Ducks Preview, Part 1: Defining what needs to be replaced

Well, now that camp is halfway done and it’s become apparent that Niedermayer or Selanne have no imminent plans to rejoin the team, I think I can finally sit down and start writing up a season preview. Previewing this Anaheim team is still a bag of questions, however, as I don’t really know how forward lines or defensive pairs will be laid out, but in any case a good first step is to determine precisely what’s missing from last year. Essentially, this can be boiled down to three significant players and their contributions: Teemu Selanne, Dustin Penner, and Scott Niedermayer. These three combined for 103 goals over 103 games (regular season plus playoffs), but let’s delve in a bit to see where those goals really came from.

To study this, I am going to compare Selanne & Penner’s output to the results of the rest of the Anaheim forwards. Then I will compare Niedermayer’s output to the results of the rest of the defensemen. Finally, I will look at all three players’ results compared to the rest of the team.

Note that this strictly is dealing with on-ice productivity, ignoring such factors as experience, leadership, salary, or popularity. I will also be talking a bit about quality of minutes based on Behind the Net’s quality of teammate and quality of opposition metrics, which basically provide a context for the ice time based on the other players on the ice.

EVEN STRENGTH

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 15 / 676, Opposition ranking: 566 / 676
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 104 / 676, Opposition ranking: 572 / 676
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 486 / 676, Opposition ranking: 132 / 676

Player	ES TOI	ES G	ES A	ES Pts	ES Plus	ES Minus
Teemu Selanne	1,364	28	27	55	+72	–42
Dustin Penner	1,125	23	13	36	+48	–44
Rest of forwards	11,339	125	185	310	+478	–386
Selanne / Penner Pct.	18%	29%	18%	23%	20%	19%
Scott Niedermayer	1,803	8	35	43	+80	–67
Rest of defense	7,593	17	73	90	+320	–253
Niedermayer Pct.	19%	32%	32%	32%	20%	21%
All three players	4,292	59	75	134	+200	–155
Rest of team	18,932	142	258	400	+798	–639
Three Player Pct.	18%	29%	23%	25%	20%	20%

Takeaways: Both Selanne and Penner had relatively easy ice time, playing mostly with teammates that produced at even strength and against opponents that did not. Using that icetime, Selanne and Penner were able to score 29% of Anaheim forwards’ goals and 23% of the points, using 18% of the available ice time. Those are lofty numbers, but there is plenty of scoring ice time available to help replace that production.

Niedermayer, on the other hand, played much more difficult even-strength shifts, and despite this was able to score 32% of Anaheim defensemen’s goals and points using 19% of the available ice time. These are going to be much more difficult points to replace at even-strength, as it will have to be done with some defensive-oriented teammates and against some lofty competition.

Overall, the three players produced 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 25% of Anaheim’s even-strength points.

POWER PLAY

Teemu Selanne—Teammate ranking: 4 / 428, Opposition ranking: 406 / 428
Dustin Penner—Teammate ranking: 23 / 428, Opposition ranking: 353 / 428
Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 8 / 428, Opposition ranking: 356 / 428
(note that these rankings are based on 5-on-4 only)

Player	PP TOI	PP G	PP A	PP Pts	PP Plus	PP Minus
Teemu Selanne	479	25	29	54	+68	–3
Dustin Penner	315	9	8	17	+37	–3
Rest of forwards	1,604	43	83	126	+215	–17
Selanne / Penner Pct.	33%	44%	31%	36%	33%	26%
Scott Niedermayer	582	10	27	37	+77	–7
Rest of defense	982	18	56	74	+125	–6
Niedermayer Pct.	37%	36%	33%	33%	38%	54%
All three players	1,376	44	64	108	+182	–13
Rest of team	2,586	61	139	200	+340	–23
Three Player Pct.	35%	42%	32%	35%	35%	36%

Takeaways: By the end of the playoffs, Selanne, Penner, and Niedermayer made up 3/5 of the Ducks’ top power play unit. And even though the Ducks’ PP sputtered towards the end of the playoffs, it still was one of the best performing units throughout all of last year.

Because of the PP dominance, you can see that all three players have very easy-looking quality of icetime, though I should caution that the Teammate ranking is largely based on playing with each other, something that replacement players will not have the benefit of. Still, the players who will need to replace this offense will be given the opportunity to play with the best available teammates, so I’m not sure how these metrics will be affected.

Power play results are a pretty tricky concept, especially when overhauling most of a top unit. It’s tough to get a handle on how chemistry, positions, or roles will change. Selanne in particular appears the most difficult to replace, as his 25 regular season power play goals led the entire league.

One strange factor to note, though: despite the lofty numbers, this trio of players only combined for one postseason power play goal. I guess the encouraging thing is that the Ducks were still able to win despite the special teams dropoff.

PENALTY KILL

(Both Selanne and Penner played less than 10 minutes of PK time, so they are exempted.)

Scott Niedermayer—Teammate ranking: 160 / 395, Opposition ranking: 68 / 395
(note that these rankings are based on 4-on-5 only)

Player	SH TOI	SH G	SH A	SH Pts	SH Plus	SH Minus
Scott Niedermayer	415	0	0	0	+2	–46
Rest of defense	1,271	0	4	4	+10	–106
Niedermayer Pct.	25%	0%	0%	0%	17%	25%

Takeaways: This is why Scott Niedermayer is amazing. Alongside his impressive even-strength and power play assignments, he also threw in quite a bit of shorthanded play as well. His results don’t look terribly spectacular, but considering his difficulty of 4-on-5 minutes and his regular spot on 2-man disadvantages, it is significant time that will need to be replaced as well.

