Last year in most of the book stores I visited there was only one magazine with hockey content on the shelves all season, the NHL's 2008 Yearbook. This year I posted a few notes from the Sporting News/Street and Smith's 2008-09 NHL Preview, the NHL's 2009 Yearbook, The Hockey News 2009 Yearbook, ESPN Magazine's NHL Preview complete with Ovechkin 09 campaign platforms, McKeens Hockey 2008-09 NHL preview, and of course the definitive Wave Magazine San Jose Sharks preview.
Bottom line according to the previews is that Detroit will advance past the San Jose Sharks in the Western Conference Finals to drop the Montreal Canadiens in their 100th anniversary season. Any magazines I missed?
That's the question heading into this season. It's reasonable to say that 4/5 Pacific teams could win it (sorry Kings, but enjoy your complimentary fruit basket!). With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the three big dogs and the sweaty dark horse in the sun.
Naturally, leave your predictions and dissenting opinions in the comments.
San Jose Sharks
Most years, these media darlings are the team to beat on paper. This year? You get the feeling that people are starting to sour on the Teal force.
It's crazy just how much this team changed in the last couple years. There's still some solid youth on the team, but the parallels to those "fuck the future I want it now" Colorado Avalanche teams are pretty damning. (They even have Rob Blake) Still, that team did win two Cups before they devolved into a glorified vehicle for the annual Peter Forsberg saga.
10 of his 14 goals last year were game winners ... seriously.
The thing that makes this team so difficult to judge is that they're such a gamble: they have a coach who's wet behind the ears, a vastly different defense and it's unclear which offense will show up. Here's the questions that need to be answered:
Will the ousting of Ron Wilson reanimate the corpse previously known as Patrick Marleau?
How good is Dan Boyle, really?
Can the Cheechoo Train ride again?
Speaking of corpses, is that really Jeremy Roenick? He's still alive?
This team is a mystery wrapped in bacon.
Anaheim Ducks
After the Stompy controversies and the "will they or won't they?" retirement questions, it's mind blowing to realize that the Ducks might just be a model of stabilitythis season.
Sure, the salary cap will make things interesting and Brian Burke's heavily rumored dalliance with the Maple Leafs might crop up again. The Ducks return the same core group that dominated its way to a Stanley Cup two years ago (with a possible bonus of Bobby Ryan if they can make the money work).
Will Burke go to Toronto if the Ducks win another Cup?
A full season of Scott Niedermayer and the Finnish Flash should provide the Ducks with a fourth gear. Their biggest problem now is that they are a top heavy team, but its not crazy to wonder if this is just the beginning for Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.
From everything I've heard, J.S. Giguere's weight fluctuates worse than Oprah's from game to game (doesn't he lose about 4-6 lbs. per game?) so he might not be able to take on a Marty Brodeur-like workload. For that reason, the Ducks might not win the division but they have the best chance of any Pacific team to win the Cup this year.
There, I said it.
Dallas Stars
It's amazing how much public perception can change with a little playoff success. The Stars handed the Sharks and Ducks 4-2 losses before being manhandled by a vastly superior Detroit Red Wings team. It was a borderline magical journey for a club that lead the league in postseason frustrations.
The Stars' midcard will be vastly different this year. Niklas Hagman, Antii Miettinen, Stu Barnes and Mattias Norstrom are gone. At the same time, the Stars will enjoy a full season of Brad Richards and will ... try to enjoy a full season of Avery the unsavory.
The Stars should continue some of that good momentum, but good lord is this it for Sergei Zubov and Boucher? This injury trend isn't a surprise with Boucher but with Zubov it's getting scary.
An unhealthy Zubov makes a Pacific Division win unlikely.
Phoenix Coyotes
This year's dark horse is a canine.
(Kill me. The world will understand.)
Last year, I was all over the Stars trading for Olli Jokinen at the trade deadline. Well, he came to the Pacific ... only for the "Desert Dogs." If any player has lived through the Gretzky-Gary Bettman expansion era, it might be Jokinen with his stops with the pitiful Florida Panthers and now the Phoenix Coyotes.
Apparently, Jokinen already has a little BoC experience
A full season with Bryzgalov and Jokinen could make the Coyotes very interesting. Without Keith Ballard, their D takes a bit of a hit but they still seem to have quite a D focus under the watch of The Not So Great coach. But it must be mentioned that they are highly reliant on Jovocop, the Marian Gaborik of defensemen.
Even though the Coyotes will be interesting this year, I don't see them leapfrogging the Stars, Sharks and Ducks.
Whew! Sleek's been a busy guy lately, not only contributing to BoC's regular reporting brilliance, but doing Pacific Division previews for AOL Fanhouse as well. Today that whole stint got finished up -- my Sharks preview will run later this morning, finishing off my previewing duties there. I can't say that there's anything too brilliant in these previews (I get awfully wishy-washy when it comes to predicting things), but I did draw a cartoon for each team -- that's something, at least.
