Ducks Gameday—Streak Comparison: This Season vs. Last

Anaheim Ducks (14-8-3, 3rd in west) at Detroit Red Wings (15-4-4, 2nd in west)
Battle of the Hangovers

For today's post I threw together a comparison table looking at how the Ducks and Red Wings have been performing compared to a specific stretch of games last season. For the Ducks, the selected stretches have been hand-picked from each season:

07-08: the first 19 games after Scott Niedermayer returned to the lineup.
08-09: the most recent 19 games (excluding the 1-5-0 first six games).

I decided to stick to stretches where the Ducks have been performing well points-wise. In the 07-08 stretch, the Ducks went 12-5-2; in the 08-09 stretch the Ducks went 13-3-3. For the Red Wings, the selection is much more straightforward:

07-08: the first 23 games of the season.
08-09: the first 23 games of the season.

This one's much more obvious: I'm just looking at how Detroit's "hangover" start (15-4-4) compares to its season start from last year (15-6-2). Now I don't want to read too much into these early-season comparisons, but I think it's worth noting that while each of these teams have actually improved their ability to accumulate standings points (for a stretch, anyways), a lot of the underlying numbers have gotten worse. Let's take a look:


Note: excludes shootout goals. Click image to enlarge.
Patterns: For both the Ducks and Red Wings, the current-year versions have been surrendering way more goals than they did last year -- each team is giving up around 2/3 an extra goal-per-game, with some of that comes from a declining penalty kill. Each team has found a way to generate wins despite a shakier defense, though, mainly through an improved team offense.

Offensively, one of the keys has been each team's power play, which has for each team produced more power play goals in fewer power play opportunities than the year before. Overall, each team has improved its offense, though not by the same margin that the defensive numbers have changed; each team this year has a worse goal-differential-per-game than the previous year.

Shot analysis shows a similar story: shots-for per game are marginally improved, but shots-against per game have increased even further; the net shot differential has gotten worse this year for both squads (the Ducks, in fact, are now typically outshot).

So basically, what does this mean? Both squads have shown an improved ability to accumulate standings points this year vs. last year despite some declines in the differential statistics and underlying numbers -- in a way, this suggests that the current win pattern is a bit illusory. I'd expect that each team would have gotten worse results with the current year's statistics, but at least so far, that hasn't really been the case. I wouldn't worry about these patterns just yet for either team (there is absolutely nothing wrong with illusory win streaks in November), but here's some open-ended questions for the comments:

• Why do you think these teams have continued to win despite worsened statistics: is there something to the notion of "knowing how to win all styles of hockey" where these veteran rosters are capable of adjusting to a more free-flowing game?


• What do you see as the primary drivers for the change in offensive and defensive numbers for these teams? Are opponents treating them differently, or are these squads more careless than they used to be?


• Going forward, what do you expect out of each team? Will the numbers eventually tighten up, or is this an offense-friendly evolution for the Ducks and Red Wings? If the statistics do not tighten up, can these teams continue winning the way they currently are?

Food for thought, anyway.

Prediction: Now that I've demonstrated a more offense-friendly tendency for both the Ducks and Red Wings, we're probably in for a tight defensive battle tonight. Ducks 2, Wings 1. Goals by Ryan and Pahlsson. For your Wings coverage, there's always A2Y, Winging it in Motown, and On the Wings.

Go Ducks.

The 16-Game Sniff Test: How do the Sharks measure up?

As the Sharks have racked up points to start this season, I've had my attention fixed on where they'd sit after the sixteen game mark. Why sixteen games, you ask? For one, it does represent the first 20% of the season, but more importantly, it's where I mentally set the bar two years ago when the Ducks finally suffered a regulation loss in Game 17.

This originally was going to be a comparison of just the 06-07 Ducks and the 08-09 Sharks, but since I started mulling the idea I've been reminded that it's not just the Ducks that started their season on fire en route to a Stanley Cup. Here's a look at the last four cup winners have performed in their (mostly) first sixteen games, with the Sharks thrown in for comparison. In the right-hand column I have included each team's record through 60 minutes -- probably more indicative of projected postseason play.

Overall Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning*	11-2-2-1, 25 pts 0.781	47 – 29 = 18 2.94 – 1.81 = 1.13	14 / 78 17.9%	7 / 64 89.1%	10-2-4, 24 pts 0.750
05-06 Hurricanes**	12-2-1, 25 pts 0.833	59 – 38 = 21 3.93 – 2.53 = 1.40	21 / 96 21.9%	15 / 81 81.5%	10-2-3, 23 pts 0.767
06-07 Ducks	12-0-4, 28 pts 0.875	57 – 32 = 25 3.56 – 2.00 = 1.56	18 / 86 20.9%	10 / 92 89.1%	9-0-7, 25 pts 0.781
07-08 Red Wings	13-2-1, 27 pts 0.844	54 – 33 = 21 3.38 – 2.06 = 1.31	18 / 77 23.4%	10 / 85 88.2%	11-2-3, 25 pts 0.781
08-09 Sharks	13-3-0, 26 pts 0.813	52 – 38 = 14 3.25 – 2.38 = 0.88	13 / 80 16.3%	9 / 61 85.2%	10-3-3, 23 pts 0.719

* Remember when standings used to have four columns? For those of us who need reminding (I sure did!), the Lightning had 2 ties and 1 overtime loss in their first 16.
** I gave the Hurricanes a break and only showed their first 15 games. In Game 16, the Atlanta Thrashers smoked the 'Canes 9-0 in Raleigh and threw off all the statistics. Mentally add it if you must.

First off, I want to caution reading too much into these comparisons: sixteen games guarantees absolutely nothing except a leg up on a playoff position, and there's no real need for the Sharks to outperform any of these prior cup winners -- San Jose won't be facing these lineups this year.

Secondly, I want to emphasize more about comparisons with the Ducks and Red Wings, and less about the Lightning and Hurricanes. I included the Southeast winners because they did reinforce the pattern, but their Cup Finals were a bit unique -- meeting a bottom seed in the west and requiring a seventh game at home to seize their prize. No offense, but the Ducks and Wings represent teams that cruised to victory over more traditional Finals opponents, and their regular seasons were more similar to today's NHL.

