Takes and trash talk from both ALL sides of the NHL's most obscure PATHETIC* rivalry

* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Kings Gameday: What Can Corey Perry Expect to Make?

Los Angeles Kings (Won 4 of their last 6! That's something, right? Hello?) vs. Anaheim Ducks (0-2 in last 2 games)

7:30 PST, FSN West

Corey Perry is the most prominent restricted free agent in California this off-season (unless San Jose fans are staying up at night worrying about Steve Bernier), so I thought it might be fun to look at how much he might make this off-season. It's way too early to do this (I'm sure Earl will have a much more in-depth look when the season's over), but I wanted to do it because I love shit like this. Probably the best way to go about it would be to find a like player under similar circumstances and see what kind of contract they signed. If only there was a player like that, anyone we could compare to Perry … quiet, Dustin Brown, I’m trying to think… dammit, Dustin, leave me alone! ...wait, come back!

It's like he's in space.

Dustin Brown and Corey Perry are fairly similar players. Don’t believe me? Why not? I wouldn't lie to you. Look, I’ll show you:

Both were drafted in 2003 (Brown 13th, Perry 28th)

Both have played in around 200 games (Brown played in 30 games before the lockout and only tallied 5 points; Perry didn’t make his debut until 2005)

Both have roughly the same point-per-game totals (Brown .5, Perry .6; if you remove the 30 games Brown played when he was 19, it hops up to .55)

Both have roughly the same progression in points from year to year [Brown went from 28 to 46 to 39 (in 48 games so far); Perry went from 26 to 44 to 45 (in 52 games so far)]

Both have roughly the same breakdown in points this season (Brown has 24 goals to 15 assists, Perry has 26 goals and 16 assists)

Both look humorous.

Dustin Brown looks like Spike from Land Before Time.

See, I told you they were similar. If you want to apologize, you can. Of course, there are a few differences. Most obviously, Brown is considered more of a power forward while Perry is characterized as a sniper. (Which seems weird to me, because Brown is a finesse-y power forward while Perry is a physical sniper; doesn't that make them the same?) Dustin Brown also plays on the penalty kill and leads the league in hits by 58 (the gap between him and the 2nd place guy equals the gap between the 2nd place guy and the guy in 23rd.) Plus, Dustin Brown is third in the league in penalty plus/minus behind Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar, while Perry has seen his penalty total rise every year. (He’s behind Brad Stuart in penalty plus/minus, if that tells you anything.) Plus, Dustin Brown was an academic player of the year in Juniors and is a great character guy while Corey Perry looks like the dickhead from Salute Your Shorts and is the biggest diver in hockey. But still, they’re pretty similar.

I think Perry should grow his hair like that.

The thing is, most projections for Perry’s salary predict he’ll get a $4 million/year (or more) contract this off-season. I don’t think it’ll be that high. Dustin Brown signed for an average of $3.175 million over 6 years; Perry will get more than that because by all accounts Brown took a discount and Perry has an All-Star selection and Stanley Cup under his belt. But Brian Burke is on record as saying that Ryan Getzlaf is better than Corey Perry and Dustin Penner combined, so I think he’ll be arguing that most of Perry’s value derives from his constant pairing with Getzlaf.

My prediction: I think we’re looking at a 3 or 4-year deal for around $3.5 million a year. That’ll put him below Milan Michalek and Dustin Penner, but above Brown. If he gets more than that I’ll be very disappointed in Brian Burke. Either that, or Perry goes to arbitration and gets dicked over like Mike Cammalleri did. Or, hilariously, someone offers him an offer sheet and the Ducks get fucked for the 2nd year in a row. Please oh please let it be that last one.

Game Prediction: I have a hunch that this is one of those games where the Kings inexplicably play great. Kings win, 4-2. Goals by O’Sullivan, Visnovsky, Moulson, and an empty netter by Brown. (This pretty much guarantees a 7-0 loss.)


Earl Sleek said...

I think we’re looking at a 3 or 4-year deal for around $3.5 million a year.

I would love this deal, and I suspect it's not going to be too far different in dollars or years. In his Anaheim tenure, Burke has only signed one player for longer than four years (Getzlaf), so I don't see any Ovechkin-Richards nonsense coming.

Still, I do get a bit worried that the dollars may climb, just by some of the idiot GMs who love spending money. If that's the case, either Burke's going to have to use all his Irish charm (get Perry drunk) or take the kid to arbitration (and get the arbiter drunk). I don't see offer sheets as a possibility in this case.

The real key might be convincing Perry that he needs Anaheim. (a) compared to most of the lockerroom, Perry's a pretty nice guy (no criminal record), and thus won't be scrutinized or criticized to any great degree for his antics. (b) If he leaves Anaheim, Pronger will bury him.

I hope Perry doesn't leave the Ducks; I love being in the minority who doesn't hate his guts.

Mike in OC said...

Great read Rudy. Love the pic.
Lets not forget the Kunitz contract, because I think we agree Perry is better the Kunitz, so it might make sense to land somwhere between Kunitz & Getlaf's contract.

Based on that logic, it would start around 4 mil and escalate to 4.5 ish over 4 years.

Kunitz 4 years: 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.0

Peryy: somwhere in between these two?

Getzlaf: 5 years 4.0, 5.125, 5.125, 5.75, 6.125

RudyKelly said...

Well, Kunitz would have been an unrestricted free agent, which changes things a little. I think Burke has Perry in a corner: Corey would make less than $3 million in arbitration and the Ducks would just match an offer sheet. That pretty much leaves Burke in the driver's seat. I think Burke realizes, unlike most GMs, that he is actually in control of this situation.

Bryan said...

It all depends on what Lowe has to say about all of it. But I agree with Sleek that it will be in the 4-4.5 mil range, closer to 4.5.

Earl Sleek said...

I actually think K. Lowe is the last person to get concerned about. For one, wasn't there some clause (pardon if I'm making this up) that a team only can make two offer sheet bids? He's used his up on Vanek (failed) and Penner (success!). Also, Lowe's still got his money tied up in Penner and Souray--he won't be the free-spender he was last summer.

Even if that's not true, however, Burke opted not to take Penner to arbitration last year, which exposed him to offer sheet availability. I think that he expected too much to be awarded (and he has been quoted as saying he didn't know he had the option -- dubious). Burke's a year smarter now, and I'm sure hates the offer sheet enough that if things go sour with Perry negotiations, they will be going to arbitration (and thus nobody will be able to make an offer sheet bid). There won't be any offer sheet dictating this contract, that's a Sleek-thinking-through-Burke promise.

RudyKelly said...

Goddammit, shut the fuck up, Lasorda. Does anyone have a bat they can hit him with?

RudyKelly said...

And we get it, bunting is a lost art, just like the two-pad stack and the mid-range jumper. You know why they're a lost art? BECAUSE THEY'RE FUCKING STUPID AND NOT VALUABLE IN TODAY'S GAME! Jesus.

Anonymous said...

Bunting is still valuable in baseball. But I'd rather hear about that during a baseball game, when there are plenty of long pauses, rather than during two of the kings goals. In a hockey game. Whoever thinks its a good idea to let people guest commentate during second periods should have to drink afterbirth. And I don't want to listen to Cuba Gooding or Jason Reitman either.