Anyways, I figured I'd link them all here, not only for convenient clicking but also just as an excuse for my recent busy streak.
So there you have it. I've managed to write all five without picking a winner of the Pacific; who do you figure has the best shot at it? Comments are open.
Apparently people don't have any better ideas. Here's Earl's take over at AOL Fanhouse, while Greg Wyshynski and Ross McKeon each have a preview available on Yahoo! Oh, and TSN unveiled their preview as well today, along with a Fantasy Outlook. Oh, and there's always time to re-read my award-winning preview from the pensblog. Want to save some time? Here's the consensus:
Yeah, nitpickers, this is the same cartoon from last year.
Happy fucking blog birthday, Pensblog! As a guy who focuses a lot on the western conference, it takes a little extra for an eastern blog to make a splash on my radar, but the Pensblog has been a force in the blogosphere for two years now. Their crass and angry style has taken the crass and angry city of Pittsburgh by storm, and there's probably not a team-focused blog out there with a bigger and meaner following. It's awesome.
Every night I fall asleep fearing three things -- getting in a pissing contest with a racehorse, getting in a racing contest with a racehorse, and getting in a photoshop war with Pensblog. They are that scary.
Anyways, just like last year, Pensblog invited 29 suckers to preview their teams, and Rudy and I managed to not get ourselves "Ron Wilson'd" from that invite list. We've been told that our previews are going up today -- BoC day at the Pensblog -- so once they are up I will add Rudy's link here and Earl's link here.
I’m pretty optimistic about this upcoming season. Despite last season’s troubles, the Kings still proved that they had a lot of young talent ready to break out. Mike Cammalleri and Alex Frolov can no longer be called "prospects" and both of them led the offense for much of last year. Anze Kopitar descended upon us with golden wings and will probably be our best player this year. Dustin Brown kept improving, slowly but surely, and should improve even more this year as he gears his game toward a more grinding, power style. Patrick O’Sullivan had a little trouble adjusting last year, but it’s going to be difficult for a young player when he realizes that his old moves don’t work in the NHL; he should thrive this year if he can play with a guy like Ladislav Nagy. Jack Johnson is in a perfect position to thrive in the NHL and will assume a larger role as the Kings diminish Rob Blake’s. Jonathan Bernier is playing with house money at this point. Those are just the young guys that are currently on the team; I haven’t even mentioned Thomas Hickey or Lauri Tukonen or Trevor Lewis or Brian Boyle. If these guys can continue to improve like they did last year, the Kings are going to be much better than most people think.
The most important thing Dean Lombardi did this off-season was improve the depth of the Kings. At this point last season, the Kings were pondering lines like O’Sullivan-Conroy-Cammalleri and Frolov-Kopitar-Willsie. We have three lines this year that are better than those two. Say what you want about Ladislav Nagy or Kyle Calder, but they are clearly better than Eric Belanger and Tom Kostopolous. I think a fundamental flaw in John Buccigross’ recent article about the Kings is that he thought guys like Nagy and Michal Handzus were going to take Cammalleri and Kopitar’s ice time. They’re not taking their ice time; their taking Scott Thornton’s and Konstantin Pushkarev’s. (Forgot he was on the team, didn’t you?) The same thing with the defense: Lubo will still get a lion’s share of the power play time, but we won’t have to rely on Matty Norstrom and Kevin Dallman on the 2nd power play unit because we have Tom Preissing and Brad Stuart.
1st Intermission:
I’m pretty pessimistic about this upcoming season. The Kings goaltending situation is even worse than could have been imagined. Dan Cloutier was obviously unhealthy and had to be sent down. Jason Labarbera, too, has been pretty bad this pre-season. I’m not sure why he's struggled, but he was supposed to be the guy who, if not great, was going to be consistently average for us. J.S. Aubin is not really worth talking about. The only guy who has inspired confidence is a 19 year-old kid who has never played a day of professional hockey. The list of NHL netminders who enjoyed success in their teens is as follows: Tom Barrasso. That’s the list. Unless Bernier becomes the 2nd coming, there’s no way the Kings can prevent a repeat of what happened last year.
The Kings have improved their depth for relatively cheap, but the question not being asked is why these players were cheap. Handzus is coming off major knee surgery. Nagy has either been great but hurt or healthy and average. Kyle Calder failed to live up to his initial hype. Brad Stuart was awful the past two years. Even Tom Preissing got benched during the Stanley Cup Finals. The signings seemed smart, but there was a reason 29 other GMs didn’t sign these guys. Even if the Kings had signed a guy like Drury for too much money, you could at least be guranteed some measure of production. The Kings have no such luxury.
