thin and Marchant has proved his value and versatility (especially in the last playoffs), it is a lot of salary for a guy to anchor a fourth line. Moving Marchant might involve moving a draft pick as well, though we'll see how cagey Burke can be. I'd certainly miss "Stone Hands" Marchant, as he has the highest PS2-to-Actual talent ratio on the team, but I feel that a kid like Petteri Wirtanen could play the fourth-line center role responsibly enough in limited minutes.

3. Andy McDonald ($3.333 M): Andy Mac has certainly had it rough this young season, though the dropoff in linemate talent is astronomical between Teemu Selanne last year and Mark Mowers earlier this year. Still, I don't know if to my eyes he's lost any speed or ability; he just seems to be more effective when opponents have to focus on his wingers more. Burke had better be more in tune with Teemu's mindset than I am; if Selanne is coming back, then Andy Mac drops to the bottom of this list; he was our best forward in the cup finals.

4. Francois Beauchemin ($1.650 M): Frenchie is another enigma of sorts; his goals-against rates were much better back when Scotty was covering his back. He is certainly underpaid for the amount of minutes that he plays, and thus should be fairly easy to move (in fact, I would expect some return in a Frenchie trade). Still, we shouldn't forget Frenchie's impact on the '06 playoffs; his fist-fight with Iginla and shoulder-hit on Brunette were enormous factors in advancing past Calgary and Colorado.

5. Sean O'Donnell ($1.250 M): Probably O'Donnell should be higher on this list, but I'll tell you: I think O.D. has been a tremendous team-first guy on this roster. I mean, the guy was an unrestricted free agent defenseman in a zany marketplace who had just won the Stanley Cup, and he signed back on the team for a PAY CUT. That is pretty huge in my books, and I hope that fact isn't lost on Burke. You know exactly what you are going to get on the ice with O.D.--the safest play he's capable of--but there's always a role for that kind of guy.

6. Some combination of Travis Moen ($913 K), Shane Hnidy ($718 K), Kent Huskins ($625 K), Brad May ($600 K), or George Parros ($550 K): I think dollarwise, this means Moen plus another guy. Moen (or as I call him, "the Omen") has had rough counting numbers but is still contributing defensively on the Pahlsson line. Plus he was HUGE in the playoffs, t-2nd on the team in goals and t-1st on the team in game-winners. Hnidy has been better of late, though his first instinct always seems to be to grab a guy with his free hand. The other three have all been improvements on last year's versions. There seems to be some possibility here (all these guys seem replaceable enough), but I don't think it's going to happen--it adds to the trade complexity and starts removing too many parts of an already-thin roster.

7. Todd Bertuzzi ($4.000 M): I talk trash on Bertuzzi more than most Duck fans, but given Bert's salary, I don't think there's many GMs that will easily take the guy--he'll probably cost the EDM first-rounder to move, I'd guess. But I'm not sure I'm entirely pessimistic about keeping Bertuzzi. Sure he's a floater who needs limited puck exposure, but as we saw with Penner last year, there's a way that Bertuzzi can be played effectively--essentially he'll be as good as his linemates can make him. Bert will probably look really bad on a bad team but may look really good on a good one, and if this team does take a step forward, I'm willing to stay on the Bertuzzi bet a little while longer.

So that's my list, based on zero inside sources and just my gut feel. Two things to note: (a) Burke has made his trade-timeframe public, and will not be bargaining from a position of strength. As we've seen in the case of Ilya Bryzgalov, it doesn't seem to be the case that rival GMs are in any hurry to do Burke any favors. (b) Going for Burke, though, is the fact that there isn't any real need to get any return for whichever player gets moved. Scotty (with the possibility of some Teemu) is plenty of return already. It wouldn't even be that bad if a player got on the waiver train to Phoenix.

So, just for fun, if you were Burke, which player would you look to unload? Unleash your fantasy GM skills in the comments.