THE BOTTOM LINE

These three players represent 29% of Anaheim’s even-strength goals and 42% of Anaheim’s power play goals, and all told represent one full goal-scored per game. That said, there is some pretty attractive ice time available to help offset these losses. With this in mind, let’s take a quick glance at the two main replacements that were brought in this summer:

Mathieu Schneider: Schneider is a pretty optimal replacement for Scott Niedermayer’s even-strength and power play production, I think. He certainly won’t have the versatility and endurance to replace all of Niedermayer’s ice time, but if Scott’s penalty kill can be absorbed by other defensemen (Shane Hnidy or Sean O’Donnell, perhaps), then I think the Ducks can avoid a huge dropoff in their blueline production.

Todd Bertuzzi: This is where things get complicated. In a good scenario, Bertuzzi could pick up Selanne’s slack on the top line; in a bad scenario, Bertuzzi is only good enough to pick up Penner’s slack on the second line. But for sure, he will not be able to replace both of them, and whichever one’s offense he cannot replace will have to be offset from within the organization (a tall order, especially if it’s Selanne’s production). Bertuzzi certainly has upside that could possibly replace Selanne, but it’s tough to know for sure until he sees some regular ice time.

Anyway, it’s clear looking at the players leaving and the replacements that Anaheim (in the absence of any future roster moves) is due for a drop-off; there’s just not enough talent coming back to replace the talent that is leaving. Of course, all this gets thrown out the window should either Selanne or Niedermayer decide to pick up the skates and start playing again, but in their absence, how much will the offense suffer? And how much will that affect results?

I don’t have a solid idea of how this season will turn out for Anaheim’s title defense, but this post gives an idea of what the on-ice obstacles will be. It certainly promises to be a revealing year for Anaheim, though, and while I can’t predict it very well, I’m still looking forward to it with eagerness.

Go Ducks.

Schneidermayer joins the LockoUK

Schneidermayer (noun) – a term used to refer to defenseman Mathieu Schneider in a situation where he is signed to replace the minutes of retirement-muller Scott Niedermayer.

LockoUK (noun) – a collective scheme by players to utilize whatever means necessary (surgery, injury, or possible retirement) to avoid taking intercontinental flights for regular season games in London.

I’ve been under the weather the past couple of days, but fortunately, there hasn’t been a terrible amount of Ducks news to report. Anaheim is 2-1-1 through four games this preseason, but hasn’t played a full-lineup game to really evaluate.

It’s not all meaningless news this preseason, though. Mathieu Schneider, playing in his first game in a Ducks jersey last week, fractured his ankle and will miss four weeks recovering. It’s not a huge setback, as most of that recovery time will happen before the season starts, but it does add another name to the list of Ducks stars skipping out on England.

Now I was going to write a piece about how I don't care that much about this “LockoUK” phenomenon, but my roommate has chastised me for my lackadaisical attitude towards the season openers in London. “You’re always so negative. Why not draw some cartoons celebrating NHL hockey's trip to England?”

So, without any further ado, here’s two cartoons—one from my roommate and one from me—meant to put a somewhat positive spin on the Ducks visiting London. Enjoy!

Sharks release new home and road jerseys

Here are a couple of videos from the press conference in San Jose unveiling the new San Jose Sharks home and road RBK Edge jerseys. Mike Grier, Joe Thornton and GM Doug Wilson talk about the new design, and take a few shots at their teammates as well.

The new RBK jersey is a little more streamlined, cuts down on weight and water absporption, and has a lot of new technology to increase ventilation, but how is it going to look on your average NHL fan? Sleek may have the metabolism of a thoroughbred racing armadillo, but the rest of us drink beer and eat polish sausage simultaneously while sitting on a couch or a bar stool yelling at Kerry Fraser.

There was a small amount of vocal opposition to the new Sharks logo, and there will be the same amount for the new jersey design, but both will grow on fans quickly enough that they can get back to hating on Anaheim and Los Angeles forthwith. I looked through the press release from RBK and could not find any information on how smog would affect the gains of the new RBK Edge uniform system. Sleek or RK can post a followup on that.

War Brad Stuart.

Season (P)Review: Jason Labarbera

Last Season: 39 W, 2.20 GAA, .933 GAA (AHL)

Word That Best Describes His Season: Frustrating.


I am hereby declaring a moratorium on all King’s goaltending talk until the season begins. Yes, everyone knows Cloutier sucked last year. Yes, everyone knows the Kings didn’t bring in a goaltender during the off-season. (Who the hell were they supposed to bring in anyway? The Sharks probably wouldn’t have sent Toskala to L.A. and Manny Fernandez isn’t any better than what we have now. Please, tell me.) Let’s just shut up about it until we know if it’s actually something to be concerned about.

That save was unproven.

The biggest problem I have with the articles (here’s the latest one) that claim that the Kings are doomed because of their goaltending is that they just completely dismiss Jason Labarbera. He’s not some unproven 21 year-old kid; he’s 27 and played well in his first NHL action two years ago before something happened with his personal life that caused him to miss about a month of the season. He’s won the Baz Bastien award (the AHL’s Vezina) twice and was completely dominant down there last year. He would have been starting for the Kings by November last year if they had been able to call him up. I would be shocked if Labarbera has a save percentage less than .905 at the end of the season. He’s the kind of guy that will start off playing well and then the same idiots who wrote that the Kings were doomed will write new articles talking about how he came out of nowhere.

UNPROVEN UNPROVEN UNPROVEN

I know that I probably get more annoyed than most because I read every single article that comes out about the Kings, but seriously people, it takes 15 seconds to type “Jason Labarbera” into Google and find his stats on Hockeydb.com or something. If Labarbera can play like he did two years ago (when he had a 2.89 GAA and a .900 Sv. %), then I think we’ll be okay. Not great, but okay. Until the situation changes, why don’t we all just take a deep breath.

***

Also, Eklund thinks the Kings have a shot at signing Selanne. I don't even know what to say to that.