During Mike Cammalleri’s arbitration hearing, Dean Lombardi talked about how Cammy had put up a lot of points on a bad team. The implication was that this was an indication of a lack of talent with the Kings rather than an abundance of talent in Cammalleri. The same argument could be applied to Kopitar or Frolov as well. (The fact that Brown did not pile up points with the amount of ice time he got scares me.) That’s the major problem with much of the King’s young talent; sure, they’ve been good on a bad team, but can they be good on a good team? I’m not sure about some of them. Last year, there was no pressure for them to perform. This year, there is.
I’m more in line with the first argument than I am with the second.Ultimately, I think the Kings are going to make the playoffs this season.For those who are still skeptical, here’s my rationale:
The Kings do not have to be one of the 8 best teams in the Western Conference; the Kings need to be one of the 3 best teams in the Pacific Division.Because of the unbalanced schedule, it’s pretty much guaranteed that there will be 3 teams from 2 conferences in the playoffs and then 2 in the other.I think the Pacific and the Northwest will get 3 each, while the Central will get 2.Of the three teams in the Pacific that get in, I think we can obviously write down San Jose and Anaheim and dismiss Phoenix.That leaves L.A. and Dallas.The two of them are opposites: Dallas is all defense and no offense (when was the last time you saw a team so dependant on defensive scoring?) while the Kings are mostly offense and no defense.Dallas has been looking like they were going to fall off a cliff for years now, and I think they finally will this season.Who is going to score on that team?I think the Kings will get just lucky enough with Kopitar and Cammalleri leading the way while the Frolov-Armstrong-Calder line will get an article written about them by December.(Hopefully Darren Eliot doesn’t write it.)
I almost changed my mind based solely on this picture.
It’s hard for me to do any predictions that involve the Kings because I can’t get my own biases out of the way.I’d be an asshole if I didn’t admit I really want the Kings to make the playoffs this year.(“You’re an asshole anyway!”“Hey!”)That being said, the Kings have the talent this year to make the playoffs.Whether they do or not is up to them.
Here’s my 100% bullshit, completely made-up guess as to how the Western Conference breaks down (Eff the East):
Detroit San Jose Vancouver Colorado Anaheim Minnesota Chicago L.A. St. Louis
So that’s how I have everything breaking down. I’m not too attached to these (though I did spend way too much time thinking about it), so feel free to eviscerate them in the comments.
2nd Intermission:
I was stumblin’ around Youtube the other day and I came across this:
That Game 3 is probably my favorite memory as a Kings fan. When Eric Belanger scored in overtime… well, people always say the birth of your child is the greatest moment of your life, but have you ever actually seen a birth? It’s disgusting. And weddings? No thanks. (Besides, my wife will probably be ugly anyway.) So yeah, that will probably be the greatest moment of my life. This team, this season, is the first time I've felt good about the Kings since that moment. Do I know if the Kings can actually make the playoffs this season? No, but I look forward to finding out. Go Kings.
There are three things about me that I don’t like people to know: I cried during Homeward Bound, I own the DiCaprio version of Romeo & Juliet, and I don’t mind Jaroslav Modry.That’s the Kings fan equivalent of saying I like to play with my own crap.It’s like a requirement for being a Kings fan: you drink too much, you make fun of the Ducks and the Sharks even though your team wears purple, and you hate Modry.I’ve never been able to.Really, I don’t understand the visceral reaction people have against him.
Kings fans did not take the Modry acquistion well.*
Modry was on the team from 1997 to 2004. He was one of our best defensemen for a couple of years (he played over 20 minutes a game in both 2003 and 2004) and was a nice balance to our two-headed monster of Aaron Miller and Matty Norstrom. He’s always been a pretty good offensive defenseman and he was our best offensive defenseman in the gap between Blake’s departure and Visnovsky’s emergence.He gets a bad rap for his defense, and he’s not really that good at it, but it’s not like he’s Souray out there or anything.Is he a good defenseman?No, probably not.Is he capable?Yeah, sure.Plus, he’s only costing us $1.2 million this year, which isn’t that bad for a defenseman who’s going to play every night.
Umm, Jaro... wrong jersey.
I think the reason people hate Jaroslav Modry is because he doesn’t fit into their pre-conceived notions of what a defenseman is.Most hockey fans love grinders, especially on defense.Guys like Jon Klemm, who are basically worthless but throw a meaningless bodycheck around every once in a while?Can’t get enough of ‘em.Guys like Modry, who are capable but are also labeled as “soft?”Worthless.I don’t really understand it.I think the reason the Sharks have been so successful in the past few years is that they have gone after defenseman who don’t really bring that physical aspect of the game but still know how to position themselves and play defense.I think Lombardi feels the same way in signing guys like Preissing and Stuart and getting Modry from Dallas.It may not be what people expect, but I think it’s what will work.