Thirdly, we should always keep in mind sample size -- sixteen games is meaningful, but stats still can certainly be affected by an outlier game. With that in mind, here's the home and road splits, which represent even fewer games :)
Home Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	8-1-1-1, 18 pts 0.818	37 – 20 = 17 3.36 – 1.82 = 1.55	11 / 62 17.7%	5 / 47 89.4%	7-1-3, 17 pts 0.773
05-06 Hurricanes	7-0-0, 14 pts 1.000	30 – 18 = 12 4.29 – 2.57 = 1.71	10 / 48 20.8%	9 / 43 79.1%	5-0-2, 12 pts 0.857
06-07 Ducks	7-0-3, 17 pts 0.850	37 – 22 = 15 3.70 – 2.20 = 1.50	13 / 59 22.0%	7 / 58 87.9%	6-0-4, 16 pts 0.800
07-08 Red Wings	7-1-0, 14 pts 0.875	26 – 15 = 11 3.25 – 1.88 = 1.38	10 / 43 23.3%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-1-2, 12 pts 0.750
08-09 Sharks	9-0-0, 18 pts 1.000	32 – 17 = 15 3.56 – 1.89 = 1.67	6 / 47 12.8%	4 / 31 87.1%	7-0-2, 16 pts 0.889

Road Records:

Team	Raw Record	GF – GA = GD	PP	PK	Regulation Record
03-04 Lightning	3-1-1-0, 7 pts 0.700	10 – 9 = 1 2.00 – 1.80 = 0.20	3 / 16 18.8%	2 / 17 88.2%	3-1-1, 7 pts 0.700
05-06 Hurricanes	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688	29 – 20 = 9 3.63 – 2.50 = 1.13	11 / 48 22.9%	6 / 38 84.2%	5-2-1, 11 pts 0.688
06-07 Ducks	5-0-1, 11 pts 0.917	20 – 10 = 10 3.33 – 1.67 = 1.67	5 / 27 18.5%	3 / 34 91.2%	3-0-3, 9 pts 0.750
07-08 Red Wings	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813	28 – 18 = 10 3.50 – 2.25 = 1.25	8 / 34 23.5%	4 / 47 91.5%	6-1-1, 13 pts 0.813
08-09 Sharks	4-3-0, 8 pts 0.571	20 – 21 = -1 2.86 – 3.00 = -0.14	7 / 33 21.2%	5 / 30 83.3%	3-3-1, 7 pts 0.500

Takeaways: If the sixteen-game sniff test bears out, the Sharks are certainly keeping pace with Cup darlings from years past. Their goal-differential and special teams seem a little lower than the winners' trend, but it's certainly not an alarming difference.

One thing I didn't include on these tables was shot differential -- on average, the Sharks outshoot their opponents by a margin of 37 - 25, which is a whopping difference. Only last year's Red Wings on this list were able to match that for their first 16 games (34.5 - 22.4); the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were all only slightly ahead of their opponents in that regard. This is one reason I'm not too critical of the goal-differential and special teams for the Sharks; it seems like it's more a matter of luck than anything.

If you're looking for a spot of potential mediocrity, though, it might be in the Sharks' road record, which is only .500 through regulation (again, small sample size). Still, winning on the road is one thing that the other Cup winners did very well in their season starts, and that ability served them well enough in the postseason. I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point, Sharks fans, but it's something to pay attention to as the season continues along.

From the Ducks' point of view, there is one other key difference to note about the 06-07 Ducks' start and the 08-09 Sharks: the chasers. Even with the Ducks starting 12-0-4, they barely had any divisonal lead to speak of -- the Dallas Stars at that point were 12-4-0 and the Sharks were 12-5-0. It was an incredible start by all three Pacific teams. This year, the Sharks are being followed by the Ducks (2 games above .500) and the Coyotes (1 game above .500), and the immediate threat of being caught is enormously lessened.

I'm not crowning any champions today, and I'm not ruling out any team from next spring's Cup -- by the time the playoffs roll around, I'll care much more about how the last 80% of the season went than the first 20%, but I had the numbers fairly handy and I thought I'd show the comparison stats.


Question for readers: Why does this pattern exist? Does a fast start give a team any particular edge coming out of a long season, or is it just the case that excellent teams tend to have good starts and tend to win Cups? Also, seeing the comparison, what likelihood would you give these Sharks of becoming champions this coming spring? If you have any observations or theories you want to add (or have any questions about the underlying numbers), feel free to throw them in the comments.

BoC Gameday—Six Games of Jekyll, Seven Games of Hyde

Anaheim Ducks (7-5-1, t-3rd in west) at Los Angeles Kings (3-6-1, 15th in west)
Let's try this again, shall we?

Lots to talk about on the Anaheim end of things, plus I'm sure Rudy's got plenty of Kings stuff to add, so let's get moving. First off is the Six Games of Jekyll / Seven Games of Hyde that's started off the Ducks' year. 1-5-0 in the first six, then 6-0-1 in the last seven, and the primary difference appears to be offense: the Ducks jumped from 2.17 goals scored per game to 4.14, and the power play jumped from a 1-for-24 success ratio to a 10-for-30 over the last seven games. Meanwhile, defense and penalty killing for the Ducks have stayed remarkably consistent (goals-against per game went from 3.33 to 3.29; penalty killing went from 80.6% to 80.5%).

As noted, the primary driver for this improved offense has been the awakening of the three-headed first star of the week: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Teemu Selanne. The table below shows the improvement that each of the three players has shown both in even-strength and power-play situations. Each statistic (goals/60 minutes, assists/60, points/60, plus/60, minus/60, differential/60) is shown twice for each player -- once to show their rates for the first six games and again to show their rates for the last seven games. Pay particular attention to the points/60 and the plus/60 -- the improvement is phenomenal.

Scoring rate splits for Getzlaf, Perry, and Selanne

Stats are shown: Games 1-6 / Games 7-13
(click image for larger view)

It's really not all good news for the Ducks, though (what? negativity?). Over the last seven games there have definitely been stretches where opponents have carried the play against the Ducks, though usually those have come after the Ducks have taken an early lead. The Ducks allowed two straight goals to Toronto, three straight to Ottawa, three straight to Montreal, two straight to Columbus, two straight to Detroit, five straight to Vancouver, and two straight to Calgary. There have definitely been offsetting stretches where Anaheim has owned the play (the Ducks have led 2-0 in five of the seven games), but there have definitely been stretches where Anaheim has sat back and held on for dear life.

Still, I can't complain. The primary objective of accumulating standings points has been wildly successful, and for every stretch where an opponent has controlled the game, there has been an equal-or-greater stretch that the Ducks have manufactured. Look at some of these Anaheim goal outbursts: @TOR - 2g in 5:14 in the 1st, @OTT - 3g in 10:01 in the 2nd, @MTL - 3g in 13:59 in the 2nd, @CBJ - 2g in 6:46 in the 3rd, DET - 2g in 8:06 in the 3rd, VAN - 3g in 1:40 in the 2nd, CGY - 2g in 0:45 in the 2nd. It's not a typical "shut the opposition down" streak that the Ducks have been known for in the past couple of years, but I'll certainly take it.

* * *

Mats Sundin is apparently intrigued by the Ducks? Uh, OK Mats. The Ducks can't really offer any money, easy travel schedule, or even a spot on the top power play unit, but if you're purely interested in the comfort of anonymity, Anaheim certainly is not a town to judge people for mid-season unretirements. As an added bonus, Sammy Pahlsson would automatically become your best friend -- he'd probably talk your ear off, finally given an opportunity to speak Swedish again. So Mr. Sundin, if you're truly interested, the only question remains: would you prefer a December Niedermayer return package or are you interested in the February Selanne plan?

