Dominant as an east-coast twentysomething

Well, I'm about half-way moved into my Irvine place, and I figured I could take a quick break from the packing/unpacking madness to resume my normal blogginess, specifically as it relates to Teemu Selanne, Power Play Specialist. The Finnish Flash may or may not have declared that he is returning to Southern California in September, depending how much you trust your Finnish.

I made a quick table below that attempts to answer one question: Despite Selanne taking most of last season off, how many NHLers have scored more regular-season power play goals than Teemu since the lockout?

Top PPG Scorers since the Lockout
(reg. season only)

(click image to enlarge)
Answer: Three, and it's worth looking at some of the commonalities about them.

1. They all are more than a decade younger than Selanne. Really, these three players probably represent the new wave of goal scorers, and Heatley, Ovechkin, and Kovalchuk could be taking home the Rocket Richard Trophy for a long while.

2. They all play in the eastern conference. I'm not sure how strong an effect this is, but it is worth noting that since the lockout, the eastern conference has allowed 204 more power play goals than the western conference in 311 fewer power play opportunities. Remember, in the old schedule nearly 90% of a regular season was played against same-conference opponents.

3. They all played significantly more power play minutes than Teemu. This is really the stat that got me: not only are these comparables way younger and in the easier conference, but look how their power play total ice time compares with Old Man Selanne.

• Heatley scored 6% more PP goals in 25% more games and 27% more PP minutes.
• Ovechkin scored 18% more PP goals in 30% more games and 56% more PP minutes.
• Kovalchuk scored 22% more PP goals in 27% more games and 74% more PP minutes.

Unreal. Teemu is a PP freak!

Now I don't really want to knock any of Heatley, Ovechkin, or Kovalchuk (also: Tomas Vanek and Evgeni Malkin were both on pace to make this list over just the last two seasons -- they also are a decade younger than Selanne and play in the east): these names will be carrying the goal-scoring title for a long while. I also should stress that while I am comparing individual production numbers, PP success is very unit-based.

No, I'm just here to point out again how freaking remarkable Teemu's man-advantage production has been since his return to SoCal. While seemingly power play goals is a stat that has been dominated by eastern-conference children of the 80s, at least one representative of the old-school-west is still hanging at the top of the charts, making us marvel again and again in Anaheim.

C'mon. One more year, Teemu. Go Ducks.

OT: Ilya Kovalchuk is Really Good

(I originally put this up a while ago but took it down to write about Dustin Brown's contract. I'm not doing all the math again (you do it!), so just know that Kovalchuk has scored 10 goals since I wrote this, including back-to-back hat tricks. Holy balls.)

I know, breaking news, right? I don't just mean "really good" in an All-Star way, though, I mean "really good" as in one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history. I was watching a game the other day where Kovalchuk scored and the announcer casually mentioned that it was Kovalchuk's 205th in the NHL. I did a double-take; 205 goals, at 24? What the hell? He's added two more since then, putting him at 207 for his career. How good does that project out for his career?

(Disclaimer: This is fairly rudimentary analysis because I'm lazy and also a moron, so take it with a grain of salt.)

Who says Kovalchuk can't get the ugly scores?

Kovalchuk has played in 5 seasons so far. During that time span he's scored 202 goals, which averages out to 40.4 per season. Since he's 24, let's guess that he plays 14 more seasons and then retires when he's 38. At his current pace, Kovalchuk would score 566 more goals; that combined with the 202 he's already scored, would give him a total of 768, or 3rd all-time.

Now, don't go around telling everyone that I said Kovalchuk is going to score more goals than Brett Hull, because I don't want him showing up at my apartment threatening to kill me. So far in his career Kovalchuk has played in about 77 games/season, which seems unsustainable. (Although he loafs so much that I doubt he's going to get a groin pull or anything.) Also, assuming Kovalchuk is going to score 40 goals a season every year up through the long decline of his 30s is probably unrealistic. Plus, we have no idea how badly the lockout could end up costing him.

Ilya just scored twice while you read this sentence.

Still, there's a few things that make me think he could actually get to that number. Kovalchuk's career-high is 52, set in 2005-06; do you really think he's going to go another season without getting into the 50's or even 60's? That could off-set a couple down season where he only gets into the 20's in terms of goals. Plus, even without the lockout, Kovalchuk has gotten off to a fabulous start. Of the top 10 goal scorers in NHL history, only 3 have gotten off to a better start than Kovalchuk*: Steve Yzerman (229), Mario Lemieux (300), and Wayne Gretzky (429, which is just the most retarded thing I've ever seen).

So, what does this mean? I don't know, it just kinda struck me as interesting. It's weird how little press Kovalchuk gets though, especially when compared to his old compatriot, Danny Heatley. Say what you want about the rest of Kovalchuk's game, but 1/2 of the game is scoring goals; so far, he's been one of the best ever at it.


*I looked at each guy's career up to their age 24 season. A lot of the older guys took longer to get to the NHL because there were fewer teams, so they had to mature more. (Of course, those guys could play longer because they didn't really have to skate as hard.) Brendan Shanahan, Jaromir Jagr, and Joe Sakic sit at 12, 13, and 14 respectively on the all-time goal scoring list; only Jagr had a better start. I don't think anyone has gotten a better start among the younger players, although we'll see what Ovechkin has to say about it in a couple years.