Modry will probably play with Jack Johnson this season and maybe get a little action on the power play.He’s a good person for Jack to play with; he can show him some tricks on offense while also forcing Jack to be defensively responsible (because Modry will be up most of the time; also, Modry will get beat a lot).I don’t know, maybe I’ll watch Modry this season and discover that I hate him, but right now I think he’s a solid (though not necessarily great) contributor to the team.
*Why is that when I type "Angry Fans" into Google Image Search, the 2nd picture is of a naked guy holding a horse? Come to think of it, that's the 2nd picture when you put anything into Google Image Search.
I must admit, I’m not too familiar with Michal Handzus. There are three things I know about him:
Okay, 4 things: he creeps me out.
1) He’s a good defensive center. I don’t really have anything to go on with this except for a Selke nomination back in 2000 (and Earl can tell you about how that award is bullshit), but I think it’s safe to say that Handzus is an above-average defensive forward. I mean, I could do stuff like “analysis” or “fact-checking,” but who the hell am I, Upton Sinclair? I got shit to do, like… um… eat. (Whew, almost blew my cover there. Nice save, Kelly.)
2) He was injured most of last year with a knee injury. I’m a little nervous about this, just because the Kings signed a solid defensive center coming off a knee injury to shore up their offense and that didn’t work out too well. Even worse, both Alyn McCauley and Handzus have first names that sound normal but are off by one letter; they’re like twins! Anyway, Handzus played in only 8 games last year so he might start off a little slow. Even worse, he just got a tonsillectomy, which is probably the 2nd lamest injury you can miss time for. (The first? Appendectomy. I don’t know why, it just is. Who has the list in front of them? That’s right, so shut up.) Given the Kings’ penchant for signing guys who don’t realize that they actually have to play to earn their money the past two seasons, I’m cautiously pessimistic about Handzus’ knee.
"Meemee!!!"
3) He kind of looks like Beaker from the Muppets. At least he does to me. Wouldn’t it be funny if they did that “Sounds of the Game” thing with Handzus and you could hear him calling for the puck and he was all, “Meemee!” That would be awesome.
So yeah, that’s pretty much all I got when it comes to Handzus. What do you people want from me? I’m not Earl, okay? I can’t do “analysis,” whatever the hell that is. Do you know how hard it is to write about every single Kings player? I’m pretty sure everything I wrote about Raitis Ivanans was made up. Oh well, at least I get paid handsomely… wait a minute, Wild Wing isn’t on the $50 dollar bill! Damn you, Sleek!!!
***
The Kings are unveiling a new mascot this Friday at Frozen Fury. They haven't given out a picture of him yet but they have revealed his name: Bailey, named after former scout Ace Bailey. I think that's pretty cool. They also gave out his jersey number: 72, after the average temperature in Los Angeles. I think that's pretty cool too. I don't know why some people get bent out of shape about the Kings having a mascot; he won't distract from the game too much and kids will like him. (I always think it's funny when people talk about the tradition of sports. It's for fun people, calm the fuck down!) Welcome, Bailey; I already like you more than Brian Willsie.
According to Matt Kredell over at Inside the Kings, the word around camp is that Brian Willsie has been the most improved player there.I assume this means that he was able to tie his skates without shitting himself.I despise Brian Willsie.There is no one in the world who could like Brian Willsie except for maybe his mom, and even she probably thinks he should just pass the puck instead of shooting so damn much.Where the fuck does he get off shooting 131 times, anyway?(That’s 8th on the team.) I'm going to preemptively sue him if he keeps this shit up for the years he's taking off my life. I don’t even know why he thinks he has a good shot; it's so bad he couldn’t score on Cloutier.(Zing… oh wait.)
Nice scoring oppurtunity, jackass.
I give Scott Thornton a lot of shit but at least he’s old and is a cool guy off the ice.Willsie is supposedly in his prime and steals people’s organs in his spare time.*I loathe you, Brian Willsie.If you were to get hurt and miss all season, I wouldn’t be happy but… wait, I guess I would. Sorry, Jesus.
Well, now that camp is halfway done and it’s become apparent that Niedermayer or Selanne have no imminent plans to rejoin the team, I think I can finally sit down and start writing up a season preview. Previewing this Anaheim team is still a bag of questions, however, as I don’t really know how forward lines or defensive pairs will be laid out, but in any case a good first step is to determine precisely what’s missing from last year. Essentially, this can be boiled down to three significant players and their contributions: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, and Scott Niedermayer. These three combined for 103 goals over 103 games (regular season plus playoffs), but let’s delve in a bit to see where those goals really came from.
To study this, I am going to compare Selanne & Penner’s output to the results of the rest of the Anaheim forwards. Then I will compare Niedermayer’s output to the results of the rest of the defensemen. Finally, I will look at all three players’ results compared to the rest of the team.
