Takes and trash talk from both ALL sides of the NHL's most obscure PATHETIC* rivalry

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Friday, May 12, 2006

Playing the odds

What are the chances we'll actually see the Battle of California in the Western Conference finals?

Well, with the Anaheim Ducks advancing, Tyler at mc79hockey.com says there's a 68 per cent chance San Jose will join them in Round 3. Colby Cosh's big spreadsheet puts the odds at 61.9 per cent.

A win tonight over the Oilers, and that jumps considerably. A loss, and we're back into that muddled 50/50 range.

It's really, literally, all up to the Sharks now.

5 comments:

Jason Mandell said...

if the Oilers win tonight, i don't see how we're back in the 50/50 range. First of all the Sharks will have 2 out of 3 at home. Second, i think it's farly obvious that the Sharks have the better, deeper team overall. It took everything the Oilers could muster in Game 3 and it still required 3 OT's to win (and the Sharks are back to a full squad tonight with Michalek returning after that should-have-been-suspended cheap shot from Raffi Torres). Clearly that doesn't mean a win, but you've got to give a heavy advantage to the Sharks today, and still a decent one should they lose again tonight.

Regardless, the Ducks look scary for anyone to face right now. If the Sharks/Oilers go 7 games, they will seem to have little shot to advance to the finals.

Earl Sleek said...

If the Sharks/Oilers go 7 games, they will seem to have little shot to advance to the finals.

Like the Ducks had no shot in round 2 since Calgary had 'worn them out'?

In the Ducks' short playoff history, the lesson is that too much time off is a bad thing. Rest is nice but rust is bad. When we finally played NJ in '03 after a week-and-a-half of lollygagging, it took us three games to find the net. NJ, incidentally, had just come off a game seven victory against Ottawa.

One advantage this year might be Bryzgalov, though. He has spent a lot of time sitting this year, and is probably used to starting 'cold'.

James Mirtle said...

I think the momentum of winning two in a row alone would bode well for the Oilers.

Still, even if we're not in 50/50 territory, it'll be awfully close. My guess is both those oddsmakers will have it in the 55/45 range if the series goes to 2-2.

jon said...

The argument that it took the Oilers almost 6 periods of "everything they've got" to beat the Sharks is no longer valid. I'd say the odds are back close to 50/50 now, but I wouldn't be so sure for whom. I'm smiling a bit, thinking that the Oilers are wearing down the Sharks mentally and physically. I always thought of Joe Thornton as being a bit fragic psychologically, here's hoping that's the case.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Jon. If it took the Oil 6 periods of everything they got hockey to down the Sharks, the same could be said about the first two games of the series... where the Sharks dominated play yet only managed to squeak out two 2-1 wins.