Ducks Gameday—Burke Week #2: Let's get critical!

Washington Capitals (10-4-3, 4th in east) at Anaheim Ducks (10-7-2, t-4th in west)
NHL's other poster child is in town.

Welcome to the second installment of Brian Burke Week, as I ponder back on the Anaheim yester-legacy of the mouthy one. Yesterday I made a case for three moves that I think Burke gets too much flak for; today it's time for Part II: Criticizing three Burke moves that I don't think get enough flak.

A few things (1) I'm not going to include the Todd Bertuzzi signing; that one's so obviously bad that I don't know if it's worth discussing. Just know that my list has these three things plus signing Todd Bertuzzi. I'm still not passing judgment on Brendan Morrison, either (he gets a free pass for a while because two knowledgeable Canucks fans I talked to were shocked that B-Mo was even playing already). (2) I am not saying that any of these moves are guaranteed to fail -- there's still judgment to be made on all of them. It's just that we should keep all these things in mind when remembering Brian Burke. (3) I am not talking about his draft record until later this week.

1. The J.S. Giguere Contract

Sleek's initial reaction: Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

Now don't get me wrong; I'm quite a fan of J.S. Giguere, and he's still going to be my #1 goalie whenever I get around to posting Anaheim's All-Time Team (a shout-out to my fellow slackers!). But still, not a week goes by that I don't worry about that no movement contract -- $6 million against the cap for two years beyond this one. Now I fully understand why Giguere earned the raise, coming off a Stanley Cup and all, and I have to guess he turned down bigger money to stay in Anaheim. And I know that there's good reasons for the no-movement clause (Burke looked good there because Giguere's newborn child was under local medical care). But still, we're four years into this salary cap and I'm still unsure what the value of goaltenders really should be -- it's not just a question of value on the ice (demand), but also a function of the players available that can do it (supply). And for a team that's invested so heavily in its blueline, was a $6 M goaltender even that necessary?

For the record, I was very happy with Giguere's play last year; I thought he certainly was a $6M goaltender, or at least close enough, but that's the thing -- almost at best, this contract works out. If Giguere becomes average or worse (coughTurco!cough), that can quickly become a handicap, especially for a netminder's contract. If good goalie contracts have to be given away, then bad goalie contracts have to be swallowed. Also, the contract probably means that Jonas Hiller will be goaltending elsewhere in the coming years. One really has to ask the question, though -- if the Ducks really had cheaper alternatives in Ilya Bryzgalov and Jonas Hiller that could sit behind the "best blueline in history", should Burke have let Giguere sign elsewhere the summer after the cup win? Could he have used an extra couple million on his forwards?

I'm honestly not sure here -- there's certainly a playoff monster in J.S. Giguere that I've never seen anything like, and if that ever shows itself again, Brian Burke will be a god for the contract. I really only bring it up because it's a pretty big risk, especially if a team like Detroit can spend significantly less on its netminding and more on its skill players. I probably would have preferred a shorter contract (the Ducks' two most successful postseasons have come in J.S. Giguere's last two contract years, I think). We shall see how we feel about it later; it's all up to Giguere now.

2. Buying Out Todd Bertuzzi's Contract

Sleek's initial take: I didn't say anything useful on this one. But doesn't it look like Todd Bertuzzi is telling some fans to "suck on this"?

Yeah, I know I wasn't going to bring up the Bertuzzi signing, but this is a different matter entirely -- once that contract was signed and a year in, should Burke have bought it out? For those not tuned in to cap math, basically what it amounts to is instead of paying Bertuzzi $4M this year, the Ducks will pay him $1.33M this year and next to not play for them, plus of course paying some player to fill in on a top-six role (Brendan Morrison, give or take).

Now again, I don't want to be misunderstood here -- I am thrilled that the Ducks are playing without Bertuzzi. It's so nice to know that everyone backchecks again, or at least pretends to. And while Morrison has been an offensive letdown early, I'd still take him over Bert anytime. But still, I'm not sure I like that Burke went the buyout route -- it's always struck me that buyouts are what rich teams do, and SoCal's Anaheim is not one of those teams. Burke has effectively spent some of next year's money on a player not in a Duck uniform, and that sort of future-spending should be off-limits for a departing GM.

I really expected the Ducks to suck it up and carry Bertuzzi through his contract year, and I'm not sure it would have been that terrible. Part of what hurt the Ducks last spring, in my opinion, was that they had to carry around both Bertuzzi and Weight among their top six, and couldn't even play them together effectively -- neither guy wanted to shoot the puck or skate, and they were essentially passengers. With Weight departed and Bertuzzi finding a potential center in Ryan Carter (who made Bertuzzi stomachable by backchecking for two), I thought that the Ducks could carry one passenger on a scoring line and just not worry about the sunk cost. I reasoned that a one-year $4M gamble was more stomachable than the original two year gamble -- plus it's a contract year, why not?

Again, we shall see. It may turn out that I'm way wrong on this, and the $1.33M pre-spent next year doesn't impact next year's team much at all. Or perhaps Brendan Morrison could awaken and the Ducks could roll four dangerous lines, and I'll gladly rescind. But still, I probably would have just sucked it up and hid Bertuzzi in the lineup, or found another way to be rid of him (his contract, theoretically, gets more tradeable by the day). Buyouts probably shouldn't have been an option.

3. Becoming a Salary Cap Ceiling Team

This all is related to the notion that not that long ago, the Ducks were an incredibly cheap team. Remember the days when the top line of Kunitz-McDonald-Selanne was playing for about $2.5 million total and the Ducks were millions away from the cap ceiling? Of courses, raises had to happen, especially with the cup win, and I certainly do support most of Burke's maneuvering around Niedemayer and Selanne's semi-retirements. Still, as a result of all that reactionary GMing was that the Ducks quickly became a cap-ceiling team.

The sweet irony, of course, is that they have no business whatsoever being a cap-ceiling team. Playing in Southern California is a double-edged sword, revenue-wise (note: best I understand). For one, there's a pretty tepid fanbase -- ticket prices must remain low enough to keep fans coming. But also, because there are so many people in Southern California, neither the Ducks or Kings can ever collect on revenue sharing, even if needed. That's not a huge deal, but it does mean that on paper, the Ducks should be more near the salary midpoint than the ceiling. Burke got to spend up to the ceiling, but the real question is: What will Bob Murray be allowed to spend?

That's why the $1.33 M to Bertuzzi next year might not matter -- it prevents Anaheim from approaching the ceiling but that's probably going to happen anyway. Should Selanne for some reason retire, his unpaid salary would count against the cap, too, but that might be unspent cushion also. Overall, I'm not too worried -- I do mostly like the contracts that Burke has set up for next year -- Murray may fill in some spots cheap, but I think there's plenty of talent to work around. But it should be understood, Ducks fans and Burke fans -- there will be some natural letdown once payroll returns to a more rational level. To tell you the truth, I'm looking forward to those middling-spending ways -- it's only been one year, but serious cap math makes my head hurt; I'm much more comfortable "sort of" knowing what players' salaries are (you know, without having to know how many days they spend in Bakersfield).

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So that's Part II -- sorry it got so long-winded. Feel free to agree, disagree, add your Burke criticisms, or insert your own randomness in the comments. Part III is more positive, possibly tomorrow: What we can all learn from Burke the GM.