Note that this strictly is dealing with on-ice productivity, ignoring such factors as experience, leadership, salary, or popularity. I will also be talking a bit about quality of minutes based on Behind the Net’s quality of teammate and quality of opposition metrics, which basically provide a context for the ice time based on the other players on the ice.
EVEN STRENGTH
Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 15 / 676, Opposition ranking: 566 / 676 Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 104 / 676, Opposition ranking: 572 / 676 Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 486 / 676, Opposition ranking: 132 / 676
Player
ES TOI
ES G
ES A
ES Pts
ES Plus
ES Minus
Teemu Selanne
1,364
28
27
55
+72
–42
Dustin Penner
1,125
23
13
36
+48
–44
Rest of forwards
11,339
125
185
310
+478
–386
Selanne / Penner Pct.
18%
29%
18%
23%
20%
19%
Scott Niedermayer
1,803
8
35
43
+80
–67
Rest of defense
7,593
17
73
90
+320
–253
Niedermayer Pct.
19%
32%
32%
32%
20%
21%
All three players
4,292
59
75
134
+200
–155
Rest of team
18,932
142
258
400
+798
–639
Three Player Pct.
18%
29%
23%
25%
20%
20%
Takeaways: Both Selanne and Penner had relatively easy ice time, playing mostly with teammates that produced at even strength and against opponents that did not. Using that icetime, Selanne and Penner were able to score 29% of Anaheim forwards’ goals and 23% of the points, using 18% of the available ice time. Those are lofty numbers, but there is plenty of scoring ice time available to help replace that production.
Niedermayer, on the other hand, played much more difficult even-strength shifts, and despite this was able to score 32% of Anaheim defensemen’s goals and points using 19% of the available ice time. These are going to be much more difficult points to replace at even-strength, as it will have to be done with some defensive-oriented teammates and against some lofty competition.
Overall, the three players produced 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 25% of Anaheim’s even-strength points.
POWER PLAY
Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 4 / 428, Opposition ranking: 406 / 428 Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 23 / 428, Opposition ranking: 353 / 428 Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 8 / 428, Opposition ranking: 356 / 428 (note that these rankings are based on 5-on-4 only)
Player
PP TOI
PP G
PP A
PP Pts
PP Plus
PP Minus
Teemu Selanne
479
25
29
54
+68
–3
Dustin Penner
315
9
8
17
+37
–3
Rest of forwards
1,604
43
83
126
+215
–17
Selanne / Penner Pct.
33%
44%
31%
36%
33%
26%
Scott Niedermayer
582
10
27
37
+77
–7
Rest of defense
982
18
56
74
+125
–6
Niedermayer Pct.
37%
36%
33%
33%
38%
54%
All three players
1,376
44
64
108
+182
–13
Rest of team
2,586
61
139
200
+340
–23
Three Player Pct.
35%
42%
32%
35%
35%
36%
Takeaways: By the end of the playoffs, Selanne, Penner, and Niedermayer made up 3/5 of the Ducks’ top power play unit. And even though the Ducks’ PP sputtered towards the end of the playoffs, it still was one of the best performing units throughout all of last year.
Because of the PP dominance, you can see that all three players have very easy-looking quality of icetime, though I should caution that the Teammate ranking is largely based on playing with each other, something that replacement players will not have the benefit of. Still, the players who will need to replace this offense will be given the opportunity to play with the best available teammates, so I’m not sure how these metrics will be affected.
Power play results are a pretty tricky concept, especially when overhauling most of a top unit. It’s tough to get a handle on how chemistry, positions, or roles will change. Selanne in particular appears the most difficult to replace, as his 25 regular season power play goals led the entire league.
One strange factor to note, though: despite the lofty numbers, this trio of players only combined for one postseason power play goal. I guess the encouraging thing is that the Ducks were still able to win despite the special teams dropoff.
PENALTY KILL
(Both Selanne and Penner played less than 10 minutes of PK time, so they are exempted.)
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 160 / 395, Opposition ranking: 68 / 395 (note that these rankings are based on 4-on-5 only)
Player
SH TOI
SH G
SH A
SH Pts
SH Plus
SH Minus
Scott Niedermayer
415
0
0
0
+2
–46
Rest of defense
1,271
0
4
4
+10
–106
Niedermayer Pct.
25%
0%
0%
0%
17%
25%
Takeaways: This is why Scott Niedermayer is amazing. Alongside his impressive even-strength and power play assignments, he also threw in quite a bit of shorthanded play as well. His results don’t look terribly spectacular, but considering his difficulty of 4-on-5 minutes and his regular spot on 2-man disadvantages, it is significant time that will need to be replaced as well.
