Los Angeles Kings (Won 4 of their last 6! That's something, right? Hello?) vs. Anaheim Ducks (0-2 in last 2 games)
7:30 PST, FSN West
Corey Perry is the most prominent restricted free agent in California this off-season (unless San Jose fans are staying up at night worrying about Steve Bernier), so I thought it might be fun to look at how much he might make this off-season. It's way too early to do this (I'm sure Earl will have a much more in-depth look when the season's over), but I wanted to do it because I love shit like this. Probably the best way to go about it would be to find a like player under similar circumstances and see what kind of contract they signed. If only there was a player like that, anyone we could compare to Perry … quiet, Dustin Brown, I’m trying to think… dammit, Dustin, leave me alone! ...wait, come back!
Both were drafted in 2003 (Brown 13th, Perry 28th)
Both have played in around 200 games (Brown played in 30 games before the lockout and only tallied 5 points; Perry didn’t make his debut until 2005)
Both have roughly the same point-per-game totals (Brown .5, Perry .6; if you remove the 30 games Brown played when he was 19, it hops up to .55)
Both have roughly the same progression in points from year to year [Brown went from 28 to 46 to 39 (in 48 games so far); Perry went from 26 to 44 to 45 (in 52 games so far)]
Both have roughly the same breakdown in points this season (Brown has 24 goals to 15 assists, Perry has 26 goals and 16 assists)
Both look humorous.
The thing is, most projections for Perry’s salary predict he’ll get a $4 million/year (or more) contract this off-season. I don’t think it’ll be that high. Dustin Brown signed for an average of $3.175 million over 6 years; Perry will get more than that because by all accounts Brown took a discount and Perry has an All-Star selection and Stanley Cup under his belt. But Brian Burke is on record as saying that Ryan Getzlaf is better than Corey Perry and Dustin Penner combined, so I think he’ll be arguing that most of Perry’s value derives from his constant pairing with Getzlaf.
My prediction: I think we’re looking at a 3 or 4-year deal for around $3.5 million a year. That’ll put him below Milan Michalek and Dustin Penner, but above Brown. If he gets more than that I’ll be very disappointed in Brian Burke. Either that, or Perry goes to arbitration and gets dicked over like Mike Cammalleri did. Or, hilariously, someone offers him an offer sheet and the Ducks get fucked for the 2nd year in a row. Please oh please let it be that last one.
Game Prediction: I have a hunch that this is one of those games where the Kings inexplicably play great. Kings win, 4-2. Goals by O’Sullivan, Visnovsky, Moulson, and an empty netter by Brown. (This pretty much guarantees a 7-0 loss.)