Prediction: I'm not that optimistic; I'm guessing Nashville carries a lot of the play today. Still, Ducks 3, Preds 2. Goals by Platt, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Welcome Back Scotter?

Sorry, kids, but this picture/title is a bit of an older reference, before my time, even.

At any rate, word on the web is that Scotty is considering coming back for another season, though for whatever reason, he doesn’t want to go to England. Severe anglophobia aside, this would be a tremendous development for the Ducks’ hopes of repeating.

The team went a whopping 54-13-12 last year when Niedermayer, Pronger, and Beauchemin all played, and that was before the addition of Schneidermayer. Plenty more to say about this, but I'll wait until speculation becomes fact.

Retirement Threat #1: how do you replace Scott Niedermayer?

(Author’s Note: I HAVE NO NEWS IN THIS POST. I figured I’d best say that up front.)

So with Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne both threatening to retire 'on top of the world', I thought I’d spend today looking at Scott’s on-ice contribution, and deal with Teemu's in a separate post.

Over the course of the regular season and playoffs, the captain played over 2,800 minutes, nearly 400 more than the next highest Duck skater. He led Anaheim defensemen in even-strength minutes, power play minutes, and shorthanded minutes, and total scoring, as well. He was also Anaheim’s top-paid player ($6.75 M/year on a deal that has two more years on it), a Norris finalist, and the Conn Smythe winner to boot.

To help measure his on-ice contribution, though, here are the 5 defensemen signed for next year, and their combined regular-season and playoff totals from last year:

Even-Strength:

Player	GP	ES min	ES +/hr	ES –/hr	ES +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	1,803	+2.66	-2.23	+0.43
Beauchemin	91	1,749	+2.44	-2.13	+0.31
O’Donnell	100	1,621	+2.48	-1.96	+0.52
Pronger	85	1,520	+3.00	-1.54	+1.46
Huskins	54	640	+1.97	-1.88	+0.09

What’s staggering here is really the difference in productivity of Chris Pronger from pretty much everyone else (even his regular defense partner Sean O’Donnell). The best goals-for, the best goals-against, and the best differential, all while playing comparable minutes to Niedermayer. I don’t want to knock the captain’s productivity, but Scott is clearly outshined on these metrics.

Power Play:

Player	GP	PP min	PP +/hr	PP –/hr	PP +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	582	+7.94	-0.72	+7.22
Pronger	85	509	+8.25	-0.24	+8.01
Beauchemin	91	286	+6.09	-0.63	+5.46

On the power play, only three defensemen played any significant minutes, and certainly Niedermayer's presence was a huge part. One thing about Niedermayer: he's got a very below-average shot from the blueline, but made himself really useful as a high screen / rover. Again, though, Pronger is the star in terms of net production.

Penalty Kill:

Player	GP	SH min	SH +/hr	SH –/hr	SH +/–/hr
Niedermayer	100	415	+0.29	-6.65	-6.36
Beauchemin	91	385	+0.47	-6.08	-5.61
O’Donnell	100	367	+0.49	-3.93	-3.44
Pronger	85	333	+0.54	-5.23	-4.69

Note that these numbers are inclusive of 4-on-5 and 3-on-5 situations, which partially explains why Niedermayer's production looks bad here. Even so, though, his numbers pale again against Pronger's, who also was a fixture on 2-man disadvantages.

Bottom line: Even though Scott is outshined in the production metrics by Pronger, he still plays a huge role minutes-wise and leadership-wise, and his salary is quite favorable compared to other top-earning defensemen. Should Scott announce his retirement, the Ducks definitely need to figure out who their captain will be, and also find a way to replace his minutes for a pretty similar cost. Unfortunately, I really doubt this can be accomplished with one $6 - $7 M defenseman in today's high-priced market (it doesn’t buy you what it used to); this really is the main reason why I’d really prefer Scott to play out his existing contract.

