Dustin Penner Sucks, Take 1,783

I've been an independent observer of this whole Dustin Penner fiasco, and like M*A*S*H* or a penis, it just gets better the longer it goes. To recap: The Oilers sign Dustin Penner to a 5-year, $21.25 million dollar deal after his astounding 43-point season playing alongside 2 scrubs named Ryan Getzly and Chris Perry or something like that. Who cares, they've never done anything anyway. There was much gnashing of the teeth from bloviating jackass Brian Burke, who criticized Lowe for ruining both teams; this was followed by a lot of back-and-forth between the outmatched Anaheim blogging contingent and the Edmonton juggernaut. But, in the end, Brian Burke was right: the Dustin Penner offer sheet not only left Edmonton with an overpaid, unmotivated baby, but also screwed the Ducks over when they had an opportunity to win a 2nd cup. To that I say, "Huzzah!"

The problem with the Edmonton offer sheet from their perspective was that they were not in the position to offer it. The Oilers were coming off a poor season, finishing 11th in the Western Conference. They had just traded their "heart and soul" in Ryan Smyth for a number of prospects and draft picks and had seemingly committed to rebuilding. Then they spent over $4 million dollars a year on Dustin Penner, losing 3 draft picks in the following draft. Strange. Now the Oilers have a weird amalgamation of good young players, overpaid free agents, and aging goaltenders that no one likes. They might make the playoffs but they're not likely to be a favorite at any point in the future and the money given to Penner can't be used on anyone else. The Oilers are a strange team.

The Ducks, on the other hand, were precisely the kind of team that was in a position to poach another team with an offer sheet. The problem, of course, was that they didn't have any money.* The Ducks ended up getting screwed by a problem mostly of their own making because for some weird reason they had signed Todd Bertuzzi and they lost Dustin Penner. This ended up killing them last season because what position did they need to fill the most? 2nd-line left wing, the exact position Penner filled last season. You may wonder why Penner is perfect in this spot yet subpar for the Oilers. One, stop asking questions. Two, when Penner was playing with Getzlaf and Perry he didn't have to bang in the corners (because Getzlaf does that) and he didn't have to fight in front of the net and paw at defenders like a little bitch (because Perry does that). What he could do was hover and find the open space for a Getzlaf pass, and he does that pretty well. Bobby Ryan will most likely fill that position in the future, but by that time Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne will be retired and the Ducks' Stanley Cup window will have temporarily closed. Hooray!

*That's why offer sheets aren't more popular, despite all the hand-wringing by writers and GMs: the teams that would benefit from them are good teams that want one more piece, but those teams are generally near the cap; the teams that can afford to spend the money need the draft picks to rebuild their franchise.

Of course, creating a counterfactual where Dustin Penner stayed on the Ducks creates a whole other set of scenarios: they probably don't sign Mathieu Schneider and they probably trade Andy MacDonald anyway. Maybe they end up trading Penner anyway and get less than the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick they got for him. But overall, I think both teams screwed themselves: the Oilers ended up with an overpaid player that doesn't fit their needs and the Ducks were hurt in one of their last years at being competitive for a Stanley Cup. It's pretty awesome if you think about it. You know, for me. The Oilers are one of those teams that could contend for a few years if they got their act together and I hate the Ducks, and in one fell swoop they managed to destroy each other. Now I just need Erik Johnson to get hurt and the Blackhawks to waste all their cap space on a red-headed goof and the Kings should be all set in the Pacific. Oh wait, that happened? Excellent. *strokes white cat

Inaugural Battle of California 2007-08 photo contest

Save for one entry from 2007, vote for your favorite photo on Battle of California this season. There is Marc Edouard Vlasic giving George Parros flying lessons, Craig Rivet pounding Ryan Carter into jiblets part 1 and 2 (do Ducks have giblets?), and Dustin Penner meets ice-ice wins. Unfortunately 2007-08 was a relatively Pronger-Perry free photographic output.



Bonus Photo - Parker vs Parros 2007.

Earl answers his mail: Forward Lines, a year-to-year comparison

Sleek,

The Ducks play so far has me frustrated. And you seem like the guy to help explain the frustration. I'm curious about ES TOI this year versus last year for the Duck's containment line. As yourself, I'm a huge fan of Pahlsson, but it seems like that line is getting more ES TOI this year. Could just be my imagination.

However, if it's true, then it might explain some of the drop off in scoring. And also point to a coaching phylosophy that needs to change. The Ducks need to dictate play, rather than react (by over-using the containment line).
Keep up the great work on the blog.

Jeremy

I'm a sucker for flattery, and yeah, I do have been keeping some spreadsheets for this sort of question, so without further ado, let's take a look at the forward lines for Anaheim, this year compared to last year. In a lazy move, I'm just using screen captures of Excel tables; hopefully they are all legible.

