Takes and trash talk from both ALL sides of the NHL's most obscure PATHETIC* rivalry

* Thanks, Kevin Lowe!

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Off for the weekend

I’m headin’ off to Detroit, MI, in the morning to attend a cousin’s wedding. Won’t be back until Monday night.

I’ve never been to Detroit, but I understand it’s a much cleaner city now, ever since Anaheim gave it a clean sweep in 2003.

ZING!
A couple fun facts about that sweep:

  • Detroit led the league in goal-scoring that year and hadn’t lost three games in a row all season.
  • J.S. Giguere was under contract that season for a meager $900,000. Of the players on Detroit's playoff roster, only C Pavel Datsyuk, LW Henrik Zetterberg, and D Dmitri Bykov made less that year.
  • Petr Sykora, the Ducks’ leading goal scorer that year, didn’t score in the series. The Ducks didn’t get a special teams goal, nor a goal from its defensemen.
  • In all, 10 Ducks had their first postseason experience in that series (Giguere, Chistov, Krog, Pahlsson, Chouinard, Severson, Kjellberg, Sauer, Havelid, and Vishnevski). Arguably, CuJo needed to concentrate more on the playoff rookies than those who had played before. The players with previous experience scored 5 goals on 90 shots. The players with no playoff experience: 5 goals on 30 shots. Add to that the heroics of Giguere, and it was quite a rookie-led upset.
  • The Ducks have more playoff sweeps since 2003 than the rest of the league combined (Anaheim 3, Tampa Bay 1, New Jersey 1).
Well, I’d better stop there, or my number might get retired in Detroit before Yzerman’s does.

Have a good weekend, everybody!

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Goal production and prevention: Pronger and Niedermayer

In my last post about correlated ice time, I showed how tracking ‘plus-minus’ events by ice time can show how players benefit by playing with certain teammates, using even-strength stats for Teemu Selanne and Joffrey Lupul as examples. Note that all numbers cited are provided courtesy of JavaGeek and his wizard machinery.

Now it’s time to turn our gaze to that $13 million duo on the blueline, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. This time, rather than use individual player performances, I’m just going to look at how each team fared with or without their key Norris guy. To do this, I looked at the collective experience of the netminders, which has a slight wrinkle in that it includes empty-net goals for and excludes empty-net goals against (I think). Whatever, shouldn’t be that distortive.

EVEN STRENGTH:
-Chris Pronger played 36% of Edmonton’s ES minutes, where the Oilers got 33% of their ES goals-for and 28% of their ES goals-against.
-Scott Niedermayer played 34% of Anaheim’s ES minutes, where the Mighty Ducks got 40% of their ES goals-for and 38% of their ES goals-against.
Pronger, surprisingly enough, was not a strong goal producer at even-strength. In fact, the Oilers scored even-strength goals at a higher rate when Pronger was off the ice than when he was on. However, he was a big factor in preventing even-strength goals-against. The combination of these effects is that he was a low-event even-strength player, sort of a wet blanket.

Scott Niedermayer, on the other hand, appears to be much more of a high-event even-strength player. Anaheim’s goals-for and goals-against had higher rates while the captain was on the ice.

Note that none of these percentage-stats inherently indicate that either of these players have positive ‘plus-minus’ numbers (though they both did); they are merely metrics relative to the performance of the entire team.

I find it highly interesting that Pronger was not a strong goal-producer and Niedermayer was not a strong goal-preventer, though both affected results on the opposite end of the ice to compensate. I wonder what the result will be when paired up this coming year.
SHORTHANDED:
-Chris Pronger played 54% of Edmonton’s SH minutes, where the Oilers allowed 48% of their PPG against.
-Scott Niedermayer played 41% of Anaheim’s SH minutes, where the Mighty Ducks allowed 45% of their PPG against.
This sort of re-emphasizes the fact that Pronger is strong defensively while Niedermayer is not. Goal production is not considered here, but I’m not sure that would help Scotty out too much.
POWER PLAY:
-Chris Pronger played 67% of Edmonton’s PP minutes, where the Oilers scored 81% of their PPG.
-Scott Niedermayer played 69% of Anaheim’s PP minutes, where the Mighty Ducks scored 82% of their PPG.
Both show really strong numbers here. Though this somewhat is an indication of being put out on the ice with the best players, at least this shows the ability to put the puck in the net when called upon.

BOTTOM LINE:

I don’t know. There’s no good way to combine these numbers to get a sense how they would play together, but the numbers do suggest that Carlyle should lean more on Pronger for the PK and leave Scott’s high-event hijinks for ES and PP situations. (That’s probably the intuitive answer anyway.)

Still, I look very forward to seeing how the combined ice time of these two Norris guys will pan out this coming year (which is probably dependent on JG’s continued stat-reporting or my suddenly-improved query skills).

How often will they pair up, and how will the combination produce (and prevent)? Will those moments be worth $13 M?

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Faulty logic prevents Ducks from being preseason favorite

I got some pushback last week for posting about The Hockey News feeding Canada's delusions, but hockey's version of Mad Magazine has done it again.

I got my 2006-07 THN Yearbook in the mail the other day, and was quite startled to learn that this reputible publication had selected the Anaheim Ducks to secure top seed in the Western Conference. Right here on page 61, if you're following from home:Fortunately, I managed to read as far as the third paragraph:Holy smokes I must have been really drunk! I completely missed out on games six and seven!

Well, Mr. Mike Brophy, thanks for putting that glaring error right next to your little tag-photo, otherwise that dunce-cap addition would have been tougher to pull off.

Uncle Teemu's Veteran Advice

Wait, I forget. Were we supposed to get more Disney or less Disney?

Oh well, I saw the picture and had to use it. I should note that I think Penner will still qualify as a rookie next year, but that is being somewhat technical.