Prediction: As for this game tonight, oh yeah, some guy named Ovechkin's coming to town. I do feel obligated to report that I was in Anaheim to see Ovechkin's first career hat trick, so just to avoid any suspicion I'm staying home tonight. Anyways, visit your Japers Rink for all things Cap-related (Capitals, not salary cap). Ducks 4, Caps 3, Anaheim channels the spirit of Joffrey Lupul and puts four pucks past Jose Theodore. Goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Festerling.

Go Ducks.

Ducks-Sharks opening night photos

I was in the basement for most of the second and third period, but here are a couple photos of the Sharks 4-1 win over the Anaheim Ducks on opening night. If you want to try out the new NHL Gamecenter this weekend, all of the games broadcast during the NHL's opening weekend are free.

Random Pacific Questions: Who Has the Best Goalie?

He looks like the dog at the end of those Honda Element commercials. "Hey, what's going on back there?" ...I'm not good at captions.

The Kings, right? No? Okay, someone else then.

Marty Turco- 62 GP, 32 wins, 24.9 shots/game, 2.31 GAA, .909 SV%

Ilya Bryzgalov- 64 GP, 38 wins, 28.6 shots/game, 2.44 GAA, .920 SV%

Jean-Sebastien Giguere- 58 GP, 35 wins, 26 shots/game, 2.12 GAA, .922 SV%

Evgeni Nabokov- 77 GP, 46 wins, 23.4 shots/game, 2.14 GAA, .910 SV%


I'd put it Bryzgalov-Giguere-Nabokov-Turco, but that's just me. Giguere has the best numbers but he didn't play nearly as much as the others, while Nabokov has relatively weak numbers but played a ton. I didn't realize Turco had a subpar season (by his standards) last year, but then he picked it up in the post-season while Giguere faltered. Say it with me, folks: clutch doesn't exist.

I'll be very interested to see how JS Giguere, Evgeni Nabokov and Marty Turco react to next season. All three are getting into their 30's all three have carried their teams the last few years. The Ducks are in pretty good shape if Giguere misses more time next year because Jonas Hiller is a bad man, but the other two have question marks behind their starters. I imagine Nabby will take a few more games off as Dmitri Patzold and Thomas Greiss mature and it'll work because their San Jose goaltenders, but the Stars don't really have anyone currently with the team or in the pipeline to fill Turco's shoes. Could this be the year those three start to fall off? God I hope so.

The Red Wings’ Biggest Rival: the Ducks? Here’s Five Reasons Why…

The Chief over at Abel to Yzerman has created a bit of a project to pass the summer dead time, trying to categorically determine who really represents Detroit’s best current rival. He starts his study with the Colorado Avalanche, the first of ten candidates, and scores them in six categories: Quality of Team, Hate Factor, Past Playoff Adventures, Blogger Quality, Regular Season Sadness Factor, and Miscellaneous. It’s a pretty decent set of criteria, and aside from Blogger Quality (Ducks bloggers are a bit shorthanded), Anaheim figures to score highly across the board.

Still, I think it’s worth writing up a case for the Ducks, though I should take a moment and clarify: in this post I am writing about the hatred of Red Wings fans, not who Ducks fans hate. Detroit’s rival search is much different from Anaheim’s, in that the Wings have been alone in the Central Division for so long that they need to their sights elsewhere. Go see Dan Wood for the Ducks rivalry question (bonus: my answer is in the first comment there)—we’ve still got plenty of options in the Pacific Division, with Detroit and Edmonton thrown in for fun.

Anyway, as promised, here's five reason why Wings fans should hate the web-footed ones, Five Guys Who Eliminated Detroit in their Last Two Playoff Meetings. Not many active NHLers can boast about eliminating the Red Wings in their last two tries, I think, and while this is by no means a complete list, I don’t think that it would get much longer with more research. It's a rare achievement, as Detroit has a 26-9 series record since the '94 lockout. Here's some Wing-killers, though:

1) J.S. Giguere: Really, this conversation should start and end with Jiggy and his 2003 upset sweep, but it’s worth talking about his 2007 series as well. In both series Giguere made just enough saves to win, but aside from that these series were quite different. Let’s take a look:

2003: I can’t stress enough how awesome the 2003 Wings were—hell, just look at their 12 forwards that postseason: Yzerman, Shanahan, Fedorov, Hull, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Robitaille, Larionov, Maltby, Draper, and McCarty. Heck, if they find a place for the Grind Line in the HHOF, this could end up being a list of eleven hall of famers plus Holmstrom. Sure enough, the Wings dominated play, outshooting the Mighty Ducks 171-120 in four-plus games (including a triple-OT and a single-OT). And yet, with all those snipers taking all those shots, they managed to score only six goals. Six. Goals. Giguere murdered in his playoff debut, sweeping the defending champs, which not only exorcised Anaheim’s playoff demons from the past (the Ducks were a combined 0-8 against Detroit in their first two postseasons), but also started a Cinderella run to the seventh game of the cup finals. And as impressive as Giguere’s later sweep of the Wild was (4 games, 1 GA), I really have to say that Minnesota represents his second-most impressive series of 2003. Giguere finished Round One with three first stars of the game and one second star. How sick is that?

2007: This was a different story completely, as the '07 Ducks were a much more formidable team in front of their netminder. Long gone were the days of getting murdered on the shot board, as were the days when Giguere had to be the unreal difference-maker. Still, the Red Wings were the top seed in the west, and were dominant especially on home ice and on special teams. Indeed, this was more a Goliath vs. Goliath battle than anything that had happened in 2003.

Giguere ended up with more saves in the four-game 2003 sweep than he made in the six-game 2007 win, and his save percentage wasn’t even in the same stratosphere (2003: .965, 2007: .908), but one thing that J.S. was able to duplicate against the Winged Wheel: overtime perfection. Combined, Giguere went to OT against the Wings four times, and four times he came away a winner. 46 Detroit OT shots. 46 Giguere OT saves.

2) Sammy Pahlsson: Another member of the 2003 and 2007 squads, Pahlsson remains the longest-serving Duck (his Anaheim debut was November 24, 2000, one day before Giguere’s) and of course has been my favorite player since well before this blog started. You want offense? Go buy a Selanne jersey. You want flash? Getzlaf is your guy. You want hard work, defensive positioning, and attention to detail? Welcome to the Pahlsson Party.

2003: In the first cup run, Pahlsson centered a line with 19-year-veteran Steve “Stumpy” Thomas and 19-year-old Stan “Cheesy” Chistov, which would prove to be a great source for secondary scoring throughout that playoff year. The Sammy line was a huge boost in the Detroit series, as that trio contributed 4 of Anaheim’s 10 goals scored in the series (including a really cheesy Cheesy goal in G3).

2007: By this time Sammy was the unquestioned shutdown center for the Ducks, on a “Nothing" Line with Travis Moen and Rob Niedermayer. It was a banner year for Pahlsson, who probably got robbed of both a Smythe and a Selke within weeks of each other, but as usual put up zero fuss. Against Detroit, he worked the most difficult minutes available against Zetterberg and Datsyuk, and even got the two split up in an attempt to escape the Swedish Shadow.

In each of Anaheim's long playoff years, Sammy ended up playing the defensive center position on my favorite line of the postseason. His point totals against Detroit weren't that stunning (5 points in 10 games), but he did finish each series a +2 while averaging more than 4.5 shorthanded minutes per game.