For the Ducks, it really makes sense to compare forwards by their on-ice responsibility, because I think context matters a great deal in Carlyle's strategy. The Ducks play a top scoring line against the opposition's top defenders, a stopper line against the opposition's top scorers, and a sheltered line that for the most part doesn't carry either responsibility. The tables below are meant to reflect that, and show each line's even-strength minutes per game, even-strength points per 60 minutes, and even-strength goal-differential per 60 minutes. I'll try to indicate numbers that stand out to me after each table.

The Top Line:
With the departure of Teemu Selanne, the top line minutes this year have gone to the kids--Getzlaf and Perry. In terms of even-strength TOI, it seems the top line is playing more than it did last year. The thing about this year's top line is that while their point production seems adequate when compared against last year, this year's version bleeds goals-against at a higher level than Selanne's line ever did. It's a fair concern, as it does put a lot of the burden of outscoring onto the other lines.

The Stopper Line:
Unlike the other lines in this analysis, the stopper line continues this year without any change in personnel. In terms of Jeremy's question, we can note that the even-strength minutes-per-game have increased, and also noticeable is that the stopper line is scoring at a lower rate than they were last year. Even so, the rate at which the line gets outscored (quite a reasonable outcome considering the difficulty of minutes) hasn't changed a whole lot--the stopper line is still contributing like they did last year, though with a lower offensive output.

The Shelter Line:
This is where things get a little shady, as this "second line" personnel has been fairly shifty this year, and even Dustin Penner last year wasn't a full-time member of the Getzlaf line. Still, this gives a sense of who's getting the easier minutes on the team and what's being done with them. A big reason for last year's success can be pinned on the fact that Getzlaf and Perry were able to dominate these minutes, something that McDonald and Bertuzzi, in particular, seem unable to do. These players, too, seem to have picked up some minutes-per-game, something we've seen on every line thus far.

A quick look at special teams:
Here are each year's top minute-men on the power play and on the penalty kill. The power play scoring rates are obviously lower this year than last year, and a lot of that can be pinned on the 2nd unit's personnel--giving Mark Mowers and Rob Niedermayer power play time isn't in any winning coach's strategy book. Going by minutes, it seems that the Ducks have less power play time per game than last year, which probably correlates to the additional even-strength ice time we've seen on every line.

As for the penalty kill, the top pairing of Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer seem to be as effective as last year, but the secondary unit of Marchant and Moen has seen a steep drop-off in goal prevention.

Conclusions:

I think this analysis has been useful in seeing which minutes, in particular, seem to be preventing the Ducks from experiencing success similar to last year's. The problems that I can see are that the shelter line isn't finding a way to outscore soft competition, the top line is allowing more goals-against, and the stopper line could score some more goals. However, on an overall level I can't say that overplaying the Pahlsson line looks to be the Ducks' problem--that line, at least, has differential rates similar enough to last year.

Really, though, the Ducks' problem isn't really one that's explained through the forward minutes, I think. Certainly there are effects that come from personnel changes, but I think what's causing the dropoff more is the lack of a second Norris defenseman; last year these lines either had the benefit of usually a Pronger or a Niedermayer on their blueline, but nowadays Pronger minutes can only be distributed so far (usually in a defensive setting, as nobody else is really trustworthy).

The Ducks' movie theme thus far.
I have no idea what sort of team the Ducks would become if or when Scott Niedermayer rejoins the team, but I gotta think that a lot of these issues could be compensated by a blueline that's better at retrieving the puck and creating offense through transition. In that regard, TSN's Bob McKenzie has fantastic news for Ducks fans; Scott may be returning to the roster very soon.

If that happens, I'll gladly re-run these numbers after several games to see what effect another Norris defender has on the forward minutes. I'm not sure it can get back to last year's numbers, but I'll be happy for any improvement to what's become a rather mediocre team. In the meantime, I'll probably throw another post up pretty soon to show the defenseman minutes, where the Ducks' year-to-year dropoff will probably be more apparent.

Thanks for the question, Jeremy. As always, Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—Oh, you Oilers

Anaheim Ducks (12-10-4, t-4th in west) at Edmonton Oilers (10-14-1, t-14th in west)

I made this poster earlier this summer, but it was a pretty flimsy concept: "Hm, doesn't the name 'Penner' look kind of like the name 'Potter'?" It's not the strongest graphic to ever make its way to this blog, but considering I got nothing else ready today, it seems more than appropriate.

Dustin Penner's counting stats thus far this season have been fairly mediocre: 25 gp, 4 g, 7 a, -1. Of course, it might not be that surprising if you took a look at his last 25 games in a Duck uniform (mostly playoffs): 25 gp, 4 g, 5 a, +3. That Anaheim stretch includes Penner going scoreless throughout the month of May, something that's likely to be repeated this year unless the Oilers get some magical boost in the standings.