Season (P)Review: Dustin Brown

I am conflicted about Dustin Brown. Intellectually, I think he doesn't deserve a top forward position because his game is so one-dimensional; emotionally, I love him because that one dimension is so awesome. I got tired of the two parts of my psyche constantly bickering about him so I told them to decide the issue once and for all. Here's the transcript of that debate:

Intellectual Rudy

Intellectual Rudy: My dear boy, I’m sorry, but there is just no way Dustin Brown is anything above a replacement level player at this stage in his development. He doesn’t move without the puck well, is constantly out of position on defense, and can’t-

Emotional Rudy

Emotional Rudy: -BOOOO!!!. I don’t want to hear your “facts,” College Boy. Dustin Brown is fuckin’ awesome. Remember that one hit against Joe Thornton?* He was all like, “Boom, Bitch!” Hahahaha… wait, what was I talking about?

IR: Yes, but the hit in question was after Thornton had completed his pass and therefore had little effect on the game. Most of Brown’s hits are like that: visually stunning, but ultimately negligible in value.

ER: Yeah, but… boom! Hahaha!

IR: I fail to see the point in your “argument.” (*Chuckles, stirs brandy)

ER: Yeah, well, I fail to see the point in your face! (*Guffaws, pounds beer)

IR: Why, that doesn’t even make-

ER: -anyway, fuck you. Brown is way cooler than you. Besides, he’s only 23, and most power forwards take longer to develop in the NHL.

IR: Why, yes, that’s true…

ER: Plus, did you hear that last night Brown destroyed Andy McDonald and then kicked Sean O’Donnell’s ass when O’Donnell tried to stand up for his teammate?

IR: No, I hadn’t heard that. That’s pretty… awesome. Perhaps you’re right, my friend. I guess I underestimated you.

ER: Cool...so now what?

IR: Hmmm... I don't know.

ER: ...wanna get drunk?

IR: Indeed. Where's my snifter?

ER: God, you are so gay.

*This Hit:

Season (P)Review: Brad Stuart

There is not a person in the world I care less about than Brad Stuart.

Sharks training camp Videopalooza

Team A vs Team B scrimmage opened the Sharks training camp in San Jose on Friday.



Media Day interviews with Jeremy Roenick, Jonathan Cheechoo, Evgeni Nabokov, and head coach Ron Wilson.


There are a lot of questions as the Sharks start training camp about who will be the backup goaltender behind Nabokov, which defenseman will play his way into the lineup after the loss of Hannan, and what the forward lines will shake out with Jeremy Roenick and several prospects vying for spots on all 4 lines (if you listen to head coach Ron Wilson's interview above).

Playing a GM on the internet, at this early date I like Dimitri Patzold as the backup goaltender. Good size (6-0, 195), solid positionally, more experience as a starter at the AHL level. I think he is more NHL ready. Although German goalie Thomas Greiss may be more athletic and have a higher upside, he only has 1 season of hockey in North America under his belt. He will grow into his talent quicker with another season as the go-to guy in Worcester of the AHL. But this goaltending competition will probably boil down to who has a better training camp.

One television reporter asked goaltender Evgeni Nabokov if he has heard of any of the goaltenders vying for the backup role. Nabokov was understandably a little animated in his response. Evgeni also talked about how his goaltending coach Warren Strelow, who died last year, helped goaltenders in the organization by being a positive influence instead of focusing on the negative. One season ticket holder I spoke with said that Strelow was the first ever goaltending coach, and wondered what his lasting influence would be within the Sharks system after his passing. A good question.

On defense, the dark horse is Alexei Semenov. A very intelligent and articulate guy, and one who stands a legitimate 6-foot-6, 235 pounds. Chara-esque. Rob Davison and Doug Murray were the #7 and #8 defenseman last year, and honestly they would be starting in the top 6 for most NHL teams. A few people speculated about 2006 first round draft pick Ty Wishart (6-4, 205) taking the Marc-Edouard Vlasic pipeline directly into the NHL, but I think he might be a year away. Vlasic was not only the best defenseman on the ice last year at the rookie tournament in Anaheim, he was also the best defenseman on the ice a couple of days during training camp last season. And again, you can hear coach Ron Wilson say that Vlasic was the best defenseman for several regular and postseason games in the NHL last season. A rare compliment for a rookie.

Who will pick up Hannan's minutes against opponent's top lines is a question, who will fill out the 6/7/8 slots is another, but how will the Sharks address a lack of scoring or a lack of initiating offense from the blueline is a question that sticks out for me. Detroit with Nicklas Lidstrom, and Anaheim with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, showed the need for a top defenseman to take control on the offensive side of the ice in the playoffs. The Sharks have two candidates with all of the promise in the world, the tongue wagging bolt of German lightning Christian Ehrhoff, and Hobey Baker winner and 2-time NCAA champion Matt Carle. Time to show me the money, and start drilling pucks at the net.

The front lines for San Jose are anyone's guess at this point. The top line at the end of last season was Michalek-Thornton-Cheechoo, but Michalek-Marleau-Bernier were unstoppable for long stretches. Wilson mentioned that he is not just going to stick Jeremey Roenick on the 4th line for 5-7 minutes a night, and Wilson has a history of giving players who have success as much ice time as they can handle. What I did not hear mentioned was whether Roenick would be asked to contribute in key defensive situations. Clearing the puck at critical junctures, or answering the parade of teams trying to intimidate the Sharks physically in the postseason are possibly more important than Roenick's goal scoring prowess to be honest. The Sharks are not going to be a team struggling to find goals at any point during the season.

Devin Setoguchi almost made the team his first time out, and I think he is a near lock to make it this time around. He has definitely put on some size, and he has a quick and deadly accurate shot. I did not see 2007 first round pick Logan Couture skate in the Team A vs Team B scrimmage today, or if I did see him I did not recognize him. The players only had a small number on the back of their helmet about the size of a Canadian loony.

More photos and notes from the San Jose training camp will be up on Sharkspage.

BoC uniform parade

NHL 08 screenshots courtesy of this site, discovered through Mirtle. Reactions?