THE BOTTOM LINE
These three players represent 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 42% of Anaheim’s power play goals, and all told represent one full goal-scored per game. That said, there is some pretty attractive ice time available to help offset these losses. With this in mind, let’s take a quick glance at the two main replacements that were brought in this summer:
Mathieu Schneider: Schneider is a pretty optimal replacement for Scott Niedermayer’s even-strength and power play production, I think. He certainly won’t have the versatility and endurance to replace all of Niedermayer’s ice time, but if Scott’s penalty kill can be absorbed by other defensemen (Shane Hnidy or Sean O’Donnell, perhaps), then I think the Ducks can avoid a huge dropoff in their blueline production.
Todd Bertuzzi: This is where things get complicated. In a good scenario, Bertuzzi could pick up Selanne’s slack on the top line; in a bad scenario, Bertuzzi is only good enough to pick up Penner’s slack on the second line. But for sure, he will not be able to replace both of them, and whichever one’s offense he cannot replace will have to be offset from within the organization (a tall order, especially if it’s Selanne’s production). Bertuzzi certainly has upside that could possibly replace Selanne, but it’s tough to know for sure until he sees some regular ice time.
Anyway, it’s clear looking at the players leaving and the replacements that Anaheim (in the absence of any future roster moves) is due for a drop-off; there’s just not enough talent coming back to replace the talent that is leaving. Of course, all this gets thrown out the window should either Selanne or Niedermayer decide to pick up the skates and start playing again, but in their absence, how much will the offense suffer? And how much will that affect results?
I don’t have a solid idea of how this season will turn out for Anaheim’s title defense, but this post gives an idea of what the on-ice obstacles will be. It certainly promises to be a revealing year for Anaheim, though, and while I can’t predict it very well, I’m still looking forward to it with eagerness.
I am hereby declaring a moratorium on all King’s goaltending talk until the season begins. Yes, everyone knows Cloutier sucked last year. Yes, everyone knows the Kings didn’t bring in a goaltender during the off-season. (Who the hell were they supposed to bring in anyway? The Sharks probably wouldn’t have sent Toskala to L.A. and Manny Fernandez isn’t any better than what we have now. Please, tell me.) Let’s just shut up about it until we know if it’s actually something to be concerned about.
That save was unproven.
The biggest problem I have with the articles (here’s the latest one) that claim that the Kings are doomed because of their goaltending is that they just completely dismiss Jason Labarbera. He’s not some unproven 21 year-old kid; he’s 27 and played well in his first NHL action two years ago before something happened with his personal life that caused him to miss about a month of the season. He’s won the Baz Bastien award (the AHL’s Vezina) twice and was completely dominant down there last year. He would have been starting for the Kings by November last year if they had been able to call him up. I would be shocked if Labarbera has a save percentage less than .905 at the end of the season. He’s the kind of guy that will start off playing well and then the same idiots who wrote that the Kings were doomed will write new articles talking about how he came out of nowhere.
UNPROVEN UNPROVEN UNPROVEN
I know that I probably get more annoyed than most because I read every single article that comes out about the Kings, but seriously people, it takes 15 seconds to type “Jason Labarbera” into Google and find his stats on Hockeydb.com or something. If Labarbera can play like he did two years ago (when he had a 2.89 GAA and a .900 Sv. %), then I think we’ll be okay. Not great, but okay. Until the situation changes, why don’t we all just take a deep breath.
***
Also, Eklund thinks the Kings have a shot at signing Selanne. I don't even know what to say to that.
I am conflicted about Dustin Brown. Intellectually, I think he doesn't deserve a top forward position because his game is so one-dimensional; emotionally, I love him because that one dimension is so awesome. I got tired of the two parts of my psyche constantly bickering about him so I told them to decide the issue once and for all. Here's the transcript of that debate:
Intellectual Rudy
Intellectual Rudy: My dear boy, I’m sorry, but there is just no way Dustin Brown is anything above a replacement level player at this stage in his development.He doesn’t move without the puck well, is constantly out of position on defense, and can’t-
Emotional Rudy
Emotional Rudy: -BOOOO!!!.I don’t want to hear your “facts,” College Boy.Dustin Brown is fuckin’ awesome.Remember that one hit against Joe Thornton?* He was all like, “Boom, Bitch!”Hahahaha… wait, what was I talking about?
IR: Yes, but the hit in question was after Thornton had completed his pass and therefore had little effect on the game.Most of Brown’s hits are like that: visually stunning, but ultimately negligible in value.
ER: Yeah, but… boom!Hahaha!
IR: I fail to see the point in your “argument.”(*Chuckles, stirs brandy)
ER: Yeah, well, I fail to see the point in your face!(*Guffaws, pounds beer)
IR: Why, that doesn’t even make-
ER: -anyway, fuck you.Brown is way cooler than you.Besides, he’s only 23, and most power forwards take longer to develop in the NHL.
IR: Why, yes, that’s true…
ER: Plus, did you hear that last night Brown destroyed Andy McDonald and then kicked Sean O’Donnell’s ass when O’Donnell tried to stand up for his teammate?