It's not really that Penner's useless on the ice, but he's got to be played very carefully—he's a big-bodied passenger, one who will neither be very useful in backchecking nor will be the catalyst in the offensive end. He's incredibly strong along the boards and somewhat capable with the puck, but in terms of his overall contribution, it is pretty reliant on his linemates' ability to do most of the skating, defense, and puckhandling for him, and is best utilized against pretty soft competition. These drawbacks are pretty overlookable when the big guy plays for league minimum; however with a huge paycheck in a salary-capped league, the flaws get a lot more scrutiny (see also: Bertuzzi).

Often-ignored upside: Dustin Penner kills terrorists!
I don't really want to get too critical of Oiler management (the Oilosphere has that more than covered), but the one aspect that strikes me the most about the Penner offer sheet: if I'm a GM that has publicly admitted his team's inability to attract UFAs, I wouldn't be in the business of driving up RFA salaries at the expense of UFA salaries. Sure, with the CBA being what it is, I'm sure eventually the stigma around offer sheets would have eventually disappeared, but still, it is significant that Kevin Lowe did trigger this market shift. Probably the best thing Edmonton has going for it is a solid group of young, entry-level talent; jumping the offer-sheet gun seems only to paint a dark future for keeping it together. And heck, thanks to Lowe getting desperate in the Pronger deal and the Penner deal, even a bottom finish by the $50M-payroll, injury-plagued Oilers won't yield them anything—the Ducks hold the Oiler's 1st round pick, while Lowe will pick based on Anaheim's finish.

To be fair, nothing really should be judged on the Penner offer sheet until year three or so; the five-year contract was more a long-term gamble than a short-term one, and it's entirely possible that Hemsky and friends learn to use the big body of Penner effectively or that he improves on his weaknesses and gets much more worth his salary (he still is rather new at this league). Also, it will be better gauged after we see what Burke does with his picks—I've seen little evidence so far that Burke is a draft wizard; at least nobody he's drafted so far seems willing to make the big league roster.

Anyway, I'm getting rambly; feel free to offer your Penner-thoughts or Edmonton-reaction in the comments. Meanwhile, from the Oilblog angle (one that you have to respect--nobody's had a fall from grace like they have), Covered in Oil put together a nice Oiler-drinking game for tonight; I especially like the suggestion in the comments: "Drink every time Dustin Penner looks tired."

Prediction: Ducks 3, Oilers 2. The CinO-reading crowd gets filthy drunk. Goals by McDonald, Pahlsson, and Getzlaf.

Go Ducks.

Thank You Kevin Lowe

This Thanksgiving weekend all Sharks and Ducks fan are thankful. Sharks fans and Ducks fans agreeing on the same thing you ask? Ever since Kevin Lowe's ultra aggressive actions during free agency, NHL general managers have had to be pro-active with their Restricted Free Agents. Ever since Lowe signed Dustin Penner away with an outrageous contract offer, both Brian Burke and Doug Wilson have been busy signing their own RFA's before another GM pulls a Lowe and offers an unmatchable offer. Burke has signed both Getzlaf and Kunitz (don't worry Perry you are next) and Wilson has done the same with Michalek and Carle. In past years, GM's would look at their UFA's knowing their RFA's would not be in danger of signing since they could match any offer and the penalty for signing anyone was costly (4 1st round picks?) This has made GM's look at the core of their team and make sure they are signed before they reach Restricted status.

[SLEEK EDIT: I added this picture because I'm drunk!]
Will the Sharks ever play another game? Once again the Sharks are on an extended break. This time an unusual 1 week break between games once again allows Ron Wilson to start Nabby in every game this year and I don't see this changing anytime soon. After the game tomorrow, the Sharks have another 3 days off so no reason to rest Nabby for at least another week.

Ducks Preview, Part 1: Defining what needs to be replaced

Well, now that camp is halfway done and it’s become apparent that Niedermayer or Selanne have no imminent plans to rejoin the team, I think I can finally sit down and start writing up a season preview. Previewing this Anaheim team is still a bag of questions, however, as I don’t really know how forward lines or defensive pairs will be laid out, but in any case a good first step is to determine precisely what’s missing from last year. Essentially, this can be boiled down to three significant players and their contributions: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, and Scott Niedermayer. These three combined for 103 goals over 103 games (regular season plus playoffs), but let’s delve in a bit to see where those goals really came from.

To study this, I am going to compare Selanne & Penner’s output to the results of the rest of the Anaheim forwards. Then I will compare Niedermayer’s output to the results of the rest of the defensemen. Finally, I will look at all three players’ results compared to the rest of the team.

Note that this strictly is dealing with on-ice productivity, ignoring such factors as experience, leadership, salary, or popularity. I will also be talking a bit about quality of minutes based on Behind the Net’s quality of teammate and quality of opposition metrics, which basically provide a context for the ice time based on the other players on the ice.