Guest Post: Orange Rhymes With Sucks

My roommate, who goes by Megalodon (oddly enough, that's not a nom de plume; that's his real name), is a Sharks fan. Like all Sharks fans, he's smart, socially awkward, and very, very smug. He's been worried about the Sharks' new jerseys lately, and since I'm sure you're tired of reading my 8,000 word screeds about the Kings' 3rd liners, I told him to write something up. Here's what he came up with:


As a loyal Sharks fan in exile deep in DucKing territory, the image of my home team is very important to me. I have many fond memories of riding the train from my home town in the Bay Area to the arena for a game. Amidst the normal assortment of train riders – college students, drunks, and guys who just got out of prison for robbing a bank and don’t want to buy a knife from another guy on the train (long story) – were a few good souls proudly displaying their chosen uniform - teal. Since the Sharks let go of their original jerseys (which, no debate, sucked ass), they’ve had an edgy, stylish look that has served them well. Every game in San Jose the arena is a sea of cool (in temperature and in awesomeness) colors: teal, silver, and black. They had an identity and a color-scheme that stood out in the league, and I loved it.

I’m not here to complain about the new logo. It’s fine. It’s a mean Shark biting a stick, so they kept the spirit of the original. What does concern me, however, are all the rumors that have been going around about the new jerseys making a much bigger deal of something that’s thankfully been a minor part of Sharks history thus far – orange. The Sharks have always had a touch of orange in their logo, and the updated version emphasized it a little bit, which was fine. It’s never been on their jerseys before, and so orange and me got along fine. I was ready to dismiss the rumors about the new orange jersey until I saw pictures of the Sharks players at last weekend’s pacific division tournament:





They’re wearing the old uniforms, but the pants and gloves they’ll use this season. Do you see what I see? Did your heart just sink out of your ass? Yeah, me too. There’s an awful lot of ORANGE on those accessories. So much orange that it would look quite strange if there wasn’t a good amount of it on the new jerseys.

I am anxious. I am nauseous. I am filled with fear and loathing.

Color-wise, the team will still stand out from the pack - just like the dude at the party with the lampshade on his head. If I do something drastic Monday when the team unveils the new jerseys, let this be a record of what drove me to it – the cursed color orange.

Bonus artist's conception of the new jerseys here!

Pensblog made me do it: Season Previews

Well, despite my offseason commitment to avoid all sorts of season previews until there was definitive news on the retirement front, I'm a guy who can't say no to Pensblog. They've been running a fantastic series all September where different bloggers contribute team previews for the Pensblog readers, and both Rudy and I got hit up to preview the Kings and Ducks.

You can check out Rudy's piece here and my Duck preview here, and can scroll around the September archives to see what more teams have been up to this summer. And someday soon, I'm guessing, I'll get around to doing a BoC preview of what to expect out of a Ducks squad without Scott or Teemu. Enjoy!

BoC Gameday—IT’S HOCKEY TIME!

Today: Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, 7 pm
Saturday, Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, 7:30 pm

Well, it’s a preseason half-lineup game that I won’t see or hear, but it’s still an NHL game that I can write about, dammit! I probably won’t be doing many gameday posts this preseason, but seeing as it’s the start of a new BoC chapter, I gotta chip something in (feel free to do the same Rudy). After all, while summer SoCal coverage makes everyone hockey-starved, it has only been 100 days since my last gameday post—for Kings fans, they've had an extra 60 days off.

If you’re not a fan of watching the Ducks, it’s been a tough year for you. They were one of the only two teams playing meaningful hockey in June. They’ll be one of the only two teams playing meaningful hockey in September. And now, they’ll be playing two meaningless games this week before anyone else gets their preseason started.

Mirtle will tell us that preseason results can be a good predictor of regular season success, and while that’s generally true, let’s not forget what happened last year when these same teams matched up for the Ducks’ first preseason game—the Kings blew the Ducks out of their new logo with a 7-1 smashing. That didn’t turn out very predictive, though—L.A. rode that win to a 14th place finish, and Anaheim rebounded for a Stanley Cup.

Prediction: Who the hell cares? It’s preseason, baby. Just enjoy some no-pressure hockey and hope that nobody gets suspended very long.

This Duck fan is stocked up for the new season--are you?
Go Ducks.

Season (P)Review: Derek Armstrong

Last Season: 11 G, 33 A, 44 P, +13, 62 PIM

Word That Best Describes His Season: Adequate.

I don’t really like Derek Armstrong that much. He’s not really that good, he has stupid hair, and he’s old. I know it’s not entirely rational; he had a pretty good season last year and he’s only getting paid about a mil and a half this year and the next, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he’s not going to lead the team to glory. There's two rules that I live my life by: you don’t win friends with salad, and you don’t win Cups with Armstrong. I guess he's Toby to my Michael Scott: my hatred of him is probably a reflection of my own neuroses more than anything else.

If Derek Armstrong were food, he'd be a hot dog.

This year, though, I'm actually glad Armstrong is on the team. Last year, the Kings had 2 offensive lines, a “stopper” line (at least they were supposed to be), and a goon/shitty line. Armstrong didn’t fit because he wasn’t good enough to be on the top line (even though he was) and he gets paid a little too much to play on the 4th line. This year the Kings should be rolling three offensive lines, and I actually think Armstrong would fit perfectly as our third center. They wouldn’t play against the other team’s top line (that would be whatever line Handzus is on, I’d imagine), so the opportunity to get a couple of cheap goals is pretty good. I wouldn’t expect him to match last season’s totals, but something north of 30 points is reasonable.

"I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be."

I wrote in my very first post that I loathed Derek Armstrong, but I was admittedly being a little over-the-top in order to make an impression. (I ended up beating out Earl’s apathy in that he didn’t have the energy to find someone else; take that, apathy!) I’m not partial to Armstrong, but I guess he has his niche. He's not that important to the team anymore and I'd kind of prefer we kept it that way. As long as he doesn’t have to do anything more than chip in, I guess I’m happy with him on our team. I mean, it could be worse: we could have Jeremy Roenick again.