3) Rob Niedermayer: The last member of the “2003 and 2007” club, Rob also played a significant role in twice eliminating Detroit. In both years, he played wing on the shutdown line, but had surprisingly strong offensive numbers (well, at least for Rob) while playing against the Wings' best.

2003: In his first playoffs for the Ducks, Rob played on a shutdown line with Steve Rucchin and Mike Leclerc, and proved to be a really strong forechecker. I remember him being a fabulous "first man in" after a dumped puck; Rob's strength is really on the offensive boards. Rob got 3 assists in the 4 games, which in Rob terms is phenomenal. In his first 31 playoff games with the Panthers before 2003, Rob had 4 assists.

2007: While Rob’s biggest contribution to the post-lockout Ducks was probably being Scott’s brother, he was also a strong contributor on Pahlsson’s shutdown line, strong enough that the trio played together for all 103 games of that season/postseason. Rob scored 3 goals in the Wings series to lead the team, and even though one of them was an empty-netter, we'll see below the importance of being able to score on an empty net.

Despite his shut-down role, Rob’s actually had impressive points totals against the postseason Wings: in 10 games, he has scored 8 points (0.8 pts/gm). Over the rest of his Anaheim career, he has played 50 playoff games NOT against Detroit and scored 15 points (0.3 pts/gm). Of course, Rob has his drawbacks also – between the two series he played more than 18 minutes of power play time without being on the ice for a PPG-for, but that’s more of a bad-use-of-personnel issue than a knock on Rob.

4) Scott Niedermayer: With Scott, you have to go way back in the time machine to look at his first time eliminating Detroit – he was a third-year player playing in his first cup finals for the New Jersey Devils. Still, Scott is another player who is 2-0 lifetime against the Winged Wheel, and while he might not inspire the same level of hatred as a Giguere or a Pronger, he’s scored some awfully kick-to-the-nuts goals against the postseason Wings.

1995: Ah, remember the days when lockouts would only last part of a season? At any rate, the 1995 cup finals featured Niedermayer’s Devils and the Detroit Red Wings, who at that point were 40 years removed from their most recent championship. Scott and the rest of the smothering Devils continued that drought, dropping the Wings in four straight. Though Claude Lemieux would end up taking home the Conn Smythe, Niedermayer had an impressive finals, with a highlight-reel, end-to-end goal and three assists in the four-game sweep.

2007: And if you think that ’95 goal was a back-breaker, Scott got even more clutch a dozen years (and 127 playoff games) later. He scored two goals in the six-game ’07 WCF, and both turned out to be huge. Game Two in Detroit he scored the game-winner from down low in the 15th minute of overtime to tie the series at 1 game apiece (assists to Rob & Sammy). Then, late in regulation of Game Five, with the Wings up by a goal and Giguere pulled for a 6-on-4, Scott delivered the "kick to the groin": a weak shot that deflected off the stick of Nick Lidstrom and fluttered lazily over Hasek’s shoulder (1:15 into this video). That shot, more than anything, decided that coin-flip series in Anaheim’s favor, and was probably the strongest case for Niedermayer’s Conn Smythe win.

The craziest thing about Scott’s tendency for huge goals is that the guy is pretty mediocre at shooting pucks. He’s nowhere near Pronger or Lidstrom in this regard. Still, there’s a lot of benefit having a full-time rover, and sometimes his weak-sauce shot is exactly what is needed to disrupt a goalie’s rhythm. Scott might not be as despised by Wings fans like Giguere or Pronger, but it’s tough to argue the importance of the goals he’s scored.

5) Chris Pronger: Ah yes, Sasquatch (as they call him). Pronger is the only member on this list to ever get eliminated by the Red Wings (four times on the Blues, I believe), but he’s certainly had his comeuppance since the lockout. In fact, one could make a claim that one of the biggest differences between Detroit’s 2008 cup run from the two previous attempts was that this time they didn’t have to go through Pronger. Or his elbows.

2006: Pronger was a monster for the Oilers in ’06, as the Red Wings would learn early and the Ducks would find out two rounds later. He scored seven points in the six-game Detroit series and ended the series a +4. That began a 2003-like run for the 8th-seeded Oilers, who proceeded to eliminate the Sharks and the Ducks before bowing out in their own SCF G7. Pronger finished Round One with three first stars of the game and one second star. How sick is that?

2007: Pronger was much more muted offensively in the ’07 WCF, only recording three assists in five games played, but his defensive numbers more than made up for that. In the '07 series, Detroit didn't score a single even-strength or power-play goal while Pronger was on the ice. While that’s impressive enough, I doubt that’s what Red Wings fans remember most.

Get off my elbow, Homer.
There’s a real case to be made that Pronger was the best player in both the 2006 and 2007 playoffs. Except for the technicalities that in 2006 he was a cup-loser and in 2007 he was suspended twice, he could have been the first back-to-back Conn Smyther since Mario Lemieux. Against the Wings both those years, he scored 10 points in 11 games and was on the ice for 20 GF, 10 GA, all while averaging more than 32 minutes per game. And despite his reputation, against the Wings he only had eight minors (somehow Rob Niedermayer went to the box for five minutes after this play).



The Two-Time Wing Killers. Can they make it Three?
I know this piece got awfully long and if you’re still with me, congrats. Still, I think it was worth going through the stories of these two-time Wing-killers, because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of players who have such streaks going (the only other one I could come up with in very limited research is Sandis Ozolinsh, who eliminated the Wings in his last three meetings – ’99, ’00, and ’03).

Combined, these five Ducks players made huge contributions in eliminating the Wings in ’95, ’03, ’06, and ’07, and it’s not a huge stretch to think if they hadn’t, Detroit might have won as many as four additional Stanley Cups by now. And really, who wants to live in that alternate reality? (Wings fans are insufferable enough as is.)

There's still plenty of other reasons for Wings fans to hate the Ducks (I didn't even mention the yappy mouth of Corey Perry), but I think this fivesome might prove as strong a rivalry argument as any. I'm hopeful that Detroit fans found this post as angering to read as I found it pleasing to write, because you know what that means. They'll be licking their lips for the next matchup, their chance for postseason revenge.

Welcome to the rivalry, Wings fans. Go Ducks.

BoC Gameday—Bedtime!

Anaheim Ducks (45-27-8, 3rd in west) at Los Angeles Kings (32-42-7, 15th in west)

I'm pretty excited, because yesterday I finally got my new laptop from my new job, and it's pretty slick. I haven't yet hooked it up to the scanner nor have I uploaded all my old spreadsheets, but I guess there's no rush so long as last year's cartoons keep applying again this year. From the archives:

Rudy has the game covered below; I can't say it's going to be that meaningful a game outside of the Kings' lottery position, and for the Ducks one last chance to play without Chris Pronger. Instead, I'll take a quick glance 2 games into the future for the Ducks, now that the top 5 seeds in the west are locked in (DET, SJS, MIN, ANA, DAL).


Round One: (4) Anaheim Ducks vs. (5) Dallas Stars
Here's three things to know about this series:

1. Are two Conn Smythe Trophies better than one? This series will feature three of the last four Smythe winners (in fact, three of the six still playing hockey today): J.S. Giguere (2003), Brad Richards (2004), and Scott Niedermayer (2007).