EVEN STRENGTH

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 15 / 676, Opposition ranking: 566 / 676
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 104 / 676, Opposition ranking: 572 / 676
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 486 / 676, Opposition ranking: 132 / 676

Player	ES TOI	ES G	ES A	ES Pts	ES Plus	ES Minus
Teemu Selanne	1,364	28	27	55	+72	–42
Dustin Penner	1,125	23	13	36	+48	–44
Rest of forwards	11,339	125	185	310	+478	–386
Selanne / Penner Pct.	18%	29%	18%	23%	20%	19%
Scott Niedermayer	1,803	8	35	43	+80	–67
Rest of defense	7,593	17	73	90	+320	–253
Niedermayer Pct.	19%	32%	32%	32%	20%	21%
All three players	4,292	59	75	134	+200	–155
Rest of team	18,932	142	258	400	+798	–639
Three Player Pct.	18%	29%	23%	25%	20%	20%

Takeaways: Both Selanne and Penner had relatively easy ice time, playing mostly with teammates that produced at even strength and against opponents that did not. Using that icetime, Selanne and Penner were able to score 29% of Anaheim forwards’ goals and 23% of the points, using 18% of the available ice time. Those are lofty numbers, but there is plenty of scoring ice time available to help replace that production.

Niedermayer, on the other hand, played much more difficult even-strength shifts, and despite this was able to score 32% of Anaheim defensemen’s goals and points using 19% of the available ice time. These are going to be much more difficult points to replace at even-strength, as it will have to be done with some defensive-oriented teammates and against some lofty competition.

Overall, the three players produced 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 25% of Anaheim’s even-strength points.

POWER PLAY

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 4 / 428, Opposition ranking: 406 / 428
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 23 / 428, Opposition ranking: 353 / 428
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 8 / 428, Opposition ranking: 356 / 428
(note that these rankings are based on 5-on-4 only)

Player	PP TOI	PP G	PP A	PP Pts	PP Plus	PP Minus
Teemu Selanne	479	25	29	54	+68	–3
Dustin Penner	315	9	8	17	+37	–3
Rest of forwards	1,604	43	83	126	+215	–17
Selanne / Penner Pct.	33%	44%	31%	36%	33%	26%
Scott Niedermayer	582	10	27	37	+77	–7
Rest of defense	982	18	56	74	+125	–6
Niedermayer Pct.	37%	36%	33%	33%	38%	54%
All three players	1,376	44	64	108	+182	–13
Rest of team	2,586	61	139	200	+340	–23
Three Player Pct.	35%	42%	32%	35%	35%	36%

Takeaways: By the end of the playoffs, Selanne, Penner, and Niedermayer made up 3/5 of the Ducks’ top power play unit. And even though the Ducks’ PP sputtered towards the end of the playoffs, it still was one of the best performing units throughout all of last year.

Because of the PP dominance, you can see that all three players have very easy-looking quality of icetime, though I should caution that the Teammate ranking is largely based on playing with each other, something that replacement players will not have the benefit of. Still, the players who will need to replace this offense will be given the opportunity to play with the best available teammates, so I’m not sure how these metrics will be affected.

Power play results are a pretty tricky concept, especially when overhauling most of a top unit. It’s tough to get a handle on how chemistry, positions, or roles will change. Selanne in particular appears the most difficult to replace, as his 25 regular season power play goals led the entire league.

One strange factor to note, though: despite the lofty numbers, this trio of players only combined for one postseason power play goal. I guess the encouraging thing is that the Ducks were still able to win despite the special teams dropoff.

PENALTY KILL

(Both Selanne and Penner played less than 10 minutes of PK time, so they are exempted.)

Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 160 / 395, Opposition ranking: 68 / 395
(note that these rankings are based on 4-on-5 only)

Player	SH TOI	SH G	SH A	SH Pts	SH Plus	SH Minus
Scott Niedermayer	415	0	0	0	+2	–46
Rest of defense	1,271	0	4	4	+10	–106
Niedermayer Pct.	25%	0%	0%	0%	17%	25%

Takeaways: This is why Scott Niedermayer is amazing. Alongside his impressive even-strength and power play assignments, he also threw in quite a bit of shorthanded play as well. His results don’t look terribly spectacular, but considering his difficulty of 4-on-5 minutes and his regular spot on 2-man disadvantages, it is significant time that will need to be replaced as well.

THE BOTTOM LINE

These three players represent 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 42% of Anaheim’s power play goals, and all told represent one full goal-scored per game. That said, there is some pretty attractive ice time available to help offset these losses. With this in mind, let’s take a quick glance at the two main replacements that were brought in this summer:

Mathieu Schneider: Schneider is a pretty optimal replacement for Scott Niedermayer’s even-strength and power play production, I think. He certainly won’t have the versatility and endurance to replace all of Niedermayer’s ice time, but if Scott’s penalty kill can be absorbed by other defensemen (Shane Hnidy or Sean O’Donnell, perhaps), then I think the Ducks can avoid a huge dropoff in their blueline production.