Scott, you lazy genius!

Dear Scott: I for one would like to say that I completely support your inability to make up your mind. Sure, retirement would have meant you could relax away from hockey, but not deciding, now there's a stroke of brilliance!

Not only do you avoid pesky hockey duties like training camp and flying to London and back, but you also get to steer clear of any PTAs or HOAs or any other serious household responsibilities. After all, how could you commit to anything long-term? You've still gotta remain available for hockey, just in case you stumble on some motivation or conscience, right?

One lazy guy to another, I salute you, soldier. You've played enough games hurt that I can allow some missed games healthy. Enjoy your break.

(Oh, and Scott? Just in case you're looking for some non-paying employment to occupy your free time for a bit, don't forget we're always on the lookout for more Conn Smythe winning writers here at BoC!)

-----------------------
Aside to the fans: I've heard lots of grumbling that Scott is holding the Ducks hostage with his indecision, and sure there's $6.75 M of salary sitting in limbo, but I'm not worried. Brian Burke has kept the cap space available for a return, and can surely he can find a way to motivate Scott to play, if things get desperate.

Don't forget that he has one key bargaining chip at his disposal:


Scott, if you ever want to see Rob's famousbackhand again, you'll rejoin the team ASAP.
See ya soon! -- B. B.
p.s. A very happy birthday to our blogdaddy, the ever-awesome Battle of Alberta. So many awesome posts, but I just gotta link to two of my personal faves: Beard Talk and its sequel The Many Faces of Sacamano. Great work, guys.

Season (P)Review: Jack Johnson

Stay out of the way and don't do anything stupid.

Season (P)Review: Dan Cloutier

Last Season: 6-14-2, 3.98 GAA, .860 SV%

Gutteral Noise That Best Describes His Season: Argh.

(I’m going to do my best to be rational and calm about this. Deep breath…)

Dan Cloutier was not good last year. In fact, some of the more hot-headed among us might describe him as a “miserable sac that deserves to die.” (Easy…) He had terrible positioning, he couldn’t get down into a butterfly in less than 3 seconds (he looked like a 70 year-old trying to do pilates), and he basically ruined my life because he sucks and is probably a pedophile. (Count to ten…1, 2, 3…) He finally ended his season in the end of December with a hip injury brought about by extreme shame BUT NOT BEFORE HE RUINED THE ENTIRE SEASON, LEARN HOW TO STOP THE PUCK YOU MISERABLE BASTARD GOD DAMMIT I WANT TO PUNT YOU! (Okay, I need to go take a walk and pet a dog or something. I’ll be right back.)

Jesus, he doesn't even know where the net is...

Okay, I’m better now. Despite Cloutier’s… lackluster season, I still have some hope for this year. The Kings were 29th in save percentage last season, 26th in penalty kills, and 27th in total goals against. That’s not good. However, the defense is greatly improved this season and if the Kings can get even adequate goaltending, they’re looking at a significant improvement in team defense. If it’s Cloutier, then great. If it’s LaBarbera, then that’s cool too. If it’s neither…well, then were probably screwed.

Cloutier had a bad year and I doubt he’s happy about it. By all accounts he’s a good guy and seems like he wants to help the team. I can’t help what other Kings’ fans do, but I am personally going to give him a pass for last season. I’m feeling optimistic; maybe he was injured all last year and this year he’ll play like he has in the past (2.8 GAA, .9 SV%). If he played like he did last year, though, then I’m all for giving him a blanket party. I’ll bring the soap.

Season (P)Review: Raitis Ivanans

Like most Kings fans, I was pretty bummed when George Parros lost his job to Raitis Ivanans last year. I had grown to love our Princeton pugilist over the previous season in spite of his ineptitude and lack of balance and I doubted some Latvian could possibly replace him. I soon forgot all about Parros, though, when I saw this picture:

Dear God, is that his bicep???

I grew to appreciate Ivanans’ “skills” more and more as the season went on, and I am ultimately glad Parros is gone. There are 3 main reasons I think Ivanans is better than Parros:

1) Ivanans is a better fighter. Parros falls too much. I think that’s something everyone can agree on. Every Parros fight you’ll see will go as follows: Parros throws the other guy around, misses a punch and then falls down. Ivanans, on the other hand, is incredibly strong on his skates. (I think it’s because he’s 6’3” and weighs like 600 pounds.) The two fought once last season; it would have been a good fight, but Parros kept falling down. He’s like a grizzly bear trying to play hockey out there.

2) Ivanans is better at the sport of hockey. Of course, that’s like saying that he’s better looking than a platypus; well, yeah, everyone is. Parros trying to play hockey is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve ever seen. Last year, Parros had 1 goal in 32 games, and I’m pretty sure he was trying to punch someone at the time. Shouldn’t you accidentally get an assist in 32 games? I mean, he got outscored by J.S. Giguere! Ivanans is not a good hockey player, but he isn’t that slow and he can do some damage in front of the net. He had 8 points in 64 games; not good, but better than Parros.

You look ridiculous.

3) Ivanans is scarier. Parros is awesome, but I don’t think anyone is afraid of him. (Well, I guess Chaetophobics would be.) He’s an Ivy League grad with a ridiculous moustache; he’s not scary, he’s a foil from Revenge of the Nerds. Raitis Ivanans is from Latvia, and if my American education has taught me anything, it’s that people from Latvia are bloodthirsty monsters. The guy probably ate shoes growing up, you think he’s above gouging an eye? Look into his eyes when he’s out on the ice. I did once and I found out how I was going to die. (I now avoid the proctologist at all costs. I’m not really comfortable talking about it, actually.)

Ivanans, spotting a particularly tasty shoe.

Ivanans will probably play a little less than he did last year, but I still see him getting about 40 games and a bushel of penalty minutes. He and Scott Thornton are our only real fighting threats out there now and they’re going to have to protect the Kings’ best players from the barbarian horde over there in Anaheim. Parros is cool, but he’s ultimately just a gimmick; I’m happy with our enforcer.