2. Long time no see. This series is the first Pacific vs. Pacific playoff series in five years, when these two teams met in the second round of 2003. Since then, the Ducks have won seven playoff series; the Stars have won none.

3. Is Turco vs. Giguere as big a mismatch as it seems? These two goaltenders made their playoff debuts in 2003, but have had quite different results thus far:

Playoff Stat	J.S. Giguere	Marty Turco
Career W – L	31 – 13	11 – 18
GAA, Sv%	1.96, 92.9%	2.21, 90.9%
OT Record	12 – 1	2 – 8
Seeds beaten*	1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6	8
Seeds lost to*	2	3, 4, 7, 7

* only includes series where the goalie started every game
While this fact-gathering is fun, though, there's also plenty of reasons to be scared shitless of the Stars; they've owned the Ducks for much of this year's season series, mostly played without Zubov or Boucher. But I'll be covering those reasons in another post.

Prediction: Ducks 4, Stars Kings 2. Ducks do the Kings a lottery favor; goals by Selanne, Marchant, Pahlsson, and Huskins.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Refocusing on the playoffs

Anaheim Ducks (42-26-8, 3rd in west) at Phoenix Coyotes (36-33-6, 11th in west)

Well, like Rudy below, with last night's result against the Sharks, I'm not sure I'm overly concerned with Duck game outcomes from here on out; they don't all need to be wins. It certainly seems that upward mobility in the standings is out of the question, as is dropping out of the playoff picture completely; now it's just about getting enough points to not slide very far. I've always been less concerned with playoff seeding than I probably ought to be; the more crucial thing has always been playing well when the playoffs arrive. Let's put it this way: there's no comfortable seeds in the west. It's a deep conference, and any team is capable of a first-round win. Last year the Ducks won the cup as a 2nd seed, but they've had fantastic runs from the 6 and 7 spots.

So to me, the bigger question isn't: can the Ducks hold off Dallas & friends for the fourth seed and home ice? Rather, it is: can the Ducks start the playoffs with the best roster available?

Last night Giguere pulled up lame with back spasms before the game, and was a surprise non-starter, throwing rookie Jonas Hiller to the bloodthirsty Sharks. This is pretty significant as each of the last two playoff years, Giguere has similarly been a surprise no-show for the postseason opener. Fortunately, the Ducks had a crazy Russian in reserve both those years (one whom they'll be visiting tonight) that was capable of dominating a series. It will probably be Giguere's decision when he returns, but hopefully he can sense that there's not a terrible rush for regular season wins. What's really critical is that he is game-ready for the first game of the postseason, wherever it is.

This principle can somewhat apply to any of Anaheim's major players--Niedermayer, Pahlsson, Selanne, or Getzlaf--there's no need now to be overextending those players in a quest for a higher fourth seed. Pronger, I guess fortunately, is having his jaw rested through league enforcement. Now perhaps Giguere can keep him company a few games before they return saved up for the postseason.

Political aside: I'm never one for presidential politics. I'm cynical and lazy about the voting process, and don't much care for anyone who passes for a legitimate candidate. Still, I am willing to reconsider, if only they'd address my issues:

Independent-voting Ducks fans in swing states, order yours today!
Prediction: Hiller was really encouraging with his surprise-start 41 saves last night; he was shaky in his first minute, but after that surrendered only a 5-on-3 goal in a game where'd you'd think "only one?". Should Giguere pull his usual G1 crap in a few weeks, I'm already feeling better about that potential Bryzgalovless scenario. As for offense, generating zero shots in the 3rd period looks worse on paper than it did on the ice, but I think that'll help spark the Ducks' forwards tonight. Ducks 4, Coyotes 2. Goals by Kunitz, Huskins, Pahlsson, and Bertuzzi.

Go Ducks.

Kings Gameday: Uh-Oh

LA Kings (thud) @ St. Louis Blues (28-27-10, 14th in West)

5:30 PST, FSN West

I write for a blog, and as part of that I'm required to love Alex Ovechkin. (I'm also required to kill 1 person of Eric McErlain's choosing.) Last night on Versus, they showed a little thing about Ovechkin and a few other Capitals tooling around on Segways and it was hilarious. Here's a little clip:




So, as you see, I love Alex Ovechkin. But lately, Ovechkin has been pissing me off. He had a hat trick last night to bring his goal total up to 52 on the season, and I just realized that Alex is dangerously close to breaking Luc Robitaille's immortal single-season record for most goals by a left winger. Robitaille, of course, set the record in '92-'93. Wayne Gretzky was injured for about half that season, so Luc carried the team (with an assist or 60 by Jari Kurri). I can't hear the number "63" without automatically thinking about Luc Robitaille and that beautiful Cup run that culminated with Los Angeles' victory over Toronto. (Nothing happened after that, you hear me? Nothing!!!) If Ovechkin takes that away, I may not be able to like him anymore.

Note: May not actually be Luc Robitaille

But Ovechkin seems like a cool guy, so I'll make him a deal: stop scoring goals so much and I won't have to hate you. Score, like, 60 goals. That's very respectable and absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. Leave Luc with the record. Leave me with the record. Please?

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Brian Hayward was in rare form last night during the Ducks-Senators game. When he wasn't bitching that Marty Turco was one of the NHL's Players of the Month instead of Giguere (and he has a point, but who cares?), he was harping on the size of Martin Gerber's pads. John Ahlers got in on the action, at one point saying (paraphrase), "Is it possible that Gerber's pads are so voluminous, that he can't feel the puck, is that something that's... (5-second pause) ...Niedermayer passes out of the corner..." Martin Gerber has large pads, huh? I wonder where he could have learned that little trick...

***

Oh wait, there's a game today. Umm, the Kings have been losing a lot despite the play of the young guys, and Jack Johnson almost killed a guy. The Blues suck, they're in 14th in the West, Paul Kariya is a douche bag, blah, blah, blah.

Prediction: Kings win, 21-7, Kopitar with 2 touchdown passes, Brown with a rushing TD. ...Wait, the Kings play hockey???

Ducks Gameday—A look back at the '03 playoffs

Dallas Stars (35-21-5, 2nd in west) at Anaheim Ducks (32-22-7, 3rd in west)

Three consecutive games against Detroit, Colorado, and Dallas means I get to talk about the (former) Big 3 of the west. Back in the late 90s, this schedule would probably mean three consecutive losses, but that was in a stretch where that Big 3 made eight straight cup finals (1995 - 2002) and were victorious in six of them. Frankly, that probably should have extended into 2003, as the Big 3 were the top seeds in the west, but the hockey gods were tired of that routine and gave the power of elimination to a certain J.S. Giguere.

During those '03 playoffs, I was nowhere near blogging, but I did have write a regular set of e-mails called "Ducks Hype", in which I chronicled some of the amazing statistics accumulated during that miracle run. It was a very small operation (the distribution list had three recipients), but I thought I'd pull some of those notes from the Dallas series just for nostalgia's sake.

April 28, 2003 (following game 2):

6-0. Against Detroit and Dallas. Detroit, who hadn't lost three games in a row all season, managed to lose four in a row to Anaheim (five, actually, if you count the last regular season matchup). Dallas, who lost just five games at home during the season (one to the Ducks, though), now is at 2-3 at home in the postseason. And now they sit in the same boat as Detroit, who was also fairly confused by their 0-2 deficit.