You know, probably the best thing I liked about having Burke and Carlyle last year was how they managed the promotion of the kids (Getzlaf, Perry, and Penner) into the NHL club. They weren't rushed to the forefront, and in fact each spent enough time in Portland to amass at least 30 AHL points.

And on the big club, none of them were initially relied on, but gradually they began to assume more and more responsibility and see more situational ice time. The kids didn't have to deal with the pressures of team leadership, Calder ballots, or even their own on-ice welfare (thanks to another great coaching move with bruiser Todd Fedoruk), yet by the end they had become fairly reliable scorers, all now with three rounds NHL playoff experience. (Well, except for Perry, who sat out the Avlanche series nursing an injury doled out by teammate Sammy Pahlsson. But he would have played had Colorado won a game!)

Joffrey Lupul's departure means a scorer is needed, boys. Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald are going to need some scoring help.

Who's going to avoid the slump and step it up?

Monday, August 28, 2006

Playoff Goalie Debuts

Wow. This table, while offering nothing than oversimplified stats, is pretty frickin’ unreal. Who needs playoff-tested netminders when you can get first-time performances like this?

Playoff Stats

W-LGAASv%

Giguere ‘03

15-6

1.62

.946

Other Goalies ‘03

2.21

.914

Bryzgalov ‘06

6-4

1.46

.944

Other Goalies ‘06

2.73

.904


A few brag-worthy notes:

  • Cam Ward (2.14 GAA, .920 Sv%), Mr. Conn Smythe, would have to stop 253 straight shots over more than 615 minutes to improve enough to match Breezy’s gaudy playoff numbers.
  • J.S. Giguere’s numbers are somewhat tainted by a mediocre cup finals. Before the Tonight Show appearance and the ridiculous ten days off, J.S. was sporting a nice 1.22 GAA and a .960 Sv%. In the 12 wins to that point, Giguere was first star of the game 9 times and second star twice.
  • Many might be critical of Giguere’s stats in that involved a one-goal sweep of the pre-Demitra Wild. Well, here is a statistic I threw together back on May 13, 2003, two games into Giguere’s three-shutout streak:

"Man, it's got to be tough transitioning from Cloutier to Giguere. Giguere has stopped 63 Wild shots, and the Wild are now 0-8 on the powerplay over the two games.

On the last 63 shots the Wild took on Vancouver, they scored 15 goals. On their last 8 powerplays against Vancouver, they scored 4 times."

  • Of course, Bryzgalov does have the shutout streak (249:15) over Giguere (217:54), but I always lose track after 150 minutes anyway.
  • Then again, Giguere’s 2003 year also involved the still-continuing OT streak, which then stood at 9-0, 95 saves over 168:27. (Against Calgary this spring he added one win and a saveless 1:36.)
So yes, we have been really fortunate on these first-time playoff goalies.

Really, I have three questions:
Are we re-signing Bryzgalov in time for camp?

If so, which goaltender are we going to trade, and what are we going to get in return?
If not, could this be Michael Leighton’s breakout playoff year?

Shark Week bites back

In lieu of my 2,500 word essay on the resigning of minor-league defenseman Bruno St. Jacques, I’m deferring to PJ over at Sharkspage who is running a series of Shark Week posts, including a year-in-review and a look at hockey in the golden state. I’m sure more is coming throughout the week, but in today’s post PJ issued a nice northerly-directed challenge:

"I believe I can accurately sum up the crux of this Hockey News issue and this blog post as a firm challenge directed by California at the province of Alberta. We Californians may not know what a province is, we may not paint ourselves blue and red and hang from streetlights in Mexican wrestling masks after a single playoff win, but we can guarantee that the Stanley Cup will be visiting here before stepping foot on Albertan soil again."
Beware of those Sharks and their vicious bite. Ouch.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Anaheim’s sticky prospect situation

(Author's note: I am no good when it comes to monitoring prospects, so all I’m doing in this post is regurgitating information found on message boards. If you want to know more about Anaheim's prospects, check out HF's top-20 list or Skate the Plank, a well-connected blog with the Portland Pirates.)

Anaheim's "other" development team
Aside from Anaheim’s AHL-affiliate Portland Pirates, a couple of Duck prospect players will be pulling a reverse-Malkin in Russia. Forward Zenon Konopka and defenseman Maxim Kondratiev have signed and committed to play next year with Togliatta Lada, which is the hometown team of Kondratiev.

Both these players stood a reasonable chance of cracking the Anaheim lineup this year, but found better money overseas.

Togliatta Lada is also the hometown team of playoff phenom Ilya Bryzgalov, and rumors persist that if Breezy cannot agree to a deal with Burke, then he too will join the Russian club.

(Props to Allducks.com and Sidearm Delivery for the photos.)

The 50 Standard Player Contract (SPC) Limit
One reason why this multi-Russian defection is somewhat beneficial to Burke, however, comes from the fact that Anaheim has been awfully aggressive when it comes to pursuing minor-league talent, nearing the new CBA's 50-SPC limit (Article I, definition of "Reserve List"):

A club may have on its Reserve List, at any one time, not more than 90 Players, which shall include the following:
(a) Not more than 50 Players signed to an SPC and not less than 24 Players and 3 goalkeepers under an SPC. Age 18 and age 19 Players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit.
Any Club violating this provision shall be liable to loss of draft choices as determined by the Commissioner.
Per HF staff writer Kevin Forbes in this thread, here are the 49 SPCs Anaheim already has committed to for 06-07, notably without Bryzgalov:

Goalies: Jean-Sebastien Giguere, David McKee, Mike Wall, Nathan Marsters, Michael Leighton
D-men: Sean O´Donnell, Francois Beauchemin, Scott Niedermayer, Joe DiPenta, Chris Pronger, Brett Skinner, Nathan Saunders, Brett Festerling, Aaron Rome, Clay Wilson, Shane O´Brien, Kent Huskins, Brian Salcido, Ian Moran, Jordan Smith, Bruno St. Jacques
Centers: Todd Marchant, Rob Niedermayer, Ryan Getzlaf, Samuel Påhlsson, Andy McDonald, Ryan Shannon, Ryan Carter, Travis Green
Forwards: Corey Perry, Shane Hynes, Drew Miller, Björn Melin, Teemu Selänne, Travis Moen, Bobby Ryan, Todd Fedoruk, Dustin Penner, Tim Brent, Curtis Glencross, Stanislav Chistov, Colby Genoway, Shawn Thornton, Petteri Wirtanen, Pierre Parenteau, Chris Kunitz, Trevor Gillies, Geoff Peters, Karl Stewart

49 depending on Jordan Smith*. 48 if Bobby Ryan returns to Junior (he's the only one who can). I believe Festerling can go back to junior (he's 20 now with a March birthday), but because he is over the age of 20, he still counts as a contract.

In short, there's still wiggle room to sign Bryz, but the Ducks organization certainly has a lot of players under contract.

* Jordan Smith may not qualify because of injury.

At any rate, I find it interesting to see what Burke is really up to, having nearly maxed-out his CBA-allotted SPC room with a lot of low-cost players.

Are we trying to find and/or produce the cheap talent necessary to stay competitive in the years to come? Is this Burke's tactic to build around two franchise defensemen pulling in a combined $13 M? Are low-cost serviceable players becoming the new 'draft pick' when it comes to trades?

Any other theories as to what Burke may be up to?

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Drinky post: The Lockout

(Author’s note: I would do more drinky posts, but my alcohol-intake is highly correlated with the NHL schedule. In the meantime, I’ve been meaning to post something about the lockout for a while, but haven’t quite been get the words together. Solution? Johnny Walker and a blank screen. I am, in a way, re-writing a lot of this.)

A lot of hockey blog posts I read lately start with something like “Well, since nothing happened AGAIN, here’s something to pass the time.” Now I appreciate web nonsense and general impatience as much as the next guy, but how the heck did we get so oblivious? Are we seriously forgetting that we just went through a bloody lockout? A year of NHL cancelled to us?

(Now I don’t know how things were in other parts of the NHL-starved world, but here in L.A. that meant we were cut off. Maybe twice a month there would be a rerun NCAA hockey game that we’d catch on the DVR, but whatever hockey was going on during the lockout year, it wasn’t being televised in Southern California.)

And as much as the lockout was a struggle between owners and players, really it was a struggle between professional sports and paying fans. A motherfucking year off. Can you imagine it?

Some blame the players for being such greedy bastards and failing to comply with the owners’ reported financial needs. Others blame the owners for being such greedy bastards and trying to legislate their own stupidity. And yes, all that is fair. Everyone involved was a greedy bastard and deserves a winter in hell.

But what about us, the fans? Where is our share of the responsibility?

When I’m at a restaurant, and at the table next to me there are children making a ruckus, I generally don’t hold a grudge against the kids themselves; rather I save my icy stares for the negligent parent(s) who allow(s) their offspring to behave in such a rude and distasteful manner. The fact that these kids need to be whacked isn’t any fault either child (“…but he started it!”); rather the fault lies with the parent/guardian that couldn’t properly discipline their infant monsters.

Well, folks, I am that negligent parent. I let my league take a whole motherfucking year off to settle some off-ice dispute, and instead of disciplining that league, I coddled these brats. Like a chain smoker on an international flight, I itched so bad for hockey that I ran back to the turnstiles, continued to feed this league my money, and half-pretended this whole thing was behind us.

The NHL (and all its self-promoting hoo-ha) tell us that attendance is up to record numbers. Hockey fans like me apparently are pitifully forgiving and painfully obedient. We love the NHL, even when it decides it didn’t love us last year.

But what, really, have we taught the league and its players, who notoriously would rather listen to our wallets than our blogs? That it is OK to misbehave and sit at a negotiating table for a year and a half while we sit around and (insert lockout pastime here)?!!

Now I don’t want to be a doom-and-gloomer (that’s my hero Tom B.!), but there are signs already that neither side quite got what they were bargaining for in this new CBA. So what happens when it expires? What happens when new owners and new players decide on a new agreement to meet new expectations?

Have we taught these stupid kids anything?

“Hey, take a year off, you two. Have a jerkfest with your lawyers and split up your pie; we’ll be here when you get back.”
You know, I really hope it works out for the NHL. I hope they can make tons of money and each and every greedy bastard can go home happy. But lately I'm worried...

I love the sport but not the business, and the year the league misbehaved and prioritized business over sport, I was negligent in my punishment. I, the NHL's lenient parent, gave the league its money (if not more!) and my precious wallet pretended the whole thing never happened.

Hopefully it won’t come to this again, dumbshits. Make your damn deal next time and play your hockey. No more motherfucking years off.

Love,

Sleekster

(Next drinky post: Why I hate new rules!)

Moments in history: Luc Robitaille silences a drunk Earl Sleek

Well, in BoC news, the L.A. Kings have decided to retire good ol’ #20 for fan favorite Luc Robitaille on January 20th, in a game against the Phoenix Coyotes. This probably paves the way for Rob Blake to get his #4 up in the rafters in a few years also, in a little section they’ll call “Guys who we sent to cup-winning teams”.

Any way, flash back with me to November 9, 2001, back when Robitaille was a cupless wonder just getting started on his Red Wings career. I secured 2nd row seats to the Detroit-Anaheim game, invited some of my buddies (including one huge Detroit fan and one huge L.A. fan), and we proceeded to do our usual custom of pre-game drinking until we felt properly obnoxious. And boy, were we ready by game time.