IR:No, I hadn’t heard that.That’s pretty… awesome.Perhaps you’re right, my friend.I guess I underestimated you.
Well, despite my offseason commitment to avoid all sorts of season previews until there was definitive news on the retirement front, I'm a guy who can't say no to Pensblog. They've been running a fantastic series all September where different bloggers contribute team previews for the Pensblog readers, and both Rudy and I got hit up to preview the Kings and Ducks.
You can check out Rudy's piece here and my Duck preview here, and can scroll around the September archives to see what more teams have been up to this summer. And someday soon, I'm guessing, I'll get around to doing a BoC preview of what to expect out of a Ducks squad without Scott or Teemu. Enjoy!
I don’t really like Derek Armstrong that much. He’s not really that good, he has stupid hair, and he’s old. I know it’s not entirely rational; he had a pretty good season last year and he’s only getting paid about a mil and a half this year and the next, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he’s not going to lead the team to glory. There's two rules that I live my life by: you don’t win friends with salad, and you don’t win Cups with Armstrong. I guess he's Toby to my Michael Scott: my hatred of him is probably a reflection of my own neuroses more than anything else.
If Derek Armstrong were food, he'd be a hot dog.
This year, though, I'm actually glad Armstrong is on the team. Last year, the Kings had 2 offensive lines, a “stopper” line (at least they were supposed to be), and a goon/shitty line. Armstrong didn’t fit because he wasn’t good enough to be on the top line (even though he was) and he gets paid a little too much to play on the 4th line. This year the Kings should be rolling three offensive lines, and I actually think Armstrong would fit perfectly as our third center. They wouldn’t play against the other team’s top line (that would be whatever line Handzus is on, I’d imagine), so the opportunity to get a couple of cheap goals is pretty good. I wouldn’t expect him to match last season’s totals, but something north of 30 points is reasonable.
"I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be."
I wrote in my very first post that I loathed Derek Armstrong, but I was admittedly being a little over-the-top in order to make an impression. (I ended up beating out Earl’s apathy in that he didn’t have the energy to find someone else; take that, apathy!) I’m not partial to Armstrong, but I guess he has his niche. He's not that important to the team anymore and I'd kind of prefer we kept it that way. As long as he doesn’t have to do anything more than chip in, I guess I’m happy with him on our team. I mean, it could be worse: we could have Jeremy Roenick again.
Gutteral Noise That Best Describes His Season: Argh.
(I’m going to do my best to be rational and calm about this. Deep breath…)
Dan Cloutier was not good last year. In fact, some of the more hot-headed among us might describe him as a “miserable sac that deserves to die.” (Easy…) He had terrible positioning, he couldn’t get down into a butterfly in less than 3 seconds (he looked like a 70 year-old trying to do pilates), and he basically ruined my life because he sucks and is probably a pedophile. (Count to ten…1, 2, 3…) He finally ended his season in the end of December with a hip injury brought about by extreme shame BUT NOT BEFORE HE RUINED THE ENTIRE SEASON, LEARN HOW TO STOP THE PUCK YOU MISERABLE BASTARD GOD DAMMIT I WANT TO PUNT YOU! (Okay, I need to go take a walk and pet a dog or something. I’ll be right back.)
Jesus, he doesn't even know where the net is...
Okay, I’m better now. Despite Cloutier’s… lackluster season, I still have some hope for this year. The Kings were 29th in save percentage last season, 26th in penalty kills, and 27th in total goals against. That’s not good. However, the defense is greatly improved this season and if the Kings can get even adequate goaltending, they’re looking at a significant improvement in team defense. If it’s Cloutier, then great. If it’s LaBarbera, then that’s cool too. If it’s neither…well, then were probably screwed.
Cloutier had a bad year and I doubt he’s happy about it. By all accounts he’s a good guy and seems like he wants to help the team. I can’t help what other Kings’ fans do, but I am personally going to give him a pass for last season. I’m feeling optimistic; maybe he was injured all last year and this year he’ll play like he has in the past (2.8 GAA, .9 SV%). If he played like he did last year, though, then I’m all for giving him a blanket party. I’ll bring the soap.
Like most Kings fans, I was pretty bummed when George Parros lost his job to Raitis Ivanans last year. I had grown to love our Princeton pugilist over the previous season in spite of his ineptitude and lack of balance and I doubted some Latvian could possibly replace him. I soon forgot all about Parros, though, when I saw this picture:
Dear God, is that his bicep???
I grew to appreciate Ivanans’ “skills” more and more as the season went on, and I am ultimately glad Parros is gone. There are 3 main reasons I think Ivanans is better than Parros:
1) Ivanans is a better fighter. Parros falls too much. I think that’s something everyone can agree on. Every Parros fight you’ll see will go as follows: Parros throws the other guy around, misses a punch and then falls down. Ivanans, on the other hand, is incredibly strong on his skates. (I think it’s because he’s 6’3” and weighs like 600 pounds.) The two fought once last season; it would have been a good fight, but Parros kept falling down. He’s like a grizzly bear trying to play hockey out there.