* * *

The Ducks return to Staples Center tonight where they lost 6-3 in the third game of each team's season. Kings fans may be worried, as they haven't won in their past four games, but the Ducks have been streak-busters as of late. In chronological order, they have ended L.A.'s 2-game losing streak, San Jose's 4-game win streak, Montreal's 5-game win streak, Detroit's 5-game win streak, and Calgary's 6-game win streak. Anaheim's streak-ending trend may be just what the Kings need.

Prediction: In lately-typical Ducks fashion, Ducks win 4-3 by scoring the first four goals of the game, then sitting back and letting the Kings dominate the second half of the game. Goals by Perry, Moen, Pahlsson, and Kunitz.

p.s. Careful readers will note that I have said absolutely nothing about today's presidential election. To tell the truth, I haven't followed this race very well at all. Basically, my opinion of voting is the same it was two years ago; certainly vote if you feel led.

Go Ducks.

Ducks Gameday—A hasty look at the SoCal Two-For-One Special

Vancouver Canucks (5-5-0, t-7th in west) at Anaheim Ducks (6-5-0, 5th in west)
Trick or treat? Teemu takes Trick.

Sorry this gameday post was so late in coming, but I was under the assumption that the NHL was going to suspend all regular season games until its posterchild Sid Crosby recovered from his mystery injury. Whoops!

At any rate, because I was so bored at work today I thought I'd revisit an old study I did about the success of teams visiting SoCal to play both the Kings and the Ducks. In the table below, I've pooled together all the instances since the lockout when a visiting team played at the Honda Center and the Staples Center within two days of each other, then separated the results according to (a) which arena they visited first, and (b) how many days separated the games. Keep in mind, this table shows visiting opponent results, not the results for the home teams:

(click image to enlarge)
There's a lot of data thrown in this table (and sorry for the shoddy image quality), but here's a few quick takeaways:

1. Given a choice, a visiting team probably prefers to visit the Ducks before they visit the Kings. In the 23 times that has happened since the lockout, teams have won 10 times in the Honda Center, 13 times in the Staples Center, and 7 times a visiting team has won in both venues.

When teams visit the Kings first (as Vancouver did last night), they generally get ripped up by the Ducks in the second game. In the 35 times that has happened since the lockout, only 9 times has a visiting team won the second game in Honda Center and only 2 times has a visiting team been able to walk away with victories in each building (though the Canucks could become the third team to do it tonight).

Interesting to note that if you count the upcoming games against Vancouver and Calgary, that will make the last eleven straight opponents who went to Staples Center first.

2. A day off between games helps a team in either situation. Neither Vancouver nor Calgary will enjoy that luxury, but as you can see, visiting teams do enjoy better results in the second game if they have a day off to prepare for it. It's intuitive, sure, but I thought I'd point it out.

What's less intuitive? Teams with a day off between venues are typically enjoying better results in the first game, also. Possibly this has to do with "looking ahead" at the next day's opponent?

3. There's still plenty of factors that aren't included in this spreadsheet. Part of what makes this study a bit complex is that loosely speaking, the last three-plus seasons the Ducks have been very good and the Kings have been very bad, and it's interesting to see how teams strategize with that in mind. Should a team play its starter against Anaheim and its back-up against L.A., to try to pick up points in each venue? Or should the starter get the easier points in L.A. and let the back-up try to pull an upset in Anaheim?

Also lost a bit in this story is the set of teams that are making these two-stop trips; generally it's teams that have to travel very far (San Jose doesn't appear in this data once, as an example). Just another thing to keep in mind when over-analyzing these results.

At any rate, I've laid out the results in what I think is a logical way; feel free to comment or question any of it, or add observations of your own.

Prediction: Per the spreadsheet, Ducks win 3.5 - 2.2. Goals by Hedican, Morrison, Pahlsson, and half a goal by Perry.

Have a safe and pagan Halloween, everyone! Go Ducks.

Pie Charts > Cartoons

I guess it was a result of reading USA Today too often, but I always wanted pie chart functionality on my blog. I will break down a few of the recent scoring trends for San Jose on Sharkspage soon. I was going to try to project the largest number of 20 goal scorers for the Sharks in a few years, but as has happened often when I delve into the numbers it usually disproves the point I am actually trying to make.

There is no live broadcast of Dan Boyle's return to Tampa Bay tonight on Comcast Sportsnet Bay Area. There will be a broadcast of the game on the NHL Network (as reported on the Sharks-Florida broadcast last night, my cable guide shows Northern Michigan at Michigan State tonight at 4PM), and Sharks radio play-by-play host Dan Rusanowski breaks down a plethora of radio options for tonights game here.

If you want to go off the board for your hockey viewing today try Yahoo Streaming (Pittsburgh vs New York Rangers), hockeywebcasts.com (Ottawa @ Toronto, Anaheim @ Montreal, Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, Edmonton @ Vancouver), or channelsurfing.net. You could also subscribe to the NHL's official Game Center (I keep confusing this with ESPN's old GameCast), which has very good video quality and a number of bells and whistles to make it worthwhile. Boycott tsn.ca until they unblock American viewers.

San Jose Sharks vs Philadelphia Flyers photos

The Sharks 5-4 overtime win on Saturday night was an entertaining affair, with new defenseman Dan Boyle contributing to the game tying and game winning goals respectively. It was Boyle who fired 2 of the Sharks 5 shots in an earlier 5-on-3 man advantage, Boyle who split 2 Flyers and pulled up in front of a third to create the game tying goal sequence, and it was Boyle who drove the net in overtime and hammered home a hard feed from Thornton to give the Sharks a win and a 5-1 start on the season.

The Flyers are a bit of a conundrum at this point. They have some injuries on defense, and they brought in a hulking Andrew Alberts from Boston who took a number of shifts, but they had more than enough opportunities to lock down a difficult road win. Instead they opted to go eye-for-eye, check-for-check with San Jose and they got burned. The physical element to the game kicked off early in the first period when defenseman Rob Blake checked Scott Hartnell hard into the post. It was a clean play to prevent a rebound opportunity, but Downie/Staubitz and two other Flyers jumped into a scrum behind the net. Devin Setoguchi scored the game tying goal, but he also destroyed Scottie Upshall with a check in the defensive zone, and crumpled Hartnell with a check near the penalty box late in the third. Hartnell took offense, and came after Setoguchi with a stick high to the head that connected about 3 feet from where I was sitting.

What was noticeable was the speed at which he came in on the play, and the fact that the puck had already been played around the boards. Too many bodies between the ref and the hit, or they were focusing on another part of the ice are the only reasons I can think of for that non-call. There was also a NHL statistican error, as one of the players was left in the box longer that 2 minutes (+20 seconds). I was on the other side of the ice, so I do not have the details, but there was a stoppage in play so it was not a major problem. Another example of the speed of the play is the shot of Patrick Marleau checking Mike Knuble in the third photo above. A split second before that picture neither player were in the field of view, a split second after that photo both players were crumpled against the end boards. That hit happened at full speed, as Marleau prevented Knuble from driving the net to create a scoring opportunity.