Consider:
1. Ten Ducks are in their first playoffs ever, including goaltender J.S. Giguere.
2. The Ducks scored their first powerplay goal of the postseason in G2, on their second 5-on-3 of the period, third of the series. Now they are 1 for 23.
3. The Ducks have been outshot in every game, a cumulated 171-120 from Detroit and 94-81 from Dallas. Combined, that's 265-201.
4. Sykora, their top goal scorer, now has but one goal (the 5-OT winner). Jason Krog, the fourth-line center, leads the team with three.
5. The Ducks have gotten zero goals from their defensemen.

Six wins, all by one goal. Four in overtime. Six different Ducks have game-winning goals. The Ducks have started 10 overtime periods (played a total of 132:43 of overtime total), been outshot in those overtimes 81-46, and Giguere has stopped every shot.

May 2, 2003 (following game 4):

No goaltender in the playoffs has faced as many shots on goal as J.S. Giguere, even though a half-dozen have played more games than Jiggy. Through eight games, Giguere has faced 325 shots, and given up 13 goals. Khabibulin in 10 games has seen 299 shots, the second-most, and has allowed twice as many goals (26). Although no goalie has seen as many shots as Giguere has, there are twelve goalies who have given up more goals.

How good is Jiggy's .960 save percentage? Consider this. Currently, Patrick Lalime is second in the league with a .940 save percentage (14 goals allowed on 232 shots). In order for him to get his save percentage up to .960, he would have to stop the next 118 shots on goal.

Lalime is also second in the league in Goals Against Average (Lalime: 1.48, Giguere: 1.27). In order for Lalime to lower his GAA to Jiggy's level, he would have to play almost 94 minutes of shutout hockey.

Lastly, although the Ducks do have a postseason record of 7-1, ironically they have spent more time trailing than leading in this postseason. They have played a total of 612:43, and they have spent 120:14 trailing vs. 118:58 leading. The reason for this discrepancy actually makes a little sense--since more than half their wins came in sudden-death overtime, they get credit for zero time with the lead.

May 7, 2003 (following game 6):

How can you say it's not magical? In all four Ducks wins against the Stars, they scored the game-winner on their final shot of the game.

How can you say it's not magical? In all six games of the series, the Stars were either tied or ahead with 2 minutes left in regulation.

In two series, then, the Ducks have won 8 one-goal games, and in 7 of those 8 wins, the game winner was after the 55-minute mark of the game.

As I reflect back, "magical" might be the right term to describe that playoff year. Even though it ended in G7 tragedy, I think that 2003 playoffs will remain the most special to me, as it really came out of nowhere and featured Anaheim's first toppling of the Big 3 dynasty. Nowadays, it isn't as big a deal; from 2003 to present, the Ducks have eliminated the Big 3 a total of four times, including two sweeps. Still, here's the question for Duck fans: which playoff year or playoff series was the most special for you?

Prediction: The Ducks have edged out the Red Wings and Avalanche; why not make it a Big 3 sweep? Ducks 3, Stars 2. Goals by Perry, Pahlsson, and Pronger.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Bertuzzi: more notorious than productive

Anaheim Ducks (11-9-4, t-3rd in west) at Vancouver Canucks (12-9-2, t-3rd in west)

I am sick as a dog today, so I'll try to keep this short and sweet. Tonight will be Todd Bertuzzi's first game against Vancouver since he was traded away for Luongo, plus it will be Anaheim's first game against the Canucks since eliminating them in five games last spring. Of course there's plenty of reaction from the Vancouver side of things: Canucks and Beyond, Canucks Hockey Blog, the Yankee Canuck, Orland Kurtenblog, and Waiting for Stanley all have some pregame that's much less congested.

While I understand why Todd Bertuzzi gets the spotlight today, it should be noted that Duck fans are still waiting to get some acceptable production out of the $4 M monster; despite playing the easiest 5-on-5 minutes on the Ducks, Bertuzzi has the team's worst 5-on-5 goals-against rate. Here's a comparison to the guy with the toughest 5-on-5 minutes in the league (source: Behind the Net, min. games = 5, min. TOI = 5).

Todd Bertuzzi, 10 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: -0.18 (589 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.31 (565 / 628)
Plus per hour: +2.44, Minus per hour: -3.05, Diff per hour: -0.61

Sammy Pahlsson, 19 games played
EVEN STRENGTH:
Strength of Opposition: +0.33 (1 / 628)
Strength of Teammates: -0.23 (510 / 628)
Plus per hour: +1.69, Minus per hour: -1.44, Diff per hour: +0.24

We'll see how well Bertuzzi is able to pull a season together, but at this point, he's got a lot of improving to do. Carlyle has sheltered his minutes as best as he can, now Bert has got to find a way to start outscoring some of the worst opposition in the league.

See also: my poem about Bertuzzi's concussion and my Bertuzzi-inspired comic book series.

Prediction: Lost a little bit in this preview is the fact that Roberto Luongo has only managed to beat J.S. Giguere once in eight tries last year, and that victory took two overtime periods to achieve. He's still the only goaltender to beat Giguere in a playoff OT game, but other than that has had a real difficult time being the better goaltender when going head-to-head. Giguere keeps the Luongdomination going tonight: Ducks 4, Canucks 2. Goals by Kunitz, Sutherby, Pahlsson, and Schneider; Bertuzzi finishes a -2.

Go Ducks.

A message from Gatorade Canada

Man, I'm such a sucker and a sell-out. Apparently all you need for some good BoC coverage is to send me a congratulatory e-mail, and a note that you are trying to network through hockey blogs. But even though I am a pushover for faint praise, I think the site below is interesting in discussing hydration issues for goaltenders and other athletes, and how J.S. Giguere was able to proactively improve his game stamina.

Hi Earl,

I’m contacting you on behalf of Gatorade Canada – I work for their public relations agency. As the resident Anaheim blogger on Battle of California (congratulations on winning the Cup!) I thought you may be interested in blogging about JS Giguere’s work with the Gatorade Sports Science Institute (GSSI) to tackle his hydration issues.

In the past, Giguere has suffered from cramping and exhaustion which often affected his game, before the 2006/07 season he saw a Gatorade television commercial about a runner who suffered from similar problems. Giguere contacted the GSSI to see if they could offer solutions that could improve his performance. At the GSSI, Giguere participated in rigorous sweat tests and hydration analysis, and they gave him tips to help him overcome his dehydration and perform a Stanley Cup winning season.

An online news release is at www.gatorade.ca/en/giguere. You can find facts, quotes, photos, videos and logos to share on your blog, if you think your readers would be interested.

I’d also love to know what you think about this news release format, as we built it for bloggers like you to make it easy to share the story.

Thanks,
Kat

PS - If you’d prefer not receive news from our agency or Gatorade, just let me know, and we won’t contact you again.

So if you're thirsty, feel free to check it out, and remember: Stay hydrated this summer. As Giguere says: “No matter what sport you’re in, I think hydration is the number one priority you should focus on, along with healthy eating. It gives you energy and helps you recover quickly for the next game.”

Four more years of Jiggy

Ah, looks as if my favorite J.S. Giguere graphic will get a lot more play around here (and not from the Kings' guys).

TSN reports a four year, $24 M extension, and I gotta tell you, I'm pretty pleased with the result. There's still a lot of unknowns for the Ducks, but based on my gut feel, I like both the term and the salary on this deal (I had it in my mind that anything less than $6.5 M per year was a good signing).