A key question that still needs to be answered will be the production of defenseman Francois Beauchemin, who has played pretty much his entire 2-year NHL career with Scotty as his partner. Certainly the early play of Frenchie has been promising, but it is somewhat easy to look good when you’ve got the smoothest skater in the league leading your rushes and still covering your back.

If Niedermayer does choose to retire, though, I would guess the best way to go about replacing him would be pretty much to build a traditional blueline around the other Norris finalist, Pronger. Rather than have two defensive pairs play nearly all the minutes, the resulting defense would probably have to spread minutes to the third pairing a lot more evenly, so probably Niedermayer would be best replaced by two capable $3M defensemen, preferably not UFAs signed on July 1st, though—those signings usually signify an overcommitment.

Anyway, Scott’s decision is probably the one key thing I’m keeping my eye on this offseason—I don’t think the Ducks are in horrible trouble either way, but definitely there will have to be a huge strategy adjustment if he leaves. Based on the minutes he plays, I would say he’s a tougher hurdle to replace than Selanne, but we’ll be taking a look at that in a later post.

Ducks Draft Day: Lots of little news

Well, lots of random items to cover this Saturday, so let's get to it:

Ducks draft C Logan MacMillan with the 19th overall pick (link).
Burke traded the 16th pick to Minnesota for the 19th and 42nd. I'm as always unsure what to think about the draft: sure it's important but it's tough to measure draft day success. Good luck, kid.

Ducks re-sign D Sean O'Donnell and D Kent Huskins for two years each (link).
This is really good news, as now a majority of the blueline will be back. Both were soon-to-be cup-winning UFAs, and came back for a cheaper combined price, which is good to hear. O'Donnell, who made $1.52 M last year, took a discount and will make $1.25 M per year. Huskins, who made $450k last year, will make $600k this year and $650 the next.

Of course, this would turn out to be FANTASTIC news if Scott decided to play another year or two, because he allows the other blueliners to play less difficult minutes. I'm hoping that the re-signings of these two and Giguere might prompt him to stay.

Ducks trade C Tim Brent to Pittsburgh for C Stephen Dixon (link).
Tim Brent played 15 games for the Ducks this year, mostly in place of an injured Todd Marchant, and was on the ice for 1 goal-for and 6 goals-against.

(Added 3:30) Ducks trade F Ryan Shannon to Vancouver for W Jason King and a conditional pick (link).
Ryan Shannon played 64 games for the Ducks this year, also mostly in a 4th line setting, and was on the ice for 19 goals-for and 21 goals-against. King has played the last three years in Sweden, and signed a contract with the Iserlohn Roosters of the German League last week, so I'm unsure whether to expect him to be available this year.

And while talking about trades in general, I do expect Brian Burke to move G Ilya Bryzgalov, but I'm not sure if Duck fans should get super-excited about the return. After watching both Toskala and Vokoun get moved for draft picks and salary relief, I'm not that sure about the market for goalies (although Breezy has less salary issues). We will see what Burke manages to do.

Earl answers his mail.
And finally, just for kicks, I'll take a stab at one of the anonymous comments: what would earl do if the ducks sign kariya?

The graphic to the right was one I made back in 2003 when both Kariya and Selanne turned their backs on Anaheim and signed for severe discounts to try to win a Cup in Colorado. It remains the one reason why I can't fully apologize to Edmonton fans for stealing Pronger--the same thing had happened to us three years before.

That said, unlike most Duck fans, I have never booed Kariya. Last summer, he was #2 on my list of the 10 best players to wear the Disney duck logo, and I wouldn't really have a problem if he returned (although I get the sense that Nashville, after ditching Vokoun, Timonen, and Hartnell, are preparing to re-sign Kariya).

But I got one stipulation: Kariya, want to ditch your team and sign with a contender? Fine, I won't have a problem, provided you take a salary of $1.2 M, the same price you took in Denver. Sorry, dude. Karmic Justice.

Merry Fist-mas!

Merry Fist-mas to all, and to all a good fight!