In the second photo the puck looks like it is traveling into the net, or wide to the right. It actually trickled a few inches wide to the left on the play. Niitmayki was solid on the night, stopping 40 of 45 shots, but his one mistake on a harmless Joe Pavelski shot from the blueline (with the Flyers best 2 defenseman on him) resulted in an 8 foot rebound in front. Pavelski jumped on the loose puck and hammered home a goal early in the third period to spark the Sharks comeback. Niitmayki was solid before that play with spectacular stops on Thornton and Boyle, and after that play with a little over 2 minutes left when he robbed Cheechoo with a highlight reel glove save. The Sharks were 1-7 on the power play, and adjustments are needed. Several times I noted that San Jose only had one player in front of the net, and the radio broadcast noted they were setting up too far off the goaltender. Joe Thornton initiating play behind the net may become too much of a routine as coming off the half boards last year. New head coach Todd McLellan mentioned several times he wanted Thornton to drive the net with the puck, and that he also wants more players on other lines to crash the net (like Jonathan Cheechoo).

BoC Gameday—Technically, somebody's getting a "W" tonight

Anaheim Ducks (0-2-0, last in west) at Los Angeles Kings (0-2-0, last in west)
Battle of the Basement

Sorry I've been a bit invisible the last couple of days; I've been steering clear of the blog, mainly because of the frustrating play of the Anaheim Ducks. It's not just that they're 0-2 that bothers me (only once in franchise history have the Ducks started 2-0), but it's the manner in which games are being lost that really sucks.

It's a pattern that dates back to the Dallas series last spring, and I've put a table together that lists the last seven times an opponent has broken a tie against the Ducks. All seven times the Ducks also allowed the next goal for a 2-goal deficit, and in six of seven times the lead was extended to 3 goals, on average less than 20 minutes later.

Game	Time Elapsed Until Deficit Extends to 2	Time Elapsed Until Deficit Extends to 3
G1 v DAL	6:09	12:33
G2 v DAL	15:00
G2 v DAL	0:55	8:49
G4 @ DAL	32:22	40:38
G6 @ DAL	15:32	17:46
G1 @ SJS	4:12	20:20
G2 v PHX	10:11	17:16
Last Seven 1-goal Deficits	7 of 7 12:03 avg	6 of 7 19:34 avg

Now I realize not all BoC readers enjoy deciphering time-elapsed-deficit data tables, so I've also illustrated the problem (using both Duck logos!):


"When you're done chewing off my right leg, please help yourself to the left.
And don't forget the tasty throat!"
So the Ducks need to solve two problems:

• Don't turn one-goal deficits into three-goal deficits. This isn't even an option; if this doesn't get fixed immediately I'll pre-order a Tavares jersey. The Ducks have made it entirely too easy to extend leads, either by overfilling the penalty box or by allowing odd-man rushes. They need some goddamn composure, really.



• Don't fall behind so often; put more emphasis on leading. You have to go back 18 games in the Ducks' schedule to find a game where the Ducks had a lead and didn't win the game. Granted, it's not a theory that's getting tested a lot lately, but it does seem to be the easy fundamental to focus on at this point.

Basically, the Ducks need to stop shitting the bed. Two games in, and the Ducks have scored three goals -- one each from Rob Niedermayer, Ryan Carter, and George Parros -- all scored while the Ducks trailed by 3. That trio of forwards looks to blow out its 13 combined goals from last year, but if anyone who was actually projected to score goals could put the puck in the net, that might help things considerably. So far, Nabokov and Bryzgalov have picked up fairly easy wins, way too reminiscent of the easy wins that the Ducks gave Turco last spring.

As for the 0-2 Kings, Rudy can probably better fill you in, but their problem might be as simple as "let's stop playing the Sharks".

Prediction: Who really can say with this club? Ducks 3, Kings 1. Goals by Klee, Pahlsson, and Pahlsson.

Seriously, Go Ducks.

Parallelism: The post-lockout ascents of the Ducks and the Sharks

Nothing too new in this post, but I figured I'd make a quick chart to show the parallel paths between the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks since the lockout. I normally would have put this in tomorrow's game day post, but we've got other plans afoot (I know, wtf? Plans and BoC? Crazy).

I didn't label the x-axis, but it would number 1-82 three times across this chart, for the three seasons played since the lockout. As noted below the chart, the red line represents the difference in the three year cumulative points total; the blue line resets at zero at the start of each new regular season.

Red line = cumulative point total difference since the lockout
Blue line = resets at zero at the start of each season
There's not too much to take away from this chart, other than what Ducks fans and Sharks fans have known for a while -- it's been damn tough for one of these teams to pull too far away from the other. In 2005-06, both teams stayed neck-and-neck throughout the entire year, in 2006-07 the Ducks pulled ahead at the start of the season, and in 2007-08 the Sharks pulled ahead early. Even with those last two seasons, though, it's remarkable how much of the time the two teams have been within 8 standings points of each other (and there's never been more than 12 points separation).

At any rate, it's post-lockout Year Four starting tomorrow with a good ol' Ducks at Sharks matchup, and if you look at the cumulative points totals since the lockout, the Sharks have earned four more standings points than the Ducks have. It's remarkable that these teams have mirrored each other so closely on the standings board, especially since they seem to have been built around different strengths -- the Ducks have built primarily around their blueline while the Sharks have built primarily around their forwards.

It's tough to say what this coming year holds for both teams, and I doubt anything gets definitively answered in tomorrow's game, but it's one thing I'll certainly be paying attention to this year. The Ducks and Sharks finished one point apart in 05-06, three points apart in 06-07, and six points apart in 07-08; anyone care to speculate how many points will separate the two teams after game 82 this year?

More coming tomorrow. Go Ducks.

The Incredible Shrinking Cheechoo

(Disclaimer: I haven't actually seen any preseason games so this is all based on stats sheets, summaries, and hearsay. But numbers don't lie.)

Man, does it suck right now to be Jonathan Cheechoo or what? After last season's reasonable post-injury second half, you'd think that Cheech be feeling pretty good about things and settling in for a season next to good buddy Joe Thornton and potting in a good 40 or so goals. If you looked at Cheech's goals-per-game clip once he finally recovered from double-sports hernia surgery, it's about what you'd expect from a Rocket Richard winner.

I'm guessing when Todd McLellan first put his lines together, Cheechoo wasn't too happy about being bumped off of Thronton's wing. Ron Wilson had done that before but that was mostly to help Cheechoo find his game again while he was recovering from injury. From all accounts, Cheech is in the best shape of his career and he claims to be lighter and quicker than before, so this isn't a strategic move to accommodate injury.

Preseason, of course, is only the preseason, but it's still gotta be disconcerting to Cheechoo that 1) he's off the top line and 2) his ice time hasn't been that great so far. Here's his line from each of his preseason games:

Game 1: 5-2 win vs. Anaheim, 14:54 ice time, 1 assist, 2 shots, 0 missed shots

Game 2: 5-1 loss vs. Phoenix, 15:58 ice time, 0 points, 2 shots, 1 missed shot

Game 3: 4-3 OT win vs. Phoenix, 13:11 ice time, 0 points, 2 shots, 1 missed shot

Now you can say that his diminished ice time is due to McLellan's desire to keep everyone fresh (especially in the last game which was a back-to-back with travel) but Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are hitting the 20-minute mark in their games. However, what I find most disconcerting is that McLellan is preaching shots on goal and Cheechoo, who's got a dynamite shot in all forms, is hardly firing the puck off.