Thanks, Giguere. We may never know what he passed up by signing this contract today and not waiting for a desperate team on July 1st, but I gotta think he would have landed somewhere upwards of $7 M per year, and he probably could have landed something in the 6-year range. Hooray for ambiguous savings!

So, what does this mean for the future of Ilya Bryzgalov? Stay tuned for further episodes of the Brian Burke show throughout the summer...

Ducks Offseason: What the hell do I know?

You know, I’d like to write a really good post this time of year that kind of lays out what the Ducks’ gameplan is for the offseason, but quite frankly, there’s just too many unknown factors at this point to say anything definitively. So I thought I'd just lay out all the questions I don't know the answer to, and then give a few closing thoughts at the end.

Is Scott Niedermayer retiring? TSN reports that the Ducks' captain, fresh off a Norris finalist season (79 gp, 15 - 54 - 69 pts, +6, 34 PP pts) and a Conn Smythe postseason (21 gp, 3 - 8 - 11 pts, +2, 3 PP pts), is contemplating retirement, despite two more years on his contract. Rob Niedermayer has two years left on his contract, as well.

Is Teemu Selanne retiring, and if not, how much will be his base salary? This was more expected, even though Selanne had a tremendous season for the Ducks (82 gp, 48 - 46 - 94 pts, +26, 48 PP pts) and a capable playoffs as well (21 gp, 5 - 10 - 15 pts, +1, 6 PP pts). Selanne led the western conference in goals and the entire league in power play goals. Last year, Selanne signed a one-year deal that was for $3.75 M plus bonuses, and I'm guessing it amounted to something like $6 M, though this is a ballpark figure.

Did Dustin Penner sign a 3-year, $7 M contract? That's been the rumor floating the message boards, but I have not seen any official confirmation. The $2.33 M average would be a significant raise for the kid, as he played for league minimum ($450 k) last year. I'd say the raise is fair—he did pot 29 regular season goals in his "rookie" year.

How NHL-ready is Bobby Ryan? I barely pay any attention to prospects and minor league scoring, but I do know that this kid was the first pick Brian Burke made as a GM in the pick right behind Sidney Crosby. Should the Ducks be saving a spot on the roster for him this year?

Who is Jonas Hiller and why does he have Bryzgalov nervous? Sidearm Delivery provides a translation for Bryzgalov's quote in Sports Express: "I am sure that either I or Giguere will be leaving the club soon, since Anaheim have signed a strong Swiss keeper, Jonas Hiller. Giguere had a nice season, and I think Anaheim can sign him." Maybe another way to ask this question is: How set are the Ducks in net, even without Giguere?

What is the salary cap next year? This doesn't matter so much to the Ducks as spenders, necessarily, but it will impact the number of bidders for J.S. Giguere. While the Ducks do have exclusive negotiating rights with Giguere through June, it does feel kind of a meaningless edge; I doubt Giguere signs anywhere before this cap figure is finally released.

What will the Ducks' budget look like next year? The Ducks last year stayed well below the salary cap, thanks to a bevy of underpaid players. This year Beauchemin, Pahlsson, and Moen will get modest raises while Penner gets a significant one. Next summer Getzlaf and Perry figure to get significant raises, also. All that said, though, the Ducks enjoyed 12 extra home sellouts this spring, 4 of which were series-clinching games. Last summer they also renamed the team and redesigned the uniforms, coercing fans into purchasing all new gear. And by winning the cup, they'll benefit from champion merchandise revenue as well. By my eyes it had to be a monster year for the Ducks revenue-wise; how much of that will make its way into next year's payroll?

So, after all that, what's the right price for Giguere? Giguere went 36-10-8 in the regular season with a 2.26 GAA and a .918 sv%. In the playoffs he went 13-4 with a 1.97 GAA and a .922 sv%. And in terms of top goalie talent in the free agency pool, he's it. Giguere has indicated a preference toward staying in Anaheim, and for sure the fans love him, but what's the most that Brian Burke should be prepared to pay?

Pin the price tag on the goalie
Sleek's thoughts: Even if the Ducks lose Selanne, Niedermayer, and Giguere in the coming weeks, there is a benefit in losing 3 of the 4 highest-paid players on the team: replacement money. Using the $6 M estimate for Selanne, there would be nearly $17 M freed up to help patch the holes, and that's certainly enough money to pay some difference-makers.

At first I was worried that if Selanne and Niedermayer didn't come to a decision by July 1st, the Ducks would be in trouble missing out on first-day free agents. But then I remembered back to July 1st last year, and all the silly deals being handed out on that day, and I reconsidered. Even if there are holes that need to be filled, replacement money needn't be spent frivolously on expensive free agents. Given the choice, I'd rather see Burke fill those holes by trading with cap-tight teams.

Bottom line: there's too many unknowns here for me to do anything but "wait and see", but suffice to say I'm not that worried about the future just yet. Every one of Anaheim's potential "problems" comes with its own multi-million dollar "solution". That said, I really hope Scott in particular decides to stay, as his $6.75 M salary is looking pretty sweet compared with more recent UFA-defenseman signings (Blake, Redden, Jovanovski, Timonen), and I would like to remain spoiled by the Niedermayer-Pronger show for another year at least.

They say that Scott's got nothing left to win in hockey, but I can think of one thing he's never done. He's never won back-to-back Cups; that's gotta have some appeal, right Scott?

Ducks avoid suspensions on the Tonight Show

Wow. Between Jay Leno's huge chin, Brad May's knack for suckerpunching, and Chris Pronger's head hunting elbows, I'm surprised this segment went off without a hitch.

You can watch the clip here, though I'll warn you, it's nothing worth getting excited over.

Red Wings Shooting Guide

Stolen from Mike Babcock's playbook, page 34:

Figure 1: Where to shoot to beat J.S. Giguere


Losing G1 2-1 is not the worst possible outcome for the Ducks, but it certainly is not the best. There are some things to take solace in: the Ducks outshot the Wings 32-19 and carried a lot of the play--Detroit at home this postseason was averaging a +17 shot differential and hadn't been outshot yet. Plus I can't really fault Giguere for either goal that went in.

The Ducks not only played a really good road game (they had a tie game with 5 minutes to go), but it was also a really good set-the-tone G1. Positives abound.

But damn, I'd rather have the win.

J.S. Giguere: The Unbelievable Streak is over

As good as Luongo was in G2 (and I’m sure there might be a Vancouver writer or two covering that), I gotta stay and congratulate the guy in our nets: playoff-monster J.S. Giguere.

That was the first playoff-overtime goal that J.S. Giguere had surrendered in his career. Over the course of 197:52 (nearly 10 periods!). 103 straight game-saving saves. 8 straight overtime wins, including 4 multi-OT games.

3OT@DET, OTvDET, 5OT@DAL, OT@DAL, 2OT@MIN, OTvNJD, OTvNJD, OTvCGY:
He won ‘em all. He stopped ‘em all. He made zero mistakes.

It had to end someday, but dammit hats off to JS! We were spoiled, weren’t we?

----------------------------------
On a lighter note, did you hear the one about the NHL player who got shot in the head, got hit by a bus, and fell off a 30-story building?

Team doctors think he might have the flu.

Ducks/Wild Opening Thoughts: Injuries Likely!