Season (P)Review: Ladislav Nagy

Ladislav Nagy is like a moustache.

You know how every once in a while a friend of yours will decide to grow a moustache? You think it's a terrible idea but you can't really say anything because you know that you'll eventually try to grow one too. Then it'll start to get all straggly but your buddy will think that if he just lets it grow out a little it'll be better, but it doesn't and then he finally just has to shave it off? That’s Ladislav Nagy. Other NHL moustaches include Dean McAmmond, Brian Smolinski, and Mike Comrie, to name a few.

I swear, if I let it grow a little bit...

So far Nagy has been with the Blues, the Coyotes and the Stars (briefly). As far as I can tell, they ultimately decided that he didn’t look good on them and shaved him off. Now it’s the King’s turn. Nagy’s only signed on for this season (albeit a little overpaid at $3.75 mil) and hopefully he will be a positive at the end of the season. What I’m afraid of is that he’ll show just enough to warrant another contract when I don’t really see him ever reaching his potential.

I get the feeling Nagy will end up with 50 points; either he’ll play 80 games and be relatively lackluster, or he’ll play great for 50 games and then get hurt. That’s the problem with guys like him (and also the problem with moustaches): they never look quite as good in reality as they do on paper.

(Next Up: Raitis Ivanans.)

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

Well, my world is officially crashing apart.

Ducks forward Samuel Pahlsson will miss 3 to 5 weeks with a sports hernia, Anaheim Executive Vice President/General Manager Brian Burke told media Thursday.

"Sammy went through abdominal pain throughout the playoffs, but the recommendation was rest....We anticipate if he misses any regular season time, it will not be a lot."

Pahlsson hasn't missed a game since 2003, playing in 275 straight regular season games and 58 straight playoff games, plus some international play to boot.

Now regular or even passing readers know my fascination with Pahlsson, but personal grieving aside, this whole situation is starting to look awfully fishy. For various reasons, some key players from the SC Finals are looking to miss the start of the season (which coincidentally starts with a pair of transatlantic flights):

• Sammy Pahlsson, Selke finalist and shut-down center, hernia surgery


• J.S. Giguere, cup-winning goaltender, hernia surgery (same surgeon)


• Scott Niedermayer, Conn Smythe winner and Norris finalist, contemplating retirement


• Teemu Selanne, scoring leader and top-line winger, contemplating retirement


• Dustin Penner, high-scoring rookie, priced himself out of town


• Chris Phillips, cup-winning-goal scorer, turns out he wasn't on our team in the first place

Maybe I'm being too skeptical here, but that seems like a lot of players conveniently finding themselves unavailable for England. But don't worry, Brits! So far as I know, all the main attractions are slated to go.

Anyways, get well soon, Sammy. Prediction: Pahlsson 1, hernia 0.

Season (P)Review: Anze Kopitar

Last Season: 20 G, 41 A, 24 PIM, -12, 20:31 Avg. TOI

Word That Best Describes His Season: Euphoric.

Kop-i-tar! Kop-i-tar!

Anze Kopitar is a personal hero of mine. He’s one of the craziest players I’ve ever seen; he does something at least once a game that I never would have expected. The other guys that do that, off the top of my head? Joe Thornton, Scott Niedermayer, Alexander Ovechkin, Pavel Datsyuk. Now, I’m not by any means implying that Kopitar is as good as any of those players, but they’re all alike in that they are incredibly unique. A guy like Chris Drury will go to work and get his points, but he doesn’t really inspire you. He doesn’t make you say, “Holy fuck!” Seeing guys like Thornton or Ovechkin or Kopitar play is like going to church for me. I mean, watch this play:

I don’t know about you, but I’m inspired. And a little aroused. (Also, I love Jimmy when he gets excited.)

All that being said, I’m a little worried about Kopitar going into this season. He had such an amazing season last year that I think people may be expecting a little much from him. Kopitar was aided last season by the fact that he was on the 2^nd line, meaning that he did not have to deal with the opposing team’s best defensive pairing. Teams began focusing on him later in the season, but he got hurt so we never really go to see those effects. I’m very interested in seeing how he reacts to that.

Of course, that may not affect him that much because of the way he plays. Kopitar did not necessarily make his linemates better (Brown played with him all year and only had 46 points). Instead, he utilized his defensemen to score goals. Going up against a guy like Niedermayer won’t really bother him; it’s the guys like Pahlsson, who get back and cover the trailing defensemen, who will give him trouble.

I don’t really have a solid reason for my pessimism of Kopitar; maybe it’s just a backlash against everyone else’s unceasing optimism. I mean, I hope he does well. I guess I’m just worried because there’s really no way of knowing what to expect of him until we know what line he’s playing on. If he does struggle, though, then I hope people will give him a break; despite appearances, he’s only human.

(Next Up: Ladislav Nagy.)

The Never-Ending Story: Indecisionmayer

Well, more on Niedergate: the wavering one has called a press conference for 10:30 am this morning, but word on the internet is that he will essentially tell us nothing. Per the OC Register, Scott will miss the start of training camp, but other than that his future is no more clear than it was in June: “Maybe I’ll be in camp in a week, or for that matter, I could never put on skates again.”

And while Ducks fans and non-Ducks fans alike fret and stew and wonder and wait, I gotta side with Brian Burke on this issue: "I think there's a misperception out there that this is somehow inconveniencing us. And it's not. We want this player to return. The phone call we don't want is that he's going to retire. The fact he's undecided and this might stretch into the start of the year, this is not a crisis mode for us. This is good news. Because it means he hasn't made the one phone call we don't want him to make."

This Globe & Mail piece lays out the salary options on Niedermayer pretty well: so long as there's no 'agreement' with Niedermayer as to the timing of his possible return, the Ducks can suspend Niedermayer for missing camp, and however long Scott stays out, his $6.75 M salary will not have to be paid nor will it count against the salary cap.