Luc Robitaille (cheap pop from Kings fans) used to talk about how he didn't think too much about shooting, he just shot as hard and as often as possible. The idea was that you get your shots off and get into a rhythm with them. I get the sense that Cheechoo's not doing that so far, and I don't know if he's got his head up his butt from being demoted or what. It's not like he needs Joe Thornton to score; this is a guy who put in 28 goals with Mike Ricci as his center through a combination of tenacity and lots of shots from all sorts of crazy angles. Thornton obviously makes this better with his passing, but he should still be a 30-goal guy without Big Joe.

Am I fretting about a few preseason games? Maybe a little bit, but the preseason is where habits develop, and habits can turn into bad trends which can turn into bad seasons. Shoot the damn puck, Cheech.

Anze Kopitar: What Needs Work

As I covered yesterday, Anze Kopitar is a very good hockey player. No player is perfect, however, and there's a few things I think Kopitar could work on. They're just little things and I fully expect him to improve on them during the upcoming season.

If this could not happen that'd be great too.

The biggest thing Kopitar needs to do is cut down on his turnovers. Kopitar ended up 8th in the league in giveaways with 85. If you'll look at the list, you'll notice that all the people at the top are good players; after all, you can't give the puck away a lot unless you're the one driving the play. Still, giveaways put your defense out of position and are never a good thing.* Most of Kopitar's giveaways come when he's entering the zone as defenders stand him up. The easiest solution is mixing up who carries the puck in and dumping it in occasionally. One person who does this well is Ryan Getzlaf, who can either carry it in or throw the puck into the corner and punish the defender who corrals it. Having Kopitar dump it in and then letting Brown destroy whoever touches it first seems like a good idea.

*Lubomir Visnovsky, Kopitar, and Alex Frolov were all in the top 20 in turnovers. I wonder if that means something...


Secondly, Kopitar needs to work on his positional defense. He's pretty good at stripping the puck but his focus away from the play needs work. Look at this goal, for example:



Ales Hemsky breezes into the zone and gets a quality scoring opportunity against a terrible, terrible goaltender* because Kopitar didn't recognize the play until it was too late. (Also, poor Lubo. How many times did he look like a dick because of someone else last season?) He has to recognize that better if he's going to be an elite two-way center in the NHL. I'm of the opinion that defensive play by forwards is underrated, but there's no real way to quantify it. Still, I can quantify that play and say that Kopitar cost us a goal there. That can't happen if he's going to play 20 minutes a night.
*Terrible.

Finally, I'd like Kopitar to work on his faceoffs. He's not bad by any means (49.5%), but most of the elite centers in the league win around 52-55% of their faceoffs. All young centers need work on their faceoffs though, so this one isn't a biggie... I mean, not a big deal. No, I don't use the word "biggie" in casual conversation, fuck off.


Anze Kopitar is one of the best young players in the league, but we can't shower him with rose petals 100% of the time. He could improve on none of these things and still be one of the most talked about players in the league, but he wouldn't help us win as many games as he should. On a team like the Kings it's hard to find good things to talk about, so I get why everyone loves Kopitar so much. I do too. But he's not infallible. He's a soon-to-be 21 year-old kid and he needs to work on getting better. I'm confident he will, too, because he's that kind of guy. Kopitar's great, but he's not one of the 10 best centers in the NHL. Yet.

Anze Kopitar: What He Did Well

32 G, 45 A, -15, 22 PIM

I don't know if you know this, but: Anze Kopitar is pretty good. He spends most of the game with the puck on his stick and is masterful at creating opportunities for himself and his teammates. Probably my favorite thing about Kopitar is his ability to change his game to counteract his defender's tactics. Kopitar thrived his first season because he outwaited his opponents. Most of the time when a defenseman tried to stand him up, he simply went around them and wrapped around the net. From there he could find Dustin Brown or Lubomir Visnovsky for a one-timer and an easy goal. This season, however, defenders changed their methods a little bit by forcing Anze Kopitar to the middle of the ice and towards a waiting helper. Kopitar counteracted that by shooting more. He decided that if the defender is going to give him that shot, he might as well take it. The result? Kopitar became a much more prolific scorer* while still setting up his teammates at a consistent rate. His first season, Kopitar had 20 goals. This season, he had 32.

*A lot of people may not realize it, but Kopitar does have an amazing shot. It's hard and quick off his stick, but not very accurate. He's worked on it, however, and it's quickly becoming a strength for him.

Another thing Kopitar improved upon was his rapport with Dustin Brown. In their first season, Kopitar was the puck handler and Dustin Brown was the net crasher and that was the extent of their relationship. Brown picked his game up noticeably when Kopitar injured his back at the end of '06-07 because he was actually given the puck and forced to take responsibility for his play. This was important because it showed Marc Crawford and Anze Kopitar that Brown could be relied on as an equal member of their partnership. This season, Kopitar passed the puck much more willingly to Brown, who could then either make his own play or give it back to Kopitar for a scoring opportunity. This change in their relationship not only improved both players but created an uncertainty in the minds of defenders that they could now exploit.

Kopitar was the engine on the 1st power play unit and led the team in scoring when up a man. The Kings were tied down by a certain, let's say "immobility" on the power play and were thus forced to do most of their damage through their forwards. Kopitar mostly played at the Joe Thornton spot, along the side of the boards in line with the faceoff circle. From there he could either pass it up to the point, throw it across to Cammalleri, or step in front and take his own shot. He had a little trouble when a defender would challenge him and get inside his stick and that's something he can improve on, but overall Kopitar is a valuable member of the Kings' power play.

One interesting thing to note is Kopitar's penalty kill play. He did not play on the penalty kill very often so he could rest, but when he did he was pretty effective. Despite playing less time than Jeff Giuliano, Kopitar still managed to end up tied for 2nd in points while on the penalty kill. His value on the penalty kill mostly lies on his ability to steal the puck, which he surpisingly led the team in. (I'd have bet any amount of money that Frolov would have the most takeaways on the team.) More importantly, Kopitar did this while taking very few penalties (11 on the year.) I wouldn't classify his defensive play as great quite yet, but it's about where you'd expect to 20 year-old to be.

Overall, Kopitar is awesome. Kopitar managed to build on his first season while adjusting to the NHL game. A lot of young players shoot out of the gate because they don't know that they're not supposed to be able to skate through an entire NHL team; when teams adjust to them, they often have trouble adjusting back. Kopitar has changed his game and has gone from a budding star to a legitimate NHL talent.