Now the 2nd row can be a real treat for a fan who’s done his prerequisite drinking, because you have the ability to yell directly at a player skating by with the confidence that he can hear you. Don’t get me wrong; just because I heckle doesn’t mean that I don’t respect. Luc is a fantastic sniper who fashioned an incredible career and is probably in my top-50 favorite NHLers of all time; he just happened to be in the wrong building that day.

For this particular game, I was fixated on the fact that Lucky Luc’s next goal would be his 600th career goal. Every time he would skate nearby, I would stand up and yell, “Hey Luc! Five-ninety-nine!” Even my section got into it, to the point we would get looks from passing Red Wings, always a nice treat.

Well, before long, Luc had quite enough of me and my antics. He shoved a puck past J.S. Giguere on a 1st period power play and just like that, I was out of yelling ammunition. Luc, of course, got his proper ovation, and it even turned out to be the only goal of a 1-0 game, with the Ducks managing a paltry 19 shots at Hasek*.

So that’s how I saw a historical moment for Lucky Luc, and hey, I even tell myself that I was a part of making it happen. Congratulations, Mr. Robitaille, on one hell of a career. Glad I could be there for one of the big moments.

* A good source for hockey boxscores (since Sept. 1997) is here.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Who are you, Dustin Penner?

When projecting ahead to the coming season, a big question mark that affects a lot of teams is the possible emergence of young players. How well will they step into bigger roles? How can we project success or shortcomings?

For me, one of the bigger mysteries this coming year is the big brute Dustin Penner. Penner, interestingly enough, joins Andy McDonald and Chris Kunitz as players the Ducks signed who never got drafted, and like the other two, has shown signs of being a success. He’s built like a horse, has shown decent hands and offensive zone awareness, and hasn’t proven to be too much a liability on the backend, either.

Even more than the other rookies, however, Penner’s season was really an up-and-down one between big-league Anaheim and the AHL-affiliate Portland Pirates. Here’s the up-and-down story:

Dates

TeamLevelSeasonGamesG-A-PtsPts/Gm

10/5/05 – 10/10/05

Anaheim

NHL

Regular

0

0-0-0

0.00

10/11/05 – 11/23/05

Portland

AHL

Regular

16

11-9-20

1.25

11/24/05 – 12/15/05

Anaheim

NHL

Regular

6

2-2-4

0.67

12/16/05 – 1/26/06

Portland

AHL

Regular

18

15-18-33

1.83

1/27/06 – 2/14/06

Anaheim

NHL

Regular

9

2-1-3

0.33

2/15/06 – 2/26/06

Portland

AHL

Regular

6

4-4-8

1.33

2/27/06 – 3/10/06

Anaheim

NHL

Regular

4

0-0-0

0.00

3/11/06 – 4/15/06

Portland

AHL

Regular

17

9-14-23

1.35

4/16/06 – 4/26/06

Portland

AHL

Playoffs

4

2-3-5

1.25

4/27/06 – 5/28/06

Anaheim

NHL

Playoffs

13

3-6-9

0.69

5/29/06 – 5/30/06

Portland

AHL

Playoffs

1

2-0-2

2.00

TOTAL

Portland

AHL

Regular

57

39-45-84

1.47

TOTAL

Portland

AHL

Playoffs

5

4-3-7

1.40

TOTAL

Anaheim

NHL

Regular

19

4-3-7

0.37

TOTAL

Anaheim

NHL

Playoffs

13

3-6-9

0.69

(Remember, four of Penner’s NHL playoff assists came from passing to the scoring machine Joffrey Lupul during the Colorado series.)

So what kind of expectations should be placed on Penner for this coming year, or more appropriately, what should those expectations be based on? His AHL success? The dozen-or-so NHL playoff games?

Duck fans on the message boards (bless their little hearts) seem to be quite optimistic as to next year’s Penner, penciling him in at top line and projecting lofty point totals. I guess I agree that Penner’s going to be ‘better’ next year with full-time NHL duty, but of all the Duck forwards not named Chistov, he’s the guy with the thinnest and most scattered previous-year stats to use as a basis.

I dunno, anyone care to make a guess how good Dustin should be this year? Or, if you’re as stumped as I am, maybe just a mention of what impresses you about the big kid.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

What happened to the L.A. Kings? An introductory look

For any of you BoC site enthusiasts who are clamoring for more James O’Brien (count me as one of them), he shot me a quick e-mail today:

“I'm the editor of the newspaper at my college this fall, which sits aside Garth Snow as GM and the Kings signing Jeremy Roenick in the Mount Rushmore of bad decisions. Chances are, my main contributions will be on weekends and will be of the more silly variety. After mid-December, however, I should be pretty good to go. If I'm still alive that is.”

No worries, O’B! This ship has steered well in the past without competent leadership; no need to kill yourself over Kings coverage.

However, is there reason to kill yourself over the actual Kings? Let’s take a look at the following graph, which plots how the BoC teams scored and got scored on in 20-game segments:

(Click to enlarge)

Generally, we can see that Anaheim was able to increase its goal-scoring as the season moved along without affecting its goals-against. San Jose was able to improve both its goals-for and goals-against, although the offensive output shows some fluctuation. Both these CA teams were able to use these turnarounds to leapfrog into the playoff picture by the end of the year (and make some noise in the playoffs also).

Los Angeles, on the other hand, is a story about a team falling apart.

20 games into the season, L.A. was tied for 3rd in the western conference, and they were rolling offensively and defensively. As the season moved along, however, their ability to score got worse and worse, and their defensive puck ability worsened also.

Arguably part of the decline was that they mirror the improvement of the other California teams. As they improved, the Kings got worse results. And yeah, we can say that Coach Murray lost the lockerroom, or that the famous King ‘injury demon’ took his toll again this year.