If anything meaningful is said during the press conference, I will add it to this post. In the meantime, though, here's three takeaway thoughts:

• The Ducks, by signing Schneidermayer and bringing back the rest of the blueliners, are more equipped to replace Scott Niedermayer's minutes than they are to replace Teemu Selanne's and Dustin Penner's minutes. Prolonging Scott's decision is not a huge on-ice hurdle (see some stats numbers here), and I'm sure other teams would kill to have Anaheim's "problems".



• If Scott does return to the team at some point this season and the team manages to retain Schneidermayer, then the Ducks would boast a top-four of Pronger, Niedermayer, Schneider, and Beauchemin. The particularly tempting thing about this blueline setup is this thought: wouldn't it make sense to make Niedermayer-Pronger a regular blueline pair, just like we saw dominate the cup finals?



• Probably the most-overlooked good news here is that there is no grumbling coming from the Pronger camp; he's a guy with a bigger history of not honoring contracts. While it is weird to think that Anaheim's next captain may be the recipient of the NHL's two most recent suspensions, it's very comforting to know he's not ditching the team for greener pastures.

So yeah, this non-news isn't troubling me as much as maybe it should, but your reactions are welcome in the comments.

Season (P)Review: Alex Frolov

Last Season: 35 G, 36 A, 34 PIM, -8, 19:56 Avg. TOI

Word That Best Describes His Season: Frustrating.


Alex Frolov can be very frustrating if you’re a Kings fan. Sure, he’s one of our best players and a promising young talent, but he can be so quiet for long stretches at a time that you forget he’s on the team. I feel bad for him sometimes because I get the feeling that Kings fans spend too much time criticizing him for what he doesn’t do instead of focusing on what he does do well. Let’s take a look at the common criticisms of Frolov and see how they hold up:

Look, he doesn't even move his feet in practice!

He’s slow. This one has always bothered me, because it’s never seemed the least bit true. I will admit that he looks slow, but that’s only because of his skating style. He has a very economical skating motion and I think that tricks a lot of people into thinking he’s slow. Many Kings fans thought Sean Avery was fast, but that’s only because he moved his legs like a mad man; when Frolov and Avery played on the same line, it was obvious that Frolov was faster. One of my favorite Frolov moments from last year was this one:

Did you notice the defenseman he beat to the net? Maybe that’s the moment when Niedermayer decided to hang it up.

He’s inconsistent. This one is probably the complaint that holds the most water. Last season, Alex tallied 43 points in the first 41 games; in the last 41, he scored only 28. One cause might have been the fact that Frolov played in all 82 games last season. (It’s sad, but this is the only time I can remember where he didn’t get the flu. He’s like a baby, or an old person.) I actually think that might have hurt him a little bit. He seems like a guy who might need to be rested occasionally in order to keep him fresh (like J.D. Drew). They do this all the time with goaltenders and I’m not sure why they don’t do it with skaters.

He doesn’t shoot enough. I hear this all the time. Frolov does have a good shot, but he seems to prefer to hold the puck in the corner for long stretches of time and then make a wrap-around attempt that never works. I hate this play too; honestly, it annoys the fuck out of me. Still, though, Frolov scored 35 goals last year and had the 11th best shot percentage in the NHL. I think the reason his shot percentage is so good is a result of his selectiveness. While I do think Frolov should shoot more (he probably should play more in the center of the ice in general), I’d much rather take a guy like Frolov over a guy who constantly takes off-wing shots from behind the face-off circle. (Brownie points if you know who I’m talking about. Hint: his name is Sean Avery. I think he's the anti-Frolov.)

Sean Avery, the A-Fro.

He hasn’t progressed fast enough. Frolov entered the NHL in 2002 when he was 20 years old. He’s played in 4 NHL seasons and has increased his point total every season. I think one problem many people have is that they expect players to explode overnight, like Kopitar or Crosby. A much more typical story is one like Lubomir Visnosvky’s, where they struggle to adjust and then eventually find what works for them. Visnovsky took 4 seasons before he finally broke through; if Frolov follows this pattern, he should make a big leap this season.

Frolov may never what Kings’ fans ask of him, but I think what they’re asking is a little unrealistic. Maybe we should be focusing on what does do well instead of what he doesn’t. He’s under contract for the next 3 seasons at a very cap-friendly rate ($3 mil this year, $3.5 the next and $4 in two years) and he will again be one of our best forwards this season. He may never be the player we want him to be, but the player he is can be pretty damn good.

(This is neither here nor there, but Frolov apparently has a Myspace page. Under “Heroes,” it says, “My wife. Just Kidding.” I don’t know why, but it made me laugh.)

#97 Jeremy Roenick puts fans in the seats, and goalies on the street

The San Jose Sharks signed flamboyant center Jermey Roenick to a 1-year contract on Tuesday morning. Following offseason extensions given to Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Milan Michalek and Craig Rivet, Roenick will be a veteran cog added to the mix on the ice, and he will supply an avalanche of quotable material off of it. The 9-time NHL allstar scored 11 goals and 17 assists in 70 games played for the Phoenix Coyotes last season.

"That was a very true feeling in my body and soul about retiring and I kind of lost a little luster for the game for the last couple years. Then I got a phone call from Doug Wilson. Immediately, from a phone call from a guy that I respect and probably one of the most respected guys that I've ever played with, my electricity and energy came back. When you love to play the game and a team (of this nature) comes along, it is very easy to get excited and motivated" Roenick told SJsharks.com.

A look at how the San Jose Sharks line combinations are shaking out at this point in the offseason. If I missed someone or stuck them in the wrong spot, feel free to flame me in the comments. Earl uncerimoniously deleted the first version of this post with his post-Stanley Cup hubris.