This May Only Interest Me: Aggression Penalties

Dustin Brown led the league with 311 hits, which is all very cool. More important, however, was the fact that Brown led the league in hits while still being remarkably clean. I was bored so I took a look at the top 3 leaders in hits (Brown, Mike Komisarek and Brenden Morrow) to see how many "aggression penalties" (elbowing, roughing, charging, etc.) each guy got. The result? Brown's worth is enhanced by the fact that he gets his hits without taking additional penalties. As a bonus, he hardly ever takes himself out of the game through fighting and often goads the other fighter into additional penalties.

Dustin Brown

311 hits
55 PIM
3 Fights

Dustin Brown only had 6 minutes of "aggression penalties," 2 roughs and 1 elbow. He had 3 fights:

-against Eric Brewer, who fought Brown because Brown clicked him with a high stick
-against Daymond Langkow, who received a 2-minute roughing penalty (and got his ass kicked)
-against Brent Seabrook, who got an instigator penalty for rightly fighting Brown after Dustin elbowed Jonathan Toews

Brown's other penalties were for hooks and trips and the like. That's pretty remarkable that he can get that many hits without getting many penalties. It says to me that Brown is looking for the play, not the hit. He could cut down on his other penalties, but that negative effect is likely outweighed by his excellent ability to draw penalties.

Mike Komisarek

266 hits
101 PIM
5 fights

Mike Komisarek had 12 minutes in aggression penalties: 5 roughs and an instigation. He had 5 fights and didn't goad an additional penalty in any of them. In the playoffs, Komisarek had 10 aggression penalty minutes in 12 games. I guess he got a little excited. Overall, Komisarek is getting the job done with his hitting but he needs to reign it in a little bit to cause more impact. Plus, the dude could stand to stop taking so many penalties period. He is his team's best penalty killer but he's usually the one in the box.

Brenden Morrow

260 hits
105 PIM
5 fights

Morrow had 18 aggression penalty minutes: 4 roughs, 2 elbows, 2 charges, and a knee. Eclectic. Morrow had 5 fights and took an additional penalty in one of them while goading an instigator in one. The problem with Morrow, at least to me, is who he fought: Steve Bernier, Aaron Voros, Nathan McIver, Adam Burish, Ryan Suter. Morrow is way too valuable to the Stars to be wasting his time in the penalty box with Aaron Voros.

(The guy really needs to calm down when he's playing the Ducks. He had 18 minutes in penalty in the 8 regular season games against them, a lot of them while battling Francois Beauchemin. That kind of makes me laugh. I mean, of all the people on the Ducks, you hate Beauchemin?)

Hits are like stolen bases in baseball. Sure, it's nice number, but you have to understand that there is risk associated with it. It's great if a guy steals 50 bases, but if he's getting thrown out a third of the time then it's kind of worthless. In the same way, Brenden Morrow's positive impact is likely countered by his penalties that take him off the ice completely. Aggression is great, but only if it's controlled and dedicated towards winning the game. Guys like Komisarek and Morrow are BJ Upton; Dustin Brown is Ichiro.



*I expected the difference in aggression penalties to be a little more extreme, to be honest. It looks like amount of aggression penalties you take is proportional to the amount of other penalties you get. That might invalidate this whole thing, I don't know, but I spent the time looking this up so I'm throwing it out there. It's possible that guys like Brenden Morrow don't care about the number of penalties they take because they think the stuff they get away with makes up for it. Maybe?

Dominant as an east-coast twentysomething

Well, I'm about half-way moved into my Irvine place, and I figured I could take a quick break from the packing/unpacking madness to resume my normal blogginess, specifically as it relates to Teemu Selanne, Power Play Specialist. The Finnish Flash may or may not have declared that he is returning to Southern California in September, depending how much you trust your Finnish.

I made a quick table below that attempts to answer one question: Despite Selanne taking most of last season off, how many NHLers have scored more regular-season power play goals than Teemu since the lockout?

Top PPG Scorers since the Lockout
(reg. season only)

(click image to enlarge)
Answer: Three, and it's worth looking at some of the commonalities about them.

1. They all are more than a decade younger than Selanne. Really, these three players probably represent the new wave of goal scorers, and Heatley, Ovechkin, and Kovalchuk could be taking home the Rocket Richard Trophy for a long while.

2. They all play in the eastern conference. I'm not sure how strong an effect this is, but it is worth noting that since the lockout, the eastern conference has allowed 204 more power play goals than the western conference in 311 fewer power play opportunities. Remember, in the old schedule nearly 90% of a regular season was played against same-conference opponents.

3. They all played significantly more power play minutes than Teemu. This is really the stat that got me: not only are these comparables way younger and in the easier conference, but look how their power play total ice time compares with Old Man Selanne.

• Heatley scored 6% more PP goals in 25% more games and 27% more PP minutes.
• Ovechkin scored 18% more PP goals in 30% more games and 56% more PP minutes.
• Kovalchuk scored 22% more PP goals in 27% more games and 74% more PP minutes.

Unreal. Teemu is a PP freak!

Now I don't really want to knock any of Heatley, Ovechkin, or Kovalchuk (also: Tomas Vanek and Evgeni Malkin were both on pace to make this list over just the last two seasons -- they also are a decade younger than Selanne and play in the east): these names will be carrying the goal-scoring title for a long while. I also should stress that while I am comparing individual production numbers, PP success is very unit-based.

No, I'm just here to point out again how freaking remarkable Teemu's man-advantage production has been since his return to SoCal. While seemingly power play goals is a stat that has been dominated by eastern-conference children of the 80s, at least one representative of the old-school-west is still hanging at the top of the charts, making us marvel again and again in Anaheim.

C'mon. One more year, Teemu. Go Ducks.

Kings Schedule Review

-The Kings are at home for most of the first half of the season and are basically on the road the last 2 months. They have a 4-game home stand right at the beginning of the season, then 2 games against St. Louis and Nashville, and then a 7-game home stand. Is this done to make sure the Kings get home revenue before they're completely out of the playoff race in January? Probably!

-The Kings open the season with a home-and-home against the San Jose Sharks, meaning the home opener will bring Rob Blake back to Los Angeles. I've been practicing my boos and you should too. I recommend a little lemon tea with a hint of honey after booing practice to soothe the throat. And remember, boo from your diaphragm, not your throat. You could damage the chords if you're not careful.

-If you're reading this from Toronto, feel free to come to Los Angeles on December 1st to watch the Maple Leafs play the Kings. The average temperature should be around, oh, 65 degrees? Or you can just watch on TV and wonder why the people in the crowd aren't wearing jackets.

-The Kings got the Capitals, Flyers, and Devils twice from the Eastern Conference. Does that seem weird to anyone else, that the Kings finished 2nd to last the season prior and now they get the Southeast division champ and two playoff teams from the Atlantic? It's not that big a deal, but you'd think they'd get the Islanders and the Lightning or something.

-The worst week of the year is going to Feb. 22nd-Feb.28th. The Kings have a road trip that week that sees them play the Wild on Tuesday, the Flyers on Wednesday, and then the Red Wings on Friday to finish things off. That sucks, especially because they have to fly to Minnesota, then fly to Pennsylvania, then fly all the way back to Michigan. Then they get one glorious day off and then play Chicago and Columbus on alternating days. If the Kings aren't out of the playoff picture by February, this trip should just about do it.