One reason why this Ducks-Wild matchup is particularly scary is that even though these two teams haven't met since Dec. 31st, arguably the biggest injuries of the year for each team took place in the other team’s arena:

1. In the first game in Anaheim, Marian Gaborik suffered a third-period groin injury that would keep him out of the lineup for the next 34 games. He would miss all the rest of the games in the Anaheim season series. The table below demonstrates how badly Gabby was missed, and how well the team has responded upon his return:

Marian Gaborik (groin)	Games	Record	Win Pct.	GF/gm	GA/gm
Before injury	6	6-0-0	1.000	3.2	1.8
Without player	35	15-18-2	0.471	2.6	2.8
Since return	41	27-8-6	0.732	2.8	1.8

2. In the second game in Minnesota (a week later), Todd Fedoruk got destroyed in a fight with Derek Boogaard and would not suit up for the Ducks again (later traded to Philly before being re-destroyed by Colton Orr). I still maintain that this was a huge setback for the Ducks, as none of Fedoruk's replacements have been able to contribute as much between fights as Todd did playing with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf.

Todd Fedoruk (orbital)	Games	Record	Win Pct.	GF/gm	GA/gm
Before injury	10	7-0-3	0.850	3.1	1.9

3. In the fourth game in Minnesota, Chris Pronger broke his foot blocking a shot and would end up missing the next 9 games recovering from that injury. This of course was two games after J.S. Giguere and Francois Beauchemin suffered long-term injuries in a game against the Sharks, making the injury all the more devastating.

Chris Pronger (foot)	Games	Record	Win Pct.	GF/gm	GA/gm
Before injury	40	28-6-6	0.775	3.5	2.3
Without player	10	2-6-2	0.300	2.7	3.3
Since return	32	18-8-6	0.656	2.8	2.3

Note that both the Wild without Gaborik and the Ducks without Pronger (and friends) allowed an extra goal-against-per-game and pretty much sucked in the standings (the Wild less so because of OT/SO success). But that's three pretty huge injuries over the four-game series--yikes.

Looking for other potential heroes in this series? Here's some candidates from either side:

• J.S. Giguere, G, ANA: Aside from Giguere's ridiculous previous playoff series against the Wild in the '03 WC Finals, he's also played Minnesota very well in this season's series (2-0-1, with a 1.62 GAA and a .943 Sv%). The Wild scored zero power play goals in 13 chances against Giguere.
• Niklas Backstrom, G, MIN: Though Backstrom lost his only time playing the Ducks this season, he has been a huge reason for the Wild's strong finish. Since he took over the #1 goalie position on 2/1, he has gone 18-3-3 with a 1.95 GAA and a .929 Sv%. Also, the last time he allowed more than 2 goals in a game was more than a month ago.
• Scott Niedermayer, D, ANA: Scotty led all Ducks with 3 goals and 3 assists in the 4-game series; his offensive wandering seems to give the Wild's system some fits. SNieds was first star of the game for both games in Anaheim, and also was second star of the game for the first game in St. Paul.
• Pierre-Marc Bouchard, C, MIN: This guy may score moderately on the rest of the league, but he's murder against the Ducks. This year, he scored his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 8th goal of the season (plus one assist) in four games against Anaheim. Oh, and just as a side note, he did assist on the only goal that the Wild scored against the Ducks in the '03 postseason.

Wild Puck Banter has provided 6 reasons why he likes the Wild's chances--definitely worth a read, but you should note that I am definitely not overlooking one of the hottest second-half teams in the league this series--especially one that's still got the sting of '03 over its head.

To be fair, though, not that many players from the '03 series are left on either side: Anaheim still has J.S. Giguere, Rob Niedermayer, and Sammy Pahlsson, while Minnesota still has Marian Gaborik, P.M. Bouchard, Wes Walz, Nick Schultz, Manny Fernandez, and then-Mighty-Duck Keith Carney.

On a side note, I definitely have a couple of personal conflicts with this series. I will have real trouble posting about Gm 5 as that coincides with my brother's wedding rehearsal, and Gm 6 is the same day as his actual wedding day. Not to get greedy, but another series sweep would really make that weekend a lot less hectic for this best man.

More to come later, but that should suffice for now; definitely this is a series that could go either way, but I got no choice: GO DUCKS!

V for Vendetta—Who’s the hungriest for roast Duck this spring?

I’ve alluded to it before, but there’s at least four teams out west that have a pretty compelling tale of revenge against the once-Mighty Ducks for past-playoff upsets. Here’s a brief look at how those series went down, and why the west looks to be a minefield of vengeance for the Ducks this spring.

Detroit Red Wings
Last playoff matchup: 2003 playoffs, 1st round, (2) DET vs. (7) ANA
Result: 4-0 Ducks. Anaheim becomes the first team in NHL history to sweep a defending Stanley Cup champion. Game 1 in Detroit is especially significant, as Paul Kariya beats CuJo early in the third overtime period, wherein J.S. Giguere becomes the first goaltender to make 60+ saves in his playoff debut and the first goaltender ever to make 20 saves in one OT period. This really begins the playoff legend of Jiggy, as the Ducks are outshot all four games but manage four one-goal wins. Detroit, incidentally, had not lost three games in a row all season.
Key player: GIGUERE 4-0, 6 GA on 171 shots in more than 290 minutes of action, 1.24 GAA, .964 Sv%.

Dallas Stars
Last playoff matchup: 2003 playoffs, 2nd round, (1) DAL vs. (7) ANA
Result: 4-2 Ducks. Another huge upset, as Dallas was the top seed in the west. Again, the series started with a long G1 victory, as Petr Sykora finally beat Turco early in the 5th overtime period—this gave J.S. Giguere another postseason accolade, as he became the first goaltender ever to have two 60-save performances in one playoff year (for reference, Patrick Roy is the only other goaltender to have two 60-save performances in his career!). Two major “clutch” statistics for the Ducks in this series? (a) in all four wins, the Ducks score the winning goal on their final shot of the game, (b) in all six games of the series, the Dallas Stars were tied or ahead with 2 minutes left in regulation.
Key player: GIGUERE 4-2, 13 GA on 202 shots in more than 422 minutes of action, 1.85 GAA, .936 Sv%

Minnesota Wild
Last playoff matchup: 2003 playoffs, 3rd round, (6) MIN vs. (7) ANA
Result: 4-0 Ducks in the Cinderella v. Cinderella matchup. Of course, this is the most one-sided sweep in NHL history, as the Wild only managed to score ONE GOAL over the course of these four games. As was a common theme in those playoffs, again the Ducks started with a multi-overtime game one, this time again won by Sykora midway through the 2nd overtime period. And while Minnesota was not a scoring juggernaut by any means, bear in mind that they scored 26 goals on 149 shots in their previous 7-game series with Vancouver.
Key player: GIGUERE 4-0, 1 GA on 123 shots in more than 268 minutes of action, 0.22 GAA, .992 Sv%