But I dunno, these are very drastic, different results. There must be something deeper going on here, especially moving to the 4th quarter of the season.

And as much as it in interesting to think about reasons why Anaheim or San Jose were able to improve over the course of a season (see some thoughts here in one of my first BoC posts), it should be just as intriguing to understand the fall-apart of the Kings. Hopefully, this deterioration is correctable, or our boy James is going to come back to blogging just in time to watch his team fall apart.

At any rate, more exploration coming in the next few weeks. Feel free to shoot some 'fall apart' theories (or just general encouragement about the Kings hopes this year) in the comments.

[Edit: In cased you missed them, here is James' top 5 hockey video games, an excellent list, now all in one easily-accessible place:
#5 NES Blades of Steel
#4 NHL Hitz 2003
#3 ESPN NHL Hockey
#2 PS1 NHL 98
#1 NHL 94
plus: Chen's Honorable Mentions]

Monday, August 21, 2006

Malkin gets discovered in L.A.

Evgeni Malkin's disappearance from his Russian team's training camp was quite the espionage story, but few are reporting on how it was discovered that the Pittsburgh phenom was hiding out in Los Angeles.

Per an unreliable source, Malkin's agents were hoping to keep the kid's location under wraps for another week or so. Unfortunately, those plans were foiled when this photo was leaked to the general media:

Something about those kids, they all think they're superstars, I guess.

More Correlated Ice Time: Even Strength

I want to highlight a little more about the even-strength numbers that JavaGeek pulled about Ducks and their ice time. The theory is that looking at scoring trends while players play together (vs. how they score when apart), you can get a sense of ‘contributors’ vs. ‘borrowers’. Last post I introduced the idea in looking at Selanne and McDonald.

I’m going to pick on recently departed Joffrey Lupul a bit here, not particularly out of post-trade maliciousness, but since he is such a good counter-example for Teemu. The table below shows players who shared ice time with Selanne and Lupul. The first row reads like this:

Andy McDonald spent 77% of his even-strength ice time with Teemu Selanne, where he had 93% of his ‘plus’ events and 83% of his ‘minus’ events. He also spent 7% of his even-strength ice time with Joffrey Lupul, where he had 5% of his ‘plus’ events and 20% of his ‘minus’ events*.

with Selannewith Lupul
PlayerIceTime+ Events- EventsIceTime+ Events- Events

Andy McDonald

77%

93%

83%

7%

5%

20%

Chris Kunitz

46%

57%

39%

30%

26%

36%

Todd Marchant

5%

14%

0%

69%

66%

85%

Rob Niedermayer

6%

7%

6%

22%

19%

32%

Todd Fedoruk

23%

47%

23%

10%

7%

14%

Sammy Pahlsson

9%

16%

14%

15%

10%

8%

Dustin Penner

23%

43%

0%

61%

57%

75%

Scott Niedermayer

27%

50%

32%

32%

28%

38%

Francois Beauchemin

26%

56%

28%

27%

18%

31%

Ruslan Salei

26%

43%

27%

32%

30%

32%

Sean O’Donnell

24%

33%

0%

31%

8%

63%

Vitaly Vishnevski

29%

47%

27%

20%

13%

20%

Joe Dipenta

30%

36%

26%

19%

12%

32%

Keith Carney

27%

36%

24%

31%

33%

39%


These stats are ridiculous. Everyone benefited offensively from Teemu’s presence, whereas Joffrey appears to have been a bit of a wet sponge. Granted, I don’t believe these numbers are playoff-inclusive, but his numbers don't suggest strong even-strength production, despite the lofty goal total.

But this really is where I have a question. How much of this is because of opposition and line-matching?

Can it really be true that Teemu makes everyone that much better, or is it likely that players benefit from playing first-line ice time (and the strategy or match-ups that come with it)?

Hockey theorists, answer away!

* I would suspect that the high pct. of ‘minus’ events in this case comes from the fact that Lupul and McDonald would probably only play time together when the goalie was pulled, and thus they would suffer many ‘minus’ empty-netters against while sharing limited ice time.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Canada allowed to maintain its delusions

The reputable Hockey News ran a nice cover story about how the Battle of California teams were poised to take power in the new NHL (yes, they even said nice things about the Kings).

Unfortunately, in order to keep up Canadian morale, local boys Jarome Iginla and Bryan McCabe were alternatively promoted up north.


They must be running a feature story about overpaid superstars.

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Offseason cartoons: The Atlantic Division

More on the ill-fated series of cartooning the NHL Teams:

Previously: Pacific, Northwest, Central

And now, to the good ol' Atlantic Division, who will be visiting the Pacific this year. We haven't seen these teams since before the lockout.
From left to right, the Pittsburgh Penguin, the New York Thousand Islander, the New Jersey Devil, the New York Power Ranger, and the poor Philadelphia Flyer, who of course is undergoing the rigorous airline screening procedure we are all starting to know and love.

Oh, the humanity.

A Farewell to the Never-Unmighty

Sorry, stupid title. Any way, here's a little advanced scouting for four lucky teams, who happened to acquire parts of our previous roster during the offseason.

This also will serve as a fond farewell to those who played in the Mighty Ducks’ last days.

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Jeff Friesen, Calgary Flames
Nicknames: Game Seven, Traitor

“That’s OK, Friesen. Save it for Game Seven.”

I must have said that mocking phrase a hundred times this spring, whenever Friesen would shoot wide of the net, or refuse to hit, or generally float around and be useless. You really have to take this sort of cynical approach when it comes to Friesen, because the guy will drive you batty as a fan. He does have speed and can flash a move from time to time, but really, it never seems to come together for him. (He’s one of the few who was already playing Flames hockey before Calgary even signed him.)

The only thing is: the guy is money in game sevens, and that alone should be worth a season of frustration (or at least that’s what you should keep telling yourself). Say it with me, Flames fans, “That’s all right, Jeff. Save it for Game Seven.”