2) Ivanans is better at the sport of hockey. Of course, that’s like saying that he’s better looking than a platypus; well, yeah, everyone is. Parros trying to play hockey is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve ever seen. Last year, Parros had 1 goal in 32 games, and I’m pretty sure he was trying to punch someone at the time. Shouldn’t you accidentally get an assist in 32 games? I mean, he got outscored by J.S. Giguere! Ivanans is not a good hockey player, but he isn’t that slow and he can do some damage in front of the net. He had 8 points in 64 games; not good, but better than Parros.
You look ridiculous.
3) Ivanans is scarier. Parros is awesome, but I don’t think anyone is afraid of him. (Well, I guess Chaetophobics would be.) He’s an Ivy League grad with a ridiculous moustache; he’s not scary, he’s a foil from Revenge of the Nerds. Raitis Ivanans is from Latvia, and if my American education has taught me anything, it’s that people from Latvia are bloodthirsty monsters. The guy probably ate shoes growing up, you think he’s above gouging an eye? Look into his eyes when he’s out on the ice. I did once and I found out how I was going to die. (I now avoid the proctologist at all costs. I’m not really comfortable talking about it, actually.)
Ivanans, spotting a particularly tasty shoe.
Ivanans will probably play a little less than he did last year, but I still see him getting about 40 games and a bushel of penalty minutes. He and Scott Thornton are our only real fighting threats out there now and they’re going to have to protect the Kings’ best players from the barbarian horde over there in Anaheim. Parros is cool, but he’s ultimately just a gimmick; I’m happy with our enforcer.
You know how every once in a while a friend of yours will decide to grow a moustache?You think it's a terrible idea but you can't really say anything because you know that you'll eventually try to grow one too. Then it'll start to get all straggly but your buddy will think that if he just lets it grow out a little it'll be better, but it doesn't and then he finally just has to shave it off?That’s Ladislav Nagy.Other NHL moustaches includeDean McAmmond, Brian Smolinski, and Mike Comrie, to name a few.
I swear, if I let it grow a little bit...
So far Nagy has been with the Blues, the Coyotes and the Stars (briefly).As far as I can tell, they ultimately decided that he didn’t look good on them and shaved him off.Now it’s the King’s turn.Nagy’s only signed on for this season (albeit a little overpaid at $3.75 mil) and hopefully he will be a positive at the end of the season. What I’m afraid of is that he’ll show just enough to warrant another contract when I don’t really see him ever reaching his potential.
I get the feeling Nagy will end up with 50 points; either he’ll play 80 games and be relatively lackluster, or he’ll play great for 50 games and then get hurt.That’s the problem with guys like him (and also the problem with moustaches): they never look quite as good in reality as they do on paper.
Last Season: 20 G, 41 A, 24 PIM, -12, 20:31 Avg. TOI
Word That Best Describes His Season: Euphoric.
Kop-i-tar! Kop-i-tar!
Anze Kopitar is a personal hero of mine.He’s one of the craziest players I’ve ever seen; he does something at least once a game that I never would have expected.The other guys that do that, off the top of my head?Joe Thornton, Scott Niedermayer, Alexander Ovechkin, Pavel Datsyuk.Now, I’m not by any means implying that Kopitar is as good as any of those players, but they’re all alike in that they are incredibly unique.A guy like Chris Drury will go to work and get his points, but he doesn’t really inspire you.He doesn’t make you say, “Holy fuck!”Seeing guys like Thornton or Ovechkin or Kopitar play is like going to church for me.I mean, watch this play:
I don’t know about you, but I’m inspired.And a little aroused. (Also, I love Jimmy when he gets excited.)
All that being said, I’m a little worried about Kopitar going into this season.He had such an amazing season last year that I think people may be expecting a little much from him.Kopitar was aided last season by the fact that he was on the 2nd line, meaning that he did not have to deal with the opposing team’s best defensive pairing.Teams began focusing on him later in the season, but he got hurt so we never really go to see those effects.I’m very interested in seeing how he reacts to that.
Of course, that may not affect him that much because of the way he plays.Kopitar did not necessarily make his linemates better (Brown played with him all year and only had 46 points).Instead, he utilized his defensemen to score goals.Going up against a guy like Niedermayer won’t really bother him; it’s the guys like Pahlsson, who get back and cover the trailing defensemen, who will give him trouble.
I don’t really have a solid reason for my pessimism of Kopitar; maybe it’s just a backlash against everyone else’s unceasing optimism.I mean, I hope he does well.I guess I’m just worried because there’s really no way of knowing what to expect of him until we know what line he’s playing on.If he does struggle, though, then I hope people will give him a break; despite appearances, he’s only human.