Todd Bertuzzi: This is where things get complicated. In a good scenario, Bertuzzi could pick up Selanne’s slack on the top line; in a bad scenario, Bertuzzi is only good enough to pick up Penner’s slack on the second line. But for sure, he will not be able to replace both of them, and whichever one’s offense he cannot replace will have to be offset from within the organization (a tall order, especially if it’s Selanne’s production). Bertuzzi certainly has upside that could possibly replace Selanne, but it’s tough to know for sure until he sees some regular ice time.

Anyway, it’s clear looking at the players leaving and the replacements that Anaheim (in the absence of any future roster moves) is due for a drop-off; there’s just not enough talent coming back to replace the talent that is leaving. Of course, all this gets thrown out the window should either Selanne or Niedermayer decide to pick up the skates and start playing again, but in their absence, how much will the offense suffer? And how much will that affect results?

I don’t have a solid idea of how this season will turn out for Anaheim’s title defense, but this post gives an idea of what the on-ice obstacles will be. It certainly promises to be a revealing year for Anaheim, though, and while I can’t predict it very well, I’m still looking forward to it with eagerness.

Go Ducks.

Penner leaves BoC—will his offense go with him?

So in the wake of Dustin Penner’s recent departure to more Oilish pastures, I thought I’d take a brief look today a bit closer at how his on-ice performance last year broke down by opponent.

Similar to what I noted last February about the Sharks’ Jonathan Cheechoo, it appears that Penner greatly increased his scoring rates against BoC opponents compared to his scoring rates against the rest of the league. Penner scored 8 points in 8 games against the Sharks, 7 points in 8 games against the Kings, and 38 points in 87 games against non-BoC opponents. The table below is a simplified version of the findings (regular season + playoffs, broken down by even-strength and power play results):

Opponent	GP	ES Min.	ES G-A-Pts.	ES Pts./hr	ES +/- /hr
BoC	16	180	6-3-9	3.00	+2.33
non-BoC	87	945	17-10-27	1.72	-0.19
Opponent	GP	PP Min.	PP G-A-Pts.	PP Pts./hr	PP +/- /hr
BoC	16	44	3-3-6	8.12	+14.89
non-BoC	87	270	6-5-11	2.44	+5.11

It’s really an interesting split—BoC opponents represent 16% of Penner’s games played, 28% of his goals-scored, and 28% of his points-scored. And it is worth noting that nearly all his numbers were better against the formidable Sharks than against the pushover Kings (in fact, in 8 games against the Sharks, Penner was not on the ice for a single goal-against).

I don’t think there’s enough here to draw any hard conclusions, but either Penner really got motivated for in-state divisional rivals, or else these two teams specifically had trouble controlling the big body. In either case, it’s probably a good thing for the Sharks and Kings that they figure to see half as much Penner in the coming season as they did last year.

Of course, the real question might be for Penner himself: is it a bad thing for him and the Oilers that he'll see half as much Kings and Sharks as he did last year? Theories are welcome in the comments.

Sleek's Poetry Corner, Part 3

(Previous Poetry Corners: Francois Beauchemin, Samuel Pahlsson)

Well, seeing as we still have a day or two until this Penner offer sheet gets resolved, my imaginary therapist figured it's probably best for me to deal with this offer sheet situation through some relaxing poetry, something I haven't really broken out since November last year. I'm a bit rusty, but hopefully still relevant:

Ode to Dustin Penner

D id you hear the story of mad Kevin Lowe?
U nable to sign anyone—he’s got money to blow.
S o far this offseason he’s felt quite maligned,
T urns out that Nylander hadn’t quite signed,
I tching for players, Lowe then tried for Vanek,
N ow that he’s failed, though, he’s starting to panic.

P erhaps, though, this offer sheet will go through,
E specially by overpaying a million or two,
N ever mind that Penner’s had Lupul-ish stats,
N or that his career doesn’t have many at-bats.
E dmonton with Penner will be somewhat stronger,
R egrettably, though: he’ll never be as worthwhile as Pronger.

As a Ducks fan, it is sort of strange to know how to feel about the Oilers: on the one hand, they do represent the last team to knock the Ducks out of the playoffs; on the other, they certainly lost out in the Pronger "deal", and now they are offering three draft picks for the right to increase Penner's salary tenfold? I really don't know whether to hate them, pity them, or just flat out thank them.
Waa! Gimme back your semi-star!

This of course is a pictoral tribute to my previous Pronger post:
"Waa! Gimme back my superstar!"

A few more thoughts on Dustin Penner

I went home last night to think through this Penner offer sheet a bit more, but I don't think my conclusion has changed. Here are some stats I've gathered that indicate that Penner should not be Anaheim's highest paid forward next year:

• Of all the Ducks that played more than 15 games this year (regular season + playoffs), Penner had the worst even-strength goals-against average on the team, and he wasn't even facing the opposition's best scorers.


• On the power play, Penner was 7th on the team in minutes and 9th on the team in scoring. His PP points-per-hour were the lowest for any forward not on the Pahlsson line.


