Nabby says, "It's not fair!"
Ever notice how Evgeni Nabokov looks really pissed off when he does interviews these days? Well, it's not just the goal-support issue (Nabby gets about 2 goals for each game, Vesa Toskala gets almost 4.5), it's the schedule. Sure, Ron Wilson probably thinks it's fair just to alternate Nabokov and Toskala game by game, but look at the opponents in here:
Nabokov's Schedule
*NY Islanders
Edmonton
Dallas
Minnesota
Detroit
Tampa
NY Rangers
Minnesota
*Phoenix
Colorado
Anaheim
NJ Devils
Minnesota
Dallas
Nashville
Toskala's Schedule
*St. Louis
Calgary
Vancouver
*Columbus
Nashville
*Florida
Pittsburgh
*LA
*Phoenix
*LA
*Philadelphia
*LA
*St. Louis
Detroit
Colorado
*Phoenix
I've put an asterik next to each team that's not within sniffing distance of .500 or better (the only exception is the Islanders since Toskala played them before Ted Nolan spun straw into gold). So by my account, Toskala's got 10 fairly easy opponents while Nabokov's only had, um, 2.
Not quite fair, huh? In terms of stats, the two are freakishly identical. As of today, they both have 2.04 GAA and a save percentage that is within one 1000th of each other (.924 for Nabby vs .925 for Toskala). But if you factor in the competition and goal support in there, I'd say that Nabokov's having an even better season than Toskala.
Food for thought when we enter the post-Christmas trade rumor silly season.
5 comments:
I hope it all balances out, because I have Nabs plugging away on my fantasy team. He was pretty damn good last night, and according to yahoo!:
The San Jose goaltender has allowed a goal or fewer his last five starts, a span in which he is 4-1 with a 0.81 goals-against average and .964 save percentage
I think the more telling thing about that stat is that the sharks managed to lose a game in which they were scored on once. I believe it was against the Stars, though.
That’s interesting, Mike.
For kicks, I took a look at the SJ goaltender schedule, and tried to determine who’s getting the “tough” games. To define “tough”, I’m just looking at home or road records of opponents, and seeing who’s playing situations where the opponent has a current .600 win percentage or better.
Here’s the findings (opponent H or R win percentage in parentheses):
Toskala has played “tough” opponents in 4 of his 17 appearances (24%). Those are @CGY (.800), vs.DET (.607), @NSH (.773), and @DET (.700). San Jose has won all 4 of Toskala’s “tough” starts.
Nabokov has played “tough” opponents in 8 of his 16 appearances (50%). Those are vs.NYI (.607), @EDM (.719), @DET (.700), vs.NYR (.633), @ANA (.789), @MIN (.781), @DAL (.733), and vs.NSH (.667). San Jose has only won 3 out of 8 of Nabokov’s “tough” starts.
All in all, don’t know what it all means, but yeah, definitely Nabokov’s getting the short end of the stick in terms of favorable opposition.
As an aside, I am impressed that Wilson has stuck to the alternating system so stringently. I knew that generally the SJ goalies were being alternated, but not to such a stubborn degree.
It was pretty funny watching Nabby in one of the first post game interviews of the "star of the game". I thought he was going to bite the new guys head off.
I don't know if he just is uncomfortable with the press, or just playing angry this year.
Any way, the platooning system is working very well so far.
Interesting post. I agree that Nabby is having a better season. I do some more stats analysis on Nabby's 'tough' opponents vs. Toskala's 'tough' opponents here:
http://shavedice.blogspot.com/
Nice site, I threw it up on the sidebar.
BTW, I'm not really saying much about Toskala getting the wins; that's probably just luck. My point was the same as yours--Nabby's shouldering the heavier load.
Still, the Sharks are a daunting team, regardless of who's in net.
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