-Sneaky awesome game: Monday, February 16th. The Kings won't be very good so they'll probably have some sort of promotion. They're playing the Thrashers, which means you can see Ilya Kovalchuk and Toby Enstrom live. And, the Thrashers will suck so the Kings might actually win. These are all the ingredients of a successful home game. Just don't buy tickets for a while so I can get mine first.

Overall, this change in the schedule should help the Kings. Their division is probably going to be the best division in hockey once again, so the Kings are going to need to perform against the Eastern Conference if they're going to have any chance of finishing above last place. The biggest thing I noticed when I was looking at this schedule? Man, I wish hockey was back.

New NHL Schedule, Projected Winners and Losers

For the last three post-lockout seasons, each team's regular season schedule has consisted of 32 divisional games, 40 in-conference games, and 10 out of conference games. Starting this year, the new format will feature 24 divisional games, 40 in-conference games, and 18 out of conference games (essentially eight divisional games have been moved out of conference).

So I decided to take an overly-simplistic look at which teams might enjoy the new schedule, and which teams might not. Basically, this table looks at the results from last season, and shows where teams got their standings points. The last two columns project how those results would have looked in the new schedule, and what the point difference projects to be.

(click image to enlarge)
Teams that struggled in their own division will probably enjoy the new schedule; same with teams that dominated the opposite conference. Take a look at where your team stands, and feel free to comment on my lazy, overly-assumptive approach.

What Now? Part 4

There seems to be a lot of confusion in Kingsville recently. Basically, no one knows what the hell is going on and no one has any idea what Dean Lombardi is thinking. Lombardi recently did an epic 7-part interview with the Press-Enterprise that can clear things up somewhat, but he's kind of all over the place and I know you people hate reading so I'll try to explain things a little bit.

It seems to me, from interviews and other shit I've culled over the past year, that Lombardi's original plan was this: scrap together a core centered around Cammalleri, Frolov and Visnovsky and go with that until Johnson and Kopitar are older. Preissing and Handzus would work in that core and then transition to a lesser role as other Kings' prospects came up. This obviously didn't work. Cammalleri got hurt and Visnovsky sucked and the Kings finished 2nd to last. Lombardi realized that the Kings wouldn't make the playoffs as currently constructed and decided to trade Cammalleri (who would probably leave the team next year) and Visnovsky (who would be too old when the younger players are in their prime) for players that will be with the team when the younger core is ready.

People are upset because they thought the Kings would make the playoffs this upcoming year; the bungling of free agency and the failure to sign Stuart or Orpik has made it clear that it's not going to happen. The Kings aren't good, but they aren't rebuilding anymore either. Their reserve list is full of promising young prospects and they have no tradeable assets (unless someone really wants Derek Armstrong). There isn't anything the Kings can do except wait, and I think that kills some people.

Next season, the Kings will learn a lot about who they are and who deserves to stay with the team. We'll discover if the 1st wave of prospects (Boyle, Moulson, Purcell and Piskula) have panned out and then determine which prospects will be available to acquire a good defenseman. Then the Kings will be ready to make the playoffs and start ascending the ladder. This year will be hard, but believe me, it'll be worth it. Worst case scenario, the Kings land either John Tavares or Victor Hedman. Not bad.

Lombardi has fucked up a couple of times in his tenure, but his overall vision has been excellent. He came to a team that had a potential superstar and he built a team that will have a great supporting cast when that superstar is in his prime. He's acquired 2/3rds of our core for the future (Bernier and Johnson), he traded for Patrick O'Sullivan, he signed Ted Purcell, and he's drafted excellently in the admittedly short time period we can evaluate. All the other stuff doesn't really matter because the core that will lead the Kings to the playoffs is intact. I mean, look at Dan Cloutier: if he had come to the team and played like Roberto Luongo, it wouldn't have mattered. They wouldn't have won the Cup. What Lombardi is doing is biding time until the young guys on the team have matured, and his way is the best way to win a Cup. There's still pitfalls to be traversed, like signings said young guys and hoping none of them develop a cocaine addiction and all that, but the idea is sound. The Kings will be very good in a couple of years and it'll be fun and I'll make fun of the Ducks and the Sharks all the time, I swear. Until then, though, we wait. Hey, we're Kings fans; waiting is what we do.

What Now? Part 2

Last time, I outlined why the Kings' defense is fucked and how they can go about fixing it. To cheer us (read: me) up, let's take a look at the offense. As expected, the Kings didn't sign anyone and are expected to fill holes from within. Those unfamiliar with the Kings might think that they're fucked on offense too, what with them losing 3/5 of their top power play unit* and all; however,** I think the Kings are going to score more than they did last year. A lot more. There's a couple of reasons for this: one, the Kings have all the important people coming back, and two, the Kings' bottom six is going to be infinitesimally better than last year's. Also, since everyone good on the Kings is young, the gradual improvement that comes with age should help too. Shall I go painfully into detail, fully aware that no one reads this but my brother and my parole officer? Sure, why not. What else am I going to do, take a dump? I can multitask.

*Of course, that power play finished 17th in North America... well, 18th. What, the Guadalajara Guerrillas have an amazing team.

**I had a teacher that claimed you couldn't start a sentence with "however," that you had to start it with a semi-colon. Is that bullshit or what? Seems like I've seen that before. Oh well, I'll just claim creative license.

This picture seem out of place? Creative license!

The Kings losing Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky is going to hurt their offense. Losing Lubo especially, because he was basically the only player Frolov had to play off last year. The power play system the Kings ran last year didn't require a power play quarterback on the blue line, though, so losing them doesn't hurt too much on that front. As long as the Kings have Kopitar and Frolov, their power play will be fine. Acquiring Jarret Stoll will basically replace Cammy on the power play (hopefully he won't hold onto the puck so Goddamn long) and planting Brian Boyle in front of the net will kick ass. The Kings still need another guy that can help out on the power play, but overall I think they'll be fine.

The 1st line is the 1st line. Kopitar and Brown will be amazing and even better than they were last year. I'll leave it at that because if I try to write more it'll end up being 30 pages of love imagery and no one wants to read that.

The Kings' 2nd line will be in a state of flux, as it's mostly been Frolov-Armstrong-Cammalleri the past 2 years. This year, Jarret Stoll will likely step into that 2nd line center role. He's had a rough few years and I think the best thing for him would be to just stick him there all year and let him leech off Frolov. C'mon, he's gotta be better than Derek Armstrong, right? Cammy will be a little touger to replace, but the Kings can probably put either Ted Purcell or Patrick O'Sullivan in his spot and not skip a beat. His talent is tough to replace, but his output from last year isn't.