• In his NHL career (reg. season + playoffs), Penner has scored a total of 69 points over 135 games. Five other Ducks surpassed that points total last year alone.


• Despite the Ducks' success in the playoffs, it is interesting to note that Dustin Penner was shut out completely for the month of May (10 games).

All that said, I don't predict Burke very well and I don't think I'd crucify him if he decided to match. It certainly would stretch the budget thin, but despite his flaws, Penner finished second on the team in regular-season goals as a rookie, and certainly should improve his game in the coming years, especially if Bertuzzi can effectively tutor him. Next summer, re-signing Getzlaf and Perry will be a pain regardless of where Penner plays this year, but Burke has shown an ability to ditch salary capably when he's needed to.

If Burke does match, then Penner and Bertuzzi would represent the team's top two salaried forwards, which is strange since neither is naturally assured a top-line spot. I'd probably have to use this nonsense price-per-pound metric to make sense of the salary structure:

Player	Avg. Salary	Weight*	Price per pound
Todd Bertuzzi	$4,000,000	242 lbs.	$16,529
Dustin Penner	$4,250,000	243 lbs.	$17,490
Andy McDonald	$3,333,333	185 lbs.	$18,018
Chris Pronger	$6,250,000	220 lbs.	$28,409
Mathieu Schneider	$5,625,000	191 lbs.	$29,450
J.S. Giguere	$6,000,000	200 lbs.	$30,000
Scott Niedermayer	$6,750,000	200 lbs.	$33,750

* Player weights taken from NHL.com
So I dunno, my take is still that Burke should take the picks and let the Oilers pay Penner, but I don't feel as strongly about it as I did yesterday. All offseason, I have been excited to see the first instance where Pronger throws a snapshot through a Penner-and-Bertuzzi 485-pound double-screen, so maybe that's clouding my judgment some.

In any event, I still should poke some fun at the L.A. Times online edition, who added a silly picture-question to their Penner story:
Uh, nice proofreading, guys, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Francois Beauchemin stays...

Lupul Part 2? Lowe tries to give another young Duck a big raise

I really don't have time for a well-thought-out post here (stupid day job!) just yet--when I get some time later I'll add more to this post, but apparently the Nylanderless, Vanekless Oilers GM Kevin Lowe has offered RFA Dustin Penner a 5 year, $21.25M offer sheet. The Ducks will have the opportunity to match this, or let him go to Edmonton in exchange for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in 2008 (not to mention some salary cap cushion).

At first blush, I am tempted to agree with MetroGnome here:

"Were I Brian Burke, I'd take the draft picks and run. Penner is a nice player, but I'm not sure he's worth the money the Oilers are offering. not to mention those are going to be some decently placed picks in a strong draft year."

Penner of course was an awesome value last year, potting 29 regular season goals and 3 playoff goals all for the meager league-minimum price of $450,000. That said, he wasn't necessarily the strongest performer: over the course of the regular season and playoffs, he was on the ice for 48 even-strength goals-for and 44 even-strength goals-against. Compare that to Sleek-mancrush Sammy Pahlsson, who was playing immensely-more-difficult minutes, and was on the ice for 52 even-strength goals-for and 47 even-strength goals-against.

I dunno--this kind of reminds me of Joffrey Lupul: Brian Burke gets easy-minute production from an underpaid player, then allows Kevin Lowe to turn an underpaid Duck into an overpaid Oiler?

More to come later, but your reactions are certainly welcome in the comments. Also check out Mike Chen's take on his blog, the ever-ready James Mirtle, and always save time for Oiler blogs: Lowetide, Covered in Oil, Irreverent Oiler Fans, BDHS, and mc79hockey have posted reactions, and more will be coming I'm sure.

New Ducks blogger, and oh yeah, drafting is for suckers!

Duck fan Finny has started a new blog, Girl with a Puck, which already looks awesome. She’s already got me beat, in that she’s actually attended Duck practices, and has put together a compelling argument about why newcomer Ryan Shannon should make the club over enigmatic returnee Stan Chistov. Go check it out!

I’m not that worried about being replaced in the Califhockeysphere so much as I’m worried that she will put a restraining order on me once I start stalking her. What can I say? I’m a sucker for females who know what a forecheck is.

Ryan Shannon, by the way, appears to be a smaller version of Andy McDonald (if you can believe it) and has had a tremendous preseason, mostly playing on a line with Todd Marchant and Dustin Penner. Finny also correctly notes that when Selanne left last game to get his face stitched up, it was Shannon who picked up the top-line ice time. A strong vote of confidence from Coach Carlyle, no doubt.

Q. What do the following players all have in common, aside from a strong likelihood of being in the Ducks’ opening day roster? (Preseason stats included)

Andy McDonald, 4 GP, 4-4-8
Chris Kunitz, 4 GP, 2-0-2
Dustin Penner, 5 GP, 2-6-8
Ryan Shannon, 4 GP, 1-5-6

A. Surprisingly enough, none of these four forwards were ever NHL-drafted, but signed with Anaheim as undrafted free agents. This preseason, these four have combined for 9 goals and 15 assists in a combined 17 man-games played.