FORWARDS:
Michalek-Thornton-Cheechoo
Clowe-Marleau-Bernier
Rissmiller-Brown-Grier
Roenick-Goc-Pavelski-Setoguchi

DEFENSE:
McLaren-Ehrhoff
Vlasic-Rivet
Carle-Davison
Murray

GOALIES:
Nabokov
Patzold-Greiss-Dakers

IN THE MIX:
Plihal-Kaspar-Semenov-Wishart

[Update] More Roenick video highlights from Puck Monkey here.

[Update2] Roenick signs free-agent contract with Sharks - ESPN.

The Hockey News Is Ridiculous

I got my copy of The Hockey News that listed the top 50 players in the NHL. Lubomir Visnovsky was not one of them. They had 8 defensemen listed: Lidstrom, Pronger, Phaneuf (17th!), Kaberle, Chara, Gonchar, Boyle, and Schneider. If you do not think that Lubomir Visnovsky is better than at least one of those players, you are an idiot.

Oh, and Sharks fans: they didn't have Patrick Marleau on there either.

The joke that Ducks messageboard moderators don't want you to read

I was lurking on Ducks messageboards last week, trying to get a handle on retirement rumors, when some user started a new thread with a Kings-Ducks joke. I copied it to e-mail it to one of my friends, but when I went back to link to it, moderators had already pulled the thread. I don't know who to credit this joke to, but it's BoC-themed enough; maybe this helps set the stage for London later this month.

One foggy night a Kings fan was heading south and a Ducks fan was driving north. While crossing a narrow bridge they hit each other head-on, mangling both cars.

The Kings fan manages to climb out of his car and survey the damage. He looks at his twisted car and says, "Man, I'm lucky to be alive". Likewise, the Ducks fan gets out of his car uninjured, he too, feeling fortunate to have survived.

The Duck fan walks over to the Kings fan and says, "Hey, man, I think this is a sign that we should put away our petty differences and live as friends instead of being rivals."

The Kings fan thinks for a moment and says, "You know, you're absolutely right! We should be friends. In fact, I'm going to see if something else survived the wreck." The Kings fan then pops open the trunk of his car and removes a full undamaged bottle of Jameson's Irish whiskey and a 6-pack of Guinness. He says to the Ducks fan, "I think this is another sign that we should toast to our newfound friendship."

The Ducks fan agrees and grabs the bottle of Jamesons. After sucking down half of the bottle, the Ducks fan hands the bottle back to the Kings fan and says, "Your turn".

The Kings fan calmly twists the cap back on the bottle, throws the rest of the bottle and the Guinness over the bridge into the river and says, "Nah, I think I'll just wait for the cops to show up."

Season (P)Review: Rob Blake

Last Season: 12 G, 20 A, 82 PIM, -26, 24:24 Avg. TOI

Word That Best Describes His Season: Cathartic.

I was pretty pissed when Rob Blake left the Kings. He was the captain, the face, and the best player for my team, and I felt that he owed us more than we were given. I now look back and find that position a little ridiculous as I’ve become more jaded to the financial workings of professional sports, but I felt then that he had personally kicked me in the balls. The playoffs that year (when Blake and the Avalanche defeated the Kings in 7 games and went on to win the Stanley Cup) sealed the betrayal and I became a card-carrying member of the “I Hate Blake” Club. (I was the secretary. Here's some notes from one meeting: "So, does everyone still hate Blake?" "Yeah, that guy sucks!" "Alright, meeting adjourned!")

What a surprise, Blake's holding someone.

My brother Nick, on the other hand, stayed firmly in Blake’s corner through the ordeal. I think he took the fan’s booing of Blake harder than Blake himself. Blake is his Conroy/Hrudey/Pahlsson all rolled into one (but Blake's actually good) and I constantly had to listen to his arguments why Blake was still awesome and King’s fans were dumb. I know he was pretty stoked when he found out Blake was coming back; he acted like Omarion after they won the big dance-off in You Got Served when he found out (in that he was all excited but everyone else thought he was kind of gay and embarrassing).

Nick, please, there's no need to get that excited.

When I found out Blake was coming back this off-season, I expected to be either ecstatic or pissed, but instead I was apathetic. I didn’t really care too much about Blake one way or the other anymore. Even as the season went on, I didn’t get too emotional about his play. I mean, I liked when he was in front of the net on the power play (there is not a person in the NHL who can move him) and I laughed when he cross-checked yet another guy in the back on the penalty kill. I also hated that he was so slow now and seemed a little out of place in the “New NHL.” Overall, though, if you asked me my general impression of his season, I’d have to throw my arms up and say, “I don’t fuckin’ know.” Then you’d be like, “I didn’t know people literally threw their arms up in the air when they were frustrated,” and I’d punch you in the mouth, you snide fuck.

I guess my feelings on Blake are so confused because I constantly try to view his contributions to the team through actual play, and his signing was never about that. If he makes the team better, great, but he’s really more important than that. Signing Blake was about making him feel at home in a place where we probably treated him unfairly because we expected him to love us as much as we loved him. That’s unreasonable to ask of any professional athlete. The booing of Blake was a dark period in King’s history (and for me) and I like to think that his signing healed that a little.

Boo!!!... sorry, habit.

Blake will probably be the captain this season and an important special teams player on defense. I’d like to see him play a little more stay-at-home defense because he’s not quite quick enough to get back in position like he used to. In the clubhouse, blah blah blah motivational leader and important mentor to young defensemen who apparently didn't have dads blah blah blah. With Visnovsky, Preissing, and Johnson, the Kings have enough offensive talent; what they need is a rock-solid defenseman in the Matty Norstrom mold. If Blake can change his game a little, I think he can extend his career a few more years.

I’m still conflicted on Blake (as you can probably tell by the rambling screed above). Is he worth $6 million this year for his play? No, not at all. But if signing Blake heals a fan base, makes a player feel welcome, and ensures that he will enter the Hall of Fame as a King, I'm okay with it. If goes in as an Avalanche, though... well, I know exactly how I'd feel about that.

(Next Up: Alex Frolov)