Calgary Flames
Last playoff matchup: 2006 playoffs, 1st round, (3) CGY vs. (6) ANA
Result: 4-3 Ducks, beating the defending western conference champions. This was a much different story than any of the other series, because J.S. Giguere went from playoff-god to playoff-god-awful (though to be fair, he was playing through injury); this series instead became the emergence of Ilya Bryzgalov. Consider this: in this series, Giguere surrendered 13 goals in 201 minutes, compared to Breezy surrendering only 3 goals in 225 minutes. Calgary’s power play was 6-for-28 against Giguere and 0-for-15 against Bryzgalov. Considering how much offense Giguere provided the Flames, it’s amazing that the Ducks still came out on top—but the real story has to be Calgary blowing a 3-2 series lead, especially since that’s how they had ended their previous postseason with Tampa. Actually, Calgary is the only team on this list to have ever had a series lead on the Ducks, and they blew all three series leads they had.
Key player: BRYZGALOV 2-1, 3 GA on 93 shots in more than 225 minutes of action, 0.80 GAA, .968 Sv%

I’m not really going to add Colorado to this list as their playoff hopes are nearly shot, but they were also pretty embarrassingly swept by the Ducks last spring as well, shut out the first two games and outscored in the series by Joffrey Lupul himself 6-4. (Oh, just because it's impressive: BRYZGALOV 4-0, 4 GA on 121 shots in more than 256 minutes of action, 0.94 GAA, .967 Sv%)

Just for perspective, look at how well the opposing goaltenders did that got beaten by the Ducks:

JOSEPH (DET): 10 GA on 120 shots in more than 288 minutes; 2.08 GAA, .917 Sv%
TURCO (DAL): 14 GA on 176 shots in more than 439 minutes; 1.91 GAA, .920 Sv%
FERNANDEZ (MIN): 4 GA on 70 shots in more than 174 minutes; 1.37 GAA, .943 Sv%
KIPRUSOFF (CGY): 16 GA on 202 shots in more than 427 minutes; 2.24 GAA, .921 Sv%

These aren’t bad playoff numbers at all. Almost a shame they had to run into the hottest goaltender of that year’s playoffs.

So, based on what you’ve seen above, what is the worst way to lose to the underdog Mighty Ducks?

• Get swept in four 1-goal games?
• Lose four games in the last two minutes of play?
• Score only one goal in a series?
• Blow three series leads?

Which of these series losses hurt the most, and who’s got the biggest appetite for roast Duck this spring?

Battle of California round 3 photos

Jean-Sebastien Giguere prepares for a shot in the second period.



Vesa Toskala dives to the far post to stuff a rebound attempt from Corey Perry.



The B.O.C. readers or Earl Sleek can caption this photo. More from the Ducks 7-4 win is available here.

The Importance of Being Giguere

James Mirtle wrote me an email back on Dec. 29th that I never really got around to answering:

I was thinking today -- with Giguere out and Wall in goal, this will give the hockey world a good glance at the Ducks with just an average 'tender in net. My impression from watching a dozen Anaheim games is that Giguere is getting a little too much Vezina dap for what he's actually done -- but I'm curious, how big a part of the Ducks success do you think is due to their goaltending?

You know, I've tried like five times to write a good response to that e-mail, but honestly, it's a tough question. So in lieu of me actually answering it, I'll instead just provide one jaw-dropping stat to consider:

Ducks when Giguere gets the start: 25-3-4
Ducks when Giguere does not start: 6-9-4

Discuss.

[EDIT: Moneyp makes a good point in the comments--that the second statistic does include a 2-7-2 stretch with no Beauchemin and hardly any Pronger. Even so, though, that still leaves a 4-2-2 record behind a healthy defense when Giguere does not start (a glorified .500).

I guess the question I really have for Duck fans is this: Given the fact that our two most prominent UFAs-to-be (Selanne and Giguere) are both having monster seasons, GM Burke may be facing a choice of which one to try to retain this coming offseason. If you were the GM, which free agent would you be putting your energies towards re-signing?

I gotta say, as much as Teemu has been killing with his league-leading 31 goals, I'm still probably leaning Giguere for that question. How about you?]

Anaheim Sucks—Only 2 losses left until the All-Star Break!

“Watch this, Lis. You can actually pinpoint the second when his heart rips in half.”
--Bart Simpson, “I Love Lisa”

Well, from my perspective, there is one precise moment when the Anaheim Ducks fell apart and became the Anaheim Sucks, Boxing Day at San Jose. To recap, that is the game where Francois Beauchemin lacerated his spleen and J.S. Giguere pulled his groin. Two games later, Chris Pronger broke his foot, and sure enough, that’s a tough trio to replace. Despite the lengthy IR time, they still remain #1, 3, and 4 in overall Anaheim ice time, and heck, Giguere is still 4th in the league in wins and Pronger is still 2nd in the league in defenseman scoring.

Through Boxing Day, the Ducks were a ridiculous 28-5-6, a .795 win percentage and outscored opponents 3.49 – 2.23. Since then, however, the Sucks have been an inversely ridiculous 2-5-2, a .333 win percentage and a negative goal differential of 2.89 – 3.33. Only the NY Islanders and the Chicago Blackhawks have less standings points since Dec. 27 than the Sucks do.

The problems start in the net. Since Giguere (23-4-5, 2.17 GAA, .924 sv%) went down with injury, his replacements have gone 3-5-2 with a 2.97 GAA and a .881 sv%. Even though the Sucks have lowered their shots-against-per-game by some 13%, their goals-against-per-game has increased by some 37%.

On the blueline, things are equally as crazy, as lots of minutes are being made up by AHL talent despite the fact that Scott Niedermayer has increased his ice time to more than 30 minutes a night. If you think about the collection of defensemen not named Niedermayer, Pronger, Beauchemin, and O’Donnell, these guys used to average a combined 24 minutes per game for the Ducks. For the Anaheim Sucks? That collective number has skyrocketed to 65 minutes per game.

And even among the relatively healthy forwards, suckage has trickled down to those not named Selanne or Getzlaf. In the last 9 games, Teemu Selanne has 10 goals and Ryan Getzlaf has 4. The rest of the forwards combined have 9, including 2 NHL-debut goals from Bjorn Melin and Curtis Glencross.

So, bottom line? The Anaheim squad we’ve been icing the last nine games is unbelievably terrific, putting up points at a rate that would (if extrapolated to a full season) have them finish 29th in the league, last in the west and only slightly better than the Philadelphia Has-Beens. And until someone comes back from the injury trio, I don’t really see these Sucks getting much better.

And yet, despite this colossal fall from greatness, despite the fact that the western and Pacific leads are dwindling away, I still refuse to worry (though I certainly am drinking like I’m worried). Ultimately, only two things matter in my book: making the playoffs (check) and playing well once you get there. Yeah, yeah, home ice and stuff should matter, but recall that in the western conference last year, only once was a team able to win a series with home ice advantage (Anaheim over Colorado). Then again, in the east only one team was able to win a series without home ice advantage (Buffalo over Ottawa).

Per Brian Hayward last night, Giguere, Beauchemin, and Pronger are all on-schedule for their much-needed returns, and I think for Giguere and Beauchemin, that means right after the All-Star Break (which for Anaheim is a welcome 8 days off). Until then, we can probably expect losses in both Edmonton tomorrow and Calgary the day afterward, and will probably find the team behind the surging Predators and neck-and-neck with the quickly-approaching Sharks once action resumes.

Hope’s around the corner, Duck fans, and frankly, this probably turns a dull end-of-the-season into a 2-month-long nail-biter. And as for you Suck fans, well, you probably get two more games to enjoy the limited-time-offer of two free points.

And for me? It's looking like two more games of excess liquor (lately, Johnny Walker Gold). Can’t wait.