Anybody remember the last time a preseason cup favorite used 4 undrafted players among its top nine forwards?

(NOTE: Crap. Kings have made a big trade with the Hurricanes. More to come on that.)

More photos from SJ/ANA

Pronger in game action. I guess this guy is growing on me, though I still have to catch myself from saying "You suck!" everytime I mention his name. He was as good as advertised last night, although he did break two different sticks trying to shoot pucks on net.


Some good seats for a prime battle between Todd Fedoruk and Scott Parker. This was towards the end of the second period, so he went straight to the locker room. I didn't notice at the time, but does it look like Fedoruk got cut in the forehead in that first picture?


Generally, Vesa Toskala was not too excited to give up 5 goals in a little more than 7 minutes during the second period. A lot of looking to the heavens and cursing the porous defense. "Where's my boy Joey Thornton?"


Frenchie Beauchemin was definitely excited that he will continue to play with Scotty Niedermayer this year. One time in the 3rd period he really went for a vicious hipcheck but really got caught out of position. If we still had Vishdog, then we could leave this sort of aggressive defense to the experts.

Meanwhile Dustin Penner looked really good re-teaming with Todd Marchant. Penner tallied the first two goals and assisted on an improbable Marchant goal later in the period.


These are the best of what Damndaze sent me last night, but he took a lot more. Likely, though, these represent the better-quality pics, but I'll see if he doesn't have any more gems. Enjoy!

Uncle Teemu's Veteran Advice

Wait, I forget. Were we supposed to get more Disney or less Disney?

Oh well, I saw the picture and had to use it. I should note that I think Penner will still qualify as a rookie next year, but that is being somewhat technical.

You know, probably the best thing I liked about having Burke and Carlyle last year was how they managed the promotion of the kids (Getzlaf, Perry, and Penner) into the NHL club. They weren't rushed to the forefront, and in fact each spent enough time in Portland to amass at least 30 AHL points.

And on the big club, none of them were initially relied on, but gradually they began to assume more and more responsibility and see more situational ice time. The kids didn't have to deal with the pressures of team leadership, Calder ballots, or even their own on-ice welfare (thanks to another great coaching move with bruiser Todd Fedoruk), yet by the end they had become fairly reliable scorers, all now with three rounds NHL playoff experience. (Well, except for Perry, who sat out the Avlanche series nursing an injury doled out by teammate Sammy Pahlsson. But he would have played had Colorado won a game!)

Joffrey Lupul's departure means a scorer is needed, boys. Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald are going to need some scoring help.

Who's going to avoid the slump and step it up?

Who are you, Dustin Penner?

When projecting ahead to the coming season, a big question mark that affects a lot of teams is the possible emergence of young players. How well will they step into bigger roles? How can we project success or shortcomings?

For me, one of the bigger mysteries this coming year is the big brute Dustin Penner. Penner, interestingly enough, joins Andy McDonald and Chris Kunitz as players the Ducks signed who never got drafted, and like the other two, has shown signs of being a success. He’s built like a horse, has shown decent hands and offensive zone awareness, and hasn’t proven to be too much a liability on the backend, either.

Even more than the other rookies, however, Penner’s season was really an up-and-down one between big-league Anaheim and the AHL-affiliate Portland Pirates. Here’s the up-and-down story:

Dates	Team	Level	Season	Games	G-A-Pts	Pts/Gm
10/5/05 – 10/10/05	Anaheim	NHL	Regular	0	0-0-0	0.00
10/11/05 – 11/23/05	Portland	AHL	Regular	16	11-9-20	1.25
11/24/05 – 12/15/05	Anaheim	NHL	Regular	6	2-2-4	0.67
12/16/05 – 1/26/06	Portland	AHL	Regular	18	15-18-33	1.83
1/27/06 – 2/14/06	Anaheim	NHL	Regular	9	2-1-3	0.33
2/15/06 – 2/26/06	Portland	AHL	Regular	6	4-4-8	1.33
2/27/06 – 3/10/06	Anaheim	NHL	Regular	4	0-0-0	0.00
3/11/06 – 4/15/06	Portland	AHL	Regular	17	9-14-23	1.35
4/16/06 – 4/26/06	Portland	AHL	Playoffs	4	2-3-5	1.25
4/27/06 – 5/28/06	Anaheim	NHL	Playoffs	13	3-6-9	0.69
5/29/06 – 5/30/06	Portland	AHL	Playoffs	1	2-0-2	2.00
TOTAL	Portland	AHL	Regular	57	39-45-84	1.47
TOTAL	Portland	AHL	Playoffs	5	4-3-7	1.40
TOTAL	Anaheim	NHL	Regular	19	4-3-7	0.37
TOTAL	Anaheim	NHL	Playoffs	13	3-6-9	0.69

(Remember, four of Penner’s NHL playoff assists came from passing to the scoring machine Joffrey Lupul during the Colorado series.)