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Joffrey Lupul, Edmonton Oilers
Nickname: Loops

Lupul, on the other hand, is an intriguing story made all the more intriguing by the fact that he’s re-teaming with former Mighty Duck Petr Sykora in Edmonton. What’s interesting about that is I was going to use Sykora as a reference point for Lupul: a right-winger with a wicked shot who can backcheck to some degree but is prone to some dumbish penalties. The differences really are footspeed, which enables Sykora also to man the point on the PP, and Petr is a better dresser.

But on to Joffrey, he did score 28 regular-season and 9 playoff goals, really solid numbers for a ‘sophomore’. However, 6 of those 9 playoff goals came in the first 3 games of the Colorado sweep; he only scored in 2 of the other 13 playoff games. Also a little suspect is how he led the team in playoff penalty minutes, averaging one minor per game.

But don’t fret, Oilfans! Lupul’s growing, and I think he’ll come out a winner. He’s got good puck control and offensive awareness, and will shoot a ton of shots. Kinda like Sykora, except he’s a boring interview. One of those two guys is gonna pot 35 goals, I guarantee that. I just can’t tell you which one just yet.

(Oh, and don’t ask me about Smid. I’m still mispronouncing that name, I’m sure.)

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Ruslan Salei, Florida Panthers
Nicknames: Rusty, Belarooos, Salei of Game, Cirque d’Salei, One horse open Salei

Hoo boy, Panther fans, are you guys in for a 3-year roller coaster! Meet the pride of Belarus, Ruslan Salei. Rusty was the longest-tenured Mighty Duck, having played in Anaheim since 1996.

Rusty is old-school, baby. He’s never even heard of new rules! But he’s perfect to play some tough minutes on your blueline, he likes to ride that edge of nastiness and can be very effective at it also. It will land him in the penalty box with some regularity, but he is certainly improved from the start of last season. Though he lacks creativity, he’s adequate in the offensive zone, and is a really good puck-clearer in the defensive zone.

When Bryzgalov threw his back-to-back-to-back shutouts this past postseason, the one guy who I thought was really playing an elevated game was Rusty. He had some good hits, sharp passes, and even scored two goals. He won’t always have that mojo goin’ like that, but I think you Panther fans are going to love that Belarusian demon (especially if you sit by the penalty box).

Belaroooooooos!!!

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Vitaly Vishnevski, Atlanta Thrashers
Nickname: Vishdog

And of course, the guy who was the next-longest-tenured Mighty Duck, Vishdog has played in Anaheim since 1999 (and only this year did I get a jersey!). Vishnevski, pure and simple, was the victim of a numbers game on our blueline, to the Thrashers’ benefit.

He’s awfully weird-looking, sure, and his English is no treat either. But what separates him from most is his focus, mostly on throwing his shoulder into an oncoming player. And he’s really good at it, too, with vicious timing and accuracy. Sure, he’ll get caught from time to time, but his hits are both effective and crowd-pleasing.

Vishnevski is 26 and in defenseman years, that is still maturing. Even though he’s shown limited scoring, he is a good puckhandler and skater, and I think his numbers will improve.

As for experience, Vishnevski has played more than 400 regular season games, and been part of two serious Cup runs (and on some decently successful Russian national teams, also). I think Thrasher fans are really going to enjoy the Vish show, and hell, there’s another team to watch on the ol’ Center Ice.

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The Ducks have lost a lot of their first-round picks this offseason: Vishnevski (5th overall 1998), Lupul (7th overall 2002), Salei (9th overall 1996), Smid (9th overall 2004), plus one or two more upcoming ones in the Pronger deal.

Before the Pronger deal, I would have told you that only Salei would have been on this list.

Yulp! You better pay off, Prongerboy. You made me write a really long eulogy.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Duck Pride from around the world (the last of a 1-part series)

Some of you astute readers might notice that I have never posted anything I've taken with a digital camera, and that is because currently I have none. However, this was not always the case!

A few years ago, back when I had a digital camera, my folks, siblings, and I went on a trip to Scandinavia. One of our stops was in Helsinki, Finland, where we went to the Olympic Stadium's Finnish Sports museum.

Here's the display for Finnish ice hockey. Only two Finnish players were singled out, Teemu Selanne and Jari Kurri, and both were represented in Anaheim uniforms from their time as teammates during the 1996-97 season.

Between the two jerseys was a Disney mask signed by all the players from that team.



I'm a huge fan of Teemu Selanne, obviously, and really like Kurri too (though he obviously played all his significant career in a different uniform). So any way, I thought that was ridiculously cool, a place that wasn't ashamed to admit its Duck pride, and snapped a few shots.

So remember, Duck fans, whenever it seems like you're the only one rooting for the purple and teal orange and gold, there's always one museum that's got your back!

In fact, there's probably only one, and I was there.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Why it makes GM sense to trade Vishnevski

Well, it looks as if I’m in the market for a jersey again. The Ducks (as promised) traded away defenseman Vitaly Vishnevski to the Atlanta Thrashers today in exchange for a cheap guy named Stewart and a pick or two. I’m going to do a proper farewell for Vishnevski and a few other departed Ducks this weekend, but before I get into that, here’s some cold trade analysis:
The Ducks have the following major contracts (around Vish’s $1.55M or more) locked in for this year and beyond*:

Player

AgePosition2006-072007-082008-092009-10

Chris Pronger

31

D

$6.25

$6.25

$6.25

$6.25

Scott Niedermayer

32

D

$6.75

$6.75

$6.75

Andy McDonald

28

C

$3.33

$3.33

$3.33

Todd Marchant

32

C

$2.47

$2.47

$2.66

Rob Niedermayer

31

C/W

$2.00

$2.00

$2.00

Francois Beauchemin

26

D

$0.50

$1.65

$1.65

J.S. Giguere

29

G

$3.99

Teemu Selanne

35

W

$3.75

Sean O’Donnell

34

D

$1.52

Total

$30.56

$22.45

$22.64

$6.25

It should also be noted that Dustin Penner will be a restricted free agent in 2007-08, and Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry will be restricted free agents in 2008-09, putting each of them somewhere up on this 'core' list.