The Kings will be replacing Scott Thornton, Brian Willsie, Matt Ellis and Jeff Giuliano with Brad Richardson, Brian Boyle, Ted Purcell and Matt Moulson. The old 4 combined to score 12 goals in 207 games. The new 4? 12 goals in 62 games during limited call-ups last year. They're not regular rookies, either; they're all older than Kopitar and they're going to be running full-speed from day 1. Purcell in particular should probably be a Calder candidate next year and I imagine Brian Boyle will have a season very similar to Dustin Penner's rookie year. The Kings' offense is going to be bigger, faster, and non-Brian Willsie'd next year. Most importantly, they are going to be very young and very hungry. Michal Handzus, Kyle Calder, Raitis Ivanans and Alex Frolov are going to be the only forwards over the age of 25 next year. It's going to be kind of amazing to watch.


It's funny, the Kings were 15th in goals last year but I look at that team and I think, "They should've scored a lot more." Think what would have happened if Cammalleri hadn't ripped his rib muscle or if Ladislav Nagy hadn't been hit by that turnip truck. (What the hell happened to that guy anyway?) I think the biggest difference between this year and last is that the Kings will actually have depth. If Brown gets hurt the Kings won't have to put Scott Thornton on the top line; they'll have Matt Moulson or Gabe Gauthier ready to step in. They may have a shitty defense, but the Kings offense is going to break a lot of hearts next year.



Just for shits and giggles*, here's an early guess as to what our offense will look like next year:

Moulson-Kopitar-Brown
Frolov-Stoll-O'Sullivan
Calder-Handzus-Purcell
Ivanans/Armstrong-Boyle-Richardson


*Do people giggle while they shit? Maybe I'm doing it wrong.

What Now? Part 1

Short Answer: The Kings are boned.

Long Answer: The Kings are really, really boned. According to Rich Hammond, the Kings had 3 targets this off-season and were expected to acquire 2 of them. Those men were Rob Blake, Brad Stuart, and Brooks Orpik. Because of this, Lubo became expendable and we traded him. (Whoops!) Blake boned us, Brad Stuart signed with the Red Wings (who are just going to fuck everyone next year), and Orpik signed a really long deal to stay with the Penguins. So, basically, the Kings are boned on defense. Here's what we have right now, not assuming prospects:

( )-Johnson
Greene-( )
Preissing-Gauthier/Harrold

So, all the Kings need is a top-pairing defenseman and a 2nd-line guy. (That's it!) The Kings are okay on the penalty kill, but our power play is going to be pretty atrocious if we can't find someone to fix it. Johnson could probably quarterback the power play, but he can't play top minutes in all 3 facets of the game. Last year, he only played penalty kill and even strength and he still averaged almost 27 minutes a game when Blake was gone. Preissing is good on that 2nd unit but that's about all he can muster; same with Harrold. Greene and Gauthier are both idiots and can't play on the power play. Basically, the Kings need to sign someone with a basic level of offensive acumen.* There's three different ways the Kings can go about solving their problem: free agency, trades, prospects. Let's look through each one and see if we can't find a glimmer of hope.

*Isn't it funny, last year all we had were shitty offensive defensemen, and now we don't have enough! Do you think that's funny? Well, it isn't. Don't laugh at the pain of others, you sadist.


Free Agency

Looking at the list of available defensemen, I'm not really seeing anyone that great. It's like that old Groucho Marx line, "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member." If a guy is willing to sign with this team then there's probably something wrong with him, whether he just wants the money or he wants to live by the beach or whatever. The best guy available is Jason Smith, but he's probably signing with a contender. He could probably be lured to LA with the promise of lots of playing time and a fuckton of money. But why would any free agent sign in LA, knowing that the Kings won't be good until they're gone? Plus, they would have to know that Lombardi would try to trade them at the first opportunity. I would much rather just sign with another team that I think might be good sometime in the life of my deal. So, that leaves the trade route.

Trades

The obvious one is Mathieu Schneider, the guy Sleek has been pimping for the past few weeks. The Ducks have a unique dilemma: they could get a good haul for Schneider from a contending team (like Ottawa), but they wouldn't really want to trade him to a team they might meet in the playoffs. Meanwhile, teams like the Panthers or the Thrashers don't really need Schneider enough to offer anything for him because they're going to suck with or without him. The Kings, on the other hand, need Schneider to quarterback our power play and keep things a little respectable. I would have no qualms about trading a young forward prospect to the Ducks for Schneider. This trade makes sense for both sides, yet somehow I know in my heart that it will never, ever happen. Call it women's intuition.


Another option is Brian McCabe, the besieged defenseman from Toronto. McCabe is both more expensive AND shittier than Lubo, but he could probably be had for cheap and he is a left-handed shot. I don't think it's worth it, but I'm just throwing him out there. 3,2,1... okay, now there should be about 4 blog posts on Toronto sites with trade offers like "McCabe, Tlusty and a 2nd for Frolov and Brown." (Why is there always a 2nd-rounder when someone makes a ridiculous proposal?)

Then there's always Jay Buowmeester. I don't even know what he would command or what Florida would want for him, but a guy can dream, can't he?

(The Sharks have too many defensemen, but we're not trading for any of them. Fuck those guys.)

But any of these trade options have 2 flaws: the Kings will have to give up something from their prospect pool and it won't really make them that better. I mean, is it really better losing 4-2 as opposed to 5-2? The Kings would only make a trade for reputation's sake and I only put it up as an option because I don't want to watch them lose all next year. In all likelihood, the Kings are just going to go with the 3rd option: prospects.

Prospects


The good news: if you're going to have to go with young guys, these are the young guys you want to go with. The Kings have a nice mix of young prospects that could eventually play top minutes and older guys with low ceilings that could step in immediately. Here's a short list:

Drew Doughty
Colten Teubert
Thomas Hickey (although he's coming off ankle surgery)
Alec Martinez
Joe Piskula
Drew Bagnall

Most likely making the team is Drew Doughty, if for no other reason than he wants to. But he'll probably play limited minutes, as he is only 18 and no defenseman has played in the NHL at that age since Jay Buowmeester. I really doubt the Kings will take 2 18 year-olds, so that leaves Teubert out. Hickey could always make the team, but I kind of doubt it since he's coming off that ankle surgery thing. Joe Piskula and Drew Bagnall are both low-level guys that played in Manchester last year and would be an option if the younger guys don't perform in training camp.

The guy I think will be the biggest surprise next year? Alec Martinez. He's the guy from Miami of Ohio and can play both power play and penalty kill. He's a mix of the two groups above: he's got a fairly high ceiling but he's old enough to step in with limited growing pains. This is just me talking out of my ass, but I think he could end up saving the Kings next year.

There is a 4th option, the waiver wire, but I won't presume to know which defensemen may get waived in the future. Just something to keep an eye on.

In Conclusion

The Kings' defense is fucked. I firmly believe that Dean Lombardi only traded Lubomir Visnovsky because he thought he could sign Stuart and Blake. Now they're elsewhere and the Kings' defense is shaping up to be Jack Johnson and the Misfits. I don't know what Lombardi is going to do now, but he has to do something. Right now, the Kings have the worst defense in the league.