So what kind of expectations should be placed on Penner for this coming year, or more appropriately, what should those expectations be based on? His AHL success? The dozen-or-so NHL playoff games?

Duck fans on the message boards (bless their little hearts) seem to be quite optimistic as to next year’s Penner, penciling him in at top line and projecting lofty point totals. I guess I agree that Penner’s going to be ‘better’ next year with full-time NHL duty, but of all the Duck forwards not named Chistov, he’s the guy with the thinnest and most scattered previous-year stats to use as a basis.

I dunno, anyone care to make a guess how good Dustin should be this year? Or, if you’re as stumped as I am, maybe just a mention of what impresses you about the big kid.

Duckling (P)review

Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

who do you like amongst the kids and why?

Quick answer: In terms of what the Ducks needed, I think Beauchemin was the best kid in '05-'06. Long term, I'm guessing Getzlaf is the guy, although there should be some good competition.

I should say that I am very happy with how the kids were managed this year. They all avoided full seasons, which kept them absent from any rookie-of-the-year comparisons, which would be unfair any way. Their roles were never critical, yet they were given enough ice time to contribute.

At any rate, the Ducks have a very promising pipeline of talent (rated #1 at hockeysfutures as of April 5, 2006). This should give Burke a lot of flexibility in the coming offseason, even if some of this youth gets used as trade currency. Here are Sleek's quick takes on Ducks born in the 1980s (a somewhat incomplete list):

Vitaly Vishnevski (3/18/80)—Vish-dog really doesn’t belong on the list, but he does qualify age-wise. He has played 416 regular season games for the Ducks, and has shown more dependability each year. I think he is top-4 next year.

Francois Beauchemin (6/4/80)—Burke got a real steal all right, in fact I think at first Frenchie was a steadying influence for Scotty, although later in the season that balance was shifted. He’s got everything except footspeed, but his shot is wicked. He’s hardly been seen without Scotty by his side, so some judgment has to be reserved.

Ilya Bryzgalov (6/22/80)—This guy is probably our netminder sooner rather than later. He showed that he is reliable and rather unflappable in these playoffs. His two advantages over Jiggy are size and reflexes, his downside might be streakiness. He should definitely be an upgrade in shootouts, probably Giguere’s weakest event.

Travis Moen (4/6/82)—Moen wasn’t as bad as I thought originally. He’s not afraid to show what a mediocre fighter he is, and he’s certainly no offensive threat, but he is reliable at moving the puck and his wheels aren’t bad. I wasn’t afraid when Moen was on the ice, can’t say that for all these kids. Not a bad 'spare part'.

Dustin Penner (9/28/82)—This is a kid I still don’t know much about, other than the story of how he had a very late growth spurt, supposedly why this big body doesn’t quite know yet how to best use his large frame but has above-average hands. Based on what I have seen, I am very excited to see Penner develop as a Duck. He could be very good or somewhat good, but he won't be useless.

Stanislav Chistov (4/17/83)—I am not sure what the Ducks’ position is on Chistov, who spent last year playing in Russia. He is still Ducks’ property, and Burke indicated earlier in the year that he planned on bringing Chistov back. Cheesy is a small, shifty Russian winger, stylistically akin to Datsyuk. He did play in the NHL 2 seasons pre-lockout, including the SCF run.

Joffrey Lupul (9/23/83)—I am not entirely sure what to think of Lupul. For sure his shot is outstanding, but he is a bit prone to hooking calls and I’m not sure if he’s better as a threat on a checking line or on a scoring line. He should score more goals next year, but I’m not sure if it’s a few more or a lot more.

Ryan Getzlaf (5/10/85)—I think Getzlaf might be the prize player in all this, although there are many contenders. He has a great combination of size, speed, and vision that promises a lot of future production. With him and Perry, I am very happy how Carlyle managed their season; they were able to go down to the minors and play their way back together. I think he is a better pointman than Beauchemin, though it is close.

Corey Perry (5/16/85)—Perry’s still got some filling out to do before we know how good he is, but he is practically European in his stickhandling. He could score a lot, I think, given the right minutes. He’s a pest also, which I think can work for him. His problem is he instigates a bit more than he can back up, but that’s the liberty you get playing with Fedoruk, another good move by Carlyle.

Ladislav Smid (2/1/86)—Our 9th overall pick in the 2004 draft, this sizeable Czech defenseman appears to be adequate at a lot of things without being spectacular at any. We love those guys. Apparently he’s the reason Salei might leave as a UFA.

Bobby Ryan (3/17/87)—The guy picked 2nd behind Crosby in the 2005 draft. Not sure if he comes up next year or not, but this ‘power forward’ could become an option.
The Anaheim Ducks are eagerly awaiting his development.