Brian Burke has designed a rather excellent-looking foundation to build around the next couple of years, no doubt. The top three blue-liners and three core forwards, along with Penner, Getzlaf, Perry, and at some point Bobby Ryan, form a great 3-year nucleus for this squad. We don’t have an NHL goaltender signed past this year**, but judging by the offseason market, apparently there are more NHL-caliber goaltenders than there are NHL teams.

So why does it make 'GM sense' move Vishdog?
1. Rosterwise, he was not going to play a significant role behind the big three. Between him and O’Donnell, Vish has the better trade value.
2. It allows Burke to get nasty at arbitration, and to make an example in front of the kids.
3. It also makes the team more Burkish, and by that I mean that Stanislav Chistov is the only Russian we have under contract any more**.
4. The extra money saved on our 5th d-man is much better spent towards our forward lines or goaltending situation.
5. It increases jersey sales by three (two more than O’Donnell).

Bottom line: Burke has done too much good GMing for me to get pissy about moving Vishnevski (I'm saving that for this weekend), and I am thrilled that he seems to operate so well in a competitive salary-cap market. It makes other things (oh, like renaming and recoloring everything) much more tolerable, knowing that on paper, we’re building a great-looking stable team under some solid leadership.

Good job, Burkie, even though today sucks. I’ll miss the Vishman very much.

Sad side note: Atlanta now has as many members of our 2003 Stanley Cup Final team as we do:
Atlanta—Steve Rucchin, Jason Krog, Niclas Havelid, Vitaly Vishnevski
Anaheim—J.S. Giguere, Rob Niedermayer, Sammy Pahlsson, Stanislav Chistov


* Numbers are in millions, and reflect actual dollar-spending, not salary cap calculation. As the Ducks are not cap spenders, these numbers are probably more relevant. These figures are without bonuses, and pulled from CanteloupeHalves' site. I added in Beauchemin’s extension myself.
** Bryzgalov is still in negotiations, but rumors have it he is going to sign in Russia. They should chain him to his bed so he doesn’t think about defecting, though.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Frenchie says “Oui, Oui!”

Fairly big news on the Anaheim front, as the Ducks have signed Francois Beauchemin to a 2-year contract extension, salary yet unknown [Edit: Per the OC Register, it is for $1.65 M each year]. I'm fairly sure that this does not affect his $500k cap number this year*, as that cannot be adjusted by extensions (otherwise Lou Lamoriello would just extend contracts until he was under the cap).

Frenchie, though he certainly benefits from having Scott Niedermayer on his flank, has a nasty shot, a solid frame, and though he is a tad slow-of-foot, his positioning is generally excellent. Scotty and Frenchie make quite a nice pairing, so don’t think it’s a coincidence both their contracts now run the same length.

If you haven’t checked it out, my poem to Beauchemin really captures the spirit of my appreciation.

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Oh, and I might not have highlighted this early enough, but apparently our new friend Ian Moran was keeping a blog during his time with the Boston Bruins. Perhaps like Vishnevski, I too am to be replaced by a minimum-wage player.

Then again, here’s some of his recent posts:


Strange
It is 5:45 am and a large round ball is in the sky. It appears to be orange. Not sure what it is, but it hurts when I stare into it!

12:00 p.m.
It’s 12:00 p.m. and I think the bright orange ball in the sky is making people smile. How bizarre! I’ve also noticed that pedestrians aren’t getting as wet because the people driving cars seem to be avoiding the puddles! It is all very surreal to me.

Sun or son (excerpt)
It’s 7:14 p.m. I’ve done research and I have learned that the bright thing in the sky is called the Sun, not to be confused with a son. Both are pronounced the same way and both can provide tremendous amounts of happiness.
Now I haven’t been keeping up with the Bruins to know whether they have some sort of Flowers For Algernon Appreciation Week or anything, but just in case he keeps deteriorating, I’ll maintain my role as a secondary Duck resource for a little while longer.

On the plus side, Moran easily wins the award for Best Mohawk on the team (which, as a Mr. T fan**, means a lot to me). He certainly puts Chris Kunitz's Alfalfa-look to shame!

* I might be wrong on this, but the Ducks are a team that are watching their cashflow more than their 'average-salary' cap hit anyway.

** Jerseywork courtesy of Ingmar Bergman.

You can take this Nolan...and keep it!

(Props to anyone who knows what movie the title is from...the actual quote replaces "Nolan" with "money")

Owen Nolan signs with the Coyotes today and I'm glad. No, not because I have an opinion on how he'll do, but because it'll finally stop all of the "Owen Nolan comes back" chatter that I hear from people clinging on to the past. And was the past really that good? Let's explore:

Courtesy of HockeyDB.com, stats are in Games Played, Goals, Assists, Points














1996-97 San Jose Sharks NHL 72 31 32 63





1997-98 San Jose Sharks NHL 75 14 27 41





1998-99 San Jose Sharks NHL 78 19 26 45





1999-00 San Jose Sharks NHL 78 44 40 84





2000-01 San Jose Sharks NHL 57 24 25 49





2001-02 San Jose Sharks NHL 75 23 43
66






Note that I didn't include his trade years (95-96 and 03-04). In six full seasons, Nolan only broke 30 goals TWICE and only ONCE met a point-per-game average. In other words, he had the stats of a good player who flashed greatness in 98-99, but never sustained it.

Nolan's role now will be more of a support player and help on the power play. That's fine, but with his stats diminished, his positives start to be negated by his negatives. And his big negative is that his body is fragile and he's a jerk.

Nolan's recovering from knee problems. But don't forget the back and groin problems that have plagued him throughout his career. Sorry, but those aren't problems that just magically go away -- they stay with you for the rest of time. And even though being a jerk is subjective, poll any number of Sharks fans who have encountered him and I guarantee you'll get a majority percentage of people who thought he ranged from "unpleasant" to "jackass". I have a buddy who works for the Sharks and he hated working on anything with Nolan because off his surly attitude.

Now, Drew Remenda says that Owen's a changed man. Maybe so. Maybe he's mellowed out, even humbled by what's happened over the past few years. Good for him. It still doesn't merit him coming back when the Sharks' top two lines are set. Honestly, can you argue with:

Line 1: Joe Thornton/Jonathon Cheechoo/Mark Bell
Line 2: Patrick Marleau/Milan Michalek/Steve Bernier

Even though Michalek and Bernier are still young, chances are they will total at least 55 points. Do you think Nolan will get that? Maybe, maybe not, but I'd rather gamble on the young, healthy guys then the broken veteran with an inconsistent track record.

The argument against is that he only signed for $1.25 million and the Sharks could have afforded. That's true, and technically, he could have squeezed in on the 3rd line and moved up and down depending on if a line need some mixing up. But I see it as not worth the trouble. All you hear is that the Sharks have great locker room chemistry. Why spoil that with someone who 1) may not be able to produce and 2) has a reputation for being moody and a jerk?

People will argue that Teemu Selanne had a resurgance year. Yeah, but now EVERYBODY claims that they will be the next Teemu Selanne. If it was that easy to bounce back, we'd be marvelling at performances like that every season. And, let's face it, Selanne has more pure talent than Nolan does. Just look at his stats -- even on his bad years, minus one season in Colorado, Selanne was still in the upper 20s in goals, and how many times did he break 40 goals?

Nolan will probably play 50-60 games and put in about 35-40 points. For the distractions and headaches, it just ain't worth it to me.

By the way, if Phoenix wanted to generate new revenue, they could force Wayne Gretzky, Jeremy Roenick, and Owen Nolan to live in ahouse together and sell the TV rights. It'd go something like this:

JR: (singing and dancing) Celebrate good times, come on!
Owen: Shut the f*** up, you stupid a*******!!!
JR: Come on Owen, it's always time for disco dancing!
Owen: I hate you! (runs over and punches JR)
Wayne: (vein bulging out of his forehead) OWEN!!! JR!!! I BLAME THE REFS!!!!

(oh, and the movie quote was from the Timothy Dalton James Bond movie License To Kill.)

Burkie's Bargains

Come one, come all down to Burkie’s Bargains, where the deals never stop comin’!

This week we offer a lean cut of Vitaly Vishnevski, a rock-em, sock-em defenseman. Forget what might have been said during arbitration; he’s only 26 years old, makes a lean $1.55 M, and already has put in a good 453 NHL games, if you count the playoffs.

To add to this, we are also running a special this week on playoff goaltenders, take your pick. Would you rather have the best statistical goaltender from the 2003 playoffs or the best statistical goaltender from the 2006 playoffs? J.S. Giguere comes with a Conn Smythe trophy and a one-year, $3.99 M price tag, while Ilya Bryzgalov has yet to sign but might look to command something in the $2 - $3 M range.

Not sure it’s worth it? Why not ask a few of our previous clients:

Dave Nonis"Burkie is a bastard. He leaves me with a salary-heavy underproducing top line in Vancouver, steals our Manitoba coach Carlyle just before we fire Crawford, takes a serviceable defenseman along with him in Joe Dipenta, then loans us a slow, broken version of Keith Carney, who manages to help tank us out of the playoffs. Do not make a deal with this man ever."

Doug McLean"
Burkie is a son-of-a-bitch. He steals our prospect Beauchemin and turns him into a star, then sinks us with Fedorov’s contract but neglects to send the superstar version. A few days later he even throws Todd Marchant into the deal. Do not make a deal with this man ever."

Glen Sather"Burkie is an asshole. Rucchin came in and played OK, and then we got Sykora and that was workable, but then he unloads Ozolinsh and his boxful of issues on me also? Now all I got are receipts! Do not make a deal with this man ever."

Kevin Lowe"Burkie is a dickhead, but not nearly as bad as that prick Chris Pronger. Do not deal with either of these men ever."

George McPhee"Burkie’s pretty cool. Thanks for taking Friesen off our hands."

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Anaheim signs a new anthem singer, Phoenix signs a new headache

Well, I can’t offer too much here, but the Ducks have signed former-Bruin and former-Penguin Ian Moran, 33, to a one-year deal today [Edit: $450k]. Moran, like last year’s Jason Marshall, can play both defense and forward without doing either one especially well.

I do recall him from Pittsburgh telecasts as being a ‘miked up’ favorite, especially for his fervent renditions of the national anthems. Also, he is coming off knee surgery, which if Selanne or Niedermayer serve as any indication, means he will likely transform into a dominant all-star.

Any way, this probably puts another nail in Vishnevski’s coffin. Eulogies to come.

[EDIT: Credit Official Anaheim Message Boards poster 777 for uncovering this awesome Ian Moran link. I know what I'll be reading for the rest of the day!]

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Meanwhile, the Phoenix Coyotes keep adding to their intriguing mix of forwards by dabbling in the Owen Nolan saga. I’m sure Mike can tell us more of what to expect out of the other suddenly-reappearing-Nolan (see: Ted Nolan), but these Dogs are looking a little more intriguing with every new move.

This move appears to be quite a big gamble, which more than likely means it was initiated by notorious gambloholic